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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8823

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Yep. 
I bet you guys up north aren't fighting the "mAsKs ArE fOr ShEeP" battle like we are down here too.

There’s definitely some people who don’t wear em as I saw in the grocery store yesterday. Maybe we just don’t get viral videos of funny looking citizens fighting to get into Walmart and Costco like the south does.



Info out of a penn state study says the infection may be 80x greater than originally reported


https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8823

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Probably a little easier to sell masks in a state with 4 times as many per capita deaths than Texas.

We were one of the smart ones to put covid patients back into assisted care, hence 80% of our deaths are LTC.

Counties with meat plant out breaks but not a big population are seeing CFRs well below 1 compared to those with larger populations and more LTC deaths
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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25225

Posted
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Based on all we now know while it is fun to throw around and bitch about Karen getting her haircut and pedicure and Chads dropping by restaurants, bars, beaches, and the general angst about folks not wearing masks when they run in to Lowes etc (which no doubt they should still do to avoid being assholes) I highly doubt that any of those is a very material source of all of these new cases. 

My informed guess is that the main source is all the people who have returned to work in more confined office spaces, warehouses, and other assortments of commercial facilities spending multiple hours around each other in climate control.  I would also note here in Tarrant County (where the hospitalized numbers have increased but still only represent about 5% of total capacity) that there is a highly disproportionate number of Hispanics and African-Americans with Covid....now just who do you think has the kind of jobs that forced them back quicker when things reopened.  It sure wasn't my white ass working in the financial sector.  

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6333

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1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Probably a little easier to sell masks in a state with 4 times as many per capita deaths than Texas.

No, the issue is that you have to "sell" wearing a mask in the first place. Texas just has a larger population of people who don't believe in things like "science" and "common sense".

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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14 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

No, the issue is that you have to "sell" wearing a mask in the first place. Texas just has a larger population of people who don't believe in things like "science" and "common sense".

Sure.  We are all just ignorant dumbasses down here.

With five percent the COVID death rate of our superior and wise Northeastern counterparts who are all scientists.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15331

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This is definitely interesting.  

Infection rate 80 times greater than originally estimated?

Quote

Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was under counted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.

Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.

“Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”

 

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6333

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Sure.  We are all just ignorant dumbasses down here.

With five percent the COVID death rate of our superior and wise Northeastern counterparts who are all scientists.

You're right, I'm sure there is some other explanation as to why their numbers are going down and ours are on the rise. I look forward to hearing about your conspiracy theories well thought out ideas why it's happening.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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3 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

You're right, I'm sure there is some other explanation as to why their numbers are going down and ours are on the rise. I look forward to hearing about your conspiracy theories well thought out ideas why it's happening.

I’ll bet whatever you care to risk Texas doesn’t have 1/4 of New York’s per capita death rate by 12/31/20.  You game?

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Captainant

Captainant 27862

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I’ll bet whatever you care to risk Texas doesn’t have 1/4 of New York’s per capita death rate by 12/31/20.  You game?

Why don't you reply to Trauma Babe about the current status of our hospitals and how they can "just hire more people" and how they're all "tanned and ready to go back to work" before you start pushing a new round of bullshit in your cowardly drive-by posts?

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6333

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I’ll bet whatever you care to risk Texas doesn’t have 1/4 of New York’s per capita death rate by 12/31/20.  You game?

Yeah, I'm not placing bets on people dying, you fucking weirdo. You still haven't addressed anything I posted BTW.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15135

Posted
Posted

A friend put the US situation into perspective. He said there was never a chance Americans would lock-down. We are a nation of the highest risk-takers on the planet and now it's just time to risk one's life instead of one's money, a career, etc. It's built into the breed.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5512

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1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

We weren’t as open as Texas was. Hell June 1 was our first day of out door seating at restaurants.. 2 weeks ago we finally opened up indoor restaurants, bars, gyms etc with capacity restrictions .

