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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15302

Posted
Posted

Three cruises.  Two with Carnival.  Both attributed to neighborhood Happy Hour gang debauchery.  So cheap you can ball out on a giant room and get the drink package.   Kids have a blast and got to spend all week with their friends.  So it wasn't the worst time.  Excursion to Grand Cayman was by far the most fun.  Then Belize.   

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smoothlonghorn

smoothlonghorn 83

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

IT was funny enough to say twice my man (I got popped earlier today with the dreaded double post for the first time ever). I think shit's borked. Shit- it's showing up 3 times but I think that's only on my computer- I have no idea what's going on nor how to internet today seemingly. I'm a stupid.

Ha! It's only showing up once on mine, but wouldn't doubt it--it took me wayyyyy too long to figure out how to correctly quote both posts. I mean, we've only been doing this for 20+ years, right? (in today's sobering reminder of how old some of us are getting).....

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Those pics always make things look worse than they are. Very few strangers get much closer than ten feet to you in a family day at the beach type setting -- it's not Spring Break out there, folks. There are rules. 

There is probably a half-mile of beach in that top photo...If you took a sweeping panorama picture of certain neighborhoods with active young families and somehow made the trees and buildings invisible it wouldn't look that different from that pic. 

Similar pics emerged from Corpus about a month ago and people were promising Nueces County was about to become another Wuhan or New York. Not so much: Nueces County has reported 107 total cases and three deaths through the whole pandemic. At least one of those deaths had nothing to do with the beach.

I’m here and I’ve been on the beach in person so I’m not going by the pictures. It’s really really fucking crowded and stretches of the beach are exactly like spring break. There are rules? LOL nobody is following them. That said it’s not why I posted those pictures. I have no problem with the beach being crowded and yes it’s very easy to keep to yourself if you want. Just don’t go into the grocery store or convenience store. You think any of these fucks brought a mask? It’s a zoo.

Regarding the small number of cases in Nueces county, and 7 here in Port A (that all were the result of being brought in from Costa Rica), that’s not the point. The issue is people bringing it in from other places. We were pretty damn comfortable here with no new cases in 3 weeks. Now, not so much. Whatever, I’m all for opening up like we are and giving this a chance.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15302

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Posted

Jesus China, you dewsh waffles...

To the utter and complete surprise to nobody, the AP report China hid the severity of the outbreak to stock up on supplies

Quote

U.S. officials believe China covered up the extent of the coronavirus outbreak — and how contagious the disease is — to stock up on medical supplies needed to respond to it, intelligence documents show.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19131

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


Okay, I really wouldn't admit that publicly.

 

As I've said before- I say the truth at all times.  I drink scotch and water as my go to 51 weejs a year.  Beer with mexican food or watching football all day on saturday, other than that, scotch.  But 1 week a year I drink girl drinks while sitting on a sun deck on a cruise ship.  No RAGRETS!

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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F250

F250 28791

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Or San Antonio. 

Yeah fuck the Blue Angels, I am surprised the Thunderbirds were not scheduled for San Antonio considering all of the Air Force ties to the city and the fact that the city hosted all those infected Wuhan evacuees.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19131

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, smoothlonghorn said:

Ha! It's only showing up once on mine, but wouldn't doubt it--it took me wayyyyy too long to figure out how to correctly quote both posts. I mean, we've only been doing this for 20+ years, right? (in today's sobering reminder of how old some of us are getting).....

Fucking crazy how quick life goes sometimes isn't it.  I was having a problem when I F5 and then click on show reply.  Like I said, I are a stupid. 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29945

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HoffaJimmy said:

 

Yeah most studies out there show 80%-90% (in some states 100%) of people dying had other underlying health conditions. I am not saying it should be an all clear but whenever things finally do clear up and studies are done I think it's really going to show that a overwhelming number of people that die had other health issues whether heart disease, hypertension, obesity, etc. Again not saying that is a reason to not worry about it but it will be interesting.  

How is it relevant? Or better, how is that information mitigating?

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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I thought the warm weather was supposed to stop COVID though? Someone should tell Abbot so he can stop trying to put my parents health at risk by reopening too early.

Thank god, new projections.  So far the projections have been super accurate.  Also If you are depending on the government to save/protect your parents that’s not a good strategy.  Both my parents are 80+ and know they are high risk and have decided they will continue to sip.  At some point some personal responsibility needs to take over. 

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Sgt Hulk

Sgt Hulk 13811

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Those flyovers are such a tremendous waste of money. 

they actually arent, they are already budgeted for training and the air shows that were cancelled, Pilots still need to remain qualified, and instead of running a training mission out of the nevada desert, the mission is over dallas saying this is for you first responders, because never in the history of man kind have first responders or doctors had to work and save lives until now

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15302

Posted
Posted
Just now, RomaVicta said:

How is it relevant? Or better, how is that information mitigating?

