Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Newdoc 3433]

4 minutes ago, F250 said:

So New York is poaching nurses from around the country?

 

I doubt the 10K per week unless running seven days of 12 hour shifts. Most are recruiting at up to $100 per hour which is still damn good money. I would consider that risk pay at this point.

[Eastwood 4394]

Almost sounds like a scam. Back when things were hot and heavy with oil in 2012-13, companies working in North Dakota during the winter would offer people $1,000 a day, 7 days a week, to do title work. Billing for that job is usually 4 -6 weeks out, so they'd let you bill 6 weeks worth of work, then cut you and send you home and then fight tooth and nail to not pay you.

[Captainant 27447]

Just now, F250 said:

So Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky are fucked?

I am abstaining from commenting on the consequences of the decisions of our nation's leaders, because I don't want to make CTJ become just J

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

Denver already relaxed its liquor and marijuana closures. Having lines that literally stretched blocks probably were worse for the spread of the virus than normal operations at those stores would have been. 

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

We're #3 now in cases?  We might pass China by the end of the week at this rate.

[Dahobbs 17444]

Just now, akhornfan said:

Now you’re just going in circles. Do you really think we’re going to be at 10,000 deaths per day by 4/2 or whatever date you threw out?  Or are you moving that target?

I said 4/10. I really don't understand what you're asking for. I don't feel 100% we get there. If I had to handicap, I'd guess I'd put it 60/40 that we get there. As I told you, it just takes a couple of days to get really big swings in the numbers and we don't know precisely when our actions last week will start showing up in the statistics. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3325]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

We're #3 now in cases?  We might pass China by the end of the week at this rate.

China is #1 by a mile unless you believe fake statistics

[Texas Jeff 1932]

50 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Not seeing Fauci the last 2 days is getting worrisome.

Fauci was on CNN and was asked about not being there every day.  He said they are trying to rotate people at the pressers because everyone has their normal role to play, it takes time to do them and he has duties at the NIH.  He said he was shuttling between the NIH and the White House a bunch and that he was working with the NIH folks on vaccine trials, that some days he just needed to be present at NIH to keep progress going.

He said he was fine and not to worry, but don't expect him to appear in the briefing room every day.

[F250 28682]

2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Almost sounds like a scam. Back when things were hot and heavy with oil in 2012-13, companies working in North Dakota during the winter would offer people $1,000 a day, 7 days a week, to do title work. Billing for that job is usually 4 -6 weeks out, so they'd let you bill 6 weeks worth of work, then cut you and send you home and then fight tooth and nail to not pay you.

This happens in DoD land too. I knew a guy who was contracted to do work for the Army. The dude ran into issues with his pay and raised concerns with the contracting company. A few weeks later he was arrested by Military Police and had his security clearance revoked.

[EuroHorn 3204]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I am abstaining from commenting on the consequences of the decisions of our nation's leaders, because I don't want to make CTJ become just J

Maybe you should abstain because there’s actually good and informative dialogue going on in this thread.  No need to fuck it up?

Edited March 23, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Dahobbs 17444]

8 minutes ago, F250 said:

So Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky are fucked?

What else is new?

[F250 28682]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

China is #1 by a mile unless you believe fake statistics

Our statistics are fake. Shit, other than South Korea nobody is tracking infections.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

24 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Separate the message from the messenger.  There is a cost-benefit analysis to be made AT SOME POINT.  Putting the economy into recession or depression will cost lives and wreck lives for years to come.  COVID-19 is also awful.  Which is worse?

It’s a tough decision for anyone willing to look at the big picture.

Having spent ample time with grandparents who lived through the Great Depression, I have a different perspective than many on this board. I don’t know if our country would ever reach that level of poverty again without a major disaster, but I can tell you that generation would say we must avoid letting it happen, at all costs.

However, those who want to merely rip off the bandaid don’t understand the amount of pain and blood loss which could potentially occur. There is a middle ground and it’s much trickier to navigate than we want to believe. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

China is #1 by a mile unless you believe fake statistics

Thank you. Does anyone really believe they're reporting accurate numbers ?

[The_Great_Hornsby 3325]

Just now, F250 said:

Our statistics are fake. Shit, other than South Korea nobody is tracking infections.

I hear you, but what we are missing would make our death rates go down due to the asymptomatic cases. China was not reporting deaths. Big difference. 

