Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Newdoc 3,429]

On 2/24/2021 at 8:01 PM, gmr548 said:

The hard no’s are largely white muh freedom q anon dipshits.

The no’s also come from a wide swath of ethnicities. There are people who are rightfully nervous about what the government wants them to do. In this case, that anxiety is unfounded but still a big barrier. And then socioeconomics and education also creates barriers to vaccination.

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210202/black-vaccine-hesitancy-rooted-in-mistrust-doubts

[Anastasis 23,375]

6 hours ago, Newdoc said:

The no’s also come from a wide swath of ethnicities.

Easier for people to frame the topic in the cloak of their political choosing. 

[dcar00 14,023]

On 2/24/2021 at 8:09 PM, Enchubben said:

Didn’t believe it until I saw Washington. That’s probably real. 

Rivals the outdoor, indoor seating tents in CA.

that can't be real.  no f'n way.

[babysdaddy 2,711]

Back to a 7 day lockdown for the kiwis for one case

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/27/new-zealand-auckland-to-go-into-seven-day-covid-lockdown

I mean, I guess if you’ve come this far just keep it going but what have they done to their economy? Are their schools closed too?

[dcar00 14,023]

5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I mean, I guess if you’ve come this far just keep it going but what have they done to their economy? Are their schools closed too?

their economy is likely mostly tourism(and service, related to tourism) so its pretty much fucked already is my guess.

[XYZ 2,154]

10 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Back to a 7 day lockdown for the kiwis for one case

Fuck that.

[Armybrat 40,678]

[gmr548 16,463]

21 hours ago, Newdoc said:

The no’s also come from a wide swath of ethnicities. There are people who are rightfully nervous about what the government wants them to do. In this case, that anxiety is unfounded but still a big barrier. And then socioeconomics and education also creates barriers to vaccination.

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210202/black-vaccine-hesitancy-rooted-in-mistrust-doubts

This article certainly touches on an issue worth talking about, but it is neary all anecdotal and doesn't really refute what I said.

The breakout from the December poll the article references, the one piece of actual data included, is below. Note what group is at the top and think about what sub-group in that category is driving that number. Also, in simple numerical terms, think about how much larger 42 percent of Republicans is (42 percent of ~45 percent of the population is ~18-20 percent of the country) compared to 35 percent of black people (35 percent of 13 percent is ~5 percent of the country).

Also note the results of this civiqs tracking poll https://civiqs.com/results/coronavirus_vaccine?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true. You'll see that white Republicans have been remarkably consistent at a little over 40 percent straight up "no." Another 14 percent unsure most recently; though that number is fortunately trending down. The hard no's are entrenched though. Compare this to 15 percent and 16 percent unsure for black people, and 19 percent no/11 percent unsure for hispanic people, both of which are trending downward over time in terms of no's and unsure. Again, numerically, realize how much larger 40+ percent of Republicans is than either or even both of those smaller proportions of those smaller groups. While the unsure numbers appear to be trending down and coming around to the shot across all categories, and even no's among people of color are trending down, it is extremely obvious where most of the truly entrenched "fuck no I am not getting the vaccine" types are clustered. 

Also, have to include some generational smack true to Surly form: age 30-49, come on Gen X/late Millennials. 

 

[Enchubben 5,509]

I just can’t accept the results of that survey given that I am surrounded by republicans on a daily basis and have yet to meet a single one that won’t get the vaccine when it’s available to them.

[gmr548 16,463]

Just now, Enchubben said:

I just can’t accept the results of that survey given that I am surrounded by republicans on a daily basis and have yet to meet a single one that won’t get the vaccine when it’s available to them.

Yeah, I mean 40 percent is still a minority. And we also know based on various surveys that it is concentrated amongst rural and less educated. If by surrounded by Republicans you mean in a white collar professional setting and/or based in a major metro area, the unsure/fuck no figure is likely lower. The data points to a pretty specific subset that is, ultimately, a small slice of the population. Non-trivial, but small.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

I know one person that isn’t going to get the vaccine. Went to UT, smart guy, but has no balls and his wife doesn’t want him to because of something about a blood disorder that’s happened in a few people. 

