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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65393

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Idk but this is what I’m talking about. That IHME projection had 58k hospital beds being needed today. But, cumulative hospitalizations, including people already discharged is 20,800. So way off. Sounds like some good news. 
 

that’s for New York State. 

The Imperial shit was always fucking trash, but it was a treasure trove at the time for people who wanted to ardently scream that this was the end of times while plugging their ears and closing their eyes to avoid hearing anything else. 

10 hours ago, WBT said:

That's not really the arguments that I've read here the last couple of days.  It's more like some doomsdayers are still predicting doomsday and others are saying the mitigation efforts are helping...as they should or why would we be doing them?  I could have missed something though.

This is exactly correct. No one here other than the occasional random nut that passes through has ever said nothing should be done. Flat out, that take, and it will become a go-to for a number of folks, is pure bullshit. What has been repeatedly argued is that what needs to be done will be done, and it will pull the numbers down. That doomsday crew has responded repeatedly with “It’s science. The numbers are the numbers. You keep your opinions and fantasies, and I’ll trust my curves.” This has happened as recently as yesterday and was out in its full regalia as recently as Wednesday. 

The problem with the doomsdayers is that they’re the same lot that states regularly and openly that people are pure fucking idiotic trash and too stupid to live. What they’re really saying is that the people who challenge them and the numbers and theories that they’ve become religious about are the trashy idiots. So yeah, if we don’t see 50,000 deaths over the next 13 days, the narrative will continue to swing towards “we had to do this, you fucking idiots, or what we were saying would have happened!” Who are they going to be arguing with that didn’t think shit needed to be done on this site? I don’t know. 

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Iceman

Iceman 2978

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Sue me.  I was like eleventy billion sheets to the wind by the time I posted that.

They were both worth watching again during quarantine days, even for a non-Horn.

 

Just giving you hell.  Bravo for drunk posting.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65393

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Hey fuck off you piece of shit. My comment was in the context of if it has been stated by the president, you know it’s serious. But way to go cherry picking half a sentence from a very long and neutral post. You continue to be half a fucking retard in this thread, and trying to make something political when my post was anything but. So feel free to go get fucked by one of your cloakroom buddies, shitbag. 

Captainant continues to deliver a virtuoso performance and it continues to go virtually unrecognized. He’s casting pearls before swine here, and I feel sorry for him. Tales will be told of his genius only long after he’s gone. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Iceman said:

They were both worth watching again during quarantine days, even for a non-Horn.

No kidding. I was scrolling twitter trends last night and the game was trending in the top ten. Pretty cool.

 

The doomsayer/nondoomsayer fight will never be resolved as long as people want to stay divisive about it. Not necessarily in this forum, but in general that fissure is opportunity for money to be made--as awful as that sounds.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13727

Posted
Posted

You can only imagine that poorer countries like Ecuador are going to have outrageous fatality rates if this gets a stronghold in their cities. In America, we complain that the govt isn't buying ventilators at a fast enough pace. Do we really think that poor countries have the resources to buy them at volume.  And they definitely are not going to put expensive equipment in poor towns or areas.

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ABSR

ABSR 5369

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Okie State said:

I'm sure it's already been discussed, but I'm keeping an eye on Sweden. They have taken a pretty hands off approach so far and some think it's about to blow up in their face.

I have a former co-worker who was in the US, but moved back to Sweden 9 months ago with his family.  I recently reached out and gave our update and wished he and his family well.  He said his mother was not going out, but that everything was open (Schools, restaurants, bars) and that everyone but elderly were just going along with business as usual.

So yeah, I see a big problem in Sweden's future.

I also volunteer for any needed chest compression, chest massages, person-to-person ventilation, etc that the young ladies of Sweden may need.  I may get infected, but I will go out doing what I love best!   

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Digdogger

Digdogger 1345

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ABSR said:

I have a former co-worker who was in the US, but moved back to Sweden 9 months ago with his family.  I recently reached out and gave our update and wished he and his family well.  He said his mother was not going out, but that everything was open (Schools, restaurants, bars) and that everyone but elderly were just going along with business as usual.

So yeah, I see a big problem in Sweden's future.

I also volunteer for any needed chest compression, chest massages, person-to-person ventilation, etc that the young ladies of Sweden may need.  I may get infected, but I will go out doing what I love best!   

Will see if the Allen Wrench is a strong deterrent of Coronavirus or not

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Fondren & Main

Fondren & Main 6895

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Ive seen this mentioned only a handful of time now but if there’s been more details I’ve missed it. How exactly has the hydrocholonique done more harm than good? I’ve seen side effects mentioned but they seem like no big deal. So whats the downside here? Because I haven’t seen shit. 

I used to have to take Plaquenil.  I know that it can fuck up your eyes.  I had to see an ophthalmologist monthly while on it.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18311

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The Imperial shit was always fucking trash, but it was a treasure trove at the time for people who wanted to ardently scream that this was the end of times while plugging their ears and closing their eyes to avoid hearing anything else. 

