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InkaUtexas

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squeegeedegg

squeegeedegg 730

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
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Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

There aren’t going to be 64,000 dead by Easter. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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5 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

If that’s your viewpoint you should participate in the corona challenge as long as you aren’t in NYC. Get in on the early fun and get it over with. 

Or hell- we could systematically infect people from easiest to cure to build up herd immunity. Do it on a schedule and then you are released back to life as it was before as a super human impervious to the corona. 

Obviously this is tongue in cheek but 1) the later you get it the more likely to have capacity (cranking out beds and equipment) and 2) even when we “open back up” there still won’t be huge crowds and gatherings Id bet. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8983

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Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

Today’s death is down 70 from yesterday. Worldometer is about to reset due to GMT

 

One point 3 acres (CDT)has us at a 4 day double until today’s low count which is at 85 less deaths than yesterday

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2337

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I havent picked my nose all day. Never in my life would I think picking my nose could be a matter of life and death. Like Im prepping for surgery....

 

Just spent 10 minutes taking Chic filet out of the bag and their containers, putting them on a pan in the oven on 170 for 5 minutes, then putting them on the table for us to eat. This is our second meal out since we locked down 4 weeks ago. Dystopian world


I go to my infusion pharmacy every day where half the staff is work from home. We all wear our "at home" masks in our processing room and it has lessened anxiety tremendously since we have to mix our meds for patients daily, including chemo, TPN etc.

 

Traffic at 8am and 530pm in Dallas now is like Kramer and his 2 lane comfort cruise

dWfHAv7YHPS4-6YzaeQghH3LS0aiWeCy3UgvFIAH

 

 

When I get home I go in to the garage where I strip down, put my clothes in the dryer and immediately shower.

 

My wife and I and our son all are in separate rooms until this is over.

 

 

My 8 yo boy has autism so we cant get sick.

 

 

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Today’s death is down 70 from yesterday. Worldometer is about to reset due to GMT

 

One point 3 acres (CDT)has us at a 4 day double until today’s low count which is at 85 less deaths than yesterday

Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. 
 

they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.

Edited by akhornfan
Adding NY
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naija

naija 3063

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30 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

I think you are overestimating just how well people are doing with various stay at home/stay indoors orders. You are definitely on one side of the curve

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18320

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12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Some of us have wondered when we'll get over the hump. Ohio thinks they'll get there in mid-April.
 

If the rest of the country is on Ohio's "good" curve, we are talking 60x our current daily rate. That... doesn't sound great. Unless that chart is supposed to be nationwide and we are missing something that says "per 100 million population" or something like?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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2 minutes ago, naija said:

I think you are overestimating just how well people are doing with various stay at home/stay indoors orders. You are definitely on one side of the curve

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8983

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Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. 
 
they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.

Looks like they added NYs evening update which put them from 19 to 100(+81)before the reset


So we pretty much matched yesterday’s death count...went up in by 2500 in cases
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Baboontyme

Baboontyme 2883

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11 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

 

Just spent 10 minutes taking Chic filet out of the bag and their containers, putting them on a pan in the oven on 170 for 5 minutes, then putting them on the table for us to eat. This is our second meal out since we locked down 4 weeks ago. Dystopian world

 

I applaud your efforts but I don't think you did that right. The surface of the food needs to reach 160+ if you're concerned about it being on the surface of your food. 

I've ordered take out a few times and I'm careful with the packaging but that's as far as I go with it. I'm not about to nuke my sushi. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26881

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

Had this talk with my friend over dinner tonight. She is deemed essential and her fear is no matter how careful she is, her interaction with the public, many of them elderly, will cause her to get someone sick. I just tell her to relax, be careful, continue to be dedicated and that I have dinner covered. 

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Covri

Covri 6368

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Can someone explain it like I’m five why people in Dallas still can’t get tested when they have multiple symptoms of it and work in essential businesses like a urgent care/ health clinics/pharmacies? Heard there are only two testing locations now in Dallas and they have limited tests available. Other places stopped testing (turning people away to begin with) all together as a result.

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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2597

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2 minutes ago, Covri said:

Can someone explain it like I’m five why people in Dallas still can’t get tested when they have multiple symptoms of it and work in essential businesses like a urgent care/ health clinics/pharmacies? Heard there are only two testing locations now in Dallas and they have limited tests available. Other places stopped testing (turning people away to begin with) all together as a result.

solely based on the Texas dashboard website, the private testing dwarfs the public testing.  The 2 drive through sites in Dallas county can only test a max of 250 per day (each).  They list that restriction as 'federally mandated'.  No idea on the criteria for private testing

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26881

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5 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

 My daughter, the high school teacher, has stayed away for two weeks.  Tomorrow she’s coming over and we get to spend the day with her.  It will be nice to have a little return to normalcy.  Can’t wait to see her.  

