Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[GW Hayduke 1943]

[Don Johnson 4722]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Our system failed for sure - I think we see flaws that would be problems regardless of who is in leadership.  But also, many of our individual leaders did, including the most important ones.  And knowing that, now is the time to correct that (actually, starting January 21st was the time to start), and we really haven't done that yet.  And maybe the eggs are so scrambled that they can't be unscrambled.  But we should still fucking try.

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

[Anastasis 23191]

WHO report released today.  They dismiss lab accident as source, but saw one detail that I don't think we've ever seen before. Timing pretty interesting. 

Arguments in favour Although rare, laboratory accidents do happen, and different laboratories around the world are working with bat CoVs. When working in particular with virus cultures, but also with animal inoculations or clinical samples, humans could become infected in laboratories with limited biosafety, poor laboratory management practice, or following negligence. The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.

[Brisketexan 103148]

1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

A post-mortem of how you handled ANY challenging situation is an absolutely smart management move.  It helps you figure out what worked and what didn't, so you can be better prepared for the next one.

Absolutely no fucking way that happens on a gov't level.  It will be two competing reports with two completely different political agendas driving the bus.  On the other hand, a private sector study of the same thing -- I smell a comprehensive university project -- could end up being very useful to us.

[Brisketexan 103148]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

WHO report released today.  They dismiss lab accident as source, but saw one detail that I don't think we've ever seen before. Timing pretty interesting. 

Arguments in favour Although rare, laboratory accidents do happen, and different laboratories around the world are working with bat CoVs. When working in particular with virus cultures, but also with animal inoculations or clinical samples, humans could become infected in laboratories with limited biosafety, poor laboratory management practice, or following negligence. The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.  I fixed it for you.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Brisketexan

[Deej 76081]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

NowThis spotted hanging around outside Wuhan lab.

 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2054]

some of batman's more obscure weapons aren't all that believable. 

[BabaYaga 15116]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.  I fixed it for you.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

Try inseminating a cow....manually......cry me a f'ing river bat ass stick lady.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Try inseminating a cow....manually......cry me a f'ing river bat ass stick lady.  

[Guest Lobo]

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Try inseminating a cow....manually......cry me a f'ing river bat ass stick lady.  

Um, is that going on right now?  

[BabaYaga 15116]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

[BabaYaga 15116]

33 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Um, is that going on right now?  

Have a seat city boy....

[Guest Lobo]

last time I heard that, Brooks & Dunn tried to roofie me.  Well, one 'em did anyway.  The one with the mustache. 

[Kyle 207]

3 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

I'll take a shit on the moon before anyone in government holds themselves accountable.

[BradInATX 9208]

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2021/03/30/florida-is-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-per-new-report

 

I know we're all shocked. If you account for their fraud, they jump from 27th in deaths per capita to 6th.

 

but muh florida

Edited March 31, 2021 by BradInATX

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

30 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2021/03/30/florida-is-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-per-new-report

 

I know we're all shocked. If you account for their fraud, they jump from 27th in deaths per capita to 6th.

 

but muh florida

The opening line:

Quote

It probably won't surprise anyone who has had to live through the state's lackadaisical response to the ongoing global pandemic,

Yeah, that seems like an honest piece of journalism.

[LurkingHorn 1035]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The opening line:

Yeah, that seems like an honest piece of journalism.

Here's a link to the actual report they cite if you find the article offensive: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306130

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The opening line:

Yeah, that seems like an honest piece of journalism.

 

Well, they have to put things like that in there to engage people who they know won't take the time to read the underlying study.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Anyone trying to model 2020 based on prior data is a fool's errand. It was a black swan year. Anyone who knows anything about statistical analysis throws out the outliers. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Anyone trying to model 2020 based on prior data is a fool's errand. It was a black swan year. Anyone who knows anything about statistical analysis throws out the outliers. 

I know just a little bit about statistical analysis. I'll play. What are the outliers that you speak of?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I know just a little bit about statistical analysis. I'll play. What are the outliers that you speak of?

You've made up your mind, Bradin. Florida Bad. NY Good. I'm not wasting my time debating you.

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

You've made up your mind, Bradin. Florida Bad. NY Good. I'm not wasting my time debating you.

