Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[deac_tracy 517]

4 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Have we actually made a serious attempt at doing contact tracing? How can something that has never happened be effective?

The Houston Heath Department is trying to create a contact tracing department. Got a call from a recruiter yesterday asking about interest. I don't live in Houston anymore and am happy with my current job so I declined. Would've been a great opportunity though. According to the recruiter, there are a lot of openings and the city wants to fill them as quickly as possible. Here's a list of the openings if anyone's interested or knows anyone that would be.

 

https://www.governmentjobs.com/careers/houston?keywords=contact tracing

[dcar00 14906]

38 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Intentional, not international.

 

not sure how that happened 

It was absolutely intentional "thats the joke".   I'm sure Crowe just loves it when people claim they fucked up.

Edited May 22, 2020 by dcar00

[freyguy 4365]

33 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Unpopular opinion.  The Bad News Bears (1976) is the greatest sports movie of all time.

Tanner Boyle:
All we got on this team are a buncha Jews, spics, n*ggers, pansies, and a booger-eatin' moron!

Ogilvie:
Tanner, I think you need to be reminded from time to time that you are one of the few people on this team who is not a Jew, spic, n*gger, pansy or booger-eating moron. So you'd better cool it or we may be disposed to beat the crap out of you.

[dcar00 14906]

interview with Crowe.  it was on purpose but for an interesting reason

The scene immediately cuts to Rat driving love interest Stacy, blasting Led Zeppelin’s “Kashmir,” off their “Physical Graffiti” album — a glaring mistake to the band’s Zep fanatics.

“There was some kind of publishing arrangement that we weren’t able to have the actual ‘Led Zeppelin IV’ album,” an amused Crowe told the Daily News. “But we were able to get ‘Kashmir.’ So the decision then was that Rat messed up,” he laughed.

[StruggleBus 3922]

23 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Cool. What is he currently doing to ensure that’s the case? 

[dcar00 14906]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

I thought this might be the case.

Take 100 people in a circle.  Add 1 more person who is infected with a virus and have everyone shake hands with everyone else.  The transmission of the virus is such that 2 people are infected (R0=2).  The original infectee becomes immune and everyone shakes hands again. An average of 3.92 people become infected.  The original person cannot become infected and the infectious people can not infect each other which removes 0.08 from the exponential number of 4. 

Keep going in that manner: 7.4, 12.8, 18.9, 20.8, 14.2, 5.7, 1.6, .4, .1 .... 

Eventually 89 total people infected out of 101 players.

-----

Impose a limit on round 2 and 3 where everyone in only allowed to shake 50 hands: only 3.84 people will get infected on both of thise rounds combined.  Instead of the original 11.3 people.

11.3 - 3.84 = 7.46 less infections, right? 

So we play out the game: 3.5, 6.4, 10.8, 15.9, 18.3, 14 3, 7.1, 2.5, 0.8, 0.2, 0.1 ....

Eventually 87 players get infected.  Only 2 less.

When we impose the limit on rounds 3 and 4, 85 total players get infected.

4/5: 81 players

-----

So the question we need to ask is in which "round" did we place our shutdown? Exactly where depends on what the sustainable reproduction rate of the virus is coming out of the shutdown, but my best stab right now would be the equivalent of Round 0.05, which is really close to a net-zero.  And earlier is worse, not better.

------

And I'm not saying there weren't valid reasons to shutdown when we did.  We didn't have much to work on at the time, and we probably did prevent some other city from becoming NYC2.  It's just neglible to the overall impact of this thing.

I think we need a China Virus math discussion thread.  this is the China Virus movie discussion thread.

[dcbc 14643]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

interview with Crowe.  it was on purpose but for an interesting reason

The scene immediately cuts to Rat driving love interest Stacy, blasting Led Zeppelin’s “Kashmir,” off their “Physical Graffiti” album — a glaring mistake to the band’s Zep fanatics.

“There was some kind of publishing arrangement that we weren’t able to have the actual ‘Led Zeppelin IV’ album,” an amused Crowe told the Daily News. “But we were able to get ‘Kashmir.’ So the decision then was that Rat messed up,” he laughed.

Add third option to above statement! 

[Deej 77673]

13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I think we need a China Virus math discussion thread.  this is the China Virus movie discussion thread.

