Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[DDD Dad 14251]

The one trick to improve your Surly enjoyment:

Obsession noted.

[Dahobbs 17444]

21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Those need to be identified and isolated.  Numbers I have seen are in the low thousands (less than 5K).  To mandate hundreds of millions of otherwise healthy people must comply to protect and very clear and identifiable sub-set is absurd.  

Vaccines are not new, so to act like identifying this sub-set is difficult seems counter intuitive as they would know their own conditions.  

I think your numbers are very low. But, ignoring that, your solution is that instead of requiring everyone get a near risk free vaccine that will benefit everyone, instead we should force a small segment of the population to essentially remain imprisoned? Have the few bear all the cost for the benefit of everyone else? Do you feel the same about other vaccines that we require? If not, why not? 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Dahobbs

[DDD Dad 14251]

Besides posting an article from a scientific study that says that very thing?  Care to read it, refute it, and report back to us?

DO THE RESEARCH!!!!!

[Okie State 3788]

I’ve been having some pretty significant heart palpitations for the last several days, mostly at night. I’ve had them before but it’s been 15 years or so. I’ve got a doc appt Thursday to see what’s up, but there are some associations of myocarditis with the vaccines.

Well that's concerning. I'd be interested to hear what your doctor says about it.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

4 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I wonder what the vaccination rates for this age group will be?

100 percent for the people I know.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

For children, completely and utterly unnecessary.  They are statistically safer from COVID that taking over the counter pain meds.  For the vulnerable.  Protect and target the vulnerable.  To mandate the everyone MUST do this or do that to carry on with their lives is akin to E.Germany stops to "show your papers".

This virus kills the fat and the old.  So protect the fat and the old.  For most everyone else, mandates like this are insane.  

You realize unvaccinated can be carriers right?  So to control the disease the more vaccinated there are, the better chance we don’t spawn all the new variants that can be coming?  It’s amazing the contrarianism that revolves around this disease.  Almost like it’s not about the disease at all.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

  It’s amazing the contrarianism that revolves around this disease.  Almost like it’s not about the disease at all.

You’re not the boss of me!!

[Telegraph_it 3354]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

You realize unvaccinated can be carriers right?  So to control the disease the more vaccinated there are, the better chance we don’t spawn all the new variants that can be coming?  It’s amazing the contrarianism that revolves around this disease.  Almost like it’s not about the disease at all.

What if one of the variants ends up being a good variant and not a bad one. 

[Bookman 4610]

https://www.brown.edu/news/2020-08-12/stay-home

[washparkhorn 9935]

10 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Many of which are being revisited as doing the opposite of what they were intended to prevent - namely prevent the spread of the virus.  At best, [lockdowns] were entirely ineffective.  

Lockdowns

Wrong.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/01/20/what-about-that-new-paper-estimating-the-effects-of-lockdowns-etc/

 

[Bookman 4610]

Anyone who didn't have his head in the sand last year understands that lockdowns were effective.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

58 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Anyone who didn't have his head in the sand last year understands that lockdowns were effective.

I hated the lockdown and went back to the office after about four weeks but I agree completely.  We saw no transmission at the office (because everyone was masked) even though we had a bunch of cases from outside sources. 
 

Anecdotally it was obvious the measures worked and to the extent they didn’t it was because people didn’t wear a mask, engaged in other high risk behavior, or got unlucky.  The mask mandates need to end sometime but we’re requiring them at the office until the CDC says otherwise.  
 

Some of the offices in my company that weren’t vigilant enough had some bad spreader episodes.
 

It may irritate some clients and employees but it’s an easy calculus for now.  Once my whole family including younger teens are vaccinated we’re traveling and I personally am looking forward to saving the mask for a future outbreak, but not regularly wearing it out anymore.

It’s a real shame the reaction was so politicized because had we come together to react like some of the Asian countries we could have blown through this thing so much quicker.  Thank goodness for the medical researchers and manufacturers who got us the vaccine so quickly.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

What if one of the variants ends up being a good variant and not a bad one. 

