Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Brisketexan 105,095]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You’re just going to lazily plug in .65 of 329m people and ignore that the death rate of those 60y/o and under is well below .65 and also make up a majority of the country?

Ummmm.....yes?  Because the IFR is, literally, the IFR for.....every infected person.  The IFR for those over 65 is surely much higher.  The IFR of those under 10 is surely way lower.  The .65% IFR is LITERALLY the IFR for the population as a whole.  So, yes, I'm going to apply it to the population as a whole.

[Dahobbs 17,534]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You’re just going to lazily plug in .65 of 329m people and ignore that the death rate of those 60y/o and under is well below .65 and also make up a majority of the country?

IFR is based on a population. .65% is the mixed number. Yes, it'll have a higher fatality rate for those older or with pre-existing conditions. It'll have a lower fatality rate for the young. And the overall fatality rate is projected to be (in this instance), .65%. So, multiplying that by the total number infected to get a predicted death count is entirely appropriate. 

[drt 638]

[Brew 3,049]

Dcar has to be three sheets to the wind with his logic today. I’m not sure why a few of you are going in this circle with him and MN.

[DDD Dad 14,332]

Dcar has to be three sheets to the wind with his logic today. I’m not sure why a few of you are going in this circle with him and MN.

It’s fascinating.

[aggie08 21,496]

18 minutes ago, Brew said:

Dcar has to be three sheets to the wind with his logic today. I’m not sure why a few of you are going in this circle with him and MN.

I was just about to post that they both need to take a lap, and come back tomorrow with more scorching hot takes.

But claiming that they're drunk would at least save some dignity.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

IFR is based on a population. .65% is the mixed number. Yes, it'll have a higher fatality rate for those older or with pre-existing conditions. It'll have a lower fatality rate for the young. And the overall fatality rate is projected to be (in this instance), .65%. So, multiplying that by the total number infected to get a predicted death count is entirely appropriate. 

We’re never going to know the true infection rate and also how many are infected now and have been infected already. The tests and antibody tests aren’t reliable at all. Guess I’ll just sit here and hope the death rates go down and we don’t have any over ran hospitals. Should be interesting to see what happens to the rest of the country once FL/TX and CA calm down

[immortal13 4,059]

6 hours ago, Lobo said:

the Fear of Covid-19 is somewhat powerful because it's somewhat irrational and somewhat based in mathematics.  

the Fear of losing your country to people who aren't really like you is incredibly powerful because it's entirely based on irrationality and not at all based on reason.  Some would say you could form an entire leadership platform around that fear.  That fear is far more powerful than any fear of a virus.  We are biologically programmed to fear what we can see, and to ignore what we don't see.  The real trick to real power is to convince people that they already saw what they feared most and didn't act accordingly.  

Tell that to the Indians

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

We’re never going to know the true infection rate and also how many are infected now and have been infected already. The tests and antibody tests aren’t reliable at all. Guess I’ll just sit here and hope the death rates go down and we don’t have any over ran hospitals. Should be interesting to see what happens to the rest of the country once FL/TX and CA calm down

How do you think we're doing in terms of counting bodies?

Jesus Christ, I hope some of you didn't go to UT.  It's fucking depressing.

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

57 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You’re just going to lazily plug in .65 of 329m people and ignore that the death rate of those 60y/o and under is well below .65 and also make up a majority of the country?

I'm so glad you kept talking. There's an old saying about it being better to keep quiet and let people think you're dumb than open your mouth and confirm it for everyone. Thank God you didn't heed that and confirmed you can't read, think or understand basic math. Now I know I should only waste my time on you if I want the lulz of hearing dumb shit like a full throated argument that the rate of incidence of x across the entire population multiplied by the total population isn't the total incidences in the population. Fucking brilliant.

Edited July 13, 2020 by TheFlyingBoat

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

I was just about to post that they both need to take a lap, and come back tomorrow with more scorching hot takes.
But claiming that they're drunk would at least save some dignity.

It’s ok to see things differently than others and have a different perspective to add to the conversation



It’d probably get stale reading we’re so fucked every other post

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

I'm so glad you kept talking. There's an old saying about it being better to keep quiet and let people think you're dumb than open your mouth and confirm it for everyone. Thank God you didn't heed that and confirmed you can't read, think or understand basic math. Now I know I should only waste my time on you if I want the lulz.

380 deaths today! Exponential!


I’ll see ya Tuesday when it’s magically back to 800

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

380 deaths today! Exponential!


I’ll see ya Tuesday when it’s magically back to 800

Are you literally brain damaged?  Have you not been paying attention for months and months?  Do you not know the pattern, and are you incapable of understanding why it exists?

