Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14030]

28 minutes ago, Bevo said:

My maths are saying 3.3 million cases in the US as of today based on a worldwide mortality rate of 0.3%. Peak for the US will probably be around April 25. Things will then start looking better but will take another month and a half (beginning of June) to clear the hysteria and start the return to normalcy. Just to clarify, the peak will occur in different cities and states at different times. However, the overall peak for the country will be late April.

 

Its way more than that.  That isn't how the CDC would estimate it.  as contagious as this is reported to be 10M+ and probably closer to 15M(current + past) have been infected.  that is still less than 5% of the US pop.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

On 4/3/2020 at 8:36 PM, Onboard 2.0 said:

Had a virtual client meeting today. The husband has traveled all over the world for his career.

He said this is probably a  game changer for their company.  He said he doubts very seriously if they go back to the level of travel they were engaging in.  The dollars they save will be significant he said.  Not a good omen for the airline industry if his company is anything typical.

Eh, VC and virtual meetings are great and all, but face to face is still the best.  

[Zepol87 9171]

3 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Eh, VC and virtual meetings are great and all, but face to face is still the best.  

I have a 3rd interview tomorrow and have never had these not face to face.  Actually nervous thinking about it. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Eh, VC and virtual meetings are great and all, but face to face is still the best.  

Sure but you don't need a face to face for every meeting. That's what this guy said they were quickly finding out.  Initial consultations, key planning sessions, etc. yes. 

The dollars he says they're saving on air travel, time away from the office, and hotel costs are making them look at their process very closely.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/immunity-passports-can-they-end-uk-coronavirus-lockdown
 

This is going to be key.  Hope someone in this country is working on a plan.  

[brakeman 28228]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Regarding the felines catching corona, that’s fucking great news. My wife adopted a juvenile cat for my daughter on her birthday about 15 months ago, without telling me until the cat came through the threshold and the squealing 7 year old, apple-of-my-eye fell instantly in love. This fucking cat is insane. I come to our house in Houston each day from Galveston to work and focus, and he’s damned near stalking me. He’s terrifying unless I give him a bunch of affection while he’s isolated here without us.

Now, I’ve got a new plan. He’s my canary in the corona coal mine. I’m breathing and hacking into this fucker’s face until there’s a known treatment or cure. He’ll go ahead and let us know early. The cat version of “guess what!, motherfucker!”

wow. stupendous, please keep up to date. house cats could be the answer.

i really hope so too.

I will need to go down to the shelter tomorrow for my new little puusy cat.

 

[Zepol87 9171]

Today in Trumps press conference him and Dr. Fauci said the next week or 2 are gonna be really bad but that should be the peak (at least that was my interpretation but I had been drinking). What is that based on? Hopefully NYC is peaking but what about other states still behind?

 

Don't think this is a CR question 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Zepol87

[brakeman 28228]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Ignore him. He railed about anyone not wearing a mask for the last 3 months being a complete idiot, then admitted about 50 posts later that he’s only been wearing his for a month and a half. Therefore by his own metrics he is a fucking moron. 

put your mask on in public commerce settings and in transit.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

Just now, Zepol87 said:

Today in Trumps press conference him and Dr. Fauci said the next week or 2 are gonna be really bad but that should be the peak (at least that was my interpretation but I had been drinking). What is that based on? Hopefully NYC is peaking but what about other states still behind?

 

Don't think this is a CR question 

 

That’s a generic, across the board, peak mostly referring to major metros with population density, but random spots will flare up and peak at various other times.  

[Hanrahan 1306]

Well that's fucking terrifying

I didn’t look for the source but reddit is populated by 20 and 30-something’s diagnosed with depression and anxiety and convinced they also have cancer.

