Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Iceman 2,639]

1 minute ago, Thetexashammer said:

Stoners aren't known for their impressive work ethic.

They tend to make some better-than-average music, however.

[EuroHorn 3,204]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well it’s the 20s, and now prohibition is back along with the market crash.  What else?

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

4 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Stoners aren't known for their impressive work ethic.

Well there's one more thing you're wrong about, wanna try for the trifecta ?

[akhornfan 4]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

We were always roughly two weeks behind Italy. Still are. Guess what their total death count was 2 weeks ago? 463. Ours so far is 572. Their daily deaths? Ours? 116 so far today. Seriously, you haven't been right one time on any subject. You've moved goal posts and attacked straw man arguments. When this started, you thought it was just the flu and no big deal. You thought the CFR would go below the regular flu. Both of those are obviously wrong at this point. 

 

I never said what I thought the CFR would be just that it wasn’t and wouldn’t be 3%. I said we were further behind Italy and that the chart for cases was useless because the comparison was apples to oranges. Ive said a million US won’t die. That one still has to be proven out, but is highly unlikely. 

[Dahobbs 17,437]

Just now, akhornfan said:

I never said what I thought the CFR would be just that it wasn’t and wouldn’t be 3%. I said we were further behind Italy and that the chart for cases was useless because the comparison was apples to oranges. Ive said a million US won’t die. That one still has to be proven out, but is highly unlikely. 

The only reason a million will not die is because we finally acted. I don't know why that is so hard to understand. 

[Dbeasy 14,963]

See, now this was entertaining. Well done.

I’d just like to thank this thread for occupying CTJ’s attention long enough to keep him from pontificating all over the recruiting thread during this difficult time period where nothing is happening in recruiting.

[heso 2,748]

2 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

I find this fascinating...Covid...sure but overall we be getting healthier than expected??

 

https://healthweather.us/

My guess would be the drastic measures everyone is taking to avoid the covid are causing typical cold and flu infections to plummet. That’s regularly 50-100 million potential fevers annually that aren’t being spread around right now. 

[Texas_Rocks 346]

Aggy would still report 135,000 in attendance 

If the season is canceled, they can claim the title.

[closetojumping 62,219]

28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

? I agree, we started to take action over the last 2 weeks. It has been piecemeal, not uniform, and not entirely effective. But, it was something. And, it should the slow the spread. But, in the near term we will see continued acceleration of new cases and deaths being reported. That is just an artifact of the time lag. I'm not relying on my own expertise here, I'm looking at what the experts have done (e.g., the Imperial College of London had us peaking at 55,000 deaths per day in the do-nothing scenario). And every analysis shows the same basic pattern. Honestly, the main outlier at this point is Japan. I wish we knew why they don't seem to be having the same problems despite having on a paper a vulnerable population.

The main question at this point is what we've done enough to truly control the spread. It appears to me that answer is going to depend on the region.  As NYC starts to see slowed growth due to its aggressive actions, other areas (looking at you Florida) will see accelerated growth. 

The Imperial College of London work-up was a math exercise. It didn't even account for already known potential drivers/non-drivers of spread and severity of illness, such as generational stacking, smoking, pollution, social norms and greets, age of specific populations, densities, etc. It got a whole bunch of media writers, math dorks, and doomsdayers excited enough to masturbate while reading it, but it wasn't even a real world breakdown when released. 

I expect US cases to continue to skyrocket for another week, but I do not see it as an indicator of actual spread. We had it for months, it spread, and now we're catching up with our measuring and openness of the problem as a society, unlike many of the early countries to get hit.

The level of shutdown, and where, will remain some sort of bizarre debate for folks, clearly. My view, as with most shit, is that more could be done, but at some point, the exchange for what more could be done versus what you need to make people do it are two different things. Nevermind the psychological issues associated with this and the collective risk for all of us as we become increasingly more dependent on only our immediate stimuli/stressors to guide our thinking, short of obsessing over the news cycle.

