Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[InkaUtexas 26172]

21 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Can you post that curve visualization again? 

and add the aggy roller coaster just cuz 

[InkaUtexas 26172]

Department of State issued level 4. Lots of reason, one main one is we are closing down our locations across the country and don't want to deal with more citizens than are already there. 

 

Big thing I saw today from the political realm are the Pilot Unions saying pilots should not fly to China. Any flyboys on here want to offer their take? 

Edited January 31, 2020 by InkaUtexas

[atomheartbevo 89824]

31 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Can you post that curve visualization again? 

Somewhere down the page there is one, although not very big . 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Looking at deaths and how they are increasing, wonder if tomorrow’s totals will be around 264-ish. 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

Few days old, and somebody else’s translation 

China CDC chief expert Wu Zunyou breaks down death demographics

https://news.sina.com.tw/article/20200131/34103356.html

Of the 7,000+ cases:

• Basically no one under 39 has died
• case mortality rate for 40-59 year olds is 0.2%
• case mortality rate for 80+ year olds is 18%

Translator mentions that they did not mention 60-80 year-olds, which could be bad.   Also they feel like it’s propaganda.  

[Pato del Muerto 52616]

At what point will the mortality rate actually be significant?  We don’t seem to have a clue how many cases there really are or an accurate death count, at least not a trustworthy one. Plus sample sizes of 99 like in the tweet above. 
 

basically we don’t trust the numerator or the denominator, and both are so small that small changes have large effects. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[atomheartbevo 89824]

That’s a good question (two comments up). The last 6 days, and I maybe wrong as it’s late, aren’t seeing huge leaps.  

• Jan 25 - 56 deaths
• Jan 26 - 82 deaths, +26, 46% increase
• Jan 27 - 106 deaths +24, 29%
• Jan 28 - 133 deaths + 27, 25%
• Jan 29 - 170 deaths + 37, 28%
• Jan 30 - 214 deaths + 44, 26%

at this rate, tomorrow should see around 270 deaths.

Keeps feeling like we should see larger increases in deaths, but those are kind of matching the infected growth (around the 27th or 28th there was a big jump in infected, probably due to backlog issues).  Cue the conspiracy theories, but if people are right, and you only get tested if you are admitted into a hospital, then it’s going to be a nice steady chart, while many cases go untested.  

Edited January 31, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[RayDog 682]

There is a confirmed case in the Philippines, a Chinese woman. It's been nice knowing you assholes.

Seriously, there are lots of Chinese tourists here and there are discussions about banning them. A cruise ship was turned away from Subic. The Chinese have threatened retaliatory action if they are banned.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

Just now, RayDog said:

There is a confirmed case in the Philippines, a Chinese woman. It's been nice knowing you assholes.

Seriously, there are lots of Chinese tourists here and there are discussions about banning them. A cruise ship was turned away from Subic. The Chinese have threatened retaliatory action if they are banned.

I saw that the a president was banning Chinese airlines and ships.  What are they going to do, cough on the Philippines?

[Bevo 13601]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Few days old, and somebody else’s translation 

China CDC chief expert Wu Zunyou breaks down death demographics

https://news.sina.com.tw/article/20200131/34103356.html

Of the 7,000+ cases:

• Basically no one under 39 has died
• case mortality rate for 40-59 year olds is 0.2%
• case mortality rate for 80+ year olds is 18%

Translator mentions that they did not mention 60-80 year-olds, which could be bad.   Also they feel like it’s propaganda.  

Pretty good update https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

I think a 36 yr old with no preexisting health issues is the youngest victim.

[GRHorn 105]

On 1/28/2020 at 6:52 PM, Xian said:

Hopefully she is lying to save face.  It probably wouldnt look at future office parties if she knowingly spread it to a colleague.  

Here’s the follow up story on it. 

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/first-documented-case-of-coronavirus-spread-by-person-showing-no-symptoms/

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Pretty good update https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

I think a 36 yr old with no preexisting health issues is the youngest victim.

So armybrat is at extremely high risk, while his grandkids and great-grandkids are moderately at risk   

We have an advantage.  We have soccer moms who will whisk their kids away and start sanitizing like crazy the moment somebody coughs.  

[HornsOverIthaca 2335]

Just make sure you don’t buy any blankets

 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

Lots happening today. 

• Russia has first two confirmed cases
• UK has first two confirmed cases
• Indonesia doesn’t have the necessary test components.
• Kid infected in Germany (child of previously known infected Bavarian).  Whole family suspected of being sick.  May have went to school.  
• It was successfully cultured (took around a year for SARS) https://www.duke-nus.edu.sg/about/media/media-releases/media-releases/wuhan-coronavirus
• Another company working on a treatment https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nanoviricides-confirms-working-treatment-novel-232000756.html
• Translated article: “5pm today, 20 patients with coronavirus pneumonia were discharged from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Among them, the maximum age was 64 and the minimum age was 15. This is the largest number of simultaneous discharges since the outbreak. Up to now, 72 cases of confirmed patients have been discharged.”  Note:  They still have to pass multiple tests over two weeks, but this is 20 from one hospital, and these people were serious enough to have been admitted to the hospital in the first place. 
• Cool map: https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map

Edited January 31, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Bevo 13601]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Indonesia doesn’t have the necessary test components.

