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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:


The months before the pandemic was here in any meaningful way? Those are important to you?

Well of course they are when factoring in any of the trends being discussed. That you think they are not only reveals continued ignorance. The entire panel is important to consider. 

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Kyle

Kyle 207

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Naw. This slap fight is perfect for this thread.

Sweetie you're coming to a slap fight without any hands. You're like a horny quadriplegic with no eye lids watching the 24-hour gay porn channel.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15532

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

 

 


This has to be their 8th by now

 

 

A virus that spreads rapidly indoors to people in close proximity and a plan that before didn't work at all - oh, I know!  LET'S DO IT AGAIN! 

What's the old adage about govt fucking up a two car funeral procession.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Remember when you came on here and told us about conspiracy theories that you read about on your Q message boards?

muh stolen election!

 

There was a discussion about which of the low-information DT posters are Q types, because there's obviously a lot of you here who don't want to admit it publicly on a message board that skews educated. The first two that came to mind were you and dcar00. He'll out himself eventually too. Can't wait for the military to throw Biden out and put Trump back in in August!!

Edited by BradInATX
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Captainant

Captainant 28387

Posted
Posted

Speaking of low-information people and COVID...

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/sarah-palin-covid0-19-tests-positive-wear-masks/

Quote

Anchorage, Alaska — Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin says she tested positive for COVID-19 and is urging people to take steps to guard against the coronavirus, such as wearing masks in public.

"Through it all, I view wearing that cumbersome mask indoors in a crowd as not only allowing the newfound luxury of being incognito, but trust it's better than doing nothing to slow the spread," Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, told People magazine.

"And history will show we 'Masked Singer' visitors were masked before being masked was cool," she said in her statement, referring to the TV show on which she once appeared.

It wasn't clear when Palin, 57, tested positive. She told the magazine other members of her family also tested positive.

She said her case shows "anyone can catch this."

"I strongly encourage everyone to use common sense to avoid spreading this and every other virus out there," Palin said, in urging vigilance but not fear.

She said she also advised "reprioritizing some personal time and resources to ensure as healthy a lifestyle as you can create so when viruses do hit, you have at least some armor to fight it."

Who knew palin was part of the pro-facemask/anti-FREEDOM gang?? /s

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15532

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Remember when you came on here and told us about conspiracy theories that you read about on your Q message boards?

muh stolen election!

That's cute that you are so twisted in knots that you think this was ever my point.  It wasn't.  Now go get your fucking shine box, Derka

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)

The Democrats are running a child sex ring through pizza parlors! And they stole the election!

 

 

"I'd like to introduce Brad to the hundreds of sworn election affidavits that he most certainly summarily dismissed about election tampering.  "

- BabaYaga definitely not at all advancing conspiracy theories that the election was stolen

Edited by BradInATX
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15532

Posted
Posted

Brad think he's found an avenue to deflect away all the shit he's getting for being a giant twat, and in doing so, ironically putting on center stage what a fucking moron he is by continuing down this path.  Even going back to edit his posts

I'll type this slowly.

The "FL conspiracy" is a single, unsubstantiated ex-employee.  But here, as it fits the agenda, is taken as gospel.  Now the other most recent example of unsubstantiated allegations was this most recent election?  There are many other examples, but these are the most recent and numerous. 

Now, if we are being intellectually honest and not a partisan twat, you'd think allegations of any kind would be merit for discussion, right?  As that would be intellectually and logically consistent.  Both allegations are equally unsubstantiated, yet one helps, and one not so much?  

So what you are left with is a partisan hack picking and choosing allegations that suit his already pre-determined agenda, or as we all know it by another name:  confirmation bias.

So again, go get your fucking shine box

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Brad think he's found an avenue to deflect away all the shit he's getting for being a giant twat, and in doing so, ironically putting on center stage what a fucking moron he is by continuing down this path.  Even going back to edit his posts

I'll type this slowly.

The "FL conspiracy" is a single, unsubstantiated ex-employee.  But here, as it fits the agenda, is taken as gospel.  Now the other most recent example of unsubstantiated allegations was this most recent election?  There are many other examples, but these are the most recent and numerous. 

Now, if we are being intellectually honest and not a partisan twat, you'd think allegations of any kind would be merit for discussion, right?  As that would be intellectually and logically consistent.  Both allegations are equally unsubstantiated, yet one helps, and one not so much?  

So what you are left with is a partisan hack picking and choosing allegations that suit his already pre-determined agenda, or as we all know it by another name:  confirmation bias.

