Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

37 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Its more than worldwide supply.  But I'd say that if we ramped up it's far from crazy to think this country could produced 500k in a month.  

Look- it’s simply a matter of time before this happens. Making a ventilator cannot be all that complicated. If it’s all hands on deck I can’t imagine this isn't solvable by American industrial might in a short manner of time. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

Are the expecting California to be a helluva lot worse than we think, if they are getting the hospital ship and other stuff?   I mean, we know it’s bad, but it sounds like it’s going to be really bad.   Would explain the shelter in place.   

[dcar00 14181]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep it’s good but not as good as my wet dream that it was vents.  

might help curb the stupid black market pricing on them as well.

[Shaddie 1651]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Where are the basic components and circuit boards normally made?

Most likely “assembled” here. 70% Individual components most likely Asia. 

[AngryDragon 270]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

1234.   This thing could be torpedoed because of that.  They should have done the payments to Americans/families as its own little bill instead of tying it to all of this other stuff.  

Also, they need to clarify to Americans if this is from this year’s (2020j taxes - I’ve seen them taking about this basically being an advanced tax refund (reducing your refund next year) or being counted against next year’s taxes.   So it doesn’t sound like it’s free money like some are claiming.   But again, a lot of stuff is being tossed out by Mnuchin, Mitchell. Etc. and no clear idea on where it’s coming from.   

The bill in current form has absolutely no business being passed. You're right about it being it's own little bill but that would require people in DC to do the right thing.

[Bevo 13576]

59 minutes ago, PRONG HORN said:

 

 

Her lungs seem healthy.

[JOSEYWALES66 1801]

Just now, Bevo said:

 

 

Her lungs seem healthy.

I think I should check her chest out just to be sure. 

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look- it’s simply a matter of time before this happens. Making a ventilator cannot be all that complicated. If it’s all hands on deck I can’t imagine this isn't solvable by American industrial might in a short manner of time. 

some things they can do is remove the need for anything but basic testing, non essential metal/plastic shroud parts, no UL, etc. 

I can tell you that getting 10's of thousands of PCB's built can't be done overnight but the US Govt should get all available US based PCB mfgs the prints to do this.

[dcbc 14477]

Friend of my wife has a niece who tested positive.  She is critical and on an ventilator.  She is 13. 

Another friend of ours, who has a daughter my son's age is very ill right now (CV19 symptoms), but has been told she cannot be tested until tomorrow or Tuesday at the earliest.  This looks like it will be the week when a lot more people start to get sick.

[dcar00 14181]

7 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

Most likely “assembled” here. 70% Individual components most likely Asia. 

the PCB with the components is many times done in Asia at a contract manufacturere.  just depends on the specific vent mfg.  Sometimes Mexico.

some companies prototype stateside so you can get those companies the latest prints and BOM and then have the US Govt intercede in the supply chain for priority.

[tx 3 putt 76927]

Just now, dcbc said:

Friend of my wife has a niece who tested positive.  She is critical and on an ventilator.  She is 13. 

Another friend of ours, who has a daughter my son's age is very ill right now (CV19 symptoms), but has been told she cannot be tested until tomorrow or Tuesday at the earliest.  This looks like it will be the week when a lot more people start to get sick.

Damn, prayers and positive thoughts for them. Hearing they went to ventilator scares me 

[dcbc 14477]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

Damn, prayers and positive thoughts for them. Hearing they went to ventilator scares me 

Thanks.  Yeah, it's terrible.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

8 minutes ago, AngryDragon said:

The bill in current form has absolutely no business being passed. You're right about it being it's own little bill but that would require people in DC to do the right thing.

Not happening today

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-struggles-to-reach-a-deal.html

Currently, it would be a credit against your future taxes, but that could easily change

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/heres-how-your-rescue-check-from-the-government-could-be-taxed.html

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

some things they can do is remove the need for anything but basic testing, non essential metal/plastic shroud parts, no UL, etc. 

I can tell you that getting 10's of thousands of PCB's built can't be done overnight but the US Govt should get all available US based PCB mfgs the prints to do this.

This is pretty much my point- we need schematics but once you open source that and let people at it I can’t imagine this isn’t taken care of in short order. Give whoever has the schematics (sounds like meditronics) a royalty or licensing on every unit built by someone other than them and let’s roll. 

Im not saying it’s easy, I’m saying it’s not splitting the atom hard and I trust the industrial might, technical know how and general ingenuity of America. 

[B00M 6415]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Isn’t it already? NY residents can’t really go anywhere or do anything unless they’re deemed “essential”. They have a high list of infections. If you mean in terms of dead people, I assume the reason we’re all isolating ourselves and ducking for cover is because we realize death is a real risk here, and we’d all like to avoid it for the time being. 

If you mean the “we’re Italy in two weeks!” stuff, the point of contention when that was being discussed here was that we already were in that range in different places, and claiming a chart overlay was silly. We identified sick patients before Italy and people have been walking around with it for weeks/months. 

