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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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8 minutes ago, Somnio said:

99% of confirmed cases are classified as "Mild".

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Screenshot_20201025-204756_Chrome.jpg

And only ~10% of actual Covid-19 cases are confirmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So if 400 million plus people around the globe have or have had Covid-19, and ~1.2 million people have died from it, what would that put the mortality rate at?

0.3% is the answer if my math is correct.

In two more weeks it's going to be bodies in trees though, right?!?

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justhookit

justhookit 4,206

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1 hour ago, Somnio said:

And only ~10% of actual Covid-19 cases are confirmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So if 400 million plus people around the globe have or have had Covid-19, and ~1.2 million people have died from it, what would that put the mortality rate at?

0.3% is the answer if my math is correct.

In two more weeks it's going to be bodies in trees though, right?!?

Well as long as we only kill .3% of the population. They probably needed to die anyway. Good job.

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aggie08

aggie08 21,800

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10 hours ago, Somnio said:

In two more weeks it's going to be bodies in trees though, right?!?

Smart people make educated guesses, usually erring on the side of caution, based on limited data, then amend those positions when more data becomes available.

Stupid people think changing your opinion on something over time is a sign of incompetence/weakness, and love to play the "gotcha" game of holding people's feet to the fire when they alter from their initial position.

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6,337

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10 hours ago, Somnio said:

And only ~10% of actual Covid-19 cases are confirmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

So if 400 million plus people around the globe have or have had Covid-19, and ~1.2 million people have died from it, what would that put the mortality rate at?

0.3% is the answer if my math is correct.

In two more weeks it's going to be bodies in trees though, right?!?

You should call up the hospital admin staff in El Paso, Salt Lake City and across Idaho where they are already running out of beds and let them know it's only a .3 death rate and there is nothing to worry about.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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15 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Smart people make educated guesses, usually erring on the side of caution, based on limited data, then amend those positions when more data becomes available.

Stupid people think changing your opinion on something over time is a sign of incompetence/weakness, and love to play the "gotcha" game of holding people's feet to the fire when they alter from their initial position.

this by far the most intelligent thing I've ever read from an Aggie  ;)   (pos rep) 

I can sorta see (though I don't agree) with giving people shit for altering their opinions or beliefs when it comes to more subjective stuff like politics, economics, or even religion.  But when it comes to shit like maths or medicine, if you're not onboarding more data and changing your approach, I want nothing to do with you.  

I'd be morbidly curious to learn what kind of doctors some of you fucking idiots visit.  

"Well, Mr. Old School Texas Badass...I've been reviewing your chart.  Now, given some new information from public health officials, as well as some peer-reviewed studies...I have some thoughts on a better course of action for you and your family...but fuck it, I ain't no pussy...amirite!??!??!  Let's stick with the plan from when you were ten years younger.  And a woman."  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,720

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Article from HMS epidemiologist regarding mask wearing messaging...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/dudes-who-wont-wear-masks/613375/

The Dudes Who Won’t Wear Masks

Face coverings are a powerful tool, but health authorities can’t simply ignore the reasons some people refuse to use them.

JUNE 23, 2020

Julia Marcus

Epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School

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aggie08

aggie08 21,800

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11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Article from HMS epidemiologist regarding mask wearing messaging...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/dudes-who-wont-wear-masks/613375/

The Dudes Who Won’t Wear Masks

Face coverings are a powerful tool, but health authorities can’t simply ignore the reasons some people refuse to use them.

JUNE 23, 2020

Julia Marcus

Epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School

The fact that mask wearing has become political is so fucking infuriating. Maybe, just maybe, if this wasn't an election year, it would be a little easier to convince people to be decent human beings and stewards of the human race.

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13 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

The fact that mask wearing has become political is so fucking infuriating. Maybe, just maybe, if this wasn't an election year, it would be a little easier to convince people to be decent human beings and stewards of the human race.

Wearing the masks don't bother me.  I've been neck deep working in the public from Day 1 of this pandemic. Any time I am in public, the mask is on. I practice social distancing as much as can be achieved.   For an anti-social motherfucker like myself, some of the measures are most definitely wins.

I disagree with the closing of businesses and some of the other massive inconsistencies, such as restaurants being OK, but if I go to a place just for a beer...nah, dawg, Covid knows it can getcha there...   "Covid knows how many people are in the store, and whether or not it is a WalMart..."

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3,659

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23 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I wish we could brand anti-mask people with some sort of 6-month tattoo

 

that way, when they show up to the hospital, they get pushed right back out to the street

I worry we’re going to get to a reverse scarlet letter thing with survivors.  If you had it and survived, you get this mark, and for 6 months you have lower insurance, don’t have to wear masks, are more attractive as a job candidate, etc.  

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Guest Lobo

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8 minutes ago, slorch said:

fear.jpg

You do realize there's something in the middle?  Somewhere between a life filled with terror and a life filled with wonton disregard for your neighbor.  

There's a reason we wear seatbelts, lock up our guns, and don't shit into upstream freshwater.  We came this far as a species because it feels good not to fuck over your fellow man.  You can be cautious and still have a fulfilling life.  I know for a fact that my Covid-19 lifestyle is better than 95% of Covid-deniers regular lifestyle.  People that disagree with us aren't living in fear, that's a bizarre life lesson.  

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

You do realize there's something in the middle?  Somewhere between a life filled with terror and a life filled with wonton disregard for your neighbor.  

There's a reason we wear seatbelts, lock our guns, and don't shit into upstream freshwater.  We came this far as a species because it feels good not to fuck over your fellow man.

Yep.

Be diligent...not fucking crazy.

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Guest Lobo

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2 minutes ago, slorch said:

Yep.

Be diligent...not fucking crazy.

Oh, I'm crazy...but not because of Covid-19  ;) 

I've literally made part of my living being the due diligence/"yeah...but" guy.  This pandemic is no different to me.  De-risk the shit out of it within the sphere we control (can't control society, but i can control my organization's actions---in this case that org. is my family)...limit our exposure to organizations that don't share our value set.  Plan for the worst, hope for the best, deploy resources when things look clear, hold back when things get muddied again.  Steer clear of anybody that doesn't understand the risk profile.  

Worrying about the third wave metrics that are becoming as apparent as the Halloween Full Moon doesn't make one fucking crazy.  False gods, unproven drugs, and 5:1 online flash sales...that makes one fucking crazy.  

That said, let's party when this thing is over with. 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3,659

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One thing I think about a lot is the fact that people lump all relatively unlikely things into one “ain’t gonna happen” bucket.  For example, on a per flight basis it is much more likely you will be struck by lightning than die in a plane crash (about 60 times depending on where you live). But which do people worry about more?  Or this one- year percentage of deaths in a car accident in a given year or a mass shooting are about the same (around 1 in 11,000). 
 
So as I read it, the estimated likelihood of death if you catch COVID is between 1in 200 and 1 in 300 across the whole population.  That’s a shit ton more likely than dying in a car accident or mass shooting (1 in 11,000), dying of food poisoning (1 in 100,000), having your house burn down (1 in 3,000), or being killed by a tornado (1 in 5 million).  
 

Its in the range of audits for people who make over $500k ( 1 in 200) and less likely than being some level of functionality ambidextrous (1 in 100). 

But most folks who don’t wear masks would tell you that they’re much more concerned about car wrecks, crazed school gunmen, listeria in their ice cream, or being audited.  

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aggie08

aggie08 21,800

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13 minutes ago, slorch said:

I disagree with the closing of businesses and some of the other massive inconsistencies, such as restaurants being OK, but if I go to a place just for a beer...nah, dawg, Covid knows it can getcha there... 

I'd agree that there's some seemingly arbitrary randomness to it all (lack of guidance at a Federal level certainly doesn't help), but you can at least see the logic of how they got there. Food is a necessity, beer isn't. People at bars/breweries tend to move around, mingle, and crowd together. Sit down restaurants are much easier to manage.

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DaysOff

DaysOff 8,209

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Article from HMS epidemiologist regarding mask wearing messaging...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/dudes-who-wont-wear-masks/613375/
The Dudes Who Won’t Wear Masks
Face coverings are a powerful tool, but health authorities can’t simply ignore the reasons some people refuse to use them.
JUNE 23, 2020
Julia Marcus
Epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School

Most people are ugly as shit. Just wear a face covering people.
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38,130

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34 minutes ago, slorch said:

Wearing the masks don't bother me.  I've been neck deep working in the public from Day 1 of this pandemic. Any time I am in public, the mask is on. I practice social distancing as much as can be achieved.   For an anti-social motherfucker like myself, some of the measures are most definitely wins.

I disagree with the closing of businesses and some of the other massive inconsistencies, such as restaurants being OK, but if I go to a place just for a beer...nah, dawg, Covid knows it can getcha there...   "Covid knows how many people are in the store, and whether or not it is a WalMart..."

This is not an inconsistency. Just because both have four walls and serve consumable items doesn't make them identical. It takes a little more thought. One has patrons sitting down the entire time in the same space, interacting with the same people they arrived with. The other involves people moving around constantly, getting more drinks, bathroom breaks, talking to strangers, dancing with strangers, possibly getting drunk and disregarding the rules, etc. They're not in the same ballpark. 

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Captainant

Captainant 28,539

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Article from HMS epidemiologist regarding mask wearing messaging...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/dudes-who-wont-wear-masks/613375/

The Dudes Who Won’t Wear Masks

Face coverings are a powerful tool, but health authorities can’t simply ignore the reasons some people refuse to use them.

JUNE 23, 2020

Julia Marcus

Epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School

Well people on this board tend to get touchy if we talk about how and why we're in the mess that we're in

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Captainant

Captainant 28,539

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I drove through Midtown in Houston yesterday and every fucking bar on Bagby was full of people wearing masks on their chin, under their nose, or not at all. Third wave during flu season is going to be a doozie with this many people acting like there's not an ongoing viral pandemic.

Thank goodness only 0.3% of everyone should worry, otherwise we'd all have to live in fear.

...

Or something?

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3,659

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11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

over the last 6 weeks I've been to Dallas, Houston, Tulsa, NW Ark and OKC and everywhere indoors I see about 90%+ mask compliance, when the door has a sign that says mask required.

Not me in Houston.  I've been to Austin, Dallas, and Louisiana.  All masked up everywhere.  Get to my little home corner of the world and it's less than 50%. Was at Walgreens last night and a guy wouldn't even take a mask when offered, then when asked to leave just ignored everyone.  Those poor staff folks weren't going to push. 

But there's a new thing - seen quite a few people go maskless but when they see someone with a mask they pull their shirt collar over their mouth.  WTF is that?

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Okie State

Okie State 3,889

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Not me in Houston.  I've been to Austin, Dallas, and Louisiana.  All masked up everywhere.  Get to my little home corner of the world and it's less than 50%. Was at Walgreens last night and a guy wouldn't even take a mask when offered, then when asked to leave just ignored everyone.  Those poor staff folks weren't going to push. 

But there's a new thing - seen quite a few people go maskless but when they see someone with a mask they pull their shirt collar over their mouth.  WTF is that?

This hasn't been my experience around Houston although I don't really get out all that much. Even out in the Houston burbs full of Aggies it's way more than 50% masks everywhere I've been. Grocery stores are very close to 100% although lots of noses hanging out. Every now and then I'll run into a family of mouth breathers who are standing up to the man, but not all that common.

 

My step Mom was talking yesterday about how great it was visiting Oklahoma this past week and not having to wear a mask anywhere.

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11,860

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

De-risk the shit out of it within the sphere we control (can't control society, but i can control my organization's actions---in this case that org. is my family)...limit our exposure to organizations that don't share our value set.  Plan for the worst, hope for the best, deploy resources when things look clear, hold back when things get muddied again.  Steer clear of anybody that doesn't understand the risk profile.  

 

This has kinda been our approach.  That said, my wife had to make a really tough decision not to go to her grandmother's funeral this week.  We are in our 50s, helping our daughter care for a newborn, and have been pretty strict about following protocols.  Her family is in a small town, large family and they have been going about business as usual, which is fine I guess - none of them have gotten sick.  But they are doing the whole funeral home visitation, rosary, full mass etc - no masks, no distancing and with people coming in from out of town.  Her exposure would have been directly with 100 or so and indirectly with god knows how many.  So she just said, sorry, no.  If you guys aren't following the same rules I'm gonna sit this one out.  Sad, but I agree with her.

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Stannis

Stannis 232

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2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I wish we could brand anti-mask people with some sort of 6-month tattoo

 

that way, when they show up to the hospital, they get pushed right back out to the street

They are branded already.  Just look at their ring fingers and you'll find "Fightin Texas Aggie Class of ___".

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This is not an inconsistency. Just because both have four walls and serve consumable items doesn't make them identical. It takes a little more thought. One has patrons sitting down the entire time in the same space, interacting with the same people they arrived with. The other involves people moving around constantly, getting more drinks, bathroom breaks, talking to strangers, dancing with strangers, possibly getting drunk and disregarding the rules, etc. They're not in the same ballpark. 

I'm definitely not on the "the virus is just the flu hyuk hyuk!" crowd with some of the others here as I'm sure you know, but there were definitely some inconsistencies. I realize some of them, like the fact that you could go to the gym but not to a fully-outdoor brewery on 10 acres, are sort of legislation-bound because Texas categorizes breweries as bars. But things like churches being open but my kid not being able to go play on a playground outdoors in 105 degree summer were beyond stupid. The Bear Grylls of viruses is not going to survive on 110 degree monkey bars. There was a lot of rule-setting purely to eliminate liability and not based on any real facts. And there was a lack of creativity and desire to make workaround regulations so that safe things could stay open and unsafe things were closed. On both sides. Blue areas erred on the side of a lazy "just shut it all down" stance and red areas did the opposite. 

This was a situation where the politicization of everything hurt everyone regardless of who ran your city and state. That and the laziness and lack of problem-solving skills of politicians in general. 

Edited by BradInATX
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aggie08

aggie08 21,800

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2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

One thing I think about a lot is the fact that people lump all relatively unlikely things into one “ain’t gonna happen” bucket.  For example, on a per flight basis it is much more likely you will be struck by lightning than die in a plane crash (about 60 times depending on where you live). But which do people worry about more?  Or this one- year percentage of deaths in a car accident in a given year or a mass shooting are about the same (around 1 in 11,000). 
 
So as I read it, the estimated likelihood of death if you catch COVID is between 1in 200 and 1 in 300 across the whole population.  That’s a shit ton more likely than dying in a car accident or mass shooting (1 in 11,000), dying of food poisoning (1 in 100,000), having your house burn down (1 in 3,000), or being killed by a tornado (1 in 5 million).  
 

Its in the range of audits for people who make over $500k ( 1 in 200) and less likely than being some level of functionality ambidextrous (1 in 100). 

But most folks who don’t wear masks would tell you that they’re much more concerned about car wrecks, crazed school gunmen, listeria in their ice cream, or being audited.  

I wonder what the Venn diagram looks like for people preening around about how awesome they are for doing whatever the hell they want and not "living in fear" of a virus that kills less than 0.5% of its carriers and people who think that it's a good idea to arm school teachers. Gotta be almost a direct overlap.

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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3 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Smart people make educated guesses, usually erring on the side of caution, based on limited data, then amend those positions when more data becomes available.

Stupid people think changing your opinion on something over time is a sign of incompetence/weakness, and love to play the "gotcha" game of holding people's feet to the fire when they alter from their initial position.

Interesting point.  I think refusal to change your opinion on something is exactly what is happening with many people.

Seven months ago I believed this pandemic was something to fear.  However, I have altered my initial position.

It has nothing to do with politics, which bizarrely is exactly how many seem to form their outlook on the severity of this virus.

Dispute the data I posted, please.  Instead of insults and sarcasm convince me I am incorrect.  I am willing to be persuaded if convincing data is presented.

But the facts that are relevant to me are 99 plus percent of confirmed cases are mild.  The actual number of cases is actually an order of magnitude higher putting severe cases and death rate at a miniscule percentage.

While death is always a tragedy, it is a fact of life.  There are over 50 million deaths on the face of this planet every year.

We all are aware that many of the tiny percentage who have perished due to Covid-19 were in high risk groups to have perished this year with or without Covid-19.

Maybe it is time to reassess the situation, and realize while erring on the side of caution was wise early on this pandemic we should amend our positions due to the facts I stated above.

Y'all have a good one!

 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 53,505

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15 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I wonder what the Venn diagram looks like for people preening around about how awesome they are for doing whatever the hell they want and not "living in fear" of a virus that kills less than 0.5% of its carriers and people who think that it's a good idea to arm school teachers. Gotta be almost a direct overlap.

A guy I know that’s like that just this morning posted a screenshot that it’s 1 degree where he is in Nevada. I thought about pulling some data and telling him to quit living in fear because hypothermia only kills x people per year and that coats and hats and gloves are for sheeple. 
but then realized I’d be happier just going about my day. 

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This is not an inconsistency. Just because both have four walls and serve consumable items doesn't make them identical. It takes a little more thought. One has patrons sitting down the entire time in the same space, interacting with the same people they arrived with. The other involves people moving around constantly, getting more drinks, bathroom breaks, talking to strangers, dancing with strangers, possibly getting drunk and disregarding the rules, etc. They're not in the same ballpark. 

For most of us, going to a bar or restaurant is the same experience, with regard to sitting at a table, having a few drinks, and whatever.

If you have a nightclub experience, maybe you just party better than the rest of us.  The bar/ restaurant differentiation is wildly inconsistent.   Basicly,  the gov't is saying Covid knows if you have a plate of nachos at your table or not.   It's bullshit and arbitrary as fuck.

Edited by slorch
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