Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Helobious 9821]

29 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

As a private school parent I was shocked to learn that public schools in our area are still virtual to this day. That's horrible, it will be going on 1 year in March. Thoughts and prayers to all those parents trying to WFH; last Spring was brutal in terms of actual learning and development that occurred on Zoom.

Where do you live? I think most all public schools in Texas are in person with the option for remote. Been like that since Sept/Oct.

[washparkhorn 9973]

Quote

As a private school parent I was shocked to learn that public schools in our area are still virtual to this day.

Note to prospective "private school parents" - reputable private schools will reject the children of any parent making this type of statement. They have no time to teach parents how to be better humans.

Of course, the prospective parent will blame the kid for his own callousness. 

Circle of Life.

Hakuna Matata

 

[bolverk 30333]

This was the best I could find on the status of school re-openings by state. Looks pretty comprehensive and you can hover over each state's individual orders.

https://ballotpedia.org/School_responses_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic_during_the_2020-2021_academic_year#Status_of_school_reopenings

[GRHorn 105]

More concisely stated than our last couple pages of yammering. 
 

 

[Okie State 3889]

I'm getting the vaccine regardless, but this sure seems like a really bad way to convince people on the fence to get it.

[Captainant 28547]

17 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

More concisely stated than our last couple pages of yammering. 
 

 

I mean, sure, if you're only thinking about yourself. It's moreso that we don't have data that shows that you won't still carry and transmit the virus after getting the vaccine. But as a medical professional, I know that you care most about health outcomes

[BradInATX 9208]

14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I mean, sure, if you're only thinking about yourself. It's moreso that we don't have data that shows that you won't still carry and transmit the virus after getting the vaccine. But as a medical professional, I know that you care most about health outcomes

 

Saw some stuff today that data shows that the mRNA vaccines do prevent spread at nearly the rate they prevent the virus (~90% I believe). Don't have a link anymore.

But, I'm not sure what cloud GR is yelling at. Who is saying that you have to hide in your bunker after the vaccine? I have seen some "we have to wait until herd immunity" which is stupid, but I think there's a general consensus formed around "we are going to start getting back to normal once everyone who wants the vaccine can get it - or sooner". That tweet is more of the overly-sensitive victim complex that some seem to have.

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[Hate 20249]

When there is no longer anyone that wants a vaccine waiting for it, we should open up 100% with no limitations.   

[Anastasis 23721]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Saw some stuff today that data shows that the mRNA vaccines do prevent spread at nearly the rate they prevent the virus (~90% I believe). Don't have a link anymore.

 

It's data out of Israel.  They have the best real world data at this point, which was part of their deal with Pfizer as I understand it.  Basically, Israel's pitch was "Prioritize the Tribe for vaccine delivery and we will let you collect and analyze all the real world data." A pre-print was leaked to an Israeli reporter, and other outlets picked it up.  There are some concerns that there is a testing bias among the vaccinated, and that the results may overstate the findings, but this is still a good indication.  If we have close to 90% shut down of transmission that is a very good thing. 

 

 

 Another thread in english...

 

[Anastasis 23721]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

When there is no longer anyone that wants a vaccine waiting for it, we should open up 100% with no limitations.   

Agree in general, but if you count children in this, we are looking at 2022 at the earliest.  In reality, once there are no longer any adults that want vaccination we are going to open up with only modest remaining restrictions focused on safety protocols in schools, imo.  

[Bevo 13899]

44 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Saw some stuff today that data shows that the mRNA vaccines do prevent spread at nearly the rate they prevent the virus (~90% I believe). Don't have a link anymore.

But, I'm not sure what cloud GR is yelling at. Who is saying that you have to hide in your bunker after the vaccine? I have seen some "we have to wait until herd immunity" which is stupid, but I think there's a general consensus formed around "we are going to start getting back to normal once everyone who wants the vaccine can get it - or sooner". That tweet is more of the overly-sensitive victim complex that some seem to have.

The government is saying that regardless ff vaccination status, to gain re-entry into the US you need a negative COVID test within 3 days of return. However, if you have tested positive, you can regain entry into the US after getting a doctor's note saying that you have recovered from COVID. I think the only way to interpret the regulation is that the government doesn't trust the vaccine and that it believes you have a smaller chance of getting COVID after already having COVID than you do after getting the vaccine. If the government thinks masks are necessary after vaccination and are restricting travel after vaccination, this gives ff the feeling that the government doesn't trust the vaccine. I think the government's decision is wrong, that it is detrimental to the US recovery, and that it is detrimental to vaccination efforts. And personally, I think the leaders in charge should be held accountable.