What if the vaccine was really just the friends we made along the way?

[Armybrat 40735]

30 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

What if the vaccine was really just the friends we made along the way?

Sugar baby thread is over there... somewhere... >>>>>>>

[BabaYaga 15210]

3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I hated the lockdown and went back to the office after about four weeks but I agree completely.  We saw no transmission at the office (because everyone was masked) even though we had a bunch of cases from outside sources. 
 

Anecdotally it was obvious the measures worked and to the extent they didn’t it was because people didn’t wear a mask, engaged in other high risk behavior, or got unlucky.  The mask mandates need to end sometime but we’re requiring them at the office until the CDC says otherwise.  

Understand the point was that more and more research is looking into their efficacy as we do more and more after-action reviews.  This isn't "proof" that they worked or did not, but analysis on their efficacy and societal and economic costs.  More and more of these papers are starting to pop up.

Anecdotally, there was very little statistical variance between states with the most stringent mandates (CA & NY for ex) and much more open states when you review the entire trajectory of the process.  You can make the compelling argument that people just didn't comply, thus the outcomes - but is this is a pattern of behavior, then it needs to be a part of the calculus on steps we are going to take in the future.  Especially when reconciled with the knowledge that we now have a much better understanding on how this virus operates and who is the most vulnerable (that we need to target and protect)

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

12 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

100 percent for the people I know.

You hanging out with a bunch of 12-15 year olds? 

[CooterBrown 17905]

16 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

For children, completely and utterly unnecessary.  They are statistically safer from COVID that taking over the counter pain meds.  For the vulnerable.  Protect and target the vulnerable.  To mandate the everyone MUST do this or do that to carry on with their lives is akin to E.Germany stops to "show your papers".

This virus kills the fat and the old.  So protect the fat and the old.  For most everyone else, mandates like this are insane.  

Until a variant emerges that does regularly kill the healthy and children.  You know how minimize and maybe eliminate the chances of variants? Everyone gets a fucking vaccine.

Edited May 4, 2021 by CooterBrown

[Captainant 27447]

2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Until a variant emerges that does regularly kill the healthy and children.  You know how minimize and maybe eliminate the chances of variants? Everyone gets a fucking vaccine.

Next you'll be telling me that wearing a facemask is an extremely effective and cheap way to minimize and maybe eliminate the risk of the emergence of variants too

[DaysOff 7851]

2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Until a variant emerges that does regularly kill the healthy and children.  You know how minimize and maybe eliminate the chances of variants? Everyone gets a fucking get a vaccine.

 

The fact that we're over a year in this mess and still needs to be explained to non aggy college educated people boggles the mind.

[Don Johnson 4745]

Right now we have minor debates about how to handle the vaccine.  Rewards for getting it?  Punishment for not?  Vaccine passports?  Facebook craziness, terrible messaging, etc.

The child vaccination debate is going to be WWIII in this country as we get closer to the school year.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

The Great Divide will continue. Just like China wants.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

DT brain worms #1: posts NYT article stating lower vaccine adoption rates and emerging variants mean we’re probably needing to shift gears to make covid a manageable ongoing threat. DOOM!!!!

DT brain worms #2: says there’s no need to get the vaccine, we just need to deal with it differently moving forward. COOL COOL!!!!

[Neonmoon 38127]

5 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Right now we have minor debates about how to handle the vaccine.  Rewards for getting it?  Punishment for not?  Vaccine passports?  Facebook craziness, terrible messaging, etc.

The child vaccination debate is going to be WWIII in this country as we get closer to the school year.

The FDA has only given EUA for the vaccine. It has not given full authorization. That might take another 6 months. It is the reason the military personnel are able to decline taking it right now, as its technically considered “experimental”. Once full authorization is given, then their freedom of choice goes away and it will be required. I believe it’s the same for schools. 

I don’t believe the FDA will fully authorize by the school year. we will see. But once they do, schools will require a covid vaccine for attendance and a bunch of idiots will try to make a political stand when no stand was made for the MMR vaccine they are required to get. Because idiots. 
 