[Treefidy 1463]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

The Tx/La border shut down and 14 day quarantine is a true farce. Many people are coming across and working the next day (outages - turnarounds). 

complete joke 

Local news just showed footage of DPS stop along the east border, long line of RVs  trying to get into Texas 

fucked up situation either way you look at it.  Theres a price to pay for personal freedoms and we have been racking up quite a tab.  Looks like some of the swamp dwellers are skipping out on theirs and putting their drinks on our bill.  

[tx 3 putt 76314]

4 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Local news just showed footage of DPS stop along the east border, long line of RVs  trying to get into Texas 

 

it's all for show. 

[immortal13 4059]

You guys all need to chill the fuck out. It's not like the world is about to end....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh wait...

[Bevo 13525]

17 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

That’s a generic, across the board, peak mostly referring to major metros with population density, but random spots will flare up and peak at various other times.  

I can easily see the East Coast peaking in two weeks. Texas, California, the Southwest, and the Rocky Mountain states will peak later. Most Texans, myself included, think of it as that part of the country thinks that everything revolves around them. But scientists may be thinking solely that 40% of the US population lives on the East Coast.

[brakeman 28228]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

the real question is why wouldn't it be 100%?

why not sixty days ago?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 hours ago, Bevo said:

I can easily see the East Coast peaking in two weeks.  that part of the country thinks that everything revolves around them. But scientists may be thinking solely that 40% of the US population lives on the East Coast.

It's good to be da' king......

Edited April 6, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[bschoolprof 6232]

We have been relatively lucky in Texas thus far in not seeing too many serious cases and deaths.  This story below that ran in the Statesman a few days ago underscores how lucky we really are.  The gist: a photographer for the paper got sick with what should have been an obvious "red flag" for COVID to anyone with two brain cells.  Instead of testing her and treating her with some of the new drug cocktails and isolating her, our medical infrastructure let her get sicker and sicker and finally gave her a test on her FIFTH request some 9 days later.  Not shockingly, she had to be hospitalized.  Oh, and she went back to work after the initial symptoms but before hospitalization.  Perfect.   

I'd feel a lot better about this lockdown (which will have to end soon given the economic devastation that is unfolding) if we were using it to formulate some kind of plan that relied heavily on extensive testing and smart/efficient reaction thereto.  But I have a hard time believing that's going to happen.  

SIAP:

Quote

I know how to prepare for a disaster.

My first job as a photojournalist was in Florida, where on top of weathering hurricanes, I covered them. When the coronavirus began to get close to the United States, I thought I was ready. I had food, medicine and first-aid kits to get me through.

But nothing could have prepared me for the pandemic we’re now experiencing, including my own positive COVID-19 test.

A lot of people are blaming us, the media, saying we’re creating panic out of nothing. But that’s not true. This is a real crisis that is affecting the entire world. People tend not to believe what is really happening out there until they have someone close to them suffering the consequences. I wanted to share my story as a journalist and a human to show no one is exempt from this.

If they don’t believe the news, they should at least believe the people who are telling their own stories of suffering with this vicious illness. Even now, I’m dictating this from my hospital bed to a colleague who is helping me craft my story.

When the pandemic started to get serious in early March, my newspaper, the Austin American-Statesman, sent employees home. Reporters and editors set up new work spaces: commandeering kitchen tables, countertops and even back porches. But I’m a photographer, and we can’t work from home. Our place is out there, taking photos and videos of what is going on in the community. The closest thing we ever get to an office is our cars.

I was washing my hands raw, wiping down every surface I touched and never going to an assignment without my hand sanitizer. I wore a mask and gloves.

On March 19, I spent a few hours along Lady Bird Lake talking to the fitness enthusiasts who had flocked to the trail after local gyms shut their doors. They ran shoulder-to-shoulder and took turns using workout equipment in the park. I stood 6 feet away when I spoke with them and sanitized everything I could. But from there, things started to go downhill. That night I developed a fever of nearly 102 degrees, but in the morning it was gone. The next night, the fever came again, and suddenly the pain in my body was unbearable, as if a truck had hit me. Twice.

