Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14995]

2 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

 

 

Yep. Those numbers are nuts. There are 28 million or so in Texas. 2% of the population is going to die? Not just 2% of the positive testing people, or 2% of the infected people, but 2% of everyone dies? Nope.

 

 

while things can certainly change for the worse, currently the largest outbreak in the US is in NYC and the mortality rate is .7%(and yes I understand about undertesting at this point)

I think there was a site showing about 13% positive test rate(even though they also admitted that many states didn't report all their negative tests, which would make the percentage lower)

if you took this number as it shows now as the percentage and applied it to everyone in the US we are talking about 40-45Million being positive. 60 Million contracted swine as a ref point.  yes there are a lot of people walking around with CV19 without showing signs and aren't likley to be tested.

these numbers are early but my overall feeling is they should go down(get better) and not up.  this is not a don't worry about it do whatever you want post

people should be careful, quarantine, follow guidelines, limit contact, etc.

[AngryDragon 273]

3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I dont think we have seen anywhere that once you "get" Covid you are then immune to it afterwards.    your post assumes that. and its not a good assumption at this time. 

This is definitely not true. People have gotten reinfected at a rate of something like 14% in China from data in late Feb. 

[2300 Nueces 163]

15 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Wow.  Good luck. I got some of the stuff you recommended upstream in this thread but I am not infected AFIAK and am wondering if I should hold off until I am.  Seems like a lot of stuff that is being tested to help (ARBs, etc) might also make it easier to get. Also a little scared to take these things I know nothing about regarding side effects, etc. 

I tried small amounts to make sure that I wasn't allergic.  I had the stuff for 2 weeks before I caught it.  I knew there was no way we were going to stop it from spreading.  The studies I posted were from doctors in HK.  If it was from some mommy website screaming about gluten and vaccines, well hard pass.  The scoffers haven't read the study or don't understand it.

[akhornfan 4]

7 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

if not, then CTJs last post smells of BS and fraudulent claims in honorary of best post on the internets

I mean nueces ‘we’re all infected but none tested’

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19327]

This is definitely not true. People have gotten reinfected at a rate of something like 14% in China from data in late Feb. 

Show your work.

[Tailgate 3081]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

"What we need is to control the panic," he said. In the grand scheme, "we're going to be fine."

[Hmmm 155]

4 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

I tried small amounts to make sure that I wasn't allergic.  I had the stuff for 2 weeks before I caught it.  I knew there was no way we were going to stop it from spreading.  The studies I posted were from doctors in HK.  If it was from some mommy website screaming about gluten and vaccines, well hard pass.  The scoffers haven't read the study or don't understand it.

wait, what?  help me make the connection between studies from doctors in HK and mommy websites, to your hard pass, and your posting scientific "evidence".

Edited March 23, 2020 by Hmmm

[UTGrad98 2343]

10 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

In Ft Worth tests are only available to the people at risk and first responders.  Regardless, the sick here are plotted all over the Tarrant Co map....  It's spreading.  I had Flu A six weeks ago for sure.  It's the only thing possible that met the symptoms.  My brother had the squirts for 3 days and then went into major shutdown.  Extreme fatigue.  We hung out on a Saturday which was his day 1 of symptoms.  Major squirts.  Downhill from there.  Mine kicked on Tuesday, 3 days.  When you get it and have symptoms, you won't need a test to confirm.

I will say this.  If you are youngish and healthy, don't fear it.  Herd immunity is real and by having immunity, you protect the vulnerable by killing it via your immunity and not passing it on.  It's going to be a long road. 

Isatis Extract

It's real.  Nothing could stink that bad and not be crap.  It's also Chinese so I don't own it.

No THIS is the greatest post in the history of surly.  So you never actually have been tested?

[2300 Nueces 163]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I mean nueces ‘we’re all infected but none tested’

If your not sleeping for 12+ hours a day, you don't have it yet.  It's the fatigue that is the tell.

[Hmmm 155]

hmmm

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, 2300 Nueces said:

If your not sleeping for 12+ hours a day, you don't have it yet.  It's the fatigue that is the tell.

[stone oak 639]

6 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

"What we need is to control the panic," he said. In the grand scheme, "we're going to be fine."

So, not ballgame?

[2300 Nueces 163]

1 minute ago, UTGrad98 said:

No THIS is the greatest post in the history of surly.  So you never actually have been tested?

