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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6787

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think you're a PT, right?  Good for you, you did the right thing.

My wife is a PT as well and she had ethical concerns with her clinic even remaining open at all. And sure enough on Monday, after a half-day, they decided to shut their doors for the next 4-6 weeks.  Luckily for her she only had two recent post-op patients on her schedule right now, and she was able to see both of them on Monday before her clinic shut down completely.  She was hands-off and focused on instruction for the next month or two while they're home, on their own.    She had all but 3 patients cancel Monday, anyway.

Other patients were even calling their front desk and, as they canceled their appointments, asking why the clinic was still open at all?  Lots of quarantine-shaming going on.

I am truly appalled by the response by my company. Still scheduling elderly for evals, basically telling us to keep scheduling people because “it’s a safe space!” How the fuck do you know this is a safe space, do you have some sort of virus-vision I’m not aware of? Husband and I discussed letting them know I wasn’t comfortable coming on and having patients come in. Decided we can’t afford for them to fire me right now, so just going with the flow until a decision comes. I have no doubt that upper management would want to maybe even let me go for calling patients, but my conscience is clear.  

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10864

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, triplehorn said:

We’re going to take a beating over the next month, but I genuinely think we’re going to turn this around faster than than expected without long term shelter in place measures.  

And we should still round up the dipshits on the beach and use them for the vaccine trials.  On principle.

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Shaggybevo

Shaggybevo 353

Posted
Posted (edited)

Austin based company Everlywell shipping at home CV19 test kits on Monday:

https://time.com/5805953/home-covid-19-test-everlywell/

They are currently constrained by worldwide shortage of swabs, but US Air Force airlifted 500k swabs from Italy to US yesterday:

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/us-air-force-c-17-moves-500000-swabs-from-italy-to-usa-and-activates-24/7-crisis-battle-staff/137381.article

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NoName

NoName 16351

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

PAYWALL.

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD COPYPASTA.

not sure it actually is but here you go

Quote

 

NYT: Can Smart Thermometers Track the Spread of the Coronavirus?


A company that makes internet-connected thermometers has followed the flu more closely than the C.D.C. can. Now the devices may be turning up cases of Covid-19.

 

Spoiler

 

Can Smart Thermometers Track the Spread of the Coronavirus?
A company that makes internet-connected thermometers has followed the flu more closely than the C.D.C. can. Now the devices may be turning up cases of Covid-19.


Kinsa Health has sold or given away more than a million smart thermometers to households.
Kinsa Health has sold or given away more than a million smart thermometers to households.Credit...Tony Cenicola/The New York Times
Donald G. McNeil Jr.
By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
March 18, 2020

A company that uses internet-connected thermometers to predict the spread of the flu says it is tracking the coronavirus in real time — something that had been impossible, given the lack of testing for the disease.

Kinsa Health has sold or given away more than a million smart thermometers to households in which two million people reside, and thus can record fevers almost as soon as consumers experience them.

For the last few years, Kinsa’s interactive maps have accurately predicted the spread of flu around the United States about two weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s own surveillance tool, the weekly FluView tracker.

The thermometer data “acts as an early warning system for illness spreading,” said Inder Singh, the company’s founder. The C.D.C.’s system lags because it relies on weekly reports from hundreds of doctors’ offices and hospital emergency rooms about what symptoms they are seeing in patients.

Company scientists are uniquely positioned to identify unusual clusters of fever because they have years of data for expected flu cases in each ZIP code. A sudden spike that far exceeds estimates for flu for a given date may well indicate the coronavirus has arrived.

Medical experts were enthusiastic about the possibility that smart thermometers could be used to track the virus in the United States. Having millions of data points allows Kinsa to produce daily maps showing which counties are seeing spiking fevers.

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The most common symptoms of infection with the coronavirus is a fever — about 90 percent of patients suffer from it, according to the World Health Organization.

“This is very, very exciting,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University. “This is 21st-century disease surveillance, and we’ve been rooted in the mid-20th century with something very labor intensive.”

Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, said: “If this tells you where there are new major clusters of fever, it tells you where to swoop in with your test kits.”

Kinsa’s latest map of fever spikes shows areas that are known to have many cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But the data also point to spots in Florida, Michigan, Arizona and eastern Texas, where not as many cases have been reported.

Just last Saturday, Kinsa’s data indicated an unusual rise in fevers in South Florida, even though it was not known to be a Covid-19 epicenter. Within days, testing showed that South Florida had indeed become an epicenter.

“We can’t say for sure that these anomalous fever spikes are Covid-19, but we believe this is the earliest signal of where it’s occurring,” Mr. Singh said.