 

[Anastasis 23394]

Regarding timelines for authorizations/approvals, from the Pfizer Q1 teleconference today...

 

 

[Anastasis 23394]

13 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

The child vaccination debate is going to be WWIII in this country as we get closer to the school year.

Yep. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

14 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

says there’s no need to get the vaccine,

Curious who is saying that here, because that seems like a Strawman.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

17 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

My folks are older - they are dialed in with both shots.  I already had it.  We all did.  Like a wet fart in a windstorm.  Daughter lost taste for a day.  I had a headache.  My folks are visiting.  They are good to go.  So are we and they feel safe around us.  So what is this mandate going to do to help us?  This top-down, one size fits all nonsense has to stop. 

 

7 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Curious who is saying that here, because that seems like a Strawman.

"wet fart"

[CooterBrown 17905]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.

 

Continued immunizations, especially for people at highest risk because of age, exposure or health status, will be crucial to limiting the severity of outbreaks, if not their frequency, experts believe.

 

“The virus is unlikely to go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.”

The shift in outlook presents a new challenge for public health authorities. The drive for herd immunity — by the summer, some experts once thought possible — captured the imagination of large segments of the public. To say the goal will not be attained adds another “why bother” to the list of reasons that vaccine skeptics use to avoid being inoculated.

Yet vaccinations remain the key to transforming the virus into a controllable threat, experts said.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking.

“People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said.

 

Once the novel coronavirus began to spread across the globe in early 2020, it became increasingly clear that the only way out of the pandemic would be for so many people to gain immunity — whether through natural infection or vaccination — that the virus would run out of people to infect. The concept of reaching herd immunity became the implicit goal in many countries, including the United States.

Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available.

But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible.

As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

 

Though resistance to the vaccines is a main reason the United States is unlikely to reach herd immunity, it is not the only one.

Herd immunity is often described as a national target. But that is a hazy concept in a country this large.

 

“Disease transmission is local,” Dr. Lipsitch noted.

“If the coverage is 95 percent in the United States as a whole, but 70 percent in some small town, the virus doesn’t care,” he explained. “It will make its way around the small town.”

 

Uneven Willingness to Get Vaccinated Could Affect Herd Immunity

In some parts of the United States, inoculation rates may not reach the threshold needed to prevent the coronavirus from spreading easily.

 

Estimated share of adults who would

“definitely” or “probably” get the vaccine

 

How insulated a particular region is from the coronavirus depends on a dizzying array of factors.

Herd immunity can fluctuate with “population crowding, human behavior, sanitation and all sorts of other things,” said Dr. David M. Morens, a virologist and senior adviser to Dr. Fauci. “The herd immunity for a wealthy neighborhood might be X, then you go into a crowded neighborhood one block away and it’s 10X.”

Given the degree of movement among regions, a small virus wave in a region with a low vaccination level can easily spill over into an area where a majority of the population is protected.

At the same time, the connectivity between countries, particularly as travel restrictions ease, emphasizes the urgency of protecting not just Americans but everyone in the world, said Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Any variants that arise in the world will eventually reach the United States, she noted.

 

Many parts of the world lag far behind the United States on vaccinations. Less than 2 percent of the people in India have been fully vaccinated, for example, and less than 1 percent in South Africa, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

“We will not achieve herd immunity as a country or a state or even as a city until we have enough immunity in the population as a whole,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, the director of the Covid-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.

What the future may hold

If the herd immunity threshold is not attainable, what matters most is the rate of hospitalizations and deaths after pandemic restrictions are relaxed, experts believe.

By focusing on vaccinating the most vulnerable, the United States has already brought those numbers down sharply. If the vaccination levels of that group continue to rise, the expectation is that over time the coronavirus may become seasonal, like the flu, and affect mostly the young and healthy.

“What we want to do at the very least is get to a point where we have just really sporadic little flare-ups,” said Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “That would be a very sensible target in this country where we have an excellent vaccine and the ability to deliver it.”