Tests aren't available.  It's not like having a rash.  It will knock you down.  The fatigue is hard to describe.  If tests were available and I have a horrible headache and am extremely tired, I'm not waiting in line all day.  I can't make you believe me, just trying to help.

[dcar00 14995]

7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

Show your work.

 

more China "data"

[dcar00 14995]

Just now, 2300 Nueces said:

Tests aren't available.  It's not like having a rash.  It will knock you down.  The fatigue is hard to describe.  If tests were available and I have a horrible headache and am extremely tired, I'm not waiting in line all day.  I can't make you believe me, just trying to help.

all you had to say was you might have it.  BTW, there is a thread for possibly havin' the corona already.  you can help there.

[Hmmm 155]

3 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Tests aren't available.  It's not like having a rash.  It will knock you down.  The fatigue is hard to describe.  If tests were available and I have a horrible headache and am extremely tired, I'm not waiting in line all day.  I can't make you believe me, just trying to help.

It doesn't help when CTJ, insincerely,  sides with you as best post on the interenetz.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Hmmm

[2300 Nueces 163]

Just now, dcar00 said:

all you had to say was you might have it.  BTW, there is a thread for possibly havin' the corona already.  you can help there.

Updating info from previous posts on this thread.

[2300 Nueces 163]

24 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

...

If you can find myricetin, do it.  It was on my list from above post more than 10 days ago.  It's not to be found.  The Isatis is available because it's Chinese.

Edited March 23, 2020 by 2300 Nueces

[AngryDragon 273]

18 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

Show your work.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

This was the article from late Feb. 

Edited because that 14% number came from a specific province. Not all of China.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by AngryDragon

[triplehorn 2664]

20 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

"What we need is to control the panic," he said. In the grand scheme, "we're going to be fine."

And 80% reduction in social contacts is all it takes.  Total lockdown not needed.  Awareness and following through with the contact reductions causes R naught (R0) to fall to less than 1.  At R0 <1, the virus stalls out within weeks without a vaccine or other cure.  Shutting down schools for kiddos will end up having been a huge positive.  Huge.  Universities across the country also really carried the torch relatively early on by finding alternatives to packing lecture halls.

Edited March 23, 2020 by triplehorn
^ my sig

[2300 Nueces 163]

13 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032839/table/T1/?report=objectonly

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16115693

Let's hope you don't need any of this.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by 2300 Nueces

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, AngryDragon said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

This was the article from late Feb. 

 

You’re posting from 3 weeks ago in an emerging situation?

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, 2300 Nueces said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032839/table/T1/?report=objectonly

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16115693

 

Links don’t equal you have it. 

[AngryDragon 273]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

You’re posting from 3 weeks ago in an emerging situation?

No...someone asked me where I got that number from. I read it in late Feb and was just pointing out the article. 

[tx 3 putt 78744]

1 hour ago, 2300 Nueces said:

I have it.  I caught it from my brother who has it. His wife has it.  My whole family has it.  It has the potential to be nasty.  I have 2 kids who have had no symptoms and 2 that have had relatively mild symptoms.  My brother (46 and his wife 42) have been hit rather hard.  They are heavy drinkers and she is a smoker.  I still have symptoms on day 6 but they are mild.  I started with pain in my neck (lymph nodes) that shot to my head and became a nasty headache.  I have not taken any advil or pain killers.  I had no fever.  No squirts.  I have had neck pain, headache, fatigue, cough and some breathing issues.  Tonight is day 6 for me and I am feeling better.  I had to drive 1.5 hours to get my brother some of the items i posted up thread.  He and his wife were on day 9 and were not recovering *danger zone*.  No one wanted to go help but knowing I caught it from him, I decided to try.  i gave them the myricetin, isatis root extract, and buplerum root extract(helicase, protease inhibitors).  She barfed it all up initially.  Once she got a smaller amount down, she passed out.  I wouldn't say either is in good health.  Today, I received a text that she felt 100% better.  He was the same.  I do not sell any of this stuff.  I gleaned the info from the national health library archives.  Myricetin is not attainable at this point but the isatis root extract is and mega doses are out there for cheap. 

 

Some other things that help.  My wife, and 2 non symptom children are in great physical health.  They are swimmers and my wife is a dietician, BS in nutrition from aggy.  I am almost 50 so I am no spring chicken but do consume a lot of fruits and vegetables, hit them hard.  Stay away from processed sugar.  Processed sugar kills the immune system.

hang in there !!!!!!

[2300 Nueces 163]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Links don’t equal you have it. 