So again, go get your fucking shine box

 

Yep your Q stolen election conspiracy theories are identical to a whistleblower who said that the state of Florida was underreporting their numbers (which is now being shown to be very very likely to be true) and was fired immediately after whistleblowing. Same exact thing!

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15532

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yep your Q stolen election conspiracy theories are identical to a whistleblower who said that the state of Florida was underreporting their numbers (which is now being shown to be very very likely to be true) and was fired immediately after whistleblowing. Same exact thing!

Like I said, confirmation bias.  There's your fucking picture in the dictionary.  

"very likely" =unsubstantiated and unproven, but again they fit your preconceived narrative and chase after it like a cat and a laser pointer.  But by all means, keep fucking that chicken Derka.  
 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8963

Posted
Posted
A virus that spreads rapidly indoors to people in close proximity and a plan that before didn't work at all - oh, I know!  LET'S DO IT AGAIN! 
What's the old adage about govt fucking up a two car funeral procession.  

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over knowing the results
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utee94

utee94 16066

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Like debating politics on a message board.

Amen brutha.

There are threads on this message board with relevant COVID 19 talk.  This, is not that.

Mostly I come to this thread for the lulz.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12405

Posted
Posted

More panic porn and deliberate misleading from Team Apocolypse and their accomplices in the fake news media.

And here are some tangible effects of all this misinformation:

So even though these vaccines are virtually 100% effective, we still have 30+% of the population who will refuse to get back to normal because they feel unsafe.

This is fucking crazy and is the fault of our public health "experts" and media.

The message should be, and should have been for the last 4 months:

If you get vaxxed, it is extremely unlikely you would contract Covid 19, and even if you did, it is a virtual certainty that you will not develop complications. 

Instead, even with a vaccine available for all Americans, we've got a big chunk of the population still stricken with fear if they venture out among people largely due to the message they've been receiving over and over and over again.  

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

Posted
Posted

So to the excess death discussion by state, I pulled the most recent CDC weekly excess death estimates for all 50 states. The CDC produces two weighted estimates (which attempt to control for the incompleteness in the most recent data) of excess death provided, I used the high estimate. Using similar approach to JAPH paper, I removed the COVID deaths by substracting the most recent COVID death tallies for each state (also using CDC data).  

Assuming all remaining deaths are related to COVID (which is not the case, but we'll roll with it) the total excess death estimate for Florida Jan 1 2020 - March 2021 is 7171 (22% of reported COVID death count).  They rank 4th in excess death behind California (19812; 34% of reported COVID death count), Texas (14586; 31%), New York State and NYC combined (7309; 15%).  Just for reference, if you pull NYC out of the NY numbers they are 6313; 34%. Those numbers generally validate against the NYT piece that @justhookit linked earlier. 

States with highest unreported COVID death counts as a proportion of their total death count (minimum of 5k deaths) are Missouri (58%), Kentucky (49%), South Carolina (38%), Maryland (37%), Ohio (37%), California (34%), NY exc NYC (34%). Further down the list is Texas @ 31% and Florida @ 22%. Data get wobbly for a couple states, notably Mass which would appear to overreport COVID by about 6k cases using this method. If you remove the 5k minimum restriction, its Vermont, Oregon, Alaska, DC, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Montana (all with over 50% "under reporting" of COVID deaths. 

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sidis

sidis 9990

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So to the excess death discussion by state, I pulled the most recent CDC weekly excess death estimates for all 50 states. The CDC produces two weighted estimates (which attempt to control for the incompleteness in the most recent data) of excess death provided, I used the high estimate. Using similar approach to JAPH paper, I removed the COVID deaths by substracting the most recent COVID death tallies for each state (also using CDC data).  

Assuming all remaining deaths are related to COVID (which is not the case, but we'll roll with it) the total excess death estimate for Florida Jan 1 2020 - March 2021 is 7171 (22% of reported COVID death count).  They rank 4th in excess death behind California (19812; 34% of reported COVID death count), Texas (14586; 31%), New York State and NYC combined (7309; 15%).  Just for reference, if you pull NYC out of the NY numbers they are 6313; 34%. Those numbers generally validate against the NYT piece that @justhookit linked earlier. 

