Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[NoName 16296]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

LOL it only took them a month to start putting out these graphs and inserting the factor of total population into the mix. The result? WOW LOOK AT THIS. Some of these people need to be stripped of their credentials. 

I get it, you haven't heard of Scott Gottlieb before...it's ok.

He is extremely well thought of, is was seen as one of the best political appointments of the current administration (before he left the FDA.) Got his MD from Mt Sinai, was an assistant professor at NYU School of Medicine, worked at CMS and historically was on the editorial board of JAMA. He is generally seen as one of the adults in the room almost everywher ehe has been and again is very well thought of. Currently at AEI.

You should stop talking shit about folks you have never heard before assuming they are morons.

[Digdogger 1343]

Just now, NoName said:

I get it, you haven't heard of Scott Gottlieb before...it's ok.

He is extremely well thought of, is was seen as one of the best political appointments of the current administration (before he left the FDA.) Got his MD from Mt Sinai, was an assistant professor at NYU School of Medicine, worked at CMS and historically was on the editorial board of JAMA. He is generally seen as one of the adults in the room almost everywher ehe has been and again is very well thought of. Currently at AEI.

You should stop talking shit about folks you have never heard before assuming they are morons.

I love that guy.  He got a raw deal in getting fired from doing the Aflac ads though

[Ignatius 4001]

On 3/31/2020 at 9:09 PM, Murfdogg21 said:

Dumb question alert!

Is there a point in this when it becomes strategic to intentionally infect the lowest risk people and quarantine them for 2-3 weeks as known positives, so they can no longer be unknowing spreaders later on?

If they’ll open a bar that serves food where only people who’ve already had the virus can congregate, I’ll take my injection right now...

[Snake Diggity 4614]

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Fuck Tim Beck 3806]

7 minutes ago, NoName said:

I get it, you haven't heard of Scott Gottlieb before...it's ok.

He is extremely well thought of, is was seen as one of the best political appointments of the current administration (before he left the FDA.) Got his MD from Mt Sinai, was an assistant professor at NYU School of Medicine, worked at CMS and historically was on the editorial board of JAMA. He is generally seen as one of the adults in the room almost everywher ehe has been and again is very well thought of. Currently at AEI.

You should stop talking shit about folks you have never heard before assuming they are morons.

Hmm. I don't see Mensa listed anywhere in there. 

[Js1 85109]

29 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I would also argue it isn’t early for the US. We’ve had this shit in our country since Dec likely

Hell yeah I think I was patient zero 2 weeks after I got back from India. Started right around Dec 26-27

[Dahobbs 17447]

19 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

LOL it only took them a month to start putting out these graphs and inserting the factor of total population into the mix. The result? WOW LOOK AT THIS. Some of these people need to be stripped of their credentials. 

I don't really understand why anyone really thinks those graphs matter. All they basically show is that Italy has a larger population (60.4 million) than Spain (46.6 million) and the US a larger population (327.2 million) than both the others. 

Simple thought experiment: if each country started with 1 infected person on January 15th, wouldn't we expect the total infections to be relatively similar (assuming no mitigation measures taken)? Population doesn't really dictate the rate of spread, at least not in the early stages. Rather, population dictates how long the virus can continue to spread at the same rate. The larger the population, the longer it takes for a large enough percentage of population to be immune and thus limit/slow further spread. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dahobbs

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Hell yeah I think I was patient zero 2 weeks after I got back from India. Started right around Dec 26-27

I knew it.

[Incredulity 11564]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I don't really understand why anyone really thinks those graphs matter. All they basically show is that Italy has a larger population (60.4 million) than Spain (46.6 million) and the US a larger population (327.2 million) than both the others. 

Simple thought experiment: if each country started with 1 infected person on January 15th, wouldn't we expect the total infections to be relatively similar (assuming no mitigation measures taken)? Population doesn't really dictate the rate of spread, at least not in the early stages. Rather, population dictates how long the virus can continue to spread before a substantial portion of the population has already been infected, limiting the opportunities for further exposure. 

Do you honestly believe this started with 1 person in the United States? or any other country outside of patient zero in Wuhan.

[South Austin 52144]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hell yeah I think I was patient zero 2 weeks after I got back from India. Started right around Dec 26-27

Thanks, asshole.

