Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Somnio 751]

54 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Having a larger population is irrelavent on this comparison. All things being equal, it'd spread at the same rate regardless of population size.

The differences at this stage are related to proliferation of testing and acts to stop the spread. Total population would only mean something once you got into tens of millions of cases, at which point Italy would be running out of people to infect while the US would have plenty.

Of course, total case numbers are largely meaningless right now anyway given the differences in approach between countries and the likelihood of a huge undercount. Deaths are better, and even that standard isn't universal.

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

[Incredulity 11654]

5 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

Absolutely, while there certainly is a patient zero at the origin each cluster can have multiple or be augmented by additional infected arrivals.

[Pato del Muerto 52486]

10 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

Yes. 
or, as much as we travel, one single infection coming into day Seattle could have infected someone who then went to nyc and started that pocket. And so forth. 
it’s not like 1918 when there wasn’t much city to city hopping that allows something to seed in multiple areas. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[WBT 20561]

8 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

Of course, could and did.

[Incredulity 11654]

8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

This is a text I got about half an hour ago... lulz

 

Please do not call 911 for violations of the Stay Home, Stay Safe order.  You can report violations online.

I saw an older gentleman taking license plates at a neighborhood convenience store yesterday.  My assumption was he didn’t think the store should be open, but can’t confirm.

[naija 2854]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Fauci said to stop all non-emergency procedures including most dermatology, tonsillectomies, cataract surgeries, etc. Sounds like you disagree with him. You should send him a strongly worded email.

No, I don't disagree with him. I just understand that ENTs don't just do tonsillectomies all day, but in many, if not most tertiary centers, are part of the difficult airway team. I understand that they also take care of upper airway and maxillofacial traumas, which sometimes are not amenable to a sit at home solution. And that Critical Care, is a subspecialty of General Surgery, which includes management of non-operative patients in an ICU setting, with several hospitals having Covid-19 patients in their SICUs. And Covid-19 patients on the floors are requiring nebulizer treatments, and that the virus really doesn't care if the location isn't an ICU or ED but that the nurses and respiratory therapists performing such treatments will need appropriate PPE as well.

[dcar00 14154]

51 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Derkas been awfully quiet

unless shaka gets the corona i'm guessing he'll pass on this thread.

[naija 2854]

11 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I saw an older gentleman taking license plates at a neighborhood convenience store yesterday.  My assumption was he didn’t think the store should be open, but can’t confirm.

Nextdoor or whatever that busybody app where people talk shit about their neighbors must be hopping right now

[Bevo 13568]

1 minute ago, naija said:

No, I don't disagree with him. I just understand that ENTs don't just do tonsillectomies all day, but in many, if not most tertiary centers, are part of the difficult airway team. I understand that they also take care of upper airway and maxillofacial traumas, which sometimes are not amenable to a sit at home solution. And that Critical Care, is a subspecialty of General Surgery, which includes management of non-operative patients in an ICU setting, with several hospitals having Covid-19 patients in their SICUs. And Covid-19 patients on the floors are requiring nebulizer treatments, and that the virus really doesn't care if the location isn't an ICU or ED but that the nurses and respiratory therapists performing such treatments will need appropriate PPE as well.

My dad is an ENT so I have a pretty good idea of what they do. My dad has focused on head and neck cancer but still does plenty of tonsillectomies, rhinoplasties and other elective stuff. Right now he is having a Scotch and water.

[stork642 4498]

9 minutes ago, naija said:

Nextdoor or whatever that busybody app where people talk shit about their neighbors must be hopping right now

Is there an app to talk shit about the people in your own house?  I may need that one.  

[dcar00 14154]

33 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

This is a text I got about half an hour ago... lulz

 

Please do not call 911 for violations of the Stay Home, Stay Safe order.  You can report violations online.

where they will go directly to the circular file...

[4th_and_18 687]

Is there an app to talk shit about the people in your own house?  I may need that one.  

311 anonymous reporting

[dcar00 14154]

The NYC case cluster by home/work address would be really interesting.

[Loco 3752]

48 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

They put state troopers at the bridge crossing over to the Outer Banks last week. Primary residents only, not even folks who own vacation homes can get across now I believe.

Same for the keys, cops posted on the 18 mile stretch & Card Sound rd.

they emptied the hotels this past Sunday and rentals, including monthly rentals are not to be renewed (according to a friend down there)

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Is there an app to talk shit about the people in your own house?  I may need that one.  

Surly

[Pato del Muerto 52486]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

The NYC case cluster by home/work address would be really interesting.

