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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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Or deaths trail being sick, which I think is typically the case. You get sick, then you die. I'd wait two weeks.

So the early part of April we were seeing roughly the same amount of cases we’ve seen the last several weeks...but deaths are noticeably down compared to those case:death ratios back in early->mid April.
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dcar00

dcar00 14330

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Go back to Monday.  Look close to home - Hays county update

  • Added 211 new cases
  • So between 6/14 and 6/15, 265 new cases were added.
  • 193 of these are between 20 and 29 years old.
  • Only 1 additional case over 59 years old.
  • 185 are from San Marcos
  • It took only 5 days to double from 469 to 938
  • Hospitalizations only added 1, and apparently 2 left so there are only 14 currently hospitalized from Hays County.

good info.  is this available for Travis or State wide?

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dcar00

dcar00 14330

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4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


So the early part of April we were seeing roughly the same amount of cases we’ve seen the last several weeks...but deaths are noticeably down compared to those case:death ratios back in early->mid April.

Its likely that it has burned through a lot of the most vulnerable.  the key is keeping it out of the long term care places where old folks are stacked on top of each other.  1point3 shows the VA getting hit hard from a CCFR standpoint.  higher than everyone except Michigan and Conn.

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Knighthawk

Knighthawk 284

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3 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Capture.jpg

Johnny can you find daily / weekly / monthly deaths from all causes in the USA?   Probably the only stat that will provide some insight into the overall trend relative the previous few years.  I’ve looked but it’s all Covid all the time   

/Vince Vaughn “That's what old people do. They die.”

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scottsins

scottsins 1969

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Johnny can you find daily / weekly / monthly deaths from all causes in the USA?   Probably the only stat that will provide some insight into the overall trend relative the previous few years.  I’ve looked but it’s all Covid all the time   
/Vince Vaughn “That's what old people do. They die.”

Not sure if it’s what you are after, but from April 10 - June 10, overall U.S. deaths totaled 109k more than the same period of last year.
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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2 minutes ago, scottsins said:


Not sure if it’s what you are after, but from April 10 - June 10, overall U.S. deaths totaled 109k more than the same period of last year.

How much more was that than expected?

Our population is aging and grows.   I’d assume year of year deaths will increase.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23481

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33 minutes ago, Knighthawk said:

Agree and I also read that total deaths through March were down relative to prior years.  By the end of the year i suspect the total deaths will be in line with prior years (plus year over year growth).   

I'll wager you any amount of money you wish straight up that there will be excess non-MVA related deaths year over year, after any necessary adjustments for population demographics. 

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1945

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On 6/17/2020 at 6:51 PM, Paper_jam said:

Kind of a tangent, but does anyone have a link or tip where to get decent quality masks? On Amazon there are tons of listings for masks, but the reviews generally are very poor (most common complaint being that the elastic breaks and/or the masks are much too small). Most of the "good" reviews are obvious plants (poor English, odd phrasing, etc.)

I bought masks from two online locations:

https://rendallco.com

https://us.takecaresupply.com

Both were too big for my kids but fit me great.  Lead time was long, like 3-4 weeks between order and arrival.

In Austin, I know Mozarts Coffee Roasters and Sue Patrick are selling them online.  We bought some at the physical Mozarts location today that fit my kids better, but did not have a pouch for a filter.

I bought some filter material from https://filti.com and am cutting pieces of material to stick in the pouch.

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1945

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9 hours ago, BradInATX said:

But we're seeing a spike in new cases, which I'd attribute to the protests. I don't expect we'll see as many hospitalizations (because demographics). But that doesn't  mean the protests won't create more spread.

I have been looking at other areas that had protests to see if they are seeing a spike in cases like we are in Texas.

So far, it looks like some are and some are not.  Texas, going up.  DC, going down.  Minnesota down.  New York down, kinda stable.

It's difficult, IMHO, to attribute a rise to the protests right now, unless Texas protesters were just less cautious than other states.  Maybe the protest spike isn't yet reflected in the data.

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I'll wager you any amount of money you wish straight up that there will be excess non-MVA related deaths year over year, after any necessary adjustments for population demographics. 

What’s “non-MVA”?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Yes. Motor vehicle accidents. I assume MVA related deaths are down as result of work at home and shelter in place orders. So that needs to be accounted for. 

