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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Dear Mark, stop eating shit in China. I kid, I kid. T&P to Mark. 

Better yet, stop vacationing in Thailand.  

Quote

Sparks says he travels to Thailand every January and doesn't plan to stop. "I'm gonna plan another trip for next January. I'm not gonna stop traveling, theres no better education in the world to me than travel. ", he said. 

 

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10439

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1 hour ago, YChang said:

Yes there are biases still with peer reviewed research but seriously?

Peer reviewed is generally better, but should not blindly be taken as gospel. A lot of bad research that can be reproduced has been published in good journal. You're right that you should definitely question why this manuscript was not peer reviewed? I have not finished reading the manuscript, but I am starting to scratch my head about it.

For something that is breaking, why couldn't these folks send it out to a PubMed indexed journal as a letter to the editor type set up if they were rushing to be the first ones? Given the impact of coronavirus, you would think journals like Nature, Cell, or Lancet would be willing to move their manuscript to the top of the pile for review.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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30 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Got it from sveriges radio but their story links/references: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.926477v1.full.pdf

Nature had an article about a Corona virus from pangolins that sounded like a closer match than what these guys are assuming. The Nature article said they were investigating the possibility of a direct jump from pangolins to human. That fits the wet market timeline better.

As for temperatures, Dr. John Campbell (YouTube) cited a study of SARS-like coronavirus that found they survived 5 to 28 days on stainless steel The longest was at 4C and 20% humidity, but they do well at 80% humidity and warmer temperatures. He said they still survive a week at 30C and high humidity. They start to die quicker at 40C, which is not surprising since patients with fevers above 39 usually start getting better in a few days.

As for Duterte he already made a statement that he will use the military to enforce quarantines. I will stock up on food, water, and other supplies again today.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1626

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To reiterate a statement from above. Peer Reviews don't mean shit.

 

What do peer reviewers do?  Mostly they ask themselves: 

A) Does this paper seem plausible?

B) Does this paper use the right terminology?

C) Does this paper agree with my biases?  

That's basically it.  Peer Reviewers do NOT reproduce the work and they almost never check the math.

Does the peer review process filter off completely bogus papers. Yes.      Does it filter off bad science?  No.   Does it give an indication of the correctness of accepted papers? No.

 

 

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17780

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7 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Nature had an article about a Corona virus from pangolins that sounded like a closer match than what these guys are assuming. The Nature article said they were investigating the possibility of a direct jump from pangolins to human. That fits the wet market timeline better.

As for temperatures, Dr. John Campbell (YouTube) cited a study of SARS-like coronavirus that found they survived 5 to 28 days on stainless steel The longest was at 4C and 20% humidity, but they do well at 80% humidity and warmer temperatures. He said they still survive a week at 30C and high humidity. They start to die quicker at 40C, which is not surprising since patients with fevers above 39 usually start getting better in a few days.

As for Duterte he already made a statement that he will use the military to enforce quarantines. I will stock up on food, water, and other supplies again today.

28 days is a long ass time.  Influenza is what, 24-48 hours?

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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8 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Nature had an article about a Corona virus from pangolins that sounded like a closer match than what these guys are assuming. The Nature article said they were investigating the possibility of a direct jump from pangolins to human. That fits the wet market timeline better.

As for temperatures, Dr. John Campbell (YouTube) cited a study of SARS-like coronavirus that found they survived 5 to 28 days on stainless steel The longest was at 4C and 20% humidity, but they do well at 80% humidity and warmer temperatures. He said they still survive a week at 30C and high humidity. They start to die quicker at 40C, which is not surprising since patients with fevers above 39 usually start getting better in a few days.

As for Duterte he already made a statement that he will use the military to enforce quarantines. I will stock up on food, water, and other supplies again today.

Shouldn't someone be able to replicate for THIS specific virus in a lab by now?  I wouldn't necessarily expect the general public to know the results but surely someone at the CDC has taken samples and is determining survival under various conditions

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

28 days is a long ass time.  Influenza is what, 24-48 hours?

Yes it is, which is why he was so concerned. And Dr. Campbell said the paper claimed 5 to 28 days was conservative and it could be longer. Now that the Chinese have said there is aerosol transmission on top of that it may infect everyone in China who is not isolated. 

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17780

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8 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Yes it is, which is why he was so concerned. Now that the Chinese have said there is aerosol transmission on top of that it may infect everyone in China who is not isolated. 

Would also point that without mass cleaning/sanitization that the 14 day quarantine won't matter.  People will just start getting it again once they start going back in public again.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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12 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Would also point that without mass cleaning/sanitization that the 14 day quarantine won't matter.  People will just start getting it again once they start going back in public again.

That, and in one case study a person was released from the hospital on day 14 but did not test free of infection until day 26. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Just read that 59 people have flu-like symptoms among contacts of the three known positive cases in the Philippines. It seems unlikely that all of them are free from COVID-19. Of the 408 people they have under observation 208 have tested negative and they are waiting for results on the other 200.