[Incredulity 11876]

27 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Agree in general, but if you count children in this, we are looking at 2022 at the earliest.  In reality, once there are no longer any adults that want vaccination we are going to open up with only modest remaining restrictions focused on safety protocols in schools, imo.  

huh..., I thought we were flattening the curve and preventing the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

The only way we don't open basically fully by June/July at the very latest is if there's some random spike around that time. Which is almost certainly not going to happen. The virus is rapidly running out of hosts. A crazy variant is always a possibility I guess, but I'm not going to stress about outlier type threats.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

The government is saying that regardless ff vaccination status, to gain re-entry into the US you need a negative COVID test within 3 days of return. However, if you have tested positive, you can regain entry into the US after getting a doctor's note saying that you have recovered from COVID. I think the only way to interpret the regulation is that the government doesn't trust the vaccine and that it believes you have a smaller chance of getting COVID after already having COVID than you do after getting the vaccine. If the government thinks masks are necessary after vaccination and are restricting travel after vaccination, this gives ff the feeling that the government doesn't trust the vaccine. I think the government's decision is wrong, that it is detrimental to the US recovery, and that it is detrimental to vaccination efforts. And personally, I think the leaders in charge should be held accountable.

 

It's February. We have vaccinated like 15-20% of the population. Settle down Beavis. If It's July and that's still happening, I'll be triggered right next to you.

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13899]

נדב איל

Nadav Eyal

 

Feb 18

 

פרסום ראשון: מחקר של בכירי משרד הבריאות ובכירים בפייזר (אני יודע, תיכף אגיע לזה): החיסון יעיל בכ-90% נגד הדבקה, כ-93% נגד אשפוזים ונגד תמותה. עושה שימוש במידע מותמם ולא אישי של המתחסנים בישראל, וב"מתחסנים" הכוונה היא לשבוע אחרי מנה שנייה. מתייחס לאמצע ינואר עד

 

Great information. Memorize it. Spread it around.

[BradInATX 9208]

[Anastasis 23721]

LOL.  The images in that tweet are screen caps of the leaked pre-print. 

[Bevo 13899]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

It's February. We have vaccinated like 15-20% of the population. Settle down Beavis. If It's July and that's still happening, I'll be triggered right next to you.

Ha, Ha. Triggered by me blaming the government for stupid policy decisions. So transparent. GTFO.

[Anastasis 23721]

Here is the translation though:

First publication: A study by senior Ministry of Health and Pfizer executives (I know, I'll get to that soon): The vaccine is about 90% effective against infection, about 93% against hospitalizations and against mortality. Uses classified and non-personal information of the vaccinators in Israel, and "vaccinators" refers to a week after a second dose. Refers to mid-January to February.

@ynetalerts

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Ha, Ha. Triggered by me blaming the government for stupid policy decisions. So transparent. GTFO.

 

You're mad about something that hasn't even happened. We are five weeks removed from the absolute worst of the pandemic and have fully vaccinated less than 10% of the population, yet here you are crying that the government is going to keep you in your house forever even though 1) Texas is basically fully open already and 2) The "until 2022" lockdown that you're so terrified of is like a year away and isn't going to happen. Nut up and stop whining about shit that hasn't happened and isn't going to happen. It's going to be OK.

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13899]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

 

You're mad about something that hasn't even happened. We are five weeks removed from the absolute worst of the pandemic and have fully vaccinated less than 10% of the population, yet here you are crying that the government is going to keep you in your house forever even though 1) Texas is basically fully open already and 2) it hasn't even happened yet and isn't going to. Grow up.

You are purposely missing the point. My point is that the government needs to change course and trust the vaccine for us to recover. And my point was in response to you stating, "Who is saying that you have to hide in your bunker after the vaccine?' The government has basically said this by their policies.

You say that it will come round at some point which is true because if it doesn't people will revolt. And you are triggered. It is alright. You are not the government and it isn't your job to white knight it.

[BradInATX 9208]

k

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

11 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Who is saying that you have to hide in your bunker after the vaccine?

