Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[SydneyCarton 48075]

Just now, SwanderedTalent said:

oh you won't have to wait that long for it to suck

Suck even more, then. 

[Shaggybevo 353]

Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt are set to make an announcement regarding the coronavirus outbreak at 11 a.m. Tuesday.

The announcement will come as Austin remains one of the few remaining large Texas cities to not adopt Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations to limit large gatherings to 50 people.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Shaggybevo said:

Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt are set to make an announcement regarding the coronavirus outbreak at 11 a.m. Tuesday.

The announcement will come as Austin remains one of the few remaining large Texas cities to not adopt Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations to limit large gatherings to 50 people.

Wow !  Are there colleges that haven't shut down ?

Edited March 17, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

Austin should have done it earlier.

Also, fridge/freezer died overnight. Seems like the worst possible time for this. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

46 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Never owned a pocket protector... but I do still have three or four slide rules, and a box of non-working calculators with more keys than a laptop.

You'll pry this bad boy from my cold dead fingers

Edited March 17, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[Huckleberry 32851]

Oh man, so close. I was hoping that picture was going to be of my baby, the HP 48GX. But close enough.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Oh man, so close. I was hoping that picture was going to be of my baby, the HP 48GX. But close enough.

The GX is too modern for my tastes.  The pastel color scheme is just rubbish.

[Pancho 44757]

 

[Not a cat 5652]

6 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Austin should have done it earlier.

Also, fridge/freezer died overnight. Seems like the worst possible time for this. 

crap, gif won't load.  Something about pets heads falling off.  

Edited March 17, 2020 by Not a cat

[ChickenSandwich 9832]

Corona passes Yellow fever of #of daily world wide deaths at 88vs 82

Next up is Rabies at 162. Let’s hope the gap continues. 

Tuberculosis clear #1 at over 3,000 deaths per day  (WW)

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Edited March 17, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[NoName 16351]

 

[Digdogger 1344]

4 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Corona passes Yellow fever of #of daily world wide deaths at 88vs 82

Next up is Rabies at 162. Let’s hope the gap continues. 

Tuberculosis clear #1 at over 3,000 deaths per day  (WW)

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

I see AEA is left off that list.  That's the number one killer in my community

[ztejas 43418]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

British researchers are batting in the minor leagues so far on this one.

[Pancho 44757]

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

British researchers are batting in the minor leagues so far on this one.

I would argue that’s why the word “could” is there and not “will.”

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

28 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

A tale as old as time.  Young bright kid arrives on campus with dreams of getting a 4.0 in an in demand degree.  Discovers pussy and beer and says fuck it, liberal arts will do for now.

Source, graduated (eventually) with history major.

If you didn't discover pussy and beer until college, you did high school totally wrong.

[VABuckeye 2472]

13 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You'll pry this bad boy from my cold dead fingers

Reverse Polish notation FTW.

Edited March 17, 2020 by VABuckeye

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

6 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

I see AEA is left off that list.  That's the number one killer in my community

What's AEA?  Googletrons came up with nothing relevant.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

10 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Corona passes Yellow fever of #of daily world wide deaths at 88vs 82

Next up is Rabies at 162. Let’s hope the gap continues. 

Tuberculosis clear #1 at over 3,000 deaths per day  (WW)

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Awesome - I got a yellow fever vaccination when I went to Africa in the 90s because the doctor said "it's fucking everywhere there."

[Skipper 6133]

29 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Scary as fuck for sure.  Seems like at some point the self distancing should create a lull ??

 I wouldn't think any "lull" in the numbers from social distancing will be seen for 3-4 weeks.  As of today, we still aren't testing at anything resembling scale.   Maybe 2 weeks from now we are? Also, it seems like maybe today is day 1 of legitimate social distancing.  With the incubation period, most that were infected yesterday won't show symptoms for 4-7 days.  Then, to the extent they are able to get a test, we likely won't know results for 1-3 days.  I'm sure there are those that have thought this through a lot more than me but it almost seems like we shouldn't really even pay attention to 'confirmed case' data for at least another 2 weeks and then see if there is a trend over the course of the following weeks.  Of course the big assumption there is that we are actually testing a decent percentage of symptomatic cases.

