Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[DaysOff 7,976]

Anything been published on the relative safety of commercial air travel over the past couple of months?  I haven’t read anything about a plane being a vector. 

Planes have never been cleaner and the air doesn't move longitudinally down the cabin. You're sharing air with your row. If you know them; you're safe. Buy an airplane ride.

[Pato del Muerto 52,616]

4 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Anything been published on the relative safety of commercial air travel over the past couple of months?  I haven’t read anything about a plane being a vector. 

Planes have never been cleaner and the air doesn't move longitudinally down the cabin. You're sharing air with your row. If you know them; you're safe. Buy an airplane ride.

She would be flying solo to see us. On United. And you guys lock yourselves away from the cabin. You been deadheading lately?

Edited June 3, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

On United.

Oh shit. Corona might be the best thing she catches.

[dcar00 14,378]

1 hour ago, BNB said:

Are you saying posting a new article about investigations into and talk about criticizing the WORLD Health Organization is political? 

no.  the sarcasm meter is busted. hint: replace you know with FUCk CHINA

[dcar00 14,378]

1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

So that anit-Hydroxychloroquine study that the WHO (they did get fooled again)and the media heavily promoted turned out to be bogus and created by a scam organization, that fooled even the Lancet and the NE Journal of Medicine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose (11) employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

  Reveal hidden contents

The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.

A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.

Data it claims to have legitimately obtained from more than a thousand hospitals worldwide formed the basis of scientific articles that have led to changes in Covid-19 treatment policies in Latin American countries. It was also behind a decision by the WHO and research institutes around the world to halt trials of the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine.

Two of the world’s leading medical journals – the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine – published studies based on Surgisphere data. The studies were co-authored by the firm’s chief executive, Sapan Desai.

Late on Tuesday, after being approached by the Guardian, the Lancet released an “expression of concern” about its published study. The New England Journal of Medicine has also issued a similar notice.

An independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has now been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere because of “concerns that have been raised about the reliability of the database”.

The Guardian’s investigation has found:

• A search of publicly available material suggests several of Surgisphere’s employees have little or no data or scientific background. An employee listed as a science editor appears to be a science fiction author and fantasy artist. Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess.

• The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.

• While Surgisphere claims to run one of the largest and fastest hospital databases in the world, it has almost no online presence. Its Twitter handle has fewer than 170 followers, with no posts between October 2017 and March 2020.

• Until Monday, the “get in touch” link on Surgisphere’s homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website, raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database.

• Desai has been named in three medical malpractice suits, unrelated to the Surgisphere database. In an interview with the Scientist, Desai previously described the allegations as “unfounded”.

• In 2008, Desai launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website indiegogo promoting a wearable “next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”. The device never came to fruition.

• Desai’s Wikipedia page has been deleted following questions about Surgisphere and his history.

Doubts over Lancet study

 

Questions surrounding Surgisphere have been growing in the medical community for the past few weeks.

On 22 May the Lancet published a blockbuster peer-reviewed study which found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, which has been promoted by Donald Trump, was associated with a higher mortality rate in Covid-19 patients and increased heart problems.

Trump, much to the dismay of the scientific community, had publicly touted hydroxychloroquine as a “wonder drug” despite no evidence of its efficacy for treating Covid-19.

The Lancet study, which listed Desai as one of the co-authors, claimed to have analysed Surgisphere data collected from nearly 15,000 patients with Covid-19, admitted to 1,200 hospitals around the world, who received hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination with antibiotics.

The negative findings made global news and prompted the WHO to halt the hydroxychloroquine arm of its global trials.

But only days later Guardian Australia revealed glaring errors in the Australian data included in the study. The study said researchers gained access to data through Surgisphere from five hospitals, recording 600 Australian Covid-19 patients and 73 Australian deaths as of 21 April.

But data from Johns Hopkins University shows only 67 deaths from Covid-19 had been recorded in Australia by 21 April. The number did not rise to 73 until 23 April. Desai said one Asian hospital had accidentally been included in the Australian data, leading to an overestimate of cases there. The Lancet published a small retraction related to the Australian findings after the Guardian’s story, its only amendment to the study so far.