Fauci implies it. It goes back to the argument about messaging and how shitty he is at it. Anything that isn't pro-"everyone get a vaccine because this is our best way out of this mess" should never pass through his mouth.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Fauci implies it. It goes back to the argument about messaging and how shitty he is at it. Anything that isn't pro-"everyone get a vaccine because this is our best way out of this mess" should never pass through his mouth.

Fauci doesn't really control anything. Bevo's acting like everyone in leadership is out there saying that we're going to be closed forever, because he really wants to be outraged and play victim.

Nobody that matters is saying that. This is all on the state level anyway and Texas is going to fully reopen as soon as is reasonable and probably before that. POTUS has been consistent saying he expects to be normal by summer or fall, which is a reasonable, safe promise that he probably knows is a slight undersell. I don't love his strategy of underselling things re:Covid whether it's timelines or the 100 million vaccines in 100 days (which was table stakes). But I understand it in today's world of gotcha politics.

But we talked about it earlier, I agree with you on Fauci. He's stepped all over his own dick numerous times on the time frame. If you're not comfortable talking about it in front of cameras and microphones, then stop going in front of them or say "we don't know, but I do know the faster we vaccinate people the faster we'll get back to normal" (which is what you're saying). I have some other issues with Fauci too. I think his obvious and public disdain for the prior administration is unprofessional and a little childish. Like I said, I'd like to see him in more of an operations role than a figurehead role.

Fauci, like everything, has become politicized. For some, everything he says or does is an opportunity to feel victimized and outraged. For others, he walks on water because he stood up to Trump. The truth is somewhere in the middle. He's good at some things and bad at others. 

End of day though anyone who thinks that Fauci is going to keep schools and commerce closed for another year are being silly. Nothing has changed. This is America. Fauci doesn't set policy. Corporations do. We'll be 100% open by July except maybe international travel, and that won't be dictated by us.

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[Newdoc 3511]

I stopped listening to Fauci months ago and someone needs to stick a sock in Osterholm's mouth. Osterholm is the same guy who predicted Ebola was going to go airborne and got printed for it. He makes for good doomsday fodder and rests on his past accomplishments and title. He brings press and likely research money but he needs to shut up at this point.

There are so many good scientist and public health people that need to be out in front of people more than the fodder the past and current administration are putting out there.

It takes some digging but you can find some well qualified people out there saying reasonable things with good data.

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I stopped listening to Fauci months ago and someone needs to stick a sock in Osterholm's mouth. Osterholm is the same guy who predicted Ebola was going to go airborne and got printed for it. He makes for good doomsday fodder and rests on his past accomplishments and title. He brings press and likely research money but he needs to shut up at this point.

There are so many good scientist and public health people that need to be out in front of people more than the fodder the past and current administration are putting out there.

It takes some digging but you can find some well qualified people out there saying reasonable things with good data.

If you took the opinions of all of the regular participants on this thread and threw out the extreme outliers on one side or another to come up with "surly consensus", it would have been far more accurate through this entire thing than the majority of the Twitter and media superstars out there fighting for attention and retweets.

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[Johnny Sack 8397]

13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Agree in general, but if you count children in this, we are looking at 2022 at the earliest.  In reality, once there are no longer any adults that want vaccination we are going to open up with only modest remaining restrictions focused on safety protocols in schools, imo.  

I mean the flu is a lot more deadly than Covid is for children. Once everyone who wants a vaccine can get it, fuck any restrictions.

[Bevo 13899]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Fauci doesn't really control anything. Bevo's acting like everyone in leadership is out there saying that we're going to be closed forever, because he really wants to be outraged and play victim.

 

The highlighted is wrong. In fact, I said if the government continued its current policy of requiring masks and tests regardless of vaccination status that people would revolt so of course eventually the government will have to come around.

And pointing out that I am outraged and playing victim is dumb as fuck. I barely even care and was solely responding to your rhetoric that no one is requiring vaccinated people to stay in bunkers. Obviously, your statement isn't true because currently the restrictions for those who have been vaccinated are the same as for those who haven't been vaccinated. And your gaslighting and ad hominem doesn't change this fact.