Ok, no biggie.  I'm out.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

while things can certainly change for the worse, currently the largest outbreak in the US is in NYC and the mortality rate is .7%(and yes I understand about undertesting at this point)
I think there was a site showing about 13% positive test rate(even though they also admitted that many states didn't report all their negative tests, which would make the percentage lower)
if you took this number as it shows now as the percentage and applied it to everyone in the US we are talking about 40-45Million being positive. 60 Million contracted swine as a ref point.  yes there are a lot of people walking around with CV19 without showing signs and aren't likley to be tested.
these numbers are early but my overall feeling is they should go down(get better) and not up.  this is not a don't worry about it do whatever you want post
people should be careful, quarantine, follow guidelines, limit contact, etc.

I read on reddit that New Jersey is pumping out 90% positives for their tests

[Blotto 24044]

19 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

If you can find myricetin, do it.  It was on my list from above post more than 10 days ago.  It's not to be found.  The Isatis is available because it's Chinese.

is this the same shit?

https://www.amazon.com/Dihydromyricetin-DHM-Scientifically-Formulated-Prevention/dp/B00CX60CMA/ref=sr_1_10?dchild=1&keywords=myricetin&qid=1584941048&s=hpc&sr=1-10

And it kills hangovers!

[Upgrayedd 5916]

18 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

And 80% reduction in social contacts is all it takes.  Total lockdown not needed.  Awareness and following through with the contact reductions causes R naught (R0) to fall to less than 1.  At R0 <1, the virus stalls out within weeks without a vaccine or other cure.  Shutting down schools for kiddos will end up having been a huge positive.  Huge.  Universities across the country also really carried the torch relatively early on by finding alternatives to packing lecture halls.

He may be correct; however, if you have met anyone in this country, to get to 80% you have to lock down 125%

[Treefidy 1507]

2 hours ago, RayDog said:

There are enough masks for the 100 million people in the Philippines.  The cialis/viagra vendors are all selling masks now. Most are not N95 or surgical grade but they are better than nothing for wearing outside with other people around. There is no excuse for people in the us to have nothing to wear as a mask.

I have two N95 masks I bought over a month ago, when my order from the previous month was canceled. I alternate them so they dry between uses and wash them every couple days. I realize that washing them reduces their effectiveness,  but it will have to do for now. 

Maybe a UV light instead of washing?  Or direct sunlight for a couple hours?

[Sbbruin 22147]

I am gonna suck my own dick here, but I have called it the whole way through:
5 million dead in the US before it's done.
90% over 60.
Bet me.

Wrong

[Hmmm 155]

you takes bets on suckimg docK.  i'd assume Trojans are allowed in your no-lube stipulations

Edited March 23, 2020 by Hmmm

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

Essential work is what? Probably 20-30% of the work force in Texas? There are tons of people in the state of Texas still going to work everyday that what we’re currently doing does not stop. A shelter in place would stop a majority of the work force in said state to stop this further eliminating the risk. Right now is the most critical time to fight this and attempt to flatten the curve and California started earlier than we are. Our governor literally said we’re going to wait and see if we need to shelter in place. He is choosing to be reactive and not proactive in protecting the state and it’s citizens.

I knew he was going to be reactive when a week or so ago,  he said he wanted input from elected officials across the state.  That sounds nice, but only if everybody in the state is using the same playbook.  Instead, plenty of smaller towns and counties were not only not using the same playbook, they were not even playing the same fucking sport   

Bigger cities/counties began locking down in earnest while Cletus and friends bitched that they didn’t want no intrusion on their rights.  But when the inactions of Cletus and friends fills up the few ICU beds in their rural hospitals, they are going to come knocking on our doors, asking to fill up our limited ICU beds and use our limited ventilators, that we were trying to preserve by locking our shit down far earlier than they did.   

 This, at a time when people were still partying it up at South Padre, Galveston, and points in-between.  Those cities/counties are more than willing to fuck over the rest of the state in a bid to grab just one more week of spring break revenue, just like we saw in Florida, and Abbott was willing to let those places fuck things up for the rest of us.

Our state leadership wants to wait and see if this patchwork of policies, from the Dallas-area lockdown to the less stricter lockdowns in SA, Houstom, and Austin, to the shitshows along the Coast and the rural areas, can get the numbers down.    