The Guardian has since contacted five hospitals in Melbourne and two in Sydney, whose cooperation would have been essential for the Australian patient numbers in the database to be reached. All denied any role in such a database, and said they had never heard of Surgisphere. Desai did not respond to requests to comment on their statements.

Another study using the Surgisphere database, again co-authored by Desai, found the anti-parasite drug ivermectin reduced death rates in severely ill Covid-19 patients. It was published online in the Social Science Research Network e-library, before peer-review or publication in a medical journal, and prompted the Peruvian government to add ivermectin to its national Covid-19 therapeutic guidelines.

 

The New England Journal of Medicine also published a peer-reviewed Desai study based on Surgisphere data, which included data from Covid-19 patients from 169 hospitals in 11 countries in Asia, Europe and North America. It found common heart medications known as angiotensin-converting–enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers were not associated with a higher risk of harm in Covid-19 patients.

On Wednesday, the NEJM and the Lancet published an expression of concern about the hydroxychloroquine study, which listed respected vascular surgeon Mandeep Mehra as the lead author and Desai as co-author.

Lancet editor Richard Horton told the Guardian: “Given the questions raised about the reliability of the data gathered by Surgisphere, we have today issued an Expression of Concern, pending further investigation.

“An independent data audit is currently underway and we trust that this review, which should be completed within the next week, will tell us more about the status of the findings reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra and colleagues.”

Surgisphere ‘came out of nowhere’

One of the questions that has most baffled the scientific community is how Surgisphere, established by Desai in 2008 as a medical education company that published textbooks, became the owner of a powerful international database. That database, despite only being announced by Surgisphere recently, boasts access to data from 96,000 patients in 1,200 hospitals around the world.

When contacted by the Guardian, Desai said his company employed just 11 people. The employees listed on LinkedIn were recorded on the site as having joined Surgisphere only two months ago. Several did not appear to have a scientific or statistical background, but mention expertise in strategy, copywriting, leadership and acquisition.

Dr James Todaro, who runs MedicineUncensored, a website that publishes the results of hydroxychloroquine studies, said: “Surgisphere came out of nowhere to conduct perhaps the most influential global study in this pandemic in the matter of a few weeks.

“It doesn’t make sense,” he said. “It would require many more researchers than it claims to have for this expedient and of multinational study to be possible.”

Desai told the Guardian: “Surgisphere has been in business since 2008. Our healthcare data analytics services started about the same time and have continued to grow since that time. We use a great deal of artificial intelligence and machine learning to automate this process as much as possible, which is the only way a task like this is even possible.”

It is not clear from the methodology in the studies that used Surgisphere data, or from the Surgisphere website itself, how the company was able to put in place data-sharing agreements from so many hospitals worldwide, including those with limited technology, and to reconcile different languages and coding systems, all while staying within the regulatory, data-protection and ethical rules of each country.

Desai said Surgisphere and its QuartzClinical content management system was part of a research collaboration initiated “several years ago”, though he did not specify when.

“Surgisphere serves as a data aggregator and performs data analysis on this data,” he said. “We are not responsible for the source data, thus the labor intensive task required for exporting the data from an Electronic Health Records, converting it into the format required by our data dictionary, and fully deidentifying the data is done by the healthcare partner.”

This appears to contradict the claim on the QuartzClinical website that it does all the work, and “successfully integrates your electronic health record, financial system, supply chain, and quality programs into one platform”. Desai did not explain this apparent contradiction when the Guardian put it to him.

Desai said the way Surgisphere obtained data was “always done in compliance with local laws and regulations. We never receive any protected health information or individually identifiable information.”

Peter Ellis, the chief data scientist of Nous Group, an international management consultancy that does data integration projects for government departments, expressed concern that Surgisphere database was “almost certainly a scam”.

“It is not something that any hospital could realistically do,” he said. “De-identifying is not just a matter of knocking off the patients’ names, it is a big and difficult process. I doubt hospitals even have capability to do it appropriately. It is the sort of thing national statistics agencies have whole teams working on, for years.”

“There’s no evidence online of [Surgisphere] having any analytical software earlier than a year ago. It takes months to get people to even look into joining these databases, it involves network review boards, security people, and management. It just doesn’t happen with a sign-up form and a conversation.”