This is why separating the CR from DT is stupid.  All the idiots congregate over here.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

How do you think we're doing in terms of counting bodies?
Jesus Christ, I hope some of you didn't go to UT.  It's fucking depressing.

I didn’t. Take a deep breath

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I didn’t. Take a deep breath

Then take "Longhorn" out of your user name.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Are you literally brain damaged?  Have you not been paying attention for months and months?  Do you not know the pattern, and are you incapable of understanding why it exists?
This is why separating the CR from DT is stupid.  All the idiots congregate over here.

I look at it multiple times a day. I know exactly what the pattern is and what week we’re currently mirroring.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

380 deaths today! Exponential!


I’ll see ya Tuesday when it’s magically back to 800

He literally said earlier get out of here with your piddly shit 25 or 30 death per day increase, he might listen when we exceed 250 per day.  He actually fucking said that.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

He literally said earlier get out of here with your piddly shit 25 or 30 death per day increase, he might listen when we exceed 250 per day.  He actually fucking said that.
 

Well I’m comparing Texas to New York. You’re not even in their league. I mean you seem pissed your deaths aren’t higher so you can say you were right.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Well I’m comparing Texas to New York. You’re not even in their league. I mean you seem pissed your deaths aren’t higher so you can say you were right.

You best sign out of the internet a bit and go play with your kid or something, pal. Because minimizing deaths isn’t a winning strategy.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

You best sign out of the internet a bit and go play with your kid or something, pal. Because minimizing deaths isn’t a winning strategy.

Nice deflection, bud.

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Well I’m comparing Texas to New York. You’re not even in their league. I mean you seem pissed your deaths aren’t higher so you can say you were right.

I'm sorry, is this a contest?  Are the 1,025 lives lost in New York at their peak worth more on an individual basis than the 121 lives lost in Texas last Wednesday?

You're so on top of this, are you capable of understanding the spread of this thing across the country?  I mean, have you looked at a map recently?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Nice deflection, bud.

Deflection from what?  I’m here in Austin, TX, living and working in one of the worst hit zip codes in America right now.  What dog do you have in this fight?  Up there telling people pfft, screw your 25 or 30 per day death increase, “I’ll listen when you hit >250 a la New York”   Fuck you, you said that.  Say it again when it’s your community and your family.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

I'm sorry, is this a contest?  Are the 1,025 lives lost in New York at their peak worth more on an individual basis than the 121 lives lost in Texas last Wednesday?
You're so on top of this, are you capable of understanding the spread of this thing across the country?  I mean, have you looked at a map recently?

It’s not a contest. All I’m doing is comparing America’s worst hit spot to Texas. It’s using NY as a standard for what to avoid. If you’re gonna post next “one covid death is one too many” then we finally agree on something.



The spread sucks. Having our 3 most populous states go through this at once is less than ideal.This whole situation is god awful. I check almost hourly to see if there’s ever a glimmer of a light at the end of the tunnel which we saw for 11 consecutive weeks of declining deaths. Hopefully it’s a combo of better care, weaker strain and keeping it out of nursing homes.


Looking at it 24/7 as a doomsday we’re fucked approach would’ve worn on me in fucking April at our darkest hour

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

10 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Well I’m comparing Texas to New York. You’re not even in their league. I mean you seem pissed your deaths aren’t higher so you can say you were right.

Yet. The word you're missing is yet. We're not even in their league yet. With cases, hospitalizations, and deaths still all following an exponential curve we're likely not going see new cases per day level off for another week or so at best. Further, whenever the number of new cases per day levels off it will be far above what it is now. That means deaths per day probably won't level off for another two to three weeks and when it does it will also be significantly higher than it is now as well. Integrate the area under that curve to calculate the total deaths and you're looking at a high number.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Yet. The word you're missing is yet. We're not even in their league yet. With cases, hospitalizations, and deaths still all following an exponential curve we're likely not going see new cases per day level off for another week or so at best. Further, whenever the number of new cases per day levels off it will be far above what it is now. That means deaths per day probably won't level off for another two to three weeks and when it does it will also be significantly higher than it is now as well. Integrate the area under that curve to calculate the total deaths and you're looking at a high number.

Let’s hope not

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s not a contest. All I’m doing is comparing America’s worst hit spot to Texas. It’s using NY as a standard for what to avoid. If you’re gonna post next “one covid death is one too many” then we finally agree on something.