Sorry but not sorry for pointing out your outrage at me daring to fault the current administration for its current COVID policy. And sorry but not sorry for your outrage at me for laughing at your white knighting of the admin. The government, I contend is in error by continuing to downplay the effectiveness of the vaccines in an effort to damper the number of new cases. This error will undoubtedly cause the populace as a whole to question the effectiveness of the vaccine, will keep many from getting vaccinated, and will slow the US' recovery from the virus. If you consider pointing out the error of the administration as an affront, and consider me a heel and scoundrel to be cursed by the darkness of a million moons for having said what I said, I'm okay with that. Just don't lie, create strawmen and randomly insert me into the discussion because your feelings are hurt.

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Bevo

[GRHorn 105]

14 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

But, I'm not sure what cloud GR is yelling at. Who is saying that you have to hide in your bunker after the vaccine? 

 

[Telegraph_it 3379]

7 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

[BradInATX 9208]

54 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

 

Well Cuomo is a blowhard idiot and we've parsed Fauci pretty well here.

But fair enough. I guess I should have said "who that actually sets policy are you yelling at?". Ya'll do a lot of getting upset at things that don't really matter. Covid policy happens on the state and local level and Fauci has no say in any of that. The only thing the feds control is basically air travel and that's going to change pretty rapidly once numbers go down and shots go up. 

Plus I was just at the Hyatt Hill Country in your neck of the woods and San Antonio is like "Covid? Que?" anyway. Ya'll already beat Covid out there - congrats!

Edited February 23, 2021 by BradInATX

[GRHorn 105]

21 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Well Cuomo is a blowhard idiot and we've parsed Fauci pretty well here.

But fair enough. I guess I should have said "who that actually sets policy are you yelling at?". Ya'll do a lot of getting upset at things that don't really matter. Covid policy happens on the state and local level and Fauci has no say in any of that. The only thing the feds control is basically air travel and that's going to change pretty rapidly once numbers go down and shots go up. 

Plus I was just at the Hyatt Hill Country in your neck of the woods and San Antonio is like "Covid? Que?" anyway. Ya'll already beat Covid out there - congrats!

I know. I didn’t realize there were people who avoided eating inside still. Except my younger brother in Austin. He’ll only eat outside when people are in town and try to meet up with him. I guess he’s single so he’s able to stay more isolated.
 

With 4 kids in school and basketball and gymnastics and everything I hardly think about it outside of when I leave my mask in my truck and have to go back and get it. 

[bolverk 30333]

Read this last night and feel like it's a reasonably convincing -- and confidence-building -- outline of what to expect over the next year.

The Most Likely Timeline for Life to Return to Normal
An uncertain spring, an amazing summer, a cautious fall and winter, and then, finally, relief.

The end of the coronavirus pandemic is on the horizon at last, but the timeline for actually getting there feels like it shifts daily, with updates about viral variants, vaccine logistics, and other important variables seeming to push back the finish line or scoot it forward. When will we be able to finally live our lives again?

Pandemics are hard to predict accurately, but we have enough information to make some confident guesses. A useful way to think about what’s ahead is to go season by season. In short: Life this spring will not be substantially different from the past year; summer could, miraculously, be close to normal; and next fall and winter could bring either continued improvement or a moderate backslide, followed by a near-certain return to something like pre-pandemic life.

Here, in more detail, is what Americans can expect daily life to look like for the next four(-ish) seasons.

Spoiler

 

SPRING 2021
For the most part, daily life will continue to be far from normal for the next few months. Normal is of course a slippery word, given that many Americans have had to report to work or have chosen to dine out, travel, and do all sorts of things that others have avoided. But whatever people have not been doing for the past year, they can expect to keep not doing it this spring.

It’s unlikely that enough people will get vaccinated in the spring to restore normalcy. In fact, experts fear that the pandemic could get much worse in the near term, because variants of the virus that are more contagious or vaccine-resistant than the original version have begun circulating in the United States. The damage those variants will do is still unknown; “March to May is the mystery,” as my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote earlier this month.

The good news, though, is that even with these variants, existing vaccines appear to reduce the risk of severe illness, meaning more and more people will be protected as vaccinations continue. And vaccines can change individuals’ risk calculus. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, told me that in a month or so, in the absence of a variant-driven surge, he’d probably be comfortable going to a friend’s house for a drink, mask-free and indoors, if he and his friend were both fully vaccinated. “As we get into late spring, a lot of that stuff—the smaller gatherings of vaccinated people—I think starts becoming quite possible,” Jha said.