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

I would like to see a more current survey. That one was late Nov/early December. Been a lot more shots in the arms since then.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Johnny Sack

[bolverk 29,359]

58 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I would like to see a more current survey. That one was late Nov/early December. Been a lot more shots in the arms since then.

Same poll from January shows some improvement. Over time, I would suspect that hesitancy will continue to fall.

[BradInATX 9,208]

This is why making blanket statements based off of your feelings and not science like "schools don't spread Covid!" is risky.

https://www.americanscientist.org/blog/macroscope/does-in-person-schooling-contribute-to-covid-19-spread

These findings would support normal school once our community spread numbers are low for good. But as most people who do the majority of breathing through our noses already knew, "Covid doesn't spread in schools!" has always been a ridiculous assertion.

[gmr548 16,463]

I would like to see a more current survey. That one was late Nov/early December. Been a lot more shots in the arms since then.

The other one I linked is a tracking pill with more recent data. I only showed the December survey because it was the one actual piece of data in the link used.

[Newdoc 3,429]

10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

The breakout from the December poll the article references, the one piece of actual data included, is below.

That poll and who actually gets vaccinated are going to be two different things. It doesn’t match up with historical vaccination rates when ethnicity is evaluated independent of other factors.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5824643/

What people say and what they ultimately do can be very different things.

[BradInATX 9,208]

I wonder if anyone from the constantly shrieking about schools being closed crowd will address the data I posted that indicates school does create virus spread or if they'll ignore it for a few days and then resume shrieking.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

I wonder if anyone from the constantly shrieking about schools being closed crowd will address the data I posted that indicates school does create virus spread or if they'll ignore it for a few days and then resume shrieking.

Ok cool. Hook ‘em.


Those shrieking about schools being closed likely have kids in school (I do) since September just don’t want to hear about it in upcoming years on how far behind certain areas of the country are because they lacked in school learning... despite kids who live in the same state were able to receive in person instruction basically all year.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

41 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I wonder if anyone from the constantly shrieking about schools being closed crowd will address the data I posted that indicates school does create virus spread or if they'll ignore it for a few days and then resume shrieking.

I’ve personally never said that schools didn’t spread COVID, but I don’t see anything in what you posted that makes me think they should be closed. Schools need to be open with option of of remote learning for those that choose to opt out. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

15 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I’ve personally never said that schools didn’t spread COVID, but I don’t see anything in what you posted that makes me think they should be closed. Schools need to be open with option of of remote learning for those that choose to opt out. 

That's fine, and that's an argument that I think is reasonable. I'm not even saying schools should be closed necessarily.

But it's been obvious the whole time that the argument that thousands of teenagers in a building with shared air isn't going to spread some Covid around has been very obviously stupid. If you want to approach the argument from a "the risk is worth the benefit" stance, that's an argument you can make and defend. But it's always been obviously disingenuous when people try to say that schools aren't a vector. 

[Anastasis 23,375]

Imagine reading this headline and thinking that you have a clue as to how to craft public health policy. 

Two new well-designed studies indicate that in-person schooling does not contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission when baseline community spread is low, but does when it is high.

[XYZ 2,154]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Two new well-designed studies indicate that in-person schooling does not contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission when baseline community spread is low, but does when it is high.

Shocking.

[B00M 6,278]

12 hours ago, BradInATX said:

This is why making blanket statements based off of your feelings and not science like "schools don't spread Covid!" is risky.

https://www.americanscientist.org/blog/macroscope/does-in-person-schooling-contribute-to-covid-19-spread

These findings would support normal school once our community spread numbers are low for good. But as most people who do the majority of breathing through our noses already knew, "Covid doesn't spread in schools!" has always been a ridiculous assertion.

The cited studies dont appear to try to break it down by age at all. We've known for a year that spread is age dependent. Elementary schools should be open regardless of community numbers. Middle schools and high schools, sure, open and close based on community spread. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522

[BradInATX 9,208]

I guess I'll be waiting awhile. For those of you that have the capacity to read past the headline, I'd suggest reading the Calder study where they show that schools being open correlates with an increase in community spread of 30+ percent of one SD.

[BradInATX 9,208]

The cited studies dont appear to try to break it down by age at all. We've known for a year that spread is age dependent. Elementary schools should be open regardless of community numbers. Middle schools and high schools, sure, open and close based on community spread. 
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522

Totally fair, and I agree.

