Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89770]

31 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm apparently too incompetent to paste a tweet but...

NEW: San Antonio’s coronavirus outbreak is spiraling. Officials have reported 412 new cases today. There have been 1,569 cases reported since Monday. 

Four more people have died, bringing the local death toll to 96. 

The positivity rate for the past week is *19 percent. 

It's a good thing it's not warm in San Antonio yet, and we don't have any major holidays within the next two weeks.

[gmr548 16590]

Moving vehicle accidents don’t drive the overall number of deaths in the us on a yearly basis.   The run about 35,000 deaths per year out of a total of 2.8M.   It’s about 1.2% of total deaths.  
try again.   
 

Sure, which makes the conspiracy comment even more silly. You do you though.

[gmr548 16590]

ABC News just reporter that New York has seen a massive increase in heart attacks over the last few months. 4,000 heart attacks and 90% fatal! They attribute the surge to undiagnosed coronavirus. Those numbers are not included in the NY death numbers. Scary stuff.

4k heart attacks is known as Tuesday in San Antonio.

[Neonmoon 38130]

4000 Heart Attacks would be a great band name 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 hours ago, XYZ said:

What do y'all think of this chart? I saw it initially on the Karl Denninger blog and I decided to make my own with more years, and I adjusted the deaths each year according to population growth. It shows the number of weekly deaths. I want you to focus on the red curve, where it dips below the others. Why do you think that is happening? In case you are thinking "fewer vehicle accident deaths", the average weekly number of deaths in vehicle accidents is around 730. As of the last reported week on this chart, which ended on 6/6, we were at around 15,000 fewer weekly deaths than previous years, so even if all 730 vehicle accidents went away (they didn't), that would only account for 5% of the drop in deaths.

We’re all gonna...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

live? 

Edited June 20, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[B00M 6435]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I just came from a baseball tournament in scenic Lovell, WY where none of the players, coaches, spectators, umpires, or food truck people had on a mask. 
 

Lucky mother fucker. Got DAMMIT I miss sports.

[Iceman 2724]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

 

The positivity rate for the past week is *19 percent. 

lots of ways that could go.  Limited testing, so it gets up to 1 positive out of 5 ?   

I hate that so much of the stats is missing corroborating factors.  Shit ton of missing info.

[achooloco 1072]

5 hours ago, Viper said:

are all these comparisons to New York meaning that New York is doing it correctly now, or that it already went through and killed everyone there so there's no one left to get infected?

That NY is doing it correctly now And everyone else could be shutting down but instead chooses for grandma to die, for better or for worse. NYC was caught with our pants down for a variety of reasons, but there are still plenty of people for the virus to kill here, isn’t ny state at like 20% for herd immunity? 

[achooloco 1072]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

more of column B

No, we are no where near herd immunity here. What’s your basis for column b?

[NorthLoop 14222]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's a good thing it's not warm in San Antonio yet, and we don't have any major holidays within the next two weeks.

Is 4th of July a thing in San Antonio?

[StruggleBus 3922]

13 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Is 4th of July a thing in San Antonio?

Any excuse to drink shitty beer in your front yard is a thing in San Antonio.

And it’s fantastic.

[Iceman 2724]

When is Antifah coming for the racist Alamo?

 

I'm looking forward to that matchup, sans any sports rivalries.

[Trey3216 15350]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

4000 Heart Attacks would be a great band name 

It’s just your COVID-19th breakdown 

[Trey3216 15350]

38 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Any excuse to drink shitty beer in your front yard is a thing in San Antonio.

And it’s fantastic.

I usually drink shitty beer in my neighbors’/friends’ front yard.  I drink good beer in my front yard 

[ChickenSandwich 9844]

2 hours ago, achooloco said:

That NY is doing it correctly now And everyone else could be shutting down but instead chooses for grandma to die, for better or for worse. NYC was caught with our pants down for a variety of reasons, but there are still plenty of people for the virus to kill here, isn’t ny state at like 20% for herd immunity? 