 

Texas kinda went full throttle reopen in early May didn’t they?

so in 2-3 more weeks after people start riding the subway again it's ballgame in NY and NJ.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hmbre97 said:

You still haven't addressed anything I posted BTW.

He won't. He's gotten so embarrassed in the last few discussions where he dropped a drive-by post and got torn apart by facts that he's now reduced to running around trying to money-whip people with his parents' cash.

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achooloco

achooloco 1086

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

so in 2-3 more weeks after people start riding the subway again it's ballgame in NY and NJ.

Doubt it but possible. People generally wear masks everywhere here. And a lot of people know someone who died or at the very least had it and have been told they “wouldn’t wish it on their worst enemy”. I’m not saying we’ve handled it better but we definitely have taken it more serious than Texas has. 

Think ny will look more like the euros until the weather turns cold and then it’ll be a shitstorm again. And not much we’ll be able to do about it then other than just taking it. 
 

edit: also we never stopped riding the subway so not sure what you mean

Edited by achooloco
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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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8 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

looking at that chart, we could be italy in 2 weeks 

I think big states with lower death rates like Texas and Cali are going to get hit at some point.  Just won’t be anything like what happened in the northeast because our leaders have made better decisions. Especially regarding LTC facilities.  

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7787

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Posted
1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

Sure.  We are all just ignorant dumbasses down here.

With five percent the COVID death rate of our superior and wise Northeastern counterparts who are all scientists.

Wearing masks in public greatly reduces transmission of the virus.  Masks work.  You should wear them.

Anyone who is not willing to do so is either an ignorant dumbass, as you say, or a selfish asshole that is not willing to do their part to help others (wearing a mask protects others, not you).  

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dcar00

dcar00 14382

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Posted
1 minute ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

that's usually a nursing home hit. Has happened several places.

actually found it. reviewed data.  35 probables.  26 of those with no covid test and 9 with a negative Covid test.  interesting.

https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavirus/huge-jump-in-covid-deaths-after-state-review-of-data/

 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7787

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

"dump of numbers" pretty much sums it up...or I could go with "guessing"

By dump of numbers, what I have seen in CO is that they will do a catch-up dump of all the previous cases that were not previously reported for whatever reason.  So it looks like a big spike on one day but when you dig into it, it's not.

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dcar00

dcar00 14382

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

By dump of numbers, what I have seen in CO is that they will do a catch-up dump of all the previous cases that were not previously reported for whatever reason.  So it looks like a big spike on one day but when you dig into it, it's not.

I get it.  it wasn't a shot at you.  I was just using your term to describe the numbers, 26 with no covid test and 9 with negative out of 69.

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Captainant

Captainant 27862

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13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

actually found it. reviewed data.  35 probables.  26 of those with no covid test and 9 with a negative Covid test.  interesting.

https://delawarestatenews.net/coronavirus/huge-jump-in-covid-deaths-after-state-review-of-data/

More to JRJRJRJR's point though about 75% of those deaths were LTC/NH residents, per your linked story

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Js1

Js1 85636

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40 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Delaware is showing 69 deaths today on 1point3.    they average about 7 or 8 deaths a day for 2 months and then 69?  weird.

This might be the first and only time I'm not going to respond "nice" to that 69. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14382

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42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

More to JRJRJRJR's point though about 75% of those deaths were LTC/NH residents, per your linked story

yes it was both. reviewed numbers and most were nursing homes(as pretty much expected that at least half are going to be NH/LTC) but it wasn't all one nursing home. it was a review over I am assuming a number of months.  interesting that they count 35 probables with 26 having no covid test and 9  having a negative test.

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Captain Ron

Captain Ron 12934

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5 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

We weren’t as open as Texas was. Hell June 1 was our first day of out door seating at restaurants.. 2 weeks ago we finally opened up indoor restaurants, bars, gyms etc with capacity restrictions .

 

Texas kinda went full throttle reopen in early May didn’t they?

