Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[gmr548 16580]

8 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

So what comes after we slow the curve? We keep slowing the curve, for months and months? Years? We go back to normal and this fucks us again?

The main benefit from slowing the curve is management of capacity in the healthcare system. It's not that we can't care for patients of the virus, but we can't do it when there are thousands of new cases a day (at a 20 percent hospitalization rate and 5 percent ICU rate). We definitely cannot handle that in addition to normal burden on the health system.

The cat is out of the bag, the virus is going to spread here. It can overwhelm hospitals and cause thousands of unnecessary deaths, or we can all do our part to slow the spread, ease therefore easing pressure on the healthcare system and preventing unnecessary loss of life and suffering. And, of course, if the rate of infection slows, fewer people get infected before effective antivirals or vaccine can be developed.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

9 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

It's not worthless.  It's value has been inflated away but it's not worthless.

The value of debt on your mortgage would be inflating away at the same rate?

[tbone_ 14123]

Driving around SA tonight, there was a very noticeable decrease in the amount of cars in restaurant parking lots. Especially for a Thursday night.

WTH were you out?

[Underdog 28631]

40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

[Hate 20108]

Question for the Dr’s...is it anticipated that once there is a vaccination that it becomes a yearly type of shot like the flu or will the vaccination only pertain to this particular strain?

[Upgrayedd 5812]

41 minutes ago, drt said:

I’m in Vegas for a trade show that normally attracts 150k people from all over the globe. They just announced it is closing a day early so I’m getting an earlier flight home. I assume at this point I’ve been exposed as I’ve been here since Monday.

My mom has been staying at the house to help out with the kids.  I just had to tell her to be on her way back to her house before I get back from the airport. This shit sucks. 

My dad bailed on ConExpo and my brother offered me the spot (don’t even work with them anymore).  Hard pass.

[Helobious 9453]

13 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

WTH were you out?

Bumble date, ate out at a restaurant. If I’m gonna catch it I’d rather catch it eating good food with a babe right in front of me. I’ll die the way I lived.

 

[F250 28775]

17 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

The value of debt on your mortgage would be inflating away at the same rate?

Is that why strippers haven't changed their prices in 30 years?

[Trey3216 15346]

2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Bumble date, ate out at a restaurant. If I’m gonna catch it I’d rather catch it eating good food with a babe right in front of me. I’ll die the way I lived.

 

Bold strategy    How’d she taste 

[freyguy 4271]

My throat's been a bit burning today, but can't tell if it's being aggravate by all the tree pollen.  Seems like I can feel my heart beating heavier than normal as well.

It's been fun, really.  I wish you all well.  And no, you cannot have my watch when I am dead.  For I have none.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

Is that why strippers haven't changed their prices in 30 years?

While this is generally true, at some point they doubled their prices on Bourbon Street. 

[dcar00 14207]

6 minutes ago, F250 said:

Is that why strippers haven't changed their prices in 30 years?

sucked when it went from 10 to 20.  

[atomheartbevo 89665]

So https://ncov2019.live which is sourced well, has us at 1,885 cases, around 550 new cases in a day.   At this rate, we will probably hit close to 1,000 new cases Sunday.   Maybe Monday.   Depends on testing.   

Obviously there are many more (add a zero), but this is going to get a lot of attention.   

Edited March 13, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

sucked when it went from 10 to 20.  

#raydogproblems

[Hook1997 5354]

A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Hook1997

[naija 2854]

cancellation of elective medical/surgical procedures being discussed

[Rip76 4928]

14 minutes ago, freyguy said:

My throat's been a bit burning today, but can't tell if it's being aggravate by all the tree pollen.  Seems like I can feel my heart beating heavier than normal as well.

It's been fun, really.  I wish you all well.  And no, you cannot have my watch when I am dead.  For I have none.

Same here.  My truck looks like a yellow cab.

[TwiceHorn 31470]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, as noted above, Milan is surprisingly population-dense.  It would be in the top 20 in the US. 11 of which are greater NYC.

Also, Tehran is 31k/sq mi.

Definitely a factor.  Not surprising, but worth considering.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

i took the day off from this thread to get work done.

i'm sure there is important news and discussion upthread that i am not tuned up on.

i just want to say at midnight on 12 march 2020, that i feel good that Day Zero finally happened yesterday, 3/11.

as someone who has been in this thread from very early on, i am surprised that we actually got here now, before we had italy on the tube.

it's going to be a bitch and a metric fuckton of people are going to die who shouldn't have to this year.

but at least we finally go to Day Zero.

and that is a blessing.

