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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

A reasoned post.  60M US citizens got H1N1.  how do you think the CDC got to that number?  I'm asking because I don't know.  12K died.  .02 well below .1 of flu.  how did they get that death number?

what was the positive/negative case rate and death rate of H1N1 by day/week over the first 3-4 months?  I'm asking because I am interested in the comparison and I can't seem to find that data

I am by no means saying this is like H1N1. its not.   It seems to spread faster, H1N1 had some treaments that seemed to be effective early on, and we were able to shoehorn in a vaccine due to having a base to work from(something I learned from this thread)

you seem to be thinking we don't think that this is serious.  It is and the govt and medical community should be erring on overreacting but they have to balance that with trying to keep 320M people from going into complete panic at once and work supply chains.  christ, a bunch of stuff is hard to get and we didn't do an immediate lockdown.  can you imagine the chaos if we did?

IMO, everyone is putting in best efforts here and people should be sacrificing little shit for big shit. NYC is a white hot zone for some unknown reason as of yet and we need more resources there than elsewhere.  Make no mistake people will die.  maybe even someone I know will and it will suck.  My dad is 81, fairly healthy, but he's in the target zone if he gets it.  It will probably be worse than swine and flu but no one knows for sure how much.  at the end of this 12 months from now 1% could happen and that would be very bad if the number who get it is 40-60M. we can keep up hope, be positive, teach the youngins a bit along the way, and come out the other side eventually.  In reality I've never really had to sacrifice to be honest.  too young for vietnam and the military changed before 9/11.

We've got some smart fuckers working on this stuff.  I'm gonna bet on them.

 

  

 

I don't have that data on H1N1, but I'm sure it is out there somewhere. I don't think the CFR was ever anything like we are seeing with sars-cov-2. Actually, here is a 2009 article that says initial estimates were a .4% fatality rate (4x regular flu) before lowered substantially (.03%). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797432/

As to whether we think this is serious, beliefs appear to run the gamut. Some think it is not big deal at all and we are overreacting. Some think it is serious, but on the level of a 2x regular flu season type of serious. And yes, some probably believe it is the end of the world or some other nonsense. I think it is precisely as serious as I've seen from the actual experts: a potential 1 million to 2 million deaths (prior to our recent actions) + overwhelmed healthcare system serious. 

At any rate, I'm just trying to objectively analyze the available evidence to see where we are and where we are going. Some take offense to that for some reason that I honestly don't understand. 

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Auto Driller

Auto Driller 2504

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't have that data on H1N1, but I'm sure it is out there somewhere. I don't think the CFR was ever anything like we are seeing with sars-cov-2. Actually, here is a 2009 article that says initial estimates were a .4% fatality rate (4x regular flu) before lowered substantially (.03%). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797432/

As to whether we think this is serious, beliefs appear to run the gamut. Some think it is not big deal at all and we are overreacting. Some think it is serious, but on the level of a 2x regular flu season type of serious. And yes, some probably believe it is the end of the world or some other nonsense. I think it is precisely as serious as I've seen from the actual experts: a potential 1 million to 2 million deaths (prior to our recent actions) + overwhelmed healthcare system serious. 

At any rate, I'm just trying to objectively analyze the available evidence to see where we are and where we are going. Some take offense to that for some reason that I honestly don't understand. 

Times are tough. Internet slap fights are all we have left.

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TornACL

TornACL 7675

Posted
Posted (edited)

Does over 10 masks per employee make sense? God it must be amazing to work in procurement for some rich ass tech company. 

Oops we put an extra 0 in the purchase order, now we just bought 700k masks instead of 70k. 

Ooooh well, let's go play ping pong.

Edited by TornACL
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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't have that data on H1N1, but I'm sure it is out there somewhere. I don't think the CFR was ever anything like we are seeing with sars-cov-2. Actually, here is a 2009 article that says initial estimates were a .4% fatality rate (4x regular flu) before lowered substantially (.03%). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797432/

As to whether we think this is serious, beliefs appear to run the gamut. Some think it is not big deal at all and we are overreacting. Some think it is serious, but on the level of a 2x regular flu season type of serious. And yes, some probably believe it is the end of the world or some other nonsense. I think it is precisely as serious as I've seen from the actual experts: a potential 1 million to 2 million deaths (prior to our recent actions) + overwhelmed healthcare system serious. 

At any rate, I'm just trying to objectively analyze the available evidence to see where we are and where we are going. Some take offense to that for some reason that I honestly don't understand. 

fair enough.  considering our health care and infectious disease is pretty fucking stellar, I don't think 1M to 2M deaths was really in the cards because we weren't going to do nothing.  The actions have been a "draw down" IMO but I can't tell you it was or wasn't for sure because none of us are in those meetings.  it couldn't happen in 2 weeks and it couldn't take 5 months either. 

medical guys can say "quarantine now" but if the public goes into outright panic and we need Military/National Guard for every major city the medical guy doesn't have to deal with the repercussions.  

only outright morons(lnclude college students and teenagers in this group) think this is no big deal at all.  personally I don't think anyone on this thread thinks it is NO BIG DEAL AT ALL.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62230

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

At any rate, I'm just trying to objectively analyze the available evidence to see where we are and where we are going. Some take offense to that for some reason that I honestly don't understand. 

