Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Bozo_Casanova 26908]

12 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I went through DIA today. 4:30 on a Thursday and it was busy, but not insane. My AA flight from Dallas was at least 95% full. 

I haven’t seen a change yet either. I’m out and back to NYC through JFK early next week, though, and the ticket was CHEAP.

[crimsonlonghorn 2313]

22 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Exactly, and this person who seems like they would be at low risk for serious illness became seriously ill.  Enough so to go to the hospital and fucking up his vacation.

It didn't say he was seriously ill. I think they are putting everyone in the hospital who develops symptoms, whether serious or not. 

[2300 Nueces 163]

Just now, Viper said:

was it because he was seriously ill or because they wanted to take all precautions with it?

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold.  Americans have a problem with wanting everything fixed NOW.  We are way too lazy and pussified.

[NorthLoop 14525]

Just now, 2300 Nueces said:

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold. 

lol no. 

[Goredho 17663]

1 minute ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

It didn't say he was seriously ill. I think they are putting everyone in the hospital who develops symptoms, whether serious or not. 

Local news here in Colorado said he was experiencing difficulty breathing.

[Parliament 14619]

I'm not sure North Dakota really exists. 

We're happy if you keep thinking that. ND is pretty much always self-quarantined. Until all the old people come back from Arizona.

[jeevsie 3790]

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold.  Americans have a problem with wanting everything fixed NOW.  We are way too lazy and pussified.

Not with the deductibles most people have nowadays, especially the hit for an ER visit.  

[StruggleBus 3922]

7 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold.  Americans have a problem with wanting everything fixed NOW.  We are way too lazy and pussified.

What in the fuck are you talking about

[horncyclist 1391]

6 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Not with the deductibles most people have nowadays, especially the hit for an ER visit.  

Health care being such a mess, you're going to have a lot of people toughing it out, going to work and crowded events. We may be one of the least equipped countries to deal with this. Just look at the testing failures. 

[closetojumping 65533]

14 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold.  Americans have a problem with wanting everything fixed NOW.  We are way too lazy and pussified.

Gosh damn do I enjoy your posts. Where have you been? Listen, when you’re not running amok on this thread with one batshit crazy take after another, it limits the contagion that some of these other Kevin Trudeau-fellating goobers can drum up. So, glad you’re back. Now let’s really dig in here as we conjure ways in which at least 100 million people are about to die. 

 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

19 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

For reference, most Americans show up at the hospital when they have a cold.  Americans have a problem with wanting everything fixed NOW.  We are way too lazy and pussified.

Only if they are on Medicaid because of the stupid way it pays for ER vs doctor visits.  

[Hagbard Celine 11290]

https://www.propublica.org/article/i-lived-through-sars-and-reported-on-ebola-these-are-the-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab

fantastic article that defines the parms we should all be discussing and propagating

i'm slammed this morning someone please copypasta plaintext for tapaistas

[NoName 17179]

10 hours ago, Rip76 said:

Sounds super man made.

NoAlexJones.

Man made with a CFR this low? 

Someone is shitty at their job in that case.

[JesusSweatDuck 18155]

10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Gosh damn do I enjoy your posts. Where have you been? Listen, when you’re not running amok on this thread with one batshit crazy take after another, it limits the contagion that some of these other Kevin Trudeau-fellating goobers can drum up. So, glad you’re back. Now let’s really dig in here as we conjure ways in which at least 100 million people are about to die. 

 

Only 100 million?

[Armybrat 41444]

9 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

If you take it in the nose, it’s pretty much a given that you have already taken it through your other orifices.

Barbara Streisand better hunker down.

[mulletpelini 5225]

 

even if you go to costco you dead

[Somnio 751]

1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

Great.  I was in Denver on Wednesday.

Are you also young, affluent and active?

[Armybrat 41444]

31 minutes ago, Parliament said:

54 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I'm not sure North Dakota really exists. 

We're happy if you keep thinking that. ND is pretty much always self-quarantined. Until all the old people come back from Arizona.

Snowbirds gonna screw everything up.

