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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
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Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Loco

Loco 3752

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Was reading a Scientific American article.  It seems the genie is likely out of the bottle, we are probably witnessing a new human virus that will continue to circulate.   Well we have the DNA so hopefully a vaccine will eventually be available.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think it’s a little scary when there are already 4K cases

SARS was only 8K total.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/

Fatality rate being lower is a great sign. 

I don't know if we'll ever know the true SARS totals.

With the rise in confirmed cases, it is very interesting the fatality rate keeps dropping.  There were several articles that mentioned that this was a real possibility - namely, that less severe folks would not be tested right away, or others who were infected but were successfully fighting it on their own would initially slip through the cracks (maybe not show up at the hospitals, etc.), and that eventually their numbers would bump up the totals of infected.  

I saw an article that mentioned that part of the big jump today is that individual provinces are providing their own numbers, instead of filtering through central channels -  Beijing/CCDC or whatever.  I can't find anything that says whether these are freshly discovered cases, or whether they were a part of the testing or verification backlog (and possibly Beijing slow-rolling the numbers).  Bugs the shit out of me, but communism/dominant central government, so what are you going to do.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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The really good news is that the number of infections outside of China hasn't risen dramatically.  Between yesterday and today, the official # of cases in China jumped 1,800, around a 65% jump.  Again, I don't know if that's backlog that's being cleared, or actual cases that developed in the past week, but that was the jump.

Meanwhile, in the past few days, the number of infected outside of China jumped around 8% to 66, and still no deaths, and most. are stable and/or recovering.  Could be the age thing though - younger travelers better able to handle it.

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CleverNickname

CleverNickname 1291

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https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call

Quote

Lead researcher and dean of HKU’s faculty of medicine Gabriel Leung said his team estimated there were 25,630 patients showing symptoms in Wuhan and that the number would double in 6.2 days, according to mathematical modelling based on infection figures worldwide as of Saturday. 

Leung said his team’s research showed self-sustaining human-to-human transmission was already happening in all major mainland cities and warned that a pandemic might be close.

 

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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3150

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It seems inevitable that this makes it to most major U.S. cities. It’s initial spread reminds me a little more of H1N1 than SARS or MERS. I realize they are different viruses but that’s the feeling I get based on what has happened so quickly since this was discovered.

I’m curious at what point the U.S. and other first world countries completely shut down transportation with China. I’m sure there are a significant number of U.S. citizens traveling or working in China at any point in time, and I hate the thought of them being stranded in this situation, but also not crazy about having everyone rush back to the U.S. right now. Just a bad situation to be in.

I’m also curious the economic impact to China from all of this. If the U.S. had 50 million people quarantined, it seems like it would be devastating. Not to mention, we have no idea how long this will drag on.

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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3150

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It seems inevitable that this makes it to most major U.S. cities. It’s initial spread reminds me a little more of H1N1 than SARS or MERS. I realize they are different viruses but that’s the feeling I get based on what has happened so quickly since this was discovered.

I’m curious at what point the U.S. and other first world countries completely shut down transportation with China. I’m sure there are a significant number of U.S. citizens traveling or working in China at any point in time, and I hate the thought of them being stranded in this situation, but also not crazy about having everyone rush back to the U.S. right now. Just a bad situation to be in.

I’m also curious the economic impact to China from all of this. If the U.S. had 50 million people quarantined, it seems like it would be devastating. Not to mention, we have no idea how long this will drag on.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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1 hour ago, Bruno Sardine said:

I don’t know the first thing about this disease, and don’t pretend to. Your comments about the connection between the aftermath of World War I and the spread of the 1918 flu make sense.

WWI created millions of refugees who lived in shitty, cramped conditions.  Then you had millions of soldiers who had a brutal existence in wet trenches that didn't help their immune systems at all, and an enormous amount of wounded, and then the war ends, and they all move fairly rapidly all over Europe, or back to their home countries.  Very rapid movement - guys wanting to get home crammed into railcars, overloaded ships, not giving a damn if they were sick or not.

One of the big specials on the 1918 flu on PBS mentioned that if it had happened 10 years earlier or 10 years later, the numbers would not have been nearly as bad.