We needed some stress relief. At least the movie discussion hasn't been political, yet. 

[El Diablo 4232]

The Stones, Zep, The Who are all in a room together. Mick has the COVID. How long before they all have the COVID?

[ChiTownDoc 21325]

11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Patios open in Chicago next Friday.  Hell fucking yes.  

Lol.  Not enough politics.  Mayor Lightfoot wants to show she’s in charge, not FatFuck, so it’s a maybe now.  Unbelievable - not really...pretty believable but still annoying af.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

42 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Cool. What is he currently doing to ensure that’s the case? 

Telling the states what they need to do.  I am not looking forward to these next four weeks.  

[Planet Houston 4949]

9 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

The Stones, Zep, The Who are all in a room together. Mick has the COVID. How long before they all have the COVID?

The answer is never. Keith Richards is certainly immune. 

[SHOOTER12 8883]

Dammit, masks vs no masks, all this frocking maffs (was told there wouldn't be any), we're all gonna die, it's just a big hoax Stiglitz on the loose, all the other shit....hell I feel like I'm taking crazy pills you sumbitches.

[Buzzrock 15116]

Population density could and is controlled by the government who sets the building and land codes?
The point is more likely a political play to point fingers and shift blame. This event was nothing like anything that had been faced before? How did we really know that we should (could) have locked things down in March. Better use to time and resources to work toward solutions then just trying to stir people up with sensationalism. 

Except for 1968. And 1918.

[Buzzrock 15116]

Hmm, that’s the first time I’ve noticed we’ve had three of these about 50 years apart.

Regarding the 36K: didn’t Fauci say that the majority of Americans are going to get C19? Has he changed his tune on that like he did on masks? If not then I would agree with those saying the 36K would just be delayed, not saved.

[utee94 16068]

11 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Hmm, that’s the first time I’ve noticed we’ve had three of these about 50 years apart.

Regarding the 36K: didn’t Fauci say that the majority of Americans are going to get C19? Has he changed his tune on that like he did on masks? If not then I would agree with those saying the 36K would just be delayed, not saved.

Yes, the general idea is that although the curve is flattened, the area under the curve still doesn't change significantly. It just takes longer to realize the full effect.  If hospitals had been overrun that would change the calculation, but for the most part they weren't.

I do believe that the time bought by social distancing and shutdown efforts has helped improve our medical workers' ability to treat and thus saved additional lives.  There is value that has been gained in that time delay, lessons learned like those @ChiTownDoc and others have mentioned including prone positioning and NOT putting patients on ventilators too quickly.  I believe that those measures have cut down on the total area under the curve-- the total deaths-- somewhat.  But I'm not sure it would come anywhere close to 36K.

 

 

[Enchubben 5598]

 

[atomheartbevo 90549]

3 hours ago, Incredulity said:

TIL Jennifer Jason Leigh’s father was the a-hole coach in Bad News Bears

He redeemed himself trying to save those two child actors when the helicopter accident happened.  I made the mistake of watching that video when I was younger. At least I think he was trying to save them. That's what I want to think.  It went down fast though.

[Dahobbs 18192]

41 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yes, the general idea is that although the curve is flattened, the area under the curve still doesn't change significantly. It just takes longer to realize the full effect.  If hospitals had been overrun that would change the calculation, but for the most part they weren't.

I do believe that the time bought by social distancing and shutdown efforts has helped improve our medical workers' ability to treat and thus saved additional lives.  There is value that has been gained in that time delay, lessons learned like those @ChiTownDoc and others have mentioned including prone positioning and NOT putting patients on ventilators too quickly.  I believe that those measures have cut down on the total area under the curve-- the total deaths-- somewhat.  But I'm not sure it would come anywhere close to 36K.

 

 

The area under the curve changes. The less steep the climb, the less you overshoot the herd immunity threshold. You are correct though, there isnt a 1 to 1 reduction. The goal of a reasonable plan should be to keep us at a low enough transmission rate so that further treatments and/or a vaccine are made available. If you're only looking to get herd immunity through infection, then you can reduce the overall death toll by slowing the spread, but the reduction is limited to 10 to 30 percent (just depends on the r0 of the disease).