Well I don’t think we are quite to the point of sending untested or positive patients to nursing homes so I wouldn’t say that. This surge is clearly linked to the protests,

 (by age), but the good news is they haven’t overwhelmed the hospital system at all

[DDD Dad 14346]

This surge is clearly linked to the protests

Keep fucking that chicken




Sandwich

[atomheartbevo 89770]

HEB is going masks-only statewide it seems, with a lot of other stores following suit.  There's going to be a whole lot of bitching from the peasants, but the peasants don't understand that if store workers get it at the store, it's costing the stores a lot of money, both with the workers being out, and the extra sanitizing, and the hit in sales if word gets out that some location has had covid problems.

Also, there's a lot of businesses pissed at the state, because the state, rather than allowing orders for individuals to mask up, is pushing it to the businesses, and the businesses don't want to be in the healthcode enforcement business.  I've heard some interesting/profane stuff from the neighbor who works with the COA (not for, with).  Some really pissed off businesses and organizations representing those businesses.  They want the mask orders, but they don't want to be the ones to enforce it, they want the onus put on individuals, because they don't want pissed-off Cletii tanging with employees.

I've seen a few of the experts saying Texas still has time to get its shit back in order in the next week or two, but damn July 4th is looming.

[ChickenSandwich 9844]

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

Keep fucking that chicken




Sandwich

Keep your head in the sand. Woke

[achooloco 1072]

7 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Well I don’t think we are quite to the point of sending untested or positive patients to nursing homes so I wouldn’t say that. This surge is clearly linked to the protests,

 (by age), but the good news is they haven’t overwhelmed the hospital system at all

Is there a graph/link to that data that it’s youngs?  Or young’s protesting? Thought it was too early to see that correlation to the protests. But if you have it, would love for you to be right since hospitals are looking good for now. 

And thank you for the daily-ish Austin charts, they have been very informative. 

[utee94 15837]

36 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Is there a graph/link to that data that it’s youngs?  Or young’s protesting? Thought it was too early to see that correlation to the protests. But if you have it, would love for you to be right since hospitals are looking good for now. 

And thank you for the daily-ish Austin charts, they have been very informative. 

This link for Austin shows age demographics for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by age group (and other metrics).

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Unfortunately I don't see any historical data for trend analysis, you'have to have captured it daily to run the trends yourself I think.  However, I can say that  I checked a few weeks ago and at that time the 20-29 age group made up 22% of the cases, and now it's increased to 24%.  And the 40-49 group was previously 21% of the cases, and now it's down to 17%.  The group in-between, 30-39, has held steady at 22%.  That means a higher percentage of the positive test cases are coming from the younger age group now, compared to a couple of weeks ago.  That might, or might not, be related to the protests.  Obviously there's no way to know for sure.

The historical data may be buried in there somewhere if you were interested in tracking it down.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by utee94

[Iceman 2724]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

HEB is going masks-only statewide it seems, with a lot of other stores following suit.  There's going to be a whole lot of bitching from the peasants, but the peasants don't understand that if store workers get it at the store, it's costing the stores a lot of money, both with the workers being out, and the extra sanitizing, and the hit in sales if word gets out that some location has had covid problems.

 

So March, April, and May were mask mandates, right?  Hell, many of the masks for workers didn't start until the beginning of May.

 

That's been my point all along.  People haven't been practicing the mask precautions the whole time and there was not even store level precautions until May; but there is no mass exodus of store employees or suppliers within the stores.    Things have changed now though, i.e.  the first round wasn't disruptive enough.  We need to make this one really count.

 

Why won't you just comply?   Isn't it ironic?

[StruggleBus 3922]

15 minutes ago, Iceman said:

So March, April, and May were mask mandates, right?  Hell, many of the masks for workers didn't start until the beginning of May.

 

That's been my point all along.  People haven't been practicing the mask precautions the whole time and there was not even store level precautions until May; but there is no mass exodus of store employees or suppliers within the stores.    Things have changed now though, i.e.  the first round wasn't disruptive enough.  We need to make this one really count.

 

Why won't you just comply?   Isn't it ironic?

No, it’s not. 