 

uh huh..

[B00M 6000]

16 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Here's a link to the actual report they cite if you find the article offensive: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306130

Has similar analysis been done for every state? I'd love to see per capita data by state for excess deaths. 

[B00M 6000]

55 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2021/03/30/florida-is-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-per-new-report

 

I know we're all shocked. If you account for their fraud, they jump from 27th in deaths per capita to 6th.

 

but muh florida

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

[Brisketexan 103148]

9 minutes ago, B00M said:

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

THAT, I agree with.  If you are going to use a methodology to come up with comparisons, then you need to use the same methodology on all the comparator numbers.

I suspect that we'll see that the number of excess deaths in 2020 is materially higher than just the COVID deaths.  That alone won't tell us that COVID deaths were undercounted, but it's a good indicator.  If we come up with other types of death that we hypothesize may have been exacerbated by the overall situation (say, suicides, even deaths by malnutrition/starvation), and count those, and those are also materially above norms, then those likely cover some of the excess deaths that are not COVID deaths.  If, however, those are still around the normal range, then we're getting closer to a supportable conclusion that there are significant uncounted COVID deaths.  

Like most similar things, we won't really be able to sort through reliable data and make reliable conclusions until the dust settles.  And we remain in the dust storm, for the time being.

[BradInATX 9208]

21 minutes ago, B00M said:

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

 

It's not my job to do your research for you. Literally on the first page of google if you're actually interested (you're not).

 

I presume the authors of the study started with Florida because they've blatantly and unashamedly submitted fraudulent numbers. But yeah, you're absolutely right, there's definitely undercounting going on elsewhere. It's almost all concentrated in very red rural areas. So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it. Cool. Go Florida!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2021 by BradInATX

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it.

When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

THAT, I agree with.  If you are going to use a methodology to come up with comparisons, then you need to use the same methodology on all the comparator numbers.

I suspect that we'll see that the number of excess deaths in 2020 is materially higher than just the COVID deaths.  That alone won't tell us that COVID deaths were undercounted, but it's a good indicator.  If we come up with other types of death that we hypothesize may have been exacerbated by the overall situation (say, suicides, even deaths by malnutrition/starvation), and count those, and those are also materially above norms, then those likely cover some of the excess deaths that are not COVID deaths.  If, however, those are still around the normal range, then we're getting closer to a supportable conclusion that there are significant uncounted COVID deaths.  

Like most similar things, we won't really be able to sort through reliable data and make reliable conclusions until the dust settles.  And we remain in the dust storm, for the time being.

Yep. 
my basic point is I will start putting stock in the numbers 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road when economists get together and do carefully thought out surveys of a what actually happened. Until then we are in the fog of war imo, where information is often shitty. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Agreed, which is why you've avoided addressing the actual point. None of the data supports your partisan view of the pandemic so let's just distract, deflect, then retreat when called out.

Many of us who aren't approaching every piece of information about the pandemic from a partisan hack corner have criticized Cuomo and NY harshly for their poor decisions and obfuscation. Of course I don't expect any of the "but muh florida" folks to do the same, but the data is there nonetheless. You know. You won't admit it, but you know.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. 
my basic point is I will start putting stock in the numbers 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road when economists get together and do carefully thought out surveys of a what actually happened. Until then we are in the fog of war imo, where information is often shitty. 

We won't know precise numbers for awhile, if ever. But we know a few things, without any doubt. Florida is cooking their books. NY is cooking their books. The majority of the south and very rural areas are cooking their books and fraudulently underreporting their Covid numbers. There is more than enough information out there to definitively draw those conclusions. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We won't know precise numbers for awhile, if ever. But we know a few things, without any doubt. Florida is cooking their books. NY is cooking their books. The majority of the south and very rural areas are cooking their books and fraudulently underreporting their Covid numbers. There is more than enough information out there to definitively draw those conclusions. 