I still wanted to work, to document the unprecedented shutdown of our usually vibrant city. I spent three hours the next day, between midnight and 3 a.m., with no one around, documenting the shuttered storefronts of downtown Austin. The pain became excruciating. I knew something was wrong and wondered if I had the virus.

That weekend I began to develop a dry cough and decided to seek medical attention. A nurse at an urgent care clinic suggested I fill out an online medical questionnaire from Baylor Scott & White, which diagnosed me as having some type of viral infection. I asked to be tested for the coronavirus, but instead they prescribed me some medication to numb my throat and lungs and told me to take Tylenol and rest. They even suggested a spoonful of honey to soothe my throat.

After the weekend, I felt somewhat better, and because the doctors told me it was a common virus, I returned to work wearing a mask and gloves and kept distance from any subjects I photographed.

The night of March 24, the symptoms, especially my cough, started to get worse, to the point I could barely move throughout my apartment. Even going to the bathroom was a challenge; the shortest walk left me coughing uncontrollably and unable to catch my breath. I began to lose my sense of taste and smell. I texted my boss, and she told me to work from home. I stayed home working on a video, assisting other photographers by translating some interviews done in Spanish.

The next day, I was instructed via video chat to visit another clinic, where they would be able to X-ray my lungs and possibly test me for COVID-19. At the open-air clinic, a nurse said I still wasn’t meeting the criteria for a test, even though I had a history of asthma. She said they were reserving the limited supply of test kits for people older than 65 with severe medical conditions.

They sent me home with orders to take Tylenol and drink plenty of fluids, and they gave me an emergency inhaler to use as needed.

But at home, things got worse. My coughing fits would last 10 to 15 minutes. I began to lose weight because I had no appetite. My chest was in absolute pain. Sometimes I was coughing to the point that I was crying and vomiting. I felt as if my chest, head and eyes were going to explode.

I hardly moved for the next few days. Though my fever had subsided, my respiratory symptoms were getting worse. I slept for 12 hours a night. I lost 4 pounds in 10 days.

On March 28, I tried the digital questionnaire again with Baylor Scott & White but was again denied the test. They diagnosed me with acute bacterial sinusitis, gave me a prescription for an antibiotic and suggested more rest.

Nothing helped. I took puffs of my inhaler every 10 minutes, even though it’s only intended to be used twice a day. I needed help.

I hadn’t left my apartment since March 25, but on Tuesday, I made my fifth attempt to get tested. At an open-air clinic, the nurses said my vital signs were out of control. I couldn’t stop coughing. They wanted to call an ambulance to take me to the emergency room, but I couldn’t afford the added cost. I drove myself to the emergency room of St. David’s South Austin Medical Center.

On the way, I called my sister Laura, who lives in Florida. We were both crying. When I got to the ER, they were waiting for me.

As the doctors began to attend to me, I couldn’t help but think, “This is it.” My chest was completely shut down, my body going numb from low oxygen levels. I felt as if an elephant were sitting on my chest. That moment was absolutely terrifying. I truly believed I was about to die.

They stabilized me quickly and said they would try to test me. But an hour later, they said I couldn’t get a test. They wanted to send me home — for the fifth time. I was exhausted, both mentally and physically, but I didn’t budge. Eventually, they agreed to test me, which requires someone shoving a long cotton swab deep into my nose to reach the back of my throat. I cried out in pain when they did it.

The next morning, the test came back positive.

I’m normally a healthy 42-year-old. I run at least 6 miles every day, take good care of myself and don’t smoke. As a photojournalist, I consider it my duty to run toward the fire, rather than away from it, but my colleagues and I have put ourselves at grave risk to document what is happening to our town.

I know medical personnel are doing everything they can to help, but this crisis is serious, it’s real, and it’s going to affect all of us. The stories the doctors and nurses are telling are important, too. As they urge us all to stay home, I do, too. Take care of yourself, take care of those at home with you, and take care of everybody else around you.

