Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Royalfan5 2355]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Just read on Twitter that they had a bunch of testing facilities, like 34 of them, claim 100% positive rates today.  That’s pretty much statistically impossible, so I’d take whatever data they’re putting out with a grain of salt.  

Or there getting overwhelmed so they’re only getting the positives out on the report

[jimmyjazz 46124]

51 minutes ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

Look at Texas, AZ, FL death numbers. 

Is there a legit source of historical data on a state by state as well as national basis?  I'm talking charts of (for instance) daily hospitalization or death counts.  Not just today/yesterday/two days ago, but all the way back to March.

It feels like it's unnecessarily difficult to access clear data on daily counts and how they vary over time.

[South Austin 52593]

26 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

TCU is up 5 TDs and still throwing into the end zone and we just got a PBU. “See, see, we’re coming back baby!”
 

wake up, man. We’re getting trounced. 

 

Maybe we’ll beat COVID by three touchdowns.

[Js1 85566]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Maybe we’ll beat COVID by three touchdowns.

We’re getting Route 66’d by COVID.  Time for a head coaching change. 

[DDD Dad 14348]

Are there studies that pinpoint the current surge to bars?  Contact tracing results?  I find reference to, “spread in bar settings” referenced over and over but no referral to source of that info.

I’m pretty sure the only reasons for increased cases are more testing and BLM protests.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Look at Texas, AZ, FL death numbers. They're exponentially increasing. This is fucking simple reading comprehension you lack.

Ok so is your definition of up a day, down a day, up a day, back to average?

 

 

 

 

I mean I guess if we’re going to freak the fuck up about an uptick in 15 more deaths of day, then yea I’ll buy into your bullshit.

 

 

All 3 combined are still remarkably behind NY and NY alone, despite all 3 having way more people than NY

[TheFlyingBoat 907]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

good point.  term limits, anyone?

Term limits aren't the answer because people staying in office too long isn't the primary issue. McCain, the old man he was, was far from the worst Republican in office. Patrick Leahy is far from the worst Democrat. Most of the crazies are relatively new and they are the ones who made disease control, basic national security, basic criminal justice, accountability, etc. and so much more political issues. I won't go too much into the politics side of it because this isn't the CR, but term limits won't solve it and will probably just give us a Republican Congress that is just made of Representatives and Senators that do whatever ALEC tells them too and a Democratic Congress that goes the way off whatever their equivalent is (they don't have one yet, but presumably a powerful one would finally stick the moment term limits passed). 

 

Truth be told the issue is more with the voters than anything else and this pandemic really opened my eyes to that fact. We really do have politicians that represent most Americans.

[dcar00 14356]

Just now, TheFlyingBoat said:

Term limits aren't the answer because people staying in office too long isn't the primary issue. McCain, the old man he was, was far from the worst Republican in office. Patrick Leahy is far from the worst Democrat. Most of the crazies are relatively new and they are the ones who made disease control, basic national security, basic criminal justice, accountability, etc. and so much more political issues. I won't go too much into the politics side of it because this isn't the CR, but term limits won't solve it and will probably just give us a Republican Congress that is just made of Representatives and Senators that do whatever ALEC tells them too and a Democratic Congress that goes the way off whatever their equivalent is (they don't have one yet, but presumably a powerful one would finally stick the moment term limits passed). 

 

Truth be told the issue is more with the voters than anything else and this pandemic really opened my eyes to that fact. We really do have politicians that represent most Americans.

Term limits are the answer.  it was never meant to be a job and it limits the corruption and other BS.  right, the Dems don't have an equivalent. sure thats it...

[TheFlyingBoat 907]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok so is your definition of up a day, down a day, up a day, back to average?

 

 

 

 

I mean I guess if we’re going to freak the fuck up about an uptick in 15 more deaths of day, then yea I’ll buy into your bullshit.