Flying into Jakarta and/or Kuala Lumpur this June. Then, Borneo and Bali - Should be fun

[atomheartbevo 89824]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Flying into Jakarta and/or Kuala Lumpur this June. Then, Borneo and Bali - Should be fun

They have kits,  but not reagents and some other component.  

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/that-s-a-problem-indonesia-s-coronavirus-vulnerability-revealed-20200130-p53wc9.html

supposed to get everything needed in a few day’s, but that means a big backlog.  

[Player 4576]

33 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Flying into Jakarta and/or Kuala Lumpur this June. Then, Borneo and Bali - Should be fun

Stay away, you never know what you'll catch. 

Just the other day I heard a soldier falling off some Indonesian junk that's going round. 

[Bevo 13601]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have kits,  but not reagents and some other component.  

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/that-s-a-problem-indonesia-s-coronavirus-vulnerability-revealed-20200130-p53wc9.html

supposed to get everything needed in a few day’s, but that means a big backlog.  

BTW, that drug in development is nothing more than a PR piece. The good news is that China is a good place to test developmental drugs. So whatever is out there can get tested (hopefully before the virus hits the US).

[Bevo 13601]

3 minutes ago, Player said:

Just the other day I heard a soldier falling off some Indonesian junk that's going round. 

Well, my parents are alright. They just seem a little weird.

[mdmost 43056]

Delta and American have announced they are cancelling all flights to China. 

[Laxtonto 12121]

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/nowcasting-and-forecasting

 

Not sure how many of you guys have academic access, but interesting piece on the "true forecasted" number infected in Wuhan region

[Laxtonto 12121]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Delta and American have announced they are cancelling all flights to China. 

The global disruption of trade and the impending financial collapse of the Chinese banking system is now becoming a major concern....

 

This is unfolding into a global economic disaster scenario that will get worse over the next 20+ days

 

Hold onto your butts

[purplepride95 6890]

[Newdoc 3453]

16 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The global disruption of trade and the impending financial collapse of the Chinese banking system is now becoming a major concern....

 

This is unfolding into a global economic disaster scenario that will get worse over the next 20+ days

 

Hold onto your butts

Moving my kids 529’s to cash. One in college, one starts next year. I don’t have time for them to recover.

[immortal13 4059]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Flying into Jakarta and/or Kuala Lumpur this June. Then, Borneo and Bali - Should be fun

Nice knowing you 

[InkaUtexas 26172]

3 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

Nice knowing you 

So BEVO what number will this be? 

[GreenspointTexas 9683]

29 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Delta and American have announced they are cancelling all flights to China. 

Should have happened over 2 weeks ago

[Doc Reeves 6434]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Flying into Jakarta and/or Kuala Lumpur this June. Then, Borneo and Bali - Should be fun

Don’t worry everyone will be dead there already

[Doc Reeves 6434]

14 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Moving my kids 529’s to cash. One in college, one starts next year. I don’t have time for them to recover.

no flu on your new boat in the med...

 

[Somnio 751]

WTF is going on here?

 

[Aqua Buddha 14624]

 

[Laxtonto 12121]

2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

WTF is going on here?

 

During the black plague they would lock people in their homes if they were found to have symptoms...

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

That worked out well.  They managed to save 2/3 of the population

[Somnio 751]

If you watch the entire video you'll see that's exactly what they're doing.  They're boarding up doors with people inside.  Fucking nuts.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

1st.... anti vaxers

2nd.... promiscuous millennials 

[InkaUtexas 26172]

4 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If you watch the entire video you'll see that's exactly what they're doing.  They're boarding up doors with people inside.  Fucking nuts.

good news is they left enough room for small containers of fried rice 

[Aqua Buddha 14624]

4 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

1st.... anti vaxers

2nd.... promiscuous millennials 

#2 will survive.  They're young and health.  It's the promiscuous Boomers that need to be worried.  That is, if Hep C doesn't get the first.

[Somnio 751]

I'm sorry, maybe a week from now I look back and think, "What a dumbass!" but I'm calling it now.  This is way worse than is being let on.  Waaay too much weird, unprecedented shit going on for this just to be SARS 2.0 or whatever.  I pray I'm wrong but I believe this is going to get really, really ugly.

[MoJames 8256]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

#2 will survive.  They're young and health.  It's the promiscuous Boomers that need to be worried.  That is, if Hep C doesn't get the first.

Well seeing that Hep C is pretty much curable now, I'd say promiscuous boomers need only wear a mask during sex.

[MoJames 8256]

2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I'm sorry, maybe a week from now I look back and think, "What a dumbass!" but I'm calling it now.  This is way worse than is being let on.  Waaay too much weird, unprecedented shit going on for this just to be SARS 2.0 or whatever.  I pray I'm wrong but I believe this is going to get really, really ugly.