This virus is killing people of all ages, not only sick and old people. You might think you are not at risk, but you won’t know until you are in a hospital fighting for your life.

Lola Gomez is a photojournalist with the American-Statesman.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200403/my-job-was-to-cover-coronavirus-pandemic-until-i-became-part-of-it

[brakeman 28228]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

My maths are saying 3.3 million cases in the US as of today based on a worldwide mortality rate of 0.3%. Peak for the US will probably be around April 25. Things will then start looking better but will take another month and a half (beginning of June) to clear the hysteria and start the return to normalcy. Just to clarify, the peak will occur in different cities and states at different times. However, the overall peak for the country will be late April.

 

i wanna believe.

[Hate 20103]

58 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

I have a 3rd interview tomorrow and have never had these not face to face.  Actually nervous thinking about it. 

I had 3 interviews for the gig I just started, and all were over the phones.  you'll be fine. Now on-boarding??  That's going to be weird.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I can easily see the East Coast peaking in two weeks. Texas, California, the Southwest, and the Rocky Mountain states will peak later. Most Texans, myself included, think of it as that part of the country thinks that everything revolves around them. But scientists may be thinking solely that 40% of the US population lives on the East Coast.

Yep, it's all on a rolling basis and you certainly can't take that estimate as gospel, especially for 'other' parts of the country.  They seem to be referring to mostly the east coast and Chicago, plus other parts of the midwest that fit well into that timeline. 

[Hate 20103]

6 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

We have been relatively lucky in Texas thus far in not seeing too many serious cases and deaths.  This story below that ran in the Statesman a few days ago underscores how lucky we really are.  The gist: a photographer for the paper got sick with what should have been an obvious "red flag" for COVID to anyone with two brain cells.  Instead of testing her and treating her with some of the new drug cocktails and isolating her, our medical infrastructure let her get sicker and sicker and finally gave her a test on her FIFTH request some 9 days later.  Not shockingly, she had to be hospitalized.  Oh, and she went back to work after the initial symptoms but before hospitalization.  Perfect.   

I'd feel a lot better about this lockdown (which will have to end soon given the economic devastation that is unfolding) if we were using it to formulate some kind of plan that relied heavily on extensive testing and smart/efficient reaction thereto.  But I have a hard time believing that's going to happen.  

 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200403/my-job-was-to-cover-coronavirus-pandemic-until-i-became-part-of-it

We still have 4 weeks before a "plan" really has to be announced.  This is being worked regardless if thay day is May 4, June 1, or ,July 1.

[bigcigar 1161]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

I had 3 interviews for the gig I just started, and all were over the phones.  you'll be fine. Now on-boarding??  That's going to be weird.

 

On boarding might be smooth, but going into the office a month after you start will be weird. Like who the fuck let that asshole in

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

If only we had a disaster scientist to guide us through the current pandemic.

[Brisketexan 104559]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/immunity-passports-can-they-end-uk-coronavirus-lockdown
 
This is going to be key.  Hope someone in this country is working on a plan.  

Yes. I’m sure that will be coming along right after they wrap up the plan for the Brisket-Sela Ward-Hayley Atwell threesome. Any day now....

[Hanrahan 1306]

We have been relatively lucky in Texas thus far in not seeing too many serious cases and deaths.  This story below that ran in the Statesman a few days ago underscores how lucky we really are.  The gist: a photographer for the paper got sick with what should have been an obvious "red flag" for COVID to anyone with two brain cells.  Instead of testing her and treating her with some of the new drug cocktails and isolating her, our medical infrastructure let her get sicker and sicker and finally gave her a test on her FIFTH request some 9 days later.  Not shockingly, she had to be hospitalized.  Oh, and she went back to work after the initial symptoms but before hospitalization.  Perfect.   
I'd feel a lot better about this lockdown (which will have to end soon given the economic devastation that is unfolding) if we were using it to formulate some kind of plan that relied heavily on extensive testing and smart/efficient reaction thereto.  But I have a hard time believing that's going to happen.  
SIAP:

I know how to prepare for a disaster.