[Skipper 6103]

49 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

 

I have no doubt this is a goal.  And lord knows we're going to need to open it up eventually.  But I think the ugly headlines forthcoming out of New York during the next 2 weeks makes this timeline unrealistic (See Peter Attia video citing rapid increase in NYC Covid ICU patients last several days).  

[akhornfan 4]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I said 4/10. I really don't understand what you're asking for. I don't feel 100% we get there. If I had to handicap, I'd guess I'd put it 60/40 that we get there. As I told you, it just takes a couple of days to get really big swings in the numbers and we don't know precisely when our actions last week will start showing up in the statistics. 

That’s a really odd way to state a projection then and kind of the essence of the problem with the wild ass guesses. You say I think we’re going to be at 10,000 deaths per day, which is a pretty inflammatory number, and then defend it with the ‘why don’t you get this’ argument and then if called on it more then start walking it back. 
 

Whatever makes you happy I guess 

[MAUFRAIS 6573]

Just saw Fenves walking around, albeit alone. Is he allowed out of the house?

[Dbeasy 14966]

It’s a tough decision for anyone willing to look at the big picture.
Having spent ample time with grandparents who lived through the Great Depression, I have a different perspective than many on this board. I don’t know if our country would ever reach that level of poverty again without a major disaster, but I can tell you that generation would say we must avoid letting it happen, at all costs.
However, those who want to merely rip off the bandaid don’t understand the amount of pain and blood loss which could potentially occur. There is a middle ground and it’s much trickier to navigate than we want to believe. 

As the son of two Great Depression parents, one who had to leave his home and travel over 600 miles to live on a farm for several years, I can tell you their stories were not fun-filled adventures. More like hunger pangs and sadness.

[Captainant 27447]

1 minute ago, EuroHorn said:

Maybe you should abstain because there’s actually good and informative dialogue going on in this thread.  No need to fuck it up?

I'd say it's pretty goddamn salient to an informative dialogue to consider the study that the president is basing his miracle claims off of. 

In that study, they had 26 subjects, of which 16 recieved ongoing treatment, and of that group 6 also recieved a z-pak, and they all were soon clear of virus in their respiratory system and generally non contagious.

Those results are remarkable, but the sample size is too small, and the results have not yet been tested and repeated. It's literally bad science to draw a conclusion from that result. 

What is wrong with stating that objective fact, and that we shouldn't be hailing an untested treatment as the savior of us all? Especially when there are already cases of people acting in an unsafe manner because of the false confidence in an untested treatment?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Worldometers says 132 US deaths and 1point3acres says 88

[Macanudo 12926]

Have family in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News area) and their school district (Chesapeake) has called school for the year.  Chesapeake is the 3rd largest city in Virginia.

[naija 2854]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Have family in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News area) and their school district (Chesapeake) has called school for the year.  Chesapeake is the 3rd largest city in Virginia.

was told it's the entire state

[InkaUtexas 25508]

1 minute ago, naija said:

was told it's the entire state

Yes. Confirmed with Virginia based client today. 

[Loco 3752]

Submitted for your enjoyment 

 

 

[Dewey 3280]

Galveston county goes into shelter in place tomorrow night, theres talk of sending the visitors home and closing the causeway. 

[The Dog 43802]

Just saw Fenves walking around, albeit alone. Is he allowed out of the house?

If he’s going to fire Shaka then it’s ok.

[naija 2854]

if your model is giving you 10,000-50,000 deaths daily, you have to step away from it and consider what it might be missing.

the best way to use a model is to continually revise it with new data and re-model. the fact that some of the pictures and charts floating around look like "copy and paste" items from when the term "flatten the curve" first became popular suggests that might not be going on, or more likely the real work is getting drowned out by the mass amplification of twitter. 

[The Dog 43802]

BTW liquor is sold in grocery stores in most states so closing liquor stores is no big deal.

[F250 28682]

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I have no doubt this is a goal.  And lord knows we're going to need to open it up eventually.  But I think the ugly headlines forthcoming out of New York during the next 2 weeks makes this timeline unrealistic (See Peter Attia video citing rapid increase in NYC Covid ICU patients last several days).  

Agree, with or without a government shutdown order people are going to freak the fuck out once the death count starts to spike and businesses will be impacted. Economics is essentially the study of human behavior, there is no reason to think people will behave normally if the economy is "opened up" while shit is hitting the fan.

 

[SydneyCarton 47874]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

BTW liquor is sold in grocery stores in most states so closing liquor stores is no big deal.