None of the information from Desai’s database has yet been made public, including the names of any of the hospitals, despite the Lancet being among the many signatories to a statement on data-sharing for Covid-19 studies. The Lancet study is now disputed by 120 doctors.

When the Guardian put a detailed list of concerns to Desai about the database, the study findings and his background, he responded: “There continues to be a fundamental misunderstanding about what our system is and how it works”.

“There are also a number of inaccuracies and unrelated connections that you are trying to make with a clear bias toward attempting to discredit who we are and what we do,” he said. “We do not agree with your premise or the nature of what you have put together, and I am sad to see that what should have been a scientific discussion has been denigrated into this sort of discussion.”

‘The peak of human evolution’

An examination of Desai’s background found that the vascular surgeon has been named in three medical malpractice suits in the US, two of them filed in November 2019. In one case, a lawsuit filed by a patient, Joseph Vitagliano, accused Desai and Northwest Community Hospital in Illinois, where he worked until recently, of being “careless and negligent”, leading to permanent damage following surgery. 

Northwest Community Hospital confirmed that Desai had been employed there since June 2016 but had voluntarily resigned on 10 February 2020 “for personal reasons”.

“Dr Desai’s clinical privileges with NCH were not suspended, revoked or otherwise limited by NCH,” a spokeswoman said. The hospital declined to comment on the malpractice suits. Desai said in the interview with the Scientist that he deemed any lawsuit against him to be “unfounded”

Brigham and Women’s Hospital, the institution affiliated with the hydroxychloroquine study and its lead author, Mandeep Mehra, said in a statement: “Independent of Surgisphere, the remaining co-authors of the recent studies published in The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine have initiated independent reviews of the data used in both papers after learning of the concerns that have been raised about the reliability of the database”. 

Mehra said he had routinely underscored the importance and value of randomised, clinical trials and that such trials were necessary before any conclusions could be reached. “I eagerly await word from the independent audits, the results of which will inform any further action,” he said.

Desai’s now-deleted Wikipedia page said he held a doctorate in law and a PhD in anatomy and cell biology, as well as his medical qualifications. A biography of Desai on a brochure for an international medical conference says he has held multiple physician leadership roles in clinical practice, and that he is “a certified lean six sigma master black belt”.

It is not the first time Desai has launched projects with ambitious claims. In 2008, he launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website indiegogo promoting a “next generation human augmentation device” called Neurodynamics Flow, which he said “can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”.

“With its sophisticated programming, optimal neural induction points, and tried and true results, Neurodynamics Flow allows you to rise to the peak of human evolution,” the description said. The device raised a few hundred dollars, and never eventuated.

Ellis, the chief data scientist of Nous Group, said it was unclear why Desai made such bold claims about his products given how likely it was that the global research community would scrutinise them.

“My first reaction is it was to draw attention to his firm, Ellis said. “But it seems really obvious that this would backfire.”

Today Prof Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, said: “I welcome the statement from the Lancet, which follows a similar statement by the NEJM regarding a study by the same group on cardiovascular drugs and COVID-19. 

“The very serious concerns being raised about the validity of the papers by Mehra et al need to be recognised and actioned urgently, and ought to bring about serious reflection on whether the quality of editorial and peer review during the pandemic has been adequate. Scientific publication must above all be rigorous and honest. In an emergency, these values are needed more than ever.”

 

no fucking way, totally shocked.  how could this happen???

[atomheartbevo 89,822]

19 hours ago, Bevo said:

Keep posting photos of the woman from Tron....

[Buzzrock 14,948]

Planes have never been cleaner and the air doesn't move longitudinally down the cabin. You're sharing air with your row. If you know them; you're safe. Buy an airplane ride.

Where are the intakes for the overhead vents?

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Where are the intakes for the overhead vents?

 

On the wings.

[Buzzrock 14,948]

Interesting stat from the CDC: nationwide we are at 103% of expected deaths. That is for all causes compared to the same timeframe in 2017-2019. So 3% more people have died than we expected without Corona.

Certainly there are some offsets with lower car crash deaths. But with a million total deaths so far from all causes it wouldn’t be a big needle mover.

