Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

Thankful that my MIL was able to get surgery for her breast cancer prior to elective surgeries being stopped.  Not sure if it would have caused her to have it delayed, but very thankful to the folks at MD Anderson for not fucking around and finding out.

[Texas Jeff 1,945]

9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

It would be interesting to know what the break down of vaccines given by age is.  There are ~12 million 65 or older Texans, and according to the Bloomberg tracker we’ve given out about 9 million doses.  Just don’t know how many of them are front line workers vs elderly.  The vaccine starts showing effectiveness after about 2 weeks even before the second dose is given.  So there really is a chance that at least mortality rate could drop pretty quickly in the next couple weeks. How you’re right about that prediction. 

Texas has a dashboard up with this information here, check out the "People Vaccinated" tab to see the distribution by age

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary

Texas has currently vaccinated about 720,000 folks with first shots and 83,000 with second shots.  That's about three percent of the population over 16.  About 1 in 33 people over the age of 16 have received their first shot.  It is taking 5-7 days to advance the percentage by one percent.

Right now, the biggest tool we have to cut the mortality rate is to wear a mask, wash your hands, stay distant, and just flat out reduce the number of contacts you have with other people.  We all have masks, soap and space -- we can all help by just doing those things and simply deciding not to gather when possible.  Right now, the impact of those things can be much higher than the impact of the vaccine.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Texas Jeff

[GreenspointTexas 9,662]

I still think we will have to wear masks till at least halloween

[UT_OB1 2,224]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

Texas has a dashboard up with this information here, check out the "People Vaccinated" tab to see the distribution by age

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary

Texas has currently vaccinated about 720,000 folks with first shots and 83,000 with second shots.  That's about three percent of the population over 16.  About 1 in 33 people over the age of 16 have received their first shot.  It is taking 5-7 days to advance the percentage by one percent.

Right now, the biggest tool we have to cut the mortality rate is to wear a mask, wash your hands, stay distant, and just flat out reduce the number of contacts you have with other people.  We all have masks, soap and space -- we can all help by just doing those things and simply deciding not to gather when possible.  Right now, the impact of those things can be much higher than the impact of the vaccine.

Oh hell, just noticed there were 2 numbers reported there, and the 9 million doses I saw was only what we’ve been allocated.  That’s crap. So we’re no where near having made it through the most vulnerable population. 

[Don Johnson 4,754]

31 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still think we will have to wear masks till at least halloween

IMO, the general public will have patience for masks until the end of May.  Maybe.  Once summer temps are here and every at risk person and most of the general public has had the chance to get the vaccine, no way.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Don Johnson

[utee94 15,835]

7 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

IMO, the general public will have patience for masks until the end of May.  Maybe.  Once summer temps are here and every at risk person and most of the general public has had the chance to get the vaccine, no way.

If businesses are still requiring masks to enter, then I think people will adhere-- at least in areas where they are currently adhering.

Hanging out at home with family and friends?  Not many folks will continue to do that.  But a lot of people are already not doing that, so...

Edited January 12, 2021 by utee94

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

40 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I still think we will have to wear masks till at least halloween

That’s not really going out on a limb there. It will vary from area to area in my opinion. Bigger cities I could see this happening. Smaller towns, not so much.

[Don Johnson 4,754]

13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

If businesses are still requiring masks to enter, then I think people will adhere-- at least in areas where they are currently adhering.

Hanging out at home with family and friends?  Not many folks will continue to do that.  But a lot of people are already not doing that, so...

Requirements will be requirements, however each state/city/business wants to do it. Although, I imagine many will not have those requirements by summer.  I'm talking about the general public respectfully wearing them (which most are) in non-required settings, especially outdoors.  The patience for that and for "mask shaming" will be gone.

[Armybrat 40,858]

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Oh hell, just noticed there were 2 numbers reported there, and the 9 million doses I saw was only what we’ve been allocated.  That’s crap. So we’re no where near having made it through the most vulnerable population. 

I’m on a waiting list at one provider and have yet to hear from my own system provider. But I’ll just have to wait with the rest of you.

(age 76 with heart disease, 2 attacks, 4 stent implants).