My first job as a photojournalist was in Florida, where on top of weathering hurricanes, I covered them. When the coronavirus began to get close to the United States, I thought I was ready. I had food, medicine and first-aid kits to get me through.

But nothing could have prepared me for the pandemic we’re now experiencing, including my own positive COVID-19 test.

A lot of people are blaming us, the media, saying we’re creating panic out of nothing. But that’s not true. This is a real crisis that is affecting the entire world. People tend not to believe what is really happening out there until they have someone close to them suffering the consequences. I wanted to share my story as a journalist and a human to show no one is exempt from this.

If they don’t believe the news, they should at least believe the people who are telling their own stories of suffering with this vicious illness. Even now, I’m dictating this from my hospital bed to a colleague who is helping me craft my story.

When the pandemic started to get serious in early March, my newspaper, the Austin American-Statesman, sent employees home. Reporters and editors set up new work spaces: commandeering kitchen tables, countertops and even back porches. But I’m a photographer, and we can’t work from home. Our place is out there, taking photos and videos of what is going on in the community. The closest thing we ever get to an office is our cars.

I was washing my hands raw, wiping down every surface I touched and never going to an assignment without my hand sanitizer. I wore a mask and gloves.

On March 19, I spent a few hours along Lady Bird Lake talking to the fitness enthusiasts who had flocked to the trail after local gyms shut their doors. They ran shoulder-to-shoulder and took turns using workout equipment in the park. I stood 6 feet away when I spoke with them and sanitized everything I could. But from there, things started to go downhill. That night I developed a fever of nearly 102 degrees, but in the morning it was gone. The next night, the fever came again, and suddenly the pain in my body was unbearable, as if a truck had hit me. Twice.

I still wanted to work, to document the unprecedented shutdown of our usually vibrant city. I spent three hours the next day, between midnight and 3 a.m., with no one around, documenting the shuttered storefronts of downtown Austin. The pain became excruciating. I knew something was wrong and wondered if I had the virus.

That weekend I began to develop a dry cough and decided to seek medical attention. A nurse at an urgent care clinic suggested I fill out an online medical questionnaire from Baylor Scott & White, which diagnosed me as having some type of viral infection. I asked to be tested for the coronavirus, but instead they prescribed me some medication to numb my throat and lungs and told me to take Tylenol and rest. They even suggested a spoonful of honey to soothe my throat.

After the weekend, I felt somewhat better, and because the doctors told me it was a common virus, I returned to work wearing a mask and gloves and kept distance from any subjects I photographed.

The night of March 24, the symptoms, especially my cough, started to get worse, to the point I could barely move throughout my apartment. Even going to the bathroom was a challenge; the shortest walk left me coughing uncontrollably and unable to catch my breath. I began to lose my sense of taste and smell. I texted my boss, and she told me to work from home. I stayed home working on a video, assisting other photographers by translating some interviews done in Spanish.

The next day, I was instructed via video chat to visit another clinic, where they would be able to X-ray my lungs and possibly test me for COVID-19. At the open-air clinic, a nurse said I still wasn’t meeting the criteria for a test, even though I had a history of asthma. She said they were reserving the limited supply of test kits for people older than 65 with severe medical conditions.

They sent me home with orders to take Tylenol and drink plenty of fluids, and they gave me an emergency inhaler to use as needed.

But at home, things got worse. My coughing fits would last 10 to 15 minutes. I began to lose weight because I had no appetite. My chest was in absolute pain. Sometimes I was coughing to the point that I was crying and vomiting. I felt as if my chest, head and eyes were going to explode.

I hardly moved for the next few days. Though my fever had subsided, my respiratory symptoms were getting worse. I slept for 12 hours a night. I lost 4 pounds in 10 days.