SUMMER 2021
Whatever happens in the spring, the summer should be a sublime departure from what Americans have lived through so far. As my colleague James Hamblin wrote last week, “In most of the U.S., the summer could feel … ‘normal,’” even “revelatory.”

“Barring some variant that is just really crazy, I expect the summer to be a lot like the summer of 2019,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine, told me. Based on the drop-off in cases and hospitalizations over the past few weeks, he thinks life could even be close to normal as soon as sometime in May.

Other experts I consulted were slightly less optimistic, but they generally agreed that at some point between June and September, the combination of widespread vaccinations and warmer weather would likely make many activities much safer, including having friends and family over indoors, taking public transit, being in a workplace, dining inside restaurants, and traveling domestically (whether for work, visiting loved ones, or a vacation).

The safest way to phase these activities back in will be for people to gradually go from smaller, private social settings (such as a friend’s house) to bigger, public ones (such as a restaurant)—which is also what many will probably feel most comfortable with. “People will slowly expand the social world that they engage in, building [their] pod back up,” predicts Emily Oster, an economist at Brown who writes about everyday pandemic decision making in her newsletter ParentData.

Jha, for instance, expects to host 20 or so friends for a Fourth of July barbecue in his backyard, with every adult vaccinated and no one having to wear a mask. He imagines himself being comfortable eating indoors at a restaurant later on in the summer, provided it’s not packed and the ventilation is decent.

The summer will still have its limitations, though. The experts I spoke with didn’t foresee the return of indoor concerts, full attendance at sporting events, or high levels of international travel.

They did, however, expect that Americans will be able to ease up on mask wearing and social distancing in other contexts. “I think when people are vaccinated themselves, they will start letting their guard down, but it will also genuinely be safer from a public-health perspective,” said Jennifer Beam Dowd, a professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford and the chief scientific officer of Dear Pandemic, a COVID-19 public-education campaign. Noymer’s prediction is that masking will be necessary in public settings until every American has at least been offered a vaccine, at which point he figures he would be okay with repealing mask mandates.

Even once these precautions are no longer strictly necessary, many people will probably keep up some of them, opting to wear a mask, say, on public transportation or in a grocery store. Oster thinks that while certain activities should become much safer over the summer, many people might not be comfortable resuming them until the end of the year or even later.

FALL/WINTER 2021–22
Even if the summer feels like the end of the pandemic, it could turn out to be more of a temporary reprieve.

Most of the U.S. population should be vaccinated by the fall, but some resurgence of the virus seems likely in the colder months. “It won’t be as bad as this winter, but I don’t know if it’s going to be pretty bad or [if] just a few people will get it,” Noymer said.

Thankfully, the latter scenario seems more likely, and could still allow for additional normalcy; indoor concerts might even come back. “The summer might be a little early for really large crowds,” Dowd said. “I see the autumn as the important turning point for those kinds of mass gatherings.”

This scenario might result in isolated viral flare-ups, but vaccines should significantly reduce the likelihood that anyone who gets infected would end up in the hospital, and could also make them less likely to spread the virus.

Another outcome seems less probable but more troubling: Whether because a variant ends up evading existing vaccines or because infections surge among unvaccinated people, cases might climb again. Even after a wonderful summer, a rise in cases could necessitate a reversion to many of the precautions from earlier in the pandemic, even if it doesn’t require full-on lockdowns. “I’m not saying that the return of the masks and working from home and all the crap that we hate is guaranteed,” Noymer said. “But if it does return, it won’t be in the summer. It’ll be in the fall.”

Thankfully, though, if stubborn variants do circulate, new vaccines should be able to tame them relatively quickly. Adjusting an existing vaccine recipe could take only a few months, meaning that the disruption to daily life would not be as drawn out as what Americans have lived through already.

SPRING/SUMMER 2022
Beyond next winter, experts’ predictions are blessedly simple: Life in the warmer months of 2022 should be normal, or at least whatever qualifies as normal post-pandemic. The virus will still exist, but one possibility is that it will be less likely to make people severely ill and that it will, like the flu, circulate primarily in the colder months; some people would still die from COVID-19, but the virus wouldn’t rage out of control again. Meanwhile, Americans should be able to do most, if not all, of the things that they missed so much in 2020 and 2021, mask- and worry-free.

