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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Posted (edited)
  On 4/20/2020 at 6:07 PM, dcar00 said:

https://www.localmemphis.com/article/news/health/health-alert/verify-headlines-comparing-the-coronavirus-to-spanish-flu-are-missing-context/522-e49808da-ddca-486c-b05a-8966e61a760c

here's an article where they talk to ferguson about spanish flu and covid. he talks about spanish flu being  approx 2% for US and UK per scientific papers.

he says the estimate is that in 1918 25-33% of UK had spanish flu and 230K died.  meaning 9.5M to 12.5M had it.  1.8 to 2.4% death rate.

if you take 33% of UK pop today about 67M you get 22.3M. multiply that by 2% IFR you get 447K.  His model showed 510K for UK.

for consistencies sake, 100M in US in 1918, CDC considers 1/3rd of pop got it.  33M * 2% = 660K  estiamted was 675K

estimated US pop today 330M  33% is 110M *2% is 2.2M

Yes his model number for UK shows to be approx 12% higher but IMO, the magnitude of the numbers being similar aren't coincidences at all.

I am not saying he said 510K or 2.2M would die but he put a model out giving those kinds of numbers as a very worst case scenario when there was no way that was going to happen.

 

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(1) the continued allegations that the Imperial College didn't do the work it laid out in great detail are baseless and ridiculous. There is no reason for them to falsify that work. 

(2) The report on Covid-19 didn't even use the IFR's your referencing. It used half of that (~1%). 

(3) The report was explicit on what it was doing (laying out scenarios) and that the "no action" number wasn't likely to happen. That you misunderstood that is all on you. 

Seriously, there are real criticisms you can lay to any of the earlier estimates. Whackadoo conspiracy theory nonsense isn't it.

Edited by Dahobbs
  • Like 5
Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 3:53 PM, Loco said:

You mention freedom...  we don't have the "freedom" to do a lot of things in the name of public health.  Some entities drive a narrative that some group of individuals WANTS the US to have restrictions like these in place for no reason.   No one wants them, but they are warranted.   So that yowling bitch's impotent rage is the real issue... she clearly has mental health issues, and if they weren't focused on Covid-19 health protocols, you could be sure they would be focused on something similarly "terrible".

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I imagine people like that were around when they implemented car seats for kids, seatbelts, DUI laws, minimum driving ages, etc.   

If she was aware that numerous entities, from the city/county level up to the federal level, were buying cell phone tower data to measure social distancing, etc. she would probably still hold on to her smartphone.  Gotta be able to complain on Facebook.  

For some of these people, it’s not going to hit home unless Ma or Pa gets it and they don’t get to hold their hand or look in their eyes as they are dying.   

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 6:14 PM, Homercles said:

I know Travis county was but not sure Williamson.  No one asked me anything and I didn’t see signs, but I had one on. 

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HEB posted it as their policy statewide. I'd be letting them know stores aren't following it. 

Posted

Livestock update, cattle held at about 75% of capacity with Tyson-Dakota City out today and tomorrow, but hopefully just those two day. Hogs were about 70% as well, but better than a week ago, with still no news on restarting Sioux Falls, and Worthington down indefinitly as well. The big back up in hogs is going to be in NE NE, NC Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. You get further south and plants are holding up better. Starting to see poultry issues in the South too. 

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 6:38 PM, atomheartbevo said:

State parks are open.  Day use only.   Masks required

https://tpwd.texas.gov/state-parks/

  • Wear face coverings at all times.
  • Maintain a six-foot social distance from people not in your group.
  • Gather in groups of no more than five people (even for family groups).
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So if you've got 4 kids, well... sorry little Jimmy, you have to stay over there by the rattlesnake weeds.

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Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 4:06 PM, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

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Maybe it's different there, but out here people are, in large part, staying home.  Again, no everyone, but enough of them that it is making a huge difference.  And the stats bear that out.

Posted (edited)
Daily Johns Hopkins Update:
 
  Reveal hidden contents
Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Posted

Hard to see JBS in Worthington shut down. Seemed that they tried to social distance in the plant after the Smithfield fiasco in Sioux Falls, but it's now officially a hot spot. MDH commissioner said that language difficulties played a part in the slow investigations. 

Of the 41 cases in Nobles County interviewed on Saturday, 39 of them were either plant employees or their families. 

Ive seen a few shared posts on Facebook where pork producers that did have hogs going to either Worthington or Sioux Falls are now working with local locker plants to direct-sell quarters and halves. By the looks of it, there were plenty of buyers. Not great but better than nothing. 

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 4:49 PM, Royalfan5 said:

On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall. 

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Well, I did my part this weekend to keep bacon demand high.

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 7:15 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Buddy is a huge Djoker fan...he was devastated by this news.  No really, he was not happy.  Also Novak's wife is a 5g nutter too.  Very cool. 

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Even intelligent people can believe some straight up nutty shit. It's weird.