Good Luck to All.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Did you nut in her or pull out

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Crossposting from the market is crashing thread:

I'll post this elsewhere but it definitely belongs here:  

Jeff Walker who was former Vice Chair at JPMorgan Chase and head of their Private equity franchise 

 

Subject: From Jeff Walker from recent conference on Covid-19
 

experts

Arranged a discussion yesterday on COVID-19 with USCF’s top researchers in infectious disease.  Here are the notes.  I bolded some of the more notable comments from the researchers.   

UC San Francisco is either the #1 or #2 hospital in California depending on which survey you read.  It is the 4th largest medical research center in the US, based on research grants.  

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19

March 10, 2020

Panelists
Joe DeRisi:  UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher.  Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford).  Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford:  COVID task force director.  Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato:   Rapid Response Director.  Immunologist.  
Patrick Ayescue:   Leading outbreak response and surveillance.  Epidemiologist.  
Chaz Langelier:   UCSF Infectious Disease doc
What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists.  I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

Top takeaways
At this point, we are past containment.  Containment is basically futile.  Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.  
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.  In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers.  And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus?  No one knows.
We are moving from containment to care.  
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago.  We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.  After that level you can start to get herd immunity.  Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die.  The panelists did not disagree with our estimate.  This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year.  Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected.  With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
The death rate varies hugely by age.  Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.  [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]  
Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
I can only tell you two things definitively.  Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.  And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least.  Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
What should we do now?  What are you doing for your family?
Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic.  We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms.  We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
How long does the virus last?
On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents:  bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
We have cancelled business travel.  
Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
Stockpile your critical prescription medications.  Many pharma supply chains run through China.  Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
Pneumonia shot might be helpful.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
Get a flu shot next fall.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”.  CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes.  Then are not letting them out of the house.  The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
Three routes of infection
Hand to mouth / face
Aerosol transmission
Fecal oral route
What if someone is sick?
If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate.  There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home.  Most cases are mild.  But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19.  The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease.  ie to prevent sepsis.
If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China.  Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll.  Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19.  If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines.  [More I found online.]
Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
Your immune system declines past age 50
Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness.  These conditions are higher in older adults.   
Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.  
What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?  
Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful.  Here’s why.
Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test.  No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA.  However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.  
The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.
Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.


How well is society preparing for the impact?
Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak.  UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot.  They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus.  They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities.  But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
School closures are one the biggest societal impacts.  We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects.  If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.  
Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis.  They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months.  Other solutions will have to be found.
What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
Kids home due to school closures
[Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office.  When he returned we asked what the call covered.]  The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action.  The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions.  ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.  
Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  
The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.
Observations on China
Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.  
While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand.  Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks.  Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
Early on no one had info on COVID-19.  So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.  
Every few years there seems another:  SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19.  Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria.  Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
"We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."  
But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.  
As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa.  See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.


Jeffrey C. Walker

Sent from my iPhone

[FondrenRoad 4378]

5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, Tehran is 31k/sq mi.

Definitely a factor.  Not surprising, but worth considering.

Manhattan is 70k/sq mile based on residential density alone. But since its the largest business district in the world, its about 3 to 4 times that density on the average weekday.

Today, it was a ghost town compared to what it usually looks like. 

[Hook1997 5354]

9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Did you nut in her or pull out

I don’t think either helps my case with corona....

[Radical Larry 28609]

20 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

A girl I was in Very close contact with this weekend has a fever now, she seems to think it’s not a big deal...   I was like you better keep me updated on your health status tomorrow!  Can we start my wreath fund?  More worried about the fact I had contact with my 75 year old dad yesterday. 

Maybe she just needs more cowbell.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

From that wall of words:

Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  

[ztejas 43443]

10 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

LOL, no offense but everyone is working on a vaccine.  Not just Canada.  I'd be shocked if they were even remotely close...everyone reputable working on it has said they're not close.  I heard several other experts say similar death rates - but to be very fucking clear...these are thoughts of some of the top people in the field.  Those death rates aren't my opinion...none of that stuff is mine.  The panel is listed at the top.  I know you probably saw that but I just want to reiterate.  Also, you should look at any of this critically, I'm not knocking you for that.  Carry on...

 

Edit:   https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-12/why-does-it-take-so-long-to-make-a-coronavirus-vaccine

Nothing can stop a global outbreak in its tracks better than a vaccine. Unfortunately, creating a vaccine capable of preventing the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 will probably take at least a year to 18 months, health officials say.

“That is the time frame,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee this week. Anyone who says they can do it faster “will be cutting corners that would be detrimental.”

 

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Damor 1236]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

From that wall of words:

Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  

 

[staboner 4969]

2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Jesus. How many world leaders is this thing gonna take out?

