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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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  On 5/8/2020 at 1:56 PM, Somnio said:

 

So I noticed these two posts were negged.  I'm curious as to why. 

Are we now negging people who post info we don't like?  Or maybe you believe the information is false, and the poster is intentionally spreading lies?  Is there some history here, and you just don't like the person posting?

I'm just trying to understand, as the information seems reasonable and relevant to this thread.  It doesn't seem like it belongs in the Cloak Room.  What's going on here?

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The anti-CR crew think Hugo is a Russian bot or some shit. For all the “durrrr CR is libtard groupthink” they get triggered when he posts.  His posts were highly relevant to this thread. 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 2:59 PM, Brisketexan said:

Okay, a friend shared this article with me - key point is that the expectation is that we've seen around 10% of the world population exposed to COVID, with 270k deaths (yes, we know that's underreported).  https://people.com/health/coronavirus-began-spreading-last-year/

Some other interesting stuff in there, but the numbers are what have got me thinking.

While the news ain't great, I'm going to raise a voice of relative "optimism." The article says that 10% of the world has been exposed (that would be 750 million infections)..but the death count is only 270k. We know that's an undercount (we know that China alone has underreported). But let's say it's double that -- 500k. Extrapolating the number of deaths to exposures, and knowing that "herd immunity" happens at around 75% exposure (meaning that transmission sharply declines when the infection rate reaches that point), then we're looking at a global number of deaths of under 4 million. Yes, no death is "good," and a bad annual flu death total is 500k, so we'd be looking at 8X the annual flu death total, globally. BUT, as this is a unique disease, and there are multiple parallel efforts to develop a vaccine, within a year or so, this should not be a repeated event. Oh, and those numbers would translate to around 250k dead in the US when all is said and done.

There are no good choices here. But can the world handle 4 million deaths, and the US 250k, so that billions of people don't lose their livelihood, their homes, their future? These are the hard balancing discussions that have to take place. We know that we can live and go about our lives with the risk of the flu, which happens every year. Can we do the same with something materially worse than the flu this year, but which we are working to ensure doesn't repeat annually? I don't know. But it's a discussion that should be had.

If we laid out those simple facts at the beginning of this event:

1) we have a pandemic that is likely to kill 3-4 million people globally.

2) we have reasonable confidence that we can limit a repeat of that in future years.

3) harsh measures to reduce the lethality of the pandemic will cause unprecedented harm to the global economy, and to the lives and livelihood of literally billions of people.

Would we take a different path than we're on right now?  At least a more limited path of using the lockdown to protect healthcare resources, and then smart, measured reopenings?  I think we would.  We have to act based on the information we have at a given time.  As we get better information, we should make better decisions.  I want to see more, I want to get the numbers nailed down.  But I suspect that there's a pathway out of this.  It needs to be understood and weighed. 

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As this goes on, it feels like surface transmission is less and less likely, with respiratory droplets being the largest transmission path. 
if that’s right, then it seems like most everything could stay open if everyone would use masks and practice social distancing where practical. 
And those of us that can limit interactions/self quarantine will still do that. 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:07 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

As this goes on, it feels like surface transmission is less and less likely, with respiratory droplets being the largest transmission path. 
if that’s right, then it seems like most everything could stay open if everyone would use masks and practice social distancing where practical. 
And those of us that can limit interactions/self quarantine will still do that. 

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FASCIST! MUH RUGHTS

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  On 5/8/2020 at 2:36 PM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

WSJ has an article that states that House Democrats are nearing a plan.  Now, that does not mean one will come, but I am hearing up to 2k payments.  I have also heard that the Republican plan is for tax cuts.  Most of that was from yesterday.

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I'll PM you the Forbes article with the direct quotes concerning another round of stimulus checks.

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Strange to me that I can get a haircut or a manicure today, but I can't go to a library---in terms of where you're most likely to get human contact.  Admittedly, I do usually hold a book on the left page while a complete stranger with an unwashed hand holds the right page as we read together.  

Good news is more and more evidence mounting that the virus doesn't last as long on surfaces as we once thought.  Bad news, density of humans is fun for the virus.  

Can we talk about density on here?  Serious question.  Figuring out the rules here anymore are a fool's errand.  Speaking of errands, I need to get to Twin Liquors before the weekend.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:07 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

As this goes on, it feels like surface transmission is less and less likely, with respiratory droplets being the largest transmission path. 
if that’s right, then it seems like most everything could stay open if everyone would use masks and practice social distancing where practical. 
And those of us that can limit interactions/self quarantine will still do that. 

