Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Guest Lobo]

Is that WHO stat true, U.S. up 247% as of recent...well above every other nation?  How is that possible?  

[BurntOrange&White 41943]

Every construction site in Atlanta is still business as usual even though all businesses are work from home. 

Why is new construction, road construction, etc business as usual if they’re not building hospitals and etc?


Like road projects have been going on for 2-5 years places so what is shutting that type of construction going to hurt in the grand scheme of things?

[EuroHorn 3295]

29 minutes ago, Skipper said:

What the fuck is your point dude.  If you are trying to argue the only reason there is a mass recent increase in NY ICU admissions is because we are testing, not because a shit load of people are getting seriously ill as a result of the massive Covid Cluster in NYC, then you need a lot more than -16 neg rep.  This shit wasn't widespread in any US location in January.  Period.  There is not not a single competent medical source that thinks that is plausible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html
 

This article was published back on March 1 as it related to Washington state   

and with non-stop flights to JFK from Wuhan I’m not surprised NYC is getting hit hard  

 

Quote

Heather Thomas, a spokeswoman for the Snohomish Health District, said in a statement that the district was aware of the preliminary findings suggesting that coronavirus had been spreading for close to six weeks.

She said that it was important to remember that national testing capabilities have only been available for about six weeks, and in Washington, health personnel have only had the ability to test locally for a few days. “It is definitely possible that Covid-19 has been circulating, with people experiencing mild symptoms just like the flu,’’ she said.

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by EuroHorn

[BurntOrange&White 41943]

What do you do?

Maintenance supervisor at a facility that bends and fabricates rebar.

[EuroHorn 3295]

1 minute ago, Bevo VIII said:

Why is new construction, road construction, etc business as usual if they’re not building hospitals and etc?


Like road projects have been going on for 2-5 years places so what is shutting that type of construction going to hurt in the grand scheme of things?

Construction where I live is primarily office buildings, city apartments, hotels, etc. 

[triplehorn 2664]

9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm not a doctor.  Maybe one can weigh in.  Maybe that's plausible for hospital admission generally.  I wouldn't think a huge factor but maybe.  But I can't think whether or not you are confirmed covid positive matters if your health has deteriorated to the point of being admitted to ICU.  If you need a ventilator you need a ventilator.

Right, hospitalization is a function of clinical condition that dictates the need for a higher level of care, irrespective of positive tests or diagnosis. 

 

Global numbers:

67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases

11 days for the second 100,000 cases,

4 days for the third 100,000 cases.

[BradInATX 9208]

55 minutes ago, Parliament said:

My sister (no pics) works for one of the big hospitals in Columbus. She says they're cutting people's hours for lack of patients. That's gonna change of course but it's good to know they're in a good place at the beginning.

What does she do there? A couple of hospitals in Austin are cutting hours in certain departments, or looking into it because elective surgeries are all being shut down; primarily because of supply chain issues. Lack of cases could be as simple as they don't have supplies to run surgeries. Not PPE/masks/etc., basic other stuff that's sourced in China or overseas. The example I was given was drapes that go over surgery tables. I'm no hospital scientist, maybe ChiTown can shine some light on this. But it doesn't really mean anything re:COVID, one way or another.

I hear if she goes to New York she can make $10,000/week though. I also just heard that the Houston Rodeo is canceled. RIP.

Edited March 24, 2020 by BradInATX

[Armybrat 41421]

2 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

Maintenance supervisor at a facility that bends and fabricates rebar.

Bet your avatar could bend rebar with dat ass.

[BurntOrange&White 41943]

Bet your avatar could bend rebar with dat ass.

We could bend your dick back upwards so Mrs Brat would be happy again.

[Armybrat 41421]

Just now, Bevo VIII said:

We could bend your dick back upwards so Mrs Brat would be happy again.

That would just annoy her even more.

[Skipper 6412]

5 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You don’t need a doctor, just use your head. They’re for sure being more careful with confirmed cases. 

If you say so.  With rapidly declining available ICU beds I'm willing to bet they aren't giving them away if not needed just because someone is Covid confirmed.  But let's even give you that benefit of the doubt, when deaths start increasing over the next week will that just be because they started testing as well?   I'm still not understanding what you are even getting at. NYC headlines are to get ugly the next 1-2 weeks and it's not going to have anything to do with the fact that testing ramped up.