Normally, Mr. Singh said, the company submits its data to peer-reviewed medical journals. But because of the national emergency, it will post its maps and data Friday on medRxiv, an online repository of medical articles.

The latest data will be available on Friday on a new website, www.healthweather.us, he said.

“We’re nervous about putting this out there because we’ve built it so fast,” said Mr. Singh, a former executive at the Clinton Health Access Initiative, which gets medicines to the poor.

Image
This map tracks fever levels thought to be attributable to the flu or similar seasonal illnesses.
This map tracks fever levels thought to be attributable to the flu or similar seasonal illnesses.Credit...Kinsa and Oregon State University
Image
The map above shows clusters of fever that Kinsa’s software suggests are unusual in this year’s flu season.
The map above shows clusters of fever that Kinsa’s software suggests are unusual in this year’s flu season.Credit...Kinsa and Oregon State University
“But we think this could be super helpful even without peer review, and we think there’s a moral imperative to do this right now so everyone can see it and judge it,” Mr. Singh added.

Asked for comment about Kinsa’s proposal, a C.D.C. spokeswoman said the agency “is not working directly with this particular company, but appreciates the efforts of so many private sector companies to address this new threat.”

Dr. Nirav Shah, a former New York State health commissioner who is an adviser to Kinsa, said real-time fever data “could speed up public health the way Twitter sped up the news cycle.”

Demand for Kinsa’s smart thermometers has skyrocketed since the coronavirus pandemic began, Mr. Singh said, and the company is now selling 10,000 a day, which is creating production problems but also multiplying the amount of data coming in each day.

The thermometers connect to a cellphone app that instantly transmits their readings to the company. Users can also enter other symptoms they feel. The app then gives them general advice on when to seek medical attention.

Temperature readings have been far more timely and accurate than other rapid measures, such as cough medicine sales, electronic medical records or Google searches for “flu,” Dr. Shah said.

Because influenza usually produces higher, more protracted fevers than common colds do, the company’s software estimates which ZIP codes appear to be hit by flu rather than by other, milder cold viruses.

For a few months now, Kinsa has worked with Benjamin Dalziel, a disease modeler at Oregon State University who uses electronic medical records, C.D.C.’s influenza surveillance network and other data to map the way the flu season historically rises and falls across the country.

The company’s thermometer readings “are by far the most high-quality data set I’ve ever worked with,” Dr. Dalziel said. “Our results suggest that we can now accurately forecast flu out 12 weeks or more.”

Kinsa’s maps accurately detected this season’s early start in the Deep South and its unusual midwinter double peak, and did so about two weeks before these signs appeared in the C.D.C.’s FluView.

In a conference call with a reporter, Dr. Dalziel and Kinsa’s senior data scientist, Sam Chamberlain, showed twin maps overlaying one another: the first showing where this year’s flu season currently is, and another showing ZIP codes where high fevers are two or three times as common as they ought to be, according to the flu model.

“For a sanity check on our data, we compared this to what happened in Houston back when flu season began,” Dr. Chamberlain said. On that chart, a spike of green data points appears, rising to twice the height recorded in a typical season.

That marked the early, unusual outbreak of B-strain influenza that hit Louisiana and Texas in November.

The current flu season in Brooklyn is waning as winter ends. Beginning on Feb. 24, however, another spike of fevers began to grow out of the downward slope of the normal flu recordings.

“We can't say what that is, but it's very different from what we’d normally expect,” Dr. Chamberlain said.

“This is where the local health department might want to direct its testing,” Dr. Dalziel added.

 

 

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po elvis

po elvis 2070

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

Austin based company Everlywell shipping at home CV19 test kits on Monday:

https://time.com/5805953/home-covid-19-test-everlywell/

They are currently constrained by worldwide shortage of swabs, but US Air Force airlifted 500k swabs from Italy to US yesterday:

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/us-air-force-c-17-moves-500000-swabs-from-italy-to-usa-and-activates-24/7-crisis-battle-staff/137381.article

I'd hate to be the mailman.

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NoName

NoName 16351

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

Austin based company Everlywell shipping at home CV19 test kits on Monday:

https://time.com/5805953/home-covid-19-test-everlywell/

They are currently constrained by worldwide shortage of swabs, but US Air Force airlifted 500k swabs from Italy to US yesterday:

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/us-air-force-c-17-moves-500000-swabs-from-italy-to-usa-and-activates-24/7-crisis-battle-staff/137381.article

nice

Quote

 

If the telemedicine doctor decides to prescribe an Everlywell COVID-19 test, the company says it will send the $135 test kit in two days (customers can pay $30 more to receive the kit overnight). The kit comes with a special swab that is long enough to take samples from the back of the nose and throat area, along with instructions for how to seal the swab sample to send it back to the company. People can also provide both spit and sputum samples as backups. (For now, the Food and Drug Administration only validates samples from nasoparyngeal swabs, but companies have applied to test spit and sputum.).