On March 28, I tried the digital questionnaire again with Baylor Scott & White but was again denied the test. They diagnosed me with acute bacterial sinusitis, gave me a prescription for an antibiotic and suggested more rest.

Nothing helped. I took puffs of my inhaler every 10 minutes, even though it’s only intended to be used twice a day. I needed help.

I hadn’t left my apartment since March 25, but on Tuesday, I made my fifth attempt to get tested. At an open-air clinic, the nurses said my vital signs were out of control. I couldn’t stop coughing. They wanted to call an ambulance to take me to the emergency room, but I couldn’t afford the added cost. I drove myself to the emergency room of St. David’s South Austin Medical Center.

On the way, I called my sister Laura, who lives in Florida. We were both crying. When I got to the ER, they were waiting for me.

As the doctors began to attend to me, I couldn’t help but think, “This is it.” My chest was completely shut down, my body going numb from low oxygen levels. I felt as if an elephant were sitting on my chest. That moment was absolutely terrifying. I truly believed I was about to die.

They stabilized me quickly and said they would try to test me. But an hour later, they said I couldn’t get a test. They wanted to send me home — for the fifth time. I was exhausted, both mentally and physically, but I didn’t budge. Eventually, they agreed to test me, which requires someone shoving a long cotton swab deep into my nose to reach the back of my throat. I cried out in pain when they did it.

The next morning, the test came back positive.

I’m normally a healthy 42-year-old. I run at least 6 miles every day, take good care of myself and don’t smoke. As a photojournalist, I consider it my duty to run toward the fire, rather than away from it, but my colleagues and I have put ourselves at grave risk to document what is happening to our town.

I know medical personnel are doing everything they can to help, but this crisis is serious, it’s real, and it’s going to affect all of us. The stories the doctors and nurses are telling are important, too. As they urge us all to stay home, I do, too. Take care of yourself, take care of those at home with you, and take care of everybody else around you.

This virus is killing people of all ages, not only sick and old people. You might think you are not at risk, but you won’t know until you are in a hospital fighting for your life.

Lola Gomez is a photojournalist with the American-Statesman.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200403/my-job-was-to-cover-coronavirus-pandemic-until-i-became-part-of-it

Hey man, get you a medical degree of some kind or something. Invent some tests. You can do better than these guys!

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

IHME updated their graph today


Total US deaths drop about 13k




https://covid19.healthdata.org/


Peak in 10 days

NY peaks in 4 days at 865 deaths

[Js1 85095]

22 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

On boarding might be smooth, but going into the office a month after you start will be weird. Like who the fuck let that asshole in

We’ve hired like 4 people and I will not meet any of them until May maybe? 

[Texas Jeff 1932]

15 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

IHME updated their graph today

Total US deaths drop about 13k

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Peak in 10 days

NY peaks in 4 days at 865 deaths

The numbers look a lot better for Texas, we don't come close to running out of ICU beds or hospital beds in their new model.  The old model had a ICU shortage for about two weeks in mid-April.  The peak for Texas was pulled in from around May 5th to April 19th and the tail going into May is shorter.  Great news!

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

Yes. I’m sure that will be coming along right after they wrap up the plan for the Brisket-Sela Ward-Hayley Atwell threesome. Any day now....

Note to self.....let's make sure we film this.



It's for the ledge.

[Zepol87 9171]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I had 3 interviews for the gig I just started, and all were over the phones.  you'll be fine. Now on-boarding??  That's going to be weird.

 

Might luck out with no drug test right now lol.

 

Thanks for the vote of confidence 

[Hate 20103]

Might luck out with no drug test right now lol.
 
Thanks for the vote of confidence 

Well, I was legitimately clean. YMMV.

[Uncle Boobs 1245]

When did Burger King fry cooks start requiring 3 interviews?

[Homesickhorn 2202]

16 hours ago, G650 said:

Its Rex and Slorch arguing

Oh Christ on a bike.

