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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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C-Man

C-Man 27293

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I would submit that this virus could have been more deadly than the Spanish Flu was 100 years ago if not for the advances in modern medicine & treatment, plus the sheer volume of research capacity.

I have no doubt in my mind if not for modern advances in medicine, treatment and sanitization the COVID-19 outbreak could've been just as bad -- or worse -- than the the Spanish Flu.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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FondrenRoad

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Posted
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1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

I would submit that this virus could have been more deadly than the Spanish Flu was 100 years ago if not for the advances in modern medicine & treatment, plus the sheer volume of research capacity.

Maybe.  A significant number of covid hospital recoveries would have died if we were living in the Spanish Flu era.  But also, the Spanish Flu was far more deadly for healthy young and middle aged adults than covid seems to be, and this demographic largely hasn't been hospitalized or treated when it gets covid.  But there are also a lot of other variables.  Americans are more obese than we used to be, but we are also breathing cleaner air, so maybe some of the only "slightly ill" people with CV would have also been hospitalized if they had grown up breathing early 1900s industrial air pollution.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236

NYC's excess mortality during the SF and CV outbreaks are comparable.  However, CV did hit unprepared vulnerable demographics particularly hard in NYC.  And there also hasn't been a CV second wave in NYC yet.  Hopefully, there isn't one.  In addition to better medicine, social distancing and quarantine guidelines are better understood.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Looking out at our learning pod, I'm thinking about the Kindergarten class in 1919-1920.  I'm guessing that school year, like this one, was a complete shitshow.  The 1918 Influenza was still raging (it killed more in '19 than it did in '18 thanks to a massive second wave).  Obviously remote learning was not an option in those days.  Few women in the workforce as well.  My guess is it probably just looked like what we would think of as asynchronous home schooling with mom at home or on the farm.  And I know we worry, a lot, as parents about what this disruptive school-year will mean for our children down the road.  

And I think of a 5 year old in 1919 whose early education gets off to a very rocky start.  They will be called upon, as teenagers, to help the United States weather its worst financial period in its history.  Many of them will be forced to learn new trades immediately to keep the United States economy afloat.  Then when their ages hit the mid-20's, what we think of millennials today, the boys of that Kindergarten class will take off to the four corners of the Earth to fight a massive three-front war against facism and evil, many of them serving in leadership roles in the Armed Forces.  The girls of that class will completely retool every inch of American infrastructure and manufacturing to create the largest War Machine the world,, will ever know.  And the kids in that class not serving or building, will keep a country of 140 million people humming along almost all by themselves.  Then after the war, many of them will take advantage of college, becoming the first truly well-educated generation in American history.  Those kindergartners will create a massive middle class and lead the United States into an unparalleled era of economic opportunity, learning, and greatness.

"The Greatest Generation" that did all that...they started out with a shitty year of homebound Kindergarten and still changed the fate of our nation for the better.  This school year sucks, But I gotta give our children credit for their resiliency and their dedication to the job ahead.  It's the fucking adults acting like children that is draining my hope for our future.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105478

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

"The Greatest Generation" that did all that...they started out with a shitty year of homebound Kindergarten and still changed the fate of our nation for the better.  This school year sucks, But I gotta give our children credit for their resiliency and their dedication to the job ahead.  It's the fucking adults acting like children that is draining my hope for our future.  

I do like this thought, and have had it myself.  We've even had a similar conversation with our kids (who are high school and early college).  They are resilient, and they are going to prove it.  Whether they wanted to be or not, they are now the "COVID generation."  They have a shared experience in dealing with plans and circumstances going to shit, and finding a way to work through it.  They see, firsthand, the value of acting like a community (and the perils of acting like entirely selfish bastards).  They will understand balance, and being willing to shift tactics and strategies as circumstances require.

Yes, they're kids right now.  Yes, some of them are brainless, shallow, and selfish (or are at least acting that way, as you'd expect from teenagers and such).  But they are learning a lot by this process.  And when compared with the generation currently in charge.....yeah, they're going to be a huge improvement.  I don't think they can HELP but be better.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5533

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22 hours ago, Somnio said:

Yes, as that means roughly 1 person dies out of every 750 whom have contracted Covid-19.  That seems.... not very bad.

I am aware death rate is not the only factor to examine, but it may be time to realize we may have overreacted just a bit.

We are nearly a year into this pandemic now, and it seems clear to me this is not anything near as terrible as the Spanish Flu, nor the Black Death.

Maybe it really is just a new, slightly worse strain of the common cold?

 

QUICK! DUCK!!!!

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6638

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47 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

For our California readers who may want to know when your county may reopen, here's a scorecard:

 

CA is off the rails. You will not fix income inequality which will be major driver of CV19 mortality (Rarely see wealthy severely obese people).

This is what happens when you try and smash a clear political agenda with CV19 reopening plans. The unintended consequences of this approach will be crazy to watch.

 

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21904

Posted
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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

CA is off the rails. You will not fix income inequality which will be major driver of CV19 mortality (Rarely see wealthy severely obese people).

This is what happens when you try and smash a clear political agenda with CV19 reopening plans. The unintended consequences of this approach will be crazy to watch.

 

I just drilled down on some of that mapping.  The healthy to less healthy areas are directly income related.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6638

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10 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I just drilled down on some of that mapping.  The healthy to less healthy areas are directly income related.  

For sure. Head out towards Riverside County vs Orange County. I am all for addressing food deserts and the overall obesity epidemic in the US. I am not sure that trying to shoehorn those programs into a CV19 response is the time to do it.

