Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Wally Fairway 5680]

5 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

That there won’t be enough cases to overwhelm the health care infrastructure and it’s not deadly enough. 

It has already overwhelmed the (unprepared) system to test people, so don't discount how it will spread due to people transmitting the disease before they are symptomatic.

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

We ded.

yeah - I have some family members in assisted living and if it gets into those facilities it will spread like wildfire; and with old people crippled immune symptoms the fatality rate will be much higher than the general population. 

[Somnio 751]

14 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

That there won’t be enough cases to overwhelm the health care infrastructure and it’s not deadly enough. 

So it is starting to look like it's not as contagious as previously thought?

Or like few will actually need to be in the hospital?

I have not seen that data yet.  It looks pretty rough in China, Iran, S. Korea, and Italy though.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Somnio

[GreenspointTexas 10016]

“It just shows you what can happen. Six weeks ago, eight weeks ago, you never heard of this. All of the sudden, it’s got the world aflutter. But it will work out.”
 

- president trump. 1 hr ago

[Loco 3754]

Color up and deal!

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19376]

48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Gibraltar, Ukraine, and Argentina joined the club.  

NYC now has a case where they didn’t travel, and they don’t have a known history of contact with confirmed patients.   

The guy also is serious and has a history of respiratory issues.  

This is because Corona has been in NYC for ages.  Just have not been testing.

[FWD 297]

The lack of nationwide testing for this is outrageous. We are basically flying blind without accurate and widespread testing, and when you look and see what countries like South Korea have put together there is really no excuse.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

26 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Don't you have to shit on someone to get ebola? Don't want to mess up this thread but that seems a little easier to control. 

Germany is fucked.

[Loco 3754]

6 minutes ago, FWD said:

The lack of nationwide testing for this is outrageous. We are basically flying blind without accurate and widespread testing, and when you look and see what countries like South Korea have put together there is really no excuse.

There is an excuse and there also is a reason.  But that's for a different thread.

 

3rd case in FLA confirmed.  Close contact with the chick who visited Italy.   

[drt 647]

Welp, first patient in Austin being tested by CDC as it fits the travel criteria, apparently the testing started Monday.

[Skipper 6416]

54 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

So several of my patients had their appointment with the infectious disease doctor cancelled today.  I’m definitely more anxious than I was this AM.  Politics are in full play here.  Pathetic.  
 

Test more people you fucking idiots.  

You think state/local or CDC directed?  I've taken at face that our lack of testing was a result of the CDC testing kick disaster,  but watching the 2 administration press conferences, I'm open to the possibility it's a strategy at this point to kick the can down the road as long as possible and then once it becomes too obvious to ignore, shift the narrative to "there is a treatment on the horizon that will solve it".   I really hope we're not intentionally refusing to test at 100% because of BS limiting "protocols" but it certainly wouldn't shock me.

[Loco 3754]

7 dead in Washington...  but it's probably just like a cold or something 

[ChiTownDoc 21363]

42 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I thought you were saying we were turning patients away to avoid positive tests from accumulating. 

No.  They want to test but a sick guy w COPD Exac won’t look that different from a COVID patient and if you don’t test wtf do you do?   

[ChiTownDoc 21363]

Things in real time getting much more tenuous.  Short those stonks.  
 

edit:  NM.  Saw we are down 900. I checked last when we were up 200.  Fuck

Edited March 3, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Goredho 17665]

39 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Don't you have to shit on someone to get ebola? Don't want to mess up this thread but that seems a little easier to control. 

John McAfee begs for sheisser to differ.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Goredho

[Macanudo 13360]

15 minutes ago, FWD said:

The lack of nationwide testing for this is outrageous. We are basically flying blind without accurate and widespread testing, and when you look and see what countries like South Korea have put together there is really no excuse.

It's a whole lot easier to set up something like that for a country that is about the size of Indiana. 

[triplehorn 2664]

34 minutes ago, Somnio said:

So it is starting to look like it's not as contagious as previously thought?

Or like few will actually need to be in the hospital?

I have not seen that data yet.  It looks pretty rough in China, Iran, S. Korea, and Italy though.

