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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

Posted
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2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’m gonna need some of y’all to fact check this interesting graphic. I don’t remember much of SARS. 
 

 

Two problems to keep in mind:  1.  The SARS numbers in China will never be truly known.  China went all out on trying to cover it up, and they did a lot of shady stuff, and a lot of people/groups/whatever do not trust their numbers on it to this day.  They threw a tremendous amount of resources at something that, on paper, doesn't look too bad (as far as the number of deaths).

2. While the Chinese government is much better (and more proactive) this time around, we don't know how many people they are testing everyday, and whether they are constrained on the numbers they can actually test everyday.  There could be 25,000 people infected with it that they suspect, but they are only testing or processing a thousand or 1,500 or 2,000 a day or whatever.

So far, the number of infected seems to be following a logistic curve (but again, we don't know how many they are testing), while the mortality rate is dropping, which matches what the The Experts said (deaths could be tested and tracked easily, while the infected and recovered numbers would be higher than what's showing up in testing).

We are up to 80 or so infected outside of China, but only a handful had not traveled from China - if it was Really, Really Bad, we should have seen a lot more infected outside of China.

Oh, and the average day for symptoms to present themselves is now around 3-7 days, so while 14 days is the limit, we should have been seeing a lot more infected outside of China.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
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Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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interesting video here. Fascinating that the Chinese lady that infected the German and left back home didn’t know she was sick when they had contact. That would seem to be a big deal as far as transmissibility goes. We’ll see if the numbers continue. 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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11 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Benadryl, Zantac, and Nexium all together is what I've read could help once you see "flu like symptoms". I guess it's your own body freaking out that fucks ya? 

Any shaggy bevo Dr. can confirm this makes sense?

This is all nonsense. 

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630

Posted
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10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

interesting video here. Fascinating that the Chinese lady that infected the German and left back home didn’t know she was sick when they had contact. That would seem to be a big deal as far as transmissibility goes. We’ll see if the numbers continue. 

Hopefully she is lying to save face.  It probably wouldnt look at future office parties if she knowingly spread it to a colleague.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

Posted
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17 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

interesting video here. Fascinating that the Chinese lady that infected the German and left back home didn’t know she was sick when they had contact. That would seem to be a big deal as far as transmissibility goes. We’ll see if the numbers continue. 

 

5 minutes ago, Xian said:

Hopefully she is lying to save face.  It probably wouldnt look at future office parties if she knowingly spread it to a colleague.  

They could have been banging on the side, which is my first guess.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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1 minute ago, Thetexashammer said:

I think we can all agree though,  American Coronavirus would kick Chinese Coronavirus's ass every time. 

We may find out.  Everybody is tracking this plane, carrying American evacuees from Wuhan.

https://www.flightradar24.com/CKS371/23ae6d56

Speaking of flights, supposedly the US is considering shutting down all. US-China flights.    I figured it would take longer.  

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GRHorn

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47 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hubei-cases/china-virus-toll-passes-130-as-u-s-weighs-flight-ban-idUSKBN1ZR2VG?il=0

Slow to react similar to the ground of the 737 MAX8. Maybe because of recent trade agreement?

I think you’re seeing a slow reaction because they don’t want to put a damper on global commerce/travel if they don’t have to. I think at this point it’s probably a good idea though. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13516

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46 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Update 
 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 

Infected: 5,578

Deaths: 131

 

I like this chart https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

It is easier to tell that the numbers are off. Hubei has almost all the deaths yet they are only claiming 3554 cases. That is wrong. You would expect many more cases in Hubei based on the mortality rate everywhere else. Maybe up to 45,000 infected in Hubei if there are only 7 deaths out of the 2420 cases outside of Hubei. But considering that there are a decent number of people in critical condition in other places, the mortality rate may increase some. Based on the current data, though, I just don't see the mortality rate going above 1%.  At a 1% mortality rate, the number of cases in Hubei would be about 12,500. So figure the true number of cases in Hubei is somewhere in the middle at around 28,000 cases to date.

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atomheartbevo

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Just now, Bevo said:

I like this chart https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

It is easier to tell that the numbers are off. Hubei has almost all the deaths yet they are only claiming 3554 cases. That is wrong. You would expect many more cases in Hubei based on the mortality rate everywhere else. Maybe up to 45,000 infected in Hubei if there are only 7 deaths out of the 2420 cases outside of Hubei.