The sample is sent in a pre-paid overnight package, and processed at one of several labs approved by the FDA to perform the test around the country within 72 hours. As with many of the commercially available tests, this one extracts SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, from the sample and then probes for specific genetic signatures of the virus.

The company says it will then send results by text and email, and doctors may advise people to self-isolate until they receive them. If the test is positive, the company also provides a full telemedicine consultation with one of around 200 physicians that is included in the cost of the test. That physician also reports the result as a positive case to the appropriate state health departments, as is required by health authorities.


Everlywell says it is ready to ship 30,000 COVID-19 tests, and plans to expand the number of labs processing the samples.

 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89666

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Iceman said:

seems like a pretty fucking good trade...

 

Common hydroxychloroquine side effects may include:
  • headache, dizziness, ringing in your ears;
  • nausea, vomiting, stomach pain;
  • loss of appetite, weight loss;
  • mood changes, feeling nervous or irritable;
  • skin rash or itching; or.
  • hair loss.

So the last 10 years of being a Longhorn football fan?

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/17/2020 at 11:35 PM, JBJ said:

3/18 update:

Infectivity: R10 = 0.31, R5 = 0.31.  Was a bad day, and holding steady near 0.30 is bad.

Deaths: M10 = 0.20, M5 = 0.23.  Deaths are showing as increasing, but this might just be noise.

Tomorrow's O/U: 8,531 cases, 138 deaths

3/19 Update:

We overshot cases and deaths for the second day in a row.

10-day Infectivity: 0.33.  5-day: 0.33

Deaths: 10-day: 0.21. 5-day: 0.25

Today's O/U: 24,596 total cases and 199 deaths

 

Some thoughts:

The 0.33 infection rate is the "do nothing" scenario.  As others have pointed out these numbers are reflective of early March moreso than today.  Whether we've had any success culling this thing yet is still unknown.

I don't expect a "Spring Break bump." Until localites get saturated with the virus, the number will continue to grow at this same rate.  As vacationers bring it back home it raises the overall population at risk but not really the rate of infection.  It's still bad.

If we haven't had success slowing this thing, the current hotspots will be saturated with the virus as early as mid-April (rather the next few weeks depending on the lag period).  If it hasn't already happened by then that's when the early reports from hospitals will start to look dire.  Saturated doesn't mean that everyone has the virus - it means enough people have the virus that virus is having trouble spreading to uninfected people.  It's the inflection of the infection. 😏

Deaths are growing slower than cases.  This has been true for all the data, and I am not sure what to make of it.  We are either doing a good job protecting our olds, developing effective cocktails, or they naturally transmit the virus less.  That's not a normal thing, but also not unheard of.  According to some research, H1N1 followed this pattern.  Increased access to testing could also effect this.

Exponential growth is scary: we will have more daily cases starting next Monday than we have total cases today.

Edited by JBJ
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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091

Posted
Posted

From a friend’s Facebook page, a message from their church:


We are aware of the city code in effect for 7 days for public gatherings. Before Sunday, we will have all the chairs spaced accordingly, so that people are spread out in a large room not next to each other, complying with the guidelines set out by the city ordinance. We also are prepared to have an overflow in the other 2 buildings, if necessary & will have the service on the screen in those buildings. These are steps we can take in the natural to help our community & obey the law of the land. Along with doing what we do in the natural, let us not forget our authority in the spirit. We boldly declare, because our trust is in God, no plague shall come near our dwelling. We command this virus, in the name of Jesus, to stay out of our region. We love you and are here for you & look forward to seeing you! God bless you ♥️
 

Where have we seen this strategy before?

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Iceman

Iceman 2710

Posted
Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

We passed up France yesterday.   Spain and Italy are going full-bore thought.   

Yep.  Son is in Spain for the Navy.  Working 2 days per week( rotations) with EXTREME social distancing in their shop.

Confined to quarters, the mess hall, and work.  Said he's playing a metric shit-ton of xbox.  So little has changed( #sarcasm)

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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2183

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

https://fortune.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-hubei-province-no-new-cases/

From the article you posted and where those new cases are coming from:

Indeed, even as Hubei’s numbers have dwindled to zero, China is facing another concern as imported cases continue to add to the country’s tally of infections. The National Health Commission reported 34 new cases for March 18, all of them patients who brought the disease from other countries.
 

the point is that if China and South Korea are unable to deal with people bringing it back in, that means the whole world will have to essentially go under the same quarantine rules to get back to “normal.”