 

 

All 3 combined are still remarkably behind NY and NY alone, despite all 3 having way more people than NY

Take a moving average to smooth out bumps and you'll see a pretty damn clear trend. The far right graph is daily new deaths from April 1st to July 11. 

[TheFlyingBoat 907]

Just now, dcar00 said:

Term limits are the answer.  it was never meant to be a job and it limits the corruption and other BS.  right, the Dems don't have an equivalent. sure thats it...

The Dems don't have an equivalent to ALEC. That's factually accurate. Every few years someone tries to make one and it dies within five years. Term limits don't solve corruption. They don't improve representation. It's a good fucking bumper sticker policy and that's it unless you have some good arguments to the contrary.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

17 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok so is your definition of up a day, down a day, up a day, back to average?

 

 

 

 

I mean I guess if we’re going to freak the fuck up about an uptick in 15 more deaths of day, then yea I’ll buy into your bullshit.

 

 

All 3 combined are still remarkably behind NY and NY alone, despite all 3 having way more people than NY

You're fucking up the coin toss.

[dcar00 14356]

1 minute ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

The Dems don't have an equivalent to ALEC. That's factually accurate. Every few years someone tries to make one and it dies within five years. Term limits don't solve corruption. They don't improve representation. It's a good fucking bumper sticker policy and that's it unless you have some good arguments to the contrary.

Jefferson actually had term limits in the articles of the confederation(I'm sure he had bumper sticker on the ass of his horse and buggy).  it was removed but many argued against it vociferously as being a danger.  they fucked up.  sure it might not improve representation but I believe it wouldn't hurt it either and there is no proof it would hurt.

why do you think large corporations rotate buyers regularly?  

[aggie08 21530]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What a hot take! Who the hell said cases and deaths were on the same fucking axis? Ones clearly going up


And ones gone down for 11 weeks. Even deaths today/yesterday/Friday are down from Tuesday/Wed/Thursday. Shouldn’t those keep going up?

Dude. We're like 4 months into this now. Are you really still taking weekend numbers as gospel?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Dude. We're like 4 months into this now. Are you really still taking weekend numbers as gospel?

They have as much merit as Tuesday/Wednesday

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Take a moving average to smooth out bumps and you'll see a pretty damn clear trend. The far right graph is daily new deaths from April 1st to July 11. 

We’re basically 4 weeks into Texas’ uptick in cases and we’re debating with each other over 25-30 extra deaths in a state of 30 million?

I’ll begin to listen when Texas experiences even 25% of NY...so 250 deaths a day

[Brisketexan 105319]

3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

the guardian and vox and polls...nice

Really?  Please cite the portion of those articles indicating that they are "guardian" and "vox" polls.

As for me....I see citations to several polling sources, including Reuters, Ipsos, the Texas Politics Project, the Pew Research Center, and of course, those known leftist pussies over at [confirms leftist pussydom of source]....Fox News.

Would you like to pants yourself even further?  Because those same sources don't just speak to how a huge chunk of our population is scared shitless of muslims, but of mexicans as well:

Quote

At his very first campaign speech in 2015, Trump characterized Mexican immigrants as "rapists" who were "bringing crime" and "bringing drugs" to the US. A poll by Fox News asked voters back in July 2015 about these comments — and Republicans were much more likely to find them acceptable. About 70 percent said that, setting aside Trump’s wording, his comments were basically right, compared to 25 percent of Democrats. And a later poll by the Pew Research Center found about half of Trump supporters link undocumented immigrants to more crime than US citizens, versus 13 percent of Clinton supporters.

I ain't talking about what Trump thinks -- that's for the CR.  I'm talking about what a huge slice of Americans think.  A slice of Americans that is orders of magnitude more frightened of mooslem terrorists and mexican rapists than they are of a deadly/debilitating virus, even though they are many, many times more likely to be a victim of the virus than the other things....sharpening my point even more.