Isolating people to themselves and immediate family members creates risks we don't fully even understand in a free society, and that's a whole new pandora's box of variables we're trending towards opening. More opportunities for abuse, psychotic breaks, suicide, neighbor-on-neighbor violence, etc. Most folks have only joked about divorce and birth rates, but, yeah, there's other real shit that could begin to unfold in larger and larger numbers. That shit isn't a punchline once this passes more than a few weeks of lock down.

On top of that, we're also not even attempting to discuss overall breakdown of general physical societal norms, and what those long term effects could be to all of us. That spans anything from a general willingness to gather in large crowds (sports, mass transit, entertainment) all the way over to making friends as children, or new complications therein. Casual sex, among myriad other things, is somewhere in that spectrum of "where to now?" for our society. The longer and more draconian the shutdown, the further and further we drift from old habits and behaviors and into new ones. New biases as well, good and bad.

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

 

Big difference is that the police have been given the authority to issue fines for being out and about without a good reason. So it's quite a bit more significant than here in the US.

If cops started issuing tickets for just being outside with no good reason here in the states, people would be apoplectic

It is "mostly what we've already done". Just with some significant differences.

I feel like you haven't spent much time in England. 

[Hate 20,103]

9 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Stoners aren't known for their impressive work ethic.

Lol...you have absolutely no idea.  I assure you, there are people that you admire as hard working successful people that smoke pot every single day.  You just fall for the stereotype. 

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well it’s the 20s, and now prohibition is back along with the market crash.  What else?

Harvey Weinstein would make a great Fatty Arbuckle.   

[Skipper 6,103]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We were always roughly two weeks behind Italy. Still are. Guess what their total death count was 2 weeks ago? 463. Ours so far is 572. Their daily deaths? 97 Ours? 116 so far today. Seriously, you haven't been right one time on any subject. You've moved goal posts and attacked straw man arguments. When this started, you thought it was just the flu and no big deal. You thought the CFR would go below the regular flu. Both of those are obviously wrong at this point. 

 

This video makes great point that we need to stop comparing the "US" to "Italy" and frankly Italy needs to be looked at as the Lombardy region vs. everywhere else.   This should be required viewing (10 mins of your time) for this thread:   https://t.co/PCcoT6XB5z?amp=1

As I think most suspected it looks like NYC is pretty fucked and it's going to be ugly over the next few weeks.

It also begs the question as to current state of things in Dallas (or name your city).  Drive through testing now open here to any age with qualifying symptoms as of today (much better).  But still presumably a 3 to 5 day turnaround on test results? Not good.  Our data has been shit and will still be constantly stale.  So are hospital stats like cited for NYC in the the video publicly available anywhere?  Do we have any idea the current number of confirmed cases in ICU beds locally?  It seems like that will give us a much better sense of where things stand in Dallas, Houston, Austin, etc.   

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The only reason a million will not die is because we finally acted. I don't know why that is so hard to understand. 

Think that one up all by yourself ?

'

EDIT:  So you first say 6 figures are gonna die., just look at the numbers and compare int to Italy.  Then you say no it's 5 figures are gonna die, just look at the numbers. Then you say well it will be less than a mil. because we're finally doing something....  huhhh ?  

Of course we're doing something, Italy would have had less deaths if they'd done something earlier as well.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[DigglerontheHoof 21,053]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

Lol...you have absolutely no idea.  I assure you, there are people that you admire as hard working successful people that smoke pot every single day.  You just fall for the stereotype. 

Well, he's wrong a lot, so...

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

San Antonio press conference at 6?

[Hate 20,103]

1 minute ago, Bevo VIII said:

San Antonio press conference at seis

fixed for accuracy /SA native

[RDCanecutter 26,249]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well it’s the 20s, and now prohibition is back along with the market crash.  What else?

We end our sentences by saying "see", see?

https://images.app.goo.gl/hnbkW1FCrEf7yfLDA

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

1 hour ago, Hmbre97 said:

Or you could just not. Getting booze isn't essential.

Speak for yourself.  I did a Specs delivery for enough booze for a month.  It was an eighteen wheeler.

[akhornfan 4]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Think that one up all by yourself ?

