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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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14 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

A sign of desperation? Not an ID specialist, but the HIV anti-retrovirals from 20-25 years back give patients a ton of side effects.

There just aren't a lot of treatments available. Corticosteroids don't seem to be effective against the pneumonia and may actually increase mortality. These 2 anti-retrovirals showed some promise during the SARS and MERS epidemics. I tried searching drugs in development and there weren't any specific to coronaviruses. I would have to look at the targets of other retroviral therapies and then look at this coronavirus to see if any of the targets make sense. However, this would be a pretty useless search because the developers already know if their drug could have some activity against the disease.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

So here’s an example of how things aren’t adding up. 

A city of 11 million can’t keep up with cremating bodies but only 50 something have died in China? I guess the tweet could be wrong. 

 

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Cremation centers might be refusing to pick up the virus victims. Who knows

 

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Ehh, cremation workers are probably scared to touch the infected bodies.

I’m picturing it something like this:

Hospital: We have 5 bodies that need to be cremated ASAP.  

Cremation company: Did they have coronavirus?

Hospital: It was...pneumonia.   Yeah, that’s it.  That’s the ticket.  Pneumonia.  You know those old people, always dying from that.  

Cremation company: spacer.png

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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57 minutes ago, Xian said:

The ama post talks about it some. People can still walk around and the government run stores are still being stocked. The Person posting talks about how he bought 2 weeks worth of food stuff for him and his parents. 
 

though he did mention the water recently turned a greenish tint and smells like chlorine.   Guessing they are having issues at the water plant. 

The way their media communicates, it would be easy to see people panic. However, they're also quite obedient over there, for good reason. It's a very interesting test case for a number of reasons, not least being that it's China and Xi Jingping is not exactly Making China Great Again.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3429

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There are some papers from the SARS and MERS outbreaks that suggested the retrovirals (HIV drugs) used invoked resistance quickly and became ineffective. This could easily happen with the Wuhan virus. Not sure this strategy by China medical authorities will work.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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52 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

The way their media communicates, it would be easy to see people panic. However, they're also quite obedient over there, for good reason. It's a very interesting test case for a number of reasons, not least being that it's China and Xi Jingping is not exactly Making China Great Again.

Speaking of obedient and people, apparently when an older Chinese person goes to the hospital, they take 1-2 other family members to help them, stand in line, etc.   

So it’s probable that 1/2 - 2/3 of the people you see in some of those videos are family members who weren’t sick, but were there to help their relative.  

Key words: weren’t sick.   So now those people could be sick, plus all of the people who only had the flu and happened to need hospital care.

Whoever was complaining about American media coverage, we now have our 5th case in the US, and the networks are waking up.  CNN has somebody on the ground, and the others do as well, or are working on it.   Kobe Is having a major impact on that coverage this afternoon, but it will pick up.

Hopefully it won’t take Cletus three days to drive from Atlanta back to College Station with the results for the aggy student.

 

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1332

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Multiple cities and states have been screening patients whose symptoms are consistent with the virus. The Virginia Health Department said Sunday that it is investigating two residents in central Virginia and one in northern Virginia "who meet both clinical and epidemiologic criteria" for the virus.

Fuck, I happen to live in Central Virginia. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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52 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

There are some papers from the SARS and MERS outbreaks that suggested the retrovirals (HIV drugs) used invoked resistance quickly and became ineffective. This could easily happen with the Wuhan virus. Not sure this strategy by China medical authorities will work.

Yeah, looking at the past data I am not sure there are obviously good options. See http://sarsreference.com/sarsref/treat.htm

Remdesivir worked well in vitro at Vanderbilt but when it was tried against Ebola it was not very effective so I remain skeptical. If you have access to pubmed there is a pretty good article on targets: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19449500

And I saw some early stage stuff (nucleosides and antisense) from companies like Riboscience and Isis and BioCryst but I think it would be premature to count on any of them working and being available.

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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1 minute ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Multiple cities and states have been screening patients whose symptoms are consistent with the virus. The Virginia Health Department said Sunday that it is investigating two residents in central Virginia and one in northern Virginia "who meet both clinical and epidemiologic criteria" for the virus.

Fuck, I happen to live in Central Virginia. 

Rule number one in contagion is don't live near Reston, VA. Rule number two is don't live near The Walter Reed Army Medical Center.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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3 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Multiple cities and states have been screening patients whose symptoms are consistent with the virus. The Virginia Health Department said Sunday that it is investigating two residents in central Virginia and one in northern Virginia "who meet both clinical and epidemiologic criteria" for the virus.

Fuck, I happen to live in Central Virginia. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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Aggy finally got a win, as somebody said.  Stuff and mount this student in Champion’s Hall.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Test-results-show-Texas-AM-patient-does-NOT-have-coronavirus-567311791.html

Quote

The Brazos County Health District has received the results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on the suspected case of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus.

Officials on Sunday announced the results are negative.

