Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Brisketexan 105,105]

6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Spell told CBS News that 1,265 people went to his church on Sunday, and he defended their assembly. "We have a constitutional right to congregate," Spell said in an email on Monday. "We will continue."

They have every right to die for their faith.

They have zero right to make someone ELSE die for their faith.  

If they want to gather and create an infection petri dish, fine.  Chain the doors shut with them inside for a two week quarantine.

[crash_davis 23,107]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

You almost NowThis'd yourself with that link. I'm glad for your sake, you didn't, in any event.

Thanks. Corrected the link.

And doesn't every man desire to be pegged? is that wrong?

[closetojumping 62,636]

 

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah really ?  Nah,  but we can continue in PM not gonna fuck up this thread with your accusations.

hahahahaha. That fucking guy. I forgot about him. What a complete and utter whining imbecile. You're wasting your time with that rube.

[NoName 16,351]

Here is the Austin traffic congestion information from TomTom

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/austin-traffic/#statistics

Austin Graph for last 7 days:

 

DFW link: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/dallas-fort-worth-traffic/#statistics

Houston link: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/houston-traffic/#statistics

 

 

[Guadaloopy 10,964]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The Freakenomics dudes are having a field day with all this stuff.

https://freakonomics.com/

Haven’t spent much time in the car for the last month, so I am way behind on my podcast consumption.  This is one of my favorites.  I just binged the last three episodes and they are killing it. I can’t recommend it highly enough.  

[Dahobbs 17,534]

3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

You're missing the point. BECAUSE the US is bigger both geographically and in population, we're gonna have more starting fires in this comparison every time. 

No, you're misreading the chart. The starting point was "100 fires" for each country. 

[dcar00 14,181]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

It's actually not a good point. A number of European countries stopped testing early and are barely reporting that part of it. Sweden, for example. Italy and Spain both admitted they stopped testing anyone who seemed like they had it and could just be sent home or asked to stay where they were. 

The "everyone is testing better than the US" trope is just that. There isn't a place in the god damned world right now that is taking more effort to test than various places throughout the country. Louisiana, Ohio, California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and Maryland are for sure busting their ass on testing. It's pure bullshit to say that the US isn't testing. Places like Texas or Tennessee might not be testing well, but that's not the position being taken and repeated. 

It is a mixed bag in Europe and it is a mixed bag here, and both places are doing a better job of it than most other places around the world.

IMO, everyone is testing to a standard that you have to have multiple symptoms, particularly a fever, or known contact.

[NorthLoop 14,195]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, you're misreading the chart. The starting point was "100 fires" for each country. 

So you're saying that after the US had it's 100th case, NO NEW infections happened in the US that wasn't directly tied to any of those 100 cases. 

 

Again.. that's a really stupid assumption. 

[tbone_ 14,118]

Haven’t spent much time in the car for the last month, so I am way behind on my podcast consumption.  This is one of my favorites.  I just binged the last three episodes and they are killing it. I can’t recommend it highly enough.  

What are their conclusions?

[dcar00 14,181]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They have every right to die for their faith.

They have zero right to make someone ELSE die for their faith.  

If they want to gather and create an infection petri dish, fine.  Chain the doors shut with them inside for a two week quarantine.

 

10 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Yall can quit worrying about a cure. God's on it.

 

the guy on the right is trying to work the jedi mind trick on the virus.  "Covid19, earth is not the host you are looking for"

[Guadaloopy 10,964]

Just now, tbone_ said:

What are their conclusions?

One of my favorite thing about the podcast is it doesn’t usually reach a conclusion.  They ask questions and then ask a lot of smart people for their answers.  “Exploring the hidden side of everything” is their motto.  

[JesusSweatDuck 17,781]

11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You almost NowThis'd yourself with that link. I'm glad for your sake, you didn't, in any event.

I'm not, I would have laughed and laughed and laughed.

[Anastasis 23,469]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

Seems reasonable. Problem is that many areas (like Texas) are not projected to peak until May or later.  The leading states like NY, NJ will have peaked in mid April.  I am concerned that loosening the national guidelines too early will result in a loss of contain in the states on a more prolonged trajectory, spiking flare ups and fucking us sideways into the summer.  

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

14 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

You're missing the point. BECAUSE the US is bigger both geographically and in population, we're gonna have more starting fires in this comparison every time. 