And overlayed on the mta lines

[utee94 15807]

46 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

You are correct.

Which is why a  comparison directly and solely to Italy, is incorrect and invalid.

If people insist on comparing the USA to Europe, then they should do something like add up UK, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain, which together, are at least roughly analogous to the population, and geographic spread, of the USA. Additionally, the disparate ways in which all of those countries have approached containment, testing, and treating, are similarly analogous to the variety of approaches demonstrated by the combination of municipalities, counties, and states, within the USA.

Edited March 28, 2020 by utee94

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Cluster talk not going away. My favorite is almond.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Worldometer has just reset. AS OF NOW 312 death count up from 268 yesterday. About on a 3.5 day double. Daily case count actually down 200, 17224 to 17029. Look to be on a 5 day double for daily cases, 9400 daily cases on March 22

 

NYC up 900 cases and 30 deaths from yesterday according to BNO desk

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Cluster talk not going away. My favorite is almond.

I'm partial to these clusters, if they happen to get chocolate covered.... so be it.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

So, I put a lot of NYC data together.  I expect the NYC Shut Down changes (restaurants and bars closed at 8 PM on 3/16) to start showing up in the data.  I think it might have already started based on the changes between 3/25 and 3/26 and 3/26 and 3/27.  Totals seem high, but when you look at the rate of change from the prior day, I think some of the measures might be working.

 

	16-Mar	17-Mar	18-Mar	19-Mar	20-Mar	21-Mar	22-Mar	23-Mar	24-Mar	25-Mar	26-Mar	27-Mar
Cases
Bronx							1,564	1,999	2,505	3,542	4,243	4,880
Brooklyn							3,154	3,742	4,407	5,232	6,095	7,091
Manhattan							2,324	2,646	3,013	3,616	4,046	4,627
Queens							3,050	3,848	4,667	6,420	7,362	8,529
Staten Island							666	877	999	1,166	1,330	1,534
Unknown							6	7	6	35	36	36
Total	464	923	2,009	3,954	5,683	8,115	10,764	13,119	15,597	20,011	23,112	26,697
Increase from Prior Day		459	1,086	1,945	1,729	2,432	2,649	2,355	2,478	4,414	3,101	3,585
Percentage Increase		99%	118%	97%	44%	43%	33%	22%	19%	28%	15%	16%
Deaths
Bronx										60	80	101
Brooklyn										64	81	102
Manhattan										43	55	65
Queens										92	123	149
Staten Island										21	26	33
Unknown										-	-	-
Total	7	10	11	26	43	60	99	125	192	280	365	450
Increase from Prior Day		3	1	15	17	17	39	26	67	88	85	85
Percentage Increase		43%	10%	136%	65%	40%	65%	26%	54%	46%	30%	23%
Hospitalizations
Bronx										802	1,071	1,200
Brooklyn										919	968	989
Manhattan										584	729	709
Queens										1,363	1,659	1,810
Staten Island										251	283	321
Unknown										3	10	10
Total									2,850	3,922	4,720	5,039
Increase from Prior Day										1,072	798	319
Percentage Increase										38%	20%	7%

[blacklab 11926]

33 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Is there an app to talk shit about the people in your own house?  I may need that one.  

There's a thread in lulz for that.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

13 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Worldometer has just reset. AS OF NOW 312 death count up from 268 yesterday. About on a 3.5 day double. Daily case count actually down 200, 17224 to 17029. Look to be on a 5 day double for daily cases, 9400 daily cases on March 22

 

NYC up 900 cases and 30 deaths from yesterday according to BNO desk

Need to go by official NYC stats.  

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

120+ confirmed cases in San Antonio, didn’t give an exact number today but yesterday was 113.

5 deaths

Of the 120+, 33 are hospitalized currently

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Need to go by official NYC stats.  

Ok. Was just reading them respond to a tweet


Anyway you can make your last post readable? Looks like a silver lining post

[triplehorn 2664]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

One thing I know for sure: the PTSD among the medical community when this is all over.....sheeeeit.

I'm dead serious.  For at least the rest of this year, no medical professional who put their ass on the line during this pandemic will pay for a drink while I'm around.  They didn't sign up for this (well, they kinda did, but they didn't KNOW they did)  -- but they've stepped into the breach for the greater good.

It would behoove states, probably via medical boards, psychologist boards, and health authorities to assemble volunteer mental health professionals to provide direct support (telehealth) to front line health care of any stripe throughout this ordeal.  I'm also reminded of all the docs and RNs and others who are separating from their families during this to reduce their exposure and are isolating alone somewhere until they go back in.  