Might lend credence to the idea that Covid largely kills people who were going to die within a few months anyway.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Interesting stat from the CDC: nationwide we are at 103% of expected deaths. That is for all causes compared to the same timeframe in 2017-2019. So 3% more people have died than we expected without Corona.

Certainly there are some offsets with lower car crash deaths. But with a million total deaths so far from all causes it wouldn’t be a big needle mover.

Might lend credence to the idea that Covid largely kills people who were going to die within a few months anyway.

Freakonomics man.

[LebongJames 1,815]

2 hours ago, Hpara759 said:

I know that one of the St Davids system hospital's has more COVID patients in  their ICU currently than they have had since the start

So 5 instead of 3

[Armybrat 40,920]

59 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Anything been published on the relative safety of commercial air travel over the past couple of months?  I haven’t read anything about a plane being a vector. 

Planes have never been cleaner and the air doesn't move longitudinally down the cabin. You're sharing air with your row. If you know them; you're safe. Buy an airplane ride.

I did, for July 6th.... to Las Vegas.

[dcar00 14,378]

13 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Interesting stat from the CDC: nationwide we are at 103% of expected deaths. That is for all causes compared to the same timeframe in 2017-2019. So 3% more people have died than we expected without Corona.

Certainly there are some offsets with lower car crash deaths. But with a million total deaths so far from all causes it wouldn’t be a big needle mover.

Might lend credence to the idea that Covid largely kills people who were going to die within a few months anyway.

haven't looked at the site in a while but saw this on the CDC.gov.  the below contradicts this as it relates to "probables" https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/icd/COVID-19-guidelines-final.pdf

COVID-19 deaths are identified using a new ICD–10 code. When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

___________________________________

[BNB 100]

So, in the last week I have read an article stating:

More evidence backs smokers are less likely to get bad Covid symptoms

And

And the Italy doctor for the President/Minister???  of Italy stating that the virus is weakening.     (strain is not as strong as it used to be?)

 

Hadn't seen any discussion on that here, too lazy to quote sources.

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by BNB

[dcar00 14,378]

I couldn't find it but has the CDC posted an average age of death?

[StruggleBus 3,922]

7 minutes ago, BNB said:

So, in the last week I have read an article stating:

More evidence backs smokers are less likely to get bad Covid symptoms

And

And the Italy doctor for the President/Minister???  of Italy stating that the virus is weakening.     (strain is not as strong as it used to be?)

 

Hadn't seen any discussion on that here, too lazy to quote sources.

 

I've been craving some Marlboro reds for about 20 years. Hmmm

[BradInATX 9,208]

So, in the last week I have read an article stating:
More evidence backs smokers are less likely to get bad Covid symptoms
And
And the Italy doctor for the President/Minister???  of Italy stating that the virus is weakening.     (strain is not as strong as it used to be?)
 
Hadn't seen any discussion on that here, too lazy to quote sources.
 

Saw the one about smoking as well. Also too lazy to link. Good talk.

[BrazilHorn 6,635]

39 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

So 5 instead of 3

Travis county has a 7d moving average of 89 hospitalizations and 38 ICU admissions

Looking at data for the last 7 days independently there hasn't been a big swing up or down in the data set

Edited June 3, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[elfenix 34,338]

"Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess."

What's her onlyfans?

[Texas Jeff 1,945]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Absolutely. But you should also note that Travis is back in the orange - hopefully due to testing.

Travis County's website shows a breakdown by zip code and shows an ethnic breakdown of who is in the hospital.  Since April, the percentage of hospitalized that are Hispanic has risen and the number of cases in poorer zip codes is larger than counts in wealthier areas.  North Austin, south/southeast Austin, and Pflugerville have the largest counts.

If that is true, then cases may be rising among folks that have to do physical labor to survive.  They are also the least able to afford masks or have healthcare.  A positive test means no work, which means no money.  We aren't set up as a society to give this population paid time off to let the virus burn out, and they are choosing to work and take their chances with COVID.

If we could magically change the world tomorrow so that a positive test resulted in an automatic two week paid vacation for anyone, I think we would see the spread slow below the 1.0 rate and cases start to drop to zero.

[LebongJames 1,815]

1 minute ago, Texas Jeff said:

Travis County's website shows a breakdown by zip code and shows an ethnic breakdown of who is in the hospital.  Since April, the percentage of hospitalized that are Hispanic has risen and the number of cases in poorer zip codes is larger than counts in wealthier areas.  North Austin, south/southeast Austin, and Pflugerville have the largest counts.

