Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ChiTownDoc 21,170]

1 minute ago, SHOOTER12 said:

She was sent to the hospital from a nursing home where she had been staying while recovering from a broken hip, and also had caught pneumonia a while back.  When Mrs. Shooter told me she had been put in the hospital, I definitely expected the worst.

Great to hear she's better!  Keep those stories coming.  They really help...

[Brisketexan 105,401]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

The healthcare system was overwhelmed there for several days in a row.  That alone will lead to more vulnerability. 

Good point.

And really, with all of this data, the number of variables is quite high.  Some places, the system got overwhelmed.  Others, more people smoke.  Others, there's natural distance.  Others, people are close together all the time.  Some got one strain of the virus, others got another strain.

We are working with wildly variable data that creates a constantly moving target in multiple dimensions.  The only conclusions we can safely draw are pretty broad ones, which necessarily leads to a pretty stout margin of error.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Is there something about New York's population that makes it particularly vulnerable once infected? Are New Yorker's less healthy than the rest of the country on average? If not, what basis do you have for your statement?

Poverty in many of the boroughs. Mass transit. Global travel / movement. Huge population density. 

[Dahobbs 17,686]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

The healthcare system was overwhelmed there for several days in a row.  That alone will lead to more vulnerability. 

Good point. We've also seen improvement in our treatment, so that should reduce future rates as well. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Good point. We've also seen improvement in our treatment, so that should reduce future rates as well. 

Yeah & it pisses me off to hear the Monday Morning QB's being critical of "how things were handled". The people on the ground did the best they could with the information/equipment they had.

[stork642 4,500]

10 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I spent one day telemarketing at 16 in a room full of fat chain smokers.  $9 an hour.  The next day I went to do construction cleanup in 100 degree heat for $15/hr cash.  And I never quit that as my summer job until I was in college.  That one day was miserable.  The old man asked when I was going to go pick that check up...I was like they can keep that fucking money.  I wasn't going to spend one more minute in that hellhole. 

One summer I decided my regular summer job(working in an air conditioned golf shop) making 5.95/hour wasn’t good enough so I took a commercial roofing job making $15/hr.   I’ll never forget my dad asking me why the hell would leave my easy pro shop job for commercial roofing.  When I told him it was for more money he shook his head and said I wouldn’t last a week.  If he hadn’t have said that I probably would have quit after two days but just to prove him wrong I stayed the whole summer.  That is when I realized how much smarter my dad was than me.  He said that knowing I would not quit just to prove him wrong all while learning that I would do anything not to do that job the rest of my life.  Anytime I’ve had a shitty day at work and momentarily think my job sucks I just think back to that summer and suddenly realize just how much I love my current job.  

[dcar00 14,375]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Good point.

And really, with all of this data, the number of variables is quite high.  Some places, the system got overwhelmed.  Others, more people smoke.  Others, there's natural distance.  Others, people are close together all the time.  Some got one strain of the virus, others got another strain.

We are working with wildly variable data that creates a constantly moving target in multiple dimensions.  The only conclusions we can safely draw are pretty broad ones, which necessarily leads to a pretty stout margin of error.

that and shoving the virus towards more vulnerable people but what do I know....

I do know it isn't going to be close to 1%.  it will be sub .5 for sure and I predict .2-.3.  There are people who will want that number to be higher(to be clear, I am not saying they want more people to die)just like we have done with flu for decades.

[Dahobbs 17,686]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Poverty in many of the boroughs. Mass transit. Global travel / movement. Huge population density. 

Most of that results in increased spread, but shouldn't (as far as I know), result in worse outcomes once infected. I don't know that the poverty levels are significantly different from the country as a whole. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I don't know that the poverty levels are significantly different from the country as a whole. 

As a percentage, probably not. But in numbers, it's huge. And when healthcare systems are taxed, those who have the money to see a "private dr" obviously fare better.

[dcar00 14,375]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah & it pisses me off to hear the Monday Morning QB's being critical of "how things were handled". The people on the ground did the best they could with the information/equipment they had.

agreed.  given the head start the virus had I think we did OK.  mistakes were made for sure but big picture is we stopped the tsunami...100K people died in 68-69 due to HK Flu.  The global and domestic travel is way different than it was 50 years ago.  we will do certain things differently next time

[stork642 4,500]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that and shoving the virus towards more vulnerable people but what do I know....

