Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14,323]

13 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

Yes, 61k is an estimate. That range being 46k to 95k. Let's look at more accurate info like actual reported flu deaths to compare apples against apples.

 

Whoops, only around 15k in 2017-2018. So yes, the CDC uses an estimate to try and capture undocumented flu deaths but the high end of the range they post is absolute worst case scenario shit which is not at all accurate. Not to mention you're cherry picking 1 year out of 10. Even the high end, inaccurate range doesn't hold up in your argument for the other 9 years.  Nevermind that we've been under SIP compared to no restrictions with flu. I'd love to hear your thoughts on what you think COVID cases/deaths would look like today if we had just continued on like we do every flu season and not done any SIP.

 

BTW, while it's factually correct to say we've had covid deaths in the US for 3 months, 99.99% of them have occurred in the last 2 months so let's just call it 2 months...

 

 

 

This must be what it's like to argue with flat earthers and chem trail people.

 

 

So I'm right again.   thanks.

[Trey3216 15,351]

39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The economy > people’s lives. Even though many of us on this site are white collar, still working, unaffected because we can WFH, this “but the economy” argument has a hidden agenda. 

And it’s not because “they care” about the underclass of citizens in retail, hospitality, food service, etc.  out of work. It’s their 401k, it’s bc they can’t travel for funsies and it’s political reasons. 

That’s the most jaded, chicken-shit, limp dicked response I’ve read on here in quite a while.  You should be proud of your lack of logic, reason, and nuance.   

[Hmbre97 6,329]

So I'm right again.   thanks.

 

.

 

 

[dcar00 14,323]

Per the science guys we are ready to start opening up.  NY/NJ/Mich need to stay closed.  the rest of the country needs to get moving.  people will die(maybe even me or someone I know).  It sucks but thats where we are.

[dcar00 14,323]

2 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

 

.

 

 

I'm sure you see how the CDC estimates things.   its all estimations on estimations with wide ass ranges.  why would they have to estimate flu deaths in this day and age of constant connection and instant information?  shouldn't it be obvious and easy to track in the US?  

they extrapolated 3.4K state confirmed H1N1 deaths into 4-5x as many.  how does that happen when there were plenty of tests available to test H1N1?

[Hmbre97 6,329]

I'm sure you see how the CDC estimates things.   its all estimations on estimations with wide ass ranges.  why would they have to estimate flu deaths in this day and age of constant connection and instant information?  shouldn't it be obvious and easy to track in the US?  

they extrapolated 3.4K state confirmed H1N1 deaths into 4-5x as many.  how does that happen when there were plenty of tests available to test H1N1?

So what's your argument then? I posted a chart showing 15k actual flu deaths vs 65k actual COVID deaths? That still shows COVID as being much deadlier than the flu. In what universe are you trying to say that proves you right?

 

Is it opposite day and I wasn't informed?

[GHOSTUSER 361]

18 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Yea, it’s a small island the size of Colorado but much more isolated. What’s your fucking point?

We all know what his point is. She is a star for those wanting statist control.

[DDD Dad 14,346]

We all know what his point is. She is a star for those wanting statist control.

Take it to the fucking CR.

[Pato del Muerto 52,553]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

A clear and complete end to proclamations  extending stay at home into the summer. 

A more robust opening  (50 or 75% capacity everywhere) than what we have now in Texas- but that’s my preference- I have no real problem waiting until May 18 and seeing what happens how we are doing it right now  

But mainly what I want is a conversation about what we are trying to accomplish out of all this and metrics guiding how we deal with things going forward so there’s a sense that this is being rationally thought out to be as narrowly tailored as possible,  not at the whim of what some government functionary, who is immune from the economic devastation this thing is bringing, decides is for my own good  

 

Gotcha. Bad news:  the government doesn’t like being held accountable because it can hurt reelection chances. Definitive statements are too polarizing and tougher to walk back. So metrics and goals are the enemy. Spurious, nebulous, ethereal statements are what you will get, or buck passing from federal to state, state to county, county to city. 
with a few exceptions I’m sure. 
 

little league coach wants to practice but we are under orders to have no groups of 10!or more. So he wants to do split practices. 
Depending on what side you fall on this, you could ask why 9 is ok but 15 isn’t, or why 15 is bad but 9 is ok. Meanwhile, the person that gave the order is just doing something so he isn’t accused of doing nothing if things get bad. There was no in depth analysis to determine 10 is the line.

officials are trying to stay in the channel when they can’t even see the buoys. 
 

needed to take these last 6-8 weeks to ramp up testing, so we would be more informed about how widespread this thing is, then make decisions. The SIP shouldn’t have been the solution.  Do we know if there’s any reason that Austin, Dallas, St. Louis, San Diego, and others won’t end up like ny and Michigan in 4 weeks if we lift restrictions?  What do we know now that we didn’t know in mid March that clarifies our position?