States with highest unreported COVID death counts as a proportion of their total death count (minimum of 5k deaths) are Missouri (58%), Kentucky (49%), South Carolina (38%), Maryland (37%), Ohio (37%), California (34%), NY exc NYC (34%). Further down the list is Texas @ 31% and Florida @ 22%. Data get wobbly for a couple states, notably Mass which would appear to overreport COVID by about 6k cases using this method. If you remove the 5k minimum restriction, its Vermont, Oregon, Alaska, DC, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Montana (all with over 50% "under reporting" of COVID deaths. 

i haven't been following the slap fight with brad but I'm trying to confirm what you are saying you did here from a methodology perspective so as to have the most meaningful possible takeaway from your post.  i am going to do a simplified exemplar to ensure i am reading it back to you properly...

"typical" deaths for 15 months for state: 100.

cdc estimated total deaths for 15 months: 150 so excess deaths for period estimated to be 50 (or 40 with more conservative methodology).

Anastasis enters the chat and starts with cdc estimated 50 excess death from their higher excess death methodology.

Anastasis then looks to cdc to see that state had 40 confirmed, reported covid deaths in the same period and subtracts that to put it in the definitely covid bucket.

then Anastasis says there are 10 remaining excess deaths in the year.  if Anastasis then assumes those 10 are actually covid, then he divides that 10 into 40 to say that the state is underreporting by 25%?

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Every accusation is an admission for daily trumpers.

 

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Is this the Daily Trumper Q Thread?  

Or just the Daily Texaggy?

Just a reminder - Q was in internet prank.

Every now and then I need a reminder of why I don't frequent the CR. Thanks.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, sidis said:

i haven't been following the slap fight with brad but I'm trying to confirm what you are saying you did here from a methodology perspective so as to have the most meaningful possible takeaway from your post.  i am going to do a simplified exemplar to ensure i am reading it back to you properly...

"typical" deaths for 15 months for state: 100.

cdc estimated total deaths for 15 months: 150 so excess deaths for period estimated to be 50 (or 40 with more conservative methodology).

Anastasis enters the chat and starts with cdc estimated 50 excess death from their higher excess death methodology.

Anastasis then looks to cdc to see that state had 40 confirmed, reported covid deaths in the same period and subtracts that to put it in the definitely covid bucket.

then Anastasis says there are 10 remaining excess deaths in the year.  if Anastasis then assumes those 10 are actually covid, then he divides that 10 into 40 to say that the state is underreporting by 25%?

I think you got it.  It's all CDC data, with a similar approach as the AJPH paper quoted earlier to remove the known COVID cases.  Key distinction with the AJPH flow being that I didn't build my own excess death model and just ran with the CDC one. FWIW, the CDC excess death numbers are pretty close over the time frame included in the paper (within about 10%).  Aggregating over longer period appears to smooth month to month fluctuations between the two models.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15532

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

"Florida's numbers are wrong" is the left-wing version of "the election was stolen" - anyone giving any credence to either should be punched in the balls and forced to watch Rout 66 over and over again on loop.

 

Can't quite put my finger on it, but I feel like I've seen this very sentiment posted before......

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23699

Posted
Posted (edited)

But Moosa Tatar, the lead author of the study featured by Yahoo, said the story’s framing of his analysis was incorrect, and he does not yet know how many of the excess deaths are attributable to COVID.

“The impact of COVID-19 on mortality is significantly greater than the official COVID-19 data suggest. But we need further research to determine specific reasons for this,” he told National Review. “These deaths may have been directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19.”



The back bench data analyst disagrees. "50%" underreporting and "10-15k over the entire year of COVID". Put that in your pipe Moosa. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Kyle

Kyle 207

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

Every now and then I need a reminder of why I don't frequent the CR. Thanks.

High talk coming from folks who believe Russian hackers change elections, high school kids attacked an poor Injun, Russian pee hookers, unsubstantiated rape allegations, D-list actors getting attacked with nooses, Muslim bans, mass conspiracies against minor Florida data analysts, etc. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
But Moosa Tatar, the lead author of the study featured by Yahoo, said the story’s framing of his analysis was incorrect, and he does not yet know how many of the excess deaths are attributable to COVID.
“The impact of COVID-19 on mortality is significantly greater than the official COVID-19 data suggest. But we need further research to determine specific reasons for this,” he told National Review. “These deaths may have been directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19.”


The back bench data analyst disagrees. "50%" underreporting and "10-15k over the entire year of COVID". Put that in your pipe Moosa. 

LOL. Not at all what I said and of course you know it. Gaslighting like that might work on the people around you in the real world and the hillbilly posters and Qanon fans that you've been reduced to interacting with now that most of the serious people ignore you for being a hack, but I won't be biting. Get back to me when you figure out how many months are in a year.

Hope you're enjoying basking in rep from Kyle, Cheese weasel, and the Qanon guy. You are the company you keep.
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