Over the long term — a generation or two — the goal is to transition the new coronavirus to become more like its cousins that cause common colds. That would mean the first infection is early in childhood, and subsequent infections are mild because of partial protection, even if immunity wanes.

Some unknown proportion of people with mild cases may go on to experience debilitating symptoms for weeks or months — a syndrome called “long Covid” — but they are unlikely to overwhelm the health care system.

 

“The vast majority of the mortality and of the stress on the health care system comes from people with a few particular conditions, and especially people who are over 60,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “If we can protect those people against severe illness and death, then we will have turned Covid from a society disrupter to a regular infectious disease.”

If communities maintain vigilant testing and tracking, it may be possible to bring the number of new cases so low that health officials can identify any new introduction of the virus and immediately stifle a potential outbreak, said Bary Pradelski, an economist at the National Center for Scientific Research in Grenoble, France. He and his colleagues described this strategy in a paper published on Thursday in the scientific journal The Lancet.

“Eradication is, I think, impossible at this stage,” Dr. Pradelski said. “But you want local elimination.”

 

Vaccination is still the key

The endpoint has changed, but the most pressing challenge remains the same: persuading as many people as possible to get the shot.

Reaching a high level of immunity in the population “is not like winning a race,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “You have to then feed it. You have to keep vaccinating to stay above that threshold.”

Skepticism about the vaccines among many Americans and lack of access in some groups — homeless populations, migrant workers or some communities of color — make it a challenge to achieve that goal. Vaccine mandates would only make that stance worse, some experts believe.

 

A better approach would be for a trusted figure to address the root cause of the hesitancy — fear, mistrust, misconceptions, ease of access or a desire for more information, said Mary Politi, an expert in health decision making and health communication at Washington University in St. Louis.

People often need to see others in their social circle embracing something before they are willing to try it, Dr. Politi said. Emphasizing the benefits of vaccination to their lives, like seeing a family member or sending their children to school, might be more motivating than the nebulous idea of herd immunity.

“That would resonate with people more than this somewhat elusive concept that experts are still trying to figure out,” she added.

Though children spread the virus less efficiently than adults do, the experts all agreed that vaccinating children would also be important for keeping the number of Covid cases low. In the long term, the public health system will also need to account for babies, and for children and adults who age into a group with higher risk.

Unnerving scenarios remain on the path to this long-term vision.

Over time, if not enough people are protected, highly contagious variants may develop that can break through vaccine protection, land people in the hospital and put them at risk of death.

“That’s the nightmare scenario,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University.

How frequent and how severe those breakthrough infections are have the potential to determine whether the United States can keep hospitalizations and deaths low or if the country will find itself in a “mad scramble” every couple of years, he said.

“I think we’re going to be looking over our shoulders — or at least public health officials and infectious disease epidemiologists are going to be looking over their shoulders going: ‘All right, the variants out there — what are they doing? What are they capable of?” he said. “Maybe the general public can go back to not worrying about it so much, but we will have to.”

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

FWIW, I've had several employees say they couldn't get the vaccine if they've had Covid within 90 days. If BabaYaga is saying "there is no need to get the vaccine" then he's wrong. But I don't read that. But I'll wait for him to comment.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, CooterBrown said:

Over time, if not enough people are protected, highly contagious variants may develop that can break through vaccine protection, land people in the hospital and put them at risk of death.

YEAH! The NYT Doom is back!!!!

[Viper 12028]

I thought this was an interesting long read from a writer at Nature, Science, and the NYT looking at the possibility that it accidentally escaped from a lab while being studied.

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

seems like this scenario is gaining some traction lately.

[babysdaddy 2718]

37 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The FDA has only given EUA for the vaccine. It has not given full authorization. That might take another 6 months. It is the reason the military personnel are able to decline taking it right now, as its technically considered “experimental”. Once full authorization is given, then their freedom of choice goes away and it will be required. I believe it’s the same for schools. 