 

[babysdaddy 2718]

9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

I think we will have treatments and testing ready and prepared that there will be no issues this Fall.  And you forgot to put in the Masters in October

[Buzzrock 14871]

Stuck my head in the CR thread for a minute.

Don’t do that.

[GringoSalado 1651]

2 hours ago, pacman said:

I don't think that is an accurate description of the previous labor market at all.

In fact, I doubt anybody who has been paying attention to the US economy is surprised by how fragile the job market is for so many. Too actually see the scale of this dip, in real time, in unemployment is mind blowing though.

What is fragile about businesses laying off workers when the govt. mandates that they close?

[Dahobbs 17447]

6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Do you honestly believe this started with 1 person in the United States? or any other country outside of patient zero in Wuhan.

I didn't say that. I'm simply pointing out that if each country started with the same number of infected (1, 100, 1000) the rate of spread would be the same. The countries with the larger populations would always look better in that sort of chart, but it doesn't seem to be conveying meaningful information. If it took all three countries 30 days to go from 100 infections to 10,000, why would we conclude that the larger country had a superior outcome? It is the exact same outcome. All that chart is telling us is the relative population of each country. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dahobbs

[NoName 16296]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Stuck my head in the CR thread for a minute.

Don’t do that.

better self quarantine for 14 days just to be safe...

[closetojumping 62242]

13 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

Where do I send my $9.95 so that I may subscribe to your newsletter?

I'd take that timeline without a lot of coaxing.

[Redmen62 126]

Just hit a million worldwide detected cases on worldometers.

[Chet Steadman 940]

I don't see any College Football on that timeline?

[B00M 6280]

16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

[Incredulity 11564]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't say that. I'm simply pointing out that if each country started with the same number of infected (1, 100, 1000) the rate of spread would be the same. The countries with the larger populations would always look better in that sort of chart, but it doesn't seem to be conveying meaningful information. If it took all three countries 30 days to go from 100 infections to 10,000, why would we conclude that the larger country had a superior outcome? It is the exact same outcome. All that chart is telling us is the relative population of each country. 

Why would you assume each country would start with the same number of infected?

Other significant factors:

population density

population mobility

cultural practices

hug a Chinese programs

 

All of which is pretty much irrelevant because we really have no idea how many are or have been infected.

 

[NorthLoop 14092]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't say that. I'm simply pointing out that if each country started with the same number of infected (1, 100, 1000) the rate of spread would be the same. The countries with the larger populations would always look better in that sort of chart, but it doesn't seem to be conveying meaningful information. If it took all three countries 30 days to go from 100 infections to 10,000, why would we conclude that the larger country had a superior outcome? It is the exact same outcome. All that chart is telling us is the relative population of each country. 

It's only the exact same outcome if you assume that every case in the US came from the first person infected in the US, which is a really really stupid assumption. 

[NorthLoop 14092]

29 minutes ago, NoName said:

I get it, you haven't heard of Scott Gottlieb before...it's ok.

He is extremely well thought of, is was seen as one of the best political appointments of the current administration (before he left the FDA.) Got his MD from Mt Sinai, was an assistant professor at NYU School of Medicine, worked at CMS and historically was on the editorial board of JAMA. He is generally seen as one of the adults in the room almost everywher ehe has been and again is very well thought of. Currently at AEI.

You should stop talking shit about folks you have never heard before assuming they are morons.

Ok don't strip him of his credentials. But add one that says "limited understanding of basic statistics" 

[NoName 16296]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Ok don't strip him of his credentials. But add one that says "limited understanding of basic statistics" 

[utee94 15745]

24 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't really understand why anyone really thinks those graphs matter. All they basically show is that Italy has a larger population (60.4 million) than Spain (46.6 million) and the US a larger population (327.2 million) than both the others. 

Simple thought experiment: if each country started with 1 infected person on January 15th, wouldn't we expect the total infections to be relatively similar (assuming no mitigation measures taken)? Population doesn't really dictate the rate of spread, at least not in the early stages. Rather, population dictates how long the virus can continue to spread at the same rate. The larger the population, the longer it takes for a large enough percentage of population to be immune and thus limit/slow further spread. 

