Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Hate 20108]

I'd really like to hear some plausible explanation as to why there hasn't been a huge outbreak from Sturgis.  Is it still too early?  Are we 2 weeks away (not joking but joking)?  How is it possible there have only been 100 reported cases so far?  The only thing I can think of is that it is still too early as it has been exactly 2 weeks since it officially ended today. I guess we need to wait to see how many people those 100 passed it to?

Edited August 31, 2020 by Hate

[Goofyboy 3277]

No one that went is getting tested because they don’t want to? No tests - no reportable cases. It doesn’t mean they aren’t there.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Do you have a point? 
 

My point is that’s a very random person to include in your post so it’s fucking obvious you read what he has to say too..but scolded me for posting it. Lol

[dcar00 14181]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

I'd really like to hear some plausible explanation as to why there hasn't been a huge outbreak from Sturgis.  Is it still too early?  Are we 2 weeks away (not joking but joking)?  How is it possible there have only been 100 reported cases so far?  The only thing I can think of is that it is still too early as it has been exactly 2 weeks since it officially ended today. I guess we need to wait to see how many people those 100 passed it to?

dude, its obvious, they are all sick but are refusing medical attention to keep the numbers down

[Hate 20108]

2 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

No one that went is getting tested because they don’t want to? No tests - no reportable cases. It doesn’t mean they aren’t there.

Ok.  I guess we will have to wait to see if we see a rise in hospitalizations over the next week to ten days?  I'd be interested to see how many of those 100 had to be hospitalized. 

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

The people that went to sturgis then spread back out all over the country. Unless they get tested AND offer up their previous travel, how would anyone know it came from there?

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The people that went to sturgis then spread back out all over the country. Unless they get tested AND offer up their previous travel, how would anyone know it came from there?

right, that is how they found the OMG 100 people but some said they went elsewhere also and so they couldn't confirm where it came from. which is pretty much the case for probably 90% of the cases out there.  contract tracing is pretty difficult to truly pinpoint so people just decide to use it to further their agenda.  Memorial Day BBQ and Churches(spread everywhere rubes!!)  protests(no spread at all!!).

[Chopper 17230]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The people that went to sturgis then spread back out all over the country. Unless they get tested AND offer up their previous travel, how would anyone know it came from there?

The article linked had some govt official saying that people mostly stayed outdoors and didn't hang out inside bars. Also the age of the attendees skewed younger. But yeah, 2 weeks and no government wide contact tracing probably isn't going to turn up a lot of cases so I'm guessing the statistics are meaningless.

26 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

My point is that’s a very random person to include in your post so it’s fucking obvious you read what he has to say too..but scolded me for posting it. Lol

Is it random though? Somehow I was spot on so perhaps not as random as you think. I find a general question like that is helpful for me to understand a person's depth of knowledge and ability to use critical thinking skills. I'm curious though - by chance were you also a vociferous poster in the thread 'espn should stfu about politics'?  I guess though you'd be surprised how often people make note of the stupid shit that Clay Travis says and write about it so other people will understand what some of the crazy fucktards like him in the media are saying.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Double post

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Is it random though? Somehow I was spot on so perhaps not as random as you think. I find a general question like that is helpful for me to understand a person's depth of knowledge and ability to use critical thinking skills. I'm curious though - by chance were you also a vociferous poster in the thread 'espn should stfu about politics'?  I guess though you'd be surprised how often people make note of the stupid shit that Clay Travis says and write about it so other people will understand what some of the crazy fucktards like him in the media are saying.  

I wasn’t. Clays a douche. But you’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he’s been posting covid material opposed to info you’d see elsewhere. Which is why I posted a graph that you had a hernia over

[Chopper 17230]

11 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I wasn’t. Clays a douche. But you’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he’s been posting covid material opposed to info you’d see elsewhere. Which is why I posted a graph that you had a hernia over

I didn't have a hernia. I just think it's fucking stupid. I asked you a specific question about it which you never answered so obviously it's not as informative as you thought. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

I didn't have a hernia. I just think it's fucking stupid. I asked you a specific question about it which you never answered so obviously it's not as informative as you thought. 

I have no idea if it’s only applicable to the US, nor do I care if its like this in Germany/Spain etc.

 

It’s no secret that the second your checked into LTC, your time on earth is nearly over.