That’s an assumption that I understand but am not necessarily ready to presume as fact.  

[B00M 6,415]

8 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So you're saying that after the US had it's 100th case, NO NEW infections happened in the US that wasn't directly tied to any of those 100 cases. 

 

Again.. that's a really stupid assumption. 

Can we get back to news and shit please? Your tiff is neither interesting nor informative.

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by B00M

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, you're misreading the chart. The starting point was "100 fires" for each country. 

Known fires

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

9 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So you're saying that after the US had it's 100th case, NO NEW infections happened in the US that wasn't directly tied to any of those 100 cases. 

 

Again.. that's a really stupid assumption. 

And Italy didn’t as well?

[Dahobbs 17,534]

Just now, NorthLoop said:

So you're saying that after the US had it's 100th case, NO NEW infections happened in the US that wasn't directly tied to any of those 100 cases. 

 

Again.. that's a really stupid assumption. 

I don't know that I assumed anything, I'm just telling you what the chart actually reflects. You're the one assuming that foreign infected people (1) apparently only affect the US, (2) arrived in significant enough numbers to affect the chart, and (3) despite their arrival, the US numbers miraculously stayed exactly where we'd expect them if that huge influx of foreign infected people hadn't occurred. 

Let's ignore the starting point. Let's go to 10,000 infections. Can we agree at that point that newly arrived foreign infected people are going to simply be a rounding error (e.g., no significant difference between 10,000 and 10,050 infections)? So, again, I ask, if it takes each country the exact same amount of time to get from 10,000 infections to 20,000 infections, why would we think the larger country was doing anything better? 

[NorthLoop 14,195]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And Italy didn’t as well?

Likely not as many as us

[Brisketexan 105,105]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems reasonable. Problem is that many areas (like Texas) are not projected to peak until May or later.  The leading states like NY, NJ will have peaked in mid April.  I am concerned that loosening the national guidelines too early will result in a loss of contain in the states on a more prolonged trajectory, spiking flare ups and fucking us sideways into the summer.  

It's why we need a centralized strategy and command-and-control structure.  Half-assing this, letting one jurisdiction do things shitty and let loose super-spreaders on the rest of the country, etc....not a good strategy.  A comprehensive approach that takes the circumstances of each state/locale into account, with a master strategy for distancing etc., is really, really important.

I won't go CR.  I'll just note that what we need....we don't have.

[ABSR 5,310]

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s cheap labor elsewhere in the world. 
hey baby! You got manufacturing facility Vietnam?

Me manufacture Loooong time!

[BradInATX 9,208]

20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

hahahahaha. That fucking guy. I forgot about him. What a complete and utter whining imbecile. You're wasting your time with that rube.

I'm not sure you have quite enough "ha"s in there to really get your point across.

I thought you ignored me after I batted you around hundreds of pages ago?

Edited April 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[utee94 15,820]

29 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You're the one making the reasoning error. Your first two sentences aren't logically connected. I agree, 15 fire will spread faster than 1 fire. But that wasn't the comparison I was making.

At some point in time each country will have "15 fires" to use your analogy. If it took each country 30 days to go from 15 fires to 1,000 fires, why would we think the country with the larger population handled the fires better? Go back and look at what that chart is actually depicting. It starts from when each country had 100 confirmed cases or, in this analogy, "100 fires." We know for certain don't we that, no matter what, the US was going to have lowest starting position on chart like that, right? 100/320 million vs 100/60 million vs 100/40 million. So, again, I ask, what meaningful information is that chart conveying? What is it telling us other than the relative population of each country? 

You keep using "cases" which doesn't work.  Not all countries have the same access, the same capacity, the same requirements, the same methodology, the same protocols.  The only statistic we can use that has any chance of rational comparison, is deaths.

 

17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s an assumption that I understand but am not necessarily ready to presume as fact.  

It might make it easier for you if you think of the USA as 50 states, rather than one country.  it's not a terrible stretch, because that's how we've approached it.

Alternatively, you can think of the USA having 15 fires burning, while Italy has 3, Spain has 4, France has 3, the UK has 3, and Germany has 2.  That would be another reasonable way to frame it.

Edited April 2, 2020 by utee94

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I thought you ignored me after I batted you around hundreds of pages ago?