Americans are some pants-pissing scaredy-cats.....but mostly about things that AREN'T a material threat.  When it comes to things that ARE a material threat, we're stupid and bad at math.  

We are terrified of Muslims, a majority of Republicans support a "MUSLIM BAN!"....and since the beginning of 2016, by my count.....muslim terrorist acts have killed 57 Americans.

We're also terrified of Mexican murderers and rapists....even though illegal immigrants are 25% LESS likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans (and legal immigrants do even better -- they are 87% less likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans) -- Cato Institute study.  Per the GAO, around 450 undocumented immigrants are arrested for homicide each year.   Let's go nuts, and presume that more than half of them get away with it, and 1,000 undocumented immigrants commit murder each year.

Whereas, in contrast...in just a few months, a pandemic has killed 140,000 Americans.  While significant chunks of the population (with a lot of overlap to the fear groups above) believe that it's a hoax, masks are an evil government plot to steal our precious bodily fluids, etc.

140,000 in a few months.

57 in four years.

At most 1,000 a year.

We are pants-wetting stupid pussies who are bad at math.  And it shows.  Anyone praising our culture as not being one of fear is saying the opposite of the truth.

Edited July 12, 2020 by Brisketexan

[C-Man 27261]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

Term limits are the answer.  it was never meant to be a job and it limits the corruption and other BS.  right, the Dems don't have an equivalent. sure thats it...

Edited July 12, 2020 by C-Man

[Royalfan5 2355]

So the second wave is getting rolling here locally in Lincoln. Last week was the biggest since mid-May at 170 cases, and we just rolled in with 267 for this week capping with the biggest day in Months at 68. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

I ain't talking about what Trump thinks -- that's for the CR.  I'm talking about what a huge slice of Americans think.  A slice of Americans that is orders of magnitude more frightened of mooslem terrorists and mexican rapists than they are of a deadly/debilitating virus, even though they are many, many times more likely to be a victim of the virus than the other things....sharpening my point even more.
Americans are some pants-pissing scaredy-cats.....but mostly about things that AREN'T a material threat.  When it comes to things that ARE a material threat, we're stupid and bad at math.  
We are terrified of Muslims, a majority of Republicans support a "MUSLIM BAN!"....and since the beginning of 2016, by my count.....muslim terrorist acts have killed 57 Americans.
We're also terrified of Mexican murderers and rapists....even though illegal immigrants are 25% LESS likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans (and legal immigrants do even better -- they are 87% less likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans) -- Cato Institute study.  Per the GAO, around 450 undocumented immigrants are arrested for homicide each year.   Let's go nuts, and presume that more than half of them get away with it, and 1,000 undocumented immigrants commit murder each year.
Whereas, in contrast...in just a few months, a pandemic has killed 140,000 Americans.  While significant chunks of the population (with a lot of overlap to the fear groups above) believe that it's a hoax, masks are an evil government plot to steal our precious bodily fluids, etc.
140,000 in a few months.
57 in four years.
At most 1,000 a year.
We are pants-wetting stupid pussies who are bad at math.  And it shows.  Anyone praising our culture as not being one of fear is saying the opposite of the truth.

Lmao what in the hell?


Yea we know the average middle aged American has a much higher chance at dying to covid than they do to MS13. I guess I would much rather deal with covid that the alternative.

[dcar00 14356]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Really?  Please cite the portion of those articles indicating that they are "guardian" and "vox" polls.

As for me....I see citations to several polling sources, including Reuters, Ipsos, the Texas Politics Project, the Pew Research Center, and of course, those known leftist pussies over at [confirms leftist pussydom of source]....Fox News.

Would you like to pants yourself even further?  Because those same sources don't just speak to how a huge chunk of our population is scared shitless of muslims, but of mexicans as well:

 

Polls are for suckers. pablum for the masses.

Edited July 12, 2020 by dcar00

[DDD Dad 14348]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Lmao what in the hell?


