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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17682

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

That doesn’t account for the fact that some hard-hit states, particularly Cali and NY, started really trying to bring things down well over a week ago.  They may not have been perfect measures, and maybe not even up to the fabled 80%, but as a whole, we are trying to go in the right direction.  

Even if we are hitting 500+ deaths a day by Friday, I think you will start seeing things slowing down.  

It does though. Deaths aren't instantaneous from infection.  Rather, deaths are looking at infections from 3 to 4 weeks in the past. So, assuming Cali and NY's measures are successful, we should expect to see them reducing the number of new cases this week or next. Deaths will continue to climb for a week or so after that. And, plenty of areas didn't do jack, so they'll continue to rise for longer. 

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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25145

Posted
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I love how every time deaths are infections from 2 weeks in the past. 

Now deaths are 3 weeks in the past

Now deaths are infections 3-4 weeks in the past.

Jesus no they are likely not in may cases....some sure, ok but again such a massive unsupported assumption that at the very least the line keeps getting redrawn on.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40896

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

3M making 35 million N95 masks a month in the US, with none going to stores, and 90% straight to healthcare.  Rest to other critical services.  

Nephew’s nurse wife asked family members to sew up a bunch of surgical type masks to use at her healthcare facility.

My SIL has quite a bit of HEPA filter material to incorporate into them to supposedly make them N95 efficient. I dunno.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40896

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Well underway here.  I haven't left my house since Friday morning.

We’ve been at home since the 13th, but did go to the grocery a week ago, and once to pick up some TexMex carryout last Wednesday. That’s it.

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dcar00

dcar00 14356

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Scares you to death!

 

I think I've got the answer.  If the NCAA and NFL say there isn't going to be football in the fall unless we lockdown, a bunch of fucking dads and grampas are going to start bringing the hammer.  DO NOT FUCK WITH MY FOOTBALL!

Get on this quick.

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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2186

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Denver stay at home order through April 10

Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. 
 

Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a mess trying to get it as there’s going to be a run today at both stores. 

Edited by GabrielsHorn
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'stache

'stache 21860

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Scares you to death!

 

By that time, maybe they can have enough testing capabilities to at least play without fans in the stadiums? With enough planning, and depending on how the next 2-3 months go, maybe it's possible to at least watch on TV? Isn't that where most of the money is anyway? 

Edited by 'stache
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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6811

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. 
 

Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a bloodbath. 

Yeah liquor stores are non essential unless you’re an actual alcoholic. Then they’re very essential. 

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

000023

000065

000123

000105

000200

Six digit deaths, every day.

He was talking about people with six fingers. 

 

3 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. 
 

Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a mess trying to get it as there’s going to be a run today at both stores. 

In Italy they're essential, judging by the fact that they're open. Also, you can buy hard  liquor at the grocery store.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, 10,000. That was my error. 

US two days ago was on a rate of deaths doubling every 3 days.  It takes about 20 days for physical distancing measures to be reflected in an increased doubling time for deaths.  So if 21 days equals 7 doubles, with he numbers below, the US will be at ~5,300 deaths per day beginning 18 days from 3/21 and ~11,000 deaths per day after 21 days.  I do think those numbers will be less by 18-21 days because of the effects of physical distancing that started at the end of the first week of March in hot spots like Washington and other locales.  But for the curve to really flatten, has to be national hammer drop.  What percent of US population is adhering to strict social distancing today?  Can't delay any longer anywhere.

key graphic:

 

ETqJStxUYAAQEn2.jpg

 

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18894

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

By that time, maybe they can have enough testing capabilities to at least play without fans in the stadiums? With enough planning, and depending on how the next 2-3 months go, maybe it's possible to at least watch on TV? Isn't that where most of the money is anyway? 

Aggy would still report 135,000 in attendance 

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6331

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. 
 

Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a mess trying to get it as there’s going to be a run today at both stores. 

Or you could just not. Getting booze isn't essential.

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Js1

Js1 85565

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. 
 

Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a mess trying to get it as there’s going to be a run today at both stores. 

Good luck brother 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62839

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We continue to be on pace for it.  We had 23 deaths on 3/17/2020. By 3/20 we had 65. Yesterday we had 123. And we have 105 so far today. We very well may be near 200 before the day is over. At this pace, we'll hit 4 figures by April 1 and 5 figures by April 10. I don't know why you keep questioning the math on this, you've been wrong every step of the way. 

Source: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

 

 

Hahahaha. Holy fucking shit.

You don't know what in the fuck you are talking about here, but you've got a spreadsheet or some article to lean on, and dang it, these are the fucking facts! Right. You don't know shit about how data from the classroom is impacted by variables being adjusted in the chaos of real world exercises. You know how I know? Because you, and the others shrieking just like you, have shown us. Even slight tweaks in behaviors or conditions of variables in real world big data/chaos exercises have been proven time and time again to even violently impact expected results. 

The "we're not doing enough!" howling appears like it won't end until martial law is imposed across the country. Only until we've fully empowered the police, the semi-military, and the military to protect us from ourselves will some of you be happy. 

