Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

Gotta make ends meet...

[HenryJames 65887]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Gotta make ends meet...

First wipe is free.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

And if we have 250000 cases out there today, running a R0 of 5+ in reverse, factoring a 2-week time-to-die number, we should have thousands of dead.
Someone please run that math.

I don’t get it either. We should have a death count of hundreds or thousand reported since we all believe it’s been here for months.

[Loco 3752]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I don’t get it either. We should have a death count of hundreds or thousand reported since we all believe it’s been here for months.

First of all you speak for you.  We don't all believe shit.

 

[Schulz2.0 28764]

26 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Your numbers are based on all those cases being resolved. 

That wild ass guess by the doctor certainly doesn't help matters any, though. 

You're wasting your time trying to explain how this works to the "it's just like the flu" retards.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Schulz2.0

[Fuck Tim Beck 3806]

8 minutes ago, Deej said:

Of all the times we could've used a disaster scientist on this board.

We all need that kind we need a giant knot on our heads 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

First of all you speak for you.  We don't all believe shit.
 

Ok. So how long do YOU believe it’s been in our country

[Bama Chick 28596]

I don’t get it either. We should have a death count of hundreds or thousand reported since we all believe it’s been here for months.

Well, how many deaths over the past month in patients with other medical conditions - COPD, emphysema, CHF, etc. - have been given a cause of death such as pneumonia or heart failure or whatever?

I may be off but Covid-19 alone is killing these people, right?

[Hagbard Celine 10752]

with the testimony of at least 5 different people on this thread, it's been here since december, but the either the R0 or the CFR or both are not behaving the same here as elsewhere.  we'll find out soon enough.

[davidg 4025]

 

Yea smart move getting your name, location and stash on the internet. Especially something small like The NY Times. He’ll be robbed and empty by tonight

Hand Sanitizer is extremely flammable, it would be a shame if his garage accidentally caught on fire.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

You're wasting your time trying to explain how this works to the "it's just like the flu" retards.

This should be the temporary banner.  

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

with the testimony of at least 5 different people on this thread, it's been here since december, but the either the R0 or the CFR or both are not behaving the same here as elsewhere.  we'll find out soon enough.

I believe there are different more virulent strains.  That’s just conjecture.  Far from scientific fact.  But it’s Novel to us all.  
I am drinking so I don’t have the time to explain it all.  
 

[akhornfan 4]

 

 

28 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

seattle grid:

events: 4

customers 82

https://utilisocial.io/apps/#/events/map?group=SeattleCityLight

get out of here with facts. Did you you read that his friend told him?

[Loco 3752]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok. So how long do YOU believe it’s been in our country

I won't pretend to know.  Unlike you. 

I'll wait to see what informed experts think.  Not like that matters after the horrible fucking bungling of our response.   I do think we will have a pretty good idea based on rates of infection and growth of cases that will point back to multiple infections started in different parts of the country at different times.

[justhookit 4177]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

with the testimony of at least 5 different people on this thread, it's been here since december, but the either the R0 or the CFR or both are not behaving the same here as elsewhere.  we'll find out soon enough.

Or you know, those people who think they had it in December actually had a cold or flu or other virus.

[Mack Tripper 696]

Welp one of son’s kindergarten classmates tested positive.

[Hagbard Celine 10752]

4 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

You're wasting your time trying to explain how this works to the "it's just like the flu" retards.

current live look at my entire extended family:

 

i gave up trying today.  i hope they survive.

 

[closetojumping 62218]

50 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Fucking great. I just got settled in for two weeks of moderate isolation in Galveston and now the plague is here. Crossing my fingers that the pier amusement park is still riproaring and going!

 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

40 minutes ago, F250 said:

Talked to a buddy who works at HEB HQ. He said that yeah shit is crazy but the hoarding isn't new to them despite it happening on a bigger scale. They have protocols in place to keep the goods flowing but they need to get through this initial wave of hoarding first. Plenty of food to go around they just need people to stop buying a month's worth of toilet paper at one time. He also mentioned that the suppliers are throttling orders across the board but they are HEB so that shouldn't be a major issue.

