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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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dcar00

dcar00 14158

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

There's also a politics board for you to go cry about the liberal media nonstop on. Let's talk about Covid on the Covid thread.

we are talking about the media reporting on covid in the covid thread.  quit crying about media covid discussions there's no crying in covidball.  if you take your whiny ass to the covid medical thread you will be in your safe space.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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Posted
Scary thought: If our states have this much trouble reporting covid stats, what else have they been completely fucking up statistics wise?

Had this same thought. Plus there’s probably 50 different ways to explain what’s a case, how to contact trace, what’s a covid death, hospitalization, positive %, quality of PCR & antibody tests.
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aggie08

aggie08 21492

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5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Careful Hugo. Don’t let the mob see this guy has a clear bias according to his tweets and retweets. I’m sure they’ll call you out, call you mean names and rake you over the coals for it. Right Js1?

Right, because no one ever calls out Hugo, tires of his bullshit, or tells him to get lost. Oh wait...

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dcar00

dcar00 14158

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

The only one whining about shit is you, ya gaping pussy.

ha.  all brad does is whine.  you on the other hand are the town drunk...keep  going you bright red vaginal swab

Edited by blacklab
vacation for shit posting
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Homercles

Homercles 10205

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8 hours ago, markstanco said:

My 78 year old father was tested positive. He is 5 9 and about 185. Felt bad for about 18 hours per him. He continued his 1 mile walks during and feels great.

Politics continue on.

What about that is political?  Some people have no symptoms, some are mild, some die in an ICU...it’s well documented this disease behaves erratically.  Good on your dad but that doesn’t prove shit.  

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

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19 hours ago, dcar00 said:

countries will require it to be documented on your passport I am sure.

I doubt countries will accept a stamp in your passport as proof.  They will probably require an antibody test upon entry, or some kind of registration number that can be looked up in a shared medical database to prove which vaccine you got, how long ago, etc. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14158

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2 hours ago, TXSG8R said:

I doubt countries will accept a stamp in your passport as proof.  They will probably require an antibody test upon entry, or some kind of registration number that can be looked up in a shared medical database to prove which vaccine you got, how long ago, etc. 

agree that some countries could require a test.  I suppose I wouldn't go to those countries.

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Captainant

Captainant 27638

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Alright, which one of you chucklefucks was this?

Quote

Brett Bachtle
Created: September 17, 2020 06:44 PM

(ABC 6 News) - An Austin man, whose heritage is Chinese, claims he's possibly the victim of a hate crime after the words 'China virus' were burned into his front lawn.

David Chao believes the hate speech was spelled out with some type of fertilizer.

"It's just an awful thing to see, to experience, let alone the issue that my heritage is Chinese. I'm not full Chinese. There are some people who know it, but they wouldn't know that," said Chao. "It's dehumanizing, demeaning."

 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6252

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Very interesting discussion piece in BMJ (top 5 medical journal) on T-cell immunity to covid.  Bottom line: it's quite possible that many places have already achieved "herd immunity" because a substantial portion of the population has T-cell protection from the virus, possibly due to exposure to other coronaviruses (i.e., colds). This protection does not manifest via the production of antibodies, so it's not picked up by our serological (i.e., blood) antibody tests.

This t-cell research is not new, but what's new about this piece is it involves careful discussion by scientists, not politicians or twitter pundits.  It's definitely worth a read.  Some highlights:

Quote

Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, serological surveys since the peak indicate that at most only around a fifth of people have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: 23% in New York, 18% in London, 11% in Madrid.123 Among the general population the numbers are substantially lower, with many national surveys reporting in single digits.

With public health responses around the world predicated on the assumption that the virus entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity before the pandemic,4 serosurvey data are leading many to conclude that the virus has, as Mike Ryan, WHO’s head of emergencies, put it, “a long way to burn.”

Yet a stream of studies that have documented SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in people without exposure to the virus are raising questions about just how new the pandemic virus really is, with many implications.

Quote

Researchers are also confident that they have made solid inroads into ascertaining the origins of the immune responses. “Our hypothesis, of course, was that it’s so called ‘common cold’ coronaviruses, because they’re closely related,” said Daniela Weiskopf, senior author of a paper in Science that confirmed this hypothesis.18 “We have really shown that this is a true immune memory and it is derived in part from common cold viruses.” Separately, researchers in Singapore came to similar conclusions about the role of common cold coronaviruses but noted that some of the T cell reactivity may also come from other unknown coronaviruses, even of animal origin.

Quote

But memory T cells are known for their ability to affect the clinical severity and susceptibility to future infection,25 and the T cell studies documenting pre-existing reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in 20-50% of people suggest that antibodies are not the full story.

“Maybe we were a little naive to take measurements such as serology testing to look at how many people were infected with the virus,” the Karolinska Institute immunologist Marcus Buggert told The BMJ. “Maybe there is more immunity out there.”