[Chopper 17230]

10 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I have no idea if it’s only applicable to the US, nor do I care if its like this in Germany/Spain etc.

Some people, like you, don't understand that causation isn't the same thing as correlation. That's why it's important. The virus and its effects aren't happening in a vacuum. There's a reason seniors in Japan died at one-eighth the rate of seniors in the US even though they experienced similar quarantines and isolation. You just want to grasp random bs that idiots throw out there as long as it confirms your bias. Fact is, our federal government was just too lazy and stupid to take action. The tremendous death rate here was totally avoidable if we had a competent federal government and governors who weren't just as stupid as Clay Travis. Please fuck off now. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Chopper
punctuation

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Some people, like you, don't understand that causation isn't the same thing as correlation. That's why it's important. The virus and its effects aren't happening in a vacuum. There's a reason seniors in Japan died at one-eighth the rate of seniors in the US even though they experienced similar quarantines and isolation. You just want to grasp random bs that idiots throw out there as long as it confirms your bias. Fact is, our federal government was just too lazy and stupid to take action. The tremendous death rate here was totally avoidable if we had a competent federal government and governors who weren't just as stupid as Clay Travis. Please fuck off now. 

Ok coronabro

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Some people, like you, don't understand that causation isn't the same thing as correlation. That's why it's important. The virus and its effects aren't happening in a vacuum. There's a reason seniors in Japan died at one-eighth the rate of seniors in the US even though they experienced similar quarantines and isolation. You just want to grasp random bs that idiots throw out there as long as it confirms your bias. Fact is, our federal government was just too lazy and stupid to take action. The tremendous death rate here was totally avoidable if we had a competent federal government and governors who weren't just as stupid as Clay Travis. Please fuck off now. 

the japanese numbers are inaccurate because they were trying to save the olympics.

[Guest Lobo]

44 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the japanese numbers are inaccurate because they were trying to save the olympics.

No you mean they were trying to save their Olympians?   All those octogenarian archers?

[Eastwood 4394]

After watching what happened in places like NY and Italy, states put COVID measures like lockdown and masks into effect. Numbers stay low. People point to the low numbers as to why we don't need COVID measures. Government relaxes measures and numbers spike. Government reinstitutes measures. Numbers start to drop. People point to dropping numbers as to why we don't need measures.

It's the damnedest thing.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

9 hours ago, Hate said:

I'd really like to hear some plausible explanation as to why there hasn't been a huge outbreak from Sturgis.  Is it still too early?  Are we 2 weeks away (not joking but joking)?  How is it possible there have only been 100 reported cases so far?  The only thing I can think of is that it is still too early as it has been exactly 2 weeks since it officially ended today. I guess we need to wait to see how many people those 100 passed it to?

See, it's like this, the Coronavirus doesn't affect people who are protesting.  The bikers are protesting conventional life, the coronavirus doesn't know why they're protesting, only that they're protesting.  See ?

[Neonmoon 38129]

53 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

After watching what happened in places like NY and Italy, states put COVID measures like lockdown and masks into effect. Numbers stay low. People point to the low numbers as to why we don't need COVID measures. Government relaxes measures and numbers spike. Government reinstitutes measures. Numbers start to drop. People point to dropping numbers as to why we don't need measures.

It's the damnedest thing.

[BradInATX 9208]

He’s expecting the last 20 weeks of the year to fall short of the death standard in that time frame compared to a normal year.

So you and he are both ignoring CDC numbers showing roughly 300,000 excess deaths (all causes) over annual average so far for the year? Hopefully not because that would be being willfully ignorant.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

what happened in places like NY

[Eastwood 4394]

Not sure what you're trying to gif over, here. NY failed miserably in the beginning. All this self patting on the back by them is like a plumber busting a pipe and then claiming he did a good job after fixing it. If NY is an example of anything, it's an example of how much damage can be done by being unable to make an unpopular decision that will save lives in the end.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

After watching what happened in places like NY and Italy, states put COVID measures like lockdown and masks into effect. Numbers stay low. People point to the low numbers as to why we don't need COVID measures. Government relaxes measures and numbers spike. Government reinstitutes measures. Numbers start to drop. People point to dropping numbers as to why we don't need measures.

It's the damnedest thing.

It's almost as if we need a good plague....

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

Not sure what you're trying to gif over, here.