I don’t believe the FDA will fully authorize by the school year. we will see. But once they do, schools will require a covid vaccine for attendance and a bunch of idiots will try to make a political stand when no stand was made for the MMR vaccine they are required to get. Because idiots. 
 

 

hmm, do you have children?  Are the risks for measels, mumps, or rubella the same for children as the risk of covid? Do children spread covid or are they more likely to catch covid from adults?  My wife and I were vaccinated quickly and I think all adults should be.  But I have not decided whether or not I'll vaccinate my kids, all of which are under 8.  Mainly because the facts of disease state and transmission in children don't support the necessity.  

[gyroprotagonist 2591]

i don't think the problem with variants will be incubated in the US.  The astronomical advantage that we have on vax supply and rollout is so far out in front of the rest of the world it's sorta embarrassing.  you are seeing countries that did a decent job mitigating the virus now suffer fatigue and they don't have the vax to prop them up from relaxing/eliminating C19 protocols and their cases are going up.  Time will tell if a variant emerges that truly sidesteps the current immunity given by infection and vaxs, but there is no evidence other than some diminished efficacy that variants are a huge threat to start increasing body count vs the vaxed/recovered population.  

the biggest problem the US will face is dumbfucks like Tucker C. 'just asking questions' about the vax.  JFC i saw a clip on twitter and does he ever make a statement?  or just 'ask questions'?   Maybe after the Dominion suits these shows have to move to a Jeopardy format and raise all issues in the form of a question. 

They should have named the vax after Trump.  Imagine if he did not get it in secret and it was big public spectacle and hyped up for him and his admin.  someone who had the disease, then also got vaxxed anyway.  mindblown.  at least Trump has encouraged people to get the vax when asked about it (at least in a some interviews i had read). 

 

[gmr548 16504]

 
non aggy

Not a phrase I’d use to describe most of the stars of this thread.

[BabaYaga 15210]

37 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

FWIW, I've had several employees say they couldn't get the vaccine if they've had Covid within 90 days. If BabaYaga is saying "there is no need to get the vaccine" then he's wrong. But I don't read that. But I'll wait for him to comment.

Not saying that.  Saying this ever shifting narrative of mandatory vacs and "papers" to possibly return to any sense of normalcy is heavy-handed nonsense.  

[dcar00 14035]

38 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

YEAH! The NYT Doom is back!!!!

VARIANTS!

[BabaYaga 15210]

20 minutes ago, Viper said:

I thought this was an interesting long read from a writer at Nature, Science, and the NYT looking at the possibility that it accidentally escaped from a lab while being studied.

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

seems like this scenario is gaining some traction lately.

An advanced corona virus a thousand miles away from the caves the bats in question live, in the middle of winter when there are no bats anyway, in a lab cited numerous times for safety concerns that just happens to be a level 4 biolab right next to where the outbreak happened and also doing gain of function testing on corona virus variants and their transmission efficacy?  

In a country that has mysteriously wiped all data servers on the lab results and mysteriously made all the samples disappear, put a gag order on their entire medical community and seen multiple scientists that directly worked in the lab and reporters that dared report on it.....also just disappear.  

Seems like something we'd want to investigate - which we still are completely unable to via the CCP having banned anyone and everyone from even stepping foot in the region.  And the investigations that were initially done, over a period of three whole hours, were done by friends and colleagues of those doing the research, not any independent agency or outside party.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

24 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Not saying that.  Saying this ever shifting narrative of mandatory vacs and "papers" to possibly return to any sense of normalcy is heavy-handed nonsense.  

Just @DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt creating Strawmen again. 

[washparkhorn 9935]

Covid demographics shifting:

Spoiler

After spending much of the past year tending to elderly patients, doctors are seeing a clear demographic shift: young and middle-aged adults make up a growing share of the patients in covid-19 hospital wards.

This story also ran on NPR. It can be republished for free.

It’s both a sign of the country’s success in protecting the elderly through vaccination and an urgent reminder that younger generations will pay a heavy price if the outbreak is allowed to simmer in communities across the country.