But it isn’t in Texas. And, you know, we matter more than anyone else. 

[Hmbre97 6297]

 
https://images.app.goo.gl/EyRsghKpxfgK1BAu9

Ok, this one made me laugh

[Macanudo 12926]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

BTW liquor is sold in grocery stores in most states so closing liquor stores is no big deal.

Most?  Not in fucking Texas.  That's all I care about.

Is it too late to source parts for a still?  I'm not above making my own moonshine.

[Armybrat 40735]

Made a quick run to HEB. Mrs.Brat went in with her mask & gloves - she knows where everything is- spent 15 minutes getting a bunch of stuff, canned goods, 2 hams, 5 lb roll of hamburger, sausage, V8 juice, Cranberry juice, etc.

I saw a mom & dad go in the store with five small kids (baby up to 6) like it was a lark, with the kids running around.

she said store was not crowded and everyone was SDing.

wiped everything down in the garage before bringing it into the house. She is showering (definitely no pics) and will wash our clothes. wiped car seat interior too. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

I'd say it's pretty goddamn salient to an informative dialogue to consider the study that the president is basing his miracle claims off of. 
In that study, they had 26 subjects, of which 16 recieved ongoing treatment, and of that group 6 also recieved a z-pak, and they all were soon clear of virus in their respiratory system and generally non contagious.
Those results are remarkable, but the sample size is too small, and the results have not yet been tested and repeated. It's literally bad science to draw a conclusion from that result. 
What is wrong with stating that objective fact, and that we shouldn't be hailing an untested treatment as the savior of us all? Especially when there are already cases of people acting in an unsafe manner because of the false confidence in an untested treatment?

Seems like if NYC is the new hotbed, we should start some trials here with the hispitalized.

[Lurch 5921]

Submitted for your enjoyment 
 
 

Damn! Poor Jennifer. She’s just going to go lick some handrails and get this over with.

[Captainant 27447]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

21 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I'd say it's pretty goddamn salient to an informative dialogue to consider the study that the president is basing his miracle claims off of. 
In that study, they had 26 subjects, of which 16 recieved ongoing treatment, and of that group 6 also recieved a z-pak, and they all were soon clear of virus in their respiratory system and generally non contagious.
Those results are remarkable, but the sample size is too small, and the results have not yet been tested and repeated. It's literally bad science to draw a conclusion from that result. 
What is wrong with stating that objective fact, and that we shouldn't be hailing an untested treatment as the savior of us all? Especially when there are already cases of people acting in an unsafe manner because of the false confidence in an untested treatment?

Read more  

Seems like if NYC is the new hotbed, we should start some trials here with the hispitalized.

1000% agree. We've got an ample selection of trial candidates, and it could really make a difference if the results are as great as the first group. 

[The Dog 43802]

But it isn’t in Texas. And, you know, we matter more than anyone else. 

And if Abbott closes em we will riot

[Skipper 6103]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

Agree, with or without a government shutdown order people are going to freak the fuck out once the death count starts to spike and businesses will be impacted. Economics is essentially the study of human behavior, there is no reason to think people will behave normally if the economy is "opened up" while shit is hitting the fan.

 

Why I'm sticking with at or around 4/20 to slowly start opening things back up.   If we are successfully flattening the curve, that may be the earliest we get good data trends over a period of days + hopefully have successfully ramped up production of PPE, testing, etc.  And it could be earlier in some places and later in others.   If you have a city that has an elite testing infrastructure that never shows a trend line on pace to overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure then maybe that city can open things up earlier.   I think we all are really going to have to start thinking about this on a city by city basis. 

[G650 14104]

56 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

3 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

In Italy they're essential, judging by the fact that they're open. Also, you can buy hard  liquor at the grocery store.

They are deemed essential in NY.

Virginia too. As is construction, thankfully.

[Hagbard Celine 10756]

The following is a completely unscientific wild-ass guess.  Just a gut feel.

Italy has been clipping along at 600ish+ dead per day for 10 days.  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same (and we know they are not but we don't know which are and are not).  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same it is entirely conceivable that with 5x the population we could see 3000 dying per day for some number of days at our peak, which could be for 10-14 days, in 10-14 days time, if we are 10-14 days behind Italy.  A 9/11 every day.  In 2019 we had 38,800 auto fatalties, 106 per day, spread throughout the year.  In the 2018-2019 flu season we had 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths, 94 per day, but 90% of the deaths occurred during 100 days in the depth of winter, so let's say the average clip at the peak was 308 per day ((34200 * .9)/100).  I believe in the law of averages so i'm calling my shot.

