Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[MNLonghornFUKM 8834]

Take anything with a huge grain of Federal Holiday/Three Day Weekend salt.

Yep. Not exactly getting my hopes up but something to look at next few days

[MNLonghornFUKM 8834]

On a related note, Los Angeles is banning trick or treating this year. As a huge Halloween nerd (here in Dallas), I’ve been wondering how this might go down.

Bwahaha. Insanity.


Have your kids wear gloves, do a “switch witch” where you take their candy and chuck it or give it a few days so whatever virus on the surface can die and switch it with something you bought from the store.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Chet Steadman said:

Dang, I hadn’t even really thought about Halloween implications this year.  For the first time, my daughter will be old enough to more-or-less understand what it’s all about yet she won’t be able to experience it all.  

Same. And my toddler loves all things Halloween. His favorite episodes of his shows are all the Halloween episodes. I'm hoping the neighborhood has some sort of alternate Halloween thing. It's a pretty Republican place, though, so I'm betting they just do normal Halloween, which is probably going to be a bit dicey for my pregnant wife who will be 3rd trimester by then.

Edited September 8, 2020 by BradInATX

[Message Board User 12396]

So we've heard about all these thousands of college students testing positive...has there been a single hospitalization?  Little help here?

 

[rpspeed 1403]

1 hour ago, mdleast said:

On a related note, Los Angeles is banning trick or treating this year. As a huge Halloween nerd (here in Dallas), I’ve been wondering how this might go down.

Fireworks weren't permitted in LA  either

r

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by rpspeed

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

So we've heard about all these thousands of college students testing positive...has there been a single hospitalization?  Little help here?

 

https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/cal-u-football-player-son-former-steeler-reportedly-dies-covid-19-complications/Z6YOCOQBRZHVLHDR2FQ3IQK2VY/

don’t know if he made it back to campus or not. Football was postponed

[Message Board User 12396]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/cal-u-football-player-son-former-steeler-reportedly-dies-covid-19-complications/Z6YOCOQBRZHVLHDR2FQ3IQK2VY/

don’t know if he made it back to campus or not. Football was postponed

Well, there's at least one.  Listed at 6'3" 355 lbs, so the profile fits.

[rpspeed 1403]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

Well, there's at least one.  Listed at 6'3" 355 lbs, so the profile fits.

nm123

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by rpspeed

[Trey3216 15380]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Well, there's at least one.  Listed at 6'3" 355 lbs, so the profile fits.

And at a school that currently has a cancelled foootball season and is 100% virtual in their classes.   

[B00M 6518]

SIAP

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

So that's the third time that Sturgis bullshit has been posted. Almost like an agenda...

[Guest Lobo]

Big Scooter is behind this.  

[Trey3216 15380]

I heard they were cancelling the rodeo. 

[Message Board User 12396]

To finally put to rest this ridiculous Sturgis study.

https://mobile.twitter.com/anish_koka/status/1303537939952078849

[Armybrat 40942]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Big Scooter is behind this.  

Don’t forget Big Moped.

[BrazilHorn 6638]

10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

To finally put to rest this ridiculous Sturgis study.

https://mobile.twitter.com/anish_koka/status/1303537939952078849

This study to me is another example of "CV19 15 seconds of Internet Fame" that has taken the place of legitimate study/science. Everyone is treating scientific study like TMZ breaking a headline.

I think Sturgis should not have been allowed to happen and that the lack of mask wearing etc was just selfish and stupid, with that said how this report was created using very broad strokes of assumptions. Now national news reports (was on Today show this morning) are running with this story although to give credit to producers on Today show they did caveat that this report is unsubstantiated/validated. IMO they shouldn't have even run it as no peer reviewed journal was accepted their findings.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

IMO they shouldn't have even run it as no peer reviewed journal was accepted their findings.

We must follow the science!!!

Not that science, OUR science!!!

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

46 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I heard they were cancelling the rodeo. 

Game over.

[Viper 12112]

On 9/7/2020 at 11:51 PM, Sawbonz said:

Can this be accurate? Any of you stats guys want to give us some insight? The guy admits down thread it hasn’t been accepted for publication “yet” 

They used a similar algorithm for the BLM protests and the Trump rally in Tulsa and did not conclude either was a super spreader event

 

 

not really, it's a lot of wild assumptions

https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/

Quote

Here's what we were told: An August motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, helped spread COVID-19 to more than a quarter-million Americans, making it the root of about 20 percent of all new coronavirus cases in the U.S. last month. So said a new white paper from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, at least. And national news outlets ran with it.

"Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was 'superspreading event' that cost public health $12.2 billion," tweeted The Hill.

"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota last month may have caused 250,000 new coronavirus cases," said NBC News.