Of course, this dreamy era is still more than a year away, and some unforeseen obstacle could delay the resumption of normalcy. Jha said he couldn’t picture what that might be, though. After a year spent gaming out how bad the pandemic could get, he can finally see ahead to a time when there are no more catastrophes to imagine.

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Even if the summer feels like the end of the pandemic, it could turn out to be more of a temporary reprieve.

Nah, fam. Full Mad Max if this happens. 

 

[Anastasis 23721]

Man this is like the trifecta guys. PFE vax shows high first dose protection @ 21 days, prevention of both asymptomatic and symptomatic disease (fuck your transmissions), and covers an area where B1117 was primary variant in circulation...

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399

Methods: The SIREN study is a prospective cohort study among staff working in publicly funded hospitals. Baseline risk factors, vaccination status (from 8/12/2020-5/2/2021), and symptoms are recorded at 2 weekly intervals and all SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and antibody test results documented. A mixed effect proportional hazards frailty model using a Poisson distribution was used to calculate hazard ratios to compare time to infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated participants to estimate the impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine on all (asymptomatic and symptomatic) infection.

Findings: Vaccine coverage was 89% on 5/2/2021. Significantly lower coverage was associated with prior infection (aOR 0.59 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.64), female (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82), aged under 35 years, being from minority ethnic groups (especially Black, aOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.21-0.32), porters/security guards (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.90),or midwife (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97), and living in more deprived neighbourhoods (IMD 1 (most) vs. 5 (least) (aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.87). A single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine demonstrated vaccine effectiveness of 72% (95% CI 58-86) 21 days after first dose and 86% (95% CI 76-97) seven days after two doses in the antibody negative cohort.

Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that the BNT162b2 vaccine effectively prevents both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection in working age adults; this cohort was vaccinated when the dominant variant in circulation was B1.1.7 and demonstrates effectiveness against this variant.

[BradInATX 9208]

Read this last night and feel like it's a reasonably convincing -- and confidence-building -- outline of what to expect over the next year.
The Most Likely Timeline for Life to Return to Normal
An uncertain spring, an amazing summer, a cautious fall and winter, and then, finally, relief.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is on the horizon at last, but the timeline for actually getting there feels like it shifts daily, with updates about viral variants, vaccine logistics, and other important variables seeming to push back the finish line or scoot it forward. When will we be able to finally live our lives again?
Pandemics are hard to predict accurately, but we have enough information to make some confident guesses. A useful way to think about what’s ahead is to go season by season. In short: Life this spring will not be substantially different from the past year; summer could, miraculously, be close to normal; and next fall and winter could bring either continued improvement or a moderate backslide, followed by a near-certain return to something like pre-pandemic life.
Here, in more detail, is what Americans can expect daily life to look like for the next four(-ish) seasons.
Spoiler