[Dahobbs 17,635]

31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm sure you see how the CDC estimates things.   its all estimations on estimations with wide ass ranges.  why would they have to estimate flu deaths in this day and age of constant connection and instant information?  shouldn't it be obvious and easy to track in the US?  

they extrapolated 3.4K state confirmed H1N1 deaths into 4-5x as many.  how does that happen when there were plenty of tests available to test H1N1?

Dude, we estimate the flu because not every single case gets diagnosed by a doctor. It simply isn't necessary to call a healthcare professional the vast vast majority of the time. Thus, there is no magic data to pull from to get an accurate count of how many people had the flu. The best we can do is get an informed and statistically sound estimate. The same is true with sars-cov-2. Math and epidemiology are your friends; stop hating on them. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Bevo 13,593]

Just came across the following on Nextdoor. While rtPCR currently is best for identification of active infections, I don't agree with all of the conclusions because rtPCR has its own issues.

Public Information Office, Austin-Travis County Emergency Medical ServicesAgency

 

Antibody Testing information from ATCEMS Office of the Medical Director

Yesterday the Office Of The Medical Director - City Of Austin-Travis County issued a joint statement to our Public Safety community regarding antibody testing. Here are some highlights: - Tests could theoretically identify people who have recovered from COVID-19, and may have developed immunity to the virus. - Of the approximately 90 antibody tests on the market, very few have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA. - Some of these tests have been found to be very inaccurate, giving false negative, as well as false positive results in people that have never had it. - Tests may falsely indicate antibodies to COVID-19 when in reality, the patient has antibodies to another coronavirus. The estimated community prevalence in Austin is just 1% of the population, meaning that we’d have to run about 600 tests, to find 1 true positive. The Office Of The Medical Director - City Of Austin-Travis County IS NOT recommending these tests for our Public Safety community until further evaluation of these tests have been done. An antibody test is NOT a good screen for current or recent infection. Acute infection can only be diagnosed by a polymerise chain reaction (PCR) test, which is the current gold standard for COVID-19 detection, and what is being used at all Austin Public Health testing sites. A positive result from an antibody tests does NOT mean you are immune to COVID-19 and should NOT lead you to take fewer precautions to avoid contracting it, or spreading the virus to your families or the public. If you have ANY symptom that suggests COVID-19, you may enroll for testing via the Public Enrollment Tool at COVID19.AustinTexas.gov.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Bevo

[dcar00 14,323]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

There’s still so much shoddy testing you probably won’t see this put on blast.  But I’ve said it from the very start.  In the current season/next several months having actual antibodies definitely should confer immunity in those who are not immunocompromised.  

apparently we are being told here in Austin that anitbody testing doesn't mean you are immune.  seems like someone positive for antibodies still needs to follow all the rules as if they can get it or can spread it.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

apparently we are being told here in Austin that anitbody testing doesn't mean you are immune.  seems like someone positive for antibodies still needs to follow all the rules as if they can get it or can spread it.

Yes, I’m assuming because of the quality of testing.  Someone posted upthread just today that a group is scientists agreed it does mean you’re immune.  Testing has to be accurate obviously.  

[dcar00 14,323]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, I’m assuming because of the quality of testing.  Someone posted upthread just today that a group is scientists agreed it does mean you’re immune.  Testing has to be accurate obviously.  

thanks. do you know what antibody test is now considered reliable enough to claim someone has antibodies which will allow some do different things than those that don't have them?

[dcbc 14,505]

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 

This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.

I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

Edited May 3, 2020 by dcbc

[dcar00 14,323]

25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dude, we estimate the flu because not every single case gets diagnosed by a doctor. It simply isn't necessary to call a healthcare professional the vast vast majority of the time. Thus, there is no magic data to pull from to get an accurate count of how many people had the flu. The best we can do is get an informed and statistically sound estimate. The same is true with sars-cov-2. Math and epidemiology are your friends; stop hating on them. 

we are talking about deaths not cases.

[Anastasis 23,481]

Just now, dcar00 said:

we are talking about deaths not cases.

[dcar00 14,323]

1 minute ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 

This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.

I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

+1 for the redneck monet comment.

[justhookit 4,191]

1 minute ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 

This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.