Whenever you use numbers to quantity something it’s good to know that they are accurate. I don’t know how you draw any conclusions without definitive numbers. 
there’s a reason why no serious history is attempted until at least 30-50 years have passed. 
things need to sort out. That’s not to say we need 30 years for data on this- just that the fog of war needs to end. I don’t think it has. It’s possible everyone is lying about numbers. Or unaware of the truth. It’s possible some are willfully misleading and others are unintentionally a little bit wrong 

I will wait for the studies before I draw definite conclusions. I think my only real disagreement with your post is the idea of definitiveness at this time. 

[B00M 6000]

18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

It's not my job to do your research for you. Literally on the first page of google if you're actually interested (you're not).

 

I presume the authors of the study started with Florida because they've blatantly and unashamedly submitted fraudulent numbers. But yeah, you're absolutely right, there's definitely undercounting going on elsewhere. It's almost all concentrated in very red rural areas. So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it. Cool. Go Florida!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't be so petulant, Brad. You very well may be right, but you were lazy with the stats. If it's so easy to show where Florida ranks in excess deaths, please do. I'm on your side here and you're just lashing out at everyone.

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

LMAO.

There are thousands of posts on this thread talking about how masks and restrictions don't work because the numbers show that red states and no-restriction states are doing just great. You were all over that weren't you. But now that the data is completely predictably showing that was all bullshit, you don't like the numbers?

Once again, and let me try to dumb this down because stats clearly aren't your forte, we won't know exact numbers or exactly where Florida "ranks" for awhile. But we can, with certainty, conclude that they are underreporting numbers. As are NY and other southern red states. 

The numbers from Florida and other states are so far outside of a normal confidence interval when compared to excess deaths that there is literally no way to conclude anything other than Covid deaths are being underreported. There is no "we don't know". We know. 

[Parliament 13979]

Now that the US is doing a reasonably OK job of vaccinating our own people, I'm thinking about the developing world. How's it look for them? Are we funding efforts to get them vaxed or nah? Are they on their own, good luck? Seems I haven't read much about it.

[Kyle 207]

Would given hospitals and extra $5K to attach covid to an ICD-10 provide an incentive to over- or undercount deaths related to covid?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You were all over that weren't you.

Nope. But keep projecting. You're doing great!

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

Don't be so petulant, Brad. You very well may be right, but you were lazy with the stats. If it's so easy to show where Florida ranks in excess deaths, please do. I'm on your side here and you're just lashing out at everyone.

I wasn't lazy with the stats. I made a direct statement. If you accounted for the estimated 14,000 unreported deaths in Florida, they'd be #6 currently. That's absolutely true.

The underlying point of my post is that Florida, broadly used as a "see masks don't work look at how well Florida is doing!", is full of shit and had much, much worse Covid death numbers (by about 50%) than they would have you believe.

And with Florida in particular, we absolutely know it was being done intentionally. You could sell me on the argument that very rural areas lack reporting capability. I could feasibly believe that, say, Mississippi underreported just due to being a poor shitty rural state without capacity to really properly report. Florida fired its statistician because they told her to underreport and she refused. Which is, I assume, why the article focused on Florida.

We'll learn more in the coming years, but anyone rational and without the partisan hackery boat anchor around their neck knows what we're going to see. NY, probably NJ, Florida, a bunch of southern states, the Dakotas, and maybe California are underreporting their numbers.

Edited March 31, 2021 by BradInATX

[B00M 6000]

1 minute ago, Kyle said:

Would given hospitals and extra $5K to attach covid to an ICD-10 provide an incentive to over- or undercount deaths related to covid?

Source please? 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Whenever you use numbers to quantity something it’s good to know that they are accurate. I don’t know how you draw any conclusions without definitive numbers. 

"We just can't know whether the Pacific Ocean or Lake Travis is bigger because we don't know exactly how many gallons are in each"

[B00M 6000]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I wasn't lazy with the stats. I made a direct statement. If you accounted for the estimated 14,000 unreported deaths in Florida, they'd be #6 currently. That's absolutely true.

The underlying point of my post is that Florida, broadly used as a "see masks don't work look at how well Florida is doing!", is full of shit and had much, much worse Covid death numbers (by about 50%) than they would have you believe.

I believe you and simply want an apples to apples compatison.

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, B00M said:

I believe you and simply want an apples to apples compatison.

Agreed. To date I haven't seen a state by state comparison of excess deaths vs. expected. We'll get one eventually.