And then of course, "serious cases" and "deaths" are going to lag even further.  But per the debate last night (one poster saying his theory is that it's overblown but we may never know who's right) I don't think that's right.  It seems like we should be able to look at confirmed testing data + severe case rate + death rate from the period 2-8 weeks from now and see where things land and get a decent chance of how much worse it might have been.   

[VABuckeye 2472]

HP 12C was my weapon of choice.  Years in the mortgage industry.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

Welp, this seems unwise....

 

 

Thousands attended Miami gay festival; several later tested positive for coronavirus

As the coronavirus continues to spread and disrupt life worldwide, one festival is finding the memory of its celebrations tinged by the outbreak.

The Winter Party Festival, an annual, weeklong LGBTQ event held in Miami, drew thousands from across the country when it kicked off earlier this month. But though it ended March 10, in the week following the event several attendees have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to festival organizers.

“We know there are many places people could have been exposed before and after Winter Party as this virus has developed, but we wanted to make this information public as soon as possible,” Rea Carey, executive director of the National LGBTQ Task Force, which organized the festival, said in a statement Monday. “The health and safety of anyone who participates in any Task Force event is of great importance to us.”

The festival, which began March 4 and drew 10,000 attendees throughout the week, predates the current wave of event cancellations that have swept through the nation and ranged from sporting leagues to tech conferences. In her statement, Carey emphasized that event organizers “made the most informed decision at the time, following all official guidance available at the time.”

Event organizers took additional precautions during the festival, distributing 10,000 hand sanitizer bottles and hygiene information to attendees. It remains unclear whether the virus was present in attendees for the duration of the festival, as none experienced symptoms at the time, but health officials warn the virus can still be transmitted before symptoms occur. While incubation period estimates range from 1 to 14 days, it is most commonly around 5 days, according to the World Health Organization.

One by one, states and cities have begun to prohibit large crowds in an attempt to curb the virus’ spread. In Washington state, several counties have banned crowds over 250 people, while New York city has implemented a similar ban for gatherings over 500. On Monday, President Donald Trump announced new guidelines which advised against gatherings of more than 10 people.

While the National LGBTQ Task Force did not confirm how many attendees have tested positive for COVID-19 at this time, in an email Carey pointed to the inability for many to get tested for the virus.

“We are monitoring the situation but the real story here is that millions of people across the country would like to get tested and the government has not done its job to make testing available,” she said. “We hope that as people do get tested, they contact those with whom they have been in direct contact with and seek medical attention if necessary.”

[SydneyCarton 48075]

13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Not to make light of anything, but these fucktards were going all in on Herd Immunity just a couple days ago and were reading projections for the wrong virus in their models or some shit. At this point, listening to them would be like listening to a seminar held by Greenspoint about how not to scream at people in public, or a class led by Iconoclast talking about the power of prayer healing in large groups. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Skipper said:

 I wouldn't think any "lull" in the numbers from social distancing will be seen for 3-4 weeks.  As of today, we still aren't testing at anything resembling scale.   Maybe 2 weeks from now we are? Also, it seems like maybe today is day 1 of legitimate social distancing.  With the incubation period, most that were infected yesterday won't show symptoms for 4-7 days.  Then, to the extent they are able to get a test, we likely won't know results for 1-3 days.  I'm sure there are those that have thought this through a lot more than me but it almost seems like we shouldn't really even pay attention to 'confirmed case' data for at least another 2 weeks and then see if there is a trend over the course of the following weeks.  Of course the big assumption there is that we are actually testing a decent percentage of symptomatic cases.

And then of course, "serious cases" and "deaths" are going to lag even further.  But per the debate last night (one poster saying his theory is that it's overblown but we may never know who's right) I don't think that's right.  It seems like we should be able to look at confirmed testing data + severe case rate + death rate from the period 2-8 weeks from now and see where things land and get a decent chance of how much worse it might have been.   