[michaelpshayes 417]

4 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Only 100 million?

this month

[mdleast 8522]

O.J. admires the way Costco vigorously slashes prices

[davidg 4058]

6 minutes ago, mulletpelini said:

 

even if you go to costco you dead

Needs some of the comments 

 

[Somnio 751]

38 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

It didn't say he was seriously ill. I think they are putting everyone in the hospital who develops symptoms, whether serious or not. 

I do not believe that is correct.

[XYZ 2154]

16 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Health care being such a mess, ...

Health care in America is not “a mess”; it’s a huge racket. And the government refuses to prosecute the crimes of the healthcare “industry”, just like they refuse to prosecute the crimes of the finance industry.

[RayDog 682]

The Philippines has a case of local transmission now. He is Muslim and had a stall at a popular mall and attended prayers regularly. So there is probably a big cluster in Manila.

[Somnio 751]

14 minutes ago, NoName said:

Man made with a CFR this low? 

Someone is shitty at their job in that case.

If it kills too many too quickly it will fizzle out before it has the chance to be badass pandemic, not some little bitchass wannabe.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

What's the last state to get hit?  I'm thinking North Dakota or Montana.

Stay the hell out, you’ve been in Denver

 

 

Still cream colored on the map!

 

[Somnio 751]

6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Health care in America is not “a mess”; it’s a huge racket. And the government refuses to prosecute the crimes of the healthcare “industry”, just like they refuse to prosecute the crimes of the finance industry.

But what of the crimes of the Longhorn coaching staff?

[lonestarsooner 123]

46 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I haven’t seen a change yet either. I’m out and back to NYC through JFK early next week, though, and the ticket was CHEAP.

I’m on my 33rd flight of the year tonight, this one from ORD home to IAH. So yep, I probably already have it. Thots and players and all that good shit. Was on the same flight Tuesday night. On the one Tuesday night there were 16 of us in business class and 35 in the rest of the plane. Total of 51 on a bird that holds a couple of hundred. Tonight’s flight is a bit more full. Business class will be full again. But right now there are only 5 people in economy plus in 39 total EP seats. Back of the bus is decently full though. So yep, I’m definitely seeing less people on the birds I’m on. Headed to Tampa next week. We’ll see what those flights look like with spring break looming. But got to enjoy great Italian Beef sandwiches with my bourbon this week so I’ve got that going for me. 

[closetojumping 65533]

4 minutes ago, Somnio said:

But what of the crimes of the Longhorn coaching staff?

Wait. We can prosecute losses to Maryland and Baylor? This fucking site is littered with lawyers. How has no one taken action on this front yet?

[Bigpoppapump 535]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Wait. We can prosecute losses to Maryland and Baylor? This fucking site is littered with lawyers. How has no one taken action on this front yet?

No one is doing that shit pro bono.

[closetojumping 65533]

2 minutes ago, lonestarsooner said:

I’m on my 33rd flight of the year tonight, this one from ORD home to IAH. So yep, I probably already have it. Thots and players and all that good shit. Was on the same flight Tuesday night. On the one Tuesday night there were 16 of us in business class and 35 in the rest of the plane. Total of 51 on a bird that holds a couple of hundred. Tonight’s flight is a bit more full. Business class will be full again. But right now there are only 5 people in economy plus in 39 total EP seats. Back of the bus is decently full though. So yep, I’m definitely seeing less people on the birds I’m on. Headed to Tampa next week. We’ll see what those flights look like with spring break looming. But got to enjoy great Italian Beef sandwiches with my bourbon this week so I’ve got that going for me. 

This is the 66th day of the year. You’re on flight #33? Either you’re playing into stereotype and can’t count, or you have been doing some crazy fucking hustling. Of course on the former and respect on the latter. Damn. 

[HenryJames 67465]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Wait. We can prosecute losses to Maryland and Baylor? This fucking site is littered with lawyers. How has no one taken action on this front yet?

Because this site is littered with shitty lawyers.