It's because I'm an idiot and read too fast. I thought you were implying that masks were effective early on in NY. Imma go get some coffee and STFU for a while.

[Eastwood 4394]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It's because I'm an idiot and read too fast. I thought you were implying that masks were effective early on in NY. Imma go get some coffee and STFU for a while.

Yeah, I could have worded it better. For those still confused, people watched the virus have a devastating impact on Italy and NY and implemented measures to avoid that in their own areas.

[Chopper 17230]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

16 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

He’s expecting the last 20 weeks of the year to fall short of the death standard in that time frame compared to a normal year.

So you and he are both ignoring CDC numbers showing roughly 300,000 excess deaths (all causes) over annual average so far for the year? Hopefully not because that would be being willfully ignorant.

He and the famed twitterer he quoted at length are also ignoring this from the CDC's own website:

Quote

Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Edited August 31, 2020 by Chopper

[clapclapclap 9000]

Lockdown extended further:

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by clapclapclap
Every bit helps

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So you and he are both ignoring CDC numbers showing roughly 300,000 excess deaths (all causes) over annual average so far for the year? Hopefully not because that would be being willfully ignorant.

Like from suicide and overdose deaths that wouldn’t have happened if their livelihoods weren’t shot? Sure.

[BradInATX 9208]

Like from suicide and overdose deaths that wouldn’t have happened if their livelihoods weren’t shot? Sure.

Can you find a single piece of data to support this, or are you just being pedantic?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Can you find a single piece of data to support this, or are you just being pedantic?

Excess covid death+ lockdown excess OD/suicide deaths must be ~300k huh?


No I don’t have data

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Excess covid death+ lockdown excess OD/suicide deaths must be ~300k huh?


No I don’t have data

There are ~45,000 suicides per year, so that would represent an almost 700% increase, which obviously is not even remotely realistic. I did some quick searching and found that so far, there's no evidence of a spike in suicides. I'm not saying it's not possible, not at all. I wouldn't be surprised if it's up 50 or even 75% over an average year. But it's definitely not anywhere close to the 700% it would take to account for 300,000. 

We have 300,000 more deaths this year than we do in another average year. I think you can start there, subtract a few for excess suicides, add a few for motor deaths being down (since we're making assumptions), probably subtract some more for people who didn't get surgeries they needed, etc. Regardless I don't know that changing deaths that Covid is truly responsible from 200,000 to 225,000 to 250,000 matters much. A lot of people have died. A lot more than normal, and a lot more than would have died had it not happened.

Again, not making any statements on my stance on lockdowns. I actually think they're way too restrictive in some places. And I'm not sold that we're going to get a big winter wave still. But I think you're being intellectually dishonest and lazy here and it was worth calling out. The "almost every Covid death was on death's door anyway!" is just a bad and lazy argument.

Edited August 31, 2020 by BradInATX

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, we're not seeing 0.1% of the U.S. population commit suicide this year.  Who the fuck thinks that?  

[Eskimohorn 5633]

A lot of people are slipping on their tea

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

 

Yep. That Fishman dude (I know zero about him) presented the data in a complete horseshit manner. If you have super small numbers, relatively small changes in whole numbers can as a % basis look to be huge changes. If you have a dime and I give you a nickel on a percentage basis I have increased your coin value dramatically. In real numbers you still have jack shit.

People that do this kind of thing in the midst of CV19 are assholes, they completely know what they are doing, This is a guy who also probably uses an unnecessary secondary Y axis and/or plays with range fits on original Y axis. Fuck people that do this. They contribute to people not believing the real data that is out there.

I will get off soapbox.

[Message Board User 12395]

3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yep. That Fishman dude (I know zero about him) presented the data in a complete horseshit manner. If you have super small numbers, relatively small changes in whole numbers can as a % basis look to be huge changes. If you have a dime and I give you a nickel on a percentage basis I have increased your coin value dramatically. In real numbers you still have jack shit.

People that do this kind of thing in the midst of CV19 are assholes, they completely know what they are doing, This is a guy who also probably uses an unnecessary secondary Y axis and/or plays with range fits on original Y axis. Fuck people that do this. They contribute to people not believing the real data that is out there.

I will get off soapbox.