Yes, good points, makes sense.  The infections already in the pipeline will present like Italy.  

Have good bud who's daughter is at Johns Hopkins now, they're setting up specific wards, and protocols as we speak. Hopefully this is being done at every medical center.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

45 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Scary.. it continues to hold true...

Italy on 3/6 - 4,636

USA on 3/17 - 4,748

Explain to me the significance of this.  I get that we're on or slightly ahead of the same track about 10 days apart, but we have a higher population by roughly 5x.  So we're at a 20% level from a relative population standpoint.  If, at the end of the day we end up with the same absolute number of infections as Italy that would be effectively an 80% more effective quarantine.

So shouldn't we expect our numbers to start to far outstrip Italy if we're on the same curve?

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Explain to me the significance of this.  I get that we're on or slightly ahead of the same track about 10 days apart, but we have a higher population by roughly 5x.  So we're at a 20% level from a relative population standpoint.  If, at the end of the day we end up with the same absolute number of infections as Italy that would be effectively an 80% more effective quarantine.

So shouldn't we expect our numbers to start to far outstrip Italy if we're on the same curve?

Pretty sure italy is testing more than we are 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not to make light of anything, but these fucktards were going all in on Herd Immunity just a couple days ago and were reading projections for the wrong virus in their models or some shit. At this point, listening to them would be like listening to a seminar held by Greenspoint about how not to scream at people in public, or a class led by Iconoclast talking about the power of prayer healing in large groups. 

[VABuckeye 2472]

1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Explain to me the significance of this.  I get that we're on or slightly ahead of the same track about 10 days apart, but we have a higher population by roughly 5x.  So we're at a 20% level from a relative population standpoint.  If, at the end of the day we end up with the same absolute number of infections as Italy that would be effectively an 80% more effective quarantine.

So shouldn't we expect our numbers to start to far outstrip Italy if we're on the same curve?

We'll have to see how it grows in our higher population centers.  We have more of those with confirmed cases than Italy.  I hope at worst we stay at the same rate as Italy in terms of confirmed cases.

[Digdogger 1344]

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What's AEA?  Googletrons came up with nothing relevant.

Check your internet connection.

AEA is Auto Erotic Asphyxiation.  I spend most of my time these days teaching AEA awareness classes and seminars

[Tex Long 4384]

1 minute ago, Digdogger said:

Check your internet connection.

AEA is Auto Erotic Asphyxiation.  I spend most of my time these days teaching AEA awareness classes and seminars

POFO

[akhornfan 4]

6 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Pretty sure italy is testing more than we are 

Italy vs US Testing

at the same points lined up on the chart US is testing ahead of Italy

[The Royal We 3072]

My best friend's sister and brother in law in Dallas have it.  Their doctor wouldn't/couldn't give them a test, but diagnosed them and sent them home - I think this was ~10 days ago.  Brother in law is almost back to normal but his sister still has a fever and is miserable.  Her dumbass went by their parent's house days after being diagnosed because she didn't have symptoms.  He said that was 5 or 6 days ago and the parents aren't showing any signs of having it yet, but that was a completely unnecessary risk.

My parents in their late 60s are finally realizing this thing is not a hoax.  I got a text from my mom yesterday that she thought "shit was about to get real."  No joke, I wonder what changed yesterday to make her reevaluate?  Last week I was urging/cussing at them trying to get them to avoid going out as much as possible and they were polite about it, but pretty much waived me off.  My dad is 69, still hits the lung darts, has COPD, has 40% blockage in one of his arteries and is 30+ lbs overweight.  He played golf yesterday.  They live in a tiny town and the golf course is probably not the worst place to be, but burning heaters and hanging out with his old fart buddies is probably not the best idea right now.

[JBJ 3654]

13 hours ago, JBJ said:

10-day GR = 32.5%

5-day GR = 29.9%

March 16th O/U = 4,875 total  1,195 new

Final was at 4,663 and 983. (26.7%)

Updated for today:

10-day GR = 30.8%

5-day GR = 29.1%

March 17th O/U = 6,098 total & 1,435 new.