[2300 Nueces 163]

34 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Gosh damn do I enjoy your posts. Where have you been? Listen, when you’re not running amok on this thread with one batshit crazy take after another, it limits the contagion that some of these other Kevin Trudeau-fellating goobers can drum up. So, glad you’re back. Now let’s really dig in here as we conjure ways in which at least 100 million people are about to die. 

 

Maybe you and your cocksucking hero deniro can catch it and give us a reference but I have a feeling you'll be running to the ER for a swab.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

A former co-worker who was born in Iran, whose family left when he was 2, said on FB that they’ve lost almost all contact with their extended family back in Iran.   The family members they are in contact with are in Tehran, and said there are restrictions on everything, so it could simply be those other family members don’t have the means for contact, but he’s not too hopeful, because it sounds like things are worse than even this:

Makes me wonder if this is the strain that hammered Wuhan so hard.   

[Loco 3754]

If Italy does have a Baby Boom after this quarantine can we refer to them as Bat Babies?

[Surly Bevo 25778]

26 minutes ago, mulletpelini said:

 

even if you go to costco you dead

Hey maybe Coronavirus was the real killer and he found it?

[GreenspointTexas 9992]

Almost no point in testing people at this juncture

 

its not like people with cold symptoms are gonna quarantine themselves anyway

[nycHorn 3123]

I’m on my 33rd flight of the year tonight, this one from ORD home to IAH. So yep, I probably already have it. Thots and players and all that good shit. Was on the same flight Tuesday night. On the one Tuesday night there were 16 of us in business class and 35 in the rest of the plane. Total of 51 on a bird that holds a couple of hundred. Tonight’s flight is a bit more full. Business class will be full again. But right now there are only 5 people in economy plus in 39 total EP seats. Back of the bus is decently full though. So yep, I’m definitely seeing less people on the birds I’m on. Headed to Tampa next week. We’ll see what those flights look like with spring break looming. But got to enjoy great Italian Beef sandwiches with my bourbon this week so I’ve got that going for me. 

Shit man. I thought I was bad.
Miami next week, Orlando the week after, Denver to Aspen the following week. If I’m still alive after, I’ll try my luck with Moscow in April.

[JesusSweatDuck 18155]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status/1235402290997141505

[Anastasis 23717]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A former co-worker who was born in Iran, whose family left when he was 2, said on FB that they’ve lost almost all contact with their extended family back in Iran.   The family members they are in contact with are in Tehran, and said there are restrictions on everything, so it could simply be those other family members don’t have the means for contact, but he’s not too hopeful, because it sounds like things are worse than even this:

Makes me wonder if this is the strain that hammered Wuhan so hard.   

Talking with one of my colleagues with a lot of family back in China and it's pretty amazing what I am hearing.  The extent of the lock down, broadly across the country in major metros as well as rural areas, would not be tolerated in the US.

[Bozo_Casanova 26908]

12 minutes ago, lonestarsooner said:

I’m on my 33rd flight of the year tonight, this one from ORD home to IAH. So yep, I probably already have it. Thots and players and all that good shit. Was on the same flight Tuesday night. On the one Tuesday night there were 16 of us in business class and 35 in the rest of the plane. Total of 51 on a bird that holds a couple of hundred. Tonight’s flight is a bit more full. Business class will be full again. But right now there are only 5 people in economy plus in 39 total EP seats. Back of the bus is decently full though. So yep, I’m definitely seeing less people on the birds I’m on. Headed to Tampa next week. We’ll see what those flights look like with spring break looming. But got to enjoy great Italian Beef sandwiches with my bourbon this week so I’ve got that going for me. 

My typical pace is about 4 segs/week, but I'm off that pace right now due to idiotic internal meetings and more direct flights, so I've only got like 20 right now. We're going into travel freeze though, even for sales, so the trip monday had  to get executive leadership approval. I'm likely grounded for the forseeable future. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Surprise surprise, we're missing the testing goals set that we set for ourselves. Ignorance is bliss, I guess

There are going to be plenty of case studies about how the US completely fucked up something that much smaller countries are handling much better.    And it’s not just this, and it’s unfortunate that Hahn was the one who originally said it - he was a higher-up at M.D. Anderson.   