If that is true, then cases may be rising among folks that have to do physical labor to survive.  They are also the least able to afford masks or have healthcare.  A positive test means no work, which means no money.  We aren't set up as a society to give this population paid time off to let the virus burn out, and they are choosing to work and take their chances with COVID.

If we could magically change the world tomorrow so that a positive test resulted in an automatic two week paid vacation for anyone, I think we would see the spread slow below the 1.0 rate and cases start to drop to zero.

That’s 100% what’s happening. I run sales and more of the office stuff for a mechanical contractor here in Austin. I used to go into the shop multiple times per week. I have not been in since early March.
 

We have not slowed down. Our full time supervisors and production manager still go in but not in the morning rush. There is nothing we can do about the warehouse and subs picking up materials, they have to come to the shop every morning. We check temperatures daily and have provided masks. One thing. We have noticed as only one guy from a crew comes in because the don’t want to risk getting their temperatures taken and not be sent with work. We do SF so distancing on the job is fine. The real hot beds are the Mf and commercial jobs. The other thing is a lot of subs live with a lot of other essential workers and they are all still spreading out over the city and coming back home every night in crammed living situations.

[BabaYaga 15,328]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

Might lend credence to the idea that Covid largely kills people who were going to die within a few months anyway.

It does when you factor the average age of COVID deaths is north of 80.  The average age of "death" in the US is mid 70's.  Then you reconcile the number of cases impacting elderly @ nursing homes, and layer that with this:

• 65% died within 1 year of nursing home admission.
• 53% died within 6 months of nursing home

Those places are rough.  

[bolverk 29,728]

23 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Travis County's website shows a breakdown by zip code and shows an ethnic breakdown of who is in the hospital.  Since April, the percentage of hospitalized that are Hispanic has risen and the number of cases in poorer zip codes is larger than counts in wealthier areas.  North Austin, south/southeast Austin, and Pflugerville have the largest counts.

If that is true, then cases may be rising among folks that have to do physical labor to survive.  They are also the least able to afford masks or have healthcare.  A positive test means no work, which means no money.  We aren't set up as a society to give this population paid time off to let the virus burn out, and they are choosing to work and take their chances with COVID.

If we could magically change the world tomorrow so that a positive test resulted in an automatic two week paid vacation for anyone, I think we would see the spread slow below the 1.0 rate and cases start to drop to zero.

 

15 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

That’s 100% what’s happening. I run sales and more of the office stuff for a mechanical contractor here in Austin. I used to go into the shop multiple times per week. I have not been in since early March.
 

We have not slowed down. Our full time supervisors and production manager still go in but not in the morning rush. There is nothing we can do about the warehouse and subs picking up materials, they have to come to the shop every morning. We check temperatures daily and have provided masks. One thing. We have noticed as only one guy from a crew comes in because the don’t want to risk getting their temperatures taken and not be sent with work. We do SF so distancing on the job is fine. The real hot beds are the Mf and commercial jobs. The other thing is a lot of subs live with a lot of other essential workers and they are all still spreading out over the city and coming back home every night in crammed living situations.

Both of these make a whole lot of sense and what I (and others) have been suspecting. Good posts and thanks for sharing.

[BabaYaga 15,328]

24 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

We aren't set up as a society to give this population paid time off to let the virus burn out, and they are choosing to work and take their chances with COVID.

I know my wife's fuckup sister would be licking every doorknob she could find to get a paid 2 weeks off......

[Guest Lobo]

How is Roberta doing?  

[Scary Stranger 1,715]

22 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

That’s 100% what’s happening. I run sales and more of the office stuff for a mechanical contractor here in Austin. I used to go into the shop multiple times per week. I have not been in since early March.
 

We have not slowed down. Our full time supervisors and production manager still go in but not in the morning rush. There is nothing we can do about the warehouse and subs picking up materials, they have to come to the shop every morning. We check temperatures daily and have provided masks. One thing. We have noticed as only one guy from a crew comes in because the don’t want to risk getting their temperatures taken and not be sent with work. We do SF so distancing on the job is fine. The real hot beds are the Mf and commercial jobs. The other thing is a lot of subs live with a lot of other essential workers and they are all still spreading out over the city and coming back home every night in crammed multi-generation living situations.

fixed with another probable factor to consider. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

41 minutes ago, elfenix said:

"Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess."