“We’re now seeing people in their 30s, 40s and 50s — young people who are really sick,” said Dr. Vishnu Chundi, a specialist in infectious diseases and chair of the Chicago Medical Society’s covid-19 task force. “Most of them make it, but some do not. … I just lost a 32-year-old with two children, so it’s heartbreaking.”

Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized covid patients in the country — about 36% of all hospital admissions. Those ages 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults 65 and older have fallen significantly.

 

About 32% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated, but the vast majority are people older than 65 — a group that was prioritized in the initial phase of the vaccine rollout.

Although new infections are gradually declining nationwide, some regions have contended with a resurgence of the coronavirus in recent months — what some have called a “fourth wave” — propelled by the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, which is estimated to be somewhere between 40% and 70% more contagious.

As many states ditch pandemic precautions, this more virulent strain still has ample room to spread among the younger population, which remains broadly susceptible to the disease.

The emergence of more dangerous strains of the virus in the U.S. — including variants first discovered in South Africa and Brazil — has made the vaccination effort all the more urgent.

“We are in a whole different ballgame,” said Judith Malmgren, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington.

Rising infections among young adults create a “reservoir of disease” that eventually “spills over into the rest of society” — one that has yet to reach herd immunity — and portends a broader surge in cases, she said.

Fortunately, the chance of dying of covid remains very small for people under 50, but this age group can become seriously ill or experience long-term symptoms after the initial infection. People with underlying conditions such as obesity and heart disease are also more likely to become seriously ill.

“B.1.1.7 doesn’t discriminate by age, and when it comes to young people, our messaging on this is still too soft,” Malmgren said.

Hospitals Filled With Younger, Sicker People

Across the country, the influx of younger patients with covid has startled clinicians who describe hospital beds filled with patients, many of whom appear sicker than what was seen during previous waves of the pandemic.

“A lot of them are requiring ICU care,” said Dr. Michelle Barron, head of infection prevention and control at UCHealth, one of Colorado’s large hospital systems, as compared with earlier in the pandemic.

The median age of covid patients at UCHealth hospitals has dropped by more than 10 years in the past few weeks, from 59 down to about 48 years old, Barron said.

“I think we will continue to see that, especially if there’s not a lot of vaccine uptake in these groups,” she said.

While most hospitals are far from the onslaught of illness seen during the winter, the explosion of cases in Michigan underscores the potential fallout of loosening restrictions when a large share of adults are not yet vaccinated.

There’s strong evidence that all three vaccines being used in the U.S. provide good protection against the U.K. variant.

One study suggests that the B.1.1.7 variant doesn’t lead to more severe illness, as was previously thought. However, patients infected with the variant appear more likely to have more of the virus in their bodies than those with the previously dominant strain, which may help explain why it spreads more easily.

“We think that this may be causing more of these hospitalizations in younger people,” said Dr. Rachael Lee at the University of Alabama-Birmingham hospital.

Lee’s hospital also has observed an uptick in younger patients. As in other Southern states, Alabama has a low rate of vaccine uptake.

But even in Washington state, where much of the population is opting to get the vaccine, hospitalizations have been rising steadily since early March, especially among young people. In the Seattle area, more people in their 20s are now being hospitalized for covid than people in their 70s, according to Dr. Jeff Duchin, public health chief officer for Seattle and King County.

“We don’t yet have enough younger adults vaccinated to counteract the increased ease with which the variants spread,” said Duchin at a recent press briefing.

Nationwide, about 32% of people in their 40s are fully vaccinated, compared with 27% of people in their 30s. That share drops to about 18% for 18- to 29-year-olds.

“I’m hopeful that the death curve is not going to rise as fast, but it is putting a strain on the health system,” said Dr. Nathaniel Schlicher, an emergency physician and president of the Washington State Medical Association.

Schlicher, also in his late 30s, recalls with horror two of his recent patients — close to his age and previously healthy — who were admitted with new-onset heart failure caused by covid.