[Grade of D as in David 13256]

10 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Almost no point in testing people at this juncture

 

its not like people with cold symptoms are gonna quarantine themselves anyway

Exactly why I don't wear condoms.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Grade of D as in David
Kidding obviously

[pacman 7512]

Quote

Attached, in addition to the Situation Report, is a Master Questions List (MQL) provided by the DHS Science and Technology Directorate.  This document provides technical questions and answers regarding COVID-19. The MQL is approved for public release and distribution is unlimited.

 

COVID-19 - Worldwide - Situation Report - 03-05-20 (Update 05) | NSC Level 2 – Medium – Yellow | (INC10276272)

 

Critical Infrastructure Involved: Healthcare and Public Health, Government Facilities (Education Facilities), Transportation Systems (Aviation), Information Technology

 

SUMMARY: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has been monitoring the evolving Coronavirus Disease, also known as COVID-19, situation closely, taking part in interagency and industry coordination calls, and working with critical infrastructure partners to prepare for possible disruptions to critical infrastructure that may stem from widespread illness, should the virus take hold in the U.S.

 

CISA continues to work closely with federal partners to prepare the nation for possible impacts of a COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. This whole-of-nation effort is led by Health and Human Services (HHS) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with all other agencies, including CISA, in a support role.

 

KEY POINTS:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) reports there are approximately 95,333 confirmed cases and 3,282 deaths worldwide
• WHO has rated the global risk of COVID-19 spread “very high”
• There are 148 U.S. COVID-19 cases and 10 deaths
• There are 13 states reporting cases: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin

 

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS

 

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

(Aviation)

 

Enhanced health screening procedures continue to be enforced in airports across the country.

 

HEALTHCARE AND PUBLIC HEALTH

 

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released an Emergency Use Authorization describing an accelerated policy enabling laboratories to develop and use tests in-house for patient diagnosis. Additionally, the U.S. has relaxed criteria for testing patients, it no longer requires travel history or close contact with a known case.

 

There are 148 U.S. COVID-19 in 13 states including: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin

 

Washington

 

The CDC deployed a team to support the investigation of a potential outbreak at a long-term care facility in Kirkland, WA. CDC infection control experts are assessing the risk of additional healthcare worker exposures and carefully reviewing infection control practices within the facility to protect residents and healthcare workers from further spread of COVID-19.

 

California

 

Two cities (San Diego and San Francisco) and five counties (Alameda, Orange, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma) have issued Local Health Emergencies and/or Local Emergencies. California has announced a state of emergency after the states’ first death related to COVID-19.

 

New Jersey

 

State governor's office announced the first presumptive case of COVID-19 on March 4, 2020. The man, who is in his thirties, is hospitalized in Bergen County. The man has been hospitalized since Tuesday. The presumptive positive result came from a test done by the New Jersey Department of Health. It has now been sent to the CDC for confirmation.

 

Region II

 

State and local government and industry partners are taking what they view to be the necessary precautions given the current status of COVID-19, including reviews of current stockpiles and public sanitation programs.

 

Healthcare organizations continue to address PPE supply chain challenges with their respective distributors and manufactures.  

 

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

The following Coronavirus themed cyber-related malicious activities have been observed:

• Phishing attacks used in combination with email and bogus websites to trick victims into divulging sensitive information; targeting Critical Manufacturing, Financial Services, and Transportation sectors
• Emails that leverage malicious Word attachments leading to AZORult malware (infostealer)
• The use of stolen emails from previously compromised accounts as a template for attempted infections
• Spam emails used to deliver secondary payloads of other malware strains such as the Trickbot information stealer and Trojan that also delivers ransomware
• File types confirmed to be exploited in this campaign include PDF, MP4, and DocX
• Two cybersecurity firms discovered an Emotet campaign delivered using Coronavirus theme; analysis validated that none of the identified samples were new, but were reused with some small changes 
• Two Coronavirus themed malicious Android mobile applications have been identified: Coronavirus[.]apk and Coronavirus[.]hijosdept[.]cacaica