Exactly - we were just going to sit back and do nothing with huge death numbers. Anyone trying to unwind their exaggerated claims with the argument of ‘well we did something to stop it’ aren’t being intellectually honest 

[Dahobbs 17,437]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The level of shutdown, and where, will remain some sort of bizarre debate for folks, clearly. My view, as with most shit, is that more could be done, but at some point, the exchange for what more could be done versus what you need to make people do it are two different things. Nevermind the psychological issues associated with this and the collective risk for all of us as we become increasingly more dependent on only our immediate stimuli/stressors to guide our thinking, short of obsessing over the news cycle.

You can only have this debate if you're willing to honestly assess what will happen. Both the CDC and the Imperial College of London came up with similar numbers in terms of the spread of the illness and overall fatalities. If anything, the growing death rate in the US indicates they actually undervalued the speed at which this is spreading (Imperial College of London assumed a 5 day doubling period, but, based on deaths, we've seen a 3 day doubling period). I'm perfectly willing to admit that a nationwide shutdown (which we still haven't done) will have severe short term consequences to our economy. I really don't understand why you and others refuse to believe that allowing the virus to spread unconstrained would have resulted in the exact type of calamity predicated, i.e., a million plus dead. I'm not hysterical. But I'm also not leaving my head in the sand. You want to replace the judgment of experts with your own. That is just wishful thinking on your part and not an honest and objective assessment of the situation. 

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

Just got off the phone with Methodist Hospital HR (gonna try to work in the ICU until we can do surgeries again).

 

they are trying to hire 70... SEVENTY nurses, 8 PAs/NPs, and a few docs by nexy week. The postings just went live today

 

thats unreal. They must be expecting something yuge

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

Exactly - we were just going to sit back and do nothing with huge death numbers. Anyone trying to unwind their exaggerated claims with the argument of ‘well we did something to stop it’ aren’t being intellectually honest 

Oh it was a plot twister how he kind of back pedaled that prognostication.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Just got off the phone with Methodist Hospital HR (gonna try to work in the ICU until we can do surgeries again).

 

they are trying to hire 70... SEVENTY nurses, 8 PAs/NPs, and a few docs by nexy week. The postings just went live today

 

thats unreal. They must be expecting something yuge

Yeah hospitals workers having to pull long shifts so you better have lots of folks who can fill in, and help staff up.

[JimmyHoffa 1,188]

12 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

If the season is canceled, they can claim the title.

 

And Nebraska's home sellout streak continues...

[Dahobbs 17,437]

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Oh it was a plot twister how he kind of back pedaled that prognostication.

What the fuck are y'all talking about? What have I walked back?

Look, the whole problem is that you can't wait for the numbers to get big in a situation like this. Italy started shutting things down when they had just 200 confirmed cases. But, by that time there was already a ton of momentum built up and here they are now, maybe finally starting to crest downward. We waited longer. Our numbers will be bigger. It really is that simple. 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harris-County-prepares-shelter-in-place-order-as-15151465.php

Harris County prepares shelter-in-place order as Hidalgo mulls options

...Hidalgo said Monday if the county issues such a directive, calling it a shelter in place order is “not the right term” because it “evokes hurricanes, chemical incidents, makes you think of an active shooter drill....”

 

Exactly, this has pissed me off from the beginning and caused a lot of confusion.  But of course the pea-brains at the Chronicle still used it in their headline.

Edited March 23, 2020 by clapclapclap

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

Bell County’s SIP, same as the others 

https://www.kxxv.com/your-hometown/bell-county/bell-county-issues-shelter-in-place-order

[Trey3216 15,325]

24 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We were always roughly two weeks behind Italy. Still are. Guess what their total death count was 2 weeks ago? 463. Ours so far is 572. Their daily deaths? 97 Ours? 116 so far today. Seriously, you haven't been right one time on any subject. You've moved goal posts and attacked straw man arguments. When this started, you thought it was just the flu and no big deal. You thought the CFR would go below the regular flu. Both of those are obviously wrong at this point. 

 

We’re also about 6-7x the population of Italy. 