Cam model and disaster scientist?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

27 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Those places are rough.  

Yeah. Once people reach the 'nursing home' stage of life, it's ballgame. 

[BabaYaga 15,328]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah. Once people reach the 'nursing home' stage of life, it's ballgame. 

Researching furiously for MIL now......

[BradInATX 9,208]

28 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Both of these make a whole lot of sense and what I (and others) have been suspecting. Good posts and thanks for sharing.

I definitely appreciate looking at new angles, but this whole turn towards "it's blue collar labor who doesn't want to get tested" seems pretty speculative. You guys are saying that laborers and craftsmen, who trend younger and healthier, are showing up to hospitals in big numbers because they're working through the virus and getting sick because, I guess they're over-exerting? No snark, I'm trying to understand what you guys are saying.

[ChiTownDoc 21,174]

39 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I know my wife's fuckup sister would be licking every doorknob she could find to get a paid 2 weeks off......

Pics?  I might be able to help.  

[Royalfan5 2,355]

On the livestock front, fresh beef prices continue to slide, and now are only about 30% ahead of normal, while packers are about back to 97% of normal capacity. Fresh pork is back to near normal seasonally, with about 93% capacity running now. I had one of my pork clients tell me he is finally shipping iso weans that were backed up three weeks, and that he wouldn't need to put any future hogs down. 

[LebongJames 1,815]

16 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I definitely appreciate looking at new angles, but this whole turn towards "it's blue collar labor who doesn't want to get tested" seems pretty speculative. You guys are saying that laborers and craftsmen, who trend younger and healthier, are showing up to hospitals in big numbers because they're working through the virus and getting sick because, I guess they're over-exerting? No snark, I'm trying to understand what you guys are saying.

Not saying they are the ones showing up to hospitals, but if you look at some data they could be spreading it at a higher rate than any other parts of our society. As my post points out, there is a divide. I have worked remotely for 3 months, our other guys have shifted schedules to limit exposure. Our subs have to come by the warehouse every morning. There is no way to shift the business model.
 

.I strongly believe that most of the hysteria is overblown and testing positive doesn’t necessarily mean much. Also if Texas is lumping antibody rest in as well it’s completely useless. But our subs are probably spreading to more at risk population. 

Here is an excerpt from the Austin Business Journal:

 

Targeted testing of about 127 people occurred at two different construction sites on May 7 and 8. The portion of tests that came back positive for Covid-19 was 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively.

Escott said that may seem like a low number, but local drive-thru testing has a positive testing rate around 2.3%.

"So this is more than triple the rest of the community's rate of positivity," Escott said. "So this is concerning. This does indicate that we need further testing in this community."

Escott said they've found "some challenges associated with the testing at construction sites," citing ongoing concerns about the inability to work after a positive Covid-19 test.

"Quite frankly, there's a disincentive right now for people to get tested," Escott said. "Because if they test positive, then they're out of work and, in some circumstances, they don't have assurances of a paycheck."

Edited June 3, 2020 by LebongJames

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, LebongJames said:

Not saying they are the ones showing up to hospitals, but if you look at some data they could spreading it at a higher rate than any other parts of our society. As my post points out, there is divide. I have worked remotely for 3 months, our other guys have shifted schedules to limit exposure. Our subs have to come by the warehouse every morning.
 

I strongly believe that most of the hysteria is overblown and testing positive doesn’t necessarily mean much. Also if Texas is lumping antibody rest in as well it’s completely useless. But our subs are probably spreading to more at risk population. 
 

Here is an excerpt from the Austin Business Journal:

 

Targeted testing of about 127 people occurred at two different construction sites on May 7 and 8. The portion of tests that came back positive for Covid-19 was 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively.

Escott said that may seem like a low number, but local drive-thru testing has a positive testing rate around 2.3%.

"So this is more than triple the rest of the community's rate of positivity," Escott said. "So this is concerning. This does indicate that we need further testing in this community."