The contagiousness is statistically calculated using R naught (R0).  R0 of a bug is how many people will get infected from every one infected case.  If the R0 is less than one, it gets contained/dies out.  Influenza R0 is typically about 1-1.5.  Covid-19 is tracking between R0 of 2-3.  Search the usual ways to get an idea.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by triplehorn

[Trey3216 15458]

At least the President just said that we are working on getting hospitals paid for taking in and testing COVID patients if they don’t have healthcare.   That’s encouraging 

[bolverk 30405]

4 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

It's a whole lot easier to set up something like that for a country that is about the size of Indiana. 

It's a country of 52 million, and we've known for weeks now that this thing was coming.

[El Diablo 4232]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

At least the President just said that we are working on getting hospitals paid for taking in and testing COVID patients if they don’t have healthcare.   That’s encouraging 

Excellent news! Is one of the symptoms of COVID a weeping rash in the groin region?

Asking for a friend.

[InkaUtexas 27086]

seeing the USG contracting groups ramp up. From GSA for FEMA (Masks, gloves, sanitizer) to the VA looking for gowns, they are getting ready. FEMA talking about the need for temporary sanitation stations set up around the country. 

[NoName 17250]

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

You think state/local or CDC directed?  I've taken at face that our lack of testing was a result of the CDC testing kick disaster,  but watching the 2 administration press conferences, I'm open to the possibility it's a strategy at this point to kick the can down the road as long as possible and then once it becomes too obvious to ignore, shift the narrative to "there is a treatment on the horizon that will solve it".   I really hope we're not intentionally refusing to test at 100% because of BS limiting "protocols" but it certainly wouldn't shock me.

IIRC, Texas is following the CDC's direction across the board.

So kind of both, but mostly CDC at this point - at least in Texas

[NoName 17250]

 

Iran Update:

 

Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran.html

what a shitshow

Quote

 

Iran’s leaders confidently predicted just two weeks ago that the coronavirus contagion ravaging China would not be a problem in their country. They even bragged of exporting face masks to their Chinese trading partners.

Now Iran is battered by coronavirus infections that have killed 77 people, among the most outside of China, officials said Tuesday. But instead of receiving government help, overwhelmed doctors and nurses say they have been warned by security forces to keep quiet. And some officials say Tehran’s hierarchy is understating the true extent of the outbreak — probably, experts contend, because it will be viewed as a failure that enemies will exploit.

As the world wrestles with the spread of the coronavirus, the epidemic in Iran is a lesson in what happens when a secretive state with limited resources tries to play down an outbreak, and then finds it very difficult to contain.

 

 

Quote

 

A prominent pathologist in Tehran said laboratory staff members testing for the coronavirus were told that they had been threatened with interrogation and arrest if they provided information to the news media.

“Disgraceful,” the pathologist said in a telephone interview. “By turning this into a national security issue, they are putting more pressure and stress on doctors and medical teams and creating an environment of chaos and fear.”

 

Quote

Dr. Mohsen Basiri, an Iranian physician now in Houston, said that in a conference call on Sunday about emergency supplies his colleagues in Iran had said that security agents forced doctors to fill out false certificates for deaths that appeared to be coronavirus, ascribing them instead to lung or heart failure in order to avoid acknowledging fatalities linked to the epidemic.

 

Quote

Then Tehran boasted of having sent supplies of domestically produced hospital masks to China, depleting Iranian supplies as other countries were quietly stockpiling their own. Now, Dr. Afkhami said, “its shortage of face masks is self-inflicted.”

 

 

[Dnaguy 12750]

50 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

We ded.

Nothing left to do other than to just:

[Bevo Num1 1082]

I think it's safe to say that the world was woefully underprepared for this kind of shit.

It seems like the need to contain panic is greater than the need to contain the virus. Fucking crazy.

[Loco 3754]

1 minute ago, Bevo Num1 said:

It seems like the need to contain panic is greater than the need to contain the virus. 

no

[Neonmoon 38130]

Iran told people it’s nothing, and to keep meeting in public. Not to mention the Middle East is a smokers paradise. Not shocked the bodies are piling up 

[MoJames 8258]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Don't you have to shit on someone to get ebola? Don't want to mess up this thread but that seems a little easier to control. 

No. Certainly not getting shit on is a part of the equation...