Let me guess. Tito's time? 

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Covri

Covri 6368

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Just now, gyroprotagonist said:

solely based on the Texas dashboard website, the private testing dwarfs the public testing.  The 2 drive through sites in Dallas county can only test a max of 250 per day (each).  They list that restriction as 'federally mandated'.  No idea on the criteria for private testing

They tried to got to their insurance provided options and were told they didn’t meet the criteria. One was a vet and was told the VA wasn’t testing allegedly.

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Loco

Loco 3754

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

The video of cellphones in Ft. Lauderdale and then their spread convinces me we should nuke pretty much the entire midwest and most of the NE.  We'd be better of in many ways.

Kinda looks like we already did.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65419

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57 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

And if there are, you'll just get a new screen name with a different hot take.

Dude, get the fuck out of here with the 64,000 dead by Easter hawt take. We’ve walked through how removing variables changes outcomes, often violently and unexpectedly, in big data exercises in the real world and away from the spreadsheets and classrooms where “huuurrrrr derrrrr exponential into an asymptote against the the population total for realz!!!”. We’ve done it plenty on here and this kind of shit from someone randomly showing up is as tiring as the old “it’s just like the flu!” drive-bys. 

And if you or anyone wants to their money or their Surly account where their mouth is on this, I’ll take you up on it. If we have 32,000 deaths in the US from this by Easter, you win. I’ll take the under and I’m taking all bets. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90645

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1 hour ago, landman said:

Around 1.200,000 people die in the US each year from cancer and heart disease. We know a number of contributing factors for both yet do nothing. This will not come close to that. Yet we are destroying our lives over it. 

And in the US, the death rate is approaching what it is for the flu. And that without factoring in the tens of thousands that have had it and never knew.  

Everybody has already shown you how cancer and heart disease patients don't overwhelm our hospitals in short order, and how they don't infect and kill the people trying to treat them.

It was pathetic back in February when airheads were pushing the "it's not as bad as the flu", even though the rest of us were like "holy shit, they are completely locking down parts of China, crippling their economy, and arresting people for breaking the quarantine rules.  Just how bad is this going to get?"

It's now March 26, 2020, and there are still idiots bitching that it's not as bad as the flu, that we shouldn't "destroy our lives over it", that we shouldn't risk our stonk portfolios, that granny may have to die so you can start back at the Cracker Barrel.

This is a sports forum focused on The University of Texas at Austin.  Maybe they have some experts who could inform us?  Why yes, yes they do.

https://www.kxan.com/news/ut-modeling-shows-covid-19-demand-could-put-austin-hospitals-at-capacity-in-several-weeks/

Quote

 Modeling data from a University of Texas at Austin researcher shows that without social distancing COVID-19 patients may overwhelm Austin hospitals to the point where these hospitals exceed their capacities by this summer.

Oh, but who are these people talking about such things?

Quote

UT Austin infectious disease epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers spoke with the media about modeling results from a pandemic tool she and her team developed. Ancel Meyers is also speaking about the preliminary findings from that tool about the potential spread and impact of COVID-19 for the Austin-Round Rock region. 

But the aggy who think this is just the flu and we should get on with our lives, and I'm not saying you're one of them, but you sure as fuck act like it, I'm sure they will claim that she is just another tsip

http://www.bio.utexas.edu/research/meyers/LaurenM/index.html

Quote

I am a Professor of Integrative Biology at The University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the External Faculty and Scientific Advisory Board of the Santa Fe Institute. I was trained as a mathematical biologist at Harvard and Stanford Universities, and my research foci include network epidemiology, optimization of infectious disease surveillance and control, and translational tools for public health.

Whooptie Fucking Do, right?

Quote

I have trained numerous graduate students and postdocs that have gone onto successful careers in academia and industry, and lead an interdisciplinary team of scientists, engineers, social scientists and public health professionals in uncovering the sociological and biological drivers of influenza transmission, improving disease control policies for influenza and HIV, redesigning disease surveillance systems to harness next-generation data, and creating decision-support software for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Association of Public Health Labs (APHL), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

PSHAW!  Harvard, Stanford?  They got nothing on Aggy School of Medicine!  I bet UT higher-ups wouldn't even sign off on this.

Quote

Dr. Clay Johnston, dean of the Dell Medical School at UT Austin, will be joining Ancel Meyers to talk about the public health implications of Ancel Meyers’ research.

But who the fuck is this guy?  I bet he's an ophthalmologist or chiropractor or something and not a real doctor

https://dellmed.utexas.edu/directory/clay-johnston

Quote

M.D.
Harvard Medical School

Ph.D., Epidemiology
University of California, Berkeley

But I'm washing my hands and I'm staying 5 feet away from people when I make my daily trips into Krogers!

