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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I would like to think going forward, that the stigma with wearing masks is gone.  Like Asians wear them when they are sick and have to be out and about, it'd be great if we did the same thing in the US.

NO, because “muh rights”.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Hate

Hate 20136

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You "knew" the number would be low, as in past tense.  You know we still have 3 more months of "flu season", right dude  ?  It's a free shot that takes 30 seconds and could help you from spreading it to elderly folks even if you're not susceptible.  Actually the only reason I'm giving you flack is I know you're nighttime habits and that day-after "comfortably numb" feeling you get after you get the shot...it goes really well with whiskey, some weed, and some Dead music.  That's the only reason I get it (except I can't smoke weed anymore because of my probation officer in Liechtenstein).  

Yeah, I knew with the mask wearing in public and working from home that my chances of getting the flu this year was pretty low. I think most people that are sick are isolating as well (understood the are eXceptions) get it every year, but this year I just didn’t see much of a point.
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BrazilHorn

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Flu is down everywhere. 
Started with Australia/South America where for all intents and purposes it was a nothing burger during their flu season (which precedes ours)

CV19 in spite of the muh rights crowd has changed how we engage/work etc

Now we will all die from the superbug being created by the incessant hand sanitizing down the line but that’s a problem for another day. 

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utee94

utee94 15852

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I would like to think going forward, that the stigma with wearing masks is gone.  Like Asians wear them when they are sick and have to be out and about, it'd be great if we did the same thing in the US.

I don't know if we'll ever see that here in the US.

But what I do think is possible and would really like to see happen, is that the stigma associated with taking a sick day, is eliminated or at least diminished.  From both sides.  Too many people think they just need to bull their way through being sick, and go out in public anyway, and become potential spreaders.

And too many employers either give little or no sick time, or they berate or punish people that DO take allowed sick leave.  It's inherent in our culture and I'm hopeful that at least that part of the problem can be reduced or eliminated as a result of this pandemic.

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fuggled

fuggled 576

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Not sure where to put this...
Obviously many people will keep getting sick from this & dying for a long time, but is it safe to say we’ve already pretty much seen the worst that this virus can do? It’s been passed around the world for over a year now, we know how it behaves in every season & climate, and our understanding of how to treat it is only getting better. Add in the vaccine factor and I’d like to think the answer is yes. 
Not so sure we're quite out of the woods yet. Things could stay bad or get worse for a while. Wear a mark, everyone.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/13/956504515/u-k-variant-could-drive-a-new-surge-in-the-u-s-experts-warn

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drt

drt 640

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Posted
1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

CV19 in spite of the muh rights crowd has changed how we engage/work etc

Now we will all die from the superbug being created by the incessant hand sanitizing down the line but that’s a problem for another day. 

Exactly this. 
 

I wish we’d all just use normal soap correctly rather than the antibacterial stuff, but as you say first things first. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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So I want to ask what you guys think about the UK variant.

Boris Johnson called for a new lockdown in Jan 5 and they peaked Jan 8 at 68k cases and have since trended down.

80aead29b5d0f70b1f8bc65a8f567bde.jpg


I mean is it really different than any slope we’ve seen from various states or developed countries? Zero percent chance the lockdown shows effects after 3 days... and the variant is supposedly 70% more transmissible. What am I missing here?

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

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25 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What am I missing here?

A lot of hyperbole or handwringing until we have actual facts. Scientists state several possibilities and the news runs with the most drastic scenario. The truth usually lies somewhere less drastic than the doomsday scenario.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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58 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


After peaking in mid November, I’m not sure but I think the virus is running out of new people to infect

One of these times, probably after the vaccine rollout, you're going to be right about this. And then you can tell everyone you correctly predicted four of the last one times Covid ran out of steam.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Planning my parade route now, Brad
Make sure it goes through Sweden!

Just busting your balls. I tend to think there's a lot of underpromising in the scientific community and that between existing immunity and vaccines, we're going to be back to normal sometime this summer. You might be right pretty soon here.
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52571

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https://news.yahoo.com/almost-third-recovered-covid-patients-180255388.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cDovL20uZmFjZWJvb2suY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADJqXungIEbO1I3ix3gtYUQg7MTBH6jBC4hUxy0DziulDAHNgBG_L3LyEe_xe_YayjMRY_WREct-Hs2kXDdq_mQ9GVQRsb7-to_zSlvgpg5IEYki4tUf0e3C_AjtU0jMMWAsrXHqLk8s3y2kQyQDmSffnH-vTvycrZgYGGrAphgL
 

yahoo and I only skimmed but the gist is they have data saying that about 1/4 that are hospitalized for covid but recover go on to be re-admitted again within 6 months, and 1 of 8 dies the second time.  Haven’t looked deeply into the numbers yet. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

People with health issues tend to have further health issues. Film at 11.