 

ACTIVATIONS

 

• CDC has activated its Emergency Response System
• CDC has issued travel advisories for China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong
• U.S. Department of State has issued travel advisories for China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Mongolia, and Japan
• The Governors of five states have declared Public Health or States of Emergency in response to COVID-19 (CA, FL, HI, OR, and WA)
• The Washington state Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is fully activated for COVID-19, selected ESFs are active
• Colorado State EOC changed to Level 3 activation
• Michigan State EOC is at Partial Activation - Monitor
• Illinois State EOC is at partial activation
• New York State EOC has been activated to Enhanced Monitoring on a 24/7 basis
• The Interagency Crisis Action Task Force and the FEMA National Business Emergency Operations Center (NBEOC) are operating Monday - Friday from 0800-1700 ET 
• Emergency Support Function #14 – Cross Sector Business & Infrastructure is activated at the national level with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) coordinating.

 

CISA Actions:

 

• Conducted a Cross Sector Coordination Call with sector partners
• Monitoring the evolving COVID-19 situation closely; taking part in interagency and industry coordination calls; working with CI partners to prepare for possible disruptions
• Working closely with federal partners to prepare for possible impacts of COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S.
• Sent RFI to all Regions requesting COVID-19 update from their region
• Cisa.gov/coronavirus is live and provides information on CISA’s efforts to support the federal response as well as links of interest, such as the CDCs web page on coronavirus/COVID-19

Today's InfoSecurity bulletin, publicly available

[NoName 17179]

25 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If it kills too many too quickly it will fizzle out before it has the chance to be badass pandemic, not some little bitchass wannabe.

Again, with a CFR that low it's not high enough to be successful and it's impossible to keep from spreading. So you created something that both doesn't kill enough people and ends up coming to your country and killing your people too. 

So someone is shitty at their job if this is a bioweapon.

[crimsonlonghorn 2313]

22 minutes ago, lonestarsooner said:

I’m on my 33rd flight of the year tonight, this one from ORD home to IAH. So yep, I probably already have it. Thots and players and all that good shit. Was on the same flight Tuesday night. On the one Tuesday night there were 16 of us in business class and 35 in the rest of the plane. Total of 51 on a bird that holds a couple of hundred. Tonight’s flight is a bit more full. Business class will be full again. But right now there are only 5 people in economy plus in 39 total EP seats. Back of the bus is decently full though. So yep, I’m definitely seeing less people on the birds I’m on. Headed to Tampa next week. We’ll see what those flights look like with spring break looming. But got to enjoy great Italian Beef sandwiches with my bourbon this week so I’ve got that going for me. 

Sounds like a great time for poors to fly with silver status. Upgrade city!

[bolverk 30372]

42 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

https://www.propublica.org/article/i-lived-through-sars-and-reported-on-ebola-these-are-the-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab

fantastic article that defines the parms we should all be discussing and propagating

i'm slammed this morning someone please copypasta plaintext for tapaistas

Excellent article for sure. And pos rep for reminding to copy/paste plain text (wish more would do that simple task).

I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus.
For concerned civilians and journalists covering the coronavirus, the figures and projections can be overwhelming, frightening or confusing. Here’s what reporter Caroline Chen is focusing on to keep things as accurate and clear as possible.

I grew up in Hong Kong and was 13 when SARS swept through the city, infecting about 1,750 people and killing nearly 300. As a teenager, the hardest part was being stuck at home and missing my friends. I only started to pay attention to the daily death toll after my parents decided that’s what would dictate when I could go back to school. But the experience shaped me. I picked up personal hygiene habits, like pressing elevator buttons with my knuckles. And I developed a deep respect for front-line medical workers, many of whom labored around the clock until they, too, succumbed.

That was only my first experience with an outbreak.