Quote

Meyers’ model projects if there’s no social distancing that 1.6 million people will be infected by August in the Austin area. Furthermore, the data showed that a reduction in person-to-person contacts by 50% to 75% may not be enough to mitigate spread of COVID-19 and stop a surge of hospitalizations in the five-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays). 

Bbbbut this is hurting my stonks, I need people to get back to work, 

Quote

In the projections from the UT model, the only scenario which does not result in overwhelming Austin’s current capacity is one in which in-person interactions by residents are reduced by 90%. 

At a press conference on Tuesday, Austin leaders said they estimate that Austin residents had reduced their daily contacts in the community by only 50%.

Quote

“The takeaway from this analysis is that the extent of social distancing measures and our willingness to adhere to them will directly impact not only the fate of the outbreak but also our capacity to provide life-saving health care for those in need,” said Ancel Meyers.

DAMNIT THE MASS COMMUNICATION MAJOR ON TV SAID IT'S KEEPING US FROM DOING OUR NORMAL THINGS, AND I DON'T UNDERSTAND LOTS OF WORDS.

The University of Texas at Austin made a nice graph for you

spacer.png

But I bet she's not good at computers!

Actually, she's pretty fucking good with computers, at least going by what the CDC says about her, but what do they know amirite?  Well, she did have some help.

Quote

For the modeling presented Thursday, Meyers applied mathematical models while also using computers at UT’s Texas Advanced Computing Center using available data about how quickly a disease spreads.

Yeah, but seriously, what do her bosses think, that guy that got his epidemwhatever degree at Berkley

Step away from the TV, stop taking your advice from communications and business majors who have shows on TV and are doing their best to keep you watching or play to your personal financial anxieties.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90645

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Whoever wants to read the UT paper.  Here are the bios of those who produced it.

https://utexas.app.box.com/s/7kgikqmev8ex831aq9wcsb3n5kwr7nxh

Lauren Ancel Meyers

Quote

I am a Professor of Integrative Biology at The University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the External Faculty and Scientific Advisory Board of the Santa Fe Institute. I was trained as a mathematical biologist at Harvard and Stanford Universities, and my research foci include network epidemiology, optimization of infectious disease surveillance and control, and translational tools for public health.

Dr. Zhanwei Du - Postdoctoral Fellow - Meyers Lab, Department of Integrative Biology, Lots of extremely technical publications and research like "Location based surveillance for early detection of contagious outbreaks"

Dr. Spencer J. Fox - Data scientist, "taught weekly R data science course and trained 50+ graduate students for the Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics", Research Associate at UT Austin working on statistical epidemiology.

Dr. Michael Pignone - UT Austin/Dell Medical School, Chair, Department of Internal Medicine, Assistant Dean for Veterans Affairs, master’s degree in epidemiology from the UNC School of Public Health.

Dr. Clay Johnston

Quote
  • Dean, Dell Medical School, University of Texas at Austin
  • Vice President for Medical Affairs, UT Austin
  • Frank and Charmaine Denius Distinguished Dean’s Chair in Medical Leadership
  • M.D. - Harvard Medical School
  • Ph.D., Epidemiology - University of California, Berkeley

Remy Pasco - PhD student in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering at UT Austin, Department of Integrative Biology. 5 years experience as a market risk analyst in finance.  Bachelor of Science in engineering from the Ecole Centrale de Nantes, MEng, Financial Engineering, Cornell University, 

 Xutong Wang - Ph.D. candidate in Computational Epidemiology and M.S. in Statistics; research focuses on statistical and mathematical modeling of disease dynamics

Michaela Petty - Bunch of stuff about epidemiology

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39072

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12 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Dude, get the fuck out of here with the 64,000 dead by Easter hawt take. We’ve walked through how removing variables changes outcomes, often violently and unexpectedly, in big data exercises in the real world and away from the spreadsheets and classrooms where “huuurrrrr derrrrr exponential into an asymptote against the the population total for realz!!!”. We’ve done it plenty on here and this kind of shit from someone randomly showing up is as tiring as the old “it’s just like the flu!” drive-bys. 

And if you or anyone wants to their money or their Surly account where their mouth is on this, I’ll take you up on it. If we have 32,000 deaths in the US from this by Easter, you win. I’ll take the under and I’m taking all bets. 

Fuck you 32,000 times.

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dcar00

dcar00 14962

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55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

I knocked it down to 100M-125M from about 200M(highly contagious, more so than swine) becuase of the social distancing, cancelling large events, stopping of flights etc.

give n swine was 60M I think 100M+ is a good bet.

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