[closetojumping 62,219]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You can only have this debate if you're willing to honestly assess what will happen. Both the CDC and the Imperial College of London came up with similar numbers in terms of the spread of the illness and overall fatalities. If anything, the growing death rate in the US indicates they actually undervalued the speed at which this is spreading (Imperial College of London assumed a 5 day doubling period, but, based on deaths, we've seen a 3 day doubling period). I'm perfectly willing to admit that a nationwide shutdown (which we still haven't done) will have severe short term consequences to our economy. I really don't understand why you and others refuse to believe that allowing the virus to spread unconstrained would have resulted in the exact type of calamity predicated, i.e., a million plus dead. I'm not hysterical. But I'm also not leaving my head in the sand. You want to replace the judgment of experts with your own. That is just wishful thinking on your part and not an honest and objective assessment of the situation. 

I guess one of the chasms between me and those of your ilk is that at no point in the history of any of this did I believe that nothing would be done. I view the premise as utterly fucking absurd and not worth the keystrokes to legitimately dispute. So, I entertained myself with that silliness at the time. You guys shit yourselves. Then you think you were the ones who had it straight the whole way. 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are y'all talking about? What have I walked back?

Look, the whole problem is that you can't wait for the numbers to get big in a situation like this. Italy started shutting things down when they had just 200 confirmed cases. But, by that time there was already a ton of momentum built up and here they are now, maybe finally starting to crest downward. We waited longer. Our numbers will be bigger. It really is that simple. 

See post 22326. No it's not that simple, there are so many factors going on starting with our health care system which is better equipped than the Italian system.  Comparing infection rates between different countries is one thing, saying the mortality rates country by country are also going to be the same is quite another.

[Dahobbs 17,437]

12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

This video makes great point that we need to stop comparing the "US" to "Italy" and frankly Italy needs to be looked at as the Lombardy region vs. everywhere else.   This should be required viewing (10 mins of your time) for this thread:   https://t.co/PCcoT6XB5z?amp=1

As I think most suspected it looks like NYC is pretty fucked and it's going to be ugly over the next few weeks.

It also begs the question as to current state of things in Dallas (or name your city).  Drive through testing now open here to any age with qualifying symptoms as of today (much better).  But still presumably a 3 to 5 day turnaround on test results? Not good.  Our data has been shit and will still be constantly stale.  So are hospital stats like cited for NYC in the the video publicly available anywhere?  Do we have any idea the current number of confirmed cases in ICU beds locally?  It seems like that will give us a much better sense of where things stand in Dallas, Houston, Austin, etc.   

Yeah, that is true. As I've previously posted, the effects here are going to be highly regionalized. Different areas had different exposure times and different reactions. NYC was obviously hit pretty early and didn't know it, so their numbers are going to get huge. About the time their numbers start dropping, you'll probably see areas like Florida and New Orleans have escalating numbers. Ohio may turn out the best of everywhere as they seemed on top of their game from the word go.  I'm hoping Houston and Austin are more lightly hit, largely because things like school closures happened when there were a smaller number of known cases here. I'm not sure about Dallas, seems like there is more going on there. 

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

Here are the oils Chad Briscoe recommends because of jesus or something. His site is also worth a browse for those who haven't. 

http://www.legitimatebusinessenterpise.biz/

These are the Type's of Oil's witch are available
Christ Sent
Lavender Sent
Pinto Nior
Pooporee Sent
Christmes Tree Sent (PINE TREE'S)
Olive Oil with Scavenge Egg's
Mapel Surpe
Rasberry Colada Sent
Carilina Barbacue
Frank Sense Oil
Frank Sence plus Murh
Nard (SELLED OUT)
Bleach

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

curves flattening the curve 

 

---> vid inside

 

 

 

Man, you couldn't even come up with a better pair of Portland strippers if you were writing an episode of SNL. Perfect.

[InkaUtexas 25,497]

FEMA posted this on the behalf of HHS. 

Attached is the HHS CONOPS for managing a 50 bed facility.  We would want to get to a capacity to manage 6 x 250 bed facilities within Region 10 states of Washington, Idaho and Oregon. The numbers after the sub total is for a management team of the facility. We would like the temp agency to provide that management structure.  If not and a temp agency can only provide medical personnel that would be acceptable. At this time, this is for information only, this will be subject to availability of funds and may not be contracted by FEMA. Since it is unknown of the executing agency, contract may come form HHS or Washington county.