In 2014, I was a rookie reporter on the Bloomberg News health desk helping to cover the growing Ebola crisis in West Africa when we got word that the U.S. had its first diagnosed patient. My editor looked down his row of reporters and his eyes fell on me, the one with no familial obligations. “Hey Caroline,” he said, “want to go to Dallas today?” The experience gave me a deeper look into how governments and scientists grapple with a fast-moving, deadly target. I learned about contact tracing as I tagged along with CDC disease detectives. A colleague and I delved deep into how the government’s cumbersome contracting process delayed the development of a possible treatment for Ebola. I later covered Zika, reporting on Florida’s lonely fight against the virus, as Congress gave the state little assistance.

Every time, I’ve seen the same gaps emerge in the public’s understanding of what’s really happening. On one side, I have epidemiologists and lab directors explaining to me, in excruciating detail, nuanced models and technicalities, like how PCR assays work. On the other side, I see oversimplified headlines and misleading statistics touted by government officials.

Now I’m on ProPublica’s coronavirus reporting team, speaking to dozens of sources every day, from epidemiology experts and worried medical workers to members of the public, who are not sure what to take from the headlines they’re seeing. ProPublica specializes in accountability journalism, and our goal is to find out what’s happening and let the public know of any shortfalls in emergency response.

Here’s what you need to know:

Spoiler

 

Testing Is Still Limited
On Tuesday, after days of growing clamor to make more testing available, Vice President Mike Pence announced that the administration was issuing new guidance that “will make it clear that any American can be tested” for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, and said that 2,500 kits would be sent out this week, an equivalent of 1.5 million tests.

Lifting restrictions on testing criteria is a much-needed step, but if your takeaway was that hundreds of thousands of Americans will be able to walk into doctors’ offices by Friday and immediately get tested, you’d be wrong.

It doesn’t matter if boxes upon boxes of kits are available if labs are struggling to set up the tests or are short on staff to run them. At the end of the day, what I want to know (and I imagine, what everyone wants to know) is how many people can be tested. That’s the unit that I am pressing public health officials and lab directors for when I interview them.

Here are some basics that may be useful to keep in mind: The CDC test kits can be thought of somewhat like a Blue Apron meal kit; there’s some assembly required before a lab can begin testing. It’s not like a protein bar, ready to eat straight out of the wrapper.

As of Wednesday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents public health labs across the United States, told me that each CDC test kit can run about 700 specimens. Note the “about” — you might have heard that each CDC test kit can run 1,000 specimens. That’s also true, but labs use up a certain amount of material in the process of setting up the kit and also to ensure that all the results from actual patient samples are accurate. So that’s where the “about 700” number is coming from.

None of those numbers, so far, are in units of what I care about — patients. We’re still talking about samples and specimens. APHL says the labs are running two specimens per patient, to double-check the result. So that means you actually can only test 350 people per kit.

Reporters, if an official gives you a number that’s in samples, I urge you to follow up.

Instead of asking: How many test kits do you have?

Ask this: How many samples are you running per patient?

So that’s the kits. Let’s turn to staffing.

APHL told me on Wednesday that each public health lab can run about 100 samples per day. One hundred public labs received test kits from the CDC. When they’re all up and running, they’ll have a cumulative capacity of 10,000 samples a day. Remember, since we care about patients and not samples, divide by two. That’s 5,000 patients a day. (As of Thursday morning, 67 labs were taking patient samples, so that would come out to 3,350 patients a day.)

Many experts say we need far more testing capacity. A former FDA commissioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, told me that he’d like everyone with an influenza-like illness who tests negative for the flu to be able to get tested for COVID-19, which, given that we’re still in the midst of flu season, means a massive ramp-up would be required. In order to do that, the U.S. urgently needs academic medical centers to also come on board. Under pressure to expand capacity, the FDA loosened restrictions on Saturday to allow academic hospital labs to start testing. Some have. You can read more about that here. Testing giants Quest and LabCorp are also aiming to be online next week, which will help tremendously.

I urge reporters to keep labor capacity in mind when talking to their local labs.

Instead of asking: How many samples can you run?

Ask this: How many samples is your lab testing per day right now? How about at maximum capacity? How many hours does it take to get a result?