Edited January 12, 2021 by Armybrat

[Guest Lobo]

Between how many people are already walking around having had it awhile back and didn't know it, how many people had it/have it/are about to have it and will know it (those two groups being the herd), and then what a semi-competent distribution system will look like from MLK Day to Memorial Day...mathematically we already get to where we need to be.  Everything beyond that will be small pockets in rural areas missed by vaccine efforts or way down the list, concentrated areas of seniors/elderly, et. al.  We'll still lose some people over the summer but I think most restrictions will be voluntary by Independence Day. 

Obviously, some more concentrated areas like indoor sporting events, church, etc. where you just sit on top of people for hundreds of feet in every direction will still be an issue and should maintain current standards perhaps until Autumn.  As will places that attract an elderly and vulnerable population---think church, Michael's Crafts, and doctor's waiting rooms.  

If, and this is a big IF, we can get a competent strategy at the federal and state levels to deploy this vaccine now that we're getting out from the HCW population into a more general population (obviously still with priority categorization)........we're in good shape mathematically by June.  The real challenge becomes managing that last say 10% between herd and vaccinated.  People get complacent, but not like selfish asshole-complacent, innocent complacent.  You start hearing how one part of your city is complete vaccinated and you start moving around again and forget your mask in one HEB and not for another.  You read that your area is just days away from being above 70% so you innocently attend a friend's birthday party.  You see the finish line and push back your second vaccine shot a couple days because of a work project.  Those last few weeks are going to be tricky because of how much information is going to be pouring in about large states and tiny towns, and instead of sifting through it all to see exactly where one person sits in at all, they may just go with the flow and start going back to normalcy.  Not selfishly, just sort of societal inertia.  Those last few weeks could get real fucking ugly if we not only have a good distribution system, but a good alert/dashboard so a person knows not only where their state and city are, but their county and hospital group, down to their voting precinct if possible, plus an easy app to figure out when to get your second shot for you and yours.  Otherwise everything from Easter to Independence Day could be a real shitshow and it doesn't have to be...not anymore.  

Let me add, don't make Easter plans this year.  We're not gonna be where you think we are in terms of transmission reduction.  It'll be close, but it's not worth killing a grandparent over.  You can blame the moon and the solstice, not me, 4 April is a little on the early side and still inside the window of the critical time we'll need to get up to herd/acceptable vaccine numbers.  When they said it'd be gone by Easter, they meant 2022.  

tl; dr---May is not the time to drop the guard but rather to be our most vigilant to provide cover for those that can't.  Then we all party our asses off this summer. 

[Captainant 27,706]

47 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

That’s not really going out on a limb there. It will vary from area to area in my opinion. Bigger cities I could see this happening. Smaller towns, not so much.

shit, small towns already aren't wearing facemasks

[TexasGrunt 72]

Just now, Armybrat said:

I’m on a waiting list at one provider and have yet to hear from my own system provider.

(age 76 with heart disease, 2 attacks, 4 stent implants).

My mom is 74 and has issues.  I also have issues, my mom lives with me...   

She is like you, has issues and in the system.  She did get an email from Memorial Hermann in Katy to schedule first shot about 2 weeks ago.  But, she uses facebook and my sister for information so she waited a day or 2 doing nothing until I told her to get this done.  By then no appointments and has heard nothing since then.  Not sure why this is so hard....

[TexasGrunt 72]

33 minutes ago, TexasGrunt said:

My mom is 74 and has issues.  I also have issues, my mom lives with me...   

She is like you, has issues and in the system.  She did get an email from Memorial Hermann in Katy to schedule first shot about 2 weeks ago.  But, she uses facebook and my sister for information so she waited a day or 2 doing nothing until I told her to get this done.  By then no appointments and has heard nothing since then.  Not sure why this is so hard....

Ok this is weird, about 10 minutes after typing this she got the email from Memorial Hermann to do a drive thru at NRG and she is now scheduled for this Saturday and her second shot was auto schedule 28 days later...  