 

sadly, not enough i am afraid

[TwiceHorn 31470]

5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

The problem is not developing the vaccine, per se.  It's testing it for safety/effectiveness.  Even on an accelerated schedule, it will take months to insure that it isn't more harmful than helpful.

[Damor 1236]

Edited March 13, 2020 by Damor
dammit Kevin, I can't even remember the name of the damned website.

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

..."There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems)...

..."You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'...."

Spoiler

ITV News has obtained a recording of two Milanese doctors about the situations at their hospitals over coronavirus. Credit: AP

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation.

Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the danger of infection so great.

But it's really important people understand just how bad things are, not least because it is where we may be headed.

So I will continue to write here about conversations, emails or recordings with those who are still under quarantine in Italy.

Some will be Britons who have stayed on, some Italians, some doctors. I start with a voice recording of two Milanese doctors speaking on WhatsApp about the situation at their hospitals.

• Audio of the two Milanese doctors speaking about the coronavirus situation at their hospitals

 

 

 

 

 

Play Video

The first identifies herself as Martina, but I believe she is Martina Crivellari, an intensive care cardiac anaesthesiologist at the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan.

She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators.

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

A man wearing a protective mask looks up as he walks along the Vittorio Emanuele Gallery shopping arcade. Credit: AP

She added: "This virus is so infectious that the only way to avoid a 'massacre' is to have the least number possible getting infected over the longest possible timescale.

"Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

"Lombardy, which has the best healthcare in the country, is collapsing, so I don’t dare to think what would happen in less efficient regions.

"We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles.

"But the very young are crazy carriers.

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".

A Carabinieri (Italian paramilitary police) officer on patrol at former military hospital. Credit: AP

The other voice on the recording is a male doctor who we have so far not been able to identify, except that he works at Niguarda Hospital in Milan, one of the biggest in the city.

"We have closed down entire wards, and reduced the number of beds in traditional wards.

"All operations have been cancelled, GP surgeries closed so the that the GPs can come in and be ward doctors.

"The number of ICU beds has been tripled. There was even pressure to take over our Cardiac ICU."

"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."

Medical personnel in a coronavirus quarantined area in northern Italy. Credit: AP

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'."

He continued: "Non-specialised medical graduates are being brought in.

"At Milan’s Policlinico hospital they are dealing with 50 new pneumonia cases every day".

Milan's Policlinico hospital are dealing with 50 penumonia cases a day, according to a doctor. Credit: AP

The World Health Organisation ranks Italy second in the world for health care provision, with only France rated higher. The UK is 18th.

That is across the whole country, but Lombardy is the richest region in Italy and likely to be way ahead of some regions in the south.

And yet even a system as good as this is teetering on the brink.

How would the NHS cope if - or perhaps we should say when - our infection rate is as high as Italy's?

Let’s hope the Italian experience is giving us time to prepare.

 

I wonder how our tent city hospitals will hold up when one of our spring severe thunderstorms barrels through.

Edited March 13, 2020 by clapclapclap

[ztejas 43443]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Also, you should look at any of this critically, I'm not knocking you for that.  Carry on...

I mean that's what I'm doing. I'm just trying to create discourse. Projecting deaths in the tens of thousands to the multiple millions is always going to have some error. I'm being a skeptic and wondering what the lower limit of that is. 

Maybe it hits the upper limit - I don't know - I'm just wary of trusting any source unilaterally when the media is drowned this badly. 

[ztejas 43443]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

..."There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems)...

..."You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

"There aren’t the resources to screen doctors for Covid-19 anymore - they’re just telling them 'stay home if you have symptoms, otherwise come to work'...."

Looking at why it's hitting Italy so hard and not places like South Korea should be an interesting case study. 

[Sbbruin 21853]

3 hours ago, staboner said:

you need to be extra paranoid and vigilant. you will interact with plenty of folks during your day that show no signs and have it. if i was in your shoes i would be self quarantined with your food and booze man. good luck. 

I’m on an immunosuppressive drug, remicade, to treat an autoimmune condition.  I would like to subscribe to the booze and food quarantine protocol.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Looking at why it's hitting Italy so hard and not places like South Korea should be an interesting case study. 

i think we've covered that.

sk went hard on the hong kong / singapore model and if not for the crazy cultist bitch they would have even better numbers.

italy: single payer, but graft economy with 10 years of retreat plus it's italy, it's an older population, they sex it up good, and it's italy.

which means we're doomed.  maybe.

[BLKNSTY 289]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16580]

So what comes after we slow the curve? We keep slowing the curve, for months and months? Years? We go back to normal and this fucks us again?