Buggert’s home country has been at the forefront of the herd immunity debate, with Sweden’s light touch strategy against the virus resulting in much scrutiny and scepticism.26 The epidemic in Sweden does seem to be declining, Buggert said in August. “We have much fewer cases right now. We have around 50 people hospitalised with covid-19 in a city of two million people.” At the peak of the epidemic there were thousands of cases. Something must have happened, said Buggert, particularly considering that social distancing was “always poorly followed, and it’s only become worse.”

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Understanding this “something” is a core question for Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford University epidemiologist who developed a way to calculate herd immunity thresholds that incorporates a variable for pre-existing innate resistance and cross protection.24 Her group argues that herd immunity thresholds “may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus.”

“The conventional wisdom is that lockdown occurred as the epidemic curve was rising,” Gupta explained. “So once you remove lockdown that curve should continue to rise.” But that is not happening in places like New York, London, and Stockholm. The question is why.

“If it were the case that in London the disease hadn’t disseminated too widely, and only 15% have experienced the virus [as serology tests indicate] . . . under those circumstances, if you lift lockdown, you should see an immediate and commensurate increase in cases, as we have observed in many other settings,” Gupta told The BMJ, “But that hasn’t happened. That is just a fact. The question is why.”

Possible answers are many, she says. One is that social distancing is in place, and people are keeping the spread down. Another possibility is that a lot of people are immune because of T cell responses or something else. “Whatever it is,” Gupta added, “if there is a significant fraction of the population that is not permissive to the infection, then that all makes sense, given how infectious SARS-CoV-2 is.”

Quote

But they were all quick to note that this is speculation. Formally, the clinical implications of the pre-existing T cell reactivity remain an open question. “People say you don’t have proof, and they’re right,” says Buggert, adding that the historical blood donor specimens in his study were all anonymised, precluding longitudinal follow-up.

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Stannis said:

I've been holding out hope on the lower immunity threshold, but it's not a great look that Spain and France are blowing up worse than before.  

Probably because of the politics of their Governors and Mayors /noCR 

(edit:  Dammit, just finding out Spain is not a State nor a City).  

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dcar00

dcar00 14158

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6 minutes ago, Stannis said:

I've been holding out hope on the lower immunity threshold, but it's not a great look that Spain and France are blowing up worse than before.  

agreed.  I will be looking at Sweden as well to see if they start to trend back up.  IMO, the US did a middle of the road between Sweden action and Spain/France action.

Italy is seeing a second rise but it seems to be attenuated compared to Spain/France.  Germany is attenuated 2nd rise as well.

It really all depends on who is getting infected.  under 40 good.  over 40 not so good.  over 60 BAD

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Catpfish

Catpfish 618

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9 minutes ago, Stannis said:

Not sure.  I read this morning that many of the cases in France are among younger people, like here.  So, hopefully hospitalizations aren't following cases.

This is from a CNBC story, so take it for what it's worth

 

Quote

“There are some worrying trends that we’re starting to see,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the World Health Organization’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said Wednesday. “What is really worrying I think for us is that we’re not only seeing an increase in the case numbers, but we’re seeing an increase in the hospitalizations. We’re seeing increases in ICUs.”

She said several European countries are reporting spikes in cases, including France, Spain, Georgia, Montenegro and the Ukraine. She added that some states in the U.S. are also reporting worrying rises just as we approach the flu season, which could overwhelm the health system.

Intensive care units in hospitals in some parts of France are now nearing capacity, Van Kerkhove said Friday on CNN, adding that hospitalizations are doubling roughly every eight days in the United Kingdom.

“We haven’t even started to hit the flu season yet so we’re worried that these increasing numbers of hospitalization and ICU are really going to overburden an already burdened system,” she said on CNN. 

 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

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2 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

“What is really worrying I think for us is that we’re not only seeing an increase in the case numbers, but we’re seeing an increase in the hospitalizations. We’re seeing increases in ICUs.”

These kinds of stories frustrate the shit out of me. They show the data for case increase  (More than half of European countries have reported a greater-than-10% increase in cases in the past two weeks) but neglect to provide the data for hospitalizations and use antidotes. What does "increases in ICU" mean? 1 more case? 100 more cases? 1,000 more cases? 

 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24908

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm really hoping the existing T-Cell immunity thing is true because if it is, us parents of day-care kids are going to dominate Covid.

Frankly parents of any school aged kids, teachers also. There as always......will be exceptions.

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utee94

utee94 15808

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Stannis said:

I've been holding out hope on the lower immunity threshold, but it's not a great look that Spain and France are blowing up worse than before.  