[XYZ 2,154]

3 minutes ago, BBQ2Bayou said:

Here are the oils Chad Briscoe recommends because of jesus or something. His site is also worth a browse for those who haven't. 

http://www.legitimatebusinessenterpise.biz/

These are the Type's of Oil's witch are available
Christ Sent
Lavender Sent
Pinto Nior
Pooporee Sent
Christmes Tree Sent (PINE TREE'S)
Olive Oil with Scavenge Egg's
Mapel Surpe
Rasberry Colada Sent
Carilina Barbacue
Frank Sense Oil
Frank Sence plus Murh
Nard (SELLED OUT)
Bleach

 

What the fuck is wrong with you?

[dcar00 14,030]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We’re also about 6-7x the population of Italy. 

biggest mistake was not stopping all incoming flights(except US citizens) and shutting all borders(citizens and essential) on 1/31 from everywhere.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

San Antonio continues to be the fat, drunk uncle lagging a couple days behind the other major cities in texas

And we wouldn't have it any other way!

[Dahobbs 17,437]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

I guess one of the chasms between me and those of your ilk is that at no point in the history of any of this did I believe that nothing would be done. I view the premise as utterly fucking absurd and not worth the keystrokes to legitimately dispute. So, I entertained myself with that silliness at the time. You guys shit yourselves. Then you think you were the ones who had it straight the whole way. 

 

? I never predicted a million deaths. I've said that is what happens if we do nothing. Knowing that bit of information allows us to evaluate and balance our actions. If the do nothing scenario was 40,000 deaths, it'd be difficult to advocate for any significant economic disruption to handle the threat. A million potential deaths justifies more action, in line with short term shutdowns. If no one ever said "here is how bad it could be" then we'd never know how far we needed to go to stop it. Making an informed decision and taking an honest assessment of the situation isn't "shitting yourself."  Our military has contingency plans for wars with places like fucking Ecuador. That isn't because we are scared shitless of Ecuador. It is because we want to have an understanding of how to approach that problem should it arise. 

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

fuck, i think my job is considered essential.....what a joke. I wanted some days off for free.

[StruggleBus 3,922]

Just now, Bevo VIII said:

fuck, i think my job is considered essential.....what a joke. I wanted some days off for free.

Government worker?

[JesusSweatDuck 17,780]

This thread is going to 1000 isn't it

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Government worker?

rebar fabrication for construction

[Dahobbs 17,437]

8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

See post 22326. No it's not that simple, there are so many factors going on starting with our health care system which is better equipped than the Italian system.  Comparing infection rates between different countries is one thing, saying the mortality rates country by country are also going to be the same is quite another.

I don't think we are going to have the same mortality rate as Italy. Our rate is going to be much lower (probably 1% of confirmed infections?). We just have a lot more infections. 

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

Here's a nice analysis of how politics works. No Cloaca.

 

[Moby Ric 2,058]

Falling like dominoes.  B/CS is now has a shelter in place order.   But not a total lockdown. 

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

biggest mistake was not stopping all incoming flights(except US citizens) and shutting all borders(citizens and essential) on 1/31 from everywhere.

Yupp

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

So bryan/CS, dfw, SA, austin?, and temple/belton all have shelter in place.... but not houston?

[SHOOTER12 8,788]

3 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

She was batshit crazy.  Crystals, magick (with a "k"), spelled it "womyn" - the whole bit.  But (as expected) pretty amazing in bed and drank like a fucking fish.  Tailor made for that "what should I do with my life" phase after college.

Her name was pretty damn out there - "Amy."

Amy, what you wanna do,

I think I could stay with you

For a while, maybe longer if I do

[StruggleBus 3,922]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

biggest mistake was not stopping all incoming flights(except US citizens) and shutting all borders(citizens and essential) on 1/31 from everywhere.

Lol. I'm not gonna get all cloaky, but people's heads would have exploded (including many on this site) if we did that back on 1/31.

[Incredulity 11,559]

5 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

This thread is going to 1000 isn't it

That’s ten thousand.

 

 

something, something, no math.