[XYZ 2154]

I’m OK with the State mandating the use of face coverings inside businesses, and holding businesses accountable for enforcing it. Home Depot on Brodie Ln seems to be doing a good job with this. They have employees on entrance and exit and they maintain a certain maximum number of patrons in the store. Half Price Books on South Lamar was doing a good job last time I went. You couldn’t go in without a face mask. Send city/county/state officers to check stores, and if they are too crowded and/or no masks, fine the store and the customer. There are some places where they clearly don’t give a shit. Lowe’s on Brodie is one of them. I went in April, when we were still under mandatory mask use, and I saw an idiot inside shopping without mask. I reported it to an employee and they gave me the “we really don’t give a shit” treatment.

[drt 640]

Public heath regulations and enforcement shouldn’t be on local businesses. How anyone thinks this is out of the scope of government is beyond me.  This is precisely why Pinthouse closed for a while, they didn’t want the responsibility of making and enforcing public policy regulations for the safety of their patrons and employees.

[El Diablo 4232]

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

So March, April, and May were mask mandates, right?  Hell, many of the masks for workers didn't start until the beginning of May.

 

That's been my point all along.  People haven't been practicing the mask precautions the whole time and there was not even store level precautions until May; but there is no mass exodus of store employees or suppliers within the stores.    Things have changed now though, i.e.  the first round wasn't disruptive enough.  We need to make this one really count.

 

Why won't you just comply?   Isn't it ironic?

I recall shortened hours, compete shutdowns, long lines, curbside pickup, panic buying, empty shelves etc... Wtf are you actually saying?

[Iceman 2724]

6 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

I recall shortened hours, compete shutdowns, long lines, curbside pickup, panic buying, empty shelves etc... Wtf are you actually saying?

those were absolutely "demand crushing supply" issues resulting from insane panic as opposed to actual threats to well being.  By late April they had normalized in most places.

What are you asking about masks and massive worker shortages due to infections?  There was panic, for sure.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Iceman

[El Diablo 4232]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

those were absolutely SUPPLY issues.

What are you asking?

You said that the first go-round was not disruptive enough and that a 2nd round of more disruptive measures was needed (paraphrasing). wtf? 

[Iceman 2724]

Just now, El Diablo said:

You said that the first go-round was not disruptive enough and that a 2nd round of more disruptive measures was needed (paraphrasing). wtf? 

We must embrace the fear, gotdammit.

[Knighthawk 284]

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

19 hours ago, Knighthawk said:

Moving vehicle accidents don’t drive the overall number of deaths in the us on a yearly basis.   The run about 35,000 deaths per year out of a total of 2.8M.   It’s about 1.2% of total deaths.  
try again.   
 

Sure, which makes the conspiracy comment even more silly. You do you though.

Don’t believe I’ve used the word ‘conspiracy’.   You must be thinking of someone else.   

[B00M 6435]

8 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Keep fucking that chicken




Sandwich

I mean, by now, new hospitalizations are certainly not from memorial day. Are you arguing that the timeline isn't right to attribute this surge to protests, or that this surge was going to happen regardless?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

45 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m OK with the State mandating the use of face coverings inside businesses, and holding businesses accountable for enforcing it. Home Depot on Brodie Ln seems to be doing a good job with this. They have employees on entrance and exit and they maintain a certain maximum number of patrons in the store. Half Price Books on South Lamar was doing a good job last time I went. You couldn’t go in without a face mask. Send city/county/state officers to check stores, and if they are too crowded and/or no masks, fine the store and the customer. There are some places where they clearly don’t give a shit. Lowe’s on Brodie is one of them. I went in April, when we were still under mandatory mask use, and I saw an idiot inside shopping without mask. I reported it to an employee and they gave me the “we really don’t give a shit” treatment.

That Lowe’s attitude surprises me considering they actually had an employee at the Brodie location  die and had to shut down for a day or two. Oh well.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Judge Roybeanbag

[idigTexas 2289]

9 minutes ago, B00M said:

I mean, by now, new hospitalizations are certainly not from memorial day. Are you arguing that the timeline isn't right to attribute this surge to protests, or that this surge was going to happen regardless?

