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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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achooloco

achooloco 1086

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Please read: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

 

“One scenario is that we go through a pandemic,” as the current outbreak may become, said Columbia’s Morse. “Then, depending what the virus does, it could quite possibly settle down into a respiratory illness that comes back seasonally.”

The toll that would take depends on how many people it infects and how virulent it is. Virulence reflects the viruses’ genetics.

The genome of the novel coronavirus consists of a single strand of RNA. Microbes with that kind of genome mutate “notoriously quickly,” said biologist Michael Farzan of Scripps Research, who in 2005 was part of the team that identified the structure of the “spike protein” by which SARS enters human cells.

But SARS has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and the new coronavirus’s similarity to SARS at the genomic level suggests it does, too. “That makes the mutation rate much, much lower than for flu or HIV,” Farzan said. That lowers the chance that the virus will evolve in some catastrophic way to, say, become significantly more lethal.

The coronavirus “may not change [genetically] at all” in a way that alters function, said biologist Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, who has been analyzing the genomes of the 2019-nCoV’s from dozens of patients. “It is transmitting quite well already so it may not have to ‘evolve’ to be endemic.”

Any evolution that does take place in an endemic coronavirus, including one that spikes seasonally, might well be toward less virulence. “It doesn’t want to kill you before you transmit it,” Farzan said. “One would therefore expect a slow attenuation” of virulence if the virus becomes like seasonal flu. Dead people don’t transmit viruses, “and even people sitting in their beds and shivering” because they are seriously ill “don’t transmit that well,” he said.

The toll of a seasonal-flu-like coronavirus also depends on immunity — which is also scientifically uncertain. Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza, Webby said, but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes...

 

How widespread even limited immunity would be, and therefore how many people would become ill from the next go-round of 2019-nCoV, also “depends on how many people get infected the first time around,” Webby said. That number is certainly higher than the more than 20,000 identified cases, since people with no or mild symptoms escape the attention of health care systems.

Since 2019-nCoV is new, “this first wave will be particularly bad because we have an immunologically naïve population,” Adalja said. Future waves should pass by people who were exposed (but not necessarily sickened) this time around, Morse said, “but that assumes this virus doesn’t develop the tricks of flu,” which famously tweaks the surface molecules that the immune system can see, making itself invisible to antibodies from previous exposures.

Surly response: so we don’t know shit yet

Human response: cool, Various possibilities, thanks for posting. 

side note though: did not know that sars was viewed as so .. horrible? Deadly? Guess maybe we got lucky it wasn’t so virulent? Crazy world out there 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90641

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Spoke with a friend who is an RN, and she’s really wondering why the US has only tested 414, given how many traveled from China between December and January.   She sounded like she was veering into conspiracy territory, but she’s right.  We have tested so few compared to Canada and elsewhere.  

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Spoke with a friend who is an RN, and she’s really wondering why the US has only tested 414, given how many traveled from China between December and January.   She sounded like she was veering into conspiracy territory, but she’s right.  We have tested so few compared to Canada and elsewhere.  

[ALEX]Problem, Reaction, Solution.  They have to let it get bad enough here so the NWO can declare Martial Law.  America, destroyed by design![JONES]

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Parliament

Parliament 14593

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That South Korean church that was Coronavirus's vector into that nation?  Kinda sketchy.

At least 182 Covid-19 cases have come from the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the city of Daegu, which is the fourth-largest in the country. The group itself is often considered a cult in South Korea by mainstream churches: it was founded in 1984 by Lee Man-hee, who claims he is the second coming of Jesus.

On the fourth day of her stay, she developed a fever, but refused to get checked for the virus because she hadn’t traveled abroad or been in contact with anyone contaminated. She was finally tested on Monday, and on Tuesday she received positive results. Up until that point, she had slipped out of the hospital at least four times to attend services that attracted up to 1,000 people.