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  

We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders but rather it remains contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?

Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.

A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.

So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

Edited April 2, 2020 by utee94

[BillyGoatHill 4276]

17 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Stuck my head in the CR thread for a minute.

Don’t do that.

[Dahobbs 17447]

7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

It's only the exact same outcome if you assume that every case in the US came from the first person infected in the US, which is a really really stupid assumption. 

? I didn't do that?

Tell me why that statistic matters. What is it conveying? Does it indicate the US is doing something better? How? What is "better"? 

Again, if it takes each country the same number of days to go from 1,000 cases to 10,000 cases, why would we think the larger country was doing something better than the others? The doubling period is the same. The rate of spread is the same. The number of infected is the same. 

If you wanted that chart to mean something, you could add when the country began taking action on the time line. There is something to be said for acting faster in regards to the relative amount of your population exposed as, presumably, that would mean you're given yourself a better shot to avoid your healthcare system being overrun. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dahobbs

[NorthLoop 14092]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  

We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders and it contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?

Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.

A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.

So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

Wish I could rep this 100 times

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

1 hour ago, 1978horn said:

At least on Surly your a reasonable asshole.  Usually we get all the internet tough guys, not the guys that are like that in real life.

Delete China, ban Italy? 

[Js1 85109]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  

We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders but rather it remains contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?

Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.

A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.

So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

Near instantaneous? Then why does it still take 8-10 hours to get to Europe, huh?!

[Dahobbs 17447]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  

We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders but rather it remains contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?

Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.

A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.

So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

I didn't make any of those assumptions. I was giving an example to illustrate why I believe the chart is of questionable merit. I agree that the infection can have multiple starting points. But, once it takes hold, that initial number isn't particularly meaningful. Again, if it takes each country the same amount of time to go from 1,000 infections to 10,000 infections, why would we think the larger country did something better? 

[BradInATX 9208]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

A goodly portion of that was the influx of a couple of those CR posters. 

You have over two thousand posts on the CR.

[Incredulity 11564]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Near instantaneous? Then why does it still take 8-10 hours to get to Europe, huh?!

because they mothballed the Concorde.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  
We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders but rather it remains contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?
Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.
A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.
So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

Europe:402,567 cases, 32,509 deaths
USA: 235,747 cases, 5,620 deaths

166,820/ 26,889 difference

[Brisketexan 104610]

 

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Europe:402,567 cases, 32,509 deaths
USA: 235,747 cases, 5,620 deaths

166,820/ 26,889 difference

False.  Those are CONFIRMED cases.  Europe has much more widespread testing -- their confirmed cases are much close to their actual cases.  Ours....not even close.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Near instantaneous? Then why does it still take 8-10 hours to get to Europe, huh?!

Corona travels at the speed of light. IT IS KNOWN

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't understand why you and some others continue positing it this way.  Why do you believe this assumption is true or even meaningful?  

We don't have 1 infection from 1 patient zero spreading uniformly in the USA.  This isn't 1918 where our national and international travel is limited to horseback, buggy, railroads, and ships that take a week to cross the ocean.  We have near-instantaneous travel to almost any location in the world.  Consequently we have hotspots blooming all over the country.  We have New York and Seattle and Detroit and New Orleans and all of Florida.  Just as Europe has Northern Italy and London and Madrid and Paris.  Do you think the virus doesn't cross state boundaries or national borders but rather it remains contained within your selected geographical observational area of choice?

Here's a thought experiment: Light a fire in the center of a forest, and measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Now start over, and light 15 fires spread throughout that same forest, and then once again measure the acreage burned 1 day, 3 days, 10 days, 30 days later.  Right now, you're telling me you think those two numbers would be the same.  But they're clearly not going to be the same.

A comparison to Italy doesn't make any sense at all and never has.  The more appropriate comparison, would be the USA versus the 5 most populous nations in Europe, which is UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain.  Those in total are pretty close to the USA in population, they represent wider geographic spread that is more analogous to the USA than any one of those countries on its own, and beyond that, their varying approaches to containing the spread of coronavirus from country to country, could be viewed as similar to the differing ways the various states and municipalities within the USA have approached the same problem.