One view, is that they locked down too early and too hard, and didn't expose enough of their population the first time.  The area under the curve is going to stay the same, so herd immunity is going to take the same number of infections to be reached, whether it develops from antibodies, some % of the population with existing T-cell immunity, or most likely a combination of both of the above.  Lockdowns  before that number of infections is reached, only serves to push those curves to the right along the x-axis, but it doesn't reduce or the total number of infections it's going to take, to reach HI.

That doesn't mean there was never any benefit to lockdowns, of course.  The originally stated goal, of flattening the curve to prevent hospital overun, for the most part was achieved.  But expecting this virus to simply go away, is unrealistic.  And what we're seeing across Europe is potentially supporting evidence for the "area under the curve" hypothesis.

Edited by utee94
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89629

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10 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

My lifetime of hanging out in shitty bars and nasty restaurants has prepared me for this moment!

And my childhood of going home after school and locking the door and sitting on the couch watching TV until my parents got home has also prepared me.   And my childhood hits are now on DVD and popular such my kid, so we’ve been good for most of this year.   Well, the G I Joe cartoons aged rather poorly.

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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5630

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agreed.  I will be looking at Sweden as well to see if they start to trend back up.  IMO, the US did a middle of the road between Sweden action and Spain/France action.
Italy is seeing a second rise but it seems to be attenuated compared to Spain/France.  Germany is attenuated 2nd rise as well.
It really all depends on who is getting infected.  under 40 good.  over 40 not so good.  over 60 BAD

Texas summer outbreak started with the under 30 crowd. That translated to few initial hospitalizations but then quickly rose as the 20-year olds work, mingle, and live with other generations. And do so with no fucks given as they are frequently asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

Hospitalizations is a good indicator of impact, but by the time you can identify a trend its probably too late.

Cases is moving all over the place. IMO, they can be divided into 3 types of statistical comparison:

Screening - like UT students getting into a football game. Or workplace tests.

Reactive - People think they need a test and get it checked out. If this rises and positivity rises, thats an issue. Texas wet the bed on processing these in a timely basis when numbers were higher, as did others.

Random tests - Various health agencies been doing this at various times.

Combining the three of these types of cases is largely worthless. But reactive and random are more valid indicators of where we’re at.
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

^ pos rep  to Cheese. 

I always knew my love of shithole bars and greasy spoons would come back to benefit me.  It's those fucking "I like to eat at Applebee's and Cheesecake Factory when traveling because it's clean and predictable and I can see how theirs stacks up against the one back home" morons that need to worry!  Your 42-page menu won't save your ass when the T-cell counts are down!  

What were we talking about?  Oh yeah, our elementary school made it nine days of in-person learning before reporting a positive case.  Not bad, considering most schools didn't make it nine hours.  So of course we got the email about it last night, remote learning cancelled today because of all-day staff meetings so they can figure out what the fuck they're gonna do going forward.  And of course it was a Kindergartner in my daughter's class.  

So to combat that, I'm taking my daughter to Deep Eddy bar later today to toughen her up.  Gonna grab a pool burger while we're there.  

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Js1

Js1 85291

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Posted
19 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Careful Hugo. Don’t let the mob see this guy has a clear bias according to his tweets and retweets. I’m sure they’ll call you out, call you mean names and rake you over the coals for it. Right Js1?

keep my name out of your mouth, weirdo 

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14158

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49 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:


Texas summer outbreak started with the under 30 crowd. That translated to few initial hospitalizations but then quickly rose as the 20-year olds work, mingle, and live with other generations. And do so with no fucks given as they are frequently asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

Hospitalizations is a good indicator of impact, but by the time you can identify a trend its probably too late.

Cases is moving all over the place. IMO, they can be divided into 3 types of statistical comparison:

Screening - like UT students getting into a football game. Or workplace tests.

Reactive - People think they need a test and get it checked out. If this rises and positivity rises, thats an issue. Texas wet the bed on processing these in a timely basis when numbers were higher, as did others.

Random tests - Various health agencies been doing this at various times.

Combining the three of these types of cases is largely worthless. But reactive and random are more valid indicators of where we’re at.

that would be interesting.  is there a chart that shows cases by age group by day since March for Texas?

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

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Posted
1 hour ago, utee94 said:

But expecting this virus to simply go away, is unrealistic.

I don’t think anyone expected the virus to go away. Wait, let me clarify, I don’t think any medical doctors expected the virus to go away. The initial lockdown was to flatten the curve, true, but one could argue that if people actually followed the guidelines of wearing a mask, social distancing, and washing hands, we could of flattened the curve without a hard lockdown. I think the hard lockdown was due to the spread being so severe, we needed a hard stop to halt the spread. 

I think the issue, and of course we learned this early, is that you can’t just open back up, and I think Europe is learning that lesson now. Once you open the bars, this shit starts to spread. If people continue to wear mask and social distance as much as possible, we can open a lot of things, but bars is a no go. 

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