Maybe a giant wake-up call to all the jelly-bellies out there freebasing twinkies and mashed 'taters and sucking down gallons of sugar water.  

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stork642 said:

You mean there are some photographers out there looking to take pictures that present a view that is distorted in order to fit a particular narrative?  There is a lot of legitimate concern with Corona but it’s pretty clear the media, in general, is happy to manipulate data/photos to get their target markets all fired up.  I think everyone is complicit in this fuckery.   We see what we want to see. 

No , that’s not what’s going on with any of the photos I’ve posted. ask @immamac what Port A was like this weekend, we aren’t making this up to fit a narrative. I’m sorry y’all can’t comprehend that cars were parked right next to each other with lots of them double parked, for miles and miles.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40854

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm a simple man.  When I go on vacation all I really want to do is make sure I bang my wife (and talk to her and hang out with her- I do like her afterall) and not be hassled by my kids. If I can mix in a good buzz for some of that time all the better.  As such I can enjoy Houston staycations. The Omni has a deal, almost every weekend, with a room for about $89. They have a fairly nice pool.  So typical staycation is a couple nights at the omni- 1 night with a decent dinner downtown (friday night) and a little bit of booze- saturday lay around at the pool with booze (usually bring some with us for the room and buy whatever we want at the pool), and then brunch Sunday and return home.   

That would cost $700-$900 in Austin.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29945

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Maybe a giant wake-up call to all the jelly-bellies out there freebasing twinkies and mashed 'taters and sucking down gallons of sugar water.  

So, death panels, anyone? 

Maybe if we made moves to change the national diet by controlling advertising for unhealthy foods (of which you clearly disapprove) and not subsidizing unhealthy foods we could return to the way America looked 35 years ago.

Maybe don't raise kids on melted cheese and movie-promoted crap food.

Or maybe just pretend we're perfectly healthy and derogate those who are not.

If they die, they die. I'm very tough. What shit.

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HoffaJimmy

HoffaJimmy 316

Posted
Posted

 

8 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

How is it relevant? Or better, how is that information mitigating?

 

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Maybe a giant wake-up call to all the jelly-bellies out there freebasing twinkies and mashed 'taters and sucking down gallons of sugar water.  

 

Ding, Ding, Ding. Maybe mix in a fucking salad and go for a walk every now and again because guess what- it isn't bullshit it will probably save your life. 

 

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14344

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

And as they collapse, they'll have to come up with new revenue streams.  Whoda thunk that we'd see Caribbean piracy make a comeback?  Disney's gonna have to update their ride...

YellowHopefulArizonaalligatorlizard-size

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18253

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

NYT is reporting that the new projections from the feds are as high as 3000 deaths/day in June. Hopefully that's just another upper-bound worst-case projection and we end up significantly below. But shit, even if we just hold steady at 1000 deaths/day through June we're upwards of 100k total deaths. In only six months. 

Considering that the CDC daily death projections have consistently proven much lower than the actuals, that’s frightening.

1588611493766.png
 

But maybe these new projections fix the problems that resulted in their significant underestimation of the death toll to this point.

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HoffaJimmy

HoffaJimmy 316

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Posted
Just now, RomaVicta said:

So, death panels, anyone? 

Maybe if we made moves to change the national diet by controlling advertising for unhealthy foods (of which you clearly disapprove) and not subsidizing unhealthy foods we could return to the way America looked 35 years ago.

Maybe don't raise kids on melted cheese and movie-promoted crap food.

Or maybe just pretend we're perfectly healthy and derogate those who are not.

If they die, they die. I'm very tough. What shit.

 

Derp. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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I wouldn't be surprised if it were there in November.  We know it was in Italy in December.

One thing I’ve learned about epidemics..is take the “why stop there?” Approach.May as well go an extra month and say it was in America by nov. almost as important as antibody tests is getting every 2019 flu negative testee(lol) and see if they have IGG antibodies

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15302

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6 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Considering that the CDC daily death projections have consistently proven much lower than the actuals, that’s frightening.

1588611493766.png
 

But maybe these new projections fix the problems that resulted in their significant underestimation of the death toll to this point.

More cases is a good thing. They are assuming a constant case fatality rate. I expect that to decline as better measures, particularly in nursing homes are put into place. I'm reading that treatment outcomes are improving and less killing of patients with vents.

Let's hope that is the case.

#twomoreweeks

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So it sounds like maybe these flyovers ARE NOT a waste of money.  Can somebody clarify?