Mentioned there is an effort to scale up curbside and other online services but the current hoarding is making things difficult.

I think what he means is suppliers are allocating product.  All suppliers of most everything are at full capacity 24/7 right now.  No one is "throttling" anyone.  HEB's problem is they're specifically in Texas and they're reliant on what the big brands can produce in the Texas region.  They're not going to cut orders from Publix to ship something from the SE to HEB, at least not in this landscape.

On the national scene with the big brands, HEB isn't as big as your friends thinks.  They're important but there are people swinging much bigger dicks.

[Bevo 13525]

 

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

First part - Why is it unlikely for healthcare workers to get antibodies from cured individuals?

Second - Is it heat or UV light that kills the coronavirus? 

Q1

First, the safety and efficacy of inoculating uninfected healthcare workers is questionable at best. Second, I can't see healthcare workers wanting to get treatment when healthy over giving it to others who are sick.

Q2

This probably explains it better than I can: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/how-long-do-cold-and-flu-viruses-stay-contagious-on-public-surfaces

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Bevo

[Hagbard Celine 10752]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Or you know, those people who think they had it in December actually had a cold or flu or other virus.

we have had multiple people in this thread testify they felt a crushing chest condition they had never felt in their lives.

[Surly Bevo 24695]

Wasn't first confirmed case in United States something like January 20th or 21st (about the time this thread started) I don't know what that means for any of the other parts of the argument but at least as a starting point...there's ya'll a date.  

[Loco 3752]

Don't say I never do anything for you guys...

 

[Telegraph_it 3354]

Well this isn’t great. 

 

[Dahobbs 17437]

18 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

New Haven/West Haven/East Haven are depressing shit holes. I guess East Haven was ok. New Haven outside of Yale's campus is a mess. 

[stone oak 639]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

we have had multiple people in this thread testify they felt a crushing chest condition they had never felt in their lives.

“It’s just the flu, stop being a pussy.”

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Well, how many deaths over the past month in patients with other medical conditions - COPD, emphysema, CHF, etc. - have been given a cause of death such as pneumonia or heart failure or whatever?

I may be off but Covid-19 alone is killing these people, right?

Yea I agree. We’d see something about that from February by now wouldn’t you think?

[EuroHorn 3204]

24 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So all these "friend who's a doctor in Spain/Italy told me" tweets about young people dropping dead are starting to work on me.  AFK for a while.

Good advice from Georgia Tech 

 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Oh shit.

[PittsburghTiger 6137]

Has Canada stopped direct flights from China?

[Telegraph_it 3354]

Fuck. That’s not great. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I won't pretend to know.  Unlike you. 
I'll wait to see what informed experts think.  Not like that matters after the horrible fucking bungling of our response.   I do think we will have a pretty good idea based on rates of infection and growth of cases that will point back to multiple infections started in different parts of the country at different times.

Ok sorry for offending you. I was just trying to put a couple pieces to the massive puzzle together. If/when I’m wrong we all move on...maybe.

[utee94 15745]

23 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

And if we have 250000 cases out there today, running a R0 of 5+ in reverse, factoring a 2-week time-to-die number, we should have thousands of dead.

Someone please run that math.

 

12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I don’t get it either. We should have a death count of hundreds or thousand reported since we all believe it’s been here for months.

I ran a quick model in Excel making these assumptions: Infected population doubles every 3 days, 3% death rate with a 2 week lag:

250,000 infected out there today,  there should be 234 deaths right now.

50,000 infected currently, there should be 47 deaths.

Two weeks from now, all assumptions from above remain constant, then we'll have 7,500 deaths or 1,500 deaths, respectively.

[ztejas 43262]

"Manage media consumption so you don’t get overwhelmed."