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 6:56 PM, ChiTownDoc said:
Daily Johns Hopkins Update:
 
  Reveal hidden contents
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New forms?  Micro needles?  
spacer.png

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Posted

Interesting data from an Ohio prison where everyone was tested:  73% of inmates are infected, 2% hospitalized,, and zero deaths (so far.)  109 employees infected, of those 1 death and 8 recovered so far.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/DRCCOVID-19Information.pdf

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

...As of Sunday, 1,828 Marion Correctional inmates have tested positive, along with 109 staff members. Of the 1,828 cases, 38 are currently receiving outside hospital level care, according to an Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction spokesperson.

There are approximately 2,500 inmates in the Marion Correctional Institution.

One staff death was announced on April 8, corrections officer John Dawson. No inmates at Marion Correctional have died.

According to the ODRC, mass testing has been instituted at Marion Correctional, as well as Pickaway Correctional and the Franklin Medical Center.

“Because we are testing everyone – including those who are not showing symptoms – we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,” ODRC said in its daily release of information.

Individuals who test positive are placed in an area of the facility which is separate from the general population, ODRC’s statement said.... 

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 8:15 PM, clapclapclap said:

Interesting data from an Ohio prison where everyone was tested:  73% of inmates are infected, 2% hospitalized,, and zero deaths (so far.)  109 employees infected, of those 1 death and 8 recovered so far.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/DRCCOVID-19Information.pdf

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

...As of Sunday, 1,828 Marion Correctional inmates have tested positive, along with 109 staff members. Of the 1,828 cases, 38 are currently receiving outside hospital level care, according to an Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction spokesperson.

There are approximately 2,500 inmates in the Marion Correctional Institution.

One staff death was announced on April 8, corrections officer John Dawson. No inmates at Marion Correctional have died.

According to the ODRC, mass testing has been instituted at Marion Correctional, as well as Pickaway Correctional and the Franklin Medical Center.

“Because we are testing everyone – including those who are not showing symptoms – we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,” ODRC said in its daily release of information.

Individuals who test positive are placed in an area of the facility which is separate from the general population, ODRC’s statement said.... 

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If 1 more person dies then it’s 0.1% fatality, correct?

Isnt that in line with what’s being reported everywhere?

Yes I do realize that what I’m saying is a 100% increase in fatalities... but Idk if this is really saying much in regards to the disease.

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 6:14 PM, Dahobbs said:

(1) the continued allegations that the Imperial College didn't do the work it laid out in great detail are baseless and ridiculous. There is no reason for them to falsify that work. 

(2) The report on Covid-19 didn't even use the IFR's your referencing. It used half of that (~1%). 

(3) The report was explicit on what it was doing (laying out scenarios) and that the "no action" number wasn't likely to happen. That you misunderstood that is all on you. 

Seriously, there are real criticisms you can lay to any of the earlier estimates. Whackadoo conspiracy theory nonsense isn't it.

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Oh I agree they did the work.  I didn't misunderstand anything.  The 2.2M number was bullshit based on using default values, getting an R0 of 2.4(adjusted for what they felt was a problem with natural historical parameters, again an estimate based on other estimates) and 81% of gen pop infected(really?) and an approx .9x% IFR.  I believe the China number was .66% in the report you referenced.  why didn't they use that?

The report had no basis in reality and was bunk from the get go.

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 2:19 PM, Iceman said:

That part is absolutely real.  The shutdown of commerce and businesses is indisputable. You are positing that everyone is toeing the line and staying away from one another, because it sure as fuck isn’t what I’m seeing, nor is it what my counterparts  who work in the public are experiencing either.

It’s a fucking shell game, at best; with regard to folks abiding by the prescribed tactics.  

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The man has “counterparts that work in the public”.  And he said “fuck” twice.  I think we should listen to him.

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Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 7:15 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Buddy is a huge Djoker fan...he was devastated by this news.  No really, he was not happy.  Also Novak's wife is a 5g nutter too.  Very cool. 

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I remember him going on his huge tear once he went completely gluten-free.

Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 8:53 PM, Snake Diggity said:

The man has “counterparts that work in the public”.  And he said “fuck” twice.  I think we should listen to him.

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I mean, I get it.  I understand his frustration.

When a lot of us-- the large majority of us I'd say-- are taking it seriously and doing our best to comply, at varying degrees of personal cost up to and including losing jobs, I understand feeling angry at the jackasses that are blowing it off and trying to get one over on the government or the public or just being generally self-centered and self-serving asswipes.  It makes me angry too.

But that doesn't mean the sacrifices aren't helping, even though the exact amount of help is impossible ever to know for sure.   

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 4/20/2020 at 8:33 PM, Js1 said:

Looks like Georgia is the major reopening test case 

 

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The GA governor was the one who, until around April 1, didn't know asymptomatic people could spread the virus, right?  Doubling down on the stupid I guess.

  • Like 6
Posted

All the reopening talk begs the question of how flat the curve has to be to reopen. I am sure the medical experts would say no new cases but I dont think that is realistic when you have a potential depression on your hands. 

The fact that Texas and Florida seem to have so few problems suggest that maybe warm weather is going to be a factor. 

I think we are going to be pretty much opened up in the next 60 days all over the country no matter what. 

We are going to reopen with some degree of risk. How much is the question. 

 

 



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