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

So, on the NC state parks Facebook page, there's a running commentary started by one of the more asinine things I've seen on Facebook lately (I know, I know...):

Good times.

[Bevo Num1 1011]

So, on the NC state parks Facebook page, there's a running commentary started by one of the more asinine things I've seen on Facebook lately (I know, I know...):

Good times.

People are dumb as shit.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Just now, Bevo Num1 said:

2 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

So, on the NC state parks Facebook page, there's a running commentary started by one of the more asinine things I've seen on Facebook lately (I know, I know...):

Good times.

People are dumb as shit.

[Pato del Muerto 52486]

2 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

So, on the NC state parks Facebook page, there's a running commentary started by one of the more asinine things I've seen on Facebook lately (I know, I know...):

Good times.

You need to figure out who her husband is, and invite him to the wives thread.  I feel there is a lot of good content for quarantine reading. 

[bolverk 29655]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok. Was just reading them respond to a tweet


Anyway you can make your last post readable? Looks like a silver lining post

Not that hard to read. The rate of increase in cases, death, and hospitalizations is decreasing. Not great but...better or less worse?

[Zepol87 9185]

18 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

So, on the NC state parks Facebook page, there's a running commentary started by one of the more asinine things I've seen on Facebook lately (I know, I know...):

Good times.

One thing that tripped me out getting older is just how fucking stupid alot of adults are. I say this as an adult idiot also 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Zepol87
Drunk can't spell

[Dahobbs 17526]

34 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Worldometer has just reset. AS OF NOW 312 death count up from 268 yesterday. About on a 3.5 day double. Daily case count actually down 200, 17224 to 17029. Look to be on a 5 day double for daily cases, 9400 daily cases on March 22

 

NYC up 900 cases and 30 deaths from yesterday according to BNO desk

18,294 and 398 now. 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

55 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Is there an app to talk shit about the people in your own house?  I may need that one.  

I am developing this app.  I call it Nextroom.   Or maybe Downthehall.

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, Somnio said:

Here's a question I've been pondering, forgive me if I'm misunderstanding.

When looking at exponential growth I always assumed it started with one person in one location, and all cases grew from this one cluster.

However, is it not possible to have multiple clusters all growing exponentially simultaneously?

For instance hypothetically the New York cluster could have begun in mid January with a single person flying in from China.

Meanwhile a cluster across the country could have begun on a different date, starting with a different infected person from Italy.

Couldn't scenarios like these have played out across the country over the last 3 months, with each cluster growing exponentially?

There were around 20 different strands detected in the US lady month thought to be from different initial people. They are likely s lot more clusters than that by now.

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

HPD no longer arresting DWIs. Calling tow trucks and putting them in Ubers

 

what a time to be alive

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

There were around 20 different strands detected in the US lady month thought to be from different initial people. They are likely s lot more clusters than that by now.

I tried reading this six times 

[GreenspointTexas 9598]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

I tried reading this six times 

Username checks out

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Not that hard to read. The rate of increase in cases, death, and hospitalizations is decreasing. Not great but...better or less worse?

Maybe it’s different on tapa

[Hpara759 1778]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

One thing I know for sure: the PTSD among the medical community when this is all over.....sheeeeit.

I'm dead serious.  For at least the rest of this year, no medical professional who put their ass on the line during this pandemic will pay for a drink while I'm around.  They didn't sign up for this (well, they kinda did, but they didn't KNOW they did)  -- but they've stepped into the breach for the greater good.

Sweet.....If I live through this I'll take you up on your offer

[Pato del Muerto 52486]

4 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I tried reading this six times 

Change lady to last

[bolverk 29655]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Maybe it’s different on tapa

I wouldn't doubt that at all. You might consider dumping tapa and just view on a regular browser with your phone. The "new" site is much more friendly than the scat one.

[blacklab 11926]

10 minutes ago, RayDog said:

There were around 20 different strands detected in the US lady month thought to be from different initial people. 