Yea we know the average middle aged American has a much higher chance at dying to covid than they do to MS13. I guess I would much rather deal with covid that the alternative.

Well you are certainly much more likely to face the former than the latter.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Well you are certainly much more likely to face the former than the latter.

Exactly. If I knew what was behind door A and door B I’ll choose the covid door every day and twice on Sunday.

 

 

But we’re grasping at a matter of chances of dying of covid .0xx? To the chances of dying to ms13 .0000x?

[Royalfan5 2355]

Is MS-13 kills my ass, it’s likely to be fast, while COVID would be slow as hell and miserable. So if we’re picking, I know what route I’d go

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Is MS-13 kills my ass, it’s likely to be fast, while COVID would be slow as hell and miserable. So if we’re picking, I know what route I’d go

What if you’re asymptomatic and die in a car crash on the way to get a test?

[Royalfan5 2355]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What if you’re asymptomatic and die in a car crash on the way to get a test?

Well, then I’m dead and don’t likely give a fuck. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

18 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Polls are for suckers. pablum for the masses.

Lol.  First you rip (incorrectly) the ‘fact’ the polls themselves were done by liberal rags.  When called out you just make fun of all polls.  Do you ever admit you’re wrong?  Or just go around nonchalantly talking massive amounts of trash, giving zero fucks about bullshit like facts.  

[Incredulity 11683]

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

I’m pretty sure the only reasons for increased cases are more testing and BLM protests.

It would be nice to get to the facts about riskiest behaviors and methods to ameliorate that risk.

Obviously mask(which of course are problematic for dining and drinking) and distance are what is suggested/required thus far.

I can say from my restaurant/bar visits since reopening masks and distance were the order of the day when moving around. At the table no masks. The tables are distanced. I have only been to sportsbars and brewpubs so I can’t comment on party establishments.

I would think the former could have continued, but I guess its one size fits all.

[dcar00 14356]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  First you rip (incorrectly) the ‘fact’ the polls themselves were done by liberal rags.  When called out you just make fun of all polls.  Do you ever admit you’re wrong?  Or just go around nonchalantly talking massive amounts of trash, giving zero fucks about bullshit like facts.  

LOL. you dumbass.  I know you are a sooner so its not surprising you have trouble reading.  I didn't say it was liberal polls and I said referencing vox and guardian is just like when people say "oh yeah sure Fox News".  and polls from fox news suck too.  I'd have to check but I don't think I've ever referenced polls. they are all dumb, leading and biased.

do you ever admit you are a dumbass or do you go around nonchalantly over reacting like a shitty sooner and not reading?   This is how I'm supposed to Surly right?  point out shitty reading comprehension.

[babysdaddy 2728]

Term limits and ms13 in the Covid no politics thread. Very on brand surly

[Sawbonz 27587]

29 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Is MS-13 kills my ass, it’s likely to be fast, while COVID would be slow as hell and miserable. So if we’re picking, I know what route I’d go

Death by unga bunga!

[Dbeasy 15090]

Good grief, everyone in the world has seen a truckload of data related to covid, including China building dozens of hospitals in a few weeks, and Italy, Spain and New York dealing with out of control spreads and deaths.

There’s also mountains of evidence from South Korea, New Zealand, Germany and elsewhere that demonstrate unequivocally that masks, social distancing and significant limitations on citizen movement are what stops this virus from spiraling completely out of control and killing hundreds of thousands if not millions. We have 100% agreement among the medical community across the entire world that this is a serious health crisis.

And yet we still have people on this thread and out in the street who continue to apply kindergarten math, like dividing total daily deaths by populations of an entire state to argue this is all no big deal. The stupidity, or political bias, of these people is stunning, especially considering that many of these posters have received formal advanced education.

[Brisketexan 105319]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

so whats your call on amount of Americans "fearing" Muslims and Mexicans big boy?  lets get some numbers out here, you know scientific data and shit.