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NoName

NoName 16351

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Casual Encounter said:

From a friend’s Facebook page, a message from their church:


We are aware of the city code in effect for 7 days for public gatherings. Before Sunday, we will have all the chairs spaced accordingly, so that people are spread out in a large room not next to each other, complying with the guidelines set out by the city ordinance. We also are prepared to have an overflow in the other 2 buildings, if necessary & will have the service on the screen in those buildings. These are steps we can take in the natural to help our community & obey the law of the land. Along with doing what we do in the natural, let us not forget our authority in the spirit. We boldly declare, because our trust is in God, no plague shall come near our dwelling. We command this virus, in the name of Jesus, to stay out of our region. We love you and are here for you & look forward to seeing you! God bless you ♥️
 

Where have we seen this strategy before?

interesting move, our has gone the exact opposite way - cancelled last Saturday before Sunday service, cancelled for at LEAST the next 2 Sundays (to be reviewed the last week in March) and I expect it to continue. 

 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NoName said:

interesting move, our has gone the exact opposite way - cancelled last Saturday before Sunday service, cancelled for at LEAST the next 2 Sundays (to be reviewed the last week in March) and I expect it to continue. 

Blessed are the non-stupid.

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Iceman

Iceman 2710

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NoName said:

interesting move, our has gone the exact opposite way - cancelled last Saturday before Sunday service, cancelled for at LEAST the next 2 Sundays (to be reviewed the last week in March) and I expect it to continue. 

 

This.  Hearing of multiple congregations complying and either completely cancelling or doing online service that folks can watch from home.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This is sad.

 

Apart from the tragedy that it is, it raises questions about genetic predisposition to complications, something like a well above average expression of ACE2 receptors or something else we have yet to even recognize.

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6th Street

6th Street 6400

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Penelope said:

This was one of my friends on Facebook TODAY! #thankyoucorona for actually getting people to be clean. #yourfuckingstupid for acting like ants when it’s not that bad. Damn the flu kills more than this “pandemic” virus
I commented with “you’re a fucking idiot” and then de friended him
 

Next move would be to deactivate that Facebook account altogether. It's the Dollar General of social media.

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Read that.  The two kids were in their 50's and had no underlying conditions.  Shit.

You can see the underlying conditions in the photo.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

You can see the underlying conditions in the photo.

Yea, as a 50 year old man this is making me take losing a few pounds much more seriously. Blood pressure is great, no asthma or beedus, but I'm probably 30 lbs over weight. I've been working out and eating better since this all kicked off. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

the point is that if China and South Korea are unable to deal with people bringing it back in, that means the whole world will have to essentially go under the same quarantine rules to get back to “normal.”

I saw where Taiwan has implemented a 14 day quarantine for all people arriving from abroad.  China is doing a lot of 14 day quarantines but I guess not everywhere for everyone.

what I see (and hope) happens is that meds like chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine prove effective as prophylaxis or with early intervention after early detection.  The key will be immediate mass availability of covid testing and production of effective meds.  Positive tests should warrant immediately starting the med and contacts should be considered for prophylaxis.  
 

long term quarantine ultimately won’t work.  Nature always finds a way.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11964

Posted
Posted
Just now, PittsburghTiger said:

Hopefully this is accurate. The guy is affiliated with Stanford so hopefully this is legit.

 
IDK. He consults for Stanford. Big difference.

1.) He’s on Fox News. 
2.) He’s not a doctor but seems a little like he stayed at a Holiday Inn last night....

3.) His LinkedIn sounds very / feels a little grifty.

http://linkedin.com/in/gregory-rigano-esq-202465113

 

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ABSR

ABSR 5312

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That's all part of the "real GF" experience package apparently.

I thought giving them money and paying for everything, but them not having sex with you, was the "real wife" experience?

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Texas_Rocks

Texas_Rocks 346

Posted
Posted

I took a break from Chinese Sate Sanctioned Virus news for couple of day.

Question: What’s going on with Coumo? Has he been named the official spokesman for this issue in general. I haven’t been able to get this guy off of any of the news networks for two days it seems like. Every time I tune in for info, it just this guy rambling on and on.

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4398

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Apart from the tragedy that it is, it raises questions about genetic predisposition to complications, something like a well above average expression of ACE2 receptors or something else we have yet to even recognize.

Need to publish BMI data on victims?

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 
IDK. He consults for Stanford. Big difference.

1.) He’s on Fox News. 
2.) He’s not a doctor but seems a little like he stayed at a Holiday Inn last night....

3.) His LinkedIn sounds very / feels a little grifty.

http://linkedin.com/in/gregory-rigano-esq-202465113

 

Seriously,  his profile mentions blockchain. Run away. 

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