[Rockwell Torrey 1364]

10 hours ago, Scary Stranger said:

I also have a contact in the intelligence community and he says "The crow flies at sunset.  The crow flies at sunset. The child's pencil is broken. The child's pencil is broken'  Take that as you will but its pretty clear whats going on.

"Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel"

[atomheartbevo 90549]

3 hours ago, Deej said:

My dad wasn't a movie theater guy. He only took me to two movies: The Bad News Bears and Smokey and the Bandit. 

He had good taste in 70s cinema.  He should have taken you to see Taxi Driver and Deer Hunter.

[utee94 16068]

 

17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The area under the curve changes. The less steep the climb, the less you overshoot the herd immunity threshold. You are correct though, there isnt a 1 to 1 reduction. The goal of a reasonable plan should be to keep us at a low enough transmission rate so that further treatments and/or a vaccine are made available. If you're only looking to get herd immunity through infection, then you can reduce the overall death toll by slowing the spread, but the reduction is limited to 10 to 30 percent (just depends on the r0 of the disease).

Eh, theoretically, maybe.  The truth is we don't know.  It could be that for this particular virus, herd immunity won't be reached until a very high threshold is met, one that is high enough that "overshooting" wasn't ever much of a possibility.  We really have no idea, and won't for quite some time.

Regardless I don't think a one-week delay would be the tipping point for thrusting us into that case of "overshooting" because, the one week delay did occur, and we didn't overshoot the threshold.  Bottom line is that I think it's at best unintentionally deceptive to suggest that a week's delay resulted in 36,000 deaths, rather than simply delaying them.

Edited May 22, 2020 by utee94

[atomheartbevo 90549]

8 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Have we actually made a serious attempt at doing contact tracing? How can something that has never happened be effective?

Early on, like around the time not long after SXSW was shut down, the City of Austin was pulling passenger lists of those flying in from areas  outside of the US that had known cases, and they were making contact with those folks, asking them to check their temperatures, asking them various questions, asking them to track any potential medical issues, etc.

I don't know if that falls quite into the realm of contact tracing, since that was just calling people who flew in from an area that met a certain criteria, but they were trying to get ahead of any potential problems and get it in the head of visitors from overseas (or returning Texans) to just be aware of any potential symptoms.

[Foosters 18226]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

 

Article quotes 1 doctor and 1 nurse from the same hospital about their experience at their hospital. That's some fine journalism.

[atomheartbevo 90549]

3 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Cool. What is he currently doing to ensure that’s the case? 

Ironically, he's under some kind of quarantine, due to being exposed somebody who tested positive.

[Sbbruin 22082]

5 hours ago, dcbc said:

I always thought that that was intentional to show how he was screwing up the date from the get-to.  It's a great transition.  Damone tells him when it comes to making out, Side 1 LZIV.  Immediate cut to Rat in the car with Stacy blasting Physical Graffiti.  Love it.

Cameron Crowe said he realized it in post production but said fuck it, but had no idea it would be such an issue.  said he would have redone that scene in retrospect.

[deac_tracy 517]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

 

In 2018, 48,344 people died from suicide in the US. We're not even in June yet and over 96,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19.  The lockdown definitely negatively affects the mental health of Americans and there'll probably be a suicide bump this year but the idea that it's affecting Americans to the point that suicides will outnumber COVID deaths, which is what that article is insinuating, is completely absurd. 

[InkaUtexas 26802]

1 hour ago, Foosters said:

Article quotes 1 doctor and 1 nurse from the same hospital about their experience at their hospital. That's some fine journalism.

The Washington Examiner at its best. 

[Trey3216 15450]

15 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Please list all the reasons that NYC (or any city or state) couldn't have enacted their own shelter in place rules, if as we know they could have saved 30k plus lives ?  ?

Exactly what is the chief responsibility of a governor or mayor if not the protection and welfare of its citizens ?  Are Governors, and mayors required to wait for federal intervention to protect their citizenry ?

 

I love the timeline that's been concocted in peoples minds about this unprecedented 21st c. pandemic.

 

 

Karen 1- “Do something!!!!!!!”

Karen 2- “We should have done something 5 days sooner!!!!!” 
 

Suzy “We can’t do that, it’s racist and xenophobic!! One Love!!!” 

[Homercles 10206]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

The Washington Examiner at its best. 