MVA's have dropped incredible amounts in California with the distancing recommendations, guidelines, and mandates. That's great news for a whole host of reasons (it gives data analysts huge data in many areas of the economy). If we can do work without an office, the world will change for many people - hopefully in a good way. And that creates an opportunity for  monetization.  

In other words - distancing has created positive and some negative externalities. Overall, deaths other than MVA's should be increased. But then we may find other benefits from working at home.

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Captainant

Captainant 27723

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8 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

If we can do work without an office, the world will change for many people - hopefully in a good way. And that creates an opportunity for  monetization.  

This is no joke, if we shift to remote working being viable and normal, it will be a huge boon to small town America and affordability in the US

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1295

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I'm in Austin for work and the hotel I am at has a shitload of state troopers from surrounding areas staying here and none of these fucks are wearing masks, no social distancing. The lobby is packed with guests and officers in uniform and no fucks given, hell the hotel employees are not masked. I'm  getting the fuck outta here in the morning. Shit is ridiculous.

Edited by SA-KC_Horn
183 & Duval area
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is no joke, if we shift to remote working being viable and normal, it will be a huge boon to small town America and affordability in the US

I spoke with another company this week about plans to remain in "at home" status until 2021. Business is flowing well. They have no regrets. This period will teach us a lot about the future of work. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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2 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

I'm in Austin for work and the hotel I am at has a shitload of state troopers from surrounding areas staying here and none of these fucks are wearing masks, no social distancing. The lobby is packed with guests and officers in uniform and no fucks given, hell the hotel employees are not masked. I'm  getting the fuck outta here in the morning. Shit is ridiculous.

Godspeed. Wash your hands. Try to distance. If you have an N95, wear it in the lobby. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, sunset87 said:

Daily new cases have gone up significantly in the last two to three weeks, where I live, but hospitalizations have not increased much. Certainly not relative to new cases.  Most of the new cases are younger people which is the most obvious explanation for the relatively low hospitalizations numbers. But, is it possible that the severity of the virus is lessening?

I’ve said this 30x.  We see whole nursing homes ending up positive now with hardly anyone getting very sick.  It’s spreading as easily but not as potent.  That is likely to change in the fall but not a guarantee.  We are better at treating too but I don’t have access to treat with the same meds in NH’s and patients are still usually fine.  This is not what we were dealing with in March.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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8 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

I have been looking at other areas that had protests to see if they are seeing a spike in cases like we are in Texas.

So far, it looks like some are and some are not.  Texas, going up.  DC, going down.  Minnesota down.  New York down, kinda stable.

It's difficult, IMHO, to attribute a rise to the protests right now, unless Texas protesters were just less cautious than other states.  Maybe the protest spike isn't yet reflected in the data.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing that. I've mostly been focused on the Austin area. Just goes to show how difficult it is to really draw any inferences from the data. We're all just throwing darts with our eyes closed.

I'm at the point where I don't think it's really super important to stress about where it came from. Sure, there are a few posters left who keep repeating the same 2-3 political talking points on this thread but they're being blown off by the people having serious conversation.

You could be right about the protests. It is interesting the cases are going up but hospitalizations have sort of flattened. That would lead us to believe that it's younger, healthier people, which is sort of why my mind went to the protests. But it could just be young people going to bars. San Marcos seems to be the place that's really exploding right now and I think we can all agree that probably wasn't protests but more likely just college kids partying.

It's going to be really interesting to see what happens with the new Austin mask regulation over the coming weeks.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8819

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On 6/11/2020 at 10:26 PM, 3adays said:

I read an article this morning in the New York Times advising people to set up glory holes during COVID-19. Reminded me of when my Great Grandmother use to say “she’d lived too long and seen too much” 

I'm beginning to feel the same way.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8819

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On 6/12/2020 at 6:08 AM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Just leaving this here without comment:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/houston-may-reopen-virus-hospital-at-stadium-as-cases-expand?sref=knoriXqz

 

I'm days behind on this thread but wanted to give some info pertinent to the Houston situation.