[Skipper 6412]

6 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html
 

This article was published back on March 1

and with non-stop flights to JFK from Wuhan I’m not surprised NYC is getting hit hard  

 

 

Was it 'circulating' in January?  Sure, almost certainly.  Was it "Widespread"?  Maybe you and I have definitions of widespread.  It's widespread in NYC right now.  It was not in January. I'm talking about 1/2 of Surly and random people I talk to that are now convinced whatever virus with respiratory distress they had in early January was probably this.  Even today, if you wake up with a fever tomorrow it is much, much more likely it's something else and not COVID.

[EuroHorn 3295]

Just now, Skipper said:

Was it 'circulating' in January?  Sure, almost certainly.  Was it "Widespread"?  Maybe you and I have definitions of widespread.  It's widespread in NYC right now.  It was not in January. I'm talking about 1/2 of Surly and random people I talk to that are now convinced whatever virus with respiratory distress they had in early January was probably this.  Even today, if you wake up with a fever tomorrow it is much, much more likely it's something else and not COVID.

Ok widespread circulating 

[Hate 20250]

44 minutes ago, F250 said:

I had a call with some of my people in Bangalore this morning to discuss C-19. There wasn't much to discuss as everyone on the call is already Work From Home staff. They described the situation over there being pretty similar to our SiP process except they will have road closures. It was interesting to hear their concerns and complaints which pretty much sounded like ours. People worried about elderly parents, lack of testing, ventilators, masks and flattening the curve.

As to internet connectivity, the tech hub cities should be fine as far as that is concerned. The internets is serious business over there.

 

 

 

 

I'm sure India will be fine.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Hate

[Bevo 13900]

13 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

Why is new construction, road construction, etc business as usual if they’re not building hospitals and etc?


Like road projects have been going on for 2-5 years places so what is shutting that type of construction going to hurt in the grand scheme of things?

I agree with this. You tell dermatologists and ENT that their work is elective unless they are treating cancer and in the same breath tell construction workers building a strip mall in Florence, TX that they are essential. If the goal is to not congregate in groups and to keep people isolated, then do it. 

[Mother mopar 3387]

Im in hydraulics.

FIFY

[Pato del Muerto 53548]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I agree with this. You tell dermatologists and ENT that their work is elective unless they are treating cancer and in the same breath tell construction workers building a strip mall in Florence, TX that they are essential. If the goal is to not congregate in groups and to keep people isolated, then do it. 

Just read that the texas folks are saying abortions are elective and must cease.  Just something my wife flashed in my face on her phone so I cant link it or verify th at its not some wingnut blog, but if so that will be a fight.  But I doubt we can discuss the medical necessity here, so I’ll probably regret typing the word.  I suggest anyone wanting to argue that topic do so elsewhere, and I will not be joining. 

[closetojumping 65467]

22 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Is that WHO stat true, U.S. up 247% as of recent...well above every other nation?  How is that possible?  

This is going to pain you to hear, so apologies in advance. We finally ramped up testing and have fully disclosed whatever we found. All of that has happened in a matter of days. In an open society, while fuck-ups may happen with regularity, they’re also usually visible to everyone both when they happen and when they’re fixed. 

Also, we’re the third largest nation by both population and size. We’re also heavily trafficked by foreign tourists, government officials and businesspeople. The notion that we weren’t deeply infected ahead of the testing is absurd. It probably won’t level off on the discovery of infected cases for another month. 

None of the run-up in data regarding infected cases matters in terms of real time. It’s catch-up. Deaths are a different thing. 

 

[closetojumping 65467]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just read that the texas folks are saying abortions are elective and must cease.  Just something my wife flashed in my face on her phone so I cant link it or verify th at its not some wingnut blog, but if so that will be a fight.  But I doubt we can discuss the medical necessity here, so I’ll probably regret typing the word.  I suggest anyone wanting to argue that topic do so elsewhere, and I will not be joining. 

Ha. So you light the fire in a fireworks factory and then whistle walking out the front door saying “good seeing everybody. call me if you need anything!”. Well done, sir.

 

[Bevo 13900]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Was it 'circulating' in January?  Sure, almost certainly.  Was it "Widespread"?  Maybe you and I have definitions of widespread.  It's widespread in NYC right now.  It was not in January. I'm talking about 1/2 of Surly and random people I talk to that are now convinced whatever virus with respiratory distress they had in early January was probably this.  Even today, if you wake up with a fever tomorrow it is much, much more likely it's something else and not COVID.