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

Texas has a dashboard up with this information here, check out the "People Vaccinated" tab to see the distribution by age

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary

Texas has currently vaccinated about 720,000 folks with first shots and 83,000 with second shots.  That's about three percent of the population over 16.  About 1 in 33 people over the age of 16 have received their first shot.  It is taking 5-7 days to advance the percentage by one percent.

 

 

This is going to change pretty rapidly when the model goes from hospitals focusing on their employees to giant distribution centers like the Alamodome and NRG, and the vaccine opening up to a much larger population. We're also going to get a couple new companies with vaccinations coming into play in February.

Phase 1A was always going to be slow and kinda shitty. I'm hopeful that 1B and beyond will start to get some momentum going and put some numbers on the board.

Edited January 12, 2021 by BradInATX

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 hours ago, TexasGrunt said:

her second shot was auto schedule 28 days later... 

Oh shit.

[atomheartbevo 89,766]

15 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

One of my employees is somehow lined up to get one because his mom works at some school district, they are getting it, and a few have opted out so they opened it up to family to fill the gaps. 

Some of the vaccines come in 10 doses to a vial, once once they open that vial, they have around an hour to use it, so when they are scheduling this stuff, they are taking that into account, and trying to make sure they have warm bodies for every dose.

[dcar00 14,321]

6 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I’m on a waiting list at one provider and have yet to hear from my own system provider. But I’ll just have to wait with the rest of you.

(age 76 with heart disease, 2 attacks, 4 stent implants).

brat delco center in austin is giving vax to anyone right now.  apparently if you are in line by 7pm you get it.  moderna.  just had 3 co workers under 65 get it.

[Brisketexan 105,187]

19 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

brat delco center in austin is giving vax to anyone right now.  apparently if you are in line by 7pm you get it.  moderna.  just had 3 co workers under 65 get it.

Sonofabitch....can't get over there.   Seriously, when anyone local hears about anything like this, please share it.

[Anastasis 23,481]

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sonofabitch....can't get over there.   Seriously, when anyone local hears about anything like this, please share it.

Seriously. 

[Guest]

On 1/11/2021 at 9:12 AM, Snake Diggity said:

Predictions: the magic number of when the pandemic ends in the US is 70,000,000 vaccinated.  Specific to Texas, 6,000,000.  7 day MA of cases in US will peak this week.  US Hospitalizations will peak Jan 22.    Hospitalizations will be below pre-pandemic levels by Memorial Day.  The CDC will declare the pandemic over by Labor Day.

dumbass( j/k)

Once vaccinations get going, the virus will evolve.   It's only natural.

 

The people enjoying their influence ain't gonna just give it up.  We're more likely to get a real tax cut when Congress does the next budget.

[GreenspointTexas 9,662]

New record for covid deaths today

[mchookem 16,346]

21 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

Thankful that my MIL was able to get surgery for her breast cancer prior to elective surgeries being stopped.  Not sure if it would have caused her to have it delayed, but very thankful to the folks at MD Anderson for not fucking around and finding out.

my sister is scheduled for knee replacement surgery Friday. she talked with them today and they were giving her all the rules and regulations in preparation for it...no mention of cancellation.

i wonder if the restriction applies only to surgeries that had not already been scheduled? or maybe since her knee is so bad they are not considering it completely 'elective'...

i guess they could just be ignoring the rule, but that seems risky. i just hope they don't wait until her final pre-op appt Thursday to tell her, she'll likely fall apart emotionally 😟 

[dcar00 14,321]

9 hours ago, TexasGrunt said:

Ok this is weird, about 10 minutes after typing this she got the email from Memorial Hermann to do a drive thru at NRG and she is now scheduled for this Saturday and her second shot was auto schedule 28 days later...  

I think the vax are going to start coming at a pretty rapid pace over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Helobious 9,464]

Not sure where to put this...

Obviously many people will keep getting sick from this & dying for a long time, but is it safe to say we’ve already pretty much seen the worst that this virus can do? It’s been passed around the world for over a year now, we know how it behaves in every season & climate, and our understanding of how to treat it is only getting better. Add in the vaccine factor and I’d like to think the answer is yes. 

[utee94 15,835]

37 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Not sure where to put this...