 
SPRING 2021
For the most part, daily life will continue to be far from normal for the next few months. Normal is of course a slippery word, given that many Americans have had to report to work or have chosen to dine out, travel, and do all sorts of things that others have avoided. But whatever people have not been doing for the past year, they can expect to keep not doing it this spring.
It’s unlikely that enough people will get vaccinated in the spring to restore normalcy. In fact, experts fear that the pandemic could get much worse in the near term, because variants of the virus that are more contagious or vaccine-resistant than the original version have begun circulating in the United States. The damage those variants will do is still unknown; “March to May is the mystery,” as my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote earlier this month.
The good news, though, is that even with these variants, existing vaccines appear to reduce the risk of severe illness, meaning more and more people will be protected as vaccinations continue. And vaccines can change individuals’ risk calculus. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, told me that in a month or so, in the absence of a variant-driven surge, he’d probably be comfortable going to a friend’s house for a drink, mask-free and indoors, if he and his friend were both fully vaccinated. “As we get into late spring, a lot of that stuff—the smaller gatherings of vaccinated people—I think starts becoming quite possible,” Jha said.
SUMMER 2021
Whatever happens in the spring, the summer should be a sublime departure from what Americans have lived through so far. As my colleague James Hamblin wrote last week, “In most of the U.S., the summer could feel … ‘normal,’” even “revelatory.”
“Barring some variant that is just really crazy, I expect the summer to be a lot like the summer of 2019,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine, told me. Based on the drop-off in cases and hospitalizations over the past few weeks, he thinks life could even be close to normal as soon as sometime in May.
Other experts I consulted were slightly less optimistic, but they generally agreed that at some point between June and September, the combination of widespread vaccinations and warmer weather would likely make many activities much safer, including having friends and family over indoors, taking public transit, being in a workplace, dining inside restaurants, and traveling domestically (whether for work, visiting loved ones, or a vacation).
The safest way to phase these activities back in will be for people to gradually go from smaller, private social settings (such as a friend’s house) to bigger, public ones (such as a restaurant)—which is also what many will probably feel most comfortable with. “People will slowly expand the social world that they engage in, building [their] pod back up,” predicts Emily Oster, an economist at Brown who writes about everyday pandemic decision making in her newsletter ParentData.
Jha, for instance, expects to host 20 or so friends for a Fourth of July barbecue in his backyard, with every adult vaccinated and no one having to wear a mask. He imagines himself being comfortable eating indoors at a restaurant later on in the summer, provided it’s not packed and the ventilation is decent.
The summer will still have its limitations, though. The experts I spoke with didn’t foresee the return of indoor concerts, full attendance at sporting events, or high levels of international travel.
They did, however, expect that Americans will be able to ease up on mask wearing and social distancing in other contexts. “I think when people are vaccinated themselves, they will start letting their guard down, but it will also genuinely be safer from a public-health perspective,” said Jennifer Beam Dowd, a professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford and the chief scientific officer of Dear Pandemic, a COVID-19 public-education campaign. Noymer’s prediction is that masking will be necessary in public settings until every American has at least been offered a vaccine, at which point he figures he would be okay with repealing mask mandates.
Even once these precautions are no longer strictly necessary, many people will probably keep up some of them, opting to wear a mask, say, on public transportation or in a grocery store. Oster thinks that while certain activities should become much safer over the summer, many people might not be comfortable resuming them until the end of the year or even later.
FALL/WINTER 2021–22
Even if the summer feels like the end of the pandemic, it could turn out to be more of a temporary reprieve.
Most of the U.S. population should be vaccinated by the fall, but some resurgence of the virus seems likely in the colder months. “It won’t be as bad as this winter, but I don’t know if it’s going to be pretty bad or [if] just a few people will get it,” Noymer said.
Thankfully, the latter scenario seems more likely, and could still allow for additional normalcy; indoor concerts might even come back. “The summer might be a little early for really large crowds,” Dowd said. “I see the autumn as the important turning point for those kinds of mass gatherings.”
This scenario might result in isolated viral flare-ups, but vaccines should significantly reduce the likelihood that anyone who gets infected would end up in the hospital, and could also make them less likely to spread the virus.
Another outcome seems less probable but more troubling: Whether because a variant ends up evading existing vaccines or because infections surge among unvaccinated people, cases might climb again. Even after a wonderful summer, a rise in cases could necessitate a reversion to many of the precautions from earlier in the pandemic, even if it doesn’t require full-on lockdowns. “I’m not saying that the return of the masks and working from home and all the crap that we hate is guaranteed,” Noymer said. “But if it does return, it won’t be in the summer. It’ll be in the fall.”
Thankfully, though, if stubborn variants do circulate, new vaccines should be able to tame them relatively quickly. Adjusting an existing vaccine recipe could take only a few months, meaning that the disruption to daily life would not be as drawn out as what Americans have lived through already.
SPRING/SUMMER 2022
Beyond next winter, experts’ predictions are blessedly simple: Life in the warmer months of 2022 should be normal, or at least whatever qualifies as normal post-pandemic. The virus will still exist, but one possibility is that it will be less likely to make people severely ill and that it will, like the flu, circulate primarily in the colder months; some people would still die from COVID-19, but the virus wouldn’t rage out of control again. Meanwhile, Americans should be able to do most, if not all, of the things that they missed so much in 2020 and 2021, mask- and worry-free.
Of course, this dreamy era is still more than a year away, and some unforeseen obstacle could delay the resumption of normalcy. Jha said he couldn’t picture what that might be, though. After a year spent gaming out how bad the pandemic could get, he can finally see ahead to a time when there are no more catastrophes to imagine.
 