Maybe, Maybe not, Maybe fuck yourself. I had about half the symptoms about 3 weeks ago. Diarrhea, sore throat, and headache for a few days followed by weakness and temperature for about a day which dissipated but left a little asthma. I felt better and road my bike over the next weekend. But the asthma returned and stayed with me. It is most likely from riding 35 mi during allergy season, cutting the lawn, and then having a drink before bed. But, I've never had asthma that has kind of lingered like this. If I had to guess, I would say that I had something other than COVID-19 and the lingering stuff is just allergies. But, how would I know. The exact same symptoms have other people convinced that they have the virus. It would be nice to know where I stand. Did I have the virus? Am I recovered? Am I contagious? It is kind of hard to act without knowing some basic facts.

[Pato del Muerto 53548]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Ha. So you light the fire in a fireworks factory and then whistle walking out the front door saying “good seeing everybody. call me if you need anything!”. Well done, sir.

 

Pretty much. Enjoy the show I guess. 
also, I appreciate the level of coolness your analogy adds. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Macanudo 13328]

 

 

1 hour ago, Modessit said:

A friend's husband is a GM at a grocery store in the greater Austin area (a suburb). She was freaking out about the SIP order and he showed her this letter he got last week:




Another friend has a son who works for Target and they gave him a similar letter this past weekend.

A lot of my fellow Amazon and gig-food delivery peeps are wondering if we'll need a similar letter before too long.

 

So this "letter" doesnt cover Kroger and its affiliates like King Sooper, Fred Meyer and Harris Teeter?

[BillyGoatHill 4421]

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

 

I'm sure India will be fine.

Mine is de black wire.....over there!  No! Not that one! The other black wire!

[Hate 20250]

10 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Was it 'circulating' in January?  Sure, almost certainly.  Was it "Widespread"?  Maybe you and I have definitions of widespread.  It's widespread in NYC right now.  It was not in January. I'm talking about 1/2 of Surly and random people I talk to that are now convinced whatever virus with respiratory distress they had in early January was probably this.  Even today, if you wake up with a fever tomorrow it is much, much more likely it's something else and not COVID.

How could anyone ever possibly know?  The presumptive "patient zero" in the US was identified as testing positive on January 20 and had been back from Wuhan for 5 days before that. The virus was going around Wuhan by the middle of November.  Given the amount of international travelers in and out of Wuhan for the 2 months prior to the first positive test, it's virtually possible that he was actually patient zero and it wasn't spreading earlier.  Maybe the other people that were asymptomatic but contagious had the less severe strain?  I don't know, but this virus was here and spreading unknown before January 20.

[dcar00 14980]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just read that the texas folks are saying abortions are elective and must cease.  Just something my wife flashed in my face on her phone so I cant link it or verify th at its not some wingnut blog, but if so that will be a fight.  But I doubt we can discuss the medical necessity here, so I’ll probably regret typing the word.  I suggest anyone wanting to argue that topic do so elsewhere, and I will not be joining. 

"and then I said 'hey honey, abortions are always elective'"....I'll see myself out

[BurntOrange&White 41943]

[atomheartbevo 90663]

4 hours ago, F250 said:

Morally lose women?

 

Armybrat:  I’m more of a Louise Brooks or Clara Bow kind of guy.  

[atomheartbevo 90663]

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

That would be Dr. Birx, one of the medical experts leading the COVID-19 task force.

Or “a future IMDB entry for Renee Zellweger”

[Hagbard Celine 11272]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Maybe, Maybe not, Maybe fuck yourself. I had about half the symptoms about 3 weeks ago. Diarrhea, sore throat, and headache for a few days followed by weakness and temperature for about a day which dissipated but left a little asthma. I felt better and road my bike over the next weekend. But the asthma returned and stayed with me. It is most likely from riding 35 mi during allergy season, cutting the lawn, and then having a drink before bed. But, I've never had asthma that has kind of lingered like this. If I had to guess, I would say that I had something other than COVID-19 and the lingering stuff is just allergies. But, how would I know. The exact same symptoms have other people convinced that they have the virus. It would be nice to know where I stand. Did I have the virus? Am I recovered? Am I contagious? It is kind of hard to act without knowing some basic facts.

And good luck finding out how to get tested.  I just reviewed the google site.  Worthless.  Texas is not even on the list.  "Call your doctor".  "Call the CDC".  We can't even have a national registry of people who want to put their name on a list as possibly infected.