 

17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'd have to check but I don't think I've ever referenced polls. they are all dumb, leading and biased.

Step 1: demand data showing how people think about certain issues.

Step 2: when provided said data, say that ALL such sources of data (you know....polls) should be dismissed as "dumb, leading, and biased."

Yeah, I'll just leave that there.  It's kinda perfect.  When I say that as a species we're too stupid to continue, the evidence in favor of that position damn near collects itself.

The virus is not even a sentient being -- shit, it's not even a LIVING being....and it's outsmarting us.  And it ain't even close.  It's a fucking 77 point blowout, and half of America is doing a Jonathan Jolly celebration dance:

 

[Clintonaldo 2576]

4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Good grief, everyone in the world has seen a truckload of data related to covid, including China building dozens of hospitals in a few weeks, and Italy, Spain and New York dealing with out of control spreads and deaths.

There’s also mountains of evidence from South Korea, New Zealand, Germany and elsewhere that demonstrate unequivocally that masks, social distancing and significant limitations on citizen movement are what stops this virus from spiraling completely out of control and killing hundreds of thousands if not millions. We have 100% agreement among the medical community across the entire world that this is a serious health crisis.

And yet we still have people on this thread and out in the street who continue to apply kindergarten math, like dividing total daily deaths by populations of an entire state to argue this is all no big deal. The stupidity, or political bias, of these people is stunning, especially considering that many of these posters have received formal advanced education.

It really pisses me off that Americans are too inconsiderate to wear a fucking mask. I have never heard so many “ constitutionalists” come out of nowhere when they implemented wearing mask in public here last week. 

[atomheartbevo 89788]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

We’re getting Route 66’d by COVID.  Time for a head coaching change. 

Live shot of the Florida coach

[Guest Lobo]

That's because you're a Constitutional Evolutionist.  The Original Articles speak very clearly to masks and are not subject to Breyer/Ginsburg bullshit.  

There is so much in the Bible and Article II that clearly lays out mask and social distancing theory, it's not even funny...

[dcar00 14356]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Step 1: demand data showing how people think about certain issues.

Step 2: when provided said data, say that ALL such sources of data (you know....polls) should be dismissed as "dumb, leading, and biased."

Yeah, I'll just leave that there.  It's kinda perfect.  When I say that as a species we're too stupid to continue, the evidence in favor of that position damn near collects itself.

The virus is not even a sentient being -- shit, it's not even a LIVING being....and it's outsmarting us.  And it ain't even close.  It's a fucking 77 point blowout, and half of America is doing a Jonathan Jolly celebration dance:

 

more ranting.  why don't you just tell us the amount of americans that are afraid of mexicans and muslims based on the polls?

[justhookit 4191]

16 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Good grief, everyone in the world has seen a truckload of data related to covid, including China building dozens of hospitals in a few weeks, and Italy, Spain and New York dealing with out of control spreads and deaths.

There’s also mountains of evidence from South Korea, New Zealand, Germany and elsewhere that demonstrate unequivocally that masks, social distancing and significant limitations on citizen movement are what stops this virus from spiraling completely out of control and killing hundreds of thousands if not millions. We have 100% agreement among the medical community across the entire world that this is a serious health crisis.

And yet we still have people on this thread and out in the street who continue to apply kindergarten math, like dividing total daily deaths by populations of an entire state to argue this is all no big deal. The stupidity, or political bias, of these people is stunning, especially considering that many of these posters have received formal advanced education.

Kindergarten math is beyond reach for a few of these posters you are referencing.

in related news, the CDC updated their estimate for IFR. Also some interesting stuff in the article about asymptomatic cases. If it’s accurate your “masks, social distancing, and significant limitations on citizen movement” will be with us well into 2021. 