Escott said they've found "some challenges associated with the testing at construction sites," citing ongoing concerns about the inability to work after a positive Covid-19 test.

"Quite frankly, there's a disincentive right now for people to get tested," Escott said. "Because if they test positive, then they're out of work and, in some circumstances, they don't have assurances of a paycheck."

 

Got you. And yeah, that makes sense. Like you, I don't take much stock in the number of cases as it's a proxy for a lot of things (mostly number of tests), but deaths and hospitalizations are worth paying attention to. I wouldn't expect to see a bunch of relatively young and in-shape laborers to spike either of those numbers, but if they are spreading it to family and friends, they could definitely be contributing to the spread. Thanks for clarifying.

[DaysOff 7,976]

She would be flying solo to see us. On United. And you guys lock yourselves away from the cabin. You been deadheading lately?

Haven't worked in 3 months actually.

[BabaYaga 15,328]

6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

She would be flying solo to see us. On United. And you guys lock yourselves away from the cabin. You been deadheading lately?

Haven't worked in 3 months actually.

[utee94 15,868]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

She would be flying solo to see us. On United. And you guys lock yourselves away from the cabin. You been deadheading lately?

Haven't worked in 3 months actually.

username checks out

 

[ChickenSandwich 9,853]

Update 6/3/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Kung Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

5/30: 93 deaths

5/31: 93 deaths

6/1:   93 deaths

6/2:   93 deaths

6/3:  93 deaths

Last Five Days: +1 

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

5/30: Hp - 79, ICU - 39, Vent - 19

5/31: Hp - 79, ICU - 34, Vent - 19

6/1:  Hp: - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/2:  Hp - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/3: Hp - 93, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

Last Five Days: Hp: +14, ICU: +2, Vent: +2

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 6/3/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 52,121 (53.3%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           45,690

Total:                                                           97,810

Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 24,023

NJ: 11,880

Mass: 7,152

Pennsylvania: 5,667

Michigan: 5,334

(Dropped out Illinois: 5,270)

Total: 54,056 (55.3% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

[XYZ 2,154]

It's good to see that the hospitalizations and the ICU count are holding steady.

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

Any idea on the accuracy of antibody testing?  Any improvements?

That can be a game changer. 
 

@ChiTownDoc

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Last update said +9 HPs right? 

[ChiTownDoc 21,174]

8 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Any idea on the accuracy of antibody testing?  Any improvements?

That can be a game changer. 
 

@ChiTownDoc

Getting better.  But still a million not so reputable companies selling shitty ones.  It’s a real problem.  

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Getting better.  But still a million not so reputable companies selling shitty ones.  It’s a real problem.  

My kids are going to Camp Ozark next weekend.  So they have to get a test.  Not sure whether it is a antibody test.  

[ChickenSandwich 9,853]

29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Last update said +9 HPs right? 

Yes

[ChiTownDoc 21,174]

31 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

My kids are going to Camp Ozark next weekend.  So they have to get a test.  Not sure whether it is a antibody test.  

Prob active infection PCR test.  Damn nasal swab.  You can also get antibody test likely at same time.  Your doc can call it in.  Easy.  

[utee94 15,868]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

iProb active infection PCR test.  Damn nasal swab.  You can also get antibody test likely at same time.  Your doc can call it in.  Easy.  

I got tested Monday, my doc could do the nasal swab in drivethru fashion but sent me to a nearby lab for the blood draw antibody test.  I think it's because they don't want people coming into their office since they see well patients there, too.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,174]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I got tested Monday, my doc could do the nasal swab in drivethru fashion but sent me to a nearby lab for the blood draw antibody test.  I think it's because they don't want people coming into their office since they see well patients there, too.

 

Yep.  Some places do both.  But totally makes sense why yours split em up.  We only do antibody test in house.  No PCR

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,120]

5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

I know my wife's fuckup sister would be licking every doorknob she could find to get a paid 2 weeks off......

Tell us how you know she’s willing to lick anything for easy money.

[DDD Dad 14,352]

Yes

That doesn’t sound flat (but 9 is certainly better than 10-20-30-etc)

[DDD Dad 14,352]

Tell us how you know she’s willing to lick anything for easy money.

Depends. How much does she make in 2 weeks?