I do know it isn't going to be close to 1%.  it will be sub .5 for sure and I predict .2-.3.  There are people who will want that number to be higher(to be clear, I am not saying they want more people to die)just like we have done with flu for decades.

Yeah NY was a total cluster fuck waiting to happen. Flights from China, high density, tons of public transportation, and oh yeah they were routing Covid19 patients to nursing homes.  The new version of “don’t do meth” will be “don’t route Covid19 patients to nursing homes.”  

Edited May 20, 2020 by stork642

[Armybrat 40,919]

4 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Alternative, take Discoverie of Witchcraf, Egyptian Bellydance, and Herbalism and report back. Kinda like peanut butter whiskey. Inquiring minds and all that...

There will be a flock of cougars signed up for those.

[Brisketexan 105,401]

7 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that and shoving the virus towards more vulnerable people but what do I know....

I do know it isn't going to be close to 1%.  it will be sub .5 for sure and I predict .2-.3.  There are people who will want that number to be higher(to be clear, I am not saying they want more people to die)just like we have done with flu for decades.

That's one variable that militates in favor of the general population death rate being lower.  But the virus not having spread as much as people hopes points to the death rate being higher.  That's my point.  Any of us can cherrypick ONE variable that favors our desired outcome (I don't mean to imply anyone wants people to die, I'm just referring to any biases)...but that misses the entire point.  There are myriad variables pointing in every direction.  Some are more significant than others, and almost all of them are like all the other data points right now -- really hard to quantify.

I strongly suspect that the death rate of the total population will be well below 1%.  Infection rate just won't be 100%, and the death rate data per infections seems to be pointing to below 1%.  But see the NYC data - 1 dead per 500 residents (.2% of total population).  Even if 50% of NYC was infected (which is probably a good bit higher than reality), that's an IFR of .4%.  I actually think - and again, my educated guess is all this is -- is that the IFR is around .5%.  If half the population is infected, that would be a total population death rate of .25%, which is still north of 750,000 dead.

Right now, we're at almost 100,000 dead.  If my best-guess IFR of .25% is accurate, then that would mean that our current rate of infection in the population as a whole is around 7%.

But you bet -- there are a lot of variables that can bump all of those numbers up or down, significantly.  There's a shitload of play in the data we have thus far.

[dcar00 14,375]

11 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

As a percentage, probably not. But in numbers, it's huge. And when healthcare systems are taxed, those who have the money to see a "private dr" obviously fare better.

there are a shit ton of old unhealthy people living on top of each other in the northeast apparently.

[utee94 15,866]

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Most of that results in increased spread, but shouldn't (as far as I know), result in worse outcomes once infected. I don't know that the poverty levels are significantly different from the country as a whole. 

Increased population density results in closer proximity which could result in larger viral loads being delivered which could result in worse outcomes.  To what extent we don't currently know, and possibly may never know, but it's a possibility.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

there are a shit ton of old unhealthy people living on top of each other in the northeast apparently.

Start spreading the news...

[Brisketexan 105,401]

11 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Yeah NY was a total cluster fuck waiting to happen. Flights from China, high density, tons of public transportation, and oh yeah they were routing Covid19 patients to nursing homes.  The new version of “don’t do meth” will be “don’t route Covid19 patients to nursing homes.”  

I know the China narrative is super-fun and all....but from what I've read, the major point of origin for the NYC outbreak was Europe (mostly Italy).  It wasn't travel between NYC and China that hit NYC -- it was travel between NYC and Europe.  That is, even "shutting down all travel to China" at that point would have had little effect.  Once a virus breaks containment, it can come in from any number of vectors.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,821]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

That, combined with other horrors that are found in the sleeper cabin of a leased long haul-truck, had me change my position on whether I needed a college education.

 

Tell us what you learned about broom handles, again.  

[Don Johnson 4,757]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces

About 90% of my Covid stress could be going away now.

[dcbc 14,512]

44 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I spent one day telemarketing at 16 in a room full of fat chain smokers.  $9 an hour.  The next day I went to do construction cleanup in 100 degree heat for $15/hr cash.  And I never quit that as my summer job until I was in college.  That one day was miserable.  The old man asked when I was going to go pick that check up...I was like they can keep that fucking money.  I wasn't going to spend one more minute in that hellhole. 