One last thing that’s good to know: There are commercial manufacturers at work to create off-the-shelf versions of these tests — the microwavable meal equivalent, if you will. But those companies have not given a precise timeline. Last week, Cepheid, a manufacturer based in California, told ProPublica it’s targeting the second quarter of this year for the release of its test.

The Death Rate Is Only an Estimate

The mortality rate is an awfully squishy number that’s being reported as if it’s a stone-cold fact. On Tuesday, a number of headlines trumpeted that the World Health Organization was saying the death rate was 3.4%. Some hand-wringing ensued over how this number was higher than the previous estimate of 2%.

Here’s what WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.” Let’s zoom in on the word “reported.” The WHO puts out a daily situation report that you can find here. It defines confirmed as “a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection.” As of Tuesday, the total number of deaths reported globally (3,112) as a fraction of the total number of confirmed cases reported globally (90,869) was 3.4%.

Here’s the problem, though. That denominator is laboratory-confirmed cases. As we know, in the U.S., it’s pretty hard to get tested right now. In fact, based on this definition, as of Wednesday night, the U.S. mortality rate based on CDC numbers — 9 reported deaths and 80 laboratory-confirmed cases — was 11%. You know that’s bogus. You know that’s because there’s not enough data, the denominator is pitifully small and we need to be testing a whole lot more people.

Over the last few weeks, many more countries have realized that the coronavirus has hit their shores. Some, like South Korea, are doing tons of testing and generating lots of data. Others, like the U.S., aren’t, as ProPublica has reported. The rate will also depend, country by country, on demographics (this virus is more deadly to the elderly) and resources (like ventilators). It’s not surprising that the global mortality rate based on confirmed cases might fluctuate for a while.

When most people talk about fatality rates, they’re thinking: If I get this, will I die? The only way to actually answer that question is to know how many people have been infected, and for now, that’s nearly impossible. As Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health points out, deaths are the most obvious and easy thing to catch, whereas infected people who stay at home and those with no symptoms are incredibly hard to account for. That tends to skew the fatality rate higher, especially earlier on in an epidemic.

What we do know for now is that it’s more deadly than the seasonal flu, which generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, and less deadly than a disease like SARS, which killed about 10% of those infected during the outbreak in 2002-3.

When I write about the mortality rate, I try to use caveats like “estimated” or “scientists understand it to be around” so readers understand it’s not fixed in stone.

Instead of saying: The mortality rate is X%.

Say this: Scientists estimate the mortality rate is X%, based on the information they have.

Be Careful with Projections

Another slippery number out there is what’s known as the basic reproduction number, R₀ (pronounced R-naught). It’s a measure of contagion, the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person. For similar reasons as above, this number is currently a moving target, as more data is gathered from around the world. So far, estimates have largely been in the range of 2 to 3.

What this means for reporters is that if someone tries to say something like, there’s going to be X number of cases by a certain date, that can’t be a hard and fast number. I’d want to know what assumptions were used to calculate that forecast. What was the R₀ presumed? How about the serial interval, the duration between the onset of symptoms between one case and its secondary cases? Tweaking either of those numbers by just a bit can result in very different forecasts, which you can see by playing around with this interactive tool by the University of Toronto. Generally, I shy away from putting a projection in a headline, where any hope of nuance might be lost, but if I have to, a range is safer than a single number that readers might interpret as somehow immutable.

Furthermore, as of early March, there are many fundamental questions about the novel coronavirus that scientists still don’t fully understand. For example, while it’s clear that the primary method of transmission is via droplets, drops of fluid from the mouth or nose emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes, it’s not clear if it can transmit as an aerosol, meaning it is airborne and floats around (this is considered to be unlikely). It’s also not conclusive if the virus can be spread by infected people before they present any symptoms.

Instead of asking: How many cases will there be at X point in time?

Ask this: What assumptions were used to calculate your prediction? What’s the upper and lower range of your projection?