[Newdoc 3,429]

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Two new well-designed studies indicate that in-person schooling does not contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission when baseline community spread is low, but does when it is high.

This also reminds me how CBS news was freaking out this morning about Covid testing numbers in decline. Imagine that, infections decline and we test less because there are less people getting sick. There is no standard surveillance that requires we test millions of people every day. Set up random testing for asymptomatic cases and surveillance for new variants? Sure, but that will become less needed as we approach herd immunity. 

I’m thinking that the 24 hour news cycle is perhaps one of the worst things that has happened to our nation.

[Newdoc 3,429]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

The cited studies dont appear to try to break it down by age at all. We've known for a year that spread is age dependent.

It’s amazing how cases take off once you hit the teenage years. Little kids just aren’t good vectors for Covid like they are for the flu. 

[Armybrat 40,678]

3 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

It’s amazing how cases take off once you hit the teenage years. Little kids just aren’t good vectors for Covid like they are for the flu. 

Juvenile snot should be investigated as a Covid virus suppressant.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Armybrat

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

18 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I’m thinking that the 24 hour news cycle is perhaps one of the worst things that has happened to our nation.

When combined with Twitter/Facebook, it's a race to the bottom.

[Armybrat 40,678]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

When combined with Twitter/Facebook, it's a race to the bottom.

Don’t forget Nextdoor.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Yeah. I agree, this thread is a pretty good example of what happens when a bunch of people do nothing but post tweets and shriek about stuff.

 

[Viper 12,011]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

This also reminds me how CBS news was freaking out this morning about Covid testing numbers in decline. Imagine that, infections decline and we test less because there are less people getting sick. There is no standard surveillance that requires we test millions of people every day. Set up random testing for asymptomatic cases and surveillance for new variants? Sure, but that will become less needed as we approach herd immunity. 

I’m thinking that the 24 hour news cycle is perhaps one of the worst things that has happened to our nation.

plus what good is testing that takes 3-4 days to return a result?

[Armybrat 40,678]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah. I agree, this thread is a pretty good example of what happens when a bunch of people do nothing but post tweets and shriek about stuff.

 

 

[GRHorn 105]

12 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I wonder if anyone from the constantly shrieking about schools being closed crowd will address the data I posted that indicates school does create virus spread or if they'll ignore it for a few days and then resume shrieking.

I never said there was no virus spread. I said it was decreased relative to the adult population. It’s all a risk benefit analysis.
 

The side that has had schools completely closed for over a year is demonstrably wrong. 
 

I guess I’ll stay shrieking 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

I never said there was no virus spread. I said it was decreased relative to the adult population. It’s all a risk benefit analysis.
 

The side that has had schools completely closed for over a year is demonstrably wrong. 
 

I guess I’ll stay shrieking 

I didn't really consider you to be part of #TeamShriek but if you want to be in the club, I'm not stopping you.

[Anastasis 23,375]

3 hours ago, B00M said:

The cited studies dont appear to try to break it down by age at all. We've known for a year that spread is age dependent. 

 

Nor do they account for risk mitigation strategies in schools.  The exchange on this topic is what it looks like when you have a policy in search of data, rather than data driven policy.  *Searches google to find picture of a high school hallway in Georgia* 

A further data limitation is that we do not have good information on what is happening inside schools or other community institutions.39 In particular, there are no systematic data collected about strategies that schools or school districts employ to mitigate contagion such as mask requirements, temperature checks, social distancing among students and teachers, and other risk mitigation strategies. Such risk mitigation strategies are thought to be influential in determining COVID spread in schools (Guthrie et al., 2020). Clearly the collection of this type of information would enhance the ability to understand the role instructional modality might play in COVID spread and would be important for understanding how to mitigate risk in the case of future disease outbreaks that make in-person schooling a risky endeavor.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Nor do they account for risk mitigation strategies in schools.  The exchange on this topic is what it looks like when you have a policy in search of data, rather than data driven policy.  *Searches google to find picture of a high school hallway in Georgia* 

A further data limitation is that we do not have good information on what is happening inside schools or other community institutions.39 In particular, there are no systematic data collected about strategies that schools or school districts employ to mitigate contagion such as mask requirements, temperature checks, social distancing among students and teachers, and other risk mitigation strategies. Such risk mitigation strategies are thought to be influential in determining COVID spread in schools (Guthrie et al., 2020). Clearly the collection of this type of information would enhance the ability to understand the role instructional modality might play in COVID spread and would be important for understanding how to mitigate risk in the case of future disease outbreaks that make in-person schooling a risky endeavor.