Huge discrepancies between Hubei and the rest of mainland China in terms of mortality, serious, and critical cases.  I'm guessing it comes down to where and who they are testing.

Cases, Mortality

  • Hubei Province: 3,554 cases, 125 deaths = 3.5% mortality
  • Rest of Mainland China: 2,420 cases, 7 deaths = 0.29% mortality
  • Whole of Mainland China: 5,974 cases, 132 deaths = 2.2% mortality
  • Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan:  23 cases, no deaths
  • Rest of the World: 65 cases, no deaths

Critical and Serious Cases

  • Hubei Province: 3,554 cases,  671 serious (19%), 228 critical (6%)
  • Rest of Mainland China: 2,420 cases, 226 serious (9%), 21 critical (0.87%)
  • Whole of Mainland China: 5,974 cases, 897 serious (15%), 249 critical (4%)
  • Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan:  23 cases, 
  • Rest of the World: 65 cases, 1 serious

Or is there some kind of medical explanation - those exposed in Wuhan originally got a more deadly strain of it, and somehow everybody else got a milder strain?

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Bevo

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or is there some kind of medical explanation - those exposed in Wuhan originally got a more deadly strain of it, and somehow everybody else got a milder strain?

There are explanations, but Occam's razor says the problem is the under reporting of cases in Wuhan.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25486

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14 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

So, the US Govt charter flight  from Wuhan to ONT has been diverted, to the former March AFB, now March AFRB, east of Riverside CA.  

March is a big mofo, and there ain't shit out there. ONT is a fairly busy airport in SoCal.  

yeah, straight into a damn FEMA camp.... Run by the AF and controlled by the Rand Corporation, guarded by Reverse Vampires. 

Kidding, just never understood why they were taking them into a major international area. 

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Brisketexan

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yeah, straight into a damn FEMA camp.... Run by the AF and controlled by the Rand Corporation, guarded by Reverse Vampires. 
Kidding, just never understood why they were taking them into a major international area. 

You forgot to mention Blue Bell ice cream trucks for all the bodies.
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High Plains Drifter

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4 hours ago, Deej said:

Good to know. I was in bed for a day, alternating between being freezing and burning up. Probably didn't help having the flu shot at the same time..

 

I got a little sicky after the first, but not enough to stay home or anything. Didn't feel anything after the second. Pharmacy guy told me come back a few weeks (IIRC) later when he found out I had recently had the flu shot. Probably for this reason.

Worse than feeling a little sicky for a day was the soreness in my arm. I don't know if that was from the vaccine or the needle or the butcher who gave me the shot. Had to switch hit for a few days.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25486

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


You forgot to mention Blue Bell ice cream trucks for all the bodies.

would explain the problems they had with disease. 

 

But I do wonder if during the inflight med test they saw some changes and said nope, isolate these folks. Shit, Aussies are going to use their version of an ICE Camp for people coming out of Wuhan. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

yeah, straight into a damn FEMA camp.... Run by the AF and controlled by the Rand Corporation, guarded by Reverse Vampires. 

Kidding, just never understood why they were taking them into a major international area. 

"Get them airborne, it's a long flight, we'll figure out where to take them later on!"

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elfenix

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45 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

So, the US Govt charter flight  from Wuhan to ONT has been diverted, to the former March AFB, now March AFRB, east of Riverside CA.  

March is a big mofo, and there ain't shit out there. ONT is a fairly busy airport in SoCal.  

there an empty walmart out there?  maybe with some tunnels under it?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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APD had a high-speed chase through my neighborhood and have the helicopter doing circles looking for the guy on foot.

Would love to know how they would be able to quarantine a city the size of Austin, let alone someplace like Houston, when they have to put a bunch of resources into finding one guy in our neighborhood.  

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bluto

bluto 4880

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I saw last night that a Miami, Ohio came was postponed because of coronavirus fears.  The was also a festival in Richmond, Va that was canceled too. It's going to be interesting to see how common this becomes over the next several months.   


Can we shut down the Texas basketball season and call it precautionary reasons??
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Deej

Deej 76524

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1 hour ago, Colonel Sanders said:

I saw last night that a Miami, Ohio came was postponed because of coronavirus fears.  The was also a festival in Richmond, Va that was canceled too. It's going to be interesting to see how common this becomes over the next several months.   

Can't wait for all the SXSW visitors.

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