[Zepol87 9171]

14 minutes ago, Uncle Boobs said:

When did Burger King fry cooks start requiring 3 interviews?

Not sure 

[immortal13 4059]

37 minutes ago, Uncle Boobs said:

When did Burger King fry cooks start requiring 3 interviews?

Just ask your dad

[justhookit 4178]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

I can easily see the East Coast peaking in two weeks. Texas, California, the Southwest, and the Rocky Mountain states will peak later. Most Texans, myself included, think of it as that part of the country thinks that everything revolves around them. But scientists may be thinking solely that 40% of the US population lives on the East Coast.

 

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep, it's all on a rolling basis and you certainly can't take that estimate as gospel, especially for 'other' parts of the country.  They seem to be referring to mostly the east coast and Chicago, plus other parts of the midwest that fit well into that timeline. 

Peak, ok. But doesn’t it look like Texas, Cali, etc. are seeing more of a gradual upslope, not the horrible spike N.Y. got (fu Florida and Louisiana)? We are going on close to 3 weeks of social distancing / stay at home. We are fucked if we are still going up a few weeks from now.

[staboner 4957]

2 hours ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

If only we had a disaster scientist to guide us through the current pandemic.

[Digdogger 1343]

4 hours ago, Uncle Boobs said:

When did Burger King fry cooks start requiring 3 interviews?

It’s a Burger King/Taco Bell/KFC

[Bevo 13525]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

 

Peak, ok. But doesn’t it look like Texas, Cali, etc. are seeing more of a gradual upslope, not the horrible spike N.Y. got (fu Florida and Louisiana)? We are going on close to 3 weeks of social distancing / stay at home. We are fucked if we are still going up a few weeks from now.

If we end quarantines early, then we will see a rapid rise soon after. Using the media's new favorite term, herd immunity will not occur until greater than 50% of the population is infected.

According to a well known Harvard epidemiologist, COVID19's rate of spread is higher than that of the ordinary flu, but similar to that of novel emergent influenzas that have occasionally swept the globe before. “That is similar to pandemic flu of 1918, and it implies that the end of this epidemic is going to require nearly 50% of the population to be immune, either from a vaccine, which is not on the immediate horizon, or from natural infection".

That is based on an R0 between 2 and 2.5. However, if the coronavirus spreads more easily than the experts think and has an R0 of 3, then 66% off the population will need to get the disease before herd immunity is reached.

But one of the factors contributing to R0 is the contact rate of the disease. If a person who’s infected with a contagious disease comes into contact with many people who aren’t infected or vaccinated, the disease will spread more quickly. If that person remains at home, in a hospital, or otherwise quarantined while they’re contagious, the disease will spread more slowly. So in theory, summer will help lower the contact rate as will having some baseline immunity due to a percentage of the population having already been exposed.

For the SARS pandemic in 2003, scientists estimated the original R0 to be around 2.75. A month or two later, the effective R0 dropped below 1, thanks to the tremendous effort that went into intervention strategies, including isolation and quarantine activities.

The bottom line is that quarantines will have to stay in place because herd immunity will not have been achieved. But the upside is that the spread will slow and keep our hospitals from being overrun. This will allow for more people to be treated and thus reduce the number of people dying of this infection. Also, hopefully we will have lowered the R0 to where herd immunity occurs with a smaller number of people being infected. This would mean a slower disease transmission rate that will allow time for vaccines and therapies to be developed.

[Iceman 2639]

BK isn't part of Yum Brands.

[SydneyCarton 47847]

6 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Aka Yum Brands from... 

Kentucky.

 

1 minute ago, Iceman said:

BK isn't part of Yum Brands.

Yeah, yum brands owns Taco Bell, and I think Popeyes? Burger King is something else. 

[Iceman 2639]

Yum brands is Taco bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Wing Street.