 

"I prefer my studies based off of theoretical perfect-world mitigation scenarios, not what's actually happening in the community"

- Statsguy Anastasis.

 

[gmr548 16,463]

less people getting sick.

[Anastasis 23,375]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

"I prefer my studies based off of theoretical perfect-world mitigation scenarios, not what's actually happening in the community"

- Statsguy Anastasis.

 

Yes, tell me more about what is actually happening in schools after you finish your google image search. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yes, tell me more about what is actually happening in schools after you finish your google image search. 

 

"I've been basing my assertion that schools create no virus spread off of my theoretical fantasy land where every child and teenager wears a mask correctly and socially distances properly 100% of the time. This study used real world data based on how people actually behave. It's not fair!!!!"

Edited March 1, 2021 by BradInATX

[B00M 6,278]

The interesting thing about the study is it quantified a threshold to open and close schools. Unfortunately they included elementary schools in their study and conclusions, so the threshold is too high, and the conclusions aren't useful. Redo the study eliminating elementary schools and you've git something policy makers could use. Or could've used, months ago.

Edited March 1, 2021 by B00M

[Armybrat 40,678]

ABIA passenger traffic (2020 Isn’t hard to guess)

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Armybrat

[GRHorn 105]

 

[B00M 6,278]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

 

Wasnt it much higher than 25% a couple months ago? Progress. And many of these holdouts will change their minds when all their friends and family are vaccinated without turning autistic or growing 3rd nipples. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

16 minutes ago, B00M said:

The interesting thing about the study is it quantified a threshold to open and close schools. Unfortunately they included elementary schools in their study and conclusions, so the threshold is too high, and the conclusions aren't useful. Redo the study eliminating elementary schools and you've git something policy makers could use. Or could've used, months ago.

 

I think the authors of the study would tell you themselves that the study isn't comprehensive enough to figure out the exact threshold at which we should re-open schools. They'd really need to do a 50-state study for that or at least a larger scope than two states, because as they noted, the threshold was different between the two states they looked at. 

It was and it continues to be a failure of our government throughout this entire pandemic that we aren't spending as much money as necessary to do studies like this but on a larger scale. We should have had this data six months ago. We have the underlying data and the money to do it. And to break it down more granularly by age as you're suggesting. It's a travesty that we haven't done it, but as just this thread alone demonstrates, the anti-science undercurrent in our country is dangerous.

What it does tell us is that schools do increase community spread except when virus prevalence is exceptionally low. Which was of course the obvious conclusion all along for anyone not treating this as a partisan or personal issue.

The discussion all along should have been "School is hugely important, so how do we protect students and teachers to mitigate as  much risk as possible, and how do we get teachers vaccinated as quickly as possible?". Instead, it turned into "hurr durr schools don't spread Covid" idiocy.

Edited March 1, 2021 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9,208]

11 minutes ago, B00M said:

Wasnt it much higher than 25% a couple months ago? Progress. And many of these holdouts will change their minds when all their friends and family are vaccinated without turning autistic or growing 3rd nipples. 

Yeah. I think early on it was close to 35-40%, but I'm too lazy to look it up. 

Those are really great numbers. If 70% of people take it, we're going to kick Covid in the dick real soon.

[gmr548 16,463]

Wasnt it much higher than 25% a couple months ago? Progress. And many of these holdouts will change their minds when all their friends and family are vaccinated without turning autistic or growing 3rd nipples. 

Uh the third nipple is a selling point but okay.

[Incredulity 11,532]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Uh the third nipple is a selling point but okay.

Cuomo?

 

No CR.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

40 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

No. It's less people (since all the fat people are dying).

[workswithseed 2,033]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I guess I'll be waiting awhile. For those of you that have the capacity to read past the headline, I'd suggest reading the Calder study where they show that schools being open correlates with an increase in community spread of 30+ percent of one SD.

Who are you talking to here?