[dcar00 14181]

2 hours ago, NoName said:

do you know how insanely successful and lucky they would have to be to have this in 12 months, much less 6 months?

planning on it happening is dumb. it isn't going to be widely available in 6 months, it may not even be available at all in 6 months. 

edit: adding in this tweet - note the timeframe mentioned

 

 

have you seen the CDC timeline on Swine flu vaccine.  It was done in 6 months.  I'm not saying they didn't get lucky but christ it happened just 10 years ago.

[gmr548 16576]

Explain to me the significance of this.  I get that we're on or slightly ahead of the same track about 10 days apart, but we have a higher population by roughly 5x.  So we're at a 20% level from a relative population standpoint.  If, at the end of the day we end up with the same absolute number of infections as Italy that would be effectively an 80% more effective quarantine.
So shouldn't we expect our numbers to start to far outstrip Italy if we're on the same curve?

In theory, all else being equal, no, because we'd both be starting from one case. You'd expect similar numbers early on, with the number of US cases passing Italy once we got to a number where it started to slow down in Italy because it's burned through a high proportion of the population.

In practicality, the number on the US chart is meaningless in a broad sense because testing was actively suppressed early. We don't have any idea how many cases there are. We never will. What it shows is that the number of people that meet the silly testing criteria is multiplying at an exponential rate, similar to Italy. Which means it's been spreading with similar intensity. Which means the healthcare systems in hard hit areas are looking at a large influx of cases in the weeks to come.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

7 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Updated for today:

10-day GR = 30.8%

5-day GR = 29.1%

March 17th O/U = 6,098 total & 1,435 new.

I understand that there are confidence intervals and the change might not be significant and all, but on its face it looks like this is positive news?

Growth rate is starting to decline and short term declining more than longer says that quarantine (for lack of a better word) is starting to work? 

[Brisketexan 105094]

46 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt are set to make an announcement regarding the coronavirus outbreak at 11 a.m. Tuesday.

The announcement will come as Austin remains one of the few remaining large Texas cities to not adopt Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations to limit large gatherings to 50 people.

Per my contact at the county attorney's office, restaurants will be shut down for dine-in  (takeout and delivery still available), and gatherings of more than 10 people will be banned, effective at noon today.

[Pancho 44757]

24 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not to make light of anything, but these fucktards were going all in on Herd Immunity just a couple days ago and were reading projections for the wrong virus in their models or some shit. At this point, listening to them would be like listening to a seminar held by Greenspoint about how not to scream at people in public, or a class led by Iconoclast talking about the power of prayer healing in large groups. 

Genuinely curious who would have more patrons at their seminar—Greenspoint or Icono?

[Not a cat 5652]

29 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

If you didn't discover pussy and beer until college, you did high school totally wrong.

True.  But I figured the "unfettered access to" was implied.

[dcar00 14181]

7 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah, they're buying it as fast as they can, and raping their natural resources.  I don't know the numbers, but a Chinese presence in Africa is definitely a thing.

I need to use the winky face more often.

[VABuckeye 2472]

Icono is religion based so I'd go with him to attract the loons.  I'm not anti-religion.  It's just that the deeply religious are difficult to sway.

[SydneyCarton 48075]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Genuinely curious who would have more patrons at their seminar—Greenspoint or Icono?

Remember all those hardline Iranians storming the shrines a few days ago? Gotta think Icono wins walking away. 

[Loco 3752]

46 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You'll pry this bad boy from my cold dead fingers

yeah but can you play Moon Lander on it?

https://www.hpmuseum.org/software/25moonld.htm

 

I used to play that on my dad's old HP when I was a kid

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

I was briefly listening to a local radio station when a public service announcement came on regarding COVID-19 and CDC guidelines. They began by saying the most important precaution was to get the flu shot, if you hadn’t already, since the symptoms were the same, in order to avoid unnecessary panic/testing/etc. Ok, I can understand that. They proceeded to state good hygiene (hand washing, not touching face, etc) was the second most important action. I would put that at number one, but whatever.