"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally represents a situation where many of the 'worst-case scenarios' for superspreading occurred simultaneously," the researchers write in the new paper, titled "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19."

Not so fast. Let's take a look at what they actually tracked and what's mere speculation.

According to South Dakota health officials, 124 new cases in the state—including one fatal case—were directly linked to the rally. Overall, COVID-19 cases linked to the Sturgis rally were reported in 11 states as of September 2, to a tune of at least 260 new cases, according to The Washington Post.

There very well may be more cases that have been linked to the early August event, but so far, that's only 260 confirmed cases—about 0.1 percent of the number the IZA paper offers.

To get to the astronomical number of cases allegedly spread because of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, the researchers analyzed "anonymized cellphone data to track the smartphone pings from non-residents and movement of those before and after the event," notes Newsweek. "The study then linked those who attended and traveled back to their home states, and compared changes in coronavirus trends after the rally's conclusion."

Essentially, the researchers assumed that new cases in areas where people went post-rally must have been spread by those rally attendees, despite there being no particular evidence that this was the case. The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, also failed to account for simultaneous happenings—like schools in South Dakota reopening, among other things—that could have contributed to coronavirus spread in some of the studied areas.

The researchers also assumed a $46,000 treatment price for each person infected to calculate the $12.2 billion public health cost of the event—but this figure would only make sense if every person had a severe case requiring hospitalization.

The results of the IZA paper "do not align with what we know," South Dakota epidemiologist Joshua Clayton said at a Tuesday news briefing.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by Viper

[clapclapclap 9000]

12 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/cal-u-football-player-son-former-steeler-reportedly-dies-covid-19-complications/Z6YOCOQBRZHVLHDR2FQ3IQK2VY/

don’t know if he made it back to campus or not. Football was postponed

California University of Pennsylvania

The world's largest university for dyslexics.

[Guest Lobo]

I thought that was Miami University of Ohio.  Or Oakland University of Michigan.  Nevermind Indiana University-Purdue University at Columbus...Indiana. 

[Viper 12112]

14 hours ago, mdleast said:

On a related note, Los Angeles is banning trick or treating this year. As a huge Halloween nerd (here in Dallas), I’ve been wondering how this might go down.

I know it doesn't really matter, but how can they ban knocking on a neighbors door? That can't be enforced can it?

Edited September 9, 2020 by Viper

[BrazilHorn 6638]

One thing to talk about also that I see as being the next big "CV19/TMZ reporting" is that of what the 2020/2021 Flu season will look like and how it will intersect and impact CV19.

Here is why I believe that this upcoming Flu season (not accounting for general 2020 "end of days" fuckery as I do believe that 2020 is just fucking crazy in general) will actually not be the issue that people are reporting it to be:

1) Massive upswing in Work From Home vs years prior. A recent Stanford Univ study cites that now upwards of 42% of all workers are currently WFH. This includes the vast majority of large Tech companies (Apple, SFDC, Google eg) that frankly become winter time petri dishes for spread of Flu due to employees feeling they have to come to work whether sick or not and being in close proximity to one another via cubicles & many shared common areas (break room, cafeterias etc)

2) Large number of children not attending in person school. Many kids are sent to school when sick/with sniffles and frankly kids in general are walking germ piles. Having these little mobile flu factories be at home in large numbers will also help reduce potential spread

3) No large scale events. Lack of large events where people are in queues to get to seats, get food etc I believe will also help mitigate spread of flu

4) General awareness of how viruses spread. People are wearing masks and washing hands with FAR greater frequency than ever before. The vast majority of people are very aware of how a virus moves about and if/when they do go out they are masked up and when they return they wash their hands etc.

5) Minimized air travel. No lungers hacking and wheezing stuck in a shared fuselage with people they are infecting. Air travel globally is down ~85% currently. This will have an impact on spread of flu.

I am not saying there won't be a flu season but I just think that some one the headlines I have seen lately "A Looming Double Threat", "What happens when Covid Collides with Flu Season" and so on aren't fully based in reality.

Looking at Australia which just completed their flu season it looks like it was a complete non-starter. With August 2019 cases at 61,000 and August 2020 cases at 107.

That's right 107. For those of you keeping score at home that's a reduction of 60,983 from the prior year.

Chile had 1,134 cases for entire season vs 20,949 in 2019. Argentina saw a 64% drop in cases YoY going from 420k cases to 151k in 2020.

Not saying the US won't find a way to fuck it up. I am just saying that the flu (based on my 5 points (not even counting potential increase in vaccine rate) above) as well as the data from the Southern Hemisphere looks like it may be a whimper vs a roar.