1 hour ago, Bruno Sardine said:

But your comments about people dying due to lack of modern medical practices apply to 1917, 1914, 1909, 1899, etc., and thus do not address the extraordinary measures taken by authorities during the 1918 flu pandemic. 

They took extraordinary measures - like you said, they worked hard to quarantine.  And it was special - it had a rapid transmission (again, helped along by the destruction and end of WWI)

The problem was that the majority survived the actual flu, but died of bacterial pneumonia caused by said flu (and weakened immune systems, helped along by shitty hygiene/sanitation/etc.).  

Authorities had very little with which to fight bacterial pneumonia back then.

I'm talking out my ass, but I would guess that many who die of the flu here in 2019-2020, are dying from secondary problems caused by it - the elderly hit by pneumonia, etc.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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14 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’m curious at what point the U.S. and other first world countries completely shut down transportation with China. I’m sure there are a significant number of U.S. citizens traveling or working in China at any point in time, and I hate the thought of them being stranded in this situation, but also not crazy about having everyone rush back to the U.S. right now. Just a bad situation to be in.

There's already people in Congress asking why we aren't cutting off air travel with China for now.  A few days ago, our President publicly stated that China is being transparent:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1220818115354923009

And then today said we are in close communication with them:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1221809170673958913

It's no CR to say that many in Congress listen very closely to various companies/industries, and shutting down air travel will drastically impact those companies - not just employees traveling for business, but many high-dollar items, parts, products, phones, computers, watches, other small electronics, etc. ship by air.  That's not even touching on the airline/airport industry itself.

Because it's an election year, if the numbers are seriously ramping up, or we start getting a lot of victims in the US, including deaths, I doubt we will keep air travel open with China past the end of February.   Nobody in Congress running for reelection wants to be standing around in November saying "hey, we needed to trust the Chinese, and we needed to keep air travel flowing, sorry your grandpa died!!"

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Patron

Patron 230

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I hope this continues.

So far, the new coronavirus doesn’t seem to spread as easily among people as SARS or influenza. Most of the cases so far that spread between people were of family members and health workers who had contact with patients. That suggests the new virus isn’t well adapted to infect people.

https://apnews.com/8abebaa0abb67a92c1efe8501a122d0d

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Bevo

Bevo 13516

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5 hours ago, Patron said:

I hope this continues.

So far, the new coronavirus doesn’t seem to spread as easily among people as SARS or influenza. Most of the cases so far that spread between people were of family members and health workers who had contact with patients. That suggests the new virus isn’t well adapted to infect people.

https://apnews.com/8abebaa0abb67a92c1efe8501a122d0d

That article is wrong. The transmission rate seems high - The Ro is roughly equivalent to influenza and SARS. On the other hand, like I said previously a few times, the mortality rate is probably going to be 0.4%, nowhere near the rate that was initially reported. This is because the number of infected people in Wuhan was being severely under-reported while the death rate was accurate. People die in hospitals but the infected may stay away from hospitals if their symptoms don't seem life threatening. Those people who stayed away weren't counted, thus skewing the numbers. Plus, the Chinese government may have initially wanted to suppress the news. In any case, just by looking at the numbers outside of Wuhan, it is easy to get more accurate numbers because those people were quarantined and counted as they entered.

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CleverNickname

CleverNickname 1291

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6 hours ago, Patron said:

I hope this continues.

So far, the new coronavirus doesn’t seem to spread as easily among people as SARS or influenza. Most of the cases so far that spread between people were of family members and health workers who had contact with patients. That suggests the new virus isn’t well adapted to infect people.

Every study poll puts the R0 well above the flu. Seasonal fly is median of 1.3; this 2019-nCoV has a similar R0 to SARS, currently estimated at 2.6. Which is lucky, as it appears to be infectious before symptoms show (unlike SARS). Normal flu mortality is about 0.1%, SARS was 11%. Estimates for this are difficult since I'm not sure you can trust the PRC numbers. Probably no worse than 3%, maybe well lower if the true number of cases is order(s) of magnitude greater. Presumably it's harder to substantially juke death stats while many infected might never get tested (shortages) or never be sick enough to need a hospital.

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

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Woo Han! Got Us All in Check officially over here in Germany as of today.

Specifically the district of Munich where I live has the honor. It’s the first documented “person to person” transmission outside of China. Some poor dude caught it from a colleague from Wuhan who was in town for work.