The summer before my freshman year in college, I worked at Telecheck in the call center.  I lasted a month.  I had regular nightmares about that job.  I don't mind hard work, but I also like air conditioning.  It took some time, but I eventually found my calling somewhere in between driving fence posts and getting yelled at over the phone by irate customers at Randall's who couldn't bounce a check for groceries.

[dcar00 14,375]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's one variable that militates in favor of the general population death rate being lower.  But the virus not having spread as much as people hopes points to the death rate being higher.  That's my point.  Any of us can cherrypick ONE variable that favors our desired outcome (I don't mean to imply anyone wants people to die, I'm just referring to any biases)...but that misses the entire point.  There are myriad variables pointing in every direction.  Some are more significant than others, and almost all of them are like all the other data points right now -- really hard to quantify.

I strongly suspect that the death rate of the total population will be well below 1%.  Infection rate just won't be 100%, and the death rate data per infections seems to be pointing to below 1%.  But see the NYC data - 1 dead per 500 residents (.2% of total population).  Even if 50% of NYC was infected (which is probably a good bit higher than reality), that's an IFR of .4%.  I actually think - and again, my educated guess is all this is -- is that the IFR is around .5%.  If half the population is infected, that would be a total population death rate of .25%, which is still north of 750,000 dead.

Right now, we're at almost 100,000 dead.  If my best-guess IFR of .25% is accurate, then that would mean that our current rate of infection in the population as a whole is around 7%.

But you bet -- there are a lot of variables that can bump all of those numbers up or down, significantly.  There's a shitload of play in the data we have thus far.

agreed. we will know more a year from now but no one will ever really know the IFR.  its all just a guess, even the flu IFR is just a guess.  will be interesting to see how they do it when they start to guess at it.

[Guest Lobo]

Interesting article from WIRED about why density of the city is a factor, but nearly the factor that most Americans who think "But New York" is all we should focus on during Covid-19:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-does-a-virus-spread-in-cities-its-a-problem-of-scale/?bxid=5cec29952ddf9c4e32eef556&cndid=31320656&esrc=AUTO_PRINT&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_DAILY_ZZ&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_mailing=WIR_Daily_052020&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nl&utm_term=list1_p1

Many of you are considering this fake news/fake maths, but if you have a rudimentary understanding of how square footage works---you'll find this interesting at worst, compelling at best.  If avoiding the New York Subway system from your home in Houston is your plan during Covid-19, don't bother reading it.  

 

 

And yes, great news from the CDC about the virus not spreading as easily as once thought from static surfaces.  Which begs the question, where are people getting it from?  Oh yeah, assholes who have it who are still out and about with nothing covering their fat fucking faces.  But nope, FREEDOM!  How is the most anti-governement poster this fucking website the first one to mask up when he leaves the house?   Your fucking proof is there, we're not getting it from touching the same doorknobs.  We're breathing/talking onto each other like fucking assholes.  

Edited May 20, 2020 by Lobo

[Brisketexan 105,401]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

agreed. we will know more a year from now but no one will ever really know the IFR.  its all just a guess, even the flu IFR is just a guess.  will be interesting to see how they do it when they start to guess at it.

I thik we'll actually have a better idea about the IFR for this than we will for the flu, because we've never tried to document the flu as much as we're tracking Covid. Don't get me wrong, it will still be a range, but it will be more accurate than our flu data.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Which begs the question, where are people getting it from?  Oh yeah, assholes who have it who are still out and about with nothing covering their fat fucking faces.  But nope, FREEDOM! 

[stork642 4,500]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I know the China narrative is super-fun and all....but from what I've read, the major point of origin for the NYC outbreak was Europe (mostly Italy).  It wasn't travel between NYC and China that hit NYC -- it was travel between NYC and Europe.  That is, even "shutting down all travel to China" at that point would have had little effect.  Once a virus breaks containment, it can come in from any number of vectors.

That could prove to be correct and probably the correct term would be “international flights.”  Technically it started in China so maybe it doesn’t matter the route it took to get to NY.  My main point was NY was ripe for this disease for a number of reasons.  Some were inherent to the makeup of the geography and some were self inflicted dumb ass decisions made there locally.  

[Guest Lobo]

The smell of the inside of my regular mask can be best described as "essence of hoochie-mama"  

 

Also I recently learned that the 40,000 travelers that still had passports scanned from China after the lockdown on China travel occurred couldn't have brought the virus to our shores because, though they were coming from China, they were mainly U.S. Citizens returning home from travel abroad.  And even if you are coming from China, but are a U.S. Citizen, you cannot bring the virus with you because the virus knows if you are going to declare it or not at Customs.  