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Agreed.  Again, more and better data helps make better decisions.

  On 5/8/2020 at 3:15 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

I think you treat this like any other issue. Manage your own risk while attempting to minimize the risk of others. We do it every day.

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It's the second part that is a challenge for the US in particular, because such a huge segment of the population takes even the suggestion that maybe you shouldn't sneeze in someone's face as installing a fascist dictatorship.  We are very, very, very shitty at acting in a way that gives a billionth of a shit about anyone but ourselves.  And the fact that we have turned into a political divide a simple thing like "hey, maybe take an easy measure that protects everyone around you" -- when such an issue, 50 or even 20 years ago, would have been a national and effectively unifying rallying point, is beyond fucked up.

"Wear a mask so you can avoid infecting someone else when you're out among people" isn't a political issue.  It's fucking human decency and consideration for others.  But here we are.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:28 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Understood, but life has risks. You can only control you. Hell, people actually CHOOSE to become Aggie. 

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Well, that's not true at all.  We have laws that control others.  Lots of them.  They aren't perfect, but they're pretty good -- the number of people driving 100 mph down my residential street is really, really low.  Speed limits here protect me and my family by exerting control over the behavior of others.  For example, we made a decision as a society long ago that to protect others -- kids going to school -- we'd enact school zones with 20 mph speed limits.  That controls others (drivers) to protect a population (school kids).

And we don't have to achieve 100% compliance -- with either speed limits or masks.  A high enough percentage materially protects us.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:29 PM, Brisketexan said:

Well, that's not true at all. 

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It is true. You can't stop people regardless of the law. People speed despite the law. People drive drunk despite the law. And it is The American Way to push back on (what is perceived as) overreach. It's what we do. Ask England about their tea. It's our DNA. 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:34 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

It is true. You can't stop people regardless of the law. People speed despite the law. People drive drunk despite the law. And it is The American Way to push back on (what is perceived as) overreach. It's what we do. Ask England about their tea. It's our DNA. 

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I hope you meant ask England about their taxes and soldier quartering 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:34 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

It is true. You can't stop people regardless of the law. People speed despite the law. People drive drunk despite the law. And it is The American Way to push back on (what is perceived as) overreach. It's what we do. Ask England about their tea. It's our DNA. 

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See my note about percentages.  Saying the law doesn't work because 100% don't comply misses the point.  Your argument amounts to "unless a law achieves 100% compliance, it's pointless," and in terms of influencing behavior, that's flat-out wrong.

The vast majority of drivers stay in the general area of the speed limit (say, 10 mph over).  They do so for a variety of reasons -- fear of a ticket (law enforcement), social pressure (don't be the dick who speeds through the residential neighborhood), etc.  But the point is....go watch a school zone.  99% of the drivers at least slow down to 25.  Laws work.

Why this one -- "please wear a mask when around others" -- is so offensive....I don't fucking get it.  We have a huge segment of our society that has chosen to worship at the altar of ME AND FUCK YOU, and any chance they get to shout their hallelujah, they take it.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 2:15 PM, Newdoc said:

They will start drinking unsafe sources of alcohol. I know this from clinical experience. I’ve caught patients buying pump hair spray in the gift shop to drink because of the alcohol content. I’ve ordered beer ( like ordering Tylenol for fever) for patients to keep them from dangerous withdrawals.

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We have murder hornets invading our nation.  Half of Australia burned.  The most popular streaming show is about a gay bigamist redneck from Oklahoma who owned hundreds of tigers, and Nicholas Cage is going to portray him in the 8-part TV miniseries about the 8-part streaming series. Axl Rose and the Secretary of Treasury are in a twitter fight.  Prince Harry bailed on the Prince part.  We got into a brief fight with Iran.  Kobe Bryant was killed in a helicopter accident.  Sylvester Stallone just announced Demolition Man 2.  The UK bailed on the EU.  Hundreds of millions of Americans were under some kind of stay-at-home requests over a pandemic.  Our stock market went off the rails.  We have formations of drones flying around Colorado and Kansas, and the Navy is releasing videos of UFOs.  The Astros were nailed for cheating by MLB.  Breweries switched over to making hand sanitizer.  Potentially the biggest movie of the year is going to be Top Gun 2.

Edit: And Brian May tore his ass up literally, and is now in the hospital.

And now Fitlump is once again running for Austin City Council.