I think what he is saying is that many of the protesters aren't the only people who have not been practicing social distancing and wearing masks when the situation calls for them.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4791]

7 minutes ago, B00M said:

I mean, by now, new hospitalizations are certainly not from memorial day. Are you arguing that the timeline isn't right to attribute this surge to protests, or that this surge was going to happen regardless?

 

9 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Well I don’t think we are quite to the point of sending untested or positive patients to nursing homes so I wouldn’t say that. This surge is clearly linked to the protests,

 (by age), but the good news is they haven’t overwhelmed the hospital system at all

New York has had massive, sustained protests now for three weeks. We also have wide spread mask usage and strict limits or prohibitions on in door gatherings. Our cases continue to decline.

Texas also had some protests, but has chosen to open indoor businesses and not enforce mask rules. Your cases are spiking.

Gotta be the protests.

[idigTexas 2289]

1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

 

New York has had massive, sustained protests now for three weeks. We also have wide spread mask usage and strict limits or prohibitions on in door gatherings. Our cases continue to decline.

Texas also had some protests, but has chosen to open indoor businesses and not enforce mask rules. Your cases are spiking.

Gotta be the protests.

The protests are likely a contributing factor, but there are significant numbers of other people who have completely returned to a pre-COVID state of mind. 

[Surly Bevo 25098]

Pre-Covid State of Mind is opening for 4000 Heart Attacks

[idigTexas 2289]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Pre-Covid State of Mind is opening for 4000 Heart Attacks

I thought the Heart Attacks had to back out and were replaced by Deep Lung Infection.

[Bevo 13591]

26 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

 

New York has had massive, sustained protests now for three weeks. We also have wide spread mask usage and strict limits or prohibitions on in door gatherings. Our cases continue to decline.

Texas also had some protests, but has chosen to open indoor businesses and not enforce mask rules. Your cases are spiking.

Gotta be the protests.

Wrong, it could also be the fact that a lot higher percentage of the population in New York has already been exposed.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wrong, it could also be the fact that a lot higher percentage of the population in New York has already been exposed.

And they killed off a lot of the most vulnerable nursing home residents already.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

I’ll be surprised if Texas gets to 10 percent of NY’s per capita death rate and shocked it we get to 20 percent.

I heard on tv interview that Florida’s average case age has dropped from 62 to 37.  A lot of testing is being done in institutions and workplaces.  Having people under 40 getting COViD is exactly what we want.   The mortality rate for that group is tiny.  For them, it basically is the flu.   

[Knighthawk 284]

16 hours ago, XYZ said:

What do y'all think of this chart? I saw it initially on the Karl Denninger blog and I decided to make my own with more years, and I adjusted the deaths each year according to population growth. It shows the number of weekly deaths. I want you to focus on the red curve, where it dips below the others. Why do you think that is happening? In case you are thinking "fewer vehicle accident deaths", the average weekly number of deaths in vehicle accidents is around 730. As of the last reported week on this chart, which ended on 6/6, we were at around 15,000 fewer weekly deaths than previous years, so even if all 730 vehicle accidents went away (they didn't), that would only account for 5% of the drop in deaths.

I saw the same chart from denninger.  What is the data source for the all cause weekly deaths?

[gmr548 16590]

16 hours ago, XYZ said:

What do y'all think of this chart? I saw it initially on the Karl Denninger blog and I decided to make my own with more years, and I adjusted the deaths each year according to population growth. It shows the number of weekly deaths. I want you to focus on the red curve, where it dips below the others. Why do you think that is happening? In case you are thinking "fewer vehicle accident deaths", the average weekly number of deaths in vehicle accidents is around 730. As of the last reported week on this chart, which ended on 6/6, we were at around 15,000 fewer weekly deaths than previous years, so even if all 730 vehicle accidents went away (they didn't), that would only account for 5% of the drop in deaths.

Is there a source for that data? Karl That's interesting if true, but Karl Denniger is a wee bit politically slanted so I'd be interested to see the primary source.