Following those two suggestions, they continued to pass good information about distancing, self-quarantining,... However, as they were signing off they felt the need to remind everyone that the flu was the actual real danger to a majority of people. I think I know where they were going with that, but why downplay the importance of your message by concluding with “the shit we normally deal with is a bigger risk”?

[UT_OB1 2218]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

In theory, all else being equal, no, because we'd both be starting from one case. You'd expect similar numbers early on, with the number of US cases passing Italy once we got to a number where it started to slow down in Italy because it's burned through a high proportion of the population.

In practicality, the number on the US chart is meaningless in a broad sense because testing was actively suppressed early. We don't have any idea how many cases there are. We never will. What it shows is that the number of people that meet the silly testing criteria is multiplying at an exponential rate, similar to Italy. Which means it's been spreading with similar intensity. Which means the healthcare systems in hard hit areas are looking at a large influx of cases in the weeks to come.

 Not quite to the bolded.  The testing criteria AND the ability to test have both increased.  You're not tracking the spread of infection only.  You are tracking the changes who is being tested (as you mentioned) as well as the different labs abilities to get testing online.  The total number of cases data is currently useless.  

Edited March 17, 2020 by UT_OB1
trying to clarify agreeing on the criteria

[NoName 16351]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

have you seen the CDC timeline on Swine flu vaccine.  It was done in 6 months.  I'm not saying they didn't get lucky but christ it happened just 10 years ago.

you mean when they took the existing flu vaccine, basically grew the ingredients and then rolled out a new/different version specifically for H1N1/09?

that wasn't created from scratch.

there is no existing coronavirus vaccine they can essentially take, update and roll out.

edit: that timeline was (link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html)

• April 1 - CDC starts working to develop a candidate vaccine virus
• July 22 - clinical trials begin
• September 15 - FDA announces approval of 4 H1N1 vaccines
• September 30 - First orders placed
• October 5 - First doses of H1N1 vaccine given
• December - trial results published showing it  immunity response to it was excellent

again, COVID-19 is drastically different than taking an existing process, growing the seed stock, developing the vaccine and rolling it out.

Edited March 17, 2020 by NoName

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

1 minute ago, NoName said:

you mean when they took the existing flu vaccine, basically grew the ingredients and then rolled out a new/different version specifically for H1N1/09?

that shit wasn't created from scratch.

there is no existing coronavirus vaccine they can essentially take, update and roll out.

This. We arent seeing a vaccine before the end of the year. Full stop

[SHOOTER12 8800]

1 hour ago, Tex Long said:

Never owned a pocket protector... but I do still have three or four slide rules, and a box of non-working calculators with more keys than a laptop.

Fun For The Day:. Find a random kid and ask him/her to borrow a slide rule... the looks you get will be hilarious, as will the questions.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Per my contact at the county attorney's office, restaurants will be shut down for dine-in  (takeout and delivery still available), and gatherings of more than 10 people will be banned, effective at noon today.

Indefinitely, I assume?

[Red Five 40852]

I called my gym about suspending my membership. "Only with a letter of medical necessity from a doctor".

"I can assure you that my doctor doesn't want me to get covid-19."

But if gyms get shut down, are we all getting suspended memberships?

[NoName 16351]

6 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

This. We arent seeing a vaccine before the end of the year. Full stop

I don't understand why people keep believing this. 

You can believe folks who say that we are close to a vaccine or you can believe Dr. Fauci

Quote

During an appearance on CNN, Dr. Anthony Fauci from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases spoke about the tentative timeline for a coronavirus vaccine, saying that there is some confusion.

Fauci said that phase one of the vaccine safety trials is still one or two months away.

"In order to get a [coronavirus] vaccine that's practically deployable for people to use, it's going to be at least a year to a year and a half at best," said Fauci.

I, for one, am taking Dr. Fauci 100/100 times in this discussion. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by NoName