So if you really want to compare European totals to USA totals, then you should add up their total deaths of those 5 countries, at the same point in time (x days after first 100 deaths or whatever measure you prefer).  Then, and only then, will you have something that approaches a rational comparison.

That’s not what he’s assuming.  He was saying that population isn’t a constraint until well down the road, if the infection starts in similar numbers, be it 1 or 100. Why couldn’t Italy or Spain have similar starting numbers from travel?  Hot spots don’t have to be thousands of miles apart. 

If you light 15 fires in the US and 15 in Italy, wouldn’t you expect similar burn rates?  How similar would depend on other factors like type of wood, density of forest, rainfall, wind, etc.  but the larger forest doesn’t burn quicker just because it is larger  

it’s just a tough or impossible thing to measure. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Corona travels at the speed of light. IT IS KNOWN

A sneeze felt ‘round the world? 

[utee94 15745]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't make any of those assumptions. I was giving an example to illustrate why I believe the chart is of questionable merit. I agree that the infection can have multiple starting points. But, once it takes hold, that initial number isn't particularly meaningful. Again, if it takes each country the same amount of time to go from 1,000 infections to 10,000 infections, why would we think the larger country did something better? 

This is the same logic error you made before-- why do you believe it takes the same amount of time to go from 1,000 to 10,000 infections?  If I start 15 fires in that forest, or if I start from 15 major cities in the US, then it's going to take the US much less time to reach 10,000 infections, than it will for Italy where it's only blossoming from one or two distribution points.

Beyond that, we have no idea how long it ACTUALLY takes to get from any number of infections, to any other number of infections.  In the USA, and globally, testing capacity is the limiting factor.  Which is why deaths are really the only comparison you can make.

Just now, Brisketexan said:

 

False.  Those are CONFIRMED cases.  Europe has much more widespread testing -- their confirmed cases are much close to their actual cases.  Ours....not even close.

Right.  Again, this is why deaths are the only really meaningful statistic we can use.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You have over two thousand posts on the CR.

And show me a political post I've made in this thread. I've made many posts in this thread, and had no one accuse me of doing so other than one poster who  backed off after he had time to re read the thread.  

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

 
False.  Those are CONFIRMED cases.  Europe has much more widespread testing -- their confirmed cases are much close to their actual cases.  Ours....not even close.

True good point. We’re probably way over confirmed cases vs Europe with a lot less deaths

[gsoda3 3236]

16 hours ago, woohorn said:

Good time to buy an oil tanker or cargo ship though, huh?

those things are printing money right now.  rental prices are 2x and 3x normal rates with everyone looking for places to store oil.

[crash_davis 23084]

 

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Other observations about today's early data, Louisiana shows a slight jump in death toll, from from 34 to 37, but a massive jump in new cases, going from under 1200 yesterday to over 2700 today. That's more than 25% of their total confirmed cases in a day's worth of accounting.

Florida with 35% case jump day over day. 

In addition to Mardi Gras, I wonder if this asshole and his stupid fucking flock have anything to do with the increase?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-louisiana-life-tabernacle-church-packed-services-again-charges-against-pastor-tony-spell/

Flanked by some of his congregation, including children and older people, Spell emerged from the church later Tuesday night and said he is going to keep his church doors open. He said he doesn't consider doing that any different than keeping the doors of Walmart open. Spell also compared going to church to going to the hospital, but for spiritual healing.

"We are needy people. Our souls are lost," he said. "We need help, and the church is the salvation center of the soul, the sanctuary where we come together and meet."

Spell told CBS News that 1,265 people went to his church on Sunday, and he defended their assembly. "We have a constitutional right to congregate," Spell said in an email on Monday. "We will continue."

Edited April 2, 2020 by crash_davis

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

And show me a political post I've made in this thread. I've made many posts in this thread, and had no one accuse me of doing so other than one poster who  backed off after he had time to re read the thread.  

 

I didn't say you made a political post. I'm simply pointing out that certain people (mostly you, our thread's resident Karen, and a couple other guys) have posted more times about the Cloak Room in this thread than all other posters have actually made political posts combined. It's extra rich coming from you as one of the most prolific posters on that board. 

Essentially you and the snowflake crew have started using "CR Troll" as a label for anyone who hurts your feelings. Stop fucking crying.