The only thing you’ve batted around the past few weeks is your own clitoris.

[Anastasis 23,469]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

It's why we need a centralized strategy and command-and-control structure.  Half-assing this, letting one jurisdiction do things shitty and let loose super-spreaders on the rest of the country, etc....not a good strategy.  A comprehensive approach that takes the circumstances of each state/locale into account, with a master strategy for distancing etc., is really, really important.

I won't go CR.  I'll just note that what we need....we don't have.

Over reliance on a centralized bureaucracy at the CDC and FDA played a role in where we are in terms of the breakdown of testing strategy.  I am not sure what the right answer is, other than politicians need to stfu and public health professionals need to be driving the decision making.  The response needs to be coordinated, but not necessarily centralized in DC, imo. Comprehensive, yes. Driven by the medical professionals, yes.  

[Dahobbs 17,534]

6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You keep using "cases" which doesn't work.  Not all countries have the same access, the same capacity, the same requirements, the same methodology, the same protocols.  The only statistic we can use that has any chance or rational comparison, is deaths.

Me? That is what the chart is based off (i.e., each country's confirmed cases as a percentage of total population on y axis, with days from 100 confirmed cases on the x axis). I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but all that does is even further question the usefulness of the chart. I don't see why my post deserved a neg. I'm genuinely asking anyone to tell me what useful information is being portrayed in that chart.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dahobbs

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

The only thing you’ve batted around the past few weeks is your own clitoris.

Still have no idea who you are or why you're obsessively following me around trying to get my attention. 

 

😂😂😂

CTJ is now responding to me "via proxy"  in the post below this because he's too arrogant to let my comments pass but he's also too arrogant to admit he lied when he said he put me on his ignore list.

Classic CTJ.

Edited April 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[closetojumping 62,636]

1 minute ago, Casual Encounter said:

The only thing you’ve batted around the past few weeks is your own clitoris.

Was he responded to me? He's too dense to even realize he had his ass kicked, that's a big reason why I put him on ignore. It's not fun. It's also further evidenced here by the fact that the dumb fuck didn't understand I was responding to what someone else posted, that included his quote. Holy shit.

[dcar00 14,181]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Over reliance on a centralized bureaucracy at the CDC and FDA played a role in where we are in terms of the breakdown of testing strategy.  I am not sure what the right answer is, other than politicians need to stfu and public health professionals need to be driving the decision making.  The response needs to be coordinated, but not necessarily centralized in DC, imo. Comprehensive, yes. Driven by the medical professionals, yes.  

The CDC(medical professionals) made the call to do their own test and fucked it up on initial roll out.

[InkaUtexas 25,915]

France reissuing numbers. DAAAAMMMM.. 

 

[dcar00 14,181]

when we reopen the olds need to be lockeddown.

[ABSR 5,310]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Should have answered the door in a gas mask with a can of Lysol in your hand 

And wearing nothing else.   Tell him you seem to have misplaced your keys and ask him to check your "pockets" for them.  This will likely end him asking you about this, OR you will make a new "very special friend."

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

The CDC(medical professionals) made the call to do their own test and fucked it up on initial roll out.

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

when we reopen the olds need to be lockeddown.

Ding ding ding!!!!! 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

when we reopen the olds need to be lockeddown.

Agreed. Someone’s gonna have to teach them to zoom

[utee94 15,820]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Me? That is what the chart is based off (i.e., each country's confirmed cases as a percentage of total population on y axis, with days from 100 confirmed cases on the x axis). I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but all that does is even further question the usefulness of the chart. I don't see why my post deserved a neg. I'm genuinely asking anyone to tell me what useful information is being portrayed in that chart.

Just tagging you back every time you do it to me.  If you'd like to stop, I'm all for that.

I certainly agree with the questionable usefulness of most of the charts that are posted here.

The only chart I'm actually interested in seeing, is our own USA death rates, to determine if/when we turn a corner and start flattening it out.

But for those that insist on comparing the USA to Europe, then the only valid comparison is the one I proposed-- deaths (offset by days since ___ in order to align the timing), per capita.  Or alternatively, compare the USA's absolute number, to that of UK + Germany + Italy + France + Spain

[bschoolprof 6,252]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't know that I assumed anything, I'm just telling you what the chart actually reflects. You're the one assuming that foreign infected people (1) apparently only affect the US, (2) arrived in significant enough numbers to affect the chart, and (3) despite their arrival, the US numbers miraculously stayed exactly where we'd expect them if that huge influx of foreign infected people hadn't occurred. 