And a Fox News host.  Some of y’all go nuts over Hugo posting death totals, wound up over what it’s insinuating...yet we have ChickenSandwich posting Travco deaths and Enchubben with that bullshit.  
 

[El Diablo 4232]

10 hours ago, Enchubben said:

 

This is good, right? I mean obviously they were seeing more suicides than Coronavirus before Coronavirus and apparently that's still the case. So Rona defeated?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

18 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Please list all the reasons that NYC (or any city or state) couldn't have enacted their own shelter in place rules, if as we know they could have saved 30k plus lives ?  ?

Exactly what is the chief responsibility of a governor or mayor if not the protection and welfare of its citizens ?  Are Governors, and mayors required to wait for federal intervention to protect their citizenry ?

 

I love the timeline that's been concocted in peoples minds about this unprecedented 21st c. pandemic.

 

 

I find it very telling that those among you that say we should have shut down sooner can't or won't address these simple questions.  Nothing prevented NY , NY, Texas, Fla, American Samoa from acting on their own when things started going south.    Very interdasting......

[Guest Lobo]

12 hours ago, Deej said:

Fun fact.  Jennifer Jason Leigh's father was Vic Morrow. Vic was decapitated on the set of The Twilight Zone Movie the same year Fast Times was released. 

I just noticed this last time I watched "Twilight Zone: The Movie."  But when Vic Morrow's character is in Vietnam (the scene was edited so many times after the accident and released in myriad version---and understandably so)...you can overhear two U.S. soldiers say, "I told you we shouldn't have shot Lt. Neidermeyer", a brilliant callback by Landis to the credit-rolling scene from his "Animal House" movie that says Neidermeyer was killed by his own men in Vietnam.  

Back to Covid-19...CDC now estimates nearly 4/10 of us won't show any symptoms of Coronavirus if infected.  

[bigup2dahorns 3348]

10 min audio interview this morning

[BradInATX 9208]

32 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I find it very telling that those among you that say we should have shut down sooner can't or won't address these simple questions.  Nothing prevented NY , NY, Texas, Fla, American Samoa from acting on their own when things started going south.    Very interdasting......

Everyone is ignoring you because you're trying to passive aggressively turn this into a conversation that should be in the Cloak Room.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

7 hours ago, Foosters said:

Article quotes 1 doctor and 1 nurse from the same hospital about their experience at their hospital. That's some fine journalism.

It's on twitter therefore IT IS TRUTH AND CAN'T BE DISPUTED!!! 

[Buzzrock 15116]

I get that Washington Examiner is a rag and Laura Ingraham is CR. But even at one hospital, a year’s worth of suicides in four weeks is alarming.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

39 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Everyone is ignoring you because you're trying to passive aggressively turn this into a conversation that should be in the Cloak Room.

Yeah no. My post was a direct response to a post up thread that stated we could have saved 35, 000 lives if we'd shut down a week earlier, so take your lame attempt at dodging a legit question away.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[ChickenSandwich 9918]

2 hours ago, Homercles said:

And a Fox News host.  Some of y’all go nuts over Hugo posting death totals, wound up over what it’s insinuating...yet we have ChickenSandwich posting Travco deaths and Enchubben with that bullshit.  
 

Why would local relevant numbers with context be controversial? 
 

*especially since TC started opening back up. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[Buzzrock 15116]

I’m not exactly sure what the takeaway is here but the graphs are pretty.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-case-counts-in-50-states-indicate-vast-differences-11590148800

[ChickenSandwich 9918]

Just now, Buzzrock said:

I’m not exactly sure what the takeaway is here but the graphs are pretty.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-case-counts-in-50-states-indicate-vast-differences-11590148800

Paywall

[Enchubben 5598]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

I get that Washington Examiner is a rag and Laura Ingraham is CR. But even at one hospital, a year’s worth of suicides in four weeks is alarming.

Yea that was the point. If I had just linked the article rather than who tweeted it I wouldn't have sounded the Fox News alarm.

Point being as difficult is has been to even confidently state the number of deaths directly related to Covid19 - imagine how impossible it is to determine the amount of drug and alcohol abuse, crime, death and economic loss there is from lockdown that will span long after KungFlu is the headline each day.  I don't know what the answer or solution is, but there is going to be a significant portion of the population that will need mental health and counseling as a result of all of this.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

9 hours ago, utee94 said:

 

Eh, theoretically, maybe.  The truth is we don't know.  It could be that for this particular virus, herd immunity won't be reached until a very high threshold is met, one that is high enough that "overshooting" wasn't ever much of a possibility.  We really have no idea, and won't for quite some time.