[EuroHorn 3295]

Just now, Hate said:

How could anyone ever possibly know?  The presumptive "patient zero" in the US was identified as testing positive on January 20 and had been back from Wuhan for 5 days before that. The virus was going around Wuhan by the middle of November.  Given the amount of international travelers in and out of Wuhan for the 2 months prior to the first positive test, it's virtually possible that he was actually patient zero and it wasn't spreading earlier.  Maybe the other people that were asymptomatic but contagious had the less severe strain?  I don't know, but this virus was here and spreading unknown before January 20.

Exactly.  We had non stop flights from Wuhan to JFK and SFO in January including lots of other flights from mainland China .  No way the virus was a no show  on those flights. 

[Guest Lobo]

16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is going to pain you to hear, so apologies in advance. We finally ramped up testing and have fully disclosed whatever we found. All of that has happened in a matter of days. In an open society, while fuck-ups may happen with regularity, they’re also usually visible to everyone both when they happen and when they’re fixed. 

Also, we’re the third largest nation by both population and size. We’re also heavily trafficked by foreign tourists, government officials and businesspeople. The notion that we weren’t deeply infected ahead of the testing is absurd. It probably won’t level off on the discovery of infected cases for another month. 

None of the run-up in data regarding infected cases matters in terms of real time. It’s catch-up. Deaths are a different thing. 

 

The only thing that pains me to hear is it you were somehow and very bizarrely associated with the University which I teach.   It is literally impossible that you were this stupid.  

[atomheartbevo 90663]

4 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

I'm also half surprised that the chloroquine thing hasn't caused a run on good 'ol quinine tonic water, from people who don't chemistry good

And....Alex Jones just figured out how he can buy his Westlake house back.   

[Anastasis 23723]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

And good luck finding out how to get tested.  I just reviewed the google site.  Worthless.  Texas is not even on the list.  "Call your doctor".  "Call the CDC".  We can't even have a national registry of people who want to put their name on a list as possibly infected.

I tried to find some clear direction on testing in SA and its a total shit show. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19307]

2 hours ago, Skipper said:

Why I'm sticking with at or around 4/20 to slowly start opening things back up.   If we are successfully flattening the curve, that may be the earliest we get good data trends over a period of days + hopefully have successfully ramped up production of PPE, testing, etc.  And it could be earlier in some places and later in others.   If you have a city that has an elite testing infrastructure that never shows a trend line on pace to overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure then maybe that city can open things up earlier.   I think we all are really going to have to start thinking about this on a city by city basis. 

I was thinking opening back up around May 1, but I agree with you.  There will still be a measure of social distancing, but yeah.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19307]

2 hours ago, Skipper said:

Why I'm sticking with at or around 4/20 to slowly start opening things back up.   If we are successfully flattening the curve, that may be the earliest we get good data trends over a period of days + hopefully have successfully ramped up production of PPE, testing, etc.  And it could be earlier in some places and later in others.   If you have a city that has an elite testing infrastructure that never shows a trend line on pace to overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure then maybe that city can open things up earlier.   I think we all are really going to have to start thinking about this on a city by city basis. 

Double post.

FYI, NY testing 16k a day now.

Edited March 24, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[DallasGatr 216]

Ok, I’m deemed “essential”. And I flew on AA DFW-SoCal last Monday night (and back Thursday.) It was really light as far as DFW -anything goes. No wait getting a drink at the club, very light flight (maybe 1/3 full.) Compare that tonight, the C terminal club may be had 10 folks in it at 8pm and it closed 1 hour early. But between that flight and the return, nothing really stupid light.

 

But the vicious rumor circulating thru out the Admirals club EMPLOYEES was that AA was SHUTTING down Wednesday! As the Poo-Ba at the club told me minutes ago, you better find another way home.

 

Could be a vicious rumor but considering there are 11 open seats in first to SOCAL this flight is historically empty. So I don’t doubt that rumor.

 

The good news is that folks are taking this seriously. (Unlike Milan when I was there in late JAN and the mayor was encouraging locals to make out with Chinese peeps.)

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

Might be interesting to see deaths vs last year in NY and the US.

How many deaths are ‘incremental’ for lack of a better term.

Factor in population growth and tell us if more people are dying, or whether people are just dying from something different, or not.

 

Is that a crazy POV?

It’s not crazy.  Actuaries and the like will need to assess all of this with the help of doctors.  Right now isn’t the time but not a crazy thought at all.  