Well, then analyze the evidence. Projections aren’t evidence. You showed up 3-4 pages ago and stated, matter of fact, that bodies were going to be dropping like the entire country is west Baltimore to the tune of 10,000 a day by the 10th of April. You attempted to actually defend that position for a few posts afterward, and the only things you cited were static infographics and studies that had nothing to do with the real world at this point in time. 

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Moby Ric

Moby Ric 2058

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Not seeing Fauci the last 2 days is getting worrisome.

Guy has to sleep sometime.  He has been going full speed for days.  Frankly I am impressed that I see Trump, Pence at all these briefings.  It has to be exhausting.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Well, then analyze the evidence. Projections aren’t evidence. You showed up 3-4 pages ago and stated, matter of fact, that bodies were going to be dropping like the entire country is west Baltimore to the tune of 10,000 a day by the 10th of April. You attempted to actually defend that position for a few posts afterward, and the only things you cited were static infographics and studies that had nothing to do with the real world at this point in time. 

The growth rate isn't going to stop on a dime. if it continues to double every 3 days (as it has done), that is exactly where we will be. It all depends on the lag time. If it is only 2 weeks, we should start seeing dropping this week and maybe we keep it to a few hundred a day in the short term. If it is 4 weeks, we'll get to high 4 digits easily. It took Italy 4 weeks to start the downturn we see now. Maybe that isn't evidence to you, I don't know. But to me, it is a pretty relevant data point. 

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Jameslaw121

Jameslaw121 4445

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What, you don’t have Netflix? This would be fucking amazing if I could stick my kid in daycare. Binge a couple seasons. Read a couple books. 

I have a one year old and my wife is working from home (we have a home office that is pretty well sealed off from the rest of the house) - So I'm Mr Mom.It's not so bad, but I can tell that a week from now I'm going to go insane

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You can only have this debate if you're willing to honestly assess what will happen. Both the CDC and the Imperial College of London came up with similar numbers in terms of the spread of the illness and overall fatalities. If anything, the growing death rate in the US indicates they actually undervalued the speed at which this is spreading (Imperial College of London assumed a 5 day doubling period, but, based on deaths, we've seen a 3 day doubling period). I'm perfectly willing to admit that a nationwide shutdown (which we still haven't done) will have severe short term consequences to our economy. I really don't understand why you and others refuse to believe that allowing the virus to spread unconstrained would have resulted in the exact type of calamity predicated, i.e., a million plus dead. I'm not hysterical. But I'm also not leaving my head in the sand. You want to replace the judgment of experts with your own. That is just wishful thinking on your part and not an honest and objective assessment of the situation. 

So you see what’s happening and really think 10,000+ dead per day?  I don’t want you to just say that’s a trend, but that’s what you actually think is going to happen?

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msucolt45

msucolt45 3989

Posted
Posted

Bexar County (San Antonio) is about to go SiP. Effective midnight manana.

Groceries, gas stations, and etc. still available, but non-essential people stay at home! I’m in the not-essential group, so I feel like my impact is somewhat reduced. I guess I’ll just stay home with the fam, Bassett, and cats. Stay at home people!

Hook’em!

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1932

Posted
Posted

Well I was curious to know if social distancing in Austin is having an effect.  So I searched around to get daily case numbers reported by Austin and Travis County, then made a chart.  Here's what it looks like so far, an exponential increase would be just a straight line:

spacer.png

Hmmm, maybe a knee forming around March 20th, hard to tell.  If we break 100 cases today that's kinda bad, because it means we've gone up an order of magnitude in 8 days. 

"Stay at home" for us kicked in around March 13th, the day that Austin ISD cancelled school.  We are now eight days into it.  The curve should be starting to bend.

 

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't have that data on H1N1, but I'm sure it is out there somewhere. I don't think the CFR was ever anything like we are seeing with sars-cov-2. Actually, here is a 2009 article that says initial estimates were a .4% fatality rate (4x regular flu) before lowered substantially (.03%). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797432/

As to whether we think this is serious, beliefs appear to run the gamut. Some think it is not big deal at all and we are overreacting. Some think it is serious, but on the level of a 2x regular flu season type of serious. And yes, some probably believe it is the end of the world or some other nonsense. I think it is precisely as serious as I've seen from the actual experts: a potential 1 million to 2 million deaths (prior to our recent actions) + overwhelmed healthcare system serious. 