Let's ignore the starting point. Let's go to 10,000 infections. Can we agree at that point that newly arrived foreign infected people are going to simply be a rounding error (e.g., no significant difference between 10,000 and 10,050 infections)? So, again, I ask, if it takes each country the exact same amount of time to get from 10,000 infections to 20,000 infections, why would we think the larger country was doing anything better? 

I think the basic idea is we want # infections in a country scaled by something that controls for all the potential human exposure in that country.  In the simple example of patient zero being in a single geographic place, radiating out and infecting 1 to 100 to 1000, I agree it probably doesn't make sense to take 1,000 and divide by the population of the country, because (controlling for density and lack of travel) the 1,000 would have been infected in a similar time frame whether the country had 2,000 residents or  2 billion.

But the US has many more large metro and semi metro areas with foreign or domestic travel than Italy or Spain. Any most of those large metro areas in the US we see as hotspots when we drill down on the worldometers data that all get counted toward the US total would be in different countries in Europe.  Put another way, suppose 4 guys from Wuhan go to Milan, Paris, NYC, and Detroit in December and we see the same spreading from "patient 0" in each place.  The US is going to have twice as many cases as Italy or France in that scenario, and that doesn't even account for the opportunity for domestic travel spreading within US borders. Or put another way, the virus doesn't respect the national borders that we do in our tallies.  

[Brisketexan 105,105]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Over reliance on a centralized bureaucracy at the CDC and FDA played a role in where we are in terms of the breakdown of testing strategy.  I am not sure what the right answer is, other than politicians need to stfu and public health professionals need to be driving the decision making.  The response needs to be coordinated, but not necessarily centralized in DC, imo. Comprehensive, yes. Driven by the medical professionals, yes.  

Don't disagree with any of this.  

A good executive assembles the right team, and gives them a shitload of autonomy.  But this situation does not respect any borders (international, state, etc.).  Treating it as a "Texas problem" or a "New York problem" is a doomed strategy from the start.  Yes, public health officials need to be driving the decisions -- but the tools and powers lie in the politicians' hands.  They just need to use them appropriately.

Chief Brody knows what's up with respect to beach safety and sharks.  The mayor of Amity should listen to him, and take the appropriate action, because the mayor has the power to do so -- as to the entire village, not just one stretch of beach.

[UT_OB1 2,218]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Still have no idea who you are or why you're obsessively following me around trying to get my attention. 

 

😂😂😂

CTJ is now responding to me "via proxy"  in the post below this because he's too arrogant to let my comments pass but he's also too arrogant to admit he lied when he said he put me on his ignore list.

Classic CTJ.

Remember a few weeks ago when you were talking about the covered up cases in Austin and how the hospitals we’re going to be overrun in less than a week?  And you wouldn’t be able to get an icu bed or ventilator?  
 

Then you disappeared. Can you disappear again?  

[InkaUtexas 25,915]

Hong Kong surging. 

The number of local infections in Hong Kong has increased by 80% to 103 over the past week from 57 the week before, raising the risk of a large-scale community outbreak in the city.

According to the Center for Health Protection, the number of people who were infected with the Covid-19 virus during the week ended April 1 was 355, 103 or 29% of whom had no travel history. The number of people who were infected during the week ended March 25 was 218, 57 or 26% of whom had no travel history.

[Pato del Muerto 52,490]

One thing is certain, our death rate looks good compared to these euros and Iran and China, and the euros probably have better case reporting so ours is likely artificially higher relative to true than theirs are. So we got that going for us, which is nice. 
As long as we don’t accelerate and catch up to them. That would be bad. 

[Dahobbs 17,534]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Just tagging you back every time you do it to me.  If you'd like to stop, I'm all for that.

I certainly agree with the questionable usefulness of most of the charts that are posted here.

The only chart I'm actually interested in seeing, is our own USA death rates, to determine if/when we turn a corner and start flattening it out.

But for those that insist on comparing the USA to Europe, then the only valid comparison is the one I proposed-- deaths (offset by days since ___ in order to align the timing), per capita.  Or alternatively, compare the USA's absolute number, to that of UK + Germany + Italy + France + Spain

Oh, I agree with that. It makes more sense to do it that way. 