Quote

The new report also included an "Infection Fatality Ratio," which counts deaths in symptomatic and asymptomatic cases to more accurately capture "disease severity." Under the new metric, the CDC estimated that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are forecasted to die. 

https://news.yahoo.com/40-people-infected-covid-19-183643643.html?guccounter=1

Edited July 12, 2020 by justhookit

[DDD Dad 14348]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Live shot of the Florida coach

[Brisketexan 105319]

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

more ranting.  why don't you just tell us the amount of americans that are afraid of mexicans and muslims based on the polls?

When did you unlearn how to read?

And....why would I waste time citing poll numbers to you (they are right there in those articles, by the way -- and seriously, there's literally HUNDREDS more such pieces -- those were literally the first couple when I googled the issue)....when you already said that polls are all dumb, leading and biased.  Why would I waste my time pointing to sources that you've already dismissed?

How about we start this way: to meaningfully discuss the proposition that Americans fear certain things, what sort of data would YOU find to be generally instructional and informational?  Tell me what that data is (whether it's polls, or some magical "here's how many people think X-ometer," or something else), and I'll tell you the exact Google search to run to find it, and even quote a few for you?

Or, you could just quit being a pathetic chickenshit, admit that you have pantsed yourself numerous times just today, the data shows that a large percentage of people, particularly among Republican voters, are so afraid of Muslims that they think they should be banned from entering the country, and a similarly large percentage is so afraid of Mexicans that they think we should build a militarized wall to keep them out.  I mean, these aren't difficult conclusions to reach -- they are LITERALLY THE FUCKING POLICY OF AN ADMINISTRATION THAT RAN ON THAT FUCKING PLATFORM AND GOT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR IT.  How about that "poll?"  Does that one fucking count?  Jesus, it's not just that you're fucking stupid, it's that you're a fucking bore.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11820]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

We’re basically 4 weeks into Texas’ uptick in cases and we’re debating with each other over 25-30 extra deaths in a state of 30 million?

I’ll begin to listen when Texas experiences even 25% of NY...so 250 deaths a day

Wow.  Death bargaining.  Sad.

[dcar00 14356]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When did you unlearn how to read?

And....why would I waste time citing poll numbers to you (they are right there in those articles, by the way -- and seriously, there's literally HUNDREDS more such pieces -- those were literally the first couple when I googled the issue)....when you already said that polls are all dumb, leading and biased.  Why would I waste my time pointing to sources that you've already dismissed?

How about we start this way: to meaningfully discuss the proposition that Americans fear certain things, what sort of data would YOU find to be generally instructional and informational?  Tell me what that data is (whether it's polls, or some magical "here's how many people think X-ometer," or something else), and I'll tell you the exact Google search to run to find it, and even quote a few for you?

Or, you could just quit being a pathetic chickenshit, admit that you have pantsed yourself numerous times just today, the data shows that a large percentage of people, particularly among Republican voters, are so afraid of Muslims that they think they should be banned from entering the country, and a similarly large percentage is so afraid of Mexicans that they think we should build a militarized wall to keep them out.  I mean, these aren't difficult conclusions to reach -- they are LITERALLY THE FUCKING POLICY OF AN ADMINISTRATION THAT RAN ON THAT FUCKING PLATFORM AND GOT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR IT.  How about that "poll?"  Does that one fucking count?  Jesus, it's not just that you're fucking stupid, it's that you're a fucking bore.

the election poll counts.  quit being a chicken shit and just cite your number.  you are the one that brought it up and the one that started the whole thing.  more mayor of brisket town shit.  you must be pretty fucking miserable.

[Brisketexan 105319]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

the election poll counts.  quit being a chicken shit and just cite your number.  you are the one that brought it up and the one that started the whole thing.  more mayor of brisket town shit.  you must be pretty fucking miserable.

I confess that when I ponder the fact that I have to share a planet with millions of people as stupid as you, I do tend to become discouraged. Then, when I realize that most of you actually think you're smart and clever, I become downright despondent.