Love this advice from GaTech 

[stone oak 639]

2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Good advice from Georgia Tech 

 

 

Staying home/avoiding public spaces >>>>>>>> washing hands in public spaces

[Macanudo 12925]

Question about the 10 pages of obits in the paper..... what's a normal pre-coronvirus day/week look like there?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I ran a quick model in Excel making these assumptions: Infected population doubles every 3 days, 3% death rate with a 2 week lag:
250,000 infected out there today,  there should be 234 deaths right now.
50,000 infected currently, there should be 47 deaths.
Two weeks from now, all assumptions from above remain constant, then we'll have 7,500 deaths or 1,500 deaths, respectively.

Gotcha. I guess Jan 20thish is our bench mark so we should be 6 weeks in...or did we bump that back a few weeks? Either way I agree we’re probably 50k cases in the country

[ztejas 43262]

Just now, Macanudo said:

Question about the 10 pages of obits in the paper..... what's a normal pre-coronvirus day/week look like there?

9, 9 and a half.

[davidg 4025]

We had one of these on the submarine for use when we weren't going to surface for a while. We refered to it as "The Bomb"
One spark in the wrong place near the pure H2 and pure O2 it produced was bad juju.
We typically only ran it to perform maintenance and make sure it worked. We would do anything we could to not have to run it.

Most people on O2 use a concentrator that just increases the % oxygen pumped the their mask. Most machines also have adapter to fill and pressurize bottles.

[EuroHorn 3204]

6 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Question about the 10 pages of obits in the paper..... what's a normal pre-coronvirus day/week look like there?

 

don’t know. Here’s what it looks like post 

Edited March 14, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Post Oak 20183]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

I had been leaning on her the past few days to not go and it created much stress between us. But when I showed her the Bishop’s online dispensation statement today she broke down and wept, saying that she had already planned to stay home.

Hopefully then she will avoid catching it and I can go ahead to consume those DQ Blizzards and just die from an ordinary heart attack. 

Tell her your internet friends will make fun of you if she goes/went.

[Hagbard Celine 10752]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

I ran a quick model in Excel making these assumptions: Infected population doubles every 3 days, 3% death rate with a 2 week lag:

250,000 infected out there today,  there should be 234 deaths right now.

50,000 infected currently, there should be 47 deaths.

Two weeks from now, all assumptions from above remain constant, then we'll have 7,500 deaths or 1,500 deaths, respectively.

and just for shits and giggles at this moment the johns hopkins arcgis is reporting:

total US cases: 2572

US deaths: 51 or 58 depending on whether or not you count the boat

WA 37

Diamond Princess boat 7

CA 5

FL 3

CO 1

GA 1

KS 1

NJ 1

NY 1

SD 1

[clapclapclap 9000]

19 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I did get an email that FMCSA is suspending regs for hours of service on anything transported related to Covid. Groceries and other consumer goods were included in the list. 

Wartime necessity, but the flip side is more of them will be worn down from even more lack of sleep and thus a weakened immune system.  For some that may end up being the difference between a relatively mild case and potentially not recovering.

Transportation may be about to be stung by one of those side effects that almost no one thinks of.  I'm not familiar with the Hours of Service regulations for every mode, but for trucking and railroads it is almost completely based on politics rather than science and medicine.  While improved in recent decades, they are still somewhat of a joke for what they were intended to do:  Insure adequate sleep so fatigued workers don't continue to cause deadly accidents.  For railroads the latest change was the equivalent of if Solomon's literally splitting the baby had actually been enacted.  

The majority of railroad workers are on call 24/7.  The shifts are constantly rotating (every time they are called to work, very few have actual jobs with a scheduled start time) so there is never a set sleep pattern.  Really bad for your health long-term.  On top of that, since the hedge funders took over, personnel have been sliced to the absolute minimum, resulting in worker shortages, vacation days not be allowed to be used, new ridiculous attendance policies that allow only one medical excused absence per month, etc.  Most come to work sick, afraid of losing their jobs.