The spread sucks. Having our 3 most populous states go through this at once is less than ideal.This whole situation is god awful. I check almost hourly to see if there’s ever a glimmer of a light at the end of the tunnel which we saw for 11 consecutive weeks of declining deaths. Hopefully it’s a combo of better care, weaker strain and keeping it out of nursing homes.


Looking at it 24/7 as a doomsday we’re fucked approach would’ve worn on me in fucking April at our darkest hour

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

That’s fucking low and you know it

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

Haha.  That’s what it felt like though, man. 

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

13 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Looking at it 24/7 as a doomsday we’re fucked approach would’ve worn on me in fucking April at our darkest hour

It should wear on you.  Whatever you're doing to mitigate your emotional response is silly.  This is really bad.

[Js1 85,311]

In the contest of who has become the worst poster since March, we have a CLEAR winner. 

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

Let's do a little sleuthing:  when the state of New York was first losing approximately 120 citizens per day, it took how long for that number to increase 8-fold?

 

<pause for MN to query his death database>

 

Oh hell, here's the answer.  16 days.

So, hang onto your hats, boys.  Our "past experience" indicates Texas could get National Championship level bad in two weeks or so.

(Will that happen?  Probably not.  We know that shutting down nonessential businesses, social distancing, and wearing a fucking mask actually work.  It's still a scary slice of history.)

[gmr548 16,576]

3-the virus is airborne (not droplet) per the angry letter to the WHO signed by 200+ doctors and epidemiologists;
 

Important clarification: The airborne transmission the WHO acknowledged isn't really new information, they were just very slow to come around. We've known that it can circulate indoors via respiratory droplets for a while. Hence the masks.

[Paper_jam 831]

This thread title needs a slight edit:

DT: COVID-19? - NO, POLITICS ALLOWED!

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

So @dcar00 is Rocko and the dude from Minnesota is just a complete fucking idiot.

nice little Sunday.

[Captainant 27,654]

Wait, is dcar actually rocko?? That would make everything make much more sense. 

@dcar00 how you enjoying your brand new 1995 'vette?

[Redpuma 146]

 

[Redpuma 146]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

So [mention=2596]dcar00[/mention] is Rocko and the dude from Minnesota is just a complete fucking idiot.

nice little Sunday.

Ah there it is. I knew you couldn’t hold it in you miserable fuck

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Let's do a little sleuthing:  when the state of New York was first losing approximately 120 citizens per day, it took how long for that number to increase 8-fold?
 

 
Oh hell, here's the answer.  16 days.
So, hang onto your hats, boys.  Our "past experience" indicates Texas could get National Championship level bad in two weeks or so.
(Will that happen?  Probably not.  We know that shutting down nonessential businesses, social distancing, and wearing a fucking mask actually work.  It's still a scary slice of history.)

I wIlL mArK jUlY 24 oN mY CaLeNdAR

[dcar00 14,181]

15 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wait, is dcar actually rocko?? That would make everything make much more sense. 

@dcar00 how you enjoying your brand new 1995 'vette?

the CR cabal thinks I'm rocko how sweet.

[staboner 4,969]

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

So 65% of the deaths reported in this were back logged?

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

30 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ah there it is. I knew you couldn’t hold it in you miserable fuck

Have a great night! Been one helluva day for ya!

[Captainant 27,654]

30 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the CR cabal thinks I'm rocko how sweet.

Did you post on TOS? What was your old handle? Actually curious 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,739]

11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Did you post on TOS? What was your old handle? Actually curious 

Someone as low intellect as dcar would be memorable. He doesn’t have the same pizazz as rocko. More like a cross between johnny sack and Swam. FCHorn is another candidate given the sheer volume of idiocy.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Have a great night! Been one helluva day for ya!

Thanks hun

[NAVY 6,740]

Watched the Austin news tonight. There was a story about a local company working on a Covid vaccine. They mentioned that finding volunteers for clinical trials was a national problem. 
 

Surly, what’s your take? Would you volunteer? 

[Hate 20,108]

21 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Watched the Austin news tonight. There was a story about a local company working on a Covid vaccine. They mentioned that finding volunteers for clinical trials was a national problem. 
 

Surly, what’s your take? Would you volunteer? 

I would absolutely volunteer many Surlians...or is it Surlites? 

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

4 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Let’s hope not

Of course, I would love to be wrong and have competent leadership at the local, state, and federal leadership, but best case scenario in Texas one can hope for is the first. Then we also need to hope the people do the right thing and that's just not happening unfortunately. But yeah, if I could be wrong and COVID vanished tomorrow I'd jump for joy.

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

3 hours ago, Redpuma said:

 

Jesus why is it every time I hear Okinawa and the US military it's the military embarrassing us. Fucking hell.