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Spartan52

Spartan52 151

Posted
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2 hours ago, Skipper said:

Shouldn't someone be able to replicate for THIS specific virus in a lab by now?  I wouldn't necessarily expect the general public to know the results but surely someone at the CDC has taken samples and is determining survival under various conditions

Mate I'm not 100% but I heard that the CSIRO here in Australia were the first to replicate the virus outside of China for research purposes, apparently the Chinese haven't been making it available to other labs for vaccination development, not sure if this is still the case. I also heard that the earliest timeline for a vacc is 18 months....

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1626

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How has Africa been skipped by this thing? There's something like a million Chinese in Africa building massive infrastructure projects. Are they all poor Chinese workers who didn't get to go home for Christmas/New Years?  When this story broke, I guessed that they'd get hit early and hard due to their limited ability to contain and treat.

 

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Parliament

Parliament 14133

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

How has Africa been skipped by this thing? There's something like a million Chinese in Africa building massive infrastructure projects. Are they all poor Chinese workers who didn't get to go home for Christmas/New Years?  When this story broke, I guessed that they'd get hit early and hard due to their limited ability to contain and treat.

 

Uh...the don't celebrate Christmas at all, and their New Year starts in late January.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25507

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4 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

How has Africa been skipped by this thing? There's something like a million Chinese in Africa building massive infrastructure projects. Are they all poor Chinese workers who didn't get to go home for Christmas/New Years?  When this story broke, I guessed that they'd get hit early and hard due to their limited ability to contain and treat.

 

probably yes. they don't go home. A lot of the labor is convict labor. In Dubai when they were building the palms the Chinese labor was kept on converted cruise ships with only a few allowed into the city on Fridays to do some shopping. And always with a minder or two. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

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CDC official says we should be prepared for it to take hold

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html


LA County monitoring 1,000 folks

https://abc7.com/5924517/

Buncha tests are flawed

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html?referringSource=articleShare

That ship is fucked

 

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ButtFumble

ButtFumble 5158

Posted
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1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

How has Africa been skipped by this thing? There's something like a million Chinese in Africa building massive infrastructure projects. Are they all poor Chinese workers who didn't get to go home for Christmas/New Years?  When this story broke, I guessed that they'd get hit early and hard due to their limited ability to contain and treat.

 

I am surprised by Africa not really showing much as well, but perhaps the heat and humidity (at least in the port areas of the continent) has something to do with it

it is also a relatively difficult place to travel to outside of a few countries and major cities

and yes the Chinese there come, stay to themselves, work (or threaten others to work), and do not return home for very long periods of time

if they do start to get it there it could be a disaster though....I am surprised some of their countries have not cut off Chinese travel, but then again a lot of them doing major business with China have "leaders" that do not really give a shit about much of their population and would probably see an overall benefit to their country if they lost a large portion of their most vulnerable population

if there is some genetic predisposition to getting the disease then you have to wonder if Africans are predisposed to not getting it or because of their own hygiene issues and sometimes "non standard" diets if they have some resistance to it...or perhaps some of the Chinese working there have built up some resistance

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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https://www.wltx.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-san-diego/509-e18e37f6-347c-4b08-ad33-910968abb04f?fbclid=IwAR1qHLVtH34lsxaDEb3tc9zxWxU38RWdtprlt6W1DiaRi7Ob-MunpKxpXqU

Quote

San Diego lab discovers COVID-19 vaccine in 3 hours

Inovio Pharmaceuticals created a vaccine that is going through pre-clinical trials.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

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1 hour ago, Colonel Sanders said:

I don't think anyone is really going back to work from what I saw on BBC this morning.   Seemed more like PR to keep investors happy. At least some of those that did are in quarantine at work now, so maybe the few that went in call in sick tomorrow. 

A bunch of these companies have some of their workers in a mandatory 14-day quarantines in their barracks/dorms before they are able to go back to work.  The companies also have to have X amount of masks per workers, per days.  So there ain't shit happening for a while.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Great news. So if they are getting the spread under control per the central government's decision to go back to normal work why are so many other localities doing things like this? 

Holy shit, that government press release sounds kinda bad.

  • The district of Zhangwan in Shiyan city, Hubei province will be applying martial law measures for at least the next 14 days.
  • All residential buildings will be enclosed and no civilians will be permitted to leave their residence.
  • All vehicles except medical, police, firefighting, rescue, cargo and the ones owned by governmental officials and medical personnel will not be allowed on the road.
  • Anyone attempting to leave their residence will be arrested.
  • Basic living needs, such as food, will be rationed and delivered to residents by the local government.
  • This will take effect on February 12 at 24:00 local time, and will be in effect for a minimum of 14 days. The period of control can be extended if the situation continue to develop.
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