Edited May 20, 2020 by Lobo

[Lurch 5,931]

CDC makes that major determination, and merely updates their website and doesn’t comment when asked about it? What the actual fuck?

[T&T’s Dad 32]

53 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That article doesn't accurately summarize the state of the science nor the individual results it reports.

For instance, the Iceland study did not, contrary to the article, find a general prevalence of 13.3%. Rather, the 13.3% was for "targeted testing" (i.e., people with who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). Thus, there is going to be a heavy selection bias for people who were more likely to test positive. The same paper also references a general population screening where between .6% and .8% tested positive (there were two general screenings, an open invitation portion and a random population portion).  Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population

The California antibody tests it cites were pretty roundly criticized for flawed methodologies (self selection problems), mathematical errors, and for reliance on unreliable tests.  Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu.

It also doesn't include New York's efforts, which indicated that the prevalence of the virus is under 13% for that heavily hit state. That also suggest an IFR floor for the state of ~1% (x10 regular flu) based on known NY deaths. (19.45 million * 12.3% = 2.39 million infected. Reported NY deaths were at 24,000 deaths on May 2nd when results announced, which, divided by 2.39 million =  1.00% CFR.)  NY results

 

Fair enough, and I certainly respect your thoughts and obvious knowledge with regards to this.  However, the four studies here are just the only ones linked to the article.  There are others.  And we both know that any study can have some pretty varied differences of opinions of the conclusions.  
The uncertainty here is what is most frustrating.  And I get it, it's a "new" disease.  Erring on the side of caution is almost always a good reaction.
But could not the same outcome be reached by isolating the elderly and immuno compromised? Was it necessary to lock-down the country?  It seems that both methods of strict quarantine and loose quarantines have worked in differing areas...
I'm not trying to be obtuse in any way, i guess being furloughed and working from home leaves me with tons of time to over analyze and Monday morning quarterback.

[Brisketexan 105,401]

Just now, stork642 said:

That could prove to be correct and probably the correct term would be “international flights.”  Technically it started in China so maybe it doesn’t matter the route it took to get to NY.  My main point was NY was ripe for this disease for a number of reasons.  Some were inherent to the makeup of the geography and some were self inflicted dumb ass decisions made there locally.  

I think we're very likely going to see it bear out that 1) if the disease reached an area significantly in advance of authorities realizing that preventative measures needed to be taken, and 2) that area has relatively dense population, then 3) the disease was going to kick some ass in that area.  NYC and Milan will be the primary examples of that.  Seattle to a lesser extent.

Yes, some of what the disease did once it was running rampant was due to local decisions, but I think we're looking at a world where even managed well, NYC and Milan and Seattle were going to be hit hard.

Then you'll see other areas where much of the outbreak was due to foolish local decisions to allow spreading activity to occur after they knew it was a real risk -- NOLA went forward with Mardi Gras, and was hit much harder than Austin, which cancelled SXSW.

Again, we can learn so much from this....once all the dust clears.

[dcar00 14,375]

6 minutes ago, Lurch said:

CDC makes that major determination, and merely updates their website and doesn’t comment when asked about it? What the actual fuck?

its crazy when the green curtain gets pulled back isn't it...there's more to come.

[dcar00 14,375]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I thik we'll actually have a better idea about the IFR for this than we will for the flu, because we've never tried to document the flu as much as we're tracking Covid. Don't get me wrong, it will still be a range, but it will be more accurate than our flu data.

 

agree but I was told there are tons of asymptomatic carriers, remember.  Flu doesn't have asymptomatic carriers.   of course, asymptomatic carriers will be argued very soon because we don't want the IFR to show too low.

and as a question, why is it so hard for us to document the flu well?

Edited May 20, 2020 by dcar00

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,496]

SIAP: before and after coronavirus.  Dude was hospitalized for six weeks.

 

 

[dcar00 14,375]

Just now, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

SIAP: before and after coronavirus.  Dude was hospitalized for six weeks.

 

 

this ad brought to you by the cream and the clear

[Eastwood 4,394]

30 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Tell us what you learned about broom handles, again.  

Some things are better off left at the old site.