Also, I have more faith in America and our doctors and scientists and other factors about our demographics to believe that all other things equal, we’re not any better prepared than Italy. I know thinking that is borderline heresy on this thread, but I’ll live with the Surly doomsdayer gloating if they’re incinerating bodies en masse in NY in a few weeks. 

So you must disagree with this guy's assumptions, projections and conclusions? He's the single best source for info I've seen. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

 

[Hanrahan 1306]

This is pretty much my point- we need schematics but once you open source that and let people at it I can’t imagine this isn’t taken care of in short order. Give whoever has the schematics (sounds like meditronics) a royalty or licensing on every unit built by someone other than them and let’s roll. 
Im not saying it’s easy, I’m saying it’s not splitting the atom hard and I trust the industrial might, technical know how and general ingenuity of America. 

The government can just “take” the schematics and distribute them as it sees fit. That would be a constitutional violation, and Medtronic would be entitled to just compensation, but the government can and does seize private property all the time.

[AngryDragon 270]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not happening today

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-stimulus-congress-struggles-to-reach-a-deal.html

Currently, it would be a credit against your future taxes, but that could easily change

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/heres-how-your-rescue-check-from-the-government-could-be-taxed.html

 

It'd be awesome to have some decency but that seems to be in as rare as ventilators.

[Redmen62 126]

56 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Nope, not for us, we had to go through a source in the Dubai who uses the 3M plant in Austria.  But this is not atypical as the usual supply chains are completely broken down.  But NW and BSW both ordered more than a million total masks for a few million dollars. 

I read an article yesterday saying that the US was going to need more than a billion (with a B) masks over the next few months...

[dcbc 14477]

57 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Its more than worldwide supply.  But I'd say that if we ramped up it's far from crazy to think this country could produced 500k in a month.  

Need to start cranking out what we need like they were Sherman Tanks.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

So the feds are looking at releasing elderly non-violent prisoners.  Not that prisons aren’t going to be covid hotbeds, but moving them around will expose them as well.  

Edited March 22, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[clapclapclap 9000]

4 hours ago, Loco said:

x, x, 1, 2

[Beau Vine 54215]

 

[dcar00 14181]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

This is pretty much my point- we need schematics but once you open source that and let people at it I can’t imagine this isn’t taken care of in short order. Give whoever has the schematics (sounds like meditronics) a royalty or licensing on every unit built by someone other than them and let’s roll. 

Im not saying it’s easy, I’m saying it’s not splitting the atom hard and I trust the industrial might, technical know how and general ingenuity of America. 

my guess is all this is being done but nothing is fast enough in this situation.  One sole source component semiconductor can hold up the whole thing and these guys might build 3K or 4K a year , now they need 40K asap(just a guess as to potential short term vent rate) .  If there are older sole source specific components(think main microcontroller/processor) the supply chain might not be there. 

good news bad news is that in an emergency you can go from wafer to parts in about 8 weeks and if you have some wafers staged you can lower that to 4 or 5.

crossing my fingers.

[F250 28770]

3 hours ago, TornACL said:

For any supply chain guy, the idea of turning all fifty states loose on the market to try to find supplies on their own, and in turn competing with each other is utter madness. 

All 50 states should form a governing board and vote for an executive leader so that decisions can be made under a federated organization for the benefit of all States.

 

[Shaddie 1651]

13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the PCB with the components is many times done in Asia at a contract manufacturere.  just depends on the specific vent mfg.  Sometimes Mexico.

some companies prototype stateside so you can get those companies the latest prints and BOM and then have the US Govt intercede in the supply chain for priority.

Usually small volume medical is done in states at certified sites for board assembly. I visit these places every week. Still doesn’t mean much if you can’t get individual components. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

9 minutes ago, Hanrahan said:

 

The government can just “take” the schematics and distribute them as it sees fit. That would be a constitutional violation, and Medtronic would be entitled to just compensation, but the government can and does seize private property all the time.

 

If this is as bad as it looks like something tells me nobody is granting an injunction against this or sowing it down. Do it and figure out the money later. That’s all it is. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are the expecting California to be a helluva lot worse than we think, if they are getting the hospital ship and other stuff?   I mean, we know it’s bad, but it sounds like it’s going to be really bad.   Would explain the shelter in place.   

It was requested by Newsome to park in the Port of Los Angeles. He's trying like hell to prepare. 

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

We wont be able to ramp up ventilator manufacturing to meet the need in roughly... eh... 3 weeks. It would take an act of God to meet the need were are likely going to be looking at

 

we would have to produce and distribute almost a quarter of a million ventilators in 20 days (if numbers/curves dont decrease, we’ll need more). Dont wanna be a debbie downer, but that isnt happening

[Apep 645]

Tarrant County is currently having an emergency meeting to discuss shelter in place.

[dcar00 14181]

4 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

Usually small volume medical is done in states at certified sites for board assembly. I visit these places every week. Still doesn’t mean much if you can’t get individual components. 

agree.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

4 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

Usually small volume medical is done in states at certified sites for board assembly. I visit these places every week. Still doesn’t mean much if you can’t get individual components. 