The health department and Texas A&M University announced last week a student who recently traveled to China was showing mild symptoms of the virus and on Wednesday he went to a local emergency room. 

Samples from the unidentified patient were sent to the CDC in Atlanta for testing to find out if the student's illness was the coronavirus. 

Officials said the student has been self-isolating at his home since his visit to the hospital.

Testing is also being done for a Baylor University student who also displayed similar symptoms but those tests have not been concluded at this time.

 

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Aggy finally got a win, as somebody said.  Stuff and mount this student in Champion’s Hall.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Test-results-show-Texas-AM-patient-does-NOT-have-coronavirus-567311791.html

 

Maybe it is like that Indian woman on an earlier page. The good news is you don't have Wuhan coronavirus. The bad news is you have MERS.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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Nice charts and stats. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Growth is exponential.   Confirmed cases vs deaths are holding steady at 3% mortality rate.  

If the mortality rate were higher, I don’t think they’d have a problem nudging the death numbers another percent or two.  

Also, Beijing is still not on lockdown.    Feels like if it were really bad, Beijing and Shanghai would be in total lockdown, and we’d see a massive troop presence everywhere.  

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nice charts and stats. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Growth is exponential.   Confirmed cases vs deaths are holding steady at 3% mortality rate.  

If the mortality rate were higher, I don’t think they’d have a problem nudging the death numbers another percent or two. 

I don't think the mortality rate is that high. The city by city rates show a much higher rate in Wuhan and a much lower rate elsewhere. My guess is that this is because in Wuhan, officials are underestimating the number of infected.

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1332

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Wanted to know what level of concern I should have and read this:

 

The three patients, two in central Virginia and one in Northern Virginia, meet the clinical and epidemiologic criteria for the virus that's prompted China to put millions under quarantine, the Virginia Department of Health said Sunday.

The health department has not released more specific information about where the patients live, work or have traveled.Specific details about the patients won't be released to protect their privacy, health officials say. Officials say they are working closely with the patients and those they've had close contact with recently.

 

If this crisis is real we're going to have to make some tough choices soon.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Stop shitting your pants over five cases of the flu. being bored in the off-season, and stop following something that’s fascinating, and is the first real epidemic to pop up during the modern era of social media.

Fixed.  And I was kidding, I know you’re not a boomer.  

And seriously, the mathematical models are fascinating - there’s been a few that are nailing the daily increase in infections.  Deaths are off, because there appears to be a backlog.  

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fixed.  And I was kidding, I know you’re not a boomer.  

And seriously, the mathematical models are fascinating - there’s been a few that are nailing the daily increase in infections.  Deaths are off, because there appears to be a backlog.  

I don't follow the math, but I do find the different social responses, etc rather interesting. It's being amplified on social media. Figuring out who and why might be doing that is intriguing i.e. people in Hong Kong, for example or others who have a particular agenda, or simply teens (anywhere in the world) who wish to push bot armies for the heck of it. How is it playing across the US social media w/respect to views towards immigration, etc. Or the anti-vaccine crowd. The anti-science crowd.

I follow the Johns Hopkins link because it has a graph and map that is about my speed w/respect to complexity, that is to say it's pretty basic.

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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Well, it could be the start of a pandemic for which there is no treatment. The mortality rates are unknown. The morbidity and rate of transmission are unknown. Whether it can be contained is unknown. And the future of the disease may be something that disappears in 6 months or stays around forever. Lots of question marks.

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Bevo

Bevo 13493

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5 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Multiple cities and states have been screening patients whose symptoms are consistent with the virus. The Virginia Health Department said Sunday that it is investigating two residents in central Virginia and one in northern Virginia "who meet both clinical and epidemiologic criteria" for the virus.

Fuck, I happen to live in Central Virginia. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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27 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I don't follow the math, but I do find the different social responses, etc rather interesting. It's being amplified on social media. Figuring out who and why might be doing that is intriguing i.e. people in Hong Kong, for example or others who have a particular agenda, or simply teens (anywhere in the world) who wish to push bot armies for the heck of it. How is it playing across the US social media w/respect to views towards immigration, etc. Or the anti-vaccine crowd. The anti-science crowd.

I follow the Johns Hopkins link because it has a graph and map that is about my speed w/respect to complexity, that is to say it's pretty basic.

I would follow this page, as they have up-to-date stats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

The Hong Kong folks are rioting again over them turning an abandoned apartment building into a quarantine zone.  They have a bone to pick with the government.  

The vaxxers/anti-science crowd are saying “stay the hell away from hospitals, that’s where you will get it, we told you so!”

There are plenty pushing a lot of fake stuff and stats online.   

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Bigbend1812

Bigbend1812 12877

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32 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I don't follow the math, but I do find the different social responses, etc rather interesting. It's being amplified on social media. Figuring out who and why might be doing that is intriguing i.e. people in Hong Kong, for example or others who have a particular agenda, or simply teens (anywhere in the world) who wish to push bot armies for the heck of it. How is it playing across the US social media w/respect to views towards immigration, etc. Or the anti-vaccine crowd. The anti-science crowd.