[TXSG8R 3362]

Our former neighbor's kid is at Texas State and stays in a dorm with 3 other guys.  One of them tested positive, so the school sent the other three home to quarantine for 2 weeks.  This seems like a dumb way to increase spread.  Quarantine the other 3 in the dorm and isolate the positive kid and keep the shit on campus/among the young healthy people.  

[Anastasis 23471]

40 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

This study to me is another example of "CV19 15 seconds of Internet Fame" that has taken the place of legitimate study/science. Everyone is treating scientific study like TMZ breaking a headline.

 

Wait a second, you mean that 20% of all US infections during this time frame can't be traced back to Sturgis?  GTFO. 

[BrazilHorn 6638]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Wait a second, you mean that 20% of all US infections during this time frame can't be traced back to Sturgis?  GTFO. 

I know. Just fucking ridiculous that this was published and then that it is being picked up by national media (even being given a caveat) is nutso.

There is enough to be worried about re: CV19 without this type a work happening.

[Anastasis 23471]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I am not saying there won't be a flu season but I just think that some one the headlines I have seen lately "A Looming Double Threat", "What happens when Covid Collides with Flu Season" and so on aren't fully based in reality.

Maybe the headline will be "COVID prevents Flu deaths!"

[Anastasis 23471]

3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I know. Just fucking ridiculous that this was published and then that it is being picked up by national media (even being given a caveat) is nutso.

There is enough to be worried about re: CV19 without this type a work happening.

The "cost" estimates are also a bit out there.  They assign an economic cost of $11k to each asymptomatic case because reasons. A ventilated case gets assigned $3MM. 

[B00M 6518]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So that's the third time that Sturgis bullshit has been posted. Almost like an agenda...

DOES SIAP NOT MEAN ANYTHING AROUND HERE ANYMORE?! 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

11 minutes ago, B00M said:

DOES SIAP NOT MEAN ANYTHING AROUND HERE ANYMORE?! 

Yeah. If it was posted 10 pages back. BUT IT'S BEEN POSTED 3 TIMES on 2 PAGES

[Brisketexan 105478]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah. If it was posted 10 pages back. BUT IT'S BEEN POSTED 3 TIMES on 2 PAGES

Exception to said rule: you are posting a pic of an attractive woman.

Problem here: ain't no such picture in any story related to Sturgis.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

50 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

4) General awareness of how viruses spread. People are wearing masks and washing hands with FAR greater frequency than ever before. The vast majority of people are very aware of how a virus moves about and if/when they do go out they are masked up and when they return they wash their hands etc.

This is the big one. Maybe it will finally sink in to people that washing your hands/distancing during flu season is smart. But we'll see (in 2 weeks?)

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Exception to said rule: you are posting a pic of an attractive woman.

Problem here: ain't no such picture in any story related to Sturgis.

[BradInATX 9208]

Sturgis shouldn't have happened, and there's no doubt in my mind that it created several thousand cases via secondary spread, but there is no chance it caused 250,000 cases and that study was incredibly poorly done. BrazilHorn made the point that there's enough to worry about without needing to embellish and use junk science. To take that further, boy-who-cried-wolf publications like this are partially responsible for all of the idiots we have running around both this thread and our country thinking that Covid is purely media hype and is no worse than the flu. Some of said idiots are regular posters in this very thread.

 

[DaysOff 7987]

Flu? There is no flu. Down over 90 percent down under. Keep washing your hands after touching your buttholes.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/australia-mild-flu-season-what-means-for-the-united-states

[Hate 20153]

I’ll still get the flu shot as I do every year, but I can’t imagine that the flu will be a huge issue this year. I do wonder what the long term impacts will be to the immune systems of people and students working from home. Once things do return to normal, will we all catch horrible colds? Will the lessons from Coronas be carried forward as far as staying home if you are sick?

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

Will the lessons from Coronas be carried forward as far as staying home if you are sick?

I really hope so. It's a pathetic indictment on American work culture that when we get sick we decide that not looking like a pussy in front of our boss is more important than our health and even worse more important than not being an asshole and getting all of our coworkers sick. Going into work and coughing and sneezing disease-ridden snot all over your coworkers is one of the most bullshit moves anyone can do and yet it's not only accepted, but in many workplaces it's expected. Ridiculous.

Edited September 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[Message Board User 12396]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

This study to me is another example of "CV19 15 seconds of Internet Fame" that has taken the place of legitimate study/science. Everyone is treating scientific study like TMZ breaking a headline.

I think Sturgis should not have been allowed to happen and that the lack of mask wearing etc was just selfish and stupid, with that said how this report was created using very broad strokes of assumptions. Now national news reports (was on Today show this morning) are running with this story although to give credit to producers on Today show they did caveat that this report is unsubstantiated/validated. IMO they shouldn't have even run it as no peer reviewed journal was accepted their findings.