But if there's one thing I know, based on Facebook, there won't be many unsafe sources of alcohol, because anything on the store shelves that has alcohol in it and is not a cleaning product, is being bought up by soccer moms and turned into hand sanitizer.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:37 PM, Brisketexan said:

Saying the law doesn't work because 100% don't comply misses the point.  Your argument amounts to "unless a law achieves 100% compliance, it's pointless," and in terms of influencing behavior, that's flat-out wrong.

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That's not what I'm saying at all. I said "You can only control you", which is true. Some people are dicks. Not much I can do about that.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:41 PM, atomheartbevo said:

We have murder hornets invading our nation.  Half of Australia burned.  The most popular streaming show is about a gay bigamist redneck from Oklahoma who owned hundreds of tigers, and Nicholas Cage is going to portray him in the 8-part TV miniseries about the 8-part streaming series. Axl Rose and the Secretary of Treasury are in a twitter fight.  Prince Harry bailed on the Prince part.  We got into a brief fight with Iran.  Kobe Bryant was killed in a helicopter accident.  Sylvester Stallone just announced Demolition Man 2.  The UK bailed on the EU.  Hundreds of millions of Americans were under some kind of stay-at-home requests over a pandemic.  Our stock market went off the rails.  We have formations of drones flying around Colorado and Kansas, and the Navy is releasing videos of UFOs.  The Astros were nailed for cheating by MLB.  Breweries switched over to making hand sanitizer.  Potentially the biggest movie of the year is going to be Top Gun 2.

And now Fitlump is once again running for Austin City Council.

But if there's one thing I know, based on Facebook, there won't be many unsafe sources of alcohol, because anything on the store shelves that has alcohol in it and is not a cleaning product, is being bought up by soccer moms and turned into hand sanitizer.

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Everyone knows the answer. Only one man can fix this.

 

terry crews idiocracy GIF by Maudit

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:43 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

That's not what I'm saying at all. I said "You can only control you", which is true. Some people are dicks. Not much I can do about that.

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I can only control me, that's true.

But WE -- a society, acting through a system of laws -- can absolutely control the behavior of others.  That's literally what every law and regulation does (some more successfully than others).

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:24 PM, Lobo said:

Strange to me that I can get a haircut or a manicure today, but I can't go to a library---in terms of where you're most likely to get human contact.  Admittedly, I do usually hold a book on the left page while a complete stranger with an unwashed hand holds the right page as we read together.  

Good news is more and more evidence mounting that the virus doesn't last as long on surfaces as we once thought.  Bad news, density of humans is fun for the virus.  

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You answered your own question.  Plus, you've been in libraries in Austin.  You know there is a segment of the population that uses them, for which normal hygienic measures can be an issue at times.

Our local library has been under renovation for the past year, our kids are bouncing off the walls wanting new things to do, and we have a box of around 40 library books that we'd like to turn in, but I'm guessing it's going to be June.

Flip side:  The city is doing normal maintenance to get the neighborhood pools up and running, so they anticipate a lot of stuff opening up soon.

 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:54 PM, BrickHorn said:

Oh for fuck’s sake. The current pushback against sound public health policy isn’t the expression of some heroic American national trait. It’s knee jerk belligerence of the type most often displayed by cranky toddlers and “Hold my Beer”-style Darwin Award winners. Let’s not confuse these overgrown infants for patriots. 

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clap.gif

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:53 PM, atomheartbevo said:

You answered your own question.  Plus, you've been in libraries in Austin.  You know there is a segment of the population that uses them, for which normal hygienic measures can be an issue at times.

Our local library has been under renovation for the past year, our kids are bouncing off the walls wanting new things to do, and we have a box of around 40 library books that we'd like to turn in, but I'm guessing it's going to be June.

Flip side:  The city is doing normal maintenance to get the neighborhood pools up and running, so they anticipate a lot of stuff opening up soon.

 

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I get your point, but my library is not a density issue.  the only people that use it are kids after school is out.  There is no school, so there won't be anybody there.  Not everybody in Texas lives near libraries overrun with homeless people, but duly noted.  It's me just wanting to have somewhere else to go get some work done when my house is loud and I don't feel like driving all the way out to Lakeway.  It's too rich for my blood, but I think about that library out at Cuernavaca and 2244, there's maybe 10 people in there on a busy day.  Would love to go and make use of that right now if they'd open.  But nope, my options are stay home or go get a pedicure.  