Mouth breathing dumb fuck with the intellectual curiosity of a tree stump who has been wrong as much as one could possibly be wrong about this pandemic doesn't read the article or attempt any sort of serious discussion. Instead throws out a useless one-liner that helps him feel less threatened by things that disrupt his worldview. Film at 11:05.

The median age of the people that died in the study was 65. You think that it's normal for a group of people with a median age of 65 to have a six-month death rate of 12.5%? Even with health conditions? Holy hell that's dumb.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

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5 hours ago, BradInATX said:

The median age of the people that died in the study was 65.

And this was a study done on a select group of people who have been hospitalized most likely because of undiagnosed and chronic underlying conditions. This is not a subsection of all 65 year olds across the nation. When you get myopic in a study group and normalize for all of these unhealthy people then it’s gonna look very bad when the death rates come around.

Covid is not necessarily creating all these conditions. It has unearthed a lot of people who have never been to the doctor in the last 10 years and COVID had perhaps accelerated the conditions and a few others that may have developed these same kidney, heart and other issues in the next five years.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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And this was a study done on a select group of people who have been hospitalized most likely because of undiagnosed and chronic underlying conditions. This is not a subsection of all 65 year olds across the nation. When you get myopic in a study group and normalize for all of these unhealthy people then it’s gonna look very bad when the death rates come around.
Covid is not necessarily creating all these conditions. It has unearthed a lot of people who have never been to the doctor in the last 10 years and COVID had perhaps accelerated the conditions and a few others that may have developed these same kidney, heart and other issues in the next five years.

I acknowledged that in my post. It's still well beyond the edge of reason to believe that a control group consisting of a like population would have died at a rate of 1 in 8 within 6 months.

They might be diabetics, overweight, etc. They weren't terminal cancer patients. It's beyond the boundary of reason to write it off as "they're all fat!". Fat olds die at about 130% the rate of not fat olds. Not 1000% or more which is what you're proposing.

I don't expect Cheese to know better but you do. It's absurd.
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

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Posted (edited)

Lowest total deaths since late December, and this is Tuesday, the usually high spike for catching up. Lowest Tuesday since...late November (Thanksgiving reporting making it difficult to tell)?  Would there be some reason to have a lag on reporting today? Is it too hopeful to think we’re seeing the vaccine kick in for the at risk population?

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

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23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I don't expect Cheese to know better but you do. It's absurd.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

Here's a link to the study because Yahoo News and the stupid English news site didn’t bother to link it. Just throw out some scary numbers without context.

The study is not peer reviewed and a pre print and the authors admit there are several limitations to their analysis. Remember the jizzing everybody got from “studies” about the miracle drug Plaquenil for COVID? It didn’t pan out. Preliminary studies lead to larger better controlled studies after peer review. Same thing needs to happen for this data. I looked through the data tables and there are several problems. I’m not going into them here.

Do we need to be vigilant about long COVID? Absolutely. I will wait to run around with my hair on fire when good science tells me so. There’s nothing you can do about it on here anyway so please lay off the ire.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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26 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

Here's a link to the study because Yahoo News and the stupid English news site didn’t bother to link it. Just throw out some scary numbers without context.

The study is not peer reviewed and a pre print and the authors admit there are several limitations to their analysis. Remember the jizzing everybody got from “studies” about the miracle drug Plaquenil for COVID? It didn’t pan out. Preliminary studies lead to larger better controlled studies after peer review. Same thing needs to happen for this data. I looked through the data tables and there are several problems. I’m not going into them here.

Do we need to be vigilant about long COVID? Absolutely. I will wait to run around with my hair on fire when good science tells me so. There’s nothing you can do about it on here anyway so please lay off the ire.

 

Appreciate the link. I looked for it but couldn't find it.

I didn't even realize they were able to establish a control group. That makes the "hurr durr everyone is fat and sick in the study" argument even stupider. Their control has the same characteristics as the test population. There is probably still a skew towards the unwell on the test group side. But we're not flying blind. They were able to control for ICU admits vs. non ICU admits, low-risk vs. high-risk, etc. You're talking a 720-830% increase in risk.

The weaknesses they mentioned are disclaimed in just about every study like this and at least one of their acknowledged issues would mean the study underestimated the impact. 

 

"I looked through the data tables and there are several problems. I’m not going into them here."

Weak, dude. "This statistical study is totally wrong but I'm not going to tell you why but trust me it totally sucks". I don't see anything wrong with what they've presented. The first table just shows the test population vs. the general population. The rest are their results comparing the test population to a mirrored control group. 

The only issue with this study is that it's not peer-reviewed and I assume that's coming. But the only thing peer-review would catch is gross error (IE someone fat-fingered something in Excel) or straight up fraud. Fraud is unlikely given that it's the government of the UK. I also want to see the detail behind how they built the control group. The way they explain it makes perfect sense, but I'd like to see the actual methodology behind building it (whether code or manual process).  

All-in, it's a well done study and barring egregious incompetence or fraud, it should hold up to peer review.