BK and popeyes is Restaurant Brands international, or RBI

Edited April 6, 2020 by Iceman

[EuroHorn 3204]

Interesting take on the CDC data

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/05/could-cdc-data-prove-covid-19-infections-in-november-2019/
 

Quote

• Data shows a dramatic spike in “Influenza Like Illness” in certain states as early as November of 2019
• A number of states appear to have already experienced an ILI and made it through to a more stable ILI footing for this time of year
• The US Military participated in the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan, China between October 18 and October 27 of 2019. Their chartered flights arrive and depart from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. 
• Washington is one of the earliest states to show a spike in ILI, corresponding with the incubation period should the virus have been introduced as the military traveled through Washington to other destinations. 

 

Quote

Texas experienced an unusually high number of ILI reports beginning in November of 2019. While some of these cases were positive influenza cases, the large majority were negative for flu. For example, for the weeks between 11/16/19 and 12/28/19 the CDC received information for 35,897 tests performed to identify flu. Of those, only 10,471 were positive for any variant of the flu; 25,156 of those tests did not find flu virus of any variant. There were no available tests at this time for COVID-19, nor was it identified in the general population of the United States.

If you keep analyzing the chart, you’ll see that it appears Texas “peaked” in Week 5 of 2020, saw a small bump in the beginning of March (likely because of awareness of COVID-19 and more trips to the doctor.) and then has begun to level off. The “high point” of ILI in Texas was in Week 51 of 2019- NOT now in March and April.

Video of the analysis 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by EuroHorn

[SHOOTER12 8788]

In reference to masks, I remembered Saturday that I had bought masks of some kind last summer to wear while I mowed.  I had no idea what kind they were, only that they were the only ones available at the time and not the cheapies I usually buy.  Sure enough, went out to the garage and found out I had N95 masks in my tool chest.  While certainly not a "stockpile" we do have enough to get us by for at least a while.

[NorthLoop 14083]

Interesting.... or bullshit.. not sure. Let's get those fuckin antibody tests rollin out. 

[tantric superman 4667]

47 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet.

BK is a stand alone I think...

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

9 hours ago, Hanrahan said:

I didn’t look for the source but reddit is populated by 20 and 30-something’s diagnosed with depression and anxiety and convinced they also have cancer.

What?  I thought it was populated by women of different ages who had “gone wild.”  
 

[heso 2748]

8 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

IHME updated their graph today


Total US deaths drop about 13k




https://covid19.healthdata.org/


Peak in 10 days

NY peaks in 4 days at 865 deaths

Some interesting things in the update. Peak deaths revised upward from somewhere in the 2k range to 3130 but total deaths revised down from 93k to 81k. A number of states have had their peak hospital utilization cut way back. Seems to imply that shit is bad in a few places but overall the sheltering in place is working.

Virginia’s expected peak moved from may 20th to April 20th. 

 

 

[Fat Bastard 593]

12 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you likely did to put yourself in this position and reminds you of the low percentage of patients who make it off the ventilator alive. As you begin to drift out of consciousness he whispers in your ear, “ballgame”.

From what I’ve been able to gather, he’s not an MD but likely a CRNA. At my hospital, and most good hospitals, they’re not allowed to intubate. They only manage the vent once the patient is intubated by the attending anesthesiologist. Now, if he works at some shitty ass community hospital, all bets are off. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

21 minutes ago, heso said:

Some interesting things in the update. Peak deaths revised upward from somewhere in the 2k range to 3130 but total deaths revised down from 93k to 81k. A number of states have had their peak hospital utilization cut way back. Seems to imply that shit is bad in a few places but overall the sheltering in place is working.

Virginia’s expected peak moved from may 20th to April 20th. 

 

 

Another interesting data point is that I have already gotten this response from two family members:

“How can moving the peak closer in time be good when we were trying to flatten the curve and spread things out?  I thought we wanted the peak to be as late as possible?”

”We won’t run out of beds” just blew right past them.