P.S. I haven't negged you. Those are the "confusion" reactions and are neutral. 

[Hate 20,108]

The CDC(medical professionals) made the call to do their own test and fucked it up on initial roll out.

Yes they did, but it may have been worse if they had used the fucked up Chinese tests already in use.

[InkaUtexas 25,915]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't disagree with any of this.  

A good executive assembles the right team, and gives them a shitload of autonomy.  But this situation does not respect any borders (international, state, etc.).  Treating it as a "Texas problem" or a "New York problem" is a doomed strategy from the start.  Yes, public health officials need to be driving the decisions -- but the tools and powers lie in the politicians' hands.  They just need to use them appropriately.

Chief Brody knows what's up with respect to beach safety and sharks.  The mayor of Amity should listen to him, and take the appropriate action, because the mayor has the power to do so -- as to the entire village, not just one stretch of beach.

If we were only doing it at the State level. NGO I worked with reached out to the State today offering support. The response was that is a local issue. In Louisiana they reached out to New Orleans and were told this was a State level issue. And what they are offering is real and needed. Shitty time for every team to have a different playbook. 

[Dahobbs 17,534]

3 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I think the basic idea is we want # infections in a country scaled by something that controls for all the potential human exposure in that country.  In the simple example of patient zero being in a single geographic place, radiating out and infecting 1 to 100 to 1000, I agree it probably doesn't make sense to take 1,000 and divide by the population of the country, because (controlling for density and lack of travel) the 1,000 would have been infected in a similar time frame whether the country had 2,000 residents or  2 billion.

But the US has many more large metro and semi metro areas with foreign or domestic travel than Italy or Spain. Any most of those large metro areas in the US we see as hotspots when we drill down on the worldometers data that all get counted toward the US total would be in different countries in Europe.  Put another way, suppose 4 guys from Wuhan go to Milan, Paris, NYC, and Detroit in December and we see the same spreading from "patient 0" in each place.  The US is going to have twice as many cases as Italy or France in that scenario, and that doesn't even account for the opportunity for domestic travel spreading within US borders. Or put another way, the virus doesn't respect the national borders that we do in our tallies.  

Oh sure, and I assume that is part of the reason the chart started at 100 confirmed cases rather 1. The difference between 100 and 105 is relatively minor, so you'd expect that foreign traveler thing to wash out in the numbers. It is certainly good that we haven't eclipsed Spain or Italy as a percentage of the population, so I guess the chart shows that. 

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hong Kong surging. 

The number of local infections in Hong Kong has increased by 80% to 103 over the past week from 57 the week before, raising the risk of a large-scale community outbreak in the city.

According to the Center for Health Protection, the number of people who were infected with the Covid-19 virus during the week ended April 1 was 355, 103 or 29% of whom had no travel history. The number of people who were infected during the week ended March 25 was 218, 57 or 26% of whom had no travel history.

Between this and Tokyo... not great. The Daily podcast had Dr. Fauci on and he said that "normal" returns when we get a vaccine because of this reason.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

25 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Still have no idea who you are or why you're obsessively following me around trying to get my attention.

Well, I have been known to chase pussy. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Casual Encounter

[Skipper 6,135]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

One thing is certain, our death rate looks good compared to these euros and Iran and China, and the euros probably have better case reporting so ours is likely artificially higher relative to true than theirs are. So we got that going for us, which is nice. 
As long as we don’t accelerate and catch up to them. That would be bad. 

You realize death is a lagging indicator right?  There are a lot of guaranteed future deaths baked into the numbers every time more cases are reported.  Particularly since the "confirmed" numbers are going to trend towards serious cases rather than mild cases given testing limitations in most place.That's why you are starting to see death numbers increase daily in hardest hit areas. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Well, I have been know to chase pussy. 

Damn..

[dcar00 14,181]

Just now, Hate said:

Yes they did, but it may have been worse if they had used the fucked up Chinese tests already in use.

agreed but the choice was use what WHO had put out as the German test process.  we were never going to use the Chinese tests. we did our own, per CDC recomendation and probably cost us 1.5-2 weeks.

my point was everyone screaming about medical professionals not fucking up, let them handle this, yada yada hair on fire...yeah about that.