[Anastasis 23191]

Can you link the source of those charts Brad?

Some of the excess deaths that have not been previously attributed to COVID are certainly related directly to COVID.  A good number of them are also related to a variety of other underlying medical conditions and are non COVID related. Some states will see a greater number of those non-COVID excess deaths than other based simply on demographics and other factors such as rates of obesity and cardiovascular disease, e.g. states in the south have the highest baseline incidence rate for death due to CV disease. I've see data showing substantial reduction in CV related hospitalization, eg. AMI, ranging from 20-30% during lockdown through summer, with modest recovery in later 2020, but still significantly depressed admits per thousands. Heart attacks didn't just go away. A lot of those people were deferring care seeking and had out of hospital cardiac arrest and may have died in home. Certainly there is under-ascertainment of COVID mortality occurring, but there is a bit to unpack related to excess deaths and state to state comparisons. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Anastasis

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Florida fired its statistician because they told her to underreport and she refused.

See, when you make shit up, people don't believe anything else you say.

 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

"We just can't know whether the Pacific Ocean or Lake Travis is bigger because we don't know exactly how many gallons are in each"

Nah man- more like I can’t stand on the shore in Galveston and tell you if the gulf  is bigger or smaller than the pacific when I compare that to standing on the shore in Monterrey. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Can you link the source of those charts Brad?

Some of the excess deaths that have not been previously attributed to COVID are certainly related directly to COVID.  A good number of them are also related to a variety of other underlying medical conditions and are non COVID related. Some states will see a greater number of those non-COVID excess deaths than other based simply on demographics and other factors such as rates of obesity and cardiovascular disease. States in the south have the highest incidence rate for death due to CV disease. I've see data showing substantial reduction in CV related hospitalization, eg. AMI, ranging from 20-30% during lockdown through summer, with modest recovery in later 2020, but still significantly depressed admits per thousands. Heart attacks didn't just go away. A lot of those people were deferring care seeking and had out of hospital cardiac arrest and may have died in home. Certainly this is under-reporting of COVID mortality occurring, but there is a bit to unpack related to excess deaths and state to state comparisons. 

 

Higher cardiovascular incidence, obesity rates, etc. would already be accounted for in the baseline "expected deaths" numbers unless your assertion is that just prior to Covid, there was a one-time, historic mass migration of fat people to specific states. 

But you already know that. Or you should.

[Anastasis 23191]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Higher cardiovascular incidence, obesity rates, etc. would already be accounted for in the baseline "expected deaths" numbers unless your assertion is that just prior to Covid, there was a one-time, historic mass migration of fat people to specific states. 

But you already know that. Or you should.

Are suggesting that there is not an interaction between higher baseline CV risk and deferred care seeking with excess mortality as an outcome?  Interesting. Totally wrong, but interesting. 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Are suggesting that there is not an interaction between higher baseline CV risk and deferred care seeking with excess mortality as an outcome?  Interesting. Totally wrong, but interesting. 

Nope, I'm not. I'm sure it's a small piece of the pie, which a) appears to be accounted for by the study (can't get the full text right now, but they attribute 4,000 of the 19,000 deaths above expected to non-Covid) and b) is not going to be drastic in Florida, given that it's in the bottom 10 of heart disease mortality in the country.

I'm not sure what your point is/was. Does Florida only being 48% fraudulent instead of 50% materially change our conversation?

Edited March 31, 2021 by BradInATX

[BabaYaga 15116]

35 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

To summarize Brad's point:  We don't know.  But really, I do know...and you don't know.  Let's not be partisan about this, but every one of my posts is going to slant in a single direction.  Let's definitely be as objective about this as we can, but if you looked up confirmation bias in the dictionary, my fucking face is posted there as example #1. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

To summarize Brad's point:  We don't know.  But really, I do know...and you don't know.  Let's not be partisan about this, but every one of my posts is going to slant in a single direction.  Let's definitely be as objective about this as we can, but if you looked up confirmation bias in the dictionary, my fucking face is posted there as example #1. 

 

To summarize you and Cheese's posts

"we got nothin"

At least you didn't try to talk stats and science and then pussy out when called out like he did. You already know better.