You’ve gotta be kidding me - national news is running this story today?

Yet another reason to completely ignore Team Apocalypse oops I mean the media on anything Covid related.

Scott Gottlieb and Anthony “New York did it right” Fauci can also go pound sand for not immediately calling this study bullshit.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Keep washing your hands after touching your buttholes.

Before, too.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Message Board User said:

You’ve gotta be kidding me - national news is running this story today?

I'm shocked that you are shocked.

[utee94 15876]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I really hope so. It's a pathetic indictment on American work culture that when we get sick we decide that not looking like a pussy in front of our boss is more important than our health and even worse more important than not being an asshole and getting all of our coworkers sick. Going into work and coughing and sneezing disease-ridden snot all over your coworkers is one of the most bullshit moves anyone can do and yet it's not only accepted, but in many workplaces it's expected. Ridiculous.

I don't blame the workers so much in this case for not wanting to look like a pussy.

IMO it's more related to management expectations that people shouldn't be missing work unless they're in the hospital.  That's a long-held holdover from the American culture of dedication and work ethic, so I don't really see it going away in the near future.  Long term, I think this is one area where the millennials are going to help move the culture in a positive direction, since they more strongly desire to work-from-anywhere and won't have the butts-in-seats expectations of current management, as they eventually move into those leadership roles themselves.

Just my speculation of course.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't blame the workers so much in this case for not wanting to look like a pussy.

IMO it's more related to management expectations that people shouldn't be missing work unless they're in the hospital.  That's a long-held holdover from the American culture of dedication and work ethic, so I don't really see it going away in the near future.  Long term, I think this is one area where the millennials are going to help move the culture in a positive direction, since they more strongly desire to work-from-anywhere and won't have the butts-in-seats expectations of current management, as they eventually move into those leadership roles themselves.

Just my speculation of course.

 

 

Nope, definitely not the workers' fault - it's workplace culture and the fact that work-life balance is actively discouraged by management and shareholders. Completely agree with what you said about millennials too. Problem is they only seem to be fixing it in industries where the talent supply holds the cards (tech, healthcare, etc.)

[Message Board User 12396]

20 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm shocked that you are shocked.

You’re right of course.
 

And to be honest much of my disdain for the media and their panic porn stems from self-recrimination as a few months ago I did believe much of what Fauci and the media said about Covid.  In a way I’m mad at myself for ever believing these partisan hacks and fear-mongers.   There was even a time not too long ago I thought about making my kids do all virtual schooling.
 

But those days are done.  If Lester Holt tells me this afternoon that the sun sets in the west I wouldn’t believe him.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Message Board User

[DaysOff 7987]

If you're sick, stay home.

That's one of the five pillars of mitigation that keeps getting drilled into our heads. We're supposed to abandon that once the pandemic is over? Because everytime someone has the cold-like symptoms people will look sideways at you for spreading covid.

[Pato del Muerto 52663]

32 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Flu? There is no flu. Down over 90 percent down under. Keep washing your hands after touching your buttholes.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/australia-mild-flu-season-what-means-for-the-united-states

Isn’t Australia in lockdown?  Whereas we are going to school, and arguing at every Walgreens that we have a right to enter without a mask. 

[B00M 6518]

13 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

You’re right of course.
 

And to be honest much of my disdain for the media and their panic porn stems from self-recrimination as a few months ago I did believe much of what Fauci and the media said about Covid.  In a way I’m mad at myself for ever believing these partisan hacks and fear-mongers.   There was even a time not too long ago I thought about making my kids do all virtual schooling.
 

When did Fauci fear monger in a sensational or irresponsible way? Just wondering why you'd lump him in with click driven media.

[Surly Bevo 25255]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I really hope so. It's a pathetic indictment on American work culture that when we get sick we decide that not looking like a pussy in front of our boss is more important than our health and even worse more important than not being an asshole and getting all of our coworkers sick. Going into work and coughing and sneezing disease-ridden snot all over your coworkers is one of the most bullshit moves anyone can do and yet it's not only accepted, but in many workplaces it's expected. Ridiculous.

How dare you infringe on my god given right to infringe on your god given right.  

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

2 hours ago, Viper said:

I know it doesn't really matter, but how can they ban knocking on a neighbors door? That can't be enforced can it?

They take all your candy

[Captainant 27876]

Man, it sure would be a kick in the nuts to learn that those in charge knew and admitted how dangerous COVID is, only to turn around a couple weeks later to tell the public if was nothing to worry about. 

There may have been fewer dumbasses saying it was a hoax if it weren't for that. Oh well, what's a couple hundred thousand dead Americans anyways? The economy is great if you ignore the record high unemployment and evictions