I assume this was supposed to be "lady time of the month"

[Hpara759 1778]

Update on the situation in Nazareth (Castro Co)......now 8 confirmed cases

Good news 2 of the 3 folks on vents have made it off of them and are breathing on their own

Bad news: one of the new cases in Nazareth is an FNP at the county clinic in Dimmitt

[triplehorn 2664]

 

Quote

By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- The long lines and stacks of ash urns
greeting family members of the dead at funeral homes in Wuhan
are spurring questions about the true scale of coronavirus
casualties at the epicenter of the outbreak, renewing pressure
on a Chinese government struggling to control its containment
narrative.
The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the
central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in
December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight
local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos
circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being
ferried in.
Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500
urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media
outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500
urns stacked on the ground inside. It’s unclear how many of the
urns had been filled.
People who answered the phone at six of the eight funeral
homes in Wuhan said they either did not have data on how many
urns were waiting to be collected, or were not authorized to
disclose the numbers. Calls were not answered at the other two.
Some families said they had been forced to wait for several
hours to pick up the ashes. The photos circulated as mass deaths
from the virus spiked in cities across the west, including
Milan, Madrid and New York, where hospitals were erecting tents
to handle the overflow as global infections soar past 500,000,
with 24,000 dead.
According to Chinese government figures, 2,535 people in
Wuhan have died of the virus. The announcement that a lockdown
in place since January would be lifted came after China said its
tally of new cases had hit zero and stepped up diplomatic
outreach to other countries hard hit by the virus, sending some
of them medical supplies.
But some in China have been skeptical of the accuracy of
the official tally, particularly given Wuhan’s overwhelmed
medical system, authorities’ attempts to cover up the outbreak
in its initial stages, and multiple revisions to the way
official cases are counted. Residents on social media have
demanded disciplinary action against top Wuhan officials.
China’s Hidden Symptom-Free Virus Cases Means Epidemic Not
Over
Many people who died had Covid-19 symptoms, but weren’t
tested and excluded from the official case tally, Caixin said.
There were also patients who died of other diseases due to a
lack of proper treatment when hospitals were overwhelmed dealing
with those who had the coronavirus.
There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter
of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency.
The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the
fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter
of 2017.

Mourning Restrictions

The families of the deceased may not be able to say a
proper goodbye to their loved ones just yet. Wuhan’s government
issued a statement on Thursday prohibiting individuals in the
city from tomb-sweeping activities until April 30, meaning they
would not be able to observe the traditional April 4 Ching Ming
Festival, or tomb sweeping holiday. Other provinces including
Guangxi and Zhejiang have also announced similar restrictions.
Two locals in Wuhan who have lost family members to the
virus said online that they were informed they had to be
accompanied by their employers or officials from neighborhood
committees when picking up the urns, likely as a measure against
public gatherings.
“I was told by district government to wait until further
notice on when I can pick up my father’s ashes,” one Wuhan
resident using the name “Xue Zai Shou Zhong,” meaning “snow in
hand,” posted on Weibo. “There is a staggered arrangement for
urn collecting.”
Another Weibo user using the handle Adagier said she lost
her husband to the coronavirus and had since been contacted by
police warning her not to be too emotional -- and to stop
posting online.
“I have only one demand,” she wrote. “I want to give my
husband a proper burial as soon as possible.”

--With assistance from Dandan Li and Claire Che.

 

[dcar00 14154]

19 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

HPD no longer arresting DWIs. Calling tow trucks and putting them in Ubers

 

what a time to be alive

actually not a bad idea although I wouldn't want to be the uber driver...

[Trey3216 15345]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I've posted the Peter Attia videos explaining our testing options multiple times.  Not my fault if you refuse to watch them.

I’ve watched them.  I know we haven’t been the best at testing.  I agree.  I also believe we were using the ‘recommended’ kits that 5 different major/peer countries this week have finally acknowledged were faulty tests.   They were also CDC recommended/created tests that China said were good.   They’re not good.   So we had to completely start over again re:testing.   
 

 

China has fucked up on every level of this damn thing and it’s pretty damn far from coincidental.  Yeah, we’ve fucked up too, but we weren’t telling the WHO 2 months into a Major meltdown problem that This shit didn’t transfer from human to human.   

[Anastasis 23463]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

I’ve watched them.  I know we haven’t been the best at testing.  I agree.  I also believe we were using the ‘recommended’ kits that 5 different major/peer countries this week have finally acknowledged were faulty tests.   They were also CDC recommended/created tests that China said were good.   They’re not good.   So we had to completely start over again re:testing.   
 

 

China has fucked up on every level of this damn thing and it’s pretty damn far from coincidental.  Yeah, we’ve fucked up too, but we weren’t telling the WHO 2 months into a Major meltdown problem that This shit didn’t transfer from human to human.   

China's tests are shit.  They shipped a bunch to Czech and they stopped using them cause they are garbage.  If our CDC was relying on Chinese input wrt test development that was a huge mistake.