In truth, substantial shifts in behavior have been occurring for 3 weeks now. Stop conferences and business travel? Done before Italy shut down. Stop sporting and entertaining events and request social distancing? Done two weeks ago. Close the schools? Done mostly 2 weeks ago. Close borders, put hot zones in lockdown, encourage or require WFH? Done, done, done. Close restaurants, bars, Vegas, churches, mosques, synagogues? Yep. Require social distancing and see social distancing shaming explode in the shithole hell of the social media sphere? You bet.

You can point to anecdotes of here and there dumbasses or small towns ignoring shit. Fine. The curve began to be bent 3 weeks ago and things have gone virtually full tilt towards bending it once it started. Acting as if we're straight-lining into perpetuity is either an agenda push or ignorance. 

Also, yeah it's still a big deal. A lot of people will die. It's going to suck and we're all probably going to know plenty that pass. Some of us might die. But you guys are being ridiculous with your nonsense on this shit. We've given license over the last few weeks to the worst kind of kooks to come out and offer their esteemed opinions, stating them as facts, to be passed on virally in social media. Nevermind the math dorks and quants who become so committed to their data sets that they forget that the real world isn't a fucking quantifiable equation. 

 

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'stache

'stache 21860

Posted
Posted

Restaurants here are allowed to fill growlers "to avoid spoliation." I live right by a restaurant with a huge craft beer list and they are selling pretty cheap. I have three growlers I might fill and would tip probably 30-40% to help them out. Question is, how long would growler beer last in my fridge? If if could make it 3-4 weeks, my weekends would be set for at least that long.

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Macanudo

Macanudo 13010

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Restaurants here are allowed to fill growlers "to avoid spoliation." I live right by a restaurant with a huge craft beer list and they are selling pretty cheap. I have three growlers I might fill and would tip probably 30-40% to help them out. Question is, how long would growler beer last in my fridge? If if could make it 3-4 weeks, my weekends would be set for at least that long.

Growler is good for 2-3 days.  Maybe 3-4

if you have a good one with a tight seal.  But that's really, really stretching it.

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Hahahaha. Holy fucking shit.

You don't know what in the fuck you are talking about here, but you've got a spreadsheet or some article to lean on, and dang it, these are the fucking facts! Right. You don't know shit about how data from the classroom is impacted by variables being adjusted in the chaos of real world exercises. You know how I know? Because you, and the others shrieking just like you, have shown us. Even slight tweaks in behaviors or conditions of variables in real world big data/chaos exercises have been proven time and time again to even violently impact expected results. 

The "we're not doing enough!" howling appears like it won't end until martial law is imposed across the country. Only until we've fully empowered the police, the semi-military, and the military to protect us from ourselves will some of you be happy. 

In truth, substantial shifts in behavior have been occurring for 3 weeks now. Stop conferences and business travel? Done before Italy shut down. Stop sporting and entertaining events and request social distancing? Done two weeks ago. Close the schools? Done mostly 2 weeks ago. Close borders, put hot zones in lockdown, encourage or require WFH? Done, done, done. Close restaurants, bars, Vegas, churches, mosques, synagogues? Yep. Require social distancing and see social distancing shaming explode in the shithole hell of the social media sphere? You bet.

You can point to anecdotes of here and there dumbasses or small towns ignoring shit. Fine. The curve began to be bent 3 weeks ago and things have gone virtually full tilt towards bending it once it started. Acting as if we're straight-lining into perpetuity is either an agenda push or ignorance. 

Also, yeah it's still a big deal. A lot of people will die. It's going to suck and we're all probably going to know plenty that pass. Some of us might die. But you guys are being ridiculous with your nonsense on this shit. We've given license over the last few weeks to the worst kind of kooks to come out and offer their esteemed opinions, stating them as facts, to be passed on virally in social media. Nevermind the math dorks and quants who become so committed to their data sets that they forget that the real world isn't a fucking quantifiable equation. 

 

I thought it was going to be "Marshall Law."  I pictured horses and posses.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54416

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Restaurants here are allowed to fill growlers "to avoid spoliation." I live right by a restaurant with a huge craft beer list and they are selling pretty cheap. I have three growlers I might fill and would tip probably 30-40% to help them out. Question is, how long would growler beer last in my fridge? If if could make it 3-4 weeks, my weekends would be set for at least that long.

We ordered takeout from my neighborhood restaurant last night and they sent us out with pints of beer in plastic cups, which was pretty cool.  

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1295

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, stone oak said:

https://www.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2020/03/23/san-antonio-shelter-in-place-order-is-imminent-as-city-experiences-its-first-coronavirus-related-death

I have been hearing the same from nurses and doctors I know as well. /Simone

I wonder if steak & fries + lapdance carry-out orders from Sugar's or the Palace constitutes as essential?

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3268

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Hahahaha. Holy fucking shit.