“I’ve seen that up close and that’s what scares the hell out of me,” he said.

“I understand young people feeling invincible, but what I would just tell them is — don’t be afraid of dying, be afraid of heart failure, lung damage and not being able to do the things that you love to do.”

Will Younger Adults Get Vaccinated?

Doctors and public health experts hope that the troubling spike in hospitalizations among the younger demographic will be temporary — one that vaccines will soon counteract. It was only on April 19 that all adults became eligible for a covid vaccine, although they were available in some states much sooner.

But some concerning national polls indicate a sizable portion of teens and adults in their 20s and 30s don’t necessarily have plans to get vaccinated.

“We just need to make it super easy — not inconvenient in any way,” said Malmgren, the Washington epidemiologist. “We have to put our minds to it and think a little differently.”

https://khn.org/news/article/covid-cases-hospitalizations-rise-in-younger-adults/

Edited May 4, 2021 by washparkhorn

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Well, duh. That's how it's supposed to work.  I sweater god, media sucks ass.

[Dahobbs 17444]

15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Well, duh. That's how it's supposed to work.  I sweater god, media sucks ass.

What's your problem with that article? Is there something in there you think is incorrect? All of that sounds like good information and solid reporting to me. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What's your problem with that article? Is there something in there you think is incorrect? All of that sounds like good information and solid reporting to me. 

BODIES IN TREES!!!!!!!!

It's very little science,  very much conjecture, and a whole lot of statistical manipulation / doom porn headline

[InkaUtexas 25508]

Yes, but if it convinces the yutes to get vaccinated who cares. 

[Dahobbs 17444]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

BODIES IN TREES!!!!!!!!

It's very little science,  very much conjecture, and a whole lot of statistical manipulation / doom porn headline

You're reading into that headline your fears. The article isn't spouting doom talk. It is saying the simple reality: young people can get sick too and are become a greater part of the mix. It's also weird to say its very little science, the important scientific information is quotes from experts in the article. The overall message is a sound one: everyone that can should get vaccinated, include younger adults. I find it odd that you have such an intense emotional reaction to this mundane bit of information. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, but if it convinces the yutes to get vaccinated who cares. 

Fair, but I prefer my news be less Pravda. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

young people can get sick too

So glad they took the time to tell us this important fact.

[Guest Lobo]

We've been lying to 18-30 year olds for centuries in this country to get them to do shit we needed them to do.  

"Young man, you can either visit CVS twice for a vaccination or we can invent another Vietnam War, your call."  

[Dahobbs 17444]

18 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So glad they took the time to tell us this important fact.

So you agree it is a fact? I really don't understand the problem. The information is true. The article provides context for the current stage of the pandemic and explains why it is still important that young people get vaccinated. Given that a lot of people don't believe vaccinations are important and don't believe young people can get seriously sick, isn't it important to get correct information out there? Maybe you know this information. Others don't, with some are being actively fed disinformation. Why does the truth make you uncomfortable? 

[The Dog 43802]

The problem is this has been a disease that primarily has affected the old and infirm, but it always could make younger and healthier people very sick. Now that the restrictions are easing or being completely removed, the 20-somethings  are ready to rumble and this is a demographic that just doesn't see the doctor unless they are sick. And even then they go to their local "doc in a box" at CVS or Walgreens. 

They don't get seasonal flu vaccines so they certainly aren't getting this shot unless prodded. 

It's no accident the current "hot spots" are college campuses. 

 

[DDD Dad 14251]

2 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

hmm, do you have children?  Are the risks for measels, mumps, or rubella the same for children as the risk of covid? Do children spread covid or are they more likely to catch covid from adults?  My wife and I were vaccinated quickly and I think all adults should be.  But I have not decided whether or not I'll vaccinate my kids, all of which are under 8.  Mainly because the facts of disease state and transmission in children don't support the necessity.  

Well, and Pfizer just started its Phase 1/2/3 study for children under 12 at the end of March, so you have some time before even a decision is necessary.