I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

I’m sure they were trying to maintain distance but chick on the left has her own gravitational pull.

[Deej 76,882]

People are idiots.

 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200503/travis-county-closes-two-parks-due-to-overcrowding?template=ampart

[Dahobbs 17,635]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

we are talking about deaths not cases.

And the same result is true. Not everyone who dies because of the flu gets diagnosed or tested. A greater percent of deaths will get diagnosed, but it is not near 100%. You want us to have better data than we do. 

[GringoSalado 1,651]

https://disrn.com/news/texas-park-ranger-pushed-into-lake-while-telling-crowd-to-social-distance

Edited May 3, 2020 by GringoSalado

[DaysOff 7,967]

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 
This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.
I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

There were 10x that many crammed in the Guadalupe near the Hwy 281 overpass yesterday.

[Newdoc 3,448]

9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

There were 10x that many crammed in the Guadalupe near the Hwy 281 overpass yesterday.

After traveling to and from the clinic plus running to Lowe's for plumbing supplies (rats chew the hell out of plastic tubing BTW) I am convinced we are too stupid practice hygiene and physical distancing with any reasonable amount of self control and common sense. This virus hopefully has a low IFR and susceptible people are sheltering in place. It's just going to have to burn through us. Sigh.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,119]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t have a 401k, I have three little kids and we travel once a year on a cheap ass cruise and I’ve been never trump from the word go, before it was even a thing so sure, paint with whatever brush you want. 

 

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not really politics. That’s me saying fuck yourself to someone who has a decade of shared history with posting with me and knows better. 

I’ve respected him as a poster over the years. Maybe avoiding CR, for the most part, has given me a false sense of who he is.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

[/url] https://disrn.com/news/texas-park-ranger-pushed-into-lake-while-telling-crowd-to-social-distance

Haha good. Feel bad for that dude. Parts of Gen Z obviously doesn’t give a shit about social distancing and never has.

[dcar00 14,323]

23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

And the same result is true. Not everyone who dies because of the flu gets diagnosed or tested. A greater percent of deaths will get diagnosed, but it is not near 100%. You want us to have better data than we do. 

yes I do.  it seems crazy that someone dies of flu never gets tested. the test is simple and available everywhere.  I am assuming the symptoms would likely dictate a flu test.  sure I could see it not being 100% because of a mistake but it should be 95% plus.  How the hell is the flu not tested and then the doctor says they died of the flu?  shit when someone comes in sick with cough, fever, etc the first thing they do is test you for the flu.  yes in 1918 or even 1950's I can see that being an issue but not in 2010's for flu.

[Chooky 13,317]

1 hour ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 

This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.

I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

Redneck Monet killed me. 

[4th_and_18 687]

thanks. do you know what antibody test is now considered reliable enough to claim someone has antibodies which will allow some do different things than those that don't have them?

Seems like the finger prick test = low confidence. Blood draw from vein = near 100% confidence.

[gmr548 16,590]

Here ya go. More from Port A yesterday.

I was just thinking sneaking down to Port A in June or something may be doable. Low key enough to keep appropriate distances. Lol nevermind.

[gmr548 16,590]

we travel once a year on a cheap ass cruise

I would not admit that publicly right now lol

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

thanks. do you know what antibody test is now considered reliable enough to claim someone has antibodies which will allow some do different things than those that don't have them?

I think if you go to LabCorp or Quest you should be good.  They’re not taking short cuts to get tests.  

[F250 28,809]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

1 hour ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 
This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.
I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

Read more  

There were 10x that many crammed in the Guadalupe near the Hwy 281 overpass yesterday.

Well it is named Swine Creek. All of the riffraff from that spot usually drives over to Fischer's for beer and shit. Normally that isn't a bad thing but now isn't the best time for hoards of people drunk on jello shots to meander into a store for alcohol and junk food.

[Wulaw Horn 19,145]

Just now, gmr548 said:

 

 

I would not admit that publicly right now lol

 

And see- that’s the thing- I tell the truth at all times in my day to day life and on the internet. Radical transparency. So when I say “I’m worried about this economy crashing and sucking the most vulnerable among us down into despair and depression- more so than I’m worried about large numbers of mostly old and sick people dying” it means literally exactly what I say it means. It’s not some Trojan horse to complain about my stock account bc I don’t even have a fucking stock account and never will!  And it damn sure isn’t to prop up the current resident in the whitehouse. 

It’s literally me saying- boy this choice sucks ass but if I had to choose I’d choose an extra 200,000 olds and sicks dead over 60,000,000 unemployed. 