 

Cliff's notes:
- Your link makes the "they're all fat and sick" argument even dumber
- It looks like a pretty good statistical analysis to me. I'd love to hear your alleged objections to it.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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Lowest total deaths since late December, and this is Tuesday, the usually high spike for catching up. Lowest Tuesday since...late November (Thanksgiving reporting making it difficult to tell)?  Would there be some reason to have a lag on reporting today? Is it too hopeful to think we’re seeing the vaccine kick in for the at risk population?

I tend to give states a day or 2 to catch up after every holiday so likely a MLK blip
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

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30 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I tend to give states a day or 2 to catch up after every holiday so likely a MLK blip

Bah. I kind of forgot yesterday was a holiday for some. Kids have been home schooled since this year and our rotation at work is still odd, so holidays haven’t really registered with me in a while. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5575

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On 1/18/2021 at 8:59 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Charts for every state on this page

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/

Here is a better one, I knew I'd seen it but took a while to remember where

Each state with charts for New Cases/Tests per 100k people/Percent postive 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

 

This one is Covid vaccines by state (click on a state and get info by county)

https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/

This one is hospital capacity by state (again, click on a county and get detail by hospital)

https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-hospital-capacity/texas/48/

 

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14347

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4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Here is a better one, I knew I'd seen it but took a while to remember where

Each state with charts for New Cases/Tests per 100k people/Percent postive 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

 

This one is Covid vaccines by state (click on a state and get info by county)

https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/

This one is hospital capacity by state (again, click on a county and get detail by hospital)

https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-hospital-capacity/texas/48/

 

Apologies if this has been posted previously, but what typically is the average hospital capacity pre-covid for most places?

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I would think Herd Immunity rates continue to change alongside vaccination rate needs because we have had such a massive surge week-over-week of new cases in the country.  So estimates on what we need to achieve that national rate probably change day-to-day.  Today just happened to be Inauguration Day but it was also just another day in the midst of an 10-week surge that has been the deadliest of the entire pandemic to date.  Maybe this 10-week surge was the fault of today's inauguration and the media, but I think I somehow doubt that. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14344

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3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I would think Herd Immunity rates continue to change alongside vaccination rate needs because we have had such a massive surge week-over-week of new cases in the country.  So estimates on what we need to achieve that national rate probably change day-to-day.  Today just happened to be Inauguration Day but it was also just another day in the midst of an 10-week surge that has been the deadliest of the entire pandemic to date.  Maybe this 10-week surge was the fault of today's inauguration and the media, but I think I somehow doubt that. 

how can any think there will be herd immunity with all these mutated strains.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)

Did any of you even read the article? The article is actually criticizing the scientific community as well as.. let's go with "cloak roomers" (zomg!). 

"Once again, the Covid-19 health message is getting muddled. Even as officials and scientists urge the public to get vaccinated, they warn that after vaccination, we’ll still have to go on isolating and wearing masks.

It’s a mistake to oversimplify this way. We should be talking about using the vaccines to end the pandemic — not filling people with dread that they will be stuck with isolation and masks forever. The evidence is compelling that a strong, rapid vaccination campaign could render SARS-CoV-2 less of a threat than seasonal flu through building herd immunity."

also

"And yes, it is bad for people to live cut off from each other. “I have never seen my patients more miserable — I have never seen them more depressed, lonely, upset, more mentally ill, relapsing into substance abuse,” she says.

With people suffering emotionally, socially and financially, we don’t need more doom and gloom. We need a shared goal and a science-based message of hope for a livable future."

 

If you crybags had even read the first two paragraphs you'd realize the article is agreeing with you. Christ on a cracker. Bunch of teenage girls more interested in being outraged than actually reading.

Edited by BradInATX
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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Posted
17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Did any of you even read the article? The article is actually criticizing the scientific community as well as.. let's go with "cloak roomers" (zomg!). 

"Once again, the Covid-19 health message is getting muddled. Even as officials and scientists urge the public to get vaccinated, they warn that after vaccination, we’ll still have to go on isolating and wearing masks.

It’s a mistake to oversimplify this way. We should be talking about using the vaccines to end the pandemic — not filling people with dread that they will be stuck with isolation and masks forever. The evidence is compelling that a strong, rapid vaccination campaign could render SARS-CoV-2 less of a threat than seasonal flu through building herd immunity."

also

"And yes, it is bad for people to live cut off from each other. “I have never seen my patients more miserable — I have never seen them more depressed, lonely, upset, more mentally ill, relapsing into substance abuse,” she says.

With people suffering emotionally, socially and financially, we don’t need more doom and gloom. We need a shared goal and a science-based message of hope for a livable future."

 

If you crybags had even read the first two paragraphs you'd realize the article is agreeing with you. Christ on a cracker. Bunch of teenage girls more interested in being outraged than actually reading.

I’m guessing you’re not responding to me. I’m agreeing with the article just commenting on the interesting tone shift. 

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