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No shoes, no shirt, no service. We've seen that posted on the doors of countless conveniences stores our entire fucking lives, but I'm willing to bet a good portion of our population would boycott a similar sign that simply added a mask to that requirement until this ends.

You know what? I fucking hate wearing pants, but I do so when in public out of respect of others. It's not that gotdam hard. Hell, I could go even further and talk about public decency laws and whether they do or do not have a direct relationship to public safety or sanitation.

Clearly, for the time being, wearing a mask does appear to mitigate the risk of spreading this shit. It's not that hard. As someone posted elsewhere, some seem to want 100% freedom with 0% responsibility.

The solution is simple: Don't be a selfish prick.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:37 PM, Brisketexan said:

Why this one -- "please wear a mask when around others" -- is so offensive....I don't fucking get it.  We have a huge segment of our society that has chosen to worship at the altar of ME AND FUCK YOU, and any chance they get to shout their hallelujah, they take it.

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Putting aside the fact that the more paranoid elements of society, in theory would have been the ones wearing face masks as soon as this started, it's the olds who initially hesitated that I don't get.  Thankfully most of the olds in my family got it together and followed the precautions once they started hearing about it tearing through nursing homes.

When this started, if we could have had videos out saying "if you are old and have underlying issues, if you get covid, if you're gonna die, this is most likely how you're going to die" followed by videos or descriptions from doctors of what it's like for a covid patient to die, it might have sunk in with some of them.

Ironically, because the olds consume a lot of TV news, and the news was filled up with NYC, Italy, Wuhan, etc. maybe that helped drive home the point to them that "hey, you're old, this shit will fuck you up."

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:59 PM, bolverk said:

No shoes, no shirt, no service. We've seen that posted on the doors of countless conveniences stores our entire fucking lives, but I'm willing to bet a good portion of our population would boycott a similar sign that simply added a mask to that requirement until this ends.

You know what? I fucking hate wearing pants, but I do so when in public out of respect of others. It's not that gotdam hard. Hell, I could go even further and talk about public decency laws and whether they do or do not have a direct relationship to public safety or sanitation.

Clearly, for the time being, wearing a mask does appear to mitigate the risk of spreading this shit. It's not that hard. As someone posted elsewhere, some seem to want 100% freedom with 0% responsibility.

The solution is simple: Don't be a selfish prick.

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Those signs say nothing about pants.

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Approximately one of every three deaths a day in the US is C19.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/

  Quote

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths per day compared to all causes US 2020
Published by John Elflein, May 7, 2020
 As of April May 6th, 2020, the average daily death toll due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the U.S. was around 912 since the occurrance of the first case on February 15th. Based on data from 2019, almost eight thousand people die every day in the United States from all causes. During the 2018-2019 (October to April) influenza season, around 161 people died daily on average from influenza. Taking the latest numbers into account, it seems that at this moment almost one out of three deaths in the United States every day have involved COVID-19.

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If you are a data skeptic, looking at total 2020 deaths and comparing to previous years total deaths can give you a reasonable indicator of the impact of C19.

 
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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:57 PM, Lobo said:

I get your point, but my library is not a density issue.  the only people that use it are kids after school is out.  There is no school, so there won't be anybody there.  Not everybody in Texas lives near libraries overrun with homeless people, but duly noted.  It's me just wanting to have somewhere else to go get some work done when my house is loud and I don't feel like driving all the way out to Lakeway.  It's too rich for my blood, but I think about that library out at Cuernavaca and 2244, there's maybe 10 people in there on a busy day.  Would love to go and make use of that right now if they'd open.  But nope, my options are stay home or go get a pedicure.  

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Oh I am in complete sympathy. I've got a Central Market that has upstairs seating that is usually a nice place to sit, eat, and get some work done.  Driving me bonkers that I'm cooped up watching the kids and trying to get things done at a noisy kitchen table.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 3:59 PM, bolverk said:

You know what? I fucking hate wearing pants, but I do so when in public out of respect of others. It's not that gotdam hard. Hell, I could go even further and talk about public decency laws and whether they do or do not have a direct relationship to public safety or sanitation.

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I do it because I'm barely 7 inches and don't want to be embarrassed by having an average/below-average dick.

But I like your explanation better.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 4:00 PM, Hate said:

 

Those signs say nothing about pants.

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  Quote

Hillcrest Country Club in California has long been a favorite of entertainers. One hot August day, comedians George Burns and Harpo Marx came to the club to play a round of golf. The thermometer registered over a hundred degrees, and the two decided to play without their shirts.