Shincheonji’s method of worshipping during these services could have contributed to the spread of the virus among its congregation, according to the Korea Center for Disease Control. Members are expected to kneel in tight rows and aren’t allowed to cover their faces with items like glasses or face masks.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/22/21148477/coronavirus-south-korea-shincheonji-church-jesus

 

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NaTeWHO

NaTeWHO 870

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, achooloco said:

worst case is that ...well not sure. you get it, recover but more than likely kill your very old or very young relatives if you don't adequately self quarantine? die instead? or is it still tbd?

i'm wondering b/c it seems if it is that lethal for olds and youngs

Everything I've seen points to it only being particularly lethal to old people, not young. If this data is correct, not one kid under 9 has died from this.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Link

Here's another article.

NPR

 

Edited by NaTeWHO
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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18447

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12 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

Everything I've seen points to it only being particularly lethal to old people, not young. If this data is correct, not one kid under 9 has died from this.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Link

Here's another article.

NPR

 

It is also more fatal for men than women, right?  Not to get into the politics or theology of it, but it’s interesting to consider the potential impact of this pandemic burning through the US before November.  There’s a massive correlation between fatality rate and support for Trump by age / gender group.  
 

Plagues have changed the course of history before.  It’s feasible this one could as well.  We live in interesting times.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 41397

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

Everything I've seen points to it only being particularly lethal to old people, not young. If this data is correct, not one kid under 9 has died from this.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Link

Here's another article.

NPR

 

I am furked

Edited by Armybrat
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Txzen

Txzen 514

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17 hours ago, Somnio said:

I hope so, too.  But isn't pretty much accepted as fact now this is much more serious than the common flu?  The flu has like a .01% kill rate.  

 

0.1, not 0.01. And the current mortality rate is likely low single-digit, unless you are elderly and in Wuhan. 

https://khn.org/news/facts-vs-fears-five-things-to-help-weigh-your-coronavirus-risk/

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

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1 hour ago, Txzen said:

0.1, not 0.01. And the current mortality rate is likely low single-digit, unless you are elderly and in Wuhan.

If the mortality rate of the coronavirus is 0.3-0.9%, it will be 3 to 9 times more lethal than the flu.

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Txzen

Txzen 514

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20 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If the mortality rate of the coronavirus is 0.3-0.9%, it will be 3 to 9 times more lethal than the flu.

You’re good with math. 
 

This is clearly a special and novel Coronavirus, and there is much we don’t know. I still think it’s hard to calculate the mortality rate as it stands now given the bulk of the data from where it emerged was likely impacted by the access to care (and how overwhelmed it became). We’ll know more I think from the experience with South Korea and Italy and other more developed areas as it continues to spread.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

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On 2/22/2020 at 11:09 AM, Brisketexan said:


None in particular. The girl picked a French program through her university (several outfits connected with the school). The boy went to a Gap Year program presentation, and was looking at one of those programs discussed there (but it was really pricey and hoity-toity, and not focused on language), so we used that as a jumping off point and looked at comparable programs. We’re looking at a multi-week program at a language school in Berlin.
Mom and I will be staying home this summer (just going to the beach a couple of weeks).

Can I be your kid?

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26866

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Well shit..... 

VIENNA (Reuters) - Austria has denied entry to a train from Italy on suspicion that two travellers might be infected with the coronavirus, the interior ministry said on Sunday. 

“Tonight a train on its way from Venice to Munich was stopped at the Austrian border,” the interior ministry said. 

The Italian State Railways had informed Austrian train operator OBB that there were two people with fever symptoms on the train, the ministry’s statement said. 

The train was now waiting at the Brenner Pass on Italian territory. “The further procedure is currently being discussed together with the Italian authorities.” 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-italy-austria/austria-stops-train-from-italy-due-to-suspected-coronavirus-infections-idUSKCN20H0RJ?il=0

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Txzen said:

You’re good with math. 
 