 

TRANSMISSION

Epidemics of Ebola virus disease are generally thought to begin when an individual becomes infected through contact with the tissues or body fluids of an infected animal. Once the patient becomes ill or dies, the virus then spreads to others who come into direct contact with the infected individual’s blood, skin, or other body fluids. Studies in laboratory primates have found that animals can be infected with Ebola virus through droplet inoculation of virus into the mouth or eyes [85,86], suggesting that human infection can result from the inadvertent transfer of virus to these sites from contaminated hands.

[Pato del Muerto 53642]

29 minutes ago, Loco said:

7 dead in Washington...  but it's probably just like a cold or something 

At least it’s not Ebola 

[Gatorubet 30857]

You wanna really piss him off let it slip that you went anal on his lil girl.  

He hated it when I told him.

[Grade of D as in David 13256]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Don't you have to shit on someone to get ebola? Don't want to mess up this thread but that seems a little easier to control. 

Have you seen the shart thread? With the number of people on this site alone that publicly admit to shitting their pants I'm surprised Dallas didn't look like the opening scenes of the walking dead.

[Pato del Muerto 53642]

31 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The contagiousness is statistically calculated using R naught (R0).  R0 of a bug is how many people will get infected from every one infected case.  If the R0 is less than one, it gets contained/dies out.  Influenza R0 is typically about 1-1.5.  Covid-19 is tracking between R0 of 2-3.  Search the usual ways to get an idea.

 

 

No cases under 15 years of age?

so is there an age component to acquisition/symptomatic in addition to/connected to the age component of severity and death?

[Loco 3754]

now 9 deaths in Washington....  that was quick

Edited March 3, 2020 by Loco

[VABuckeye 2481]

That old folks home emptying out?

[Loco 3754]

I assume so..  no details

 

[gecko 1104]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Vice President and others in the fed government wouldn’t be giving daily briefings if they didn’t think this would affect a lot of people this year.   

They're giving daily briefings because the 24 hour news outlets are out of control throwing around the latest "breaking news" without context or even basic sourcing.  It's not political per se it's their basic appetite to fill the news with sensational reporting.  The best reporting on this is on CNBC Squawk Box (5a to 8a ouch) as they do a good job of connecting the virus to the impact on our ives and pocketbooks.

[Grade of D as in David 13256]

1 hour ago, akhornfan said:

That there won’t be enough cases to overwhelm the health care infrastructure and it’s not deadly enough. 

Are you serious Clark?

You realize that the total population of the US has grown from 210m to 330m from 1975 to today. The number of hospital beds over that same time period shrunk from 1.5 m to just over 900k. Additionally many of these beds are currently occupied because hospitals are businesses here, they're not going to just keep excess inventory sitting around unused. 

This also disproportionately targets the old and sick/unhealthy.  We have a ton more unhealthy people waddling around these days that might start getting hit with this.

Throw in a 2 week hospitalization per infection and we could be in some shit.

[Pato del Muerto 53642]

If that old folks home can get good at threading the PR needle, they may have found away around assisted suicide laws. Check your loved one in for a 60 day stay and wait.  Probably could charge exorbitant  fees and still have a waiting list for people tired of waiting. 

[InkaUtexas 27086]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If that old folks home can get good at threading the PR needle, they may have found away around assisted suicide laws. Check your loved one in for a 60 day stay and wait.  Probably could charge exorbitant  fees and still have a waiting list for people tired of waiting. 

Damn man, you are evil. I love it! Surl at its finest. 

On another note, Anchor on CNN just said why is SXSW going to go on. 

[Loco 3754]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

If that old folks home can get good at threading the PR needle, they may have found away around assisted suicide laws. Check your loved one in for a 60 day stay and wait.  Probably could charge exorbitant  fees and still have a waiting list for people tired of waiting. 

or a free home delivery and 30 day trial...  it's hard to cancel though

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

 

And the BBC just said the WHO said the current CFR is tracking at 3.4.

Feel like I'm at a corporate retreat. 

[Pato del Muerto 53642]

1 minute ago, BBQ2Bayou said:

Feel like I'm at a corporate retreat. 

BBC is another example of an acronym with multiple uses

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

10 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Are you serious Clark?