[SHOOTER12 8,833]

1 hour ago, dcbc said:

I spent a hot ass summer pounding fence posts on a ranch when I was 13 making $3.50 per hour.  Told my dad at the end of the first day that I wanted to look for an office job the next summer.

You overpaid s.o.b.  lol

I remember the first job I had after working in my dads store I was making $1.65 an hour and thought I had struck it rich. I was 13 yo.

Working for my dad?  $10/week.

Of course little did I know that my dad would be hired as store director a month later.  The old cuss liked to have worked me to death.  He figured I'd better darn well earn every penny of that "big money" I was making.

Edited May 20, 2020 by SHOOTER12

[Brisketexan 105,401]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agree but I was told there are tons of asymptomatic carriers, remember.  Flu doesn't have asymptomatic carriers.   of course, asymptomatic carriers will be argued very soon because we don't want the IFR to show too low.

and as a question, why is it so hard for us to document the flu well?

I don't think asymptomatic carriers is anything that needs to be "argued" -- it either is or isn't a thing.  And all info seems to point to it being a thing.  We definitely want to know the actual infection numbers - that's an important piece of information.

As to why it's so hard to document the flu well, it's because we haven't really tried.   A lot of folks get the flu, and it doesn't get reported, because we just don't care to track it that closely.  And as to deaths, again, we haven't decided to track it that closely.  We work with estimated numbers because -- for the purposes up to now -- we didn't need more accurate numbers.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,821]

3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Some things are better off left at the old site.

Yeah retelling that story might bring NowThis back.  

[Newdoc 3,453]

3 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

SIAP: before and after coronavirus.  Dude was hospitalized for six weeks.

 

 

Looks like he got a PEG or J tube (direct stomach or small intestine feeding) so his nutritional intake must of gone to nothing. Estimates are you can lose 50% strength in one week of 24/7 laying around. The guy is pretty bulked up in the article pictures so he was likely cycling or supplementing with some testosterone or HGH prior as well. He didn't get those medicines in the hospital. It will take 2 years at 43 years old for him to get back to where he was prior to Covid but of course he could always start juicing again.

[jinx 2,635]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

I do know it isn't going to be close to 1%.  it will be sub .5 for sure and I predict .2-.3.  There are people who will want that number to be higher(to be clear, I am not saying they want more people to die)just like we have done with flu for decades.

 

48 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's one variable that militates in favor of the general population death rate being lower.  But the virus not having spread as much as people hopes points to the death rate being higher.  That's my point.  Any of us can cherrypick ONE variable that favors our desired outcome (I don't mean to imply anyone wants people to die, I'm just referring to any biases)...but that misses the entire point.  There are myriad variables pointing in every direction.  Some are more significant than others, and almost all of them are like all the other data points right now -- really hard to quantify.

I love that it has gotten to this point.

If we are declaring, I will also be on team "I don't want people to die"

[SHOOTER12 8,833]

5 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Looks like he got a PEG or J tube (direct stomach or small intestine feeding) so his nutritional intake must of gone to nothing. Estimates are you can lose 50% strength in one week of 24/7 laying around. The guy is pretty bulked up in the article pictures so he was likely cycling or supplementing with some testosterone or HGH prior as well. He didn't get those medicines in the hospital. It will take 2 years at 43 years old for him to get back to where he was prior to Covid but of course he could always start juicing again.

You can damn well lose it in a hurry.  Any time I've been laid up it's taken me forever to get back anywhere close to "normal".

Damn, I just realized how long it's going to take to get to 100% after knee surgery.

Edited May 20, 2020 by SHOOTER12

[Dahobbs 17,686]

43 minutes ago, T&T’s Dad said:

Fair enough, and I certainly respect your thoughts and obvious knowledge with regards to this.  However, the four studies here are just the only ones linked to the article.  There are others.  And we both know that any study can have some pretty varied differences of opinions of the conclusions.  
The uncertainty here is what is most frustrating.  And I get it, it's a "new" disease.  Erring on the side of caution is almost always a good reaction.
But could not the same outcome be reached by isolating the elderly and immuno compromised? Was it necessary to lock-down the country?  It seems that both methods of strict quarantine and loose quarantines have worked in differing areas...
I'm not trying to be obtuse in any way, i guess being furloughed and working from home leaves me with tons of time to over analyze and Monday morning quarterback.

I'm pretty sure I've read almost everything published on mortality and spread of the virus. I think we can be pretty confident that the IFR for the US (it is going to vary based on demographic) is somewhere between .2% and 1%, with the likely zone being .3% to .7%. 