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Listen, it is not a crazy point of view. Problem is, it has no fucking place on this thread. This is the thread where we extrapolate numbers without caveat until all of us are presumed dead ...  from COVID19, sir. 

Haha, CTJ kind of nails it.  My thing is being overly cautious is probably the best move but I agree with you on some of the extrapolations being pretty over the top.  
 

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  

[F250 29203]

27 minutes ago, Hate said:

 

I'm sure India will be fine.

A long time ago I used to work for a now defunct telecom company that had data centers in India. One day I pulled up the status of the different DC's which also showed the regional weather. Mumbai's weather was listed as very smoky. Mind blown. Shit is definitely different over there.

 

 

[staboner 5090]

checking in here

good. people arguing on the semantics of what widespread could mean. 

ya'll be good now. whatever day this is for you - it will pass. happy dealing with all this. 

we will shift this to no nuke tuesday. i had a no nuke monday myself - hope you do too. 

[Hate 20250]

I'm still going with the middle of April as far as some businesses returning at least skeleton crews.  Maybe they have a process where everyone checks their temperature a few times a day?  Maybe special "time off" is given to anyone with a fever until they've been able to be tested?  I don't know exactly what it will look like, but I think we are 3 weeks away from trying to restore our new normal. 

[atomheartbevo 90663]

4 hours ago, F250 said:

Just turned on the press conference.

Pence just referenced a 15 day timeline. Was that 15 days from today?

It started on March 16:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/15-days-slow-spread/

[StruggleBus 3922]

This whole thing is fucking retarded 

[Rockwell Torrey 1386]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

You paid $10,000 a week to import some poon?

Even Rocko is impressed.

Dude, RayDog parlayed that into a legion of poon in Angeles City.

[atomheartbevo 90663]

3 hours ago, F250 said:

So Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky are fucked?

Nah, they like to keep things in the family.   

[Hagbard Celine 11272]

1 minute ago, Rockwell Torrey said:

Dude, RayDog parlayed that into a legion of poon in Angeles City.

RayDog has said that $20 gets you a test drive, but then you move to $100 a week for family support.  Or something like that.

Now, we also know that RayDog has ceased fucking random women that he passes on the street, so his annual budget for girlfriends is approximately $5k.  So for $10k he gets one girlfriend (or multiple girlfriends one at a time) for 2 years.

That is not a legion of poon.

[dcar00 14980]

10 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

This whole thing is fucking retarded 

welcome to the Surl...you will fit right in!

[staboner 5090]

11 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

This whole thing is fucking retarded 

can we make this the new slogan for a bit bobs?

[Message Board User 12408]

 

[naija 3064]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Other than it being an uncomfortably large number, what basis do you have for that? What were the CDC and the Imperial College of London wrong about? Isn't the evidence plentiful at this point that double period for this outbreak is largely between 3 and 5 days absent serious societal intervention? Do you dispute that it'll take some time for our closures last week to show up in the statistics? What new data has come out that would challenge any of those assumptions? Seriously, I want a reason to believe you. 

they weren't wrong. at the time that it was modeled, sure it was bang on correct. get 2 weeks of data and effects of new measures and treatments and run again. impossible to have accounted for all of them at the first go around.

could still end up with those same numbers, but the model can't be static.

I don't think the "shutdown" measures have been as great as some are making them out to be.

Edited March 24, 2020 by naija

[BillyGoatHill 4421]

35 minutes ago, Hate said:

How could anyone ever possibly know?  The presumptive "patient zero" in the US was identified as testing positive on January 20 and had been back from Wuhan for 5 days before that. The virus was going around Wuhan by the middle of November.  Given the amount of international travelers in and out of Wuhan for the 2 months prior to the first positive test, it's virtually possible that he was actually patient zero and it wasn't spreading earlier.  Maybe the other people that were asymptomatic but contagious had the less severe strain?  I don't know, but this virus was here and spreading unknown before January 20.

☝️This. Especially through the Poker rooms here in ATX. It was a hacking/coughing scene through January and February and it wasn't from the cedar. Many complained of a respiratory ailment that was more than the flu and very painful. 

Oh, and if you play cards, you know that card rooms are full of our eastern friends. No CR/No racist but plenty of players talked about how they were back and forth from China over the holidays. 

edit: Please don't ban the poker rooms.

Edited March 24, 2020 by BillyGoatHill