In the last 12 days we have had 19 employees test positive for Covid19.  Two jobsites completely shut down. That's 19 out of roughly 100 employees.  So I would say yes, Houston we have a problem.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8819

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:56 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Agree, but for every protestor in a mask there is a group heading off to play billiards. Hell, I had to hand out masks at our local protest. It was about 70% with. What sucked was a lot of the organizers were the ones without masks. 

This is very personal to me. My friend is face to face everyday with the public. It is her job. I got her and her team face shields. But the amount of at risk people who refuse to wear a mask is baffling. How do we deal with stupidity? Community transmission is upon us. Time to suck it up and be smart. Decisions we have made. 

1- My daughter is not going to her first semester at college. (No Pics you Epstein wannabes) 

2- We have halted going out. Our concern is if my friend is COVID positive, well the food bank has to close. Fuck that. 

3- All beer is sanitized before it goes into the fridge.  

4- Mouthwash is required prior to any oral sex. (UK standards). 

Yep, doing my part. 

Point #4-. Wouldn't it be easier if you just stopped sucking dick until the crisis is over? lulz.. I keed I keed

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Hate

Hate 20130

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Posted
I'm days behind on this thread but wanted to give some info pertinent to the Houston situation.
In the last 12 days we have had 19 employees test positive for Covid19.  Two jobsites completely shut down. That's 19 out of roughly 100 employees.  So I would say yes, Houston we have a problem.

Are any of them in the hospital? Do you know how many are asymptomatic?
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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8819

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4 minutes ago, Hate said:


Are any of them in the hospital? Do you know how many are asymptomatic?

No idea. The information was passed on to me in Waco and didn't get any details.  If I had to take a guess I'd say most were probably symptomatic as I had heard through the grapevine that 3 felt sick and that's what triggered the testing.

Edited by SHOOTER12
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Hate

Hate 20130

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Posted

I think it’s depending on the time frame you use. If you compare this week to a week in Mid May, I believe it is up substantially (I just picked mid May off the top of my head assuming that was when it was lowest...that could be wrong). If you compare this week to the early days of the virus before world from home and closure of restaurants and bars, then we are down. I think.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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7 hours ago, Captainant said:

This is no joke, if we shift to remote working being viable and normal, it will be a huge boon to small town America and affordability in the US

That plus driverless cars should make traffic and almost all car deaths a thing of the past.

I am going to Colorado for three weeks which we usually do in the summer.  Taking my laptop, docking station and screen.  With wifi and zoom meetings, I can do basically anything I can do sitting in my office.

Not good for commercial real estate though.  Maybe some office buildings can be converted into apartments?

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gmr548

gmr548 16593

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Thanks but I will just stick with total deaths.   I do not trust those doing the counting and the sorting. 

"No thanks I'll just ignore the obvious hole in my preferred narrative. Because a conspiracy among the countless local jurisdictions across the country is a lot more believable than way fewer car accidents due to people staying home."

 

Problem with this country in a nutshell.

 

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MoJames

MoJames 8244

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The most interesting part of the working from home part is the amount of patient's that aren't interested in it. Certainly I've had a good amount of patient's that I've seen through Telemed, but now that I'm coming back to clinic twice a week, I'm amazed at the amount of people that are itching to get seen in person. Working in Neurology the vast majority of my patient's are well within the population at risk, but apparently figuring out how to zoom or just the idea of doing a virtual visit isn't something they are interested in. As well, my clinic is connected to the hospital, so to a certain extent the patient's are willing to go to a hospital to be seen over working with technology.

Keep in mind I'm in a community that has done exceptionally well in Colorado on numbers, so there is that.

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NoName

NoName 16369

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11 minutes ago, MoJames said:

The most interesting part of the working from home part is the amount of patient's that aren't interested in it. Certainly I've had a good amount of patient's that I've seen through Telemed, but now that I'm coming back to clinic twice a week, I'm amazed at the amount of people that are itching to get seen in person. Working in Neurology the vast majority of my patient's are well within the population at risk, but apparently figuring out how to zoom or just the idea of doing a virtual visit isn't something they are interested in. As well, my clinic is connected to the hospital, so to a certain extent the patient's are willing to go to a hospital to be seen over working with technology.

Keep in mind I'm in a community that has done exceptionally well in Colorado on numbers, so there is that.

i am guessing there is an age component to those who want to see you in person? is there an acuity component?

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