I think a short-term shutdown was necessary to get our house in order and prevent a wider collapse of the healthcare system. Protecting the elderly is going to be a big part of our path forward, but we do need other precautions in place to slow down the spread among the rest of the population. Hopefully improved sanitation, mask wearing, and moderate social distancing (e.g., avoiding huge crowds and generally keeping at arms length) slows it down enough so that we can open up a bit until better treatments/vaccines are available. I'd be more comfortable if had a systematic testing/isolation plan and were better coordinating our reopening with the monitoring of the spread (e.g., we should be prepared to increase or loosen restrictions based on testing data). But, those things don't appear to be in the cards, so I guess I'll just pray for the best. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[dcar00 14,375]

9 minutes ago, jinx said:

 

I love that it has gotten to this point.

If we are declaring, I will also be on team "I don't want people to die"

good we have you down.  what jersey number would you like .15, .3, 1.0?

[Modessit 5,606]

My mom just called and told me my brother has tested positive for the Rona. He lives in the Colorado Springs area with his wife and daughter. He's had what he thought was a sinus infection for a couple weeks and his wife finally made him go to the doctor where he was tested. Wife and daughter tested negative. They gave him some meds and sent him home and told him to come back if he developed issues with his breathing but that he'd probably be fine. They're not sure how he got it since he's been working from home the past two months and has worn masks when going to the store or whatnot. I asked my mom what they were going to do to keep it from spreading to wife and daughter but she didn't know.

[atomheartbevo 89,810]

Neighbor who teaches at UT just texted and said UT will open up in the fall on August 26, and then shut down after Thanksgiving (they know the students will pick it up traveling and bring it back), with reading/exams/etc. going remote for the rest of the semester.  Commencement ceremonies for those graduating in the fall will be postponed until 2021.

I'm guessing some of the area school districts might follow suit, or at the least, have it as one of their options.

Edited May 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,810]

4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

We got lucky with CHIEF Jr., he has been an "on water" boat mechanic for about 5 years now. People are using the lake for social distancing, so they were immediately 2-3 weeks behind as soon as his finals were over. Working sunup to sundown, but he is pulling in about $1400 per week till they get caught up. I never made but maybe a quarter of that in a week when I was his age.

CHIEF

Is this some kind of code language for "Chief Jr makes pornos"?

[hayden_horn 11,365]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Neighbor who teaches at UT just texted and said UT will open up in the fall on August 26, and then shut down after Thanksgiving (they know the students will pick it up traveling and bring it back), with reading/exams/etc. going remote for the rest of the semester.  Commencement ceremonies will be postponed until 2021.

I'm guessing some of the area school districts might follow suit, or at the least, have it as one of their options.

i just do not understand the hurry. it might be my newfound paranoia, but we don't even know what june and july are going to look like.

[CHIEF 5,095]

If you take every state west of the Mississippi, including the West Coast, minus Louisiana (Mardi Gras), they average up to about 10 deaths per 100k of population. New York and New Jersey have over 10x that amount, 142/100k and 121/100k. If you can't figure out relying on public transportation, heavy population density, and international flights coming in every hour caused this exact scenario, I don't know what to tell you. I can't understand people asking the same dumb question about what is different about NYC.

CHIEF

[CHIEF 5,095]

2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i just do not understand the hurry. it might be my newfound paranoia, but we don't even know what june and july are going to look like.

You are not going to be able to pass an upper level math, physics, or engineering class while taking it online. Students are going to have too many questions. No availability to go to labs and learn the practical skills. My kid already said if all classes are online, he will be sitting it out till campus reopens.

CHIEF

[bschoolprof 6,273]

i just do not understand the hurry. it might be my newfound paranoia, but we don't even know what june and july are going to look like.

The hurry is $$$. Enrollment will tank unless UT commits now to an in person semester.

The outlook for June and July is hot as fuck with a small chance of rona.

[utee94 15,866]

8 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

You are not going to be able to pass an upper level math, physics, or engineering class while taking it online. Students are going to have too many questions. No availability to go to labs and learn the practical skills. My kid already said if all classes are online, he will be sitting it out till campus reopens.

CHIEF

Yup.  I absolutely wouldn't pay for a semester of engineering school if, ahead of time, I believed there were any chance that ANY of it would be remote.