This is exactly correct. No one here other than the occasional random nut that passes through has ever said nothing should be done. Flat out, that take, and it will become a go-to for a number of folks, is pure bullshit. What has been repeatedly argued is that what needs to be done will be done, and it will pull the numbers down. That doomsday crew has responded repeatedly with “It’s science. The numbers are the numbers. You keep your opinions and fantasies, and I’ll trust my curves.” This has happened as recently as yesterday and was out in its full regalia as recently as Wednesday. 

The problem with the doomsdayers is that they’re the same lot that states regularly and openly that people are pure fucking idiotic trash and too stupid to live. What they’re really saying is that the people who challenge them and the numbers and theories that they’ve become religious about are the trashy idiots. So yeah, if we don’t see 50,000 deaths over the next 13 days, the narrative will continue to swing towards “we had to do this, you fucking idiots, or what we were saying would have happened!” Who are they going to be arguing with that didn’t think shit needed to be done on this site? I don’t know. 

I know you don't like facts, but IHME and the Imperial College of London are different things. 

Here is the IHME study: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Notably, IHME is "The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)" located at the University of Washington." The purpose of the study is to predict needed healthcare resources based on current actions. The model is constantly revised as new data comes in. 

The Imperial College of London is, as the name suggests, in London and not Washington. The purpose of its report (here) was to model outcomes of the pandemic based on a variety of actions (e.g., doing nothing, mitigation, and suppression) in order to inform policy decisions. The worst outcomes were never meant to be a predictor of what would happen if we took action, but to provide a baseline so that an informed decision could be made. 

 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3873

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Loco said:

Florida gonna Florida.  After a splashy press conference were the Governor finally issued a state wide "Safer at home" order...  The Governor quietly signed a second order weakening cities and counties existing orders.

tl/dr   Governor limits local counties and cities ability to determine shelter in place rules and identify essential businesses.   Only the state order, which is significantly weaker than those already in place in the most effected counties, can be enforced.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-desantis-second-order-local-impact-20200403-sipn6s23tfc73motnyoz3j562y-story.html

Just in time for Easter!

Disney, Universal, the cruise industry, airlines, and all other tourism businesses need to tell that moron no donations until a mandatory 4 week statewide SIP order is issued.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65393

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I know you don't like facts, but IHME and the Imperial College of London are different things. 

Here is the IHME study: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Notably, IHME is "The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)" located at the University of Washington." The purpose of the study is to predict needed healthcare resources based on current actions. The model is constantly revised as new data comes in. 

The Imperial College of London is, as the name suggests, in London and not Washington. The purpose of its report (here) was to model outcomes of the pandemic based on a variety of actions (e.g., doing nothing, mitigation, and suppression) in order to inform policy decisions. The worst outcomes were never meant to be a predictor of what would happen if we took action, but to provide a baseline so that an informed decision could be made. 

 

Ohhh, busted! It couldn't have just been "I think you're thinking of a different model". 

My bad on getting the models confused in the post. 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted

So no discussion of Frances numbers from yesterday, or did I miss it?  They ordered their “lockdown” on 3/15. According to the worldometer site their deaths almost tripled yesterday. Was this a backlog on cause of death declaration, or are we riding this exponential up to 10k dead per day by Tuesday?

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8886

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, immamac said:

This seems on track for the most part. Please report posts that have people just throwing shit at each other and I'll split those to a new thread to keep this clean. Being an asshole isn't against the rules, but for the sake of readability it's best to separate that out of this thread. 

Heck, I thought it was a prerequisite to post here, lulz

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

So no discussion of Frances numbers from yesterday, or did I miss it?  They ordered their “lockdown” on 3/15. According to the worldometer site their deaths almost tripled yesterday. Was this a backlog on cause of death declaration, or are we riding this exponential up to 10k dead per day by Tuesday?

Backlog from nursing home deaths 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18311

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

So no discussion of Frances numbers from yesterday, or did I miss it?  They ordered their “lockdown” on 3/15. According to the worldometer site their deaths almost tripled yesterday. Was this a backlog on cause of death declaration, or are we riding this exponential up to 10k dead per day by Tuesday?

France added in nursing home deaths regardless of when they occurred. They did it all in one big batch. 

 On April 2, France reported 884 additional deaths that have occurred in nursing homes over the past days and weeks [source]. The French Government did not include these deaths in their official count, as their count only takes into consideration deaths of hospitalized patients. Following international standards of correct inclusion, our statistics will include these deaths, and will add them to the April 2, 2020 count following the attribution criteria of date of report.

If and when the French government determines and communicates the correct distribution of these additional deaths over time, we will adjust the historical data accordingly. A similar issue took place on February 12, when China reported an additional 13,332 new cases in a single day due to a change in how cases were diagnosed and reported in Hubei.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-toll/frances-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-to-nearly-5400-as-nursing-homes-included-idUSKBN21K31I

https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted

Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):

For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?

Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1298

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

I have a close friend who was just confirmed positive for CV19 and he was given a treatment of zpack/hydrochloroquine. I hope this works for him, he's only 39.

When the cases started popping off in Texas, he was at Stone Oak Methodist being treated for a rare case Guillain-Barre. Since his release from the hospital he went to Costco on 281/1604 and HEB in Schertz.

I was just at that fucking Costco a few days ago........fuck me NowThis style.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13727

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

I believe Houston officials know the problem is much worse than reported. It seems highly unlikely that Houston has a 1/3 of cases are in ICUs. And since the ICU count is known, the number of cases is the fake news.  I don't think anyone is lying, it's just that Houston doesn't have many tests available.  

 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

So no actual data on admissions or ICU stays. The “jump in admissions” is just a few nurses s sources. And the officials they quote say we have plenty of space still. So click bait?  At least give some actual sourced data if the claim is going to be made

Edited by UT_OB1
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jeevsie

jeevsie 3789

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

So no discussion of Frances numbers from yesterday, or did I miss it?  They ordered their “lockdown” on 3/15. According to the worldometer site their deaths almost tripled yesterday. Was this a backlog on cause of death declaration, or are we riding this exponential up to 10k dead per day by Tuesday?

Lighten up, Frances.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14464

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):

For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?

Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?

Nobody here knows because everyone on Surly makes more than that. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

I have a close friend who was just confirmed positive for CV19 and he was given a treatment of zpack/hydrochloroquine. I hope this works for him, he's only 39.

When the cases started popping off in Texas, he was at Stone Oak Methodist being treated for a rare case Guillain-Barre. Since his release from the hospital he went to Costco on 281/1604 and HEB in Schertz.

I was just at that fucking Costco a few days ago........fuck me NowThis style.

Stop going to buy groceries in person. It’s stupid and not necessary, unless you’re 90 years old and can’t operate an iPhone. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):

For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?

Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?

From the calculators I’ve seen the child credit is income based too. You’re not likely to get anything.

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dcar00

dcar00 14948

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

So no actual data on admissions or ICU stays. The “jump in admissions” is just a few nurses s sources. And the officials they quote say we have plenty of space still. So click bait?  At least give some actual sourced data if the claim is going to be made

there is a shit ton of of click bait going on.  

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Okie State

Okie State 3889

Posted
Posted



Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):
For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?
Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?


There are online calculators that let you put in your filing status, AGI, and number of dependents. Of course it doesn't say anything about how the dependent portion is calculated. It seems as though you get at least part of it even if you're phased out of the $1200 checks. Who knows what will actually come through though.
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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

From the calculators I’ve seen the child credit is income based too. You’re not likely to get anything.

There’s a calculator on CNN where you enter income and # of kids.  It drops very steeply as income rises.  I think $217,750 family income is the top and the check is $5 or something.  
 

EDIT: Found it-

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/politics/stimulus-check-calculator/index.html

Edited by Liquor and Poker
Found it
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Treefidy

Treefidy 1507

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):

For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?

Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?

Don't know the answer to that, but the exclusion of dependent kids between ages 17-24 us pure bullshit.  

I promise those of you with young kids, they are a LOT more expensive when they hit college.  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Are we allowed to talk about the strategic stockpile of viral supplies on this thread?  Or is science and logistics too politicky?  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

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bolverk

bolverk 30320

Posted
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Posted
46 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The problem with the doomsdayers is that they’re the same lot that states regularly and openly that people are pure fucking idiotic trash and too stupid to live. What they’re really saying is that the people who challenge them and the numbers and theories that they’ve become religious about are the trashy idiots. So yeah, if we don’t see 50,000 deaths over the next 13 days, the narrative will continue to swing towards “we had to do this, you fucking idiots, or what we were saying would have happened!” Who are they going to be arguing with that didn’t think shit needed to be done on this site? I don’t know. 

What you fail to acknowledge is that there is a contingent, here and out in the real world, who consistently downplay the risk to public health that this virus had (and still has) the potential to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans due to the simple fact that humans have no immunity to it. Whatever their motivations, and I don't pretend to understand them, we still have folks who stubbornly refuse to take the advice of healthcare professionals and threaten to put the rest of America at risk by doing stupid shit like disobeying directives and inviting thousands back into close quarters at megachurches and that cult college in Virginia.

As far as predictions, I quite frankly refuse to even hazard a guess the eventual total as it all depends on our collective will to take action and do what is necessary. A simple mathematical model suggesting an exponential increase in cases and resultant deaths is simply a baseline to work from. But, at this point, there are way too many variables to come up with a reasonable figure due to all the variable associated with the uncoordinated responses in this nation. One can reasonably assume, however, that we're likely going to be playing a game of whack-a-mole across the country with this virus until a vaccine is eventually developed, and it is the fucking naysayers who are going to prolong this shit. 

Don't enable those magical thinking idiots.

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