Kids deaths increase from 1 to 2

Team Apocalypse: DEATHS FROM COVID DOUBLE FOR CHILDREN

[BradInATX 9208]

11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Kids deaths increase from 1 to 2

Team Apocalypse: DEATHS FROM COVID DOUBLE FOR CHILDREN

You realize BrazilHorn has been extremely objective and neutral with his data and posting about Covid in general, right? I know you're always looking for a partisan fight, but he's not your huckleberry.

[Message Board User 12395]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You realize BrazilHorn has been extremely objective and neutral with his data and posting about Covid in general, right? I know you're always looking for a partisan fight, but he's not your huckleberry.

Yes I know.  That's why I pos repped him.  My post was more of a pile-on to what he said.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Message Board User

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Yes I know.  That's why I pos repped him.  My post was more of a pile-on to what he said.

My bad, mis-read.

[Guest Lobo]

3 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

A lot of people are slipping on their tea

It was an accident, Captain.  You'll feel better when we return to port. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Lobo

[Knighthawk 284]

5 hours ago, BradInATX said:

There are ~45,000 suicides per year, so that would represent an almost 700% increase, which obviously is not even remotely realistic. I did some quick searching and found that so far, there's no evidence of a spike in suicides. I'm not saying it's not possible, not at all. I wouldn't be surprised if it's up 50 or even 75% over an average year. But it's definitely not anywhere close to the 700% it would take to account for 300,000. 

We have 300,000 more deaths this year than we do in another average year. I think you can start there, subtract a few for excess suicides, add a few for motor deaths being down (since we're making assumptions), probably subtract some more for people who didn't get surgeries they needed, etc. Regardless I don't know that changing deaths that Covid is truly responsible from 200,000 to 225,000 to 250,000 matters much. A lot of people have died. A lot more than normal, and a lot more than would have died had it not happened.

Again, not making any statements on my stance on lockdowns. I actually think they're way too restrictive in some places. And I'm not sold that we're going to get a big winter wave still. But I think you're being intellectually dishonest and lazy here and it was worth calling out. The "almost every Covid death was on death's door anyway!" is just a bad and lazy argument.

I will take this bet.  No way are we going to have 300,000 more deaths this year (after accounting for population growth) for all causes.  A meteor might change this but otherwise it ain’t gonna happen.   

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Knighthawk said:

I will take this bet.  No way are we going to have 300,000 more deaths this year (after accounting for population growth) for all causes.  A meteor might change this but otherwise it ain’t gonna happen.   

The CDC already has something like 270k for their low end estimate and 350k on the high end for 2020. So that wouldn't be a very smart bet.

[Guest Lobo]

Okay, that's really fucked up.  1 in 1000 Americans are going to kill themselves in just this year alone?  That means that the average American with the average network of in-person relationships (not including distant social media connections) will know probably 2 people that kill commit suicide just in 2020?  

What's the previous high for most U.S. suicides in a calendar year?  Either gross or per capita?  

[Knighthawk 284]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The CDC already has something like 270k for their low end estimate and 350k on the high end for 2020. So that wouldn't be a very smart bet.

I don’t put a lot of stock in CDC ‘estimates’.  Neither should you. 

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/coronavirus-cases-are-on-the-rise-again-across-more-than-half-of-the-us.html

i didn’t read the whole thing, but I saw they specified the dakotas and Dakota adjacent states and ran over here to bring up sturgis again. 
 

Many of the recently growing outbreaks across the country are occurring in Midwestern states, including Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and the Dakotas.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Yep. Our turn with not as many dense metros as the NE and southern outbreaks.

[Neonmoon 38129]

They should try wearing masks 

[Sawbonz 27546]

On 8/30/2020 at 5:18 PM, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

I don’t remember you posting stupid fucking bullshit over the years. You have a head injury or something recently?

 

grand forks / e grand forks with a big covid spike btw. I expect Fargo/ Moorhead to be next if they haven’t already 

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t remember you posting stupid fucking bullshit over the years. You have a head injury or something recently?

 

grand forks / e grand forks with a big covid spike btw. I expect Fargo/ Moorhead to be next if they haven’t already 

This will be easy enough to track, via monthly deaths. We are up right now, will we be below average these next 5 months enough to account for it all?  

[Sawbonz 27546]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This will be easy enough to track, via monthly deaths. We are up right now, will we be below average these next 5 months enough to account for it all?  

So we are going to have 60K fewer deaths per month for the next 5 months? gtfoh