And if you want to disagree with that it’s perfectly reasonable to take the opposite proposition. 

[Dewey 3,286]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

1 hour ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 
This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.
I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

Read more  

There were 10x that many crammed in the Guadalupe near the Hwy 281 overpass 

I bet every body of water in the state is packed. Galveston is having a mini spring break, thousands are here. Many weren't happy with the park's and whatnot where they live, so they drove hours to be here. Good for business,  kind of, reports are that the Strand is lackluster. 

[gmr548 16,590]

We all know what his point is. She is a star for those wanting statist control.

Stop your political whining.

apparently we are being told here in Austin that anitbody testing doesn't mean you are immune.  seems like someone positive for antibodies still needs to follow all the rules as if they can get it or can spread it.

Also worth noting that it isn't necessarialy clear how long antibodies make you immune. Immunity to other coronaviruses doesn't last forever. My understanding is the false positive antibody tests are primarialy finding such antibodies, from a cold or whatever.

It does seem that all the ingredients are there for this to just be endemic. Which would be... Not great, Bob.

[Bevo 13,593]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

After traveling to and from the clinic plus running to Lowe's for plumbing supplies (rats chew the hell out of plastic tubing BTW) I am convinced we are too stupid practice hygiene and physical distancing with any reasonable amount of self control and common sense. This virus hopefully has a low IFR and susceptible people are sheltering in place. It's just going to have to burn through us. Sigh.

But, did you wear your scrubs in Lowe's?

[Wulaw Horn 19,145]

Derka. Damn autocorrect. I think Derka is one of the best posters and human beings on this website. 

[dcar00 14,323]

14 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I think if you go to LabCorp or Quest you should be good.  They’re not taking short cuts to get tests.  

thanks

[Bevo 13,593]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Haha good. Feel bad for that dude. Parts of Gen Z obviously doesn’t give a shit about social distancing and never has.

Whoever pushed him in has no respect for others.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Whoever pushed him in has no respect for others.

He's gonna get max fines I bet (and hope). A  judge will not be happy about that act.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Whoever pushed him in has no respect for others.

They need to open up a punching stand on this clown

[Hmbre97 6,329]

Edited May 3, 2020 by Hmbre97

[wild_turkey 3,180]

The economy > people’s lives. Even though many of us on this site are white collar, still working, unaffected because we can WFH, this “but the economy” argument has a hidden agenda. 
And it’s not because “they care” about the underclass of citizens in retail, hospitality, food service, etc.  out of work. It’s their 401k, it’s bc they can’t travel for funsies and it’s political reasons. 

So you think that just because most of us have white collar jobs that we have no concern for “underclass citizens“ or that we don’t have friends and family who are currently facing financial struggles? Are you that isolated in your own personal WFH situation that you don’t know people like this? Not everyone is lucky enough to be in your situation and there are real world economic consequences for millions of people during this shutdown. Food banks are setting records for families served right now if that tells you anything.

A 401k means nothing to me. I’m young and have buying power so a down market is beneficial to me but I have much bigger concerns for those around me and the country as a whole.

[XYZ 2,154]

Where do I get tested for antibodies in Austin?

[dcar00 14,323]

4 hours ago, Lobo said:

The health care system is 25%+ of the GDP's cratering.  

Now the coffin shipping business, that's what I want to get into.

you should have been in the coffin shipping business well before this.

[MissingInAction 25,158]

People, especially Mericans, are completely fucking stupid. So caught up in their own bullshit that comprehending a pandemic will never enter  their realm of thought.

This is a country of stupid cunts, so we get what we deserve.

Edited May 3, 2020 by MissingInAction

[Hpara759 1,780]

38 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Whoever pushed him in has no respect for others.

More like a POS

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

People, especially Mericans, are completely fucking stupid. So caught up in their own bullshit that comprehending a pandemic will never enter  their realm of thought.

This is a country of stupid cunts, so we get what we deserve.

Stop drinking, tomorrow is Monday, you may have a job you need to be sober for.

[Buzzrock 14,936]

2 hours ago, dcbc said:

Wife and I took a little driving tour of some of the local boat ramps and lake recreation areas.  We've put a moratorium on taking the boat out at this point, but just trying to gauge how busy the lake is.  At one of the more popular spots, it was pretty uncomfortable for us to watch a complete disregard of any safety measures whatsoever. 

This was one of the more tame gatherings, and still zero distancing.

I know the picture looks like a redneck Monet, but we were keeping our distance.

Those people all live in one house, it’s ok.