But then course officials heard about the shirtless golfers and rushed out to find them.

“It’s in the rules,” said one member of the committee. “Shirts must be worn at all times.”

“Why?” demanded Burns. “We can go to a public beach without them.”

“Rules are rules,” was the firm reply. “You can’t play without a shirt.”

The comedians put their shirts back on and started to play. The officials went back to the clubhouse. A few minutes later, someone came rushing in with the news, “Burns and Marx are playing without their pants!”

Again the committee raced out on the course. Sure enough, Burns and Marx had their shirts on, but they had removed their pants and were playing in their undershorts.

“Are you crazy?” yelled a member of the committee. “You can’t play without pants!”

Harpo Marx reminded the committee of their rule book. “It says we can’t play without shirts. But show me the rule that says we can’t play without pants.”

The officials were licked and they knew it. There and then a new rule was made: All male players could take off their shirts, but they had to wear pants at all times.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 4:02 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Approximately one of every three deaths a day in the US is C19.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109281/covid-19-daily-deaths-compared-to-all-causes/

If you are a data skeptic, looking at total 2020 deaths and comparing to previous years total deaths can give you a reasonable indicator of the impact of C19.

 
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Obviously CR troll, 1 in 3 deaths per day from Covid-19 happen in the U.S.  We're the 3rd largest country.  1/3, 1:3, 3rd, etc.  It makes sense, take your shit back to CR.  

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I have a renewed faith in the world.  This is fantastic.  Three officers sent to ARREST a guy for fishing by himself (cough, three no-mask-wearing-officers who are not 6ft apart)

*insert as many "fishing", "on the hook" jokes as are applicable.  

The point:  this is the heavy-handed nonsense people are pushing back against.  Not the simple act of wearing or not wearing a mask.  

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For your AM livestock update. News continues to improve a bit. Fresh pork is up slightly but the highs have held again, beef values are higher but have leveled off substantially, with about 20% more loads sold than we've seen recently, so the uptick in production this week is easing into the retail chain. Futures remain fairly stable as well. 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 4:10 PM, Royalfan5 said:

For your AM livestock update. News continues to improve a bit. Fresh pork is up slightly but the highs have held again, beef values are higher but have leveled off substantially, with about 20% more loads sold than we've seen recently, so the uptick in production this week is easing into the retail chain. Futures remain fairly stable as well. 

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You are a regular Larry Marble of KKYX San Antonio fame. 

Whenever I go on a fishing or camping trip down on the coast, I like me some AM radio country oldies, crackly sound an all.  It takes me back to my childhood and I pick up the signal starting in San Marcos or Lockhart depending on whether I am going upper or lower coast.  Larry always seems to be on about midday.  Once he finishes with his reports, I am usually well past San Antonio or Karnes City or Gonzales and am feeling pretty positive about getting on Island time.  Seems like they play the same ten songs though.  Willy's Roadhouse is much better but, alas, no sat radio.  I think they should have a sat station that broadcast like it was an old AM country station with old commercials and the like.  Hell they probably do.

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  On 5/8/2020 at 2:59 PM, Brisketexan said:

The article says that 10% of the world has been exposed (that would be 750 million infections)..

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So, not to rain on your parade, but I've tried to find the source for that estimate. It isn't in the paper itself (as far as I can tell). I believe it was part of a response in a CNN interview (not televised as far as I know). More importantly, it wasn't a positive assertion that 10% have been exposed, but rather an upper limit: no more than 10% have been exposed. I think that is a very important distinction. It appears to me that he was just emphasizing that exposure hasn't been very widespread. 

  Quote

 But Balloux told CNN at most only 10 percent of the population has been exposed to the coronavirus.

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https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/496304-coronavirus-started-infecting-people-globally-late-last-year-study

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/health/genetics-coronavirus-spread-study/index.html

 

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  On 5/8/2020 at 4:20 PM, Newdoc said:

That’s why I added “to cope”. Depends on the reason you’re drinking.

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Jokes aside, I get it.  not to get off on a tangent, but everyday we look around---there are people that are on all kinds of shit just to deal with the day.  I used to think it was all alcohol, then I got wise (not until I was in my 40's) and realized how many people i come into contact with are on all manner of prescription drugs.  It's insane.  Just sit in the back of a parking lot sometime and watch people deal with reality.  It's madness.  our nation needs a lot of help with our mental/physical issues, no politics because to admit we have a problem is to get CR now.

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