[Aqua Buddha 14624]

3 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Well seeing that Hep C is pretty much curable now, I'd say promiscuous boomers need only wear a mask during sex.

No oral?  I has teh sads.

[BrickHorn 18290]

1 minute ago, Doc Reeves said:

1st.... anti vaxers

2nd.... promiscuous millennials 

It’s actually disproportionately killing off men in their 60s and 70s.  If it hits the US, it could affect the election in November.  

[Aqua Buddha 14624]

5 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I'm sorry, maybe a week from now I look back and think, "What a dumbass!" but I'm calling it now.  This is way worse than is being let on.  Waaay too much weird, unprecedented shit going on for this just to be SARS 2.0 or whatever.  I pray I'm wrong but I believe this is going to get really, really ugly.

Let me jump in here and mention that the flu killed 80K in the US in 2018 to put it in perspective.

[Bevo 13601]

32 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So BEVO what number will this be? 

16

[Aqua Buddha 14624]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s actually disproportionately killing off men in their 60s and 70s.  If it hits the US, it could affect the election in November.  

Well played, Hillary.  Well played.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

16 minutes ago, Somnio said:

WTF is going on here?

 

 

11 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If you watch the entire video you'll see that's exactly what they're doing.  They're boarding up doors with people inside.  Fucking nuts.

I didn’t realize Dick and Carole Gottleib were Chinese.  

[BrazilHorn 6635]

5 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I'm sorry, maybe a week from now I look back and think, "What a dumbass!" but I'm calling it now.  This is way worse than is being let on.  Waaay too much weird, unprecedented shit going on for this just to be SARS 2.0 or whatever.  I pray I'm wrong but I believe this is going to get really, really ugly.

Not sure if it’ll get really, really ugly but I will say I absolutely wouldn’t trust shit the Chinese are saying in terms of numbers/fatalities etc

[Helobious 9467]

1 minute ago, Somnio said:

I'm sorry, maybe a week from now I look back and think, "What a dumbass!" but I'm calling it now.  This is way worse than is being let on.  Waaay too much weird, unprecedented shit going on for this just to be SARS 2.0 or whatever.  I pray I'm wrong but I believe this is going to get really, really ugly.

You can’t trust the Chinese govt, but if the illness itself was really a death sentence then we would have seen more deaths outside China by now. I’m guessing it’s just more widespread than they’ve let on. 
 

That, or the Chinese know that it turns the infected into flesh-eating zombies months after exposure. It is rumored that this all started with biological weapons testing gone wrong. Who knows. 

[Somnio 751]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Let me jump in here and mention that the flu killed 80K in the US in 2018 to put it in perspective.

Why are borders being closed, air traffic shut down, people being boarded up in their homes?

Serious question, not being a smart ass?  If it really ain't that big of a deal, and the flu is worse (apparently), why such drastic measures?

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Lots happening today. 

• Kid infected in Germany (child of previously known infected Bavarian).  Whole family suspected of being sick.  
• Cool map: https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map

I'm not uber paranoid about this potential epidemic, but I could have lived without what happened this past weekend with my neighbors.  We're outside riding bikes with our 4 YO in driveway, neighbors pulls into his driveway.  Gets out and we always stop and chat with them and they with us.  So he's talking to my oldest and then looking at our little 10 month old.  Wife says, "Yeah, Josh just got back into town."  So I ask from where since he travels for work overseas and of course as he's within inches of my children, "Wuhan."  GOD DAMMIT!  He's one the smartest guys I know, but fucking Wuhan---seriously Josh?   She's not even a year old.  

That said, "Known Infected Bavarian" is the new name for my post-progressive rock  band.  

 

 

 

 

[Bill Lumbergh 7187]

I'm not uber paranoid about this potential epidemic, but I could have lived without what happened this past weekend with my neighbors.  We're outside riding bikes with our 4 YO in driveway, neighbors pulls into his driveway.  Gets out and we always stop and chat with them and they with us.  So he's talking to my oldest and then looking at our little 10 month old.  Wife says, "Yeah, Josh just got back into town."  So I ask from where since he travels for work overseas and of course as he's within inches of my children, "Wuhan."  GOD DAMMIT!  He's one the smartest guys I know, but fucking Wuhan---seriously Josh?   She's not even a year old.  
That said, "Known Infected Bavarian" is the new name for my post-progressive rock  band.  
 
 
 
 

I grabbed beers with a buddy this week who was just getting over being sick, but still coughing a lot.

I joked about how I hoped he hadn't been to China recently, and (as he continued coughing) he said "no, but my brother just got back from China in December right before I saw him for Christmas."

It really bugged me the rest of the time we were there until I finally realized that his brother would be in obviously bad shape at this point if he had it.

I've got two little kids at home, and wouldn't have been able to contain my feelings if what happened to you happened with them.

If you've been anywhere around the known infected zones you should be a good person and just quarantine yourself until you're beyond the symptom window. It's just common sense at this point.