There is a case in NJ now where an engineer marked off to self-quarantine for CV after his wife was exposed to a person who tested positive.  The carrier's medical staff refused his request for 14-days off, stating he only was allowed 5 days of medical leave.  He took off anyways, and if the gov't/public pressure doesn't intervene there is a good chance he will be fired and the firing upheld by an arbitrator.

He's lucky, NJ Transit is a paradise compared to the draconian policies now in place with freight carriers.  Because railroad workers effectively no longer have a strike option, I think it likely that there will be a widespread CV sickout by the end of the month that almost shuts down the freight railroads.

[utee94 15745]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Gotcha. I guess Jan 20thish is our bench mark so we should be 6 weeks in...or did we bump that back a few weeks? Either way I agree we’re probably 50k cases in the country

Well if we run the numbers from 250K backwards with my assumptions, then on 1/20 we have 1 infection, so there you have it. Running 50K backwards gives us our first infection on 1/26.

But these assumptions are by no means a given.  We don't REALLY know if actual infected cases are doubling every 3 days, and we don't REALLY know if the death rate is 3%.  

[Schulz2.0 28764]

16 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Well this isn’t great. 

 

It's a small data set so it's very possible that this is just coincidental. Also, SK's mortality rate skews low because a sizable portion of confirmed cases are young females.

[dcbc 14404]

3 hours ago, Deej said:

You could always take her body past the pet sematary, over the dead fall, and up to the old Micmac burial ground.

How many steps is it to the top?  45?  I've forgotten.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Well if we run the numbers from 250K backwards with my assumptions, then on 1/20 we have 1 infection, so there you have it. Running 50K backwards gives us our first infection on 1/26.
But these assumptions are by no means a given.  We don't REALLY know if actual infected cases are doubling every 3 days, and we don't REALLY know if the death rate is 3%.  

Right agreed.


Just gives me something to read while i sit at home this weekend

[gmr548 16491]

15 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Well this isn’t great. 

 

I wonder if that has anything to do with the distribution of who's being tested. We essentially know it does in Italy, who are not doing any kind of widespread testing at this point. The huge spike in the 20's specifically is really weird (and kind of terrifying), otherwise.

13 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Oh shit.

 

Damn. From what I'd seen previously newborns from patients had come back negative.

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

I ran a quick model in Excel making these assumptions: Infected population doubles every 3 days, 3% death rate with a 2 week lag:

250,000 infected out there today,  there should be 234 deaths right now.

50,000 infected currently, there should be 47 deaths.

Two weeks from now, all assumptions from above remain constant, then we'll have 7,500 deaths or 1,500 deaths, respectively.

I guess 50k-500k was right, hah. We've got 50 documented deaths now, so within than range, just barely. But a good chunk of those are in the one nursing home outbreak in WA, which definitely skews things. So on the one hand, you could argue based on those numbers that it maybe hasn't been here as long. My guess would be that a three percent death rate is probably a high estimate for cases to this point because there haven't been enough to overburden the health system, but we'll see it rise as we get to a point where there are more patients than beds.

[Hagbard Celine 10752]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Well if we run the numbers from 250K backwards with my assumptions, then on 1/20 we have 1 infection, so there you have it. Running 50K backwards gives us our first infection on 1/26.

But these assumptions are by no means a given.  We don't REALLY know if actual infected cases are doubling every 3 days, and we don't REALLY know if the death rate is 3%.  

yeah, but i guarantee you this.  the surl will figure this shit out DAYS before it hits the MSM.

[landman 559]

54 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's an incomplete picture because we don't know how many of these cases are going to result in deaths.

Exactly.  And to say it's a 3% mortality rate is wrong as well, yet we've about collapsed the economy and have everyone in a panic. 

But the data suggests it will be more flu like levels. Not everyone gets tested for the flu, so they estimate how many get it. This thing has been here for weeks, not days. And thousands are estimated to have already had it and recovered.