If true, my guesses at contributing factors would be a combination of: mortality data taking weeks to report, meaning the current count is incomplete; fewer accidental deaths, as accidental deaths (not just vehicle accidents - overdoses, falls, whatever) are the third leading US cause of death; obviously the spike in NYC area COVID deaths was concentrated among older patients, some, though certainly not anywhere near all, may have passed over the past few months without COVID anyway (you'd have to dive into individual patient circumstances to really get an accurate count); suicides are also in the top 10 causes of death and are the only other item that isn't some sort of disease or medical incident that you wouldn't necessarily expect to see a decrease for - perhaps those are down; fewer assault/homicide deaths (probably not a big enough number to explain a whole lot though).

Those are all guesses, for what it's worth.

 

 

[Surly Bevo 25098]

I thought the Heart Attacks had to back out and were replaced by Deep Lung Infection.

Saw them once. Killer set

[Reynolds Woodcock 4791]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Wrong, it could also be the fact that a lot higher percentage of the population in New York has already been exposed.

 WSJ - Data shows no marked uptick from protests thus far

To be clear, the point isn’t that protests haven’t resulted in any incremental increase in COVID cases. Outdoor transmission is at least possible even with a mask, although more and more evidence suggests it is a very low possibility. But to say that the large spike in Texas “is clearly linked to the protests” is completely asinine, which is par for the course for this thread.

[Bevo 13591]

23 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

 WSJ - Data shows no marked uptick from protests thus far

To be clear, the point isn’t that protests haven’t resulted in any incremental increase in COVID cases. Outdoor transmission is at least possible even with a mask, although more and more evidence suggests it is a very low possibility. But to say that the large spike in Texas “is clearly linked to the protests” is completely asinine, which is par for the course for this thread.

Tons of points here, but I'll keep it simple. Consider COVID like any other airborne virus. Outdoor transmission is possible. Indoor transmission is possible. Fomite transmission is possible. Ignore those possibilities at your own risk. So if people protest without masks, they are at increased risk as are the people who come into contact with them and so on. So basically, I am at increased risk because of people not wearing masks, regardless of whether you or some other dumbass wants to make a political point out of it.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Bevo

[heso 2813]

The biggest difference is that the virus living on surfaces outdoors in sunlight is measured in seconds whereas indoors it’s measured in days. 

[dcar00 14321]

31 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

 WSJ - Data shows no marked uptick from protests thus far

To be clear, the point isn’t that protests haven’t resulted in any incremental increase in COVID cases. Outdoor transmission is at least possible even with a mask, although more and more evidence suggests it is a very low possibility. But to say that the large spike in Texas “is clearly linked to the protests” is completely asinine, which is par for the course for this thread.

but there was clear uptick due to Memorial Day BBQ's right?

[Reynolds Woodcock 4791]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Tons of points here, but I'll keep it simple. Consider COVID like any other airborne virus. Outdoor transmission is possible. Indoor transmission is possible. Fomite transmission is possible. Ignore those possibilities at your own risk. So if people protest without masks, they are at increased risk as are the people who come into contact with them and so on. So basically, I am at increased risk because of people not wearing masks, regardless of whether you or some other dumbass wants to make a political point out of it.

Who is arguing with you on these points? I agree, outdoor transmission is definitely possible. I’m responding to the claim that the spike in Texas is “is clearly linked to the protests”, which is not based in fact.

[dcar00 14321]

2 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Who is arguing with you on these points? I agree, outdoor transmission is definitely possible. I’m responding to the claim that the spike in Texas is “is clearly linked to the protests”, which is not based in fact.

the wsj article is great news.  we need to go ahead with football, baseball, and  outdoor musical festivals asap.

[Bevo 13591]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

but there was clear uptick due to Memorial Day BBQ's right?

Unless I can figure it out so I can punch the man, woman, or other in the face, why should I care who gets me sick? They are all equally self-centered, assholes.

[Surly Bevo 25098]

16 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

but there was clear uptick due to Memorial Day BBQ's right?

Yes but only the ones where they didn't use Butterfingers on the brisket