The "demise" of CA has been long prophesied but now that large tech companies are figuring out that folks can work remotely at scale and that large corp campuses may not be as necessary. ~45% of Bay Area workers have said they will GTFO and go somewhere else (and companies have said "great" and are looking forward to COLA adjustments for their P&Ls)

I know a number of folks from CA that are moving to Texas (among other places) and I can easily see it just getting worse for CA especially with the new wealth tax. People in CA are hearing from the friends in TX that their kids are playing in baseball tournaments, going to school in person in many cases, playing football etc and meanwhile kids in CA are dealing with this shutdown approach that is not about "flattening the curve" at all.

I am curious if this is the thing that finally drives CA into truly shitty shape. They pulled the lever for Pot legalization after the 08/09 housing crisis, I don't know what budget levers they have truly left to pull.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6638

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

"California is dying and people are fleeing," take 27,504, talk not going away. 

I know and I had reservations in regards to my post above as it has been done a million times. A retro tax increase being applied (as it is now), the tremendously high cost of living and just overall off the rails public health policies make it feel different.

People used to be willing to pay the "weather" tax to live in CA. I am just wondering if there is a tipping point where people start to say "fuck it" at scale.

Will be interesting to see.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21904

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7 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I know and I had reservations in regards to my post above as it has been done a million times. A retro tax increase being applied (as it is now), the tremendously high cost of living and just overall off the rails public health policies make it feel different.

People used to be willing to pay the "weather" tax to live in CA. I am just wondering if there is a tipping point where people start to say "fuck it" at scale.

Will be interesting to see.

They are saying "fuck it."  But it seems enough people keep saying "let's move to California" to balance it out.  Too lazy to research the demographic flows, though.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6638

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1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

They are saying "fuck it."  But it seems enough people keep saying "let's move to California" to balance it out.  Too lazy to research the demographic flows, though.

I was looking house vs condo sales in SF. Looks like condo supply through the roof. House supply still on side of sellers. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14435

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I know and I had reservations in regards to my post above as it has been done a million times. A retro tax increase being applied (as it is now), the tremendously high cost of living and just overall off the rails public health policies make it feel different.

People used to be willing to pay the "weather" tax to live in CA. I am just wondering if there is a tipping point where people start to say "fuck it" at scale.

Will be interesting to see.

there is s ton of money in Cali.  they will just keep taxing it.  its going to be fine. if I lived there now I'd stay there.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89877

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

there is s ton of money in Cali.  they will just keep taxing it.  its going to be fine. if I lived there now I'd stay there.

You'd think with all of the wildfires and the cost-of-living, people would be bailing in droves and the place would be noticeably emptying out, but nope, plenty willing to move there.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105478

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd think with all of the wildfires and the cost-of-living, people would be bailing in droves and the place would be noticeably emptying out, but nope, plenty willing to move there.

Well, yeah.....people go where the jobs are, and there's about to be a metric shitton of "forest-raking" jobs for the taking.

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dcar00

dcar00 14435

Posted
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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd think with all of the wildfires and the cost-of-living, people would be bailing in droves and the place would be noticeably emptying out, but nope, plenty willing to move there.

as long as salaries go up with cost of living and they keep riding the tech boom they'll be fine.  they will be looking for a lot of federal money though.

the wildfires are somewhat like flood/hurricane.  until it actually hits you its someone else's issue and eventually there is an expectation that they end.  how many total people have lost homes due to wildfire compared to the total population of California?

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52663

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2 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

They are saying "fuck it."  But it seems enough people keep saying "let's move to California" to balance it out.  Too lazy to research the demographic flows, though.

That’s the part that confuses me. It’s one thing to deal with the cost of living when you have been there your whole life, or moved and bought a home 20 or 10 years ago. But who can afford to move there now?

i probably thought the same thing 10 years ago though so what do I know. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89877

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Fucking A.  Didn't think we were still dealing with hospitals being overrun.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-milwaukee-wisconsin-archive-61856a69ec6e9e6f032bb121b6d58a5d

Quote

Wisconsin health officials announced Wednesday that a field hospital will open next week at the state fairgrounds near Milwaukee as a surge in COVID-19 cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals.

Wisconsin has become a hot spot for the disease over the last month, ranking third nationwide this week in new cases per capita over the last two weeks. Health experts have attributed the spike to the reopening of colleges and K-12 schools as well as general fatigue over wearing masks and socially distancing.

Quote

State Department of Health Services Secretary Andrea Palm told reporters during a video conference that the facility will open on Oct. 14.

“We hoped this day wouldn’t come, but unfortunately, Wisconsin is in a much different, more dire place today and our healthcare systems are beginning to become overwhelmed by the surge of COVID-19 cases,” Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said in a statement. “This alternative care facility will take some of the pressure off our healthcare facilities while expanding the continuum of care for folks who have COVID-19.”

Quote

Only 16% of the state’s 11,452 hospital beds were available as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the DHS. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had grown to 853, it’s highest during the pandemic according to the COVID Tracking Project, with 216 in intensive care.

I would have thought they had more than 11,452 hospital beds in the state as well.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21904

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s the part that confuses me. It’s one thing to deal with the cost of living when you have been there your whole life, or moved and bought a home 20 or 10 years ago. But who can afford to move there now?

i probably thought the same thing 10 years ago though so what do I know. 

How else you gonna become a movie star?

Edited by Sbbruin
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dcar00

dcar00 14435

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fucking A.  Didn't think we were still dealing with hospitals being overrun.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-milwaukee-wisconsin-archive-61856a69ec6e9e6f032bb121b6d58a5d

I would have thought they had more than 11,452 hospital beds in the state as well.

I haven't been tracking this for Texas but is 8% of total beds being Covid a lot? a little? avg?

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