This is clearly a special and novel Coronavirus, and there is much we don’t know. I still think it’s hard to calculate the mortality rate as it stands now given the bulk of the data from where it emerged was likely impacted by the access to care (and how overwhelmed it became). We’ll know more I think from the experience with South Korea and Italy and other more developed areas as it continues to spread.

Yeah, I know that it should be obvious but... I can see people saying, oh the mortality rate isn't much higher than the flu. Those people are wrong: There is a huge difference between 0.1% and 0.6%. Plus, the duration and degree of sickness seems much worse than the flu: Actually, I can't say that this is true. If you take the average or mean, it is possible that there isn't much difference. However, it is obvious that for a good percentage of people the duration and degree of sickness is much worse than the flu. Admittedly, this is because the virus is de novo for the majority of the world (and could be for all the world if exposure to other coronaviruses doen't confer any degree of immunity against COVID-19). Nonetheless, the novelty of the virus provides no solace for those who are sick. Bottom line is that this virus sucks.

And as has been mentioned upthread, most people live paycheck to paycheck. It probably doesn't take a whole lot to throw lending institutions, hospitals, individuals, insurance companies and governments into financial crisis. And a worldwide recession isn't too hard to imagine. Not to be a doomsayer but the long drawn out progression of the disease could make things for the world worse rather than better because of thing economic impact. OTOH, if many countries can hold this thing back until the summer, the disease could disappear before the whole world is majorly affected.

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ABSR

ABSR 5369

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, NaTeWHO said:

Everything I've seen points to it only being particularly lethal to old people, not young. If this data is correct, not one kid under 9 has died from this.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Link

Here's another article.

NPR

 

So change the name to Logan’s Run virus?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90641

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, I know that it should be obvious but... I can see people saying, oh the mortality rate isn't much higher than the flu. Those people are wrong: There is a huge difference between 0.1% and 0.6%. Plus, the duration and degree of sickness seems much worse than the flu: Actually, I can't say that this is true. 

I feel like it's pretty safe to say it is - it's putting a whole helluva lot of people in the hospital for fairly long periods of time.  If you die, you could be in there an easy 7-14 days before death.  If you recover, some folks are requiring 2-3 weeks.  They are adding thousands of beds in short amounts of times and then immediately filling them up.

When flu season hits here, we don't have to add thousands of beds, and don't have a major chunk of people in the hospital for weeks on end.

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

And as has been mentioned upthread, most people live paycheck to paycheck. It probably doesn't take a whole lot to throw lending institutions, hospitals, individuals, insurance companies and governments into financial crisis. And a worldwide recession isn't too hard to imagine. Not to be a doomsayer but the long drawn out progression of the disease could make things for the world worse rather than better because of thing economic impact. OTOH, if many countries can hold this thing back until the summer, the disease could disappear before the whole world is majorly affected.

Yeah, economically, a lot of people would be fucked if they have to miss work due to quarantine or a 2-3 week illness (and they wouldn't be cleared until two weeks after they got their first negative test, so it could be an easy 5 weeks).

If this thing hits the US in a major way, it's going to expose a whole lot of problems with our society, and the way far too many Americans think.

My advice to a lot of folks in this thread - bring up the topic of the coronavirus with your friends, family, and especially neighbors, and ask how many are stockpiling food and the like.  Make a list of the folks who have stockpiles of food and other supplies, and buy some ski masks, so that you know who to raid/rob when the shit hits the fan.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90641

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, 4th_and_18 said:

Has a white person died from it yet?

Some old white people I believe.  With underlying conditions.  I'm assuming some of the Italians that died are...well, wait, do we consider Italians to be white?  Or even people?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90641

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Here's the first European victim.  Italian though, so see above.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-claims-first-european-victim-21552499

Quote

Mr Trevisan, from the village of Vo' Euganeo near Padua, had recovered some 10 days earlier from an unrelated health issue, Italy's health minister said.

As his health deteriorated earlier this week, he was admitted to hospital along with another person, aged 67, who had tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus.

The two men knew each other and used to play cards at the same cafes, Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reports.

 

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