A flyover costs a bag of gas, which those aircraft were going to burn anyway on currency or training flights.  Air shows requires a much more significant outlay because of the ground element, security, etc.  They cost money, yes, but its nothing outside of their normal budget.  

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, yeah, and?  This thing was going to kill 2,000,000 once upon a time. Be really happy and feel like we dodged a bullet if it ends up at 200,000 by the end of the year. That sucks, but it's way better than it looked at one point in time. 

No one ever said it was going to kill 2,000,000 if we shut shit down. 2,000,000 was if we did nothing and behaviors didn't change. No serious projection said that was a "likely" outcome.

Edited by Dahobbs
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Homercles

Homercles 10206

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm a simple man.  When I go on vacation all I really want to do is make sure I bang my wife (and talk to her and hang out with her- I do like her afterall) and not be hassled by my kids. If I can mix in a good buzz for some of that time all the better.  As such I can enjoy Houston staycations. The Omni has a deal, almost every weekend, with a room for about $89. They have a fairly nice pool.  So typical staycation is a couple nights at the omni- 1 night with a decent dinner downtown (friday night) and a little bit of booze- saturday lay around at the pool with booze (usually bring some with us for the room and buy whatever we want at the pool), and then brunch Sunday and return home.   

All of this.  For my wife’s 40th we managed to go to Thailand, have a group outing with her friends and a nice family dinner.  When she asked about my upcoming 40th I said I want to be somewhere with no kids, alcohol and plenty of sexy time...those were the only things I cared about.  Mexico all inclusive resort fits that bill for me.  
 

Before this virus my motivation for regular staycations involved achieving those same three objectives.  Get my wife and I away from the kids so we can booze without responsibility, bang longer than a 10 minute quickie without worry of the 3yo trying to walk in and not have to be constantly breaking up fights between the kids.  Honestly just getting away from the kids ensures all three objectives are met.  

Edited by Homercles
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dcar00

dcar00 14312

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No one ever said it was going to kill 2,000,000 if we shut shit down. 2,000,000 was if we did nothing and behaviors didn't change. No serious projection said that was a "likely" outcome.

2.2M was never an outcome that was going to happen even if we didn't shut shit down.  thats the issue along with the media reporting 2.2M possible deaths(without give any real context).  we(as a people and a govt) were never ever going to do nothing.  it was stupid to model it, put it in the first page of your model report, and and it was stupid for the media to report it.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, justhookit said:

No , that’s not what’s going on with any of the photos I’ve posted. ask @immamac what Port A was like this weekend, we aren’t making this up to fit a narrative. I’m sorry y’all can’t comprehend that cars were parked right next to each other with lots of them double parked, for miles and miles.

If you were there to witness it aren't you part of the perceived problem?

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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No one ever said it was going to kill 2,000,000 if we shut shit down. 2,000,000 was if we did nothing and behaviors didn't change. No serious projection said that was a "likely" outcome. Stop playing into a fucking false narrative. It is fucking asinine and you are better than that. 

Just as asinine to put out a projection that was a result of doing nothing.  “Do Nothing” was never going to be the outcome and everyone knows it. People will always adapt, that is, until that change in behavior causes more pain than the original pain could have ever caused.  

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2354

Posted
Posted

So for the afternoon livestock updates. Cattle slaughter runs were down 2K from Friday, but still above Wednesday's low day. Hogs were up 12K from Friday, and both were about 3-5% off last Monday. So the low runs held so far, and the hardest hit Cargill beef plants in Canada were re-opening today with both shifts, so if that is successful, I would think we will see similar things next week in the US, which should put the tightest meat supplies this week, but we are still probably deficit for the bulk of the month of May. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16588

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Posted
So it sounds like maybe these flyovers ARE NOT a waste of money.  Can somebody clarify?

The argument is the money's already been appropriated and that they could be doing more costly stuff with them. Fair point.

You could then of course argue the planes themselves are wastes of money in that case, but this isn't the thread for that.
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

2.2M was never an outcome that was going to happen even if we didn't shut shit down.  thats the issue along with the media reporting 2.2M possible deaths(without give any real context).  we(as a people and a govt) were never ever going to do nothing.  it was stupid to model it, put it in the first page of your model report, and and it was stupid for the media to report it.

It is a reference number. We need to know what a potential baseline is to know if (1) we should do something more or (2) we should actually encourage people to avoid material changes in their behavior (i.e., if the scenario where the most efficient outcome is actually not reducing social contacts). The scientific papers were clear on the assumptions that went into those estimates and why they were viewed as unlikely outcomes. We shouldn't ignore potentially useful information just because someone, somewhere might misunderstand it. That would be incredibly stupid. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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