Information Is Changing Quickly and May Soon Be Out of Date
One last thing I’d like to add: Even more so than usual, things are moving quickly. I’ve been on interviews where the information I was given was outdated — as in just plain wrong — by the time I filed my draft 12 hours later. This is, of course, terrifying as a reporter. So I’m trying my best to put information like “as of Wednesday morning” alongside facts and figures in my stories, and I’m encouraging my sources to update me as often as they can.

OK, but How Do I Protect Myself?

Over the last two days, I’ve gotten numerous DMs over Twitter from concerned members of the public, asking me what they should do to be safe. Honestly, this breaks my heart and speaks to a failure of local health officials to educate them. I’m having the same conversations over and over again, so I thought I’d share some of my thoughts here. I’m not a medical professional, so this is not medical advice.

Start by knowing yourself. Are you elderly or immunocompromised? Young and healthy? Your risk varies depending on your personal profile. If you’re concerned about your health, I encourage you to talk through your fears with your doctor. I’m 29; I know there’s little chance that this virus would kill me given the information I’ve seen. (In data published last month by the Chinese CDC, out of more than 72,000 diagnosed cases, 8.1% were 20-somethings, and the fatality rate in that age bracket was 0.2%.) That said, given my personal medical history and tendency to get bronchitis, I would really prefer not to get infected.

So how does that translate into action? Here have been my personal choices so far. I’m still flying; I just got off a plane to attend a reporting conference in New Orleans. (I would not attend a conference in the Seattle area, however, given how signs are pointing to widespread community transmission.) I don’t see how being on a plane increases my personal risk any more than being on the New York City subway. That said, I am not shaking any hands at this conference, and I’m ramping up my hygiene game: washing my hands more frequently and encouraging my colleagues to do so as well.

I’m aware of the possibility that I may need to work from home in the near future, if I or my husband get sick, or if there’s an explosion of cases in New York City and social distancing measures are encouraged. So we are slowly but methodically picking up a little bit of extra food with every grocery run (for our two cats as well!), just so that we’d have enough at home if we need to be indoors for a few weeks. I’m not panicked, nor should you be. I’d encourage you to check on your neighbors — especially the older ones, or those with young children, and see if you can pick up some additional groceries for them.

Even if we have to stand a little farther apart from one another, the best way to get through this is with a bit of extra compassion to bridge the gap.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90674]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Talking with one of my colleagues with a lot of family back in China and it's pretty amazing what I am hearing.  The extent of the lock down, broadly across the country in major metros as well as rural areas, would not be tolerated in the US.

Like I and others said earlier - I don’t even know if we could lock down a city that’s physically the size of Houston.   There’s 2,500 in New York being asked to self-quarantine.  9,700 in California alone, and the list is growing.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/self-quarantine-explainer-procedures/index.html

And some don’t have much of an incentive to stay away from  others

Quote

While residents across the states have so far been compliant about going into self-quarantine voluntarily, health officials can issue orders making both quarantines and isolations mandatory. Violating those orders could result in legal repercussions. 

Last week, a New Hampshire medical center employee who was told to self-isolate attended a private event, prompting the state's Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) to issue an official order for isolation, according to a department news release. 

Violating an official order issued by the DHHS commissioner can result in a misdemeanor, according to New Hampshire law.

If you’re infected, it’s another matter

Quote

As for New Yorkers who tested positive with the virus, isolating themselves is mandatory. 

"That is policed," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told CNN affiliate WCBS. "That is monitored and policed. We check on those people and make sure they are doing it."

But the people being asked to self-quarantine, plenty might not be able to for financial or other reasons.  

[lonestarsooner 123]

16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is the 66th day of the year. You’re on flight #33? Either you’re playing into stereotype and can’t count, or you have been doing some crazy fucking hustling. Of course on the former and respect on the latter. Damn. 

Lol, no stereotyping and despite being a Sooner I can count. Don’t even have to take my shoes off to get past 10. 🤣 Lifetime Diamond with Hilton and 1k with United. This is going to screw up a lot of people’s status for next year though. We haven’t talked about locking down travel yet. Wouldn’t surprise me to see it coming though. I’ve already qualified for United Gold next year but would definitely drop from 1k if travel gets curtailed.