Obviously many people will keep getting sick from this & dying for a long time, but is it safe to say we’ve already pretty much seen the worst that this virus can do? It’s been passed around the world for over a year now, we know how it behaves in every season & climate, and our understanding of how to treat it is only getting better. Add in the vaccine factor and I’d like to think the answer is yes. 

I'd say "yes" but the increased transmissibility of newer strains makes me second-guess that.  Suffice to say, we need both local and global inoculation to proceed faster than it currently is.

[Armybrat 40,858]

Well, the vaccination rollout is still in its infancy, so more time is needed for production & actual vax implementation to go all gas/no brakes.

It took quite a while to get the polio vaccine out to everybody 65 years ago.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

It took quite a while to get the polio vaccine out to everybody 65 years ago.

Yeah, but now we are living in the Instant Society. 

[Bevo 13,591]

On 1/11/2021 at 10:09 PM, pearlandhorn said:

Thankful that my MIL was able to get surgery for her breast cancer prior to elective surgeries being stopped.  Not sure if it would have caused her to have it delayed, but very thankful to the folks at MD Anderson for not fucking around and finding out.

Breast cancer surgery (mastectomy/lumpectomy) is not elective.

[Armybrat 40,858]

Yep, some things cannot be put off.

Neither was my retina procedure or Mrs. Brat’s foot surgery considered elective. 
Nephew’s wife also had knee replacement surgery.

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Breast cancer surgery (mastectomy/lumpectomy) is not elective.

Good to know.  Wasn't sure if it would be considered elective or not as it's a recent diagnosis.

[GreenspointTexas 9,662]

Just passed over 400k known deaths. More like 500k deaths if u look at excess deaths

 

 

anyone know how the flu numbers are looking this year?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Flu is trending MUCH lower this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Eskimohorn 5,642]

Just passed over 400k known deaths. More like 500k deaths if u look at excess deaths
 
 
anyone know how the flu numbers are looking this year?

Yep. There are other contributing factors, but especially early on when testing was spotty, COVID is the primary cause of these excess deaths.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-19-death-toll-is-even-worse-than-it-looks-11610636840

[BradInATX 9,208]

  

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Flu is trending MUCH lower this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

 

 

What do you think this graph shows/tells us?

Edited January 15, 2021 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23,481]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What do you think this graph shows/tells us?

 

Pretty clear to me...

 

Spoiler

 

[Guest Lobo]

Obviously masks, social distancing, and not traveling unless necessary are gonna help with the flu transmission. 

But what I am just utterly fascinated by...is how the fuck were people washing their hands before Covid-19?  I realize in 1919, tens of millions of Americans were still using community wash bins, soap was a luxury, and there certainly wasn't hand sanitizer.  But in 2019, how the fuck were y'all washing your hands?  Like George Costanza, just pretending to do it by dabbing a bit of water on your hands and then grabbing four paper towels?  I think that adults are finally washing their hands like responsible people is helping bring down the flu, Covid-19, and just a general feeling of "Welp, I can drive home now...these mitts no longer smell of South Austin's Mom."  

I know it's no manly to wash your hands vigorously unless you're a mechanic or surgeon, but I hope we at least learn two lessons from Covid.  Wash your fucking hands like an adult and keep the fuck back from me---you don't need to stand shoulder to shoulder with me to tell me a damn story.

[BradInATX 9,208]

29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Pretty clear to me...

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I think he's "just asking questions!!"

[Anastasis 23,481]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Obviously masks, social distancing, and not traveling unless necessary are gonna help with the flu transmission. 

 

That's my take.  Witness the impact of masks and hand washing on viral respiratory infections. 

[Wally Fairway 5,571]

14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Obviously masks, social distancing, and not traveling unless necessary are gonna help with the flu transmission. 

But what I am just utterly fascinated by...is how the fuck were people washing their hands before Covid-19?  I realize in 1919, tens of millions of Americans were still using community wash bins, soap was a luxury, and there certainly wasn't hand sanitizer.  But in 2019, how the fuck were y'all washing your hands?  Like George Costanza, just pretending to do it by dabbing a bit of water on your hands and then grabbing four paper towels?  I think that adults are finally washing their hands like responsible people is helping bring down the flu, Covid-19, and just a general feeling of "Welp, I can drive home now...these mitts no longer smell of South Austin's Mom."  