Quoting again not to pick on you but you point something else out. I won't quote@ChiTownDoc because the post was so long, but the UCSF panel sees this cycling through the nation over the next year.

Let's say a little less than half the nation gets it: 150mm.

The countries that have practiced effective social distancing and successfully flattened the curve (China, after Wuhan, and South Korea) have had a fatality rate of less than one percent. Let's call it one percent for argument's sake.

Countries that have not (Italy, Iran, China in Wuhan before they knew what was going on) have a fatality rate of three to five percent. For argument's sake lets call this two percent to account for undocumented cases. Note we're not doing that with the other rate.

150mm Americans get it. Let's say it's a shit show at first in Washington, CA, NY, TX, etc. But the country gets the point and reacts better in areas with more time in other areas. Call the fatality rate 1.25 percent overall.

150mm x 1% = 1,500,000 dead.

150mm x 1.25% = 1,875,000 dead.

At a pretty conservative estimate, flattening the curve stands to save 375,000 lives. It's the equivalent of avoiding a nuclear weapon detonating over a major city.

So to answer your question, what happens after flattening the curve? 375,000 people get to keep living.

[Hook1997 5354]

23 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:

Maybe she just needs more cowbell.

Speaking of which what happened to the guy that was in that band, did he make it over?  I forget his name?

[gmr548 16580]

Looking at why it's hitting Italy so hard and not places like South Korea should be an interesting case study. 

It's not rocket science. They shut shit down in Asia. The west hasn't.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

For all the degenerates, this place has some smart MF.  Actually degenerates are usually the smartest people.  At least I tell myself that.  I feel better already.  

[atomheartbevo 89665]

37 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.

Last week, Pence promised a million.  Then his staff walked that back.  

This past Sunday, the Surgeon General of the United States claimed there were 75,000 on hand Sunday, that 2 million would be available on Monday, and 4 million by the end of the week (in partnership with private industry).

What in the Wide World of Sports is going on?  Are they producing millions of kits or tests or whatever, but we can only process a few thousand a day, if that?

Edited March 13, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[ztejas 43443]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

For all the degenerates, this place has some smart MF.  Actually degenerates are usually the smartest people.  At least I tell myself that.  I feel better already.  

I can't tell if this is ironic or not but idgaf I'm repping it either way. 

[Pato del Muerto 52498]

27 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Appreciate the post but this is a pretty big assumption. SK already got the death rate below 1%. Recently read Canada is working on a vaccine. I might be totally wrong to put some faith in medical science in 2020 but there's a chance we figure this thing out much more quickly than 18 months from now. 

Flu is like 0.02. 10x is .2, SK is at .7. 

[ztejas 43443]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Flu is like 0.02. 10x is .2, SK is at .7. 

I'm not comparing it to the flu. No shit this is worse than the annual flu. I'm saying that certain countries have had huge successes in preventing hospitalizations and deaths with certain countermeasuers. Maybe the entire globe can try and implement practices akin to what SK did and we can avoid some of the larger death/hosp. estimates?

[atomheartbevo 89665]

On the 10th, the CDC says 373 tests were processed.   On the 11th, 5.   Not sure if these are positives   But something is seriously wrong   

[atomheartbevo 89665]

For all of the discussion about CFR, I don’t care whether overall it’s 1% or 2%.  

What I care about is olds in their late 60s, early 70s, and 80s.   Because that’s the folks in my family most at risk, and the death rate is pretty high for those groups, particularly with underlying health issues.  

It’s easy for folks to blow off 1-3%, but start explaining that for some diabetic 65 year-old, it starts climbing into double digits, and you can get their attention.  

Edited March 13, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Hook1997 5354]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Last week, Pence promised a million.  Then his staff walked that back.  

This past Sunday, the Surgeon General of the United States claimed there were 75,000 on hand Sunday, that 2 million would be available on Monday, and 4 million by the end of the week (in partnership with private industry).

What in the Wide World of Sports is going on?  Are they producing millions of kits or tests or whatever, but we can only process a few thousand a day, if that?

Supposedly we decided the foreign test we had from Asia weren't good enough so instead of using then we would use ones we made, so they threw out those tests...  So we wait for test that were not ready,  fucking brilliant!  Not a political post but that’s just fucking dumb

Edited March 13, 2020 by Hook1997

[Bama Chick 28596]

This seems bad.

[aggie08 21504]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s easy for folks to blow off 1-3%

No one who passed 6th grade math is blowing off 1% when there's talk of 40+% of the country getting it at some point. 1% for something as contagious as this is a huge fucking number.