You don't know what in the fuck you are talking about here, but you've got a spreadsheet or some article to lean on, and dang it, these are the fucking facts! Right. You don't know shit about how data from the classroom is impacted by variables being adjusted in the chaos of real world exercises. You know how I know? Because you, and the others shrieking just like you, have shown us. Even slight tweaks in behaviors or conditions of variables in real world big data/chaos exercises have been proven time and time again to even violently impact expected results. 

The "we're not doing enough!" howling appears like it won't end until martial law is imposed across the country. Only until we've fully empowered the police, the semi-military, and the military to protect us from ourselves will some of you be happy. 

In truth, substantial shifts in behavior have been occurring for 3 weeks now. Stop conferences and business travel? Done before Italy shut down. Stop sporting and entertaining events and request social distancing? Done two weeks ago. Close the schools? Done mostly 2 weeks ago. Close borders, put hot zones in lockdown, encourage or require WFH? Done, done, done. Close restaurants, bars, Vegas, churches, mosques, synagogues? Yep. Require social distancing and see social distancing shaming explode in the shithole hell of the social media sphere? You bet.

You can point to anecdotes of here and there dumbasses or small towns ignoring shit. Fine. The curve began to be bent 3 weeks ago and things have gone virtually full tilt towards bending it once it started. Acting as if we're straight-lining into perpetuity is either an agenda push or ignorance. 

Also, yeah it's still a big deal. A lot of people will die. It's going to suck and we're all probably going to know plenty that pass. Some of us might die. But you guys are being ridiculous with your nonsense on this shit. We've given license over the last few weeks to the worst kind of kooks to come out and offer their esteemed opinions, stating them as facts, to be passed on virally in social media. Nevermind the math dorks and quants who become so committed to their data sets that they forget that the real world isn't a fucking quantifiable equation. 

 

Not to mention the comparisons to northern Italy who is tied to the hip with China especially in the garment industry. They have direct flights in and out of Wuhan and over 300,000 Chinese working in Italy. 

Edited by EuroHorn
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dcar00

dcar00 14356

Posted
Posted
Just now, EuroHorn said:

Not to mention the comparisons to northern Italy who is tied to the hip with China especially in the garment industry. They have direct flights in and out of Wuhan and over 300,000 Chinese working in northern Italy. 

300K?  really?  shit if those folks went home for CNY and came back....holy shit!

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17682

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Hahahaha. Holy fucking shit.

You don't know what in the fuck you are talking about here, but you've got a spreadsheet or some article to lean on, and dang it, these are the fucking facts! Right. You don't know shit about how data from the classroom is impacted by variables being adjusted in the chaos of real world exercises. You know how I know? Because you, and the others shrieking just like you, have shown us. Even slight tweaks in behaviors or conditions of variables in real world big data/chaos exercises have been proven time and time again to even violently impact expected results. 

The "we're not doing enough!" howling appears like it won't end until martial law is imposed across the country. Only until we've fully empowered the police, the semi-military, and the military to protect us from ourselves will some of you be happy. 

In truth, substantial shifts in behavior have been occurring for 3 weeks now. Stop conferences and business travel? Done before Italy shut down. Stop sporting and entertaining events and request social distancing? Done two weeks ago. Close the schools? Done mostly 2 weeks ago. Close borders, put hot zones in lockdown, encourage or require WFH? Done, done, done. Close restaurants, bars, Vegas, churches, mosques, synagogues? Yep. Require social distancing and see social distancing shaming explode in the shithole hell of the social media sphere? You bet.

You can point to anecdotes of here and there dumbasses or small towns ignoring shit. Fine. The curve began to be bent 3 weeks ago and things have gone virtually full tilt towards bending it once it started. Acting as if we're straight-lining into perpetuity is either an agenda push or ignorance. 

Also, yeah it's still a big deal. A lot of people will die. It's going to suck and we're all probably going to know plenty that pass. Some of us might die. But you guys are being ridiculous with your nonsense on this shit. We've given license over the last few weeks to the worst kind of kooks to come out and offer their esteemed opinions, stating them as facts, to be passed on virally in social media. Nevermind the math dorks and quants who become so committed to their data sets that they forget that the real world isn't a fucking quantifiable equation. 

 

? I agree, we started to take action over the last 2 weeks. It has been piecemeal, not uniform, and not entirely effective. But, it was something. And, it should the slow the spread. But, in the near term we will see continued acceleration of new cases and deaths being reported. That is just an artifact of the time lag. I'm not relying on my own expertise here, I'm looking at what the experts have done (e.g., the Imperial College of London had us peaking at 55,000 deaths per day in the do-nothing scenario). And every analysis shows the same basic pattern. Honestly, the main outlier at this point is Japan. I wish we knew why they don't seem to be having the same problems despite having on a paper a vulnerable population.

The main question at this point is what we've done enough to truly control the spread. It appears to me that answer is going to depend on the region.  As NYC starts to see slowed growth due to its aggressive actions, other areas (looking at you Florida) will see accelerated growth. 

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