I know it's no manly to wash your hands vigorously unless you're a mechanic or surgeon, but I hope we at least learn two lessons from Covid.  Wash your fucking hands like an adult and keep the fuck back from me---you don't need to stand shoulder to shoulder with me to tell me a damn story.

Here is the difference for me, I wash a little longer but I also am using hand sanitizer 3-4+ times a day; have been since March

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

Here is the difference for me, I wash a little longer but I also am using hand sanitizer 3-4+ times a day; have been since March

We're still talking about your hands right?  

[BradInATX 9,208]

That's my take.  Witness the impact of masks and hand washing on viral respiratory infections. 

That's actually the only interesting thing about that flu chart. If we're running at 50% of a typical flu season, our Covid numbers would be a lot lot worse without precautions. Possibly 7 figure deaths.

[DDD Dad 14,346]

On 1/12/2021 at 6:58 AM, Texas Jeff said:

Right now, the biggest tool we have to cut the mortality rate is to wear a mask, wash your hands, stay distant, and just flat out reduce the number of contacts you have with other people.  

Got in my garage elevator to my office this morning and some douche bag going to the gym in my building gets on from the visitor floor with no mask.  I immediately stepped off and told him to "put a fucking mask on".

JFC some people.

[Hate 20,128]

I didn’t get the flu shot this year for the first time in a many many years because I knew the numbers would be low. I wear a mask when I go in out in public places and I work from home, so I figured my chances of catching it were pretty damn low.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

We're still talking about your hands right?  

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I didn’t get the flu shot this year for the first time in a many many years because I knew the numbers would be low. I wear a mask when I go in out in public places and I work from home, so I figured my chances of catching it were pretty damn low.

You "knew" the number would be low, as in past tense.  You know we still have 3 more months of "flu season", right dude  ?  It's a free shot that takes 30 seconds and could help you from spreading it to elderly folks even if you're not susceptible.  Actually the only reason I'm giving you flack is I know you're nighttime habits and that day-after "comfortably numb" feeling you get after you get the shot...it goes really well with whiskey, some weed, and some Dead music.  That's the only reason I get it (except I can't smoke weed anymore because of my probation officer in Liechtenstein).  

[BabaYaga 15,302]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I didn’t get the flu shot this year for the first time in a many many years because I knew the numbers would be low. I wear a mask when I go in out in public places and I work from home, so I figured my chances of catching it were pretty damn low.

These are conversational numbers from a friend's wife who is an OB doc in Frisco.  Last year 8,000+ national deaths in the month (it was NOV or DEC?).  This year it was apparently less than 50.  Either this monster has kicked the flu's ass, preventions are working, and/or a flu diagnosis combined with a COVID diagnosis and subsequent mortality attribution is not accounting for anything viral related than COVID.  More than likely a cocktail of all the above.  

[DDD Dad 14,346]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

that day-after "comfortably numb" feeling you get after you get the shot...it goes really well with whiskey, some weed, and some Dead music.  That's the only reason I get it (except I can't smoke weed anymore because of my probation officer in Liechtenstein).  

Now you tell me.

[BradInATX 9,208]

https://www.livescience.com/us-life-expectancy-drop-covid-19.html

Just a little flu

[Guest Lobo]

Of course we have a greater reduction in life expectancy than other countries, we expect more life! 

[atomheartbevo 89,766]

On 1/15/2021 at 10:58 AM, BradInATX said:

What do you think this graph shows/tells us?

As pointed out, people weren't washing their hands, using sanitizer, were going to school or work sick (a lot of kids with the flu would be caught at the temperature check, unless their parents fucked around and gave them something to knock their fever down, which happens a lot).

But I'd like to point out that this is backed up by the fact that people cleared out soap and hand sanitizer at the start of the pandemic.   Like all of the sudden, a shitload of people were like "oh fuck, I don't have (or use) much soap.

I would like to think going forward, that the stigma with wearing masks is gone.  Like Asians wear them when they are sick and have to be out and about, it'd be great if we did the same thing in the US.