Sure. When I said turn over the schematics on the vents I literally meant their manufacture and all the component parts in the process. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

3 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

I took it the other way, he pretty much just gave the go ahead for the big cities to be shut down soon. 

And the small cities/counties can just keep fucking around, with the expectation that the big city medical centers will bail their asses out.   And those little cities/counties will fuck over the rest of us.  

[Lhorn 4913]

With regards to the need for PCB, where are you maker/arduino nerds? We need you now.
I’m very interested to see what manufacturers come up with for ventilators. I imagine the best strategy would be for very strip down simple machine. Adjustable oxygen concentration, adjustable rate, adjustable tidal volume. No fancy modes. When the patient is ready to wean, they can be switched to a more sophisticated machine capable weaning modes.

[Zonahorn 8079]

3 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We wont be able to ramp up ventilator manufacturing to meet the need in roughly... eh... 3 weeks. It would take an act of God to meet the need were are likely going to be looking at

 

we would have to produce and distribute almost a quarter of a million ventilators in 20 days (if numbers/curves dont decrease, we’ll need more). Dont wanna be a debbie downer, but that isnt happening

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We wont be able to ramp up ventilator manufacturing to meet the need in roughly... eh... 3 weeks. It would take an act of God to meet the need were are likely going to be looking at

 

we would have to produce and distribute almost a quarter of a million ventilators in 20 days (if numbers/curves dont decrease, we’ll need more). Dont wanna be a debbie downer, but that isnt happening

I'm not sure we need 250K ventillators.  a much lower percentage than the overall positive test rate.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We wont be able to ramp up ventilator manufacturing to meet the need in roughly... eh... 3 weeks. It would take an act of God to meet the need were are likely going to be looking at

 

we would have to produce and distribute almost a quarter of a million ventilators in 20 days (if numbers/curves dont decrease, we’ll need more). Dont wanna be a debbie downer, but that isnt happening

I don’t think anyone is saying it’d be ready in 3 weeks, but my guess is 3 months might be possible. If this thing is around for a while the best time to start would be today. I imagine this is in the works and has been for a while. 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Sbbruin 21847]

33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are the expecting California to be a helluva lot worse than we think, if they are getting the hospital ship and other stuff?   I mean, we know it’s bad, but it sounds like it’s going to be really bad.   Would explain the shelter in place.   

Yes, I think we’re expecting a pretty rapid explosion

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

9 minutes ago, F250 said:

All 50 states should form a governing board and vote for an executive leader so that decisions can be made under a federated organization for the benefit of all States.

 

Seems like the should be happening at the federal level....... already I might add.

[Sbbruin 21847]

5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dont wanna be a debbie downer...

That ship sailed long ago.

[Apep 645]

Here is a good discussion of using CPAPs for less severe cases of ARD, a topic which I touched on last week.

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

In don’t think anyone is saying it’d be ready in 3 weeks, but my guess is 3 months might be possible. If this thing is around for a while the best time to start would be today. I imagine this is in the works and has been for a while. 

yes I'm sure it has been.

[Hanrahan 1306]

If this is as bad as it looks like something tells me nobody is granting an injunction against this or sowing it down. Do it and figure out the money later. That’s all it is. 

I’m on the bad side of TROs regularly because the judge ain’t going to be the guy or gal that denied the relief - even when there is zero legal basis for the order. I can’t fathom of the judge who would protect Medtronic’s property interest at the expense of lives in a pandemic.

[Hanrahan 1306]

We wont be able to ramp up ventilator manufacturing to meet the need in roughly... eh... 3 weeks. It would take an act of God to meet the need were are likely going to be looking at
 
we would have to produce and distribute almost a quarter of a million ventilators in 20 days (if numbers/curves dont decrease, we’ll need more). Dont wanna be a debbie downer, but that isnt happening

Think your assumptions and math are both off here, Chief.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That ship sailed long ago.

And I believe it sunk.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 minute ago, Hanrahan said:

I’m on the bad side of TROs regularly because the judge ain’t going to be the guy or gal that denied the relief - even when there is zero legal basis for the order. I can’t fathom of the judge who would protect Medtronic’s property interest at the expense of lives in a pandemic.

That’s my read on how this would go down too. It’s got to be throttled open. This isn’t really an important issue involving weighty matters, it’s literally just a question of money. They can/will be made whole afterwards. 

[Beau Vine 54215]

I'm so bored I just read a Canadian Football League mock draft: https://3downnation.com/2020/03/19/john-hodges-2020-cfl-mock-draft-1-0/

[TornACL 7698]

10 minutes ago, Apep said:

Tarrant County is currently having an emergency meeting to discuss shelter in place.

From what I am reading on the twitters, shelter in place isn't up for a vote tonight. 

[Apep 645]

It may not be up for a vote, but I just saw them discussing it and taking public comments. We're probably still a day or two behind Dallas.

[Homercles 10205]

7 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

And I believe it sunk.

[Shaddie 1651]

5 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm so bored I just read a Canadian Football League mock draft: https://3downnation.com/2020/03/19/john-hodges-2020-cfl-mock-draft-1-0/

Obviously on a ventilator to be that bored.