 

This seems conservative to me. One of the experts says he's willing to have a maskless 4th of July party as long as it's outside and everyone is vaccinated. As if that's some sort of step forward. The data pretty much shows that said 4th of July party would be fairly safe even mid-pandemic.

If summer passes with everyone having has an opportunity to get vaccinated and people can't go to a basketball game or to a show at Stubb's or fly overseas, there are going to be a lot of pissed off people. You're going to lose the sort of moderate contingent that understands the reason we've done what we did for the past year, but also expects "once the olds and beetuses are protected no more lockdowns" to be the endzone. If states or cities start moving the goalposts because of the nebulous lurking sceptre of "variants!" or because kids (a group with near zero risk from Covid) aren't vaccinated yet or because of "long Covid" (which smells like maybe 10% reality and 90% media hype and hypochondria), there are going to be a lot of pissed off people. I'll be one of them.

Fortunately I don't think it's the goal of POTUS or most states outside of California to do that.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Once everyone has an opportunity to get the vaccine, and maybe 4 weeks after, it’s going to be full open. Meaning it will be up to the person. Mask mandates will be removed (Stay home, go out, get a vaccine, don’t get a vaccine, you do you) I’m guessing some states will do this before others. 

 

[Message Board User 12406]

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Once everyone has an opportunity to get the vaccine, and maybe 4 weeks after, it’s going to be full open. Meaning it will be up to the person. Mask mandates will be removed (Stay home, go out, get a vaccine, don’t get a vaccine, you do you) I’m guessing some states will do this before others. 

 

Some states have already done this.

Hell, a little over 2 weeks ago, Iowa lifted all restrictions.

And since then cases have, well...see for yourself.

Iowa COVID-19 Information - Case Counts

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Once everyone has an opportunity to get the vaccine, and maybe 4 weeks after, it’s going to be full open.

I agree, however, there is a massive amount of people who won't vaccinate. Spend 5 minutes on social media and you'll find hundreds of thousands of them.

Frankly, I hate it for the handful of people who can't be vaccinated (my MIL for example). But anyone who doesn't get the vaccine is rolling the dice and I'm fine with that. Just don't ask me to mask up/shut down because you think Bill Gates is putting tracking chips in the vaccine. 

[Guest Lobo]

Could we just tell the stupid people it's a booster shot for their polio vaccination?  

We're just not gonna get to herd immunity by Memorial Day like people think because of all the stupid fucks in this country.  It became okay to be stupid, to advertise your stupidity, and even to let stupid people have a seat at the table when it comes to important shit.  Dunning-Krueger just used to be this anecdotal term/study you heard about and then forgot about.  I didn't realize it was gonna become the prevailing doctrine of my country.    

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

more than 500,000 Americans dead. damn.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

7 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I didn't realize it was gonna become the prevailing doctrine of my country. 

It's been there for a long while. Social Media just gives them a megaphone. Most morons just kept their moronic lives to themselves and their friends/family. Thanks for nothing, Zuckerberg.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

more than 500,000 Americans dead. damn.

 

I HOPE THAT BAT WAS DELICIOUS FUCKING MORON

[Guest Lobo]

I'm still hearing disturbing reports of assaults of Asian-Americans all over the country, even here in Texas.  

But nobody is fucking with the Congress Avenue Bats?  They'll be back in a few weeks, I say we give them a homecoming they'll never forget! 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

25 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I HOPE THAT BAT WAS DELICIOUS FUCKING MORON

i hope we invest in things like scientific research and pandemic response teams as well as decide we want leaders willing to attack these threats head-on instead of pretending they don't exist so that fewer people die. 20% of the world's deaths, 4% of the world's population...what an awful indictment on us as a country. hopefully iron sharpens iron and we come out of it better. TBD.

[Guest Lobo]

Who knew the least harmful thing about the episode where Anthony Bourdain is eating at a Wet Market would be the two grams of heroin?  

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

i hope we invest in things like scientific research and pandemic response teams

We do. Here's the CDC's Operating Plan for 2019 / 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/fy-2020-cdc-operating-plan.pdf

In 2020, they spent $622,372,000 on "Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases" and $850,200,000 "Public Health Preparedness and Response"

That's almost 1.5 billion dollars. 

[XYZ 2154]

43 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I HOPE THAT BAT WAS DELICIOUS FUCKING MORON

You serious?

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

29 minutes ago, XYZ said:

You serious?

Rarely.