Just reading about the Texas reopening from afar, that is what I thought. Not even getting into what could open in each phase:

Phase 1 was announced April 27 and openings started May 1

Phase 2 was announced May 18 with changes going int effect the same day

Phase 3 was announce June 3, effective that day.

It was basically 2.5 weeks between phases, not even allowing for a trend to be witnessed. And it very much felt unplanned, just "Texas is reopening and phase 1 starts in 4 days!"

On top of the rush in which opening happened, everything allowed to open in phases 1 and 2 were indoor activities (restaurants, malls, stores, movie theaters, BARS, Petri dishes!

 

Compare and contrast to Mass:

Plan to reopen announce April 28th

May 11th it was announced to be in 4 phases, with Phase 1 starting a week later (May 18) and implemented slowly.

Phase 2 was split into two steps, Step 1 started June 8, Step 2 started YESTERDAY. Phase 3 is AT A MINIMUM going to be 3 weeks from now, putting it mid July.

The whole plan was made to watch the numbers, see if the changes made started to impact our spread and increase it again.

 

Time will tell if the Mass approach works, but I can say that given what we are seeing from Texas, and if you track the cases against those dates, it really feels like they did rush opening.

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Captainant

Captainant 27862

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2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Abbott published a plan and then almost immediately stopped following it  I do not believe we met any of the benchmarks that were to be the signal that it was ok to move on to the next step.

The states that are proceeding with reopening aren't meeting CDC, WhiteHouse, or their own states guidelines for continuing to ramp up their opening. It's fucking looney toons

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El Diablo

El Diablo 4232

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Posted
3 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think big states with lower death rates like Texas and Cali are going to get hit at some point.  Just won’t be anything like what happened in the northeast because our leaders have made better decisions. Especially regarding LTC facilities.  

Yeah, they were the last ones out of the trench and saw the carnage. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to make that call.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19171

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Just reading about the Texas reopening from afar, that is what I thought. Not even getting into what could open in each phase:
Phase 1 was announced April 27 and openings started May 1
Phase 2 was announced May 18 with changes going int effect the same day
Phase 3 was announce June 3, effective that day.
It was basically 2.5 weeks between phases, not even allowing for a trend to be witnessed. And it very much felt unplanned, just "Texas is reopening and phase 1 starts in 4 days!"
On top of the rush in which opening happened, everything allowed to open in phases 1 and 2 were indoor activities (restaurants, malls, stores, movie theaters, BARS, Petri dishes!
 
Compare and contrast to Mass:
Plan to reopen announce April 28th
May 11th it was announced to be in 4 phases, with Phase 1 starting a week later (May 18) and implemented slowly.
Phase 2 was split into two steps, Step 1 started June 8, Step 2 started YESTERDAY. Phase 3 is AT A MINIMUM going to be 3 weeks from now, putting it mid July.
The whole plan was made to watch the numbers, see if the changes made started to impact our spread and increase it again.
 
Time will tell if the Mass approach works, but I can say that given what we are seeing from Texas, and if you track the cases against those dates, it really feels like they did rush opening.


New York did something similar, but they further broke things into 10 regions. You had to meet 7 criteria to start reopening. There is at a minimum 2 weeks between each have, and you only get to go to the next phase if criteria are still being met. NYC just went into Phase 2 yesterday. That allows in person retail and outdoor bars and restaurants.
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gmr548

gmr548 16617

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Abbott published a plan and then almost immediately stopped following it  I do not believe we met any of the benchmarks that were to be the signal that it was ok to move on to the next step.
There were no published benchmarks. That made the plan obvious from day 1. A value judgement/debate is for CR, but let's not pretend the plan included any alternative or failsafe.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89859

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5 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

A friend put the US situation into perspective. He said there was never a chance Americans would lock-down. We are a nation of the highest risk-takers on the planet and now it's just time to risk one's life instead of one's money, a career, etc. It's built into the breed.

Given our proclivity to regularly spend time not social-distancing with South Austin's mom, it's a wonder we don't all come down with it.

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