I cited you to polls.  With actual percentages of people (both Americans overall and Republicans, who made up around 50% of the voting electorate last election -- well, 48%, but who's counting that precisely?)  who support a Muslim ban (as just one example).  If you can't back into math, and you want to demand that I perform some exact census of such people ("It's 43,857,343....exactly!")....fuck off.  It's tens of fucking millions.  And they are loud and proud.  You fucking know it.  I fucking know it.  We're goddamned moronistan, and you're clearly prepping for your run for grand poobah.  I gotta tell you, you're burnishing the shit out of your credentials.

[jimmyjazz 46124]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

Can you please cite your source?

[Incredulity 11683]

Pretty sure that’s worldometers

[TwiceHorn 31534]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Really?  Please cite the portion of those articles indicating that they are "guardian" and "vox" polls.

As for me....I see citations to several polling sources, including Reuters, Ipsos, the Texas Politics Project, the Pew Research Center, and of course, those known leftist pussies over at [confirms leftist pussydom of source]....Fox News.

Would you like to pants yourself even further?  Because those same sources don't just speak to how a huge chunk of our population is scared shitless of muslims, but of mexicans as well:

I ain't talking about what Trump thinks -- that's for the CR.  I'm talking about what a huge slice of Americans think.  A slice of Americans that is orders of magnitude more frightened of mooslem terrorists and mexican rapists than they are of a deadly/debilitating virus, even though they are many, many times more likely to be a victim of the virus than the other things....sharpening my point even more.

Americans are some pants-pissing scaredy-cats.....but mostly about things that AREN'T a material threat.  When it comes to things that ARE a material threat, we're stupid and bad at math.  

We are terrified of Muslims, a majority of Republicans support a "MUSLIM BAN!"....and since the beginning of 2016, by my count.....muslim terrorist acts have killed 57 Americans.

We're also terrified of Mexican murderers and rapists....even though illegal immigrants are 25% LESS likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans (and legal immigrants do even better -- they are 87% less likely to commit homicide than native-born Americans) -- Cato Institute study.  Per the GAO, around 450 undocumented immigrants are arrested for homicide each year.   Let's go nuts, and presume that more than half of them get away with it, and 1,000 undocumented immigrants commit murder each year.

Whereas, in contrast...in just a few months, a pandemic has killed 140,000 Americans.  While significant chunks of the population (with a lot of overlap to the fear groups above) believe that it's a hoax, masks are an evil government plot to steal our precious bodily fluids, etc.

140,000 in a few months.

57 in four years.

At most 1,000 a year.

We are pants-wetting stupid pussies who are bad at math.  And it shows.  Anyone praising our culture as not being one of fear is saying the opposite of the truth.

Yep.

Voter fear is why we have the war on drugs.

Voter fear is why we have the civil rights incursions associated with the war on terror, i.e. a surveillance state.

Voter fear is why we incarcerate more people than any country on the planet.  Gross and all the per capitas.

Anyone that does not acknowledge that electoral fear is one of the most reliable political strategies in America, either hasn't been paying attention, or  . . . . 

[Brisketexan 105319]

31 minutes ago, justhookit said:

The new report also included an "Infection Fatality Ratio," which counts deaths in symptomatic and asymptomatic cases to more accurately capture "disease severity." Under the new metric, the CDC estimated that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are forecasted to die.

So, at that IFR, if the entire US catches it, that's 2,145,000 deaths.  Of course, even if it is just allowed to run wild forever, we won't get 100% infected.  We'll have some sort of herd immunity by 70% infected or so.  So, that would yield around 1,500,000 deaths.  And again, we're not even talking about the lifetime debilitating condition of millions of COVID survivors....we're just talking deaths.

Over the 5 months that it has been in real circulation here, we're averaging about 25,000 dead per month.  We can keep doing this for a couple of years to hit that number.  Even at our current pace of around 20,000 a month, we'll rack up some solid numbers.  Add another 120,000 dead by year end.  We can hit a cool quarter million by then.  I was thinking a couple of months ago that we'd be able to hold it under 240,000, but that's gonna be tough now.  