I follow the Johns Hopkins link because it has a graph and map that is about my speed w/respect to complexity, that is to say it's pretty basic.

I smoked pot once with Johnny Hopkins. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Well, it could be the start of a pandemic for which there is no treatment. The mortality rates are unknown. The morbidity and rate of transmission are unknown. Whether it can be contained is unknown. And the future of the disease may be something that disappears in 6 months or stays around forever. Lots of question marks.

The daily growing number of infected folks resembles a logistic curve, which is a little worrisome, but then I’m wondering if it’s limited to how many they can actually test daily (as in production of the test kits) - are these actual new cases, or they working through a backlog of suspected folks.  

If it was seriously deadly, like Ebola deadly, it should have started burning itself out by now. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

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13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I just realized the Olympics this year are in Tokyo. 

They have about 6 months to wrap this shit up 

They are already canceling various trials and whatnot related to the Olympics, in China and a few other places.  

We might get an Olympics where there are no spectators in person, and where the STD rate is still the biggest concern.  

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1622

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45 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I don't follow the math, but I do find the different social responses, etc rather interesting. It's being amplified on social media. Figuring out who and why might be doing that is intriguing i.e. people in Hong Kong, for example or others who have a particular agenda, or simply teens (anywhere in the world) who wish to push bot armies for the heck of it. How is it playing across the US social media w/respect to views towards immigration, etc. Or the anti-vaccine crowd. The anti-science crowd.

I follow the Johns Hopkins link because it has a graph and map that is about my speed w/respect to complexity, that is to say it's pretty basic.

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with your take on social media.  I think social media is working perfectly.   I think it's the US Main Stream Media that is under amplifying it.    

The reality is there are 56 Million people who are in a forced lock down do to a virus that continues to spread. That's amazing.   That's almost 2x the number of people in Texas under lock down. 

Social Media is now starting to report more and more on food shortages and hunger in the locked down areas ... I don't think this is some 4chan creeps planting fake stories.

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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1 minute ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with your take on social media.  I think social media is working perfectly.   I think it's the US Main Stream Media that is under amplifying it.    

The reality is there are 56 Million people who are in a forced lock down do to a virus that continues to spread. That's amazing.   That's almost 2x the number of people in Texas under lock down. 

Social Media is now starting to report more and more on food shortages and hunger in the locked down areas ... I don't think this is some 4chan creeps planting fake stories.

 

 

Its probably a little bit of both. There is certainly reason to suspect that the Chinese government might not be completely forthcoming with accurate coronavirus details, and from that standpoint social media can play a role in presenting alternate accounts. On the flipside,  you'd have to be a fool to reject the notion that social media will be used by all sorts of people/groups with ulterior motives to  propagate misinformation and  steer public opinion.  There are millions of bot accounts on these sites that were created explicitly for this purpose. They know that if you stick an Obama, Trump, AOC, etc.... in a tweet, you'll automatically get buy-in from the average moron no matter what other nonsense you include. 

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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46 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

It more and more on food shortages and hunger in the locked down areas ... I don't think this is some 4chan creeps planting fake stories

You are either quarantined, or you aren't. What likely has happened is that the government sends out soldiers and says "don't let anybody through". Well if you stop everybody, you stop food and fuel deliveries. So people can't eat and cars don't run. But if you let people in and out, you break the quarantine. I mean, let's ignore that they aren't stopping anyone from walking across a farmers field to get out. Anyone can bribe the guards. IF it was a real deal scenario, the barrier would have failed. 

Thankfully this appears to be a test virus, not the big Kahuna. The 1918 Flu hit the young more than the old, that's what made it so deadly. This isn't that. It's just taking out the old and vulnerable, which is terrible but not a catastrophe. 

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Bigbend1812

Bigbend1812 12877

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientist-who-simulated-the-global-impact-of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-says-the-cats-already-out-of-the-bag-and-chinas-efforts-to-contain-the-disease-unlikely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

Zhou Xianwang, the Mayor of Wuhan, shared a similar view. He estimated that some 5 million people may have left the city before travel restrictions were imposed.

today check GIF

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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9 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with your take on social media.  I think social media is working perfectly.   I think it's the US Main Stream Media that is under amplifying it.    

The reality is there are 56 Million people who are in a forced lock down do to a virus that continues to spread. That's amazing.   That's almost 2x the number of people in Texas under lock down. 

Social Media is now starting to report more and more on food shortages and hunger in the locked down areas ... I don't think this is some 4chan creeps planting fake stories.

 

 

I could definitely be way off in my opinion. My observations are limited to what appeared to be unsourced videos on Twitter and lots of comments and retweets relating to political angles, Q-type conspiracy theories, you know---the bandwagon effect. It takes on a life of its own and figuring out what is real/fake is difficult. That was in the earlier days, now that the initial awareness is out there, perhaps it will get sorted out.

 

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