At any rate, I'm just trying to objectively analyze the available evidence to see where we are and where we are going. Some take offense to that for some reason that I honestly don't understand. 

Do you understand that 1% of confirmed cases is a completely useless number?  You need an all cases or a really good estimate to base anything off of it. You did this when the current number was around 3% too. Just taking what currently exists and making huge assumptions. 

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1590

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So not because we can contain it, but because Wall Street wants it. Jesus.

Separate the message from the messenger.  There is a cost-benefit analysis to be made AT SOME POINT.  Putting the economy into recession or depression will cost lives and wreck lives for years to come.  COVID-19 is also awful.  Which is worse?

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


Lots of people drive from Alaska to Florida?

No. Requiring self quarantine if you travel into the state from an area with infections. And for large portions of the state the only way in and out is through Anchorage and Seattle. 

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Hate

Hate 20103

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Separate the message from the messenger.  There is a cost-benefit analysis to be made AT SOME POINT.  Putting the economy into recession or depression will cost lives and wreck lives for years to come.  COVID-19 is also awful.  Which is worse?

Narrator:  He can't. 

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F250

F250 28682

Posted
Posted

Are there any plans to go South Korea style and do massive testing to identify hot zones in order to contain the spread?

I can't see how people will return to work in mass without the ability to identify high risk zones.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

Posted
Posted

 

13 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

So you see what’s happening and really think 10,000+ dead per day?  I don’t want you to just say that’s a trend, but that’s what you actually think is going to happen?

I've already said that. I think we easily get to a thousand plus a day. Whether we get to 10k just depends on how effective are actions were and what the lag time is.  The different between 1,000 and 10,000 a day is only 10 days. If it takes 4 weeks to show in the statistics like it did with Italy, we will get to 10k. 

 

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Do you understand that 1% of confirmed cases is a completely useless number?  You need an all cases or a really good estimate to base anything off of it. You did this when the current number was around 3% too. Just taking what currently exists and making huge assumptions. 

I'm wasn't citing the current confirmed cases number. I was citing the IFR estimates from the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and the Imperial College of London. All of them have said ~1% is our best estimate right now. Honestly, the CFR is largely irrelevant for short term predictions. I'm just looking at the growth rate. CFR only comes into play because it would dictate what percentage of the population is already exposed and how much longer we have until the disease has no where else to spread. Whatever the true IFR for the disease, I don't think we are near a saturation point yet. 

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F250

F250 28682

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

He is laying the foundation for re-opening, hopefully they have some inside info that hydroxychlorquine will work

This was some Charlie Strong "bake the cake" bullshit. Without any meaningful objectives and measurables the discussion on turning the economic switch back on is pointless.

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

I've already said that. I think we easily get to a thousand plus a day. Whether we get to 10k just depends on how effective are actions were and what the lag time is.  The different between 1,000 and 10,000 a day is only 10 days. If it takes 4 weeks to show in the statistics like it did with Italy, we will get to 10k. 

 

I'm wasn't citing the current confirmed cases number. I was citing the IFR estimates from the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and the Imperial College of London. All of them have said ~1% is our best estimate right now. Honestly, the CFR is largely irrelevant for short term predictions. I'm just looking at the growth rate. CFR only comes into play because it would dictate what percentage of the population is already exposed and how much longer we have until the disease has no where else to spread. Whatever the true IFR for the disease, I don't think we are near a saturation point yet. 

Now you’re just going in circles. Do you really think we’re going to be at 10,000 deaths per day by 4/2 or whatever date you threw out?  Or are you moving that target?

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1932

Posted
Posted

One more chart about testing.  I was curious to know what percentage of the population has been tested, and the positive test rate for each state.  My data is 2-3 days old and I accidently grabbed the 2010 state populations instead of the 2019 populations, so it's a little off, but here's what it looks like:

vfojZeb.jpg

The purple diamond is Washington, the red circle is New York, the green triangle is California and the orange square is Texas.

Texas is not testing much but also not seeing a big positive rate.  I would like to see us testing more but either they are not finding the positives or we have a low infection rate at the moment.  New York is having a huge outbreak even with a 20% positive rate.

You might want to avoid the four dots on the right (low test rate, high positive rate) ... New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio and Delaware.

The little dot with high testing rate but low positive rate (to the left of the red circle -- California) is New Mexico, a safe place to be.

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5521

Posted
Posted
Just now, Captainant said:

It's letting the states solve it for themselves. The free market is deciding who can afford the most medical staff

Same thing when they talk about bringing the Navy hospital ships Comfort and Mercy into New York and LA, those will be staffed by reservist and National Guard members who are called up from their local community. 
It's like a shell game, that will please the people where they go into and it sounds great to say to the media, but I'm going to wait and see how it plays out. Like all the medical supplies that are purportedly coming into the supply chain. 
I guess I've become a skeptic. 

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