Regardless I don't think a one-week delay would be the tipping point for thrusting us into that case of "overshooting" because, the one week delay did occur, and we didn't overshoot the threshold.  Bottom line is that I think it's at best unintentionally deceptive to suggest that a week's delay resulted in 36,000 deaths, rather than simply delaying them.

That’s not how I read it- It’s possible that I’m way over my skis on the math but if you flatten the curve the R0 declines. If the R0 declines, wouldn’t the herd immunity threshold?

[Hpara759 1788]

They did mass testing at the Seaboard Plant (hog processing) in Guymon Ok. (Texas County) ...pop: 21,000  there are 820 cases there. This is one of the reasons the Amarillo numbers are so high, they are in the Amarillo TV viewing area......

 

https://www.myhighplains.com/news/oklahoma/seaboard-foods-release-update-following-this-weeks-mass-covid-19-testing-at-guymon-plant/

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

 

2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I find it very telling that those among you that say we should have shut down sooner can't or won't address these simple questions.  Nothing prevented NY , NY, Texas, Fla, American Samoa from acting on their own when things started going south.    Very interdasting...

Fart noise

Edited May 22, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Dahobbs 18192]

9 hours ago, utee94 said:

 

Eh, theoretically, maybe.  The truth is we don't know.  It could be that for this particular virus, herd immunity won't be reached until a very high threshold is met, one that is high enough that "overshooting" wasn't ever much of a possibility.  We really have no idea, and won't for quite some time.

Regardless I don't think a one-week delay would be the tipping point for thrusting us into that case of "overshooting" because, the one week delay did occur, and we didn't overshoot the threshold.  Bottom line is that I think it's at best unintentionally deceptive to suggest that a week's delay resulted in 36,000 deaths, rather than simply delaying them.

I agree the one week delay didn't result in us overshooting the herd immunity threshold and so it shouldn't have a substantial impact on overall deaths IF we were to pursue a strategy of gaining herd immunity through infection as opposed to vaccine. But, I also don't see any reason why that should be our strategy. Instead, our strategy should be to keep the keep R value of the disease near or below 1, so that instead of dealing with an ever increasing number of new cases, we have a stable or declining number of new cases. That would serve the dual purpose of preventing healthcare shortage AND reducing the overall percentage of the population exposed prior to development of a vaccine. If we purse that strategy, then the one week delay did result in additional deaths because it increased the number of people initially exposed. And, that in turn also increases the number of daily new cases we'll have even if we get the R value to 1 or below. So, not only did we get an initial increase in deaths, but we also end up with increased number of ongoing deaths. 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21325]

8 hours ago, deac_tracy said:

In 2018, 48,344 people died from suicide in the US. We're not even in June yet and over 96,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19.  The lockdown definitely negatively affects the mental health of Americans and there'll probably be a suicide bump this year but the idea that it's affecting Americans to the point that suicides will outnumber COVID deaths, which is what that article is insinuating, is completely absurd. 

Also suicide is not nearly as contagious.  Won’t say it’s not contagious at all though.  

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13386]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

I get that Washington Examiner is a rag and Laura Ingraham is CR. But even at one hospital, a year’s worth of suicides in four weeks is alarming.

I was listening to a military leader speak earlier this week and he stated they’ve had a record number of suicides in the past month. These are people who are employed and getting paid their normal salaries. Getting back to normal is definitely not just about money.

This life altering event affects everyone differently. The fallout from social distancing, being locked up in our house for weeks at a time, financial hardship, general fear and anxiety, etc will lead to more suicides, drug/alcohol dependency, and domestic violence. That’s why I’ve believed all along that there’s not one correct path in responding to something like this. COVID deaths are in our faces every day. The other victims may be talked about periodically, studies will be done in a decade or so, but the true impact may never be known.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13386]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Also suicide is not nearly as contagious.  Won’t say it’s not contagious at all though.  

My training has indicated children of parents who commit suicide are 50% more likely to take their own lives.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Casual Encounter