Nevermind that the people who didn't end up with it during the main burn through the population will always be susceptible.  And new generations will as well.  Bottom line, without a vaccine, were fucked.  We'll manage to kill well over a million of us here in the US, and then have a solid burn of it every year that rivals the flu.  And AGAIN, this isn't even counting the massive damage to lungs and internal organs of survivors.  We'll get a shitload of "early" deaths from those folks over the next 20 years as well.  Winning, winning, winning!

[Dahobbs 17682]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, at that IFR, if the entire US catches it, that's 2,145,000 deaths.  Of course, even if it is just allowed to run wild forever, we won't get 100% infected.  We'll have some sort of herd immunity by 70% infected or so.  So, that would yield around 1,500,000 deaths.  And again, we're not even talking about the lifetime debilitating condition of millions of COVID survivors....we're just talking deaths.

Over the 5 months that it has been in real circulation here, we're averaging about 25,000 dead per month.  We can keep doing this for a couple of years to hit that number.  Even at our current pace of around 20,000 a month, we'll rack up some solid numbers.  Add another 120,000 dead by year end.  We can hit a cool quarter million by then.  I was thinking a couple of months ago that we'd be able to hold it under 240,000, but that's gonna be tough now.  

Nevermind that the people who didn't end up with it during the main burn through the population will always be susceptible.  And new generations will as well.  Bottom line, without a vaccine, were fucked.  We'll manage to kill well over a million of us here in the US, and then have a solid burn of it every year that rivals the flu.  And AGAIN, this isn't even counting the massive damage to lungs and internal organs of survivors.  We'll get a shitload of "early" deaths from those folks over the next 20 years as well.  Winning, winning, winning!

Epidemics/Pandemics have momentum. The faster the spread occurs, the more we exceed the herd immunity threshold. Total infected in an uncontrolled situation would well exceed the herd immunity threshold. So, don't rule out 100% (or close to it) yet!

Edited July 12, 2020 by Dahobbs

[jimmyjazz 46124]

35 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Pretty sure that’s worldometers

You're right -- I only checked it on my phone and could never get it to scroll down to the bottom of the Texas page.  Thank you.

[jimmyjazz 46124]

I remember being excoriated for extrapolating the exponential growth rate to 50,000 dead Americans . . . and missing it by one week.

YAY, pessimism!  I'm such a stick in the mud.  I'm sure the families of those 10,000 Americans who waited an extra week to die are grateful.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So, at that IFR, if the entire US catches it, that's 2,145,000 deaths.  Of course, even if it is just allowed to run wild forever, we won't get 100% infected.  We'll have some sort of herd immunity by 70% infected or so.  So, that would yield around 1,500,000 deaths.  And again, we're not even talking about the lifetime debilitating condition of millions of COVID survivors....we're just talking deaths.
Over the 5 months that it has been in real circulation here, we're averaging about 25,000 dead per month.  We can keep doing this for a couple of years to hit that number.  Even at our current pace of around 20,000 a month, we'll rack up some solid numbers.  Add another 120,000 dead by year end.  We can hit a cool quarter million by then.  I was thinking a couple of months ago that we'd be able to hold it under 240,000, but that's gonna be tough now.  
Nevermind that the people who didn't end up with it during the main burn through the population will always be susceptible.  And new generations will as well.  Bottom line, without a vaccine, were fucked.  We'll manage to kill well over a million of us here in the US, and then have a solid burn of it every year that rivals the flu.  And AGAIN, this isn't even counting the massive damage to lungs and internal organs of survivors.  We'll get a shitload of "early" deaths from those folks over the next 20 years as well.  Winning, winning, winning!

You’re just going to lazily plug in .65 of 329m people and ignore that the death rate of those 60y/o and under is well below .65 and also make up a majority of the country?