Abbott wants us to play a game of Red Rover with the coronavirus, and instead of 254 counties linking arms and holding tight, half of us have left the line, are jacking off in the bushes, staring at the sky, playing marbles, fucking sheep, or painting another championship in the side of their stadium, and the rest of us are watching covid tear right though the line.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Stinkpalm 697]

27 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

He may be correct; however, if you have met anyone in this country, to get to 80% you have to lock down 125%

This shit right here. There was a group of about 40 strong at the lake today, having a cookout and crowding around a picnic shelter. I was so pissed, I almost fired the communal handle of 2 Stars at them that my 9 buddies and I had just polished off in the parking lot. Idjits.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

8 minutes ago, Stinkpalm said:

This shit right here. There was a group of about 40 strong at the lake today, having a cookout and crowding around a picnic shelter. I was so pissed, I almost fired the communal handle of 2 Stars at them that my 9 buddies and I had just polished off in the parking lot. Idjits.

Be a shame if people took their photos and posted it on social media.  

[Helobious 9825]

5 hours ago, smoky said:

Scott left out a key piece of information in his tweet: "Emma was diagnosed with pneumonia on March 15 "

Humans who are already in difficult situations are going to have a hard time with this virus.
 

COVID caused the pneumonia, you tard.

[Helobious 9825]

1 hour ago, AngryDragon said:

This is definitely not true. People have gotten reinfected at a rate of something like 14% in China from data in late Feb. 

I think that was before they realized there’s 2 different strains.

[AngryDragon 273]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

I think that was before they realized there’s 2 different strains.

Yeah realized that after checking some more recent articles. 

[atomheartbevo 90674]

So we will be topping 500+ deaths Monday, and pushing 45,000 cases.   A week ago, we were just hitting 100 deaths, and 4,500 cases.   Testing has definitely ramped up.   

 

[justhookit 4208]

Bad data in, bad data out. 

We have no fucking clue how many cases we had last week or now. Deaths right now are roughly from infections from 3 weeks ago. Arguing numbers and percentages right now is pointless, but what else do we have to do?

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Treefidy said:

Maybe a UV light instead of washing?  Or direct sunlight for a couple hours?

I had also considered heating masks to 150F or so as long as it does not damage adhesives. But I don't have a toaster oven or something similar. Luckily walking around outside gives plenty of uv to the outer surface of the mask.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Bad data in, bad data out. 

We have no fucking clue how many cases we had last week or now. Deaths right now are roughly from infections from 3 weeks ago. Arguing numbers and percentages right now is pointless, but what else do we have to do?

That’s why I was commenting on the testing ramping up.   Does not give us true figures, but like the early data in China, gives us a glimpse into the testing infrastructure.  

[Constant 6930]

The streets overnight in my division have looked promising. With the incoming shelter-in-place, I hope it only gets better. Call loads have been relatively low recently. Not seeing too many idiots trying to take advantage, so far. Domestic violence is about to go through the roof though. 

[Okie State 3889]

This is definitely not true. People have gotten reinfected at a rate of something like 14% in China from data in late Feb. 

If this is the case, what are we even doing? No immunity then just let us loose and hope for the best. Herd immunity or a vaccine are our only chance to get back to normal.

[Iceman 2985]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

No, I wasn’t serious, and I won’t have a teen for another 6 years, but In anticipation of that time, would like to hear your parenting tips for situations like the teens being dumbasses and traveling in packs, that doesn’t result in a call to CPS.

Kill them.  solved without CPS.

 

Seriously though, and not sure if you wanted an opinion but you know I'm game; 1) be the example of making the right choices for your own well being, not just during a crisis but consistently day to day for your family. When you remind them of the better choice to make, it should resonate, "yeah, Dad's not just being a dick, this is the way we live."  2) raise a child that doesn't believe in being part of a pack, and that doesn't mean the boys scouts or other organizations, but just following the crowd.  Yeah, they have their friends, but they march to their own beat when it comes to their decisions.  Maybe we just got lucky as hell on this front.  Our boys would call us at 9:00PM while attending a party lasting till midnight or later, before they could drive, " Come get me.  They say they are going to start some fires( not the fire pit in the back yard variety.)  I'm out. " or " hey they're drinking and someone just brought out pot.  Come get me."  3) the coaching happens before the game.  They should know before shit hits the fan what mom and dad are going to say.  They should also know what the RIGHT decisions are.  Sure they're human and take risks/ make mistakes; but how have you talked through them before with the kid?  Are you bitching at them, or making them understand what is right and wrong?