(106 + 308 + 3000)/3 = 1138

I believe that during the peak, whatever it is, we are going to see ~1138 dead per day, for 10-14 days, assuming none of the anti-virals squash the pneumonia (dying) phase.

Thus, I think the over/under is 2x Italy.

[EuroHorn 3204]

Just now, G650 said:

Virginia too. As is construction, thankfully.

Every construction site in Atlanta is still business as usual even though all businesses are work from home. 

[EuroHorn 3204]

18 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

The following is a completely unscientific wild-ass guess.  Just a gut feel.

Italy has been clipping along at 600ish+ dead per day for 10 days.  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same (and we know they are not but we don't know which are and are not).  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same it is entirely conceivable that with 5x the population we could see 3000 dying per day for some number of days at our peak, which could be for 10-14 days, in 10-14 days time, if we are 10-14 days behind Italy.  A 9/11 every day.  In 2019 we had 38,800 auto fatalties, 106 per day, spread throughout the year.  In the 2018-2019 flu season we had 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths, 94 per day, but 90% of the deaths occurred during 100 days in the depth of winter, so let's say the average clip at the peak was 308 per day ((34200 * .9)/100).  I believe in the law of averages so i'm calling my shot.

(106 + 308 + 3000)/3 = 1138

I believe that during the peak, whatever it is, we are going to see ~1138 dead per day, for 10-14 days, assuming none of the anti-virals squash the pneumonia (dying) phase.

Thus, I think the over/under is 2x Italy.

Like I mentioned before, Italy has direct links to Wuhan. They have (or had) daily non-stop flights to Wuhan. And there’s about 300,000 Chinese now living in the country and working primarily in the garment industry. 
 

Also, not sure why we think we’re lagging Italy. My guess is that this virus was already widely spread in the US back in January.  We have non-stops from Wuhan to JFK and SFO

Edited March 24, 2020 by EuroHorn

[G650 14104]

29 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Have family in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News area) and their school district (Chesapeake) has called school for the year.  Chesapeake is the 3rd largest city in Virginia.

It's the whole state, not just Chesapeake. I'm in Virginia Beach btw, which I think some on here were aware.

Edited March 24, 2020 by G650

[BillyGoatHill 4276]

54 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

you're

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

I’m calling it.  No way the US will have more than about 350 million infected. Book it. 

[SHOOTER12 8789]

1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

Idk if I’m essential guess I will find out tomorrow morning

What do you do?

[closetojumping 62231]

 

56 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

From a nurse buddy




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So you’re posting something that says some place in this country is willing to pay non-certified, new to local healthcare system nurses a run rate of $520,000 annual salary and it didn’t cross your mind, even vaguely, that it was completely and utter bullshit? If you are actually working on people in the healthcare system in Houston, I’m moving out of the area and burning every healthcare facility to the ground on my way out of town, just to spare society from your future. 

You are the exact problem with what is going on right now. Just pure, reactionary idiocy, completely devoid of deploying any logic or reason to anything they’re hearing. Every rumor is a fact, and it must be passed on immediately!

You fucking sped. 

[akhornfan 4]

35 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Worldometers says 132 US deaths and 1point3acres says 88

GMT issues with lining up the days 

[Lurch 5921]

The following is a completely unscientific wild-ass guess.  Just a gut feel.
Italy has been clipping along at 600ish+ dead per day for 10 days.  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same (and we know they are not but we don't know which are and are not).  *IF* all of the intangibles are the same it is entirely conceivable that with 5x the population we could see 3000 dying per day for some number of days at our peak, which could be for 10-14 days, in 10-14 days time, if we are 10-14 days behind Italy.  A 9/11 every day.  In 2019 we had 38,800 auto fatalties, 106 per day, spread throughout the year.  In the 2018-2019 flu season we had 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths, 94 per day, but 90% of the deaths occurred during 100 days in the depth of winter, so let's say the average clip at the peak was 308 per day ((34200 * .9)/100).  I believe in the law of averages so i'm calling my shot.
(106 + 308 + 3000)/3 = 1138
I believe that during the peak, whatever it is, we are going to see ~1138 dead per day, for 10-14 days, assuming none of the anti-virals squash the pneumonia (dying) phase.
Thus, I think the over/under is 2x Italy.

Read March 20 note. They think peak is still 10 days away in Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/