You realize that the total population of the US has grown from 210m to 330m from 1975 to today. The number of hospital beds over that same time period shrunk from 1.5 m to just over 900k. Additionally many of these beds are currently occupied because hospitals are businesses here, they're not going to just keep excess inventory sitting around unused. 

This also disproportionately targets the old and sick/unhealthy.  We have a ton more unhealthy people waddling around these days that might start getting hit with this.

Throw in a 2 week hospitalization per infection and we could be in some shit.

From my own recent experience, we had to wait about 6 hours in the ER for a vacancy to open up in the ICU at Memorial Hermann The Woodlands when my wife had pneumonia in both her lungs on NYE.  Luckily we went to a relatively new ER that few people know about, so we weren't occupying an ER room that was needed by others at the time.

Edited March 3, 2020 by hopkinsnhorns

[Loco 3754]

Crisis averted!

 

[akhornfan 4]

15 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Are you serious Clark?

You realize that the total population of the US has grown from 210m to 330m from 1975 to today. The number of hospital beds over that same time period shrunk from 1.5 m to just over 900k. Additionally many of these beds are currently occupied because hospitals are businesses here, they're not going to just keep excess inventory sitting around unused. 

This also disproportionately targets the old and sick/unhealthy.  We have a ton more unhealthy people waddling around these days that might start getting hit with this.

Throw in a 2 week hospitalization per infection and we could be in some shit.

I’m making my guess. Feel free to make your own. 
 

it’s very easy to say what could happen. I’m not arguing that, but it doesn’t look to me like enough people will get infected and enough of those leading to cause the sort of catastrophic scenarios being thrown out there 

[F250 29241]

Just got a notice from my kid's high school. Due to a teacher shopping at North Star mall this weekend the school will be undergoing a deep clean. I don't know what that means but it's a cleaning that is deep.

[Brisketexan 107107]

59 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The contagiousness is statistically calculated using R naught (R0).  R0 of a bug is how many people will get infected from every one infected case.  If the R0 is less than one, it gets contained/dies out.  Influenza R0 is typically about 1-1.5.  Covid-19 is tracking between R0 of 2-3.  Search the usual ways to get an idea.

 

 

This is the key information here, and it matches up with what several of us here have suggested thus far:

Quote

* Mortality estimated likely < 1%
* R0 = 2.2
Estimates highly influenced by missing mild cases.

This will be more virulent (that is, more transmittable) than the flu.  So, more people will get it - maybe twice as many will get it.  Then, from THAT group of infected, the death rate will be significantly greater than the flu -- maybe 10 times the death rate.  So, 10 times the death rate, in a pool of 2 times as many infected people, gets you 20 times the number of deaths.

If those numbers end up being correct (and again, WAY early still -- they could be off significantly in either direction), then this is really, really bad....but not catastrophic.  Flu kills 12k to 60k per year in the US.  Multiply that by 20....you get a range of deaths from 240,000 to over 1.2 million.  That's....bad...really bad....as in, most of us will know someone who dies from it, but again, not catastrophic to society as a whole.

Buckle up - it's not going to be as bad as some alarmists would say.  Which doesn't matter, because it will be plenty bad enough.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Pato del Muerto 53642]

7 minutes ago, Loco said:

Crisis averted!

 

Someone yesterday told my wife that Asians are leaving China/Korea/Japan for Germany, then flying to Orlando from Germany to stay at Disney properties and vacation to get away from the virus. 
so she of course told me. Not a bad plan really, if it’s being used. I can picture a travel agent making hay with such a pitch. 

[XYZ 2154]

17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

BBC is another example of an acronym with multiple uses

You’re on fire today.

By the way, you DO know that you fucked up translating your username to Spanish, right?

[Loco 3754]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Someone yesterday told my wife that Asians are leaving China/Korea/Japan for Germany, then flying to Orlando from Germany to stay at Disney properties and vacation to get away from the virus. 
so she of course told me. Not a bad plan really, if it’s being used. I can picture a travel agent making hay with such a pitch. 

[Radical Larry 28831]

Just got a notice from my kid's high school. Due to a teacher shopping at North Star mall this weekend the school will be undergoing a deep clean. I don't know what that means but it's a cleaning that is deep.

That cleaning runs deep, so deep

So deep put her school to sleep