Edited April 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[crash_davis 23084]

Yall can quit worrying about a cure. God's on it.

 

[NorthLoop 14092]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If you light 15 fires in the US and 15 in Italy, wouldn’t you expect similar burn rates?  How similar would depend on other factors like type of wood, density of forest, rainfall, wind, etc.  but the larger forest doesn’t burn quicker just because it is larger  

 

You're missing the point. BECAUSE the US is bigger both geographically and in population, we're gonna have more starting fires in this comparison every time. 

[closetojumping 62242]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

False.  Those are CONFIRMED cases.  Europe has much more widespread testing -- their confirmed cases are much close to their actual cases.  Ours....not even close.

 

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

True good point. We’re probably way over confirmed cases vs Europe with a lot less deaths

It's actually not a good point. A number of European countries stopped testing early and are barely reporting that part of it. Sweden, for example. Italy and Spain both admitted they stopped testing anyone who seemed like they had it and could just be sent home or asked to stay where they were. 

The "everyone is testing better than the US" trope is just that. There isn't a place in the god damned world right now that is taking more effort to test than various places throughout the country. Louisiana, Ohio, California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Maryland are for sure busting their ass on testing. It's pure bullshit to say that the US isn't testing. Places like Texas or Tennessee might not be testing well, but that's not the position being taken and repeated. 

It is a mixed bag in Europe and it is a mixed bag here, and both places are doing a better job of it than most other places around the world.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I didn't say you made a political post. I'm simply pointing out that certain people (mostly you, our thread's resident Karen, and a couple other guys) have posted more times about the Cloak Room in this thread than all other posters have actually made political posts combined.

Essentially you and the snowflake crew have started using "CR Troll" as a label for anyone who hurts your feelings. Stop fucking crying.

Yeah really ?  Nah,  but we can continue in PM not gonna fuck up this thread with your accusations.

[closetojumping 62242]

5 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

In addition to Mardi Gras, I wonder if this asshole and his stupid fucking flock have anything to do with the increase?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sec/2020/04/02/lsu-football-coach-ed-orgeron-wife-kelly-divorcing-23-years/5110584002/

Flanked by some of his congregation, including children and older people, Spell emerged from the church later Tuesday night and said he is going to keep his church doors open. He said he doesn't consider doing that any different than keeping the doors of Walmart open. Spell also compared going to church to going to the hospital, but for spiritual healing.

"We are needy people. Our souls are lost," he said. "We need help, and the church is the salvation center of the soul, the sanctuary where we come together and meet."

Spell told CBS News that 1,265 people went to his church on Sunday, and he defended their assembly. "We have a constitutional right to congregate," Spell said in an email on Monday. "We will continue."

You almost NowThis'd yourself with that link. I'm glad for your sake, you didn't, in any event.

[dcar00 14035]

We've probably got 10M+ that have had this or have this right now.  EuropeEU+UK) has likely twice as many

[Dahobbs 17447]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

This is the same logic error you made before-- why do you believe it takes the same amount of time to go from 1,000 to 10,000 infections?  If I start 15 fires in that forest, or if I start from 15 major cities in the US, then it's going to take the US much less time to reach 10,000 infections, than it will for Italy where it's only blossoming from one or two distribution points.

Beyond that, we have no idea how long it ACTUALLY takes to get from any number of infections, to any other number of infections.  In the USA, and globally, testing capacity is the limiting factor.  Which is why deaths are really the only comparison you can make.

 

You're the one making the reasoning error. Your first two sentences aren't logically connected. I agree, 15 fire will spread faster than 1 fire. But that wasn't the comparison I was making.

At some point in time each country will have "15 fires" to use your analogy. If it took each country 30 days to go from 15 fires to 1,000 fires, why would we think the country with the larger population handled the fires better? Go back and look at what that chart is actually depicting. It starts from when each country had 100 confirmed cases or, in this analogy, "100 fires." We know for certain don't we that, no matter what, the US was going to have lowest starting position on chart like that, right? 100/320 million vs 100/60 million vs 100/40 million. So, again, I ask, what meaningful information is that chart conveying? What is it telling us other than the relative population of each country? 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dahobbs