Cheap advice, for sure.  I'm damned sure no expert, but we raised 2 boys who do what the fuck they are supposed to. Again, when it came to real life shit as opposed to some random discretionary act; they knew what we said was what they had to do.  It was what WE had to do, such as abiding by the quarantine/ shelter in place would be for teens right now.  It was part of living under that roof.  It should be part of your relationship that lasts through adulthood.  The questions and discussions we've had into their 20's are every bit as important and weighty in life, only now, it's about leadership at work; or "Dad, walk me through the questions I should ask when buying a car( keep me from getting fucked!)  It doesn't mean they're always going to listen, but the expectations should not surprise them.

[BradInATX 9208]

I've got 3 old but brand new n95 masks. Who/ how should I Donate them?  I'd like them to go to the folks that really need them, but it's only three and the rubber bands are old.  Just drop em by the hospital or fire department?
 
is it even worth messing with?

My wife is in administration at a hospital that already expects to run out of masks in April. If you're in Austin I'm sure they would use them. PM me if interested

[closetojumping 65533]

6 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

This was the article from late Feb. 

Edited because that 14% number came from a specific province. Not all of China.

 

 

6 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

No...someone asked me where I got that number from. I read it in late Feb and was just pointing out the article. 

Yeah, you posted fear-mongering shit from Chinese “data” and “research” from ancient history as far as this bug goes. If every country in the fucking world wasn’t working towards some angle of getting through a wave and then having a somewhat immune base, including China, that article might have some legitimacy. 

6 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I read on reddit that New Jersey is pumping out 90% positives for their tests

Is this sarcasm, or are they really saying that? Is there legitimacy to that claim? That doesn’t seem like it’s happened anywhere in the world, does it?

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I knew he was going to be reactive when a week or so ago,  he said he wanted input from elected officials across the state.  That sounds nice, but only if everybody in the state is using the same playbook.  Instead, plenty of smaller towns and counties were not only not using the same playbook, they were not even playing the same fucking sport   

Bigger cities/counties began locking down in earnest while Cletus and friends bitched that they didn’t want no intrusion on their rights.  But when the inactions of Cletus and friends fills up the few ICU beds in their rural hospitals, they are going to come knocking on our doors, asking to fill up our limited ICU beds and use our limited ventilators, that we were trying to preserve by locking our shit down far earlier than they did.   

 This, at a time when people were still partying it up at South Padre, Galveston, and points in-between.  Those cities/counties are more than willing to fuck over the rest of the state in a bid to grab just one more week of spring break revenue, just like we saw in Florida, and Abbott was willing to let those places fuck things up for the rest of us.

Our state leadership wants to wait and see if this patchwork of policies, from the Dallas-area lockdown to the less stricter lockdowns in SA, Houstom, and Austin, to the shitshows along the Coast and the rural areas, can get the numbers down.    

Abbott wants us to play a game of Red Rover with the coronavirus, and instead of 254 counties linking arms and holding tight, half of us have left the line, are jacking off in the bushes, staring at the sky, playing marbles, fucking sheep, or painting another championship in the side of their stadium, and the rest of us are watching covid tear right though the line.  

I keep seeing Galveston get thrown into these kinds of posts by folks. I must have missed something. I was in Galveston for 8 days including all of last week until Saturday. I’ll grant that I wasn’t on the beach, but I drove by it daily for various reasons. The weather wasn’t that great and the place was as much of a ghost town as I’ve ever seen. What are the reports/images driving the notion that Galveston was some kind of clusterfuck? There were days in which we didn’t even see another person. 

[Cheeseweasel 26443]

5 hours ago, justhookit said:

 Arguing numbers and percentages right now is pointless, but what else do we have to do?

And just like that, Aggie claimed another NC.

[achooloco 1087]

7 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

This is definitely not true. People have gotten reinfected at a rate of something like 14% in China from data in late Feb. 

Current or updated Link? Dr. Fauci unequivocally stated you don’t get reinfected at his first or almost first PC. The the Japanese article questioning re-infection had also just come out so there “official stance” is no reinfection I’d guess. Even the link you posted said the reinfection might not be real. 

 

7 hours ago, Tailgate said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

But that’s the rub. Even in nyc people are still breaking SD. I want to believe this article but it’s main premise is flawed. 

[B00M 6736]

9 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

Honestly not sure what the trap is in the question or if there is one. You could tell me anything from the future about this right now and I could find a way to believe it. I think it’s nuts if others don’t see it that way. There is so much unknown right now about all of this that predicting the future in a way that means you’re certain and should be accountable seems futile and silly. 

Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 

Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 

What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear?