Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Let me be clearer.  No chance in hell I’d go either place, COVID or not.  But what I meant was this- if I set foot in a water park (and I worked at WaterWorld way back), I am already assuming a crazy number of disease risks aside from COVID.  I am not effectively sharing bathwater with 20,000 strangers. 

Heard that. You should check out Great Wolf Lodge. I'd imagine that place makes Schlitterbahn look like a sanitary surgery center.

Edited June 10, 2020 by BradInATX

[Skipper 6133]

I've seen the headlines about Texas hospitalizations spiking.  Including Houston, etc.   But it's completely non-existent in Dallas.   Per data released yesterday still entirely flat.  Now a big caveat that relatively accurate data seems to trail by 10-14 days (as I've outlined in prior posts) so I've somewhat circled reports next week as to when we may really see more of a trend, but Dallas also started releasing stats on "presumed positive" hospitalizations (which in theory would detect a trend before confirmed data) and that also remains flat.   Not sure why Dallas isn't seeing a spike if other places are.  I can't imagine the population here is distancing more than others.  

[utee94 15811]

1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Seems like a problem 

 

On 6/6/2020 at 9:07 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Update 6/5/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Kung Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

6/1:   93 deaths

6/2:   93 deaths

6/3:  93 deaths

6/4: 95 deaths

6/5: 97 deaths

Last Five Days: +4

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

6/1:  Hp: - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/2:  Hp - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/3: Hp - 93, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/4: Hp - 91, ICU - 38, Vent - 20

6/5: Hp - 88, ICU - 37, Vent - 22

Last Five Days: Hp: -9, ICU: -4, Vent: +1

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 6/3/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 52,121 (53.3%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           45,690

Total:                                                           97,810

Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 24,023

NJ: 11,880

Mass: 7,152

Pennsylvania: 5,667

Michigan: 5,334

(Dropped out Illinois: 5,270)

Total: 54,056 (55.3% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

 

41 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've seen the headlines about Texas hospitalizations spiking.  Including Houston, etc.   But it's completely non-existent in Dallas.   Per data released yesterday still entirely flat.  Now a big caveat that relatively accurate data seems to trail by 10-14 days (as I've outlined in prior posts) so I've somewhat circled reports next week as to when we may really see more of a trend, but Dallas also started releasing stats on "presumed positive" hospitalizations (which in theory would detect a trend before confirmed data) and that also remains flat.   Not sure why Dallas isn't seeing a spike if other places are.  I can't imagine the population here is distancing more than others.  

Not really seeing this most recent spike in Travis County, either.  @ChickenSandwich hasn't posted the running totals in a few days, but current hospitalizations on TravCo dashboard is at 91, which is actually down slightly from a week ago.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by utee94

[Reynolds Woodcock 4739]

Thought this was a good graphic from the NYT showing overall increase in deaths in certain locations compared to other historical events.
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?referringSource=articleShare

 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

30 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Heard that. You should check out Great Wolf Lodge. I'd imagine that place makes Schlitterbahn look like a sanitary surgery center.

Yeah, that’s true.  We actually went there when the kids were little for that Christmas story thing.  When we got there the front desk told us they had closed the water area  “for unexpected maintenance.” That’s all they would say.  I had to go down to the actual water are door and talk to the security guy to find out more. Some sick kid had gone in there and vomited and had explosive diarrhea.  They said it would be totally cleaned and open by the evening or the next day.  No thanks. 

One of the area cub scout packs went there the next summer and all of them came back with a rash all over that looked like smallpox. 

I’m surprised they don’t make you sign a 20-page waiver like Pharmaco did. 

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Nope, those people are just admitting themselves to hospitals for a sudden, and random, desire to have elective surgeries.  

A man can dream...

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

A man can dream...

Man!  Ain't you rich enough yet?!?  

Also, and this is going to sound awkward, I need your contact info to send you my latest pitch deck.  

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Man!  Ain't you rich enough yet?!?  

Also, and this is going to sound awkward, I need your contact info to send you my latest pitch deck.  

Ha, I sold a majority share last year.  The whole ‘better to be lucky than good’ thing applies.  
 

I mean that for the morale of our people.  Everyone is beat up bad enough.  Electives and our normal caseload will be a Godsend.  

[Guest Lobo]

Well if you're not gonna invest my in latest deal, can you at least take a look at this thing in my colon?  

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I've seen the headlines about Texas hospitalizations spiking.  Including Houston, etc.   But it's completely non-existent in Dallas.   Per data released yesterday still entirely flat.  Now a big caveat that relatively accurate data seems to trail by 10-14 days (as I've outlined in prior posts) so I've somewhat circled reports next week as to when we may really see more of a trend, but Dallas also started releasing stats on "presumed positive" hospitalizations (which in theory would detect a trend before confirmed data) and that also remains flat.   Not sure why Dallas isn't seeing a spike if other places are.  I can't imagine the population here is distancing more than others.  

Memorial weekend beachcombers more likely to be from Houston metro?

thats outside and in the wind and sun, but those beaches were crowded. 

[Anastasis 23469]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I've seen the headlines about Texas hospitalizations spiking.  Including Houston, etc.   But it's completely non-existent in Dallas.   Per data released yesterday still entirely flat.  Now a big caveat that relatively accurate data seems to trail by 10-14 days (as I've outlined in prior posts) so I've somewhat circled reports next week as to when we may really see more of a trend, but Dallas also started releasing stats on "presumed positive" hospitalizations (which in theory would detect a trend before confirmed data) and that also remains flat.   Not sure why Dallas isn't seeing a spike if other places are.  I can't imagine the population here is distancing more than others.  

Houston appears to be driving the hospitalizations numbers for the entire state at the moment. 

[gmr548 16576]

Heat, wind, and humidity all get rid of it really quickly.

Houston appears to be driving the hospitalizations numbers for the entire state at the moment. 

Talk about things that don't line up.

[Scary Stranger 1714]

27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well if you're not gonna invest my in latest deal, can you at least take a look at this thing in my colon?  

 

Narrator: "It was a gerbil all along'

[Pig Bellmont 8712]

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Houston appears to be driving the hospitalizations numbers for the entire state at the moment. 

Virus spread seems pretty regional. While statewide numbers are useful for perspective/scope, an open ICU bed in Amarillo doesn’t help Houston if it becomes a hot spot

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Let me be clearer.  No chance in hell I’d go either place, COVID or not.  But what I meant was this- if I set foot in a water park (and I worked at WaterWorld way back), I am already assuming a crazy number of disease risks aside from COVID.  I am not effectively sharing bathwater with 20,000 strangers. 

I agree on some water parks, they’re fucking disgusting.  When my kids were little they insisted on the wave pool at fiesta Texas.  Within 10 minutes, I saw 2 kids puke in the water, and a used maxi pad floating around.  Not to mention all the unseen piss and shit.  Fuck that, if you don’t get covid you’re gonna get typhoid or dysentery.  

[BradInATX 9208]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Talk about things that don't line up.

 

Yeah. I'm of the mind that most of that Houston spread is more organic. I don't think we're seeing noise from the outdoor protests (yet). At least not in hospitalizations. Possibly in positive tests, though. We've been batting some data around in the CR thread in a pretty apolitical fashion. I think the next week is the one to watch for a "protest spike". I expect it's coming. Though I expect it to result in little to no change in hospitalizations just because the protests weren't exactly full of fat diabetic old folks.

 

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Let me be clearer.  No chance in hell I’d go either place, COVID or not.  But what I meant was this- if I set foot in a water park (and I worked at WaterWorld way back), I am already assuming a crazy number of disease risks aside from COVID.  I am not effectively sharing bathwater with 20,000 strangers. 

so what is the target PPM for Chlorine at a water park, say for the wave pool?

[Don Johnson 4753]

I'm absolutely not questions the purpose of the protests, but now that most of them are over, how do we not see a massive spike in cases after them?  I know many of the attendees were younger and wore masks, but much like a concert of sporting event, it seems like the perfect setting for mass transmission.  Close quarters, a lot of talking, yelling, cheering, breathing in and out.   Some of these crowds reached 100,000 and were held in every single decent sized city in the country.  We've seen events like Mardi Gras or Italian soccer matches be responsible for huge outbreaks that held their regions hostage for weeks.  Are the masks enough to stop it because these were massive crowds.

It makes a few thousand at the beach, water park or baseball fields discussed above seem like nothing.

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

4 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

I'm absolutely not questions the purpose of the protests, but now that most of them are over, how do we not see a massive spike in cases after them?  I know many of the attendees were younger and wore masks, but much like a concert of sporting event, it seems like the perfect setting for mass transmission.  Close quarters, a lot of talking, yelling, cheering, breathing in and out.   Some of these crowds reached 100,000 and were held in every single decent sized city in the country.  We've seen events like Mardi Gras or Italian soccer matches be responsible for huge outbreaks that held their regions hostage for weeks.  Are the masks enough to stop it because these were massive crowds.

It makes a few thousand at the beach, water park or baseball fields discussed above seem like nothing.

Lots of younger folks in better shape at the riots.  Some spike will hit but not a massive one. Also, I maintain the virus is weaker in the summer.  

Edited June 10, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Anastasis 23469]

13 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

I'm absolutely not questions the purpose of the protests, but now that most of them are over, how do we not see a massive spike in cases after them?

I think that you are already seeing the early signal in the Travis county case counts. We've been discussing in the re-opening thread how to maybe tease out protest vs. reopening spikes.  I think what we are currently seeing in Travis is the tail end of a mild memorial day spike, a baseline up trend related to reopening, and the front end of a TBD magnitude protest related spike.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Anastasis

[Michael Knight 12977]

Who knew so many people drowned

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2634167/?fbclid=IwAR2wyltU7NT1ihqGVrvbSxK39WmB8d8lyx6HdhxQ4ZqQnfl4YabTP7a3wnI

 

 

[dcar00 14181]

30 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

so what is the target PPM for Chlorine at a water park, say for the wave pool?

should be at least 5ppm

[Hate 20108]

Malaria is pissed right now.

[Captainant 27653]

17 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Who knew so many people drowned

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2634167/?fbclid=IwAR2wyltU7NT1ihqGVrvbSxK39WmB8d8lyx6HdhxQ4ZqQnfl4YabTP7a3wnI

 

 

Holy shit I didn't know so many people died from Parkinson's

[XYZ 2154]

28 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lots of younger folks in better shape at the riots.  Some spike will hit but not a massive one. Also, I maintain the virus is weaker in the summer.  

hope you are right on both counts.

[Newdoc 3439]

28 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lots of younger folks in better shape at the riots.

But do they live with older folks not in good shape? The secondary spread is what I worry about and that could be 2-3 weeks before we see those cases.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20395]

I'll take predictable results for 1000, Alex.   Elon Musk opened the Tesla factory early, defying state orders.  The virus immediately started surging through the factory. 

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/6/9/21285625/coronavirus-tesla-elon-musk-fremont-factory


What is the definition of "insanity?"  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Holy shit I didn't know so many people died from Parkinson's

Whole lotta shakin’ goin on.  

[bolverk 29660]

14 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

But do they live with older folks not in good shape? The secondary spread is what I worry about and that could be 2-3 weeks before we see those cases.

Excellent point.

[Anastasis 23469]

7 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Whole lotta shakin’ goin on.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

But do they live with older folks not in good shape? The secondary spread is what I worry about and that could be 2-3 weeks before we see those cases.

Who knows. We’re at all 16 days since Floyd’s death and MNs numbers: daily cases, active cases, hospitalizations, ICU, deaths and positive % rate are all dropping. The only thing that has spiked were tests the last 5-6 days or so. These have been our best covid days in probably 2 months in terms of everything that’s supposed to be going up or down is, all at once

[utee94 15811]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Who knows. We’re at all 16 days since Floyd’s death and MNs numbers: daily cases, active cases, hospitalizations, ICU, deaths and positive % rate are all dropping. The only thing that has spiked were tests the last 5-6 days or so. These have been our best covid days in probably 2 months in terms of everything that’s supposed to be going up or down is, all at once

So you're suggesting more protests and riots then, as a means to decrease COVID effects?   

 

 

[Sbbruin 21842]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Who knows. We’re at all 16 days since Floyd’s death and MNs numbers: daily cases, active cases, hospitalizations, ICU, deaths and positive % rate are all dropping. The only thing that has spiked were tests the last 5-6 days or so. These have been our best covid days in probably 2 months in terms of everything that’s supposed to be going up or down is, all at once

Numbers continue to go up here in LA County

[Trey3216 15346]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

A man can dream...

If you will it, Dude, it is no dream 

[Trey3216 15346]

1 hour ago, Don Johnson said:

I'm absolutely not questions the purpose of the protests, but now that most of them are over, how do we not see a massive spike in cases after them?  I know many of the attendees were younger and wore masks, but much like a concert of sporting event, it seems like the perfect setting for mass transmission.  Close quarters, a lot of talking, yelling, cheering, breathing in and out.   Some of these crowds reached 100,000 and were held in every single decent sized city in the country.  We've seen events like Mardi Gras or Italian soccer matches be responsible for huge outbreaks that held their regions hostage for weeks.  Are the masks enough to stop it because these were massive crowds.

It makes a few thousand at the beach, water park or baseball fields discussed above seem like nothing.

But muh rights!

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So you're suggesting more protests and riots then, as a means to decrease COVID effects?   
 

 

Nice gotcha question you asshole

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

35 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

But do they live with older folks not in good shape? The secondary spread is what I worry about and that could be 2-3 weeks before we see those cases.

Yes - definitely a possibility but no matter what WHO says, asymptomatic carriers do not spread as much.  I was seeing 40 patients a day while I had it at the end of Feb and they all tested negative midMarch.

I said upthread I see a spike coming but not enough to overwhelm the vast majority of hospital systems.  And I admit that may be wishful thinking.  

[Homercles 10205]

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

  Fuck that, if you don’t get covid you’re gonna get typhoid or dysentery.  

[landman 559]

38 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I'll take predictable results for 1000, Alex.   Elon Musk opened the Tesla factory early, defying state orders.  The virus immediately started surging through the factory. 

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/6/9/21285625/coronavirus-tesla-elon-musk-fremont-factory


What is the definition of "insanity?"  

Not sure surging is the right word.  Not with a few cases.

[stork642 4498]

4 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Seems like a problem 

Can’t see it.  Does it say the increase is Covid patients?   My cousin, who had been waiting for a surgery since February, was finally able to have her surgery last week and is still in the hospital.  I’m guessing there are a ton of people in that same situation.  But it’s a good “look at me” headline.  Riots must be loosing some steam.  

Edited June 10, 2020 by stork642

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

5 minutes ago, landman said:

Not sure surging is the right word.  Not with a few cases.

It's Vox, man. You think they sell ads by being honest?

[landman 559]

1 hour ago, Michael Knight said:

Who knew so many people drowned

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2634167/?fbclid=IwAR2wyltU7NT1ihqGVrvbSxK39WmB8d8lyx6HdhxQ4ZqQnfl4YabTP7a3wnI

 

 

Glad to see cancer and heart disease have been eradicated from the world.  Where do deaths from medical mistakes fit in?  Estimates of over 200k in the US die each year from them.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

I just was on the phone with 5 people on a conference call an hour ago. All 5 have advanced degrees from above-average schools, 4 are lawyers with national firms.  I mentioned that there has been some uptick in Houston in the last week or so, and that there are at least a dozen states with some level of increase.  
 

Consensus from them was total shock.  They all thought we still had cases, but that this was just the “tail end” of the pandemic with a few slower-progressing hot spots that would clear out a few weeks later.  “That’s why we’re all going back to work.” 
 

Then 3 of them blamed the protests on the theory that sick people were out protesting.  When I said that the virus may take 5-14 days before symptoms, so the uptick might not be due to protests yet, 2 of them noted that they had never heard that you can spread without symptoms.  To top off, one of those said that she thought there was already a cure, “not that stuff Trump took, the other one.”

I am moving to a cave in Patagonia. 

[Js1 85310]

4 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I just was on the phone with 5 people on a conference call an hour ago. All 5 have advanced degrees from above-average schools, 4 are lawyers with national firms.  I mentioned that there has been some uptick in Houston in the last week or so, and that there are at least a dozen states with some level of increase.  
 

Consensus from them was total shock.  They all thought we still had cases, but that this was just the “tail end” of the pandemic with a few slower-progressing hot spots that would clear out a few weeks later.  “That’s why we’re all going back to work.” 
 

Then 3 of them blamed the protests on the theory that sick people were out protesting.  When I said that the virus may take 5-14 days before symptoms, so the uptick might not be due to protests yet, 2 of them noted that they had never heard that you can spread without symptoms.  To top off, one of those said that she thought there was already a cure, “not that stuff Trump took, the other one.”

I am moving to a cave in Patagonia. 

People with advanced degrees are morons too.  They’re really good in their chosen field but oblivious to other things (or worse, think being an expert in one thing qualifies them to pontificate about things outside their field as if they are experts).   

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

People with advanced degrees are morons too.  They’re really good in their chosen field but oblivious to other things (or worse, think being an expert in one thing qualifies them to pontificate about things outside their field as if they are experts).   

But I expected them to know shit that’s been on every media outlet for months.  

[Hate 20108]

People with advanced degrees are morons too.  They’re really good in their chosen field but oblivious to other things (or worse, think being an expert in one thing qualifies them to pontificate about things outside their field as if they are experts).   

Lol...that seems to be the SOP with lawyers as we have seen on this site for several years.

[bolverk 29660]

13 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Can’t see it.  Does it say the increase is Covid patients?   My cousin, who had been waiting for a surgery since February, was finally able to have her surgery last week and is still in the hospital.  I’m guessing there are a ton of people in that same situation.  But it’s a good “look at me” headline.  Riots must be loosing some steam.  

*losing

You can read all about the rising Covid hospitalizations in Texas for free here if you're genuinely interested in being informed on the situation and not "just asking questions."

Number of Texans hospitalized with coronavirus hits all-time high as experts say cases are likely to continue increasing

[gmr548 16576]

Can’t see it.  Does it say the increase is Covid patients?   My cousin, who had been waiting for a surgery since February, was finally able to have her surgery last week and is still in the hospital.  I’m guessing there are a ton of people in that same situation.  But it’s a good “look at me” headline.  Riots must be loosing some steam.  

I'm glad your cousin got the care she needs, I think we all know people in tgat boat. That said, Texas covid hospitalizations are up 36 percent since Memorial Day, per DHHS, which is what I assume the headline is referring to.

 

Edit: I'd add that the seven day rolling average is up about 14 percent since Memorial Day, has been increasing for two weeks, and is at its highest recorded point. So while that 36 percent includes noise, as would a comparison between any two points in time, the overall trend remains clear

 

Your post made it equally clear you wanted to dismiss it out of hand with no evidence. I don't expect to change your mind but you can't be willfully ignorant of the facts. Maybe/hopefully we'll see this subside. I don't think so in the short term given the protests, but maybe in a couple weeks.

 

[Trey3216 15346]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

People with advanced degrees are morons too.  They’re really good in their chosen field but oblivious to other things (or worse, think being an expert in one thing qualifies them to pontificate about things outside their field as if they are experts).   

“That’s why they send me, I am expert.”

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

should be at least 5ppm

yeah, i know what a normal pool should be, but was wondering if the 'unpublished' target at waterparks was much higher.  Their combined chlorine is always sky high cause you can smell it from a mile a away.