Was nice knowing y’all.

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NoName

NoName 16287

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18 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

The flu shot only covers two strains A & B if a third strain of the flu pops up like this year the shot has no effect on stopping strain C, D ect.

i think a lot of folks got the quadrivalent flu shot this year but even then it is just 2x flu A and 2x flu B - doesn't change your point overall but just adding this

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NoName

NoName 16287

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody trying to track down those outside of China who have it.    Sounds very promising, as most/all are stable, recovering, or even released.  

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/euvexx/current_status_of_outsidechina_patients/

here is a cool Johns Hopkins Coronavirus tracker/dashboard: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

per this, 98.5% of cases are in mainland China?

edit: looks like @Neonmoon beat me to posting the dashboard

Edited by NoName
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Homesickhorn

Homesickhorn 2202

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15 hours ago, GotThatFire said:

Are we going to name every inevitable disease to come out of China “Kung Flu”? Imo that’s a great name but too China general. Would be best suited to the “last” flu to ever come out of China. 
 

My vote goes to WuFlu, for this one. 

Due to timing of Disney releasing the remake of their animated classic, I'm going to throw 'Flulan' out there as my contribution. 

Edited by Homesickhorn
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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3353

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Just now, Liquor and Poker said:

People keep clamoring for this.  Honest question- what is the real effect of the WHO declaring?  Is it just the pressure It puts on the individual governments?

I think so. Supposed to further facilitate data sharing by WHO taking "complete" control. Still not sure how well that works with a country like China. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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2 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Every study poll puts the R0 well above the flu. Seasonal fly is median of 1.3; this 2019-nCoV has a similar R0 to SARS, currently estimated at 2.6. Which is lucky, as it appears to be infectious before symptoms show (unlike SARS). Normal flu mortality is about 0.1%, SARS was 11%. Estimates for this are difficult since I'm not sure you can trust the PRC numbers. Probably no worse than 3%, maybe well lower if the true number of cases is order(s) of magnitude greater. Presumably it's harder to substantially juke death stats while many infected might never get tested (shortages) or never be sick enough to need a hospital.

We are at 79 cases outside of China, and so far no deaths.  Meanwhile, the overall mortality has crept down to around 2.2 percent.   Will probably be well lower.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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24 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You know, that may be a pretty good suggestion? Pneumococcal vaccination may lower the mortality rate of the coronavirus.

I’m willing to bet many of the older Chinese folk  don’t get such vaccinations.   

On another note, the US is screening all passengers from China, and opening up quarantine facilities at 20 airports.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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This is what they were worried about.  This involved an auto parts company with manufacturing near Wuhan.  Cut and paste from reddit comments on a German press conference.  

  • Patient in good condition (no fever or respiratory issues), isolated in Munich-Schwabing

  • Contact tracing is ongoing, a hotline will be implemented. No decision yet about screening at the airport.

  • Patient is 33 years old, participated in a meeting on Jan 21 in Starnberg at the automotive supplier Webasto.

  • Another person from China (female), affiliated to Webasto's factory in China, took part as well. She is not from Wuhan, but from Shanghai, however, she was recently visited by her parents from Wuhan. She arrived in Germany on Jan 19 and returned to China on Jan 23, felt ill on the flight and sought medical attention on arrival, where she was tested positive for nCoV. It therefore appears that it was a presymptomatic H2H transmission. They will investigage this further, but at this moment two sources agree that she did not show symptoms in Germany.

  • This was reported back to the company in Bavaria, which informed official agencies and its employees who had contact with the person from China.

  • One employee said he felt ill over the weekend (flu-like symptoms), but felt better on Monday and went back to work again. But he was advised to seek medical attention and tested positive (the result came back within 4-5 hours).

  • The person was kept in the hospital not because of the degree of his symptoms, but due to being isolated and monitored.

  • The patient feels good and his status has not deteriorated.

  • Currently, his contacts and those of the Chinese person are traced, especially in the company and his family. They recommend that these contacts isolate themselves at home. Until now, nobody was found to have symptoms. The have identified 40 close contacts for both. These are isolated at home, but will only